The Opener

With just over two weeks left to go in the regular season, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. deGrom returns:

Jacob deGrom will pitch in the big leagues for the first time in more than a year when the Rangers activate him from the 60-day IL to face the Mariners in Seattle at 7:10pm local time. The 36-year-old is on the shortlist for the most dominant pitchers of the 21st century when healthy, but he’s struggled to stay on the mound in recent years. Dating back to 2018, deGrom sports a 2.08 ERA (191 ERA+) and 2.11 FIP with an eye-popping 35.6% strikeout rate. That dominance has come across just 108 starts, however, and things have gotten more drastic in recent years; while deGrom boasts a 2.03 ERA (198 ERA+) and 1.59 FIP with a comical 43.2% strikeout rate since the start of the 2021 season, that encompasses just 32 starts and 186 2/3 innings of work.

The right-hander will only get a few opportunities to pitch in the majors before the season comes to a close, but it’ll still be exciting for not only Rangers fans but baseball fans as a whole to have arguably the league’s best pitching talent on the mound again. The Rangers will need to make corresponding 40-man and active roster moves prior to deGrom’s start, although the former can be achieved by moving Corey Seager to the 60-day IL ahead of his impending sports hernia surgery.

2. Fitzgerald to undergo MRI:

In what has largely been another disappointing season for the Giants, the emergence of Tyler Fitzgerald as their regular shortstop has been a bright spot. The club’s fourth-round pick in the 2019 draft, Fitzgerald made his MLB debut last year and opened the season as a utility option. The versatile hitter, who will celebrate his 27th birthday over the weekend, has taken on a larger role in recent months and pulled it off with aplomb. In 49 games since being installed as the club’s regular shortstop, Fitzgerald boasts a huge .304/.356/.571 slash line 12 homers, 13 doubles, and ten stolen bases in 13 attempts.

Given Fitzgerald’s emergence as a top contributor, it was a worrying sign for fans in San Francisco when he was removed from yesterday’s game after just three innings. As noted by Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle, Fitzgerald told reporters that his back locked up on him before the game began and worsened through the early innings. The shortstop added that he wasn’t particularly concerned about the situation given that he deals with similar back issues “every year,” but nonetheless noted that he’s set to undergo an MRI today.

3. NL Wild Card race heats up:

The race for the third NL Wild Card spot figures to get very interesting this weekend as the two most likely clubs to grab that spot, the Braves and Mets, are both staring down tough matchups. Atlanta is welcoming the 87-59 Dodgers to Truist Park for a four-game set that begins tonight, while the Mets are ticketed for a three-game set in Philadelphia against the 88-58 Phillies. With the Braves (79-67) just one game back of the Mets (80-66), both series against the NL’s top dogs are particularly pivotal.

It’s also worth noting that the Diamondbacks (82-64) and Padres (82-65) hold the top two Wild Card spots by margins that are hardly insurmountable, and a free-fall by either club could shake up the race in a big way. The only other club with even a 1% chance of winning a Wild Card spot per FanGraphs is the Cubs, who took two of three from the Dodgers earlier this week to stay alive but face a five-game deficit that leaves them needing a miracle to get back into the race.

With just 17 days until the regular season comes to a close, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1: Altuve day-to-day:

Astros second baseman Jose Altuve was pulled from yesterday’s game due to what the club described as right side tightness. Manager Joe Espada told reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart) that he wasn’t worried about the issue at the moment and that Altuve was day-to-day, but it’s nonetheless a worrisome development for the Astros as they look to lock down the AL West and return to the postseason for a ninth consecutive season.

Altuve, 34, hasn’t hit at quite the elite level that he did the past two seasons but has nevertheless enjoyed an excellent campaign with a .304/.359/.452 slash line, 19 homers, and 20 steals in 622 trips to the plate. If the veteran were to hit one more home run before the year comes to a close, it would be his first 20/20 campaign since his MVP-winning 2017 season. Those aspirations may be put on hold for the time being if the injury proves to be more serious than the club initially believed, however.

2. Rocker to make MLB debut:

One of the league’s most interesting top prospects is set to make his big league debut, as the Rangers have scheduled right-hander Kumar Rocker to start today’s game against the Mariners in Seattle. The 24-year-old was a top ten pick in back-to-back draft classes in 2021-22 when the Mets selected him tenth overall before declining to sign him due to injury concerns in his physical. That led Rocker to take the unusual path of pitching in the independent Frontier League ahead of the 2022 draft, where the Rangers surprising selected the righty third overall despite many believing his stock had dipped.

