Rays More Likely To Move Reliever Than Add Bat
The Rays, who currently sit six and a half games back in the AL East, are receiving significant interest in their top relievers and could move one of Brad Boxberger, Jake McGee or Kevin Jepsen even if they remain in contention, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Meanwhile, veterans such as David DeJesus and John Jaso could also be available in the coming week, reports SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo, who also lists Jepsen as one of the team’s likeliest trade pieces.
Boxberger will likely be the team’s most sought after trade chip and will have the highest price in a trade, Topkin writes, though he notes that McGee is become pricey, at least by the Rays’ standards. Jepsen though, is the likeliest trade candidate among Rays relievers, according to Topkin, as his salary will get a notable bump this winter, and he’s eligible for free agency following the 2016 season. Cotillo also lists Jepsen among the team’s likeliest pieces to move. (He notes, as well, that starters Erasmo Ramirez, Nate Karns and Alex Colome are drawing interest, but the Rays aren’t inclined to deal from their rotation.)
For the Rays to part with Boxberger, one would have to imagine a fairly sizable haul. The 27-year-old came to the Rays along with Logan Forsythe in the trade that sent Jesse Hahn and Alex Torres to the Padres, and he’s been dominant since his acquisition. (He was quite good in San Diego as well.) Boxberger cemented himself as the Rays’ top setup man in 2014, and when McGee required offseason elbow surgery, Boxberger separated himself from the pack to lock down the closer’s role early in the season as McGee recovered. Over the past two years, he’s notched an excellent 2.67 ERA with 13.2 K/9, 3.4 BB/9 and a ground-ball rate a bit north of 40 percent.
In addition to Boxberger’s excellent results, he’s also controllable through the 2019 season, so any team picking him up would be doing so for another four and a half seasons. The former No. 43 overall pick won’t even be eligible for arbitration until after the 2016 season, so it’s easy to see why the Rays would place the highest price tag on Boxberger, whose salary should remain near the league minimum in 2016 and at least manageable for the Rays in 2017.
McGee, on the other hand, is already earning $3.55MM and has been nothing short of dominant since returning from the disabled list. Boxberger has remained the closer for most of the season, which will serve to limit McGee’s forthcoming arbitration raise to some extent, but the hard-throwing lefty still has plenty of holds and strikeouts this season that will come into play in such talks. In fact, McGee has allowed just four runs (three earned) all season long, and each of those runs came in one lone disastrous outing. He’s rattled off 20 consecutive scoreless appearances — a span of 19 1/3 innings in which he’s posted a 25-to-3 K/BB ratio.
As for Jepsen, he’s delivered strong bottom-line results since being acquired from the Angels in exchange for Matt Joyce (who has struggled in his new surroundings), but his peripheral stats have also taken a step back. Both his strikeout and walk rates are among the worst of his career, and while his 94.4 mph average fastball is strong, it’s down more than a full mile per hour when compared to his 2014 velocity. His swinging strike rate is down nearly three percent from 2014 as well.
Jepsen’s earning $3.025MM in 2015 and will get a raise this winter, so perhaps the Rays, faced with the possibility of paying a pair of relievers something in the vicinity of $5MM apiece, the team’s preference is to unload one of them right now. If that’s the case, moving Jepsen would be less detrimental to their 2015 chances than moving the more dominant and more controllable McGee.
Getting back to DeJesus and Jaso, both left-handed veterans are hitting reasonably well, though Jaso has spent most of the season on the disabled list. Each is a platoon player, with DeJesus having received just nine plate appearances against lefties all year. DeJesus has hit righties at a .270/.336/.395 clip, though, and he has a history of performing well when holding the platoon advantage. His contract contains a $5MM option for the 2016 season, so any team that picks him up could benefit from his services beyond this year.
Jaso only recently returned from a left wrist injury, but he’s shown no signs of ill effects at the plate. He’s mashed at a .359/.435/.538 clip thus far, and while that type of production clearly isn’t sustainable, Jaso has a very nice track record against right-handed pitching. He’s a career .275/.370/.428 hitter against righties and could help any club in need of help in that area. Jaso’s been a catcher for most of his career, but the Rays have used him at DH and in left field this year, as he does have multiple concussions in his past. He’s making $3.175MM in 2015 and is a free agent at the end of the year.
