Tim Dierkes' MLB Mailbag

This week's mailbag covers the Rafael Devers situation, potential Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scenarios, fits for Anthony Rizzo, whether the Braves should've traded Sean Murphy, and questions involving the Mets and Phillies.

Clarke asks:

Devers says 3B is his, Story is at SS, Campbell at 2B and Casas says he's at first and Bregman is at 2B and to heck with the kids. Meanwhile, Yoshida insists he's ready to DH and play outfield. Sounds like an accident waiting to happen. What say you?

Elden asks:

What would be the outcome of a player refusing to accept an assignment decision made by the club management? ex: Devers refusing to give up 3B or Stroman refusing to work out of the bullpen. Would it be grounds to void a contract? suspension? other remedies?

It's a mess, and it's why I didn't think Bregman was a good fit for the Red Sox.  Here's a potential 2025 plan:

• Alex Bregman at 3B
• Trevor Story at SS
• Kristian Campbell at 2B
• Triston Casas at 1B
• Rafael Devers at DH
• Masataka Yoshida traded or in a part-time role

I think there's a fair chance Bregman misses 20 or so games due to injury.  Third base would well-covered in that case with Devers, perhaps Campbell in a pinch, and maybe Marcelo Mayer when he's ready.

Story is 32 and hasn't topped 94 games in a season since 2021, so the Red Sox may need to cover 40+ games at shortstop.  He could be backed up by Mayer, Campbell, or even Bregman.

If Campbell falters as a rookie, various options open up for Alex Cora given that the team still has a bunch of other second base possibilities beyond Bregman.

There's a pretty good chance Casas misses 20+ games due to injury.  It makes tons of sense for Devers to work at first base in spring training, as he could get 40+ games as an infield corner backup even if Bregman and Casas are the starters.

A lot of different injury scenarios push Yoshida into more playing time, though Cora will probably want to sit him for Rob Refsnyder against most lefties.  Wilyer Abreu needs a platoon partner as well.

What about a scenario where everyone is healthy and the younger players are hitting to their projections?

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This week's mailbag gets into the Yankees and Nolan Arenado, whether Adolis Garcia will bounce back, the Orioles' position player surplus, possible Red Sox extensions, fits for Alec Bohm, a pair of hypothetical trade offers, and more.

Ralph asks:

Why are we seeing so many ideas for trades if the Yankees are so close to the threshold? If does not seem that anyone wants to take salary off of the Yankees, so how could they afford Bregman, Arenado or anyone else?

George asks:

The Yankees and Nolan Arenado seem like great fits for each other. Arenado at third would be an upgrade defensively, and he teams back up with Goldy. Jazz moves back to second. With Volpe at short, the infield should be sound defensively.

I know Mo turned down an Arenado for Stroman swap, but perhaps he might reconsider a trade involving Stroman as Spring Training arrives. The Cardinals were rumored to be interested in Clayton Beeter maybe a year or so ago. Also, they could use a right-handed bat.

Do see any pathway forward for a trade that satisfies the needs of both teams?

Daniel asks:

Will the Yankees eventually make a deal for Arenado and dump Stroman to the Cards?

The Yankees' competitive balance tax payroll sits around $305MM, according to RosterResource.  So they're already over the last threshold and will pay a 110% tax on every dollar added.  Back in May, Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner famously said, "Look, I’m gonna be honest, payrolls at levels we’re at right now are simply not sustainable for us financially."  So while the Yankees had a CBT payroll of $316MM in 2024, it's fair to suggest they won't go much higher and might simply subtract.

It's worth keeping in mind that Stroman is not directly tied to Arenado.  The Yankees may simply eat, say, $10-12MM of the $18MM owed to him and enjoy the salary and tax savings.

We touched on this last week, but reporting this offseason has suggested the Yankees' interest in Arenado ranges from non-existent to modest.  Yesterday, Katie Woo of The Athletic wrote, "The New York Yankees have continued to check in on Arenado as well, league sources said, but payroll concerns from both organizations have made a trade unlikely at this point."