Rocker ultimately underwent Tommy John surgery but has been brilliant since returning to action. In seven starts between the Double- and Triple-A levels this year, the right-hander boasts a 0.91 ERA with a 34.9% strikeout rate in 29 2/3 innings of work. He’ll now get the opportunity to show off his stuff at the big league level tonight, when he faces Bryce Miller (3.18 ERA) at 6:40pm local time.

3. Series Preview: Red Sox @ Yankees

The Red Sox did what they needed to do in order to keep their remote playoff odds alive against one division rival this week when they took two games in their three-game set against the Orioles. They’ll now travel to the Bronx for a four-game set against their archrival Yankees in another critical series. For Boston, a strong performance in this series is imperative to stay alive in the race for the third AL Wild Card spot, where they trail the Twins by four games. Meanwhile, the series provides the Yankees not only an opportunity to bury their oldest rival but also to hold onto their lead over the Orioles for the AL East title and the bye through the Wild Card Series that likely comes with it.

The series kicks off this evening at 7:15pm local time with a match-up between righty Cooper Criswell (4.11 ERA) and lefty Nestor Cortes (3.97 ERA). Righties Tanner Houck (3.24 ERA) and Clarke Schmidt (2.34 ERA in 12 starts) are scheduled to face off tomorrow. Saturday will see youngster Brayan Bello (4.70 ERA) take on Gerrit Cole (3.36 ERA in 14 starts). The series wraps on Sunday with right-hander Kutter Crawford (4.09 ERA) facing southpaw Carlos Rodon (4.21 ERA).

With just over two weeks remaining in the regular season, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Lopez to undergo MRI:

Braves right-hander Reynaldo Lopez was pulled from his start against the Nationals yesterday due to what the club referred to as shoulder tightness. As noted by The Athletic’s David O’Brien, the right-hander’s velocity was down more than 3 mph from his season average during the abbreviated outing. Manager Brian Snitker told reporters following the game that Lopez is set to undergo an MRI.

A converted reliever who surprisingly was signed with the intent of joining Atlanta’s rotation, Lopez has been dominant since joining the Braves. He sports a 2.03 ERA and 3.08 FIP in 128 2/3 innings of work with a 26.3% strikeout rate. The thought of losing a player who has produced results that strong is always worrisome, but it’s especially so for a Braves club that’s currently tied with the Mets for the final NL Wild Card spot and will need to pull away from them to even get the chance to make a deep run this October. Bryce Elder, AJ Smith-Shawver, and Ian Anderson are among the arms at Triple-A who could be called upon in Lopez’s stead down the stretch.

2. Schwarber dealing with elbow issue:

Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber broke the single-season MLB record for leadoff home runs with his 14th such dinger last night, but the celebratory air surrounding his accomplishment didn’t last long as he left the game during the fourth inning after suffering what manager Rob Thomson referred to (per MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki) as a bruised elbow that suffered from “a little bit” of hyperextension from diving back to first base on a pickoff attempt earlier in the game.

While Thomson said he plans to pencil Schwarber into the club’s lineup against the Rays today, The Athletic’s Matt Gelb notes that they won’t make a final decision on his availability until they see how the slugger is feeling today. The loss of Schwarber’s presence would be a tough blow for the Phillies, as he’s in the midst of one of the best seasons of his career with a .251/.372/.496 slash line with 35 homers and an NL-best 98 walks in 134 games.

3. Breakout arms square off in the Bronx:

The Yankees and Royals are scheduled to wrap up a three-game set, and they’ll do so with a pair of exciting young hurlers on the mound. Kansas City will deploy left-hander Cole Ragans, who enjoyed a breakout with the Royals down the stretch last year after being acquired from the Rangers and has continued that production over a full season in 2024. In 167 1/3 innings of work this year, the 26-year-old has pitched to a 3.33 ERA (128 ERA+) with a 2.94 FIP and an eye-popping 29.6% strikeout rate that’s second to only Tarik Skubal among AL starters.