Earlier this week, Peter Gammons reported that there were as many as 16 clubs looking for bullpen help, so the Rays will have no shortage of trade partners. The Blue Jays, in particular, have been known to be hot after relief help. That’s also said to be the Twins’ top priority, and given the fact that Minnesota has an up-and-coming young core, adding a controllable arm such as McGee or Boxberger to supplement that group could hold appeal to them. The Pirates are reportedly working on a trade for a relief arm right now, with the other team in the mix not yet known. Jeff Todd and I discussed a number of AL teams looking to add relief help on yesterday’s podcast.
2016 Competitive Balance Lottery Results
The Reds have drawn the first competitive balance selection in the 2016 draft, as Cash Kruth of MLB.com reports. While the precise draft slots remain to be determined, Cincinnati will pick after the conclusion of the first round (including compensation choices).
Here is the order of the selections, which were determined by lottery between the clubs that fell among the ten smallest markets and/or the ten smallest revenue pools league-wide. Other teams that participate in revenue sharing are also eligible, but only for the second round.
Round A (selections occur after first round)
1. Reds
2. Athletics
3. Rockies
4. Diamondbacks
5. Marlins
6. Pirates
Round B (selections occur after second round)
1. Padres
2. Indians
3. Twins
4. Brewers
5. Orioles
6. Rays
These results mean that the Cardinals, Royals, and Mariners failed to receive a pick despite being eligible. With some restrictions, the picks can be traded — and increasingly have been in recent seasons. You can take a look at this year’s draft results and slot values to get an idea of the range of selections (and drafted players) that the most recent competitive balance awards ultimately represented.
East Notes: Mets, Zobrist, Smoker, Jays, Papelbon, Red Sox, Smyly
Here’s the latest out of baseball’s eastern divisions:
- New York remains in contact with the Athletics on the versatile Ben Zobrist, Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News reports. The fit is obvious, and the teams have long said to be in contact, but Ackert says that things have progressed to the point that Oakland has made a specific prospect ask. Nevertheless, no deal is imminent, per the report.
- The Mets are loath to part with outfielder Michael Conforto or shortstop Amed Rosario to add a bat, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com hears (Twitter link), echoing a recent report. But the team is still certainly after a hitter, as Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com tweets that Michael Cuddyer‘s injury situation has led to a “seismic[] shift[]” in the ballclub’s deadline approach. We had heard earlier in the summer that the team was interested in offense even before Cuddyer’s knee troubles worsened, but at the time the focus seemed more on the infield.
- Lefty Josh Smoker has opened eyes in the Mets organization, Mike Puma of the New York Post notes on Twitter. The 26-year-old was a first-round pick of the Nationals, but never gained much traction. Now, he’s said to be bringing big heat at Double-A and could be a candidate to see time in the New York pen.
- The Blue Jays are primarily focused on adding a starter and are not presently discussing reliever Jonathan Papelbon with the Phillies, Heyman adds on Twitter. It could be that Toronto is allowing the development of its rotation plans drive the bus on whether (and how) it acts on the relief market.
- The Red Sox have already made some moves focused on giving MLB time to younger players, notes Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald, who argues that Boston ought to do more of the same the rest of the way. One forward-looking deadline move, says Lauber, would be to resume pursuit of Cole Hamels, who per the report would not be inclined to trigger his no-trade clause just because an acquiring team is not in contention.
- Rays lefty Drew Smyly is making good on reports indicating that he’d try to throw again, as Josh Vitale of the Charlotte Sun reports (Twitter links). After emerging from a 40-pitch live BP feeling well, Smyly says he’s hopeful of beginning a rehab stint soon. It remains to be seen how long he’ll take to work back to the big leagues, particularly with Tampa Bay likely to exercise quite a bit of caution with an important asset.
AL East Deadline Notes: Jays, Sox, Yankees, Rays
Blue Jays fans are watching the coming trade deadline with as much anticipation as any group of supporters, as GM Alex Anthopoulos has spoken quite a bit about the club’s intention to look hard at making impactful additions. As Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca writes, it’s worth considering the club’s summer trade history both to gain some insight into how the organization operates and to better appreciate the reasonable expectations. Toronto faces a “tricky time,” says Davidi, who provides a lengthy overview of past deals. Likewise, Tim Britton of the Providence Journal breaks down the recent deadline work of Red Sox GM Ben Cherington, who faces tough questions as his club has stumbled coming out of the All-Star break.
Here’s more from the AL East:
- Yankees GM Brian Cashman indicated that he does not expect to strike a major deal this summer, as Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News reports. “I would predict it more likely not doing anything than doing something significant,” Cashman said. “We’re making our phone calls, talking to all clubs involved. We’ve practically analyzed everything.” In addition to citing his belief in the club’s current options, Cashman said that the “the acquisition costs might be prohibitive or that unicorn might not exist.”