Arenado's situation seems more tied to Alex Bregman and the Red Sox than anything to do with the Yankees.  Regarding the financial aspect, two days ago, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote, "It’s become apparent how teams want the ticking clock to pressure the Cardinals into covering more salary than the $15 million-$20 million they have expected."

Before the Cardinals kick in a dime, Arenado's CBT hit is somewhere below $21.33MM per year, since A) the Rockies are paying $10MM of his remaining $74MM and B) $12MM is deferred without interest until 2032.  We can use $20MM as an estimate here.

There are two related complications with Arenado.  The first: how is he going to perform over the next three years?  Some projection systems say he'll stick right around 3 WAR in 2025.  On the other end, the aforementioned The Bat X puts him at 1.4 WAR.  Wherever you project for '25, Arenado's age-34 season, you'd factor in further decline for his age-35 and 36 campaigns.

In his recent chat, Derrick Goold wrote, "[The Yankees] want to take on the player but have the Cardinals take on the financial risk that Arenado would repeat this past year. That way it was all upside for the Yankees with the 'value' of Arenado's performance. They would be on the hook for what they considered the cost of him producing like he did in 2024, and the Cardinals would cover the rest."

I'd love to sit down with Brian Cashman and unpack that, because Arenado was worth 2.5 WAR per Baseball-Reference and 3.1 WAR per FanGraphs.  Looking at various free agent position players who signed for one year, such as Gleyber Torres, Paul Goldschmidt, Carlos Santana, and Max Kepler, the market has paid these types roughly $5-9MM per projected WAR.

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This week's mailbag gets into Vladimir Guerrero Jr. vs. Pete Alonso, whether the Mets should move on from Alonso, whether any MLB trade was as shocking as the NBA's Luka Doncic deal, those who feel this MLB offseason has been dull, how much the Red Sox would have to eat on Masataka Yoshida's contract, possible Sandy Alcantara suitors, and much more.

Jed asks:

Why is the general expectation that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will get over $400m in free agency next winter for 10+ years despite being a defensively limited, slow-footed, right-hand batting first baseman. With Pete Alonso, I've seen so much coverage about how he may not get more than a $23m AAV from the Mets for no more than three years total. Obviously Pete is 4 years and three months older than Vlad Jr., and would be playing his age 30-32 seasons on a three-year deal. But Vlad Jr. will be 27 in 2026, the first year of his presumptive 10+ year mega deal. After those first three seasons on Vlad's hypothetical 10+ year mega deal, he will also be playing his age-30 season in the fourth year of such a contract, presumably at a $40m AAV.

Aside from getting his age 27-29 seasons, why are pundits convinced that an expensive, long-term deal for Vlad Jr makes more sense than a short-term deal with a $23m AAV for Alonso (especially considering that since their 2019 debut seasons, Alonso has hit 66 more homers and posted a higher slugging percentage)? Why is everyone convinced that Vlad Jr represents a better long-term bet to succeed than Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, and all the other countless examples of RHB 1B who failed to produce in their 30s?

I can't speak to general expectations; only my own.  I encourage you to re-read what I wrote on this on December 10th.  A key point was, "So much depends on which Guerrero shows up in 2025."

I strongly prefer the wRC+ stat to home run totals and slugging percentage.  We need to account for offensive contributions other than the home run, and in a more logical way than slugging percentage (a home run is not worth four times as much as a single, for example).  Guerrero has two elite seasons with the bat: 2021 and 2024.  In those years, he hit so well that his defense was an afterthought and he was worth 5-6 WAR.  Juan Soto had six 5-WAR-ish or better seasons under his belt prior to free agency (extrapolating his rookie year and the shortened 2020 season), and it's because he's never posted worse than a 143 wRC+.

Guerrero sandwiched a 132 and 118 season between his 160+ ones, and hitting in that more human range can drop him all the way to 1-3 WAR.  That's a guy you very much don't want to be paying $40MM a year.  But Vlad always has the batted-ball data to back up elite offense, and with another 160+ season I do think offers reach $400MM+.