Fellow 26-year-old Luis Gil missed the entire 2023 season due to injury and entered 2024 with just 33 1/3 big league innings on his resume. He got an opportunity in the rotation due to an injury that sidelined reigning AL Cy Young award winner Gerrit Cole, however, and Gil has made the most of it with a 3.24 ERA (128 ERA+) and a 3.78 FIP in 130 2/3 innings. The only starters who are 26 or younger with a lower ERA in at least 130 innings are Hunter Greene of the Reds, Javier Assad of the Cubs, and Bryce Miller of the Mariners.

As the 2024 regular season winds down, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Yamamoto to return:

Prized right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto last pitched for the Dodgers back in June. A rotator cuff strain sidelined the $325MM rookie 14 starts into his big league career, but he’ll return to the roster to take on the Cubs in L.A. at 7:10pm local time with another former NPB ace, left-hander Shota Imanaga (2.99 ERA), on the mound for Chicago. Prior to his injury, Yamamoto had pitched to a sterling 2.94 ERA with a 2.62 FIP in 74 innings of work while striking out 27.9% of opponents.

The 26-year-old hurler’s return to action is a welcome development for a Dodgers rotation that has recently lost Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, and Gavin Stone to the injured list. Yamamoto will spend the next couple weeks preparing for his first stateside playoff run as the Dodgers look to fend off the Padres and Diamondbacks in the NL West. Corresponding moves will be necessary on both the active and 40-man rosters to accommodate Yamamoto, who is returning from the 60-day injured list.

2. Series Preview: Padres @ Mariners

After dominating the AL West for the first half of the season, the Mariners have stumbled to a 21-25 record in the second half that’s allowed the Astros to run them down and take possession of the division crown. With less than three weeks to go until the regular season concludes, Seattle’s playoff hopes are looking unlikely but not impossible, as FanGraphs gives the club a 7.7% chance to make the postseason, highest of all AL clubs not currently in playoff position.

In order to make it to October for just the second time since 2001, the Mariners will have to take down a Padres club that’s firmly in playoff contention itself. San Diego is 5.5 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West but has a firm grasp on the top NL Wild Card spot with an 81-64 record that leaves them just a half game in front of Arizona but well ahead of the Braves and Mets as the two clubs battle for the third spot. The two-game set kicks off at 6:40pm local time this evening and will feature a pair of exciting pitching matchups, with veteran righty Yu Darvish (3.51 ERA) facing Mariners righty George Kirby (3.61 ERA) tonight. Tomorrow’s matchup will pit Michael King (3.10 ERA) against breakout youngster Bryan Woo (2.36 ERA).

3. MLBTR Chat Today:

With the calendar now flipped to September, all eyes are on the push to the postseason, where the Mets have recently pushed their way into the race with a torrid stretch and now sit just one game ahead of the Braves in the NL Wild Card standings. If you’re wondering about your team’s hopes of a World Series championship this fall or how your club could approach the coming offseason, MLBTR’s Steve Adams is holding a live chat with readers at 1pm CT today. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.

As the march towards the postseason continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Castillo to undergo MRI:

Mariners right-hander Luis Castillo is scheduled to undergo an MRI after suffering a left hamstring strain in yesterday’s game against the Cardinals. It’s been a relative down season for Castillo by his lofty standards, as the 31-year-old has pitched to a 3.64 ERA (102 ERA+) with a 3.93 FIP in 175 1/3 innings of work through 30 starts. Castillo has still been a key part of Seattle’s playoff hopes as he forms a rotation (alongside Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryan Woo, and Bryce Miller) that is arguably the finest in the entire sport.

That excellent rotation will be key to the club keeping the last vestiges of its playoff hopes alive. At 73-71, Seattle has just a 7.7% chance (per FanGraphs) of making it into the postseason with about three weeks to go in the regular season. That precarious positioning makes even a single missed start potentially devastating for the Mariners, but a longer absence could put a dent in their chances of success in the playoffs even in the improbable event that they manage to squeak into the postseason. Righty Emerson Hancock (4.76 ERA, 5.43 FIP in nine big league starts), would likely take over Castillo’s rotation spot were the veteran to go on the injured list.