- Going into further detail, Cashman indicated that the Yankees are unlikely to go get a big-time arm to add to their staff, as Feinsand further reports. “Are there available starters that are better? Yes, but the acquisitions cost are certain players that I have no intention of moving at this stage,” Cashman said. “I would say the smarter play would be to hold off on shooting any of those particular bullets.”
- Neither do the Yankees seem likely to be aggressive in attempting to upgrade at second base. Cashman said that the infield market was particularly thin, noting that it was hard even to identify available options that could theoretically provide better production than incumbent Stephen Drew. Cashman also addressed the decision to send down young second baseman Rob Refsnyder, saying he preferred that approach to designating another player for assignment. “I can get Refsnyder back,” he said. “As we approach the trade deadline, I think it’s better to have all assets in play to give us as much flexibility as we can have.”
- Rays owner Stuart Sternberg indicated that his club will also likely rely primarily on internal options rather than making a deadline splash, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. “People say, ‘Buyer? Seller?’ It will be no different than we’ve done in years past,” said Sternberg. “I think we’re in almost precisely the same spot we’ve been in every year since ’08. Which is, we’re close, we feel we have a really good team. We’d like to see our team on the field all at once. And we’ll try to be opportunistic.” Though the team has obviously scuffled of late, and will be prepared to sell if it falls too far back, the Tampa Bay owner said he hopes to remain in contention and believes the current roster is good enough — especially with players returning from injury — to stay in the mix.
Rays’ Second-Round Pick Betts Requires Tommy John
JULY 18: Betts will require Tommy John surgery, reports MLB.com’s Bill Chastain (via Twitter). As Law notes (also on Twitter), there were some rumors circulating prior to the draft that Betts had an issue in his throwing elbow, which would explain the reason that he slipped to the mid-second round despite being regarded as one of the best catching prospects in this year’s draft.
Betts becomes the second top pick in the past 24 hours to require Tommy John surgery, as Dodgers first-rounder Walker Buehler, who signed yesterday shortly before the deadline, also reportedly needs the operation. Of course, the two will have different paths to recovery; Betts is a catcher while Buehler is a pitcher.
JULY 16: The Rays have agreed to terms with second-round selection Chris Betts, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). ESPN’s Keith Law reports (on Twitter) that Betts will receive a $1.485MM signing bonus, which comes in above his No. 52 slot’s value of $1,160,500. Betts, a high school catcher out of California, is being advised by MVP Sports Group.
Yesterday, MLB.com’s Jim Callis wrote that Betts had first-round aspirations entering the draft and, as such, may have had a higher price tag than his slot, which now looks to indeed be the case. Even by going over slot for Betts, however, the Rays will avoid forfeiting a future first-round pick as well as incurring any luxury taxes on the deal. As Callis noted, the team had saved $448K on other picks, so Betts’ additional $324,500 will keep the Rays in the confines of their allotted pool.
Heading into the draft, Betts rated 16th on the respective rankings of ESPN’s Keith Law and Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel. Callis and MLB.com colleague Jonathan Mayo ranked Betts 25th, and the staff at Baseball America ranked him 28th on their Top 500.
In his writeup, Law noted that fellow prep catcher Tyler Stephenson had more impressive all-around tools, but Betts is presently a more advanced hitter/receiver. Both Law and McDaniel note similarities between Betts and Brian McCann — a bat-first catcher — though clearly there’s a long way to go before Betts realizes that type of ceiling. Callis and Mayo note that he makes consistently hard contact with a left-handed swing that can eventually produce above-average power, and he’s slimmed down this year. BA writes that his receiving improved this offseason after working out with Twins catcher Kurt Suzuki (coincidentally, a teammate of Aaron Hicks — another first-rounder to come out of Betts’ Woodrow Wilson High School).
Now that Betts has come to terms with the Rays, seven players selected in the top two rounds remain unsigned. Most notable of course, is No. 1 overall selection Dansby Swanson, although there’s been little to indicate that the D-Backs are in serious jeopardy of not signing the Vanderbilt shortstop. Others that have yet to sign include Dodgers’ top picks Walker Buehler (No. 24) and Kyle Funkhouser (No. 35); Brewers Competitive Balance (A) pick Nathan Kirby (No. 40); Blue Jays second-rounder Brady Singer (No. 56); Orioles second-rounder Jonathan Hughes (No. 68); and Twins Competitive Balance (B) pick Kyle Cody (No. 73).