Alonso's best season was his rookie year with a 144 wRC+.  His second-best was 141 in 2022.  He's been at 121 over the last two years.  He's a 2-3 WAR player who's shown a ceiling of 4 WAR.  Guerrero has shown more variance, but his ceiling has been 6 WAR and he nearly reached it in the recently-completed season.

In comparing age, I'd look at the Opening Day difference of each player's first year under a new free agent contract.  In other words, comparing age at 4-1-25 for Alonso to 4-1-26 for Guerrero.  Using that approach, Guerrero is 3.27 years younger.  Those being prime years, they're incredibly important when it comes to free agent contracts.

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This week's mailbag gets into Alex Bregman's possible landing spots, Boston's failure to add a right-handed bat, potential contracts for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Kyle Tucker, Jarred Kelenic's trade value, the Tigers' relatively quiet offseason, the Marlins' rebuild, and much more.

Mark asks:

Logically, which team makes the most sense to sign Alex Bregman? I see awkward fits in HOU and BOS. And while TOR has a logical fit roster-wise, DET just makes the most sense to me. A need for veteran leadership on a young team, need for a 3B, and room on their payroll. I'm not a DET fan, but an STL fan who wants to find a team for Nolan Arenado, which I doubt happens until Bregman signs! Thanks.

Troy asks:

Big Astros fan here, what is your feeling about where Bregman goes? I'd love to have him back with the team but to me it may not be a good fit anymore with the other moves that have already been made, plus with a win now team such as this I'd rather them take the money they saved trading Pressly and get a true outfielder.

On Tuesday, Astros GM Dana Brown said, "I would mostly say it’s all internal conversations as to what we would like to do in terms of Bregman."  Asked a few days earlier whether the door is shut, Brown hesitated and replied, "I would say it's cracked."  At another point he said it's a "long shot."

On Monday, Chandler Rome and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote that Bregman "maintains interest from five teams and is no closer to a decision now than before Pressly’s departure."  They added, "All winter, sources have indicated Astros owner Jim Crane is unwilling to pay the tax for a second consecutive season."  Estimates have the Astros' CBT payroll at $4.86MM shy of the first tax threshold, or $4.68MM short.

Crucially, the Athletic reporters said the Astros' six-year, $156MM offer to Bregman "remains on the table."  If that's true, then Crane absolutely is willing to go over the tax threshold again, since Bregman could theoretically just accept their offer right now.

It seems fair to guess that the Astros will not be increasing their offer much if at all.  In our early November contract predictions, we gave Bregman the Kris Bryant contract: seven years, $182MM.  Bryant, however, was about nine months younger than Bregman will be on Opening Day this year.  Plus, Bryant had to join a poorly-run, typically non-competitive team to get his maximum contract.

I don't see why Scott Boras wouldn't just accept the Astros' offer.  It's true: if he finds Bregman a bigger offer elsewhere, he wins.  I'm not sure Bregman would be happier; I don't know what's going on in his head.  But accepting $156MM to stay in Houston would hardly be a disappointment, and it'd still be more money than Matt Chapman received on his recent extension.

Dana Brown might have a great poker face, but I saw nothing to indicate he's bluffing and a deal is right around the corner.  On the other hand, if that Astros' offer is indeed on the table, one word from Bregman and the deal could be done.

It's true, the fit is mildly awkward now that the Astros have Christian Walker and Isaac Paredes.  But as MLBTR's Steve Adams has said, it's really not crazy to take one of the game's worst defensive second basemen in Altuve and stick him in left field to make the pieces fit.  Plus, it wouldn't be surprising to see Yordan Alvarez miss a month or age start to catch up with Walker (34 in March) or Altuve (35 in May).  The odds that one of these guys gets hurt are pretty strong.

So I do still like the Astros as the best fit for Bregman, but let's look at the other suitors.

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