2. Graterol to return:

As noted by MLB.com’s Injury Tracker, the Dodgers are expected to activate right-hander Brusdar Graterol from the injured list before today’s game against the Cubs. Graterol suffered a hamstring strain just over a month ago in his first appearance of the 2024 season after a season-long battle with shoulder inflammation. The club will need to make an activate roster move in order to activate Graterol.

The 26-year-old was dominant for L.A. last year with a 1.20 ERA and 3.03 FIP in 67 1/3 innings of work, and the Dodgers are surely hoping he can bring that kind of elite production to the back of their bullpen down the stretch and into the playoffs. After all, the club’s 4.35 ERA and 4.47 FIP out of the bullpen since the start of July are both below average, with the latter figure landing in the bottom six among all big league clubs. The club’s struggles to close out games have been largely solved by the deadline addition of Michael Kopech, but the return of Graterol should give the club another late-inning option alongside Evan Phillips, Blake Treinen, and Daniel Hudson.

3. Will the Braves bring up Biggio?

The Braves acted quickly on the heels of news that their injury replacement for Ozzie Albies, veteran Whit Merrifield, had himself suffered a notable injury when he fouled a ball off his foot, resulting in a small fracture. While a visit with a specialist determined that Merrifield wouldn’t further aggravate the issue by finishing out the season and would be able to return to the field as soon as the pain in his foot allowed, that didn’t stop Atlanta brass from acquiring second baseman Cavan Biggio over the weekend. Though Biggio wouldn’t be eligible for the postseason, will the Braves nonetheless look to select his contract to the big league roster? Such a move would require the club to not only clear a spot on the active roster, but also make a 40-man roster move in order to accommodate Biggio.

As the final month of the regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world headed into the weekend:

1, Marte nearing return:

The Diamondbacks have been without one of their stars since Ketel Marte went down with an ankle sprain around three weeks ago. Fortunately for fans in Arizona, it seems that absence will come to an end soon. MLB.com’s Injury Tracker indicates that Marte could return to action as soon as this weekend. It’s possible that Marte’s return will start with reps at DH rather than second base as the club eases their star back into regular duty.

Arizona has a firm grasp on a playoff spot at this point with a 79-62 record, but the club nonetheless figures to get a big boost from the return of Marte, who is slashing an incredible .298/.370/.560 with a wRC+ of 150 in 116 games this year. In his absence, the Snakes have relied on a platoon of Luis Guillorme and Kevin Newman at the keystone, though that partnership will continue for as long as Marte is used at DH — potentially pushing Joc Pederson and Josh Bell to spend more time on the bench.

2. Series Preview: Guardians @ Dodgers

Two of baseball’s best teams this year are set to square off in a three-game set over the weekend that could be a possible preview of the 2024 World Series. The Dodgers entered the season as the presumptive favorite not only in the NL West, but in baseball as a whole after an offseason spending spree that brought Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and Teoscar Hernandez into the fold. By contrast, few expected the Guardians to be serious contenders after the club posted a 76-86 record last year and made almost no changes to their roster over the offseason. Even so, Cleveland’s 80-60 record gives them a four-game lead in the AL Central and the fifth-best record in MLB overall.

The Dodgers have mostly met their preseason expectations to this point despite lengthy absences from Yamamoto, Glasnow, and Mookie Betts while the Guardians have greatly exceeded expectations by establishing themselves as one of the best teams in the AL. As both clubs attempt to beat back a pair of divisions rivals nipping at their heels down the stretch and secure a bye through the first round of the postseason, the Guardians will send left-hander Matthew Boyd (2.38 ERA in four starts), veteran right-hander Alex Cobb (2.76 ERA in three starts), and youn righty Gavin Williams (4.55 ERA) to the mound at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers haven’t formally announced their rotation for the series, but rookie Landon Knack (2.72 ERA in eight starts) is expected to start today’s game against Boyd, while right-handers Gavin Stone (3.53 ERA) and Jack Flaherty (3.01 ERA) would be on turn for the final two games.

3. Pitchers’ Duel in California:

Elsewhere in the NL West, two of the NL’s best hurlers face off. In Saturday’s game between the Giants and Padres at Petco Park, groundball specialist Logan Webb is set to take on strikeout artist Dylan Cease. Webb, a Giant for the entirety of his career to this point, has excelled this year with a 3.43 ERA and a 2.97 FIP in an NL-best 183 2/3 innings of work. This season has been more of the same for Webb, who has been among the league’s most consistent pitchers in recent years with a 3.16 ERA and 2.99 FIP in 740 1/3 innings of work since the start of the 2021 season.

