Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag News & Rumors

This week's mailbag gets into many aspects of the Rafael Devers trade, remaining questions to answer in Boston, no-trade clauses, shortstop options for the Braves, Pete Alonso's next contract, Ryan Helsley's struggles, and much more.

Kevin asks:

What's your personal take on the Giants trade? I think Boston got the better deal.

John asks:

Seen a lot of talk from fans and the media that Devers contract will age badly but I did a little digging into the Contract Tracker. Between 2015 and 2020 there were 12 contracts with an AAV at 30 mil. and over. This year alone there were 5, including one for 50. So am I wrong to think that given the way salaries have escalated by the end of the contract 30 mil. likely won't be that big a deal?

Denny asks:

Will Devers HR stats suffer playing home games at whatever the current name is of the ballpark in SF?

My initial reaction was to favor the Giants' side of the deal.  They added a 28-year-old top 10 hitter in baseball who should be worth 3-4 WAR per year for the foreseeable future.  The Giants also ditched Jordan Hicks' contract in the process.

The Giants could feel pain from moving Kyle Harrison and James Tibbs III, but probably not in the short-term.  The balance of this deal hinges heavily on Harrison, who is just 23 and retains number two starter upside.  The Red Sox can control Harrison through 2030 if they keep him in the minors for a few weeks, which I'm guessing is the plan.  Harrison has at least held his own through the equivalent of one Major League season.

Tibbs is considered a 50-grade prospect; he'll have to hit a lot to profile as a corner outfield regular.  Jose Bello is the wild card prospect, and those get moved regularly.

I have seen multiple anonymous executives suggest Devers' contract is underwater, meaning he's worth less than he's owed.  You could look at that in a strict dollars per WAR/aging curve sense, plugging in Devers as a 4-ish WAR player for 2025 who will begin his decline in 2026 or '27 and will be paid through 2033 (age 36).  WAR doesn't like a player like this, especially if he's a DH, and I could see valuing him below $250MM with this approach.

Say Devers was owed $253MM at the time of the trade, plus a $2MM assignment bonus paid by the Giants.  Let's also say that Hicks should be valued around $8MM per year.  Given that his contract pays $12MM a year through 2027, the Giants save approximately $10MM by unloading Hicks' contract.  Factor in Devers' deferrals and we'll say it's like the Giants are paying Devers around $225MM for the next 8.5 years.

Had Devers been declared a free agent on June 15, would he have topped $225MM?

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It's time for another installment of our weekly MLB Mailbag. I'm pinch-hitting for Tim Dierkes once more this week before he takes back over next week. In today's mailbag, we'll look at Devin Williams' signature changeup, a group of potential first base targets on the trade market and what they might cost, Framber Valdez's earning power, Colt Keith's role in Detroit, the Red Sox' struggles and Rafael Devers' future, the Dodgers' third base outlook and Toronto's collection of outfielders. Let's dive in.

Elden asks:

I admittedly never followed Devin Williams before the NYY acquired him but isn't it odd to have a closer so heavily reliant on changeups? What is the current timeline to get Weaver back?

It's odd, yes, but when said changeup is arguably the best pitch in baseball since Williams' debut, it's hard to argue with the approach. First, let's look at historical changeup usage by Williams.

Sports Info Solutions began tracking pitch types back in 2002. Since the 2002 season, there have been 6500 individual seasons by relievers with more than 20 innings thrown. Only 20 of them have seen a reliever deploy his changeup at a 50% clip or higher. Williams has five of those. Tommy Kahnle has four of them.

Williams isn't the only reliever to make a career out of a lethal changeup, of course. Trevor Hoffman rode his changeup to the Hall of Fame. Francisco Rodriguez and Fernando Rodney had dominant changeups at their peaks. None threw their changeup even close to as frequently as Williams, however. Broadly speaking, yes, it's quite rare for relievers to be this reliant on changeups. It's rare for relievers to even have a changeup as their go-to secondary offering; fastball/slider combos have been en vogue for years and remain so.

Statcast and its pitch tracking data were rolled out in all 30 MLB parks back in 2015. Since 2015, Williams' "Airbender" unsurprisingly grades out as the best changeup in the sport, but it's also the eighth-most valuable pitch overall. The only individual pitches that carry greater value in that time are (in order): Kenley Jansen's cutter, Josh Hader's sinker, Chad Green's four-seamer (!!), Edwin Diaz's slider, Zack Britton's sinker, Emmanuel Clase's cutter and Liam Hendriks' four-seamer. Of course, it bears mentioning that Jansen, Hader, Green, Hendriks and Diaz have all pitched far more in that decade-long window than Williams, who only debuted in 2019.

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I'm pinch-hitting for Tim Dierkes on this week's edition of the MLBTR Mailbag. We'll tackle questions on Jarren Duran and the Padres, Alex Bregman's opt-out status, Donovan Solano and Tyler Locklear in Seattle, Masataka Yoshida, Brendan Donovan, some Giants rotation standouts, the Angels' bullpen and more!