Quick Hits: Astros, Expansion, Ballparks, Draft
Speaking to the press at the All-Star game, union chief Tony Clark addressed the question whether the Astros computer hacking scandal may have impacted the club’s free agent efforts last winter, as Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reports. It doesn’t sound as if Clark has any particular concern in that regard, though he emphasized that he would wait to pass judgment until the investigation is completed. “We have bits and pieces and some understanding,” he said, “but at this point in time, from what we understand, that concern [of market manipulation] isn’t there. Doesn’t mean it may not be there when all is said and done, based on the information we get, but right now it’s not there.”
- Commissioner Rob Manfred also spoke with reporters, of course, and mentioned that he was open to the concept of expanding the league’s number of teams, as ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick writes. “Maybe one of the reasons I got this job is, I’m bullish on this game,” Manfred said. “I think we are a growth business, broadly defined. And over an extended period of time, growth businesses look to get bigger. So yeah, I’m open to the idea that there will be a point in time where expansion may be possible.”
- Of course, any idea of expansion is likely a fair ways off, and there are more pressing franchise issues in the near-term — particularly, the stadium concerns of the Rays and Athletics. Manfred said that the league remains optimistic that neither team will need to move, but did indicate that his office was planning to look into new cities as alternatives. Per Manfred, MLB will “examine [new markets’] viability, think about what we can do to make them more viable, so that we have business alternatives that are available to us.”
- The draft is always exciting, but it can be hard to contextualize the players chosen. Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper took a preliminary stab at placing recently-picked players alongside existing prospects, in a reader Q&A. All said, he only sees about a half dozen players from this year’s class warranting consideration among the top-fifty prospects league-wide, with top picks like Brendan Rodgers, Dansby Swanson, Dillon Tate, and Alex Bregman likely falling “in that 20-35 range.”
- We are, of course, coming down to the wire on draft signings. Players must agree to terms by Friday afternoon. The first overall selection, Swanson, has yet to sign, although most reports indicate that a deal is likely. But Twins competitive balance selection Kyle Cody is a question mark, with Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN tweeting that he’ll have to decide whether to accept a lower offer than he probably hoped for. Indeed, ESPN.com’s Keith Law adds on Twitter that he believes Cody will head back to college along with Dodgers comp pick Kyle Funkhouser (among other draftees). And the Brewers appear out of the race to land 29th-round flier Donny Everett, as Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets that the talented righty will honor his commitment to Vanderbilt (as expected).
Minor MLB Transactions: 7/10/15
Here are today’s minor moves from throughout the game.
- Rays lefty Everett Teaford has accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Durham, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets. The Rays designated Teaford for assignment on Wednesday. He’s spent most of this season in the rotation with Durham, where he’s posted a 5.56 ERA with 6.1 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 68 innings.
- The Rockies have selected the contract of lefty Aaron Laffey, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post tweets. They’ve also added righty Gonzalez Germen to their active roster, placed righty David Hale (groin strain) on the 15-day DL, optioned righty Scott Oberg, and moved minor league lefty Tyler Anderson (elbow) to the 60-day DL. The 30-year-old Laffey has played parts of seven big-league seasons with the Indians, Mariners, Yankees, Blue Jays and Mets, but he hadn’t appeared in a big-league game since 2013 before appearing with the Rockies tonight. He’s spent this season with Triple-A Albuquerque, posting a 4.91 ERA, 6.2 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 47 2/3 innings split between the rotation and the bullpen.
Dodgers Claim Preston Guilmet, Designate Chris Reed
2:17pm: Los Angeles has announced that it designated lefty Chris Reed for assignment to create 40-man space for Guilmet.
Reed, 25, came into the year rated the organization’s 10th-best prospect, per Baseball America, which said he could develop into a back-end starter or late-inning relief option. The 2011 first-rounder has had some uneven results in recent seasons, and was shifted to a pen role this year. Thus far in 2015, Reed owns a 5.97 ERA over 34 2/3 frames in the upper minors, with more walks (5.7 BB/9) than strikeouts (5.5 K/9).
12:27pm: The Dodgers have claimed righty Preston Guilmet off waivers from the Rays, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. His roster spot had been needed in Tampa Bay for the activation of John Jaso.
Los Angeles has made a notable habit of bringing in a steady stream of relief arms, and Guilmet now joins the flow. The 27-year-old only tossed 5 1/3 big league innings this season, but has spent at least some time in the majors over each of the last three years. While he hasn’t found much success in just 21 innings at the game’s highest level, he does own a promising 2.47 ERA, with 9.8 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9, in his Triple-A career.