Cease gets to his front-of-the-rotation production in an entirely different way. His groundball rate since 2021 is more than 20 points lower than that of Webb, but his strikeout rate (30.3%) is nearly ten points higher. Cease’s 3.62 ERA and 3.18 FIP in 164 innings of work this year aren’t far off from Webb, but his career has had far more ups and downs; Cease posted lackluster numbers in his final season with the White Sox last year that inflate his 3.56 ERA and 3.35 FIP in 690 2/3 innings of work since 2021. The two hurlers are set to face off tomorrow at 5:40pm local time.

On the heels of some big news out of San Francisco, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Will any other deals come together this September?

While the general rule of thumb is that in-season extensions are rare, they’ve become a bit more common in recent seasons, particularly near the end of the year. Chapman’s deal last night was the 13th extension signed in September or October going back to 2022, a year that saw major deals between Luis Castillo and the Mariners as well as Spencer Strider and the Braves come together in the season’s final months. Blockbuster extensions are hardly the only type that can occur just before the offseason begins: veterans Charlie Morton and Charlie Blackmon, for example, have both signed one-year extensions just before they were scheduled to hit free agency in recent years.

In Chapman’s case, the deal was surely spurred on in part by the impending opt-out in his contract, which he was all but certain to exercise. Chapman wasn’t the only player on that track this year, however. Lefty Sean Manaea is expected to opt out of his deal with the Mets and return to free agency this winter, and Chapman’s own teammate Blake Snell appears very likely to do the same on the heels of a dominant second half with the Giants.

2. Robert exits with injury:

It’s been a brutal season for center fielder Luis Robert Jr. and the White Sox. Things went from bad to worse yesterday when the club’s 8-1 win over the Orioles, just their 32nd victory of the season, was soured by Robert exiting the game due to tightness in his right hamstring. Per MLB.com’s Injury Tracker, interim manager Grady Sizemore told reporters following the game that the hamstring issue first started on Tuesday and that he made the decision to pull Robert when he saw the outfielder running the bases more gingerly than usual.

Given Robert’s importance to the club as one of their few potential impact pieces and the team’s dismal 32-109 record, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Sox prioritize Robert’s long-term health and place him on the injured list to ensure his hamstring heals fully. It’s been a tough year at the plate for Robert, who has slashed just .219/.274/.398 (86 wRC+) with defensive metrics in center field that are closer to league average than the elite numbers he posted in previous seasons. The club figures to turn to Dominic Fletcher in center field in the event that Robert misses time nursing his ailing hamstring.

3. Tucker nearing return:

Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker has been on the shelf since early June, and it recently came to light that despite the fact that Houston brass consistently referred to his injury as a bone bruise throughout his lengthy rehab process, Tucker had actually suffered a fractured shin. Regardless of the unusual messaging from club officials regarding Tucker’s injury, it appears that a return is on the horizon. Manager Joe Espada told reporters (including those at MLB.com) yesterday that Tucker is “really, really close” to being activated from the injured list and could return to the club’s lineup as soon as today, although Espada did caution that a return to action tomorrow was the more likely outcome.

Tucker got out to a scorching start this year with a .266/.395/.584 slash line (175 wRC+) in 60 games prior to his placement on the IL. Ben Gamel and Jason Heyward have been handling right field in the star’s absence, and it’s possible that Tucker’s return could create a roster crunch that impacts one of those veterans. Corresponding moves will need to be made to make room for Tucker on both the 40-man and active rosters before he can be activated.

As the stretch run of the 2024 regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Darvish returns to the mound:

Veteran right-hander Yu Darvish is scheduled to make his first start for the Padres since May tonight against the Tigers. The 38-year-old missed time due to hamstring and elbow issues earlier this summer before being placed on the restricted list due to an undisclosed family matter back in July.

Prior to his lengthy absence, the veteran looked to be rebounding from a fairly pedestrian 2023 season. After posting a lackluster 4.56 ERA last year, Darvish impressed with a 3.20 ERA and 3.54 FIP in 11 starts this year before hitting the shelf. Since being traded to the Padres after a second-place finish in NL Cy Young award voting with the Cubs in 2020, Darvish has put together a 3.80 ERA with a 3.69 FIP and a 26.2% strikeout rate. With the Padres firmly in the playoff picture, both Darvish and fellow veteran Joe Musgrove figure to factor into the club’s postseason rotation alongside Dylan Cease and Michael King.