Ross asks:

With the report that the Padres are interested in Jarren Duran, what would be a reasonable return for the Red Sox?

As we discussed on the podcast this week, the Padres/Duran connection feels like it's drawing a bit more attention than it should, at least based on the chances of him actually changing hands (even more so if we specifically zero in on the Padres). That's not to say there's no chance of a Duran deal, but the Padres have a clear need in the outfield and an ultra-aggressive baseball operations leader in A.J. Preller. It'd frankly be more surprising if they hadn't inquired on Duran.

That said, it's worth diving into a bit. Duran had a borderline MVP-caliber season last year, hitting .285/.342/.492 with plus defense and elite baserunning. Baseball-Reference valued him at 8.7 wins above replacement. We've seen players named MVP with lesser WAR totals than that, but Duran was an afterthought in the 2024 race thanks to outrageously good seasons from Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt Jr. and (to a slightly lesser extent) Juan Soto.

The Padres' farm system was once a powerhouse but is now top-heavy and lacking depth. Shortstop Leo De Vries and catcher Ethan Salas are among MLB's 25 best prospects, but there's not a lot of other talent in the hopper. It makes a deal difficult to envision -- for multiple reasons.

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This week's mailbag gets into a potential extension for Zach Neto, who could offer a Juan Soto-like package for Paul Skenes, Ken Rosenthal's recent article on the Nationals, potentially available outfielders and relievers, upcoming free agents who have helped and hurt their stock, and much more.

RJ asks: 

What would an extension look like for Zach Neto?

Neto, 24, was the first player from the 2022 draft class to reach the Majors.  As a rookie in 2023, Neto missed a month with an oblique strain and later missed more than that with a back injury.  He didn't hit much as a rookie, but as a shortstop was still worth about 2 WAR per 150 games.

Neto avoided the IL in his breakout 2024 season and took off offensively around May, posting a 122 wRC+ from that point forward.  He logged over 1,300 innings at shortstop and was worth 3.5 WAR.  His baseball card stats were strong too, with 23 homers and 30 steals.

Statcast's Outs Above Average says Neto is a subpar defender in terms of range, suggesting he's not great at lateral movement.  The more holistic DRS sees Neto as a positive (we discussed OAA and DRS last week).  I don't get the impression his defense is considered a liability, and it probably won't limit his earning power much.

Neto underwent November shoulder surgery, making his season debut on April 18th as a result.  He's posted a 141 wRC+ in 152 plate appearances since then, which ranks 32nd in the Majors and fifth among shortstops.  He's on pace for 5.8 WAR per 150 games, which would make him a top-five shortstop in baseball.  In the small 2025 sample, Neto has traded contact for power, with a pace putting him close to 40 bombs over a full season.  Neto went from no red on his Statcast page last year to tons of it this year, with an expected slugging percentage that's actually higher than his already-excellent .542 mark.  The second-phase breakout seems real.

The Angels could hardly be accused of service time manipulation, having promoted Neto less than nine months after they signed him out of the draft.  Yet as it stands, he entered the season with one year and 170 days of Major League service, two days shy of two full years.  That means Neto will go through arbitration four times starting with the 2026 season, resulting in free agency after 2029.

Let's fire up the MLB Contract Tracker, our robust tool designed for this purpose, included with your subscription!

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This week's mailbag gets into Juan Soto's start, Chandler Simpson's profile, long shot potentially available ace-caliber starting pitchers, available relievers, what to make of Ivan Herrera, and much more.

Ralph asks:

What's your take on Juan Soto's lackluster performance to date?

My take is that it's much ado about nothing.

The first question is, exactly how lackluster is it?  Soto has a 132 wRC+ through 214 plate appearances.  He's out-hitting, say, Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellinger, guys whose performance fans generally seem content with.

Higher expectations for Soto are fair, given that he's the highest-paid player in baseball.  One problem that will likely persist with Soto is that many people do not appreciate the shape of his offensive contributions, because being second in the league in walks is boring.  I'm not accounting for park adjustments, but yes, it's a little better to hit eight home runs, nine doubles, and 26 singles with 38 walks in 214 PA (Soto) than it is to hit 12 home runs, two triples, 11 doubles, 21 singles, and 17 walks in 203 PA (Suzuki).

I don't think most WFAN callers are looking at wRC+, but I don't otherwise know how you'd easily weigh those two stat lines.  Soto does sometimes experience modest power outages, like when he slugged .452 in 2022 (including .390 for the Padres) yet still managed a 146 wRC+.

The fact remains that Soto is not hitting like a superstar even if we give proper weight to his walks.  To simplify, the "problem" is that he's slugging .437 over 214 PA, and we expect him to slug, say, .545 as he did from 2023-24.  And it is true that during 2023-24, Soto never had a span of 48 games/214 PA where he slugged below .461.