Quick Hits: Rays, Nationals, Guerrero
The Rays have struggled lately, but they’ve done surprisingly well overall this season despite numerous pitching injuries. One key reason is that they’ve pulled starting pitchers early in games, as Yahoo! Sports’ Jeff Passan explains. The Rays have frequently removed starters after just five or six innings, even when they’ve been very effective, because batters tend to do much better against a pitcher the third time through the order. Rays pitcher Nate Karns says the team explained the strategy to its pitchers before the season. “They didn’t hand us a big spreadsheet or anything,” he says. “But they gave us what we needed to know. That’s something they’ve run a lot of numbers on, crunched a lot of data, and for me to have no numbers myself to refute it, I just trust them and believe what they’re doing is right. And it’s working.” The Rays’ rotation ERA of 3.29 ranks second in the American League despite injuries to a number of key pitchers. Here’s more from around the big leagues.
- Injuries to regulars like Jayson Werth, Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman and Denard Span raise questions about whether the Nationals should acquire another hitter at the trade deadline, Nats Insider’s Mark Zuckerman writes. As Zuckerman notes, the Nationals are currently three games up in the NL East, and they’ve been one of the NL’s better offensive teams overall. (A season like the one Bryce Harper is having makes a big difference in that regard.) The Nationals have also gotten nice contributions from players who didn’t project to be starters, including Danny Espinosa, Michael Taylor and Clint Robinson. But the Nationals simply have too many injured players for whom to cover. Zuckerman argues that a versatile regular like Ben Zobrist would be tremendously helpful in patching the Nats’ lineup.
- Alex Guerrero‘s contract with the Dodgers contains a clause that allows him to opt out after 2015 if he’s traded, but Guerrero might consider waiving that clause if he were paid extra, Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles writes. Guerrero (who can’t be optioned to the minors without his permission, either) has played sparingly lately, with Justin Turner handling third most of the time. Guerrero is currently owed about $12MM through 2017. He’s just 28 and has hit 10 homers in 159 plate appearances this year (albeit with a .277 OBP), so he could be a more appealing addition to the trade market if he’s willing to dispense with his opt-out clause.
AL East Notes: Rays, Smyly, Cueto, Jays, Napoli
Rays GM Matthew Silverman says that he remains confident in his club despite its recent slide, and indicated that he does not see the need for significant deadline additions, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. “If we’re a healthy team there isn’t a glaring need for us at the deadline,” said Silverman.
- The Rays expect to welcome back both outfielder Desmond Jennings and lefty Drew Smyly in August, Silverman added. While the former has been expected to return this year, it was not at all clear that Smyly would do so. Per a Topkin tweet, there is some chance that the labrum tear identified in Smyly’s pitching shoulder is an old injury, and the team is reasonably optimistic of getting him back in 2015.
- Among the teams watching Johnny Cueto throw yesterday were three AL East clubs — the Yankees, Orioles, and Blue Jays — per a tweet from Joel Sherman of the New York Post. All three line up as possible acquirers of pitchers, of course, so it’s not at all surprising to hear that they would be interested in taking a look at the prized righty (as, no doubt, are plenty of other teams). Who’ll land Cueto remains a hot topic; be sure to check out MLBTR’s Instagram post on just that topic.
- Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos continues to publicly address his teams’ needs with some regularity, this time in an appearance on Sportsnet 590 The Fan (via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca; Twitter links). Anthopoulos certainly did not leave the impression that he is plotting a run at Cueto, saying that the market for pure rental players is “the last aisle that I’d want to shop in.” Rather than going after a single player, it seems, Toronto is exploring a number of possible options. “Anybody that’s going to be out there in trades, we’re going to have interest in,” he said.
- Mike Napoli increasingly looks like an odd man out with the Red Sox, but it’s far too soon to tell where things are headed. Tim Britton of the Providence Journal writes that the first baseman has already lost time with the team playing David Ortiz and rookie Travis Shaw at first, while colleague Brian MacPherson explains the appeal of utilizing Ortiz at first in order to slot Hanley Ramirez as the DH. Manager John Farrell says that he is “not turning from” Napoli, as WEEI.com’s Justin Pallenik reports. And Ortiz himself hardly seems interested in anything more than spot duty in the infield, as Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports. While it remains at least theoretically possible that Boston could look to move Napoli, his $16MM annual salary and lack of an obvious replacement make that a complicated proposition.