2. Yankees weighing late-inning options?

As noted by The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner overnight, Yankees manager Aaron Boone refused to answer a question regarding right-hander Clay Holmes’ status as the club’s closer following yesterday’s heartbreaking loss where Holmes surrendered a walk-off grand slam to Rangers rookie Wyatt Langford. Boone said during his postgame presser the club plans to “talk through it and do what we think is the best thing” but didn’t want to say more while the team was still “raw and emotional” following the loss.

Holmes, who earned his second career All-Star nod this season, sports a 3.27 ERA and an excellent 2.91 FIP in 55 innings of work. Despite those strong rate numbers, however, he hasn’t exactly been a shutdown ninth-inning option in his third year as the club’s closer. He’s converted just 29 of his 40 save opportunities. Those 11 blown saves lead the majors, well ahead of even other struggling closers like Craig Kimbrel and David Bednar, both of whom have blown six saves in 29 chances.

3. Twins roster move incoming:

As noted by Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune yesterday, the Twins are expected to recall right-hander Louie Varland before today’s game against the Rays. Varland is poised to pitch in a multi-inning relief role after scheduled starter Ronny Henriquez, who hasn’t thrown more than two innings in an outing with the big league club this year. After today’s scheduled outing, it’s not clear if Varland will pitch for the club in a bullpen role down the stretch or remain stretched out as a starting option, but Nightengale suggests that the 26-year-old figures to remain with the club going forward rather than return to the minor leagues.

Varland entered the year as a rotation candidate in Minnesota, with a career 4.40 ERA (96 ERA+) in 94 innings as a swing option at the big league level. Unfortunately for the righty, he surrendered a disastrous 9.18 ERA in four starts back in April and was quickly demoted to the minors. He’s looked much better since, with a 3.60 ERA and 4.33 FIP in 20 innings of work at the big league level while shuttling between the majors and minors, but he’s been leapfrogged by Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa and Zebby Matthews on the Twins’ rotation depth chart. Minnesota will need to make a corresponding active roster move prior to today’s game to accommodate the addition of Varland.

As MLB’s stretch run gets under way, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Steele scratched from scheduled start:

Cubs manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including ESPN’s Jesse Rogers) last night that ace southpaw Justin Steele had been scratched from his scheduled start today due to elbow soreness. No information is currently available regarding the severity of the issue or how much time the lefty is expected to miss. Rogers indicated that the club expects to know more about Steele’s situation today, while Steele’s teammate Jameson Taillon told reporters (including Rogers) after yesterday’s game that “From everything [he] heard, we’re hoping it’s just a quick thing.”

Regardless of if Steele only misses a start or two or is ticketed for a much longer absence, the news is a devastating blow to the Cubs as they struggle to remain relevant in the playoff picture. They currently sit 3.5 games back with just 3.7% odds at the playoffs per Fangraphs, and the loss of their ace could snuff out any remote hopes the club has of putting together a September surge. Steele missed time with a hamstring injury earlier this year, but in 22 starts, the 29-year-old has posted a 3.09 ERA with a 3.14 FIP in 128 innings. Those results are right in line with what Steele has done for three years running now, and his 3.10 ERA since the start of the 2022 season is fourth-lowest among pitchers with at least 400 innings, bested only by Justin Verlander, Max Fried, and Zack Wheeler.

2. Cole exits start due to cramping:

Steele wasn’t the only ace to have an injury scare yesterday, as Yankees right-hander Gerrit Cole exited his start last night with what the club termed (as noted by The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner) a right calf cramp. The right-hander, who will celebrate his 34th birthday later this week, is set to be evaluated further today but told reporters (including MLB.com’s Drew Davison) that he isn’t “super concerned” about the issue. Cole likened the issue to one he previously encountered against the Dodgers last season, when he avoided the injured list and simply made his next start on an extra day of rest before returning to his routine without further issues.