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This week's mailbag gets into potential starting pitcher trade targets for the Cubs, possible left-handed bats for the Astros, which Rangers have trade value, infield options for the Yankees, and the Mets' reported connection to Luis Robert Jr.

Colin asks:

As great as Colin Rea and Matt Boyd have been this season, the Cubs need more starting pitching, especially with Steele out for the year and Imanaga out for a couple more turns through the rotation. Sandy Alcantara seems like an obvious shout, but he has struggled so far this year. Who else could the Cubs feasibly target?

Marc asks:

Do you think the Cubs can survive til the trade deadline considering the perilous situation their in with starters?

I do think the Cubs can survive until the trade deadline with a rotation of Matthew Boyd, Colin Rea, Ben Brown, and Jameson Taillon, with Imanaga probably rejoining sometime in June.  I also don't think they have much of a choice, as sellers rarely make early deals.

But yes, the Cubs need to add a starter this summer.  Boyd has not topped 88 innings in a season since 2019, a threshold he's projected to reach on June 25th.  I made the case in March that Boyd's recent injury history doesn't necessarily mean he can't get to 150+ innings, but he is 34 and the Cubs' depth can't be pushed much further.  Ben Brown has never exceeded 104 innings, and he's on pace to get there by the end of July.  Cade Horton's career high is 88 1/3 innings in 2023.  In his next outing he'll pass last year's total of 34 1/3 frames.

The following teams have less than a 1% chance at the playoffs, so most of them could probably be persuaded to trade a starting pitcher now: the White Sox, Nationals, Marlins, Pirates, and Rockies.  The Angels belong here as well, but since they're 4.5 games out of a wild card, perhaps they'll need more time to wave the white flag.  Here's a look at starting pitchers who might be available from these clubs:

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This week's mailbag gets into the first base situation in Boston, Sandy Alcantara's rough start, options for the Cubs at third, lefty reliever possibilities for the Mets, and much more.

Clarke asks:

Surely the Gonzalez/Toro tandem is not the answer at first base for the Red Sox and Cora says Devers isn't moving out of DH. They are thin in the minors at 1B. Your poll yesterday showed pretty even opinions (inside and outside organization) for solutions. What say you? External options?

Cornelius asks:

Isn’t the only reasonable path for Anthony is moving Devers off DH (1st base) and using the DH for the 4th outfielders (Anthony, Abreu, Duran, and Rafaela)?

Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic noted, "Before Tuesday’s game, [Red Sox manager Alex] Cora said that he’s had no discussions with Rafael Devers about moving to first base. Devers has been asked by the media to discuss the matter, but so far he has declined to talk."

At the risk of sounding like a talk radio guy, this is the big leagues, and Devers should step up and volunteer to learn first base immediately.  The Red Sox have a 45% chance at the playoffs right now, and making suboptimal choices or waiting too long could cause them to fall short.  For the second time this year, the Red Sox seem to be scared of offending Devers by mandating he do what's best for the team.  As of this writing, the Red Sox haven't even had the first base discussion with Devers!

Clearly, Devers does not take position changes lightly.  From Boston's perspective, I get treading carefully with a star player who is signed through 2033.  But Devers learning first base is better than putting it on a 20-year-old prospect like Roman Anthony.  Anthony has little left to learn in Triple-A and can easily join an outfield/DH rotation in Boston.  Opening up DH also works as a way of getting Masataka Yoshida's bat into the lineup sooner.

You've seen the speculation on external options.  Chris Cotillo of MassLive had a reasonable list, naming guys like Anthony Rizzo and Jon Singleton.  The Red Sox can also look at trading for older players who are mashing at Triple-A and haven't really gotten a shot in the Majors yet, like Otto Kemp, Tim Elko, or Matt Lloyd.  Who else might make sense?

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This week's mailbag gets into Dalton Rushing's future with the Dodgers, the Phillies' rotation, Kyle Tucker's earning power, the Giants' offense, the Rockies' potential run at history, and much more.

Matthew asks:

Since they've played Dalton Rushing in the outfield and 1st base, why don't they position him at 3rd? Johnny Bench played 3rd and catchers sometimes make a good transition to that position.

Rushing is said to have "above-average arm strength" and "reliable hands," per Baseball America.  He never did dabble at third base at the University of Louisville, despite spending his first two years there backing up Henry Davis at catcher.  This year at Triple-A, Rushing has spent 102 innings at catcher, 26 at first base, and one in left field.  Rushing did see ample time at both catcher and left in 2024.

It's usually a lack of range that results in a catcher moving to first base rather than third.  BA noted a 28.4 feet per second sprint speed for Rushing in Triple-A last year, so he's faster than most MLB third basemen.  Of course, sprint speed is not range, and I just don't know how Rushing would rate in that regard at third.

Johnny Bench never really did make the transition to third base.  He only topped 319 1/3 innings there once, when he reached 858 2/3 as a 34-year-old in 1982.

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