After missing almost the entire first half with injury, Cole returned in June but hasn’t looked quite like himself over his 69 innings of work this year. His 4.12 FIP is the worst figure of his career, and his 3.65 ERA is the highest its been since the 2017 season during his time with the Pirates. Still, even that diminished level of production is quite valuable, particularly for a Yankees club that has seen its other starters put up a lackluster 4.65 ERA since the start of July.

3. MLBTR Chat Today:

With the calendar now flipped to September, all eyes are on the push to the postseason, where the Mets, Cubs, Red Sox, and Mariners lurk on the periphery of the playoff bubble. Much of the intrigue is focused on the race to the top two seeds in each league, which earn byes through the playoffs and have little certainty headed into the seasons final month. If you’re wondering about your team’s hopes of a World Series championship this fall or how your club could approach the coming offseason, MLBTR’s Steve Adams is holding a live chat with readers at 1pm CT today. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.

Happy Labor Day to those who celebrate! While fans around America enjoy a day of rest and relaxation, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Leiter to be recalled:

The Rangers are set to recall the second overall pick of the 2021 draft, right-hander Jack Leiter, to the big league club today. While the 24-year-old was optioned back down to the minors after pitching in a doubleheader against the White Sox last week as the club’s 27th man, reporting indicated at the time that the Rangers were planning to give Leiter a more extended look in the rotation down the stretch. That look figures to start today, and Leiter will get a tough first assignment with Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and the Yankees coming to town for a game that’s scheduled to start at 7:05pm local time.

Leiter struggled badly early in his professional career despite posting sensational numbers during his time in the SEC, but this year has managed to turn things around at Triple-A. He’s posted a solid 3.51 ERA with a 33.3% strikeout rate for the Rangers’ affiliate in Round Rock, a feat made more impressive by the inflated offensive environment in the Pacific Coast League. He’s made just four spot starts in the big leagues to this point in his career to terrible results, but given his stellar minor league numbers it’s easy to see why Texas wants to see how he looks in a more consistent major league role.

2. Gurriel to undergo MRI:

The Diamondbacks were dealt a frustrating blow yesterday afternoon when outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. was pulled from yesterday’s game due to a calf injury that occurred while he attempted to beat out a double play ball. Manager Torey Lovullo described Gurriel as day-to-day after the game but also noted that the outfielder is set to undergo an MRI to determine the severity of the issue. Gurriel’s second season in a Diamondbacks uniform has been more or less identical to his first, as he’s posted a 104 wRC+ with 1.9 fWAR after posting a 105 wRC+ with 2.0 fWAR for last year’s NL pennant-winning squad.

If Gurriel were to miss significant time due to the injury, it’s possible that the club’s current DH tandem of Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk could see expanded roles down the stretch, though recently recalled youngster Jorge Barrosa would be another option worth considering in Gurriel’s absence. The switch-hitting rookie has just 11 plate appearances in the majors under his belt but owns a solid .272/.383/.444 career slash line in 181 games at the Triple-A level to this point in his career. If the club prefers to keep Pederson and Grichuk in their current roles but does not want to turn their regular left field job over to a 23-year-old rookie, they could also turn to Pavin Smith to cover for Gurriel. The outfielder has struggled at the big league level in years past but this season has hit a solid .250/.314/.434 in a part-time role.

3. Series Preview: Red Sox @ Mets

An interleague series between the two clubs closest to capturing a playoff spot in each league is scheduled to begin today when the Red Sox head to Queens for a three-game set. Of the two clubs, the Mets are much more firmly in playoff contention at this point, sitting just one game back of the Braves for the final NL Wild Card spot. The Red Sox, by contrast, are 4.5 games back of the Royals and Twins in the AL Wild Card race entering the stretch run. Per the playoff odds over at Fangraphs, Boston has a 15.5% chance of making the postseason while the Mets have 29.2% odds.

With the season entering its final stretch, the series could prove pivotal for both clubs as they seek postseason berths. Game 1 is scheduled to begin at 7:10pm local time this evening, when Red Sox youngster Brayan Bello (4.66 ERA) takes the mound opposite veteran hurler Luis Severino (3.96 ERA). Tomorrow will see righty Kutter Crawford (4.12 ERA) square off against southpaw David Peterson (2.83 ERA), and Boston’s staff ace Tanner Houck (3.12 ERA) face Mets righty Tylor Megill (4.82 ERA) in the series finale on Wednesday.