Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag News & Rumors

This week's mailbag looks at potential Kyle Tucker suitors, the chances of the Yankees retaining Cody Bellinger and Trent Grisham, the Angels' history in free agency, extension ideas for the Royals and Cardinals, and what the future holds for the Twins.

Colin asks:

Where are some realistic landing spots for Kyle Tucker this offseason?

Why not just assess the viability of Tucker for all 30 teams?  I'm sure Tucker's agents at Excel Sports Management already have.

• White Sox: In their June statement, the team said that Justin Ishbia "will make capital infusions into the White Sox as a limited partner in 2025 and 2026 that will be used to pay down existing debt and support ongoing team operations."  The team's long-term books are already clean.  Could Ishbia announce his presence by signing Tucker to a contract worth perhaps more than six times the team's current record deal of $75MM? Chalk it up as highly unlikely, yet still more likely than it's been in a long time.
• Guardians: No chance.
• Tigers: The club's dalliance with Alex Bregman last winter was notable, but that still wouldn't have been a top-three free agent deal.  Tucker is highly unlikely here based on how the Tigers have operated since Mike Ilitch passed away in 2017.
• Royals: No chance.
• Twins: No chance.
• Orioles: Payroll-wise, the Orioles could manage this, but we've been saying that sort of thing for a while now.  We've only seen one offseason under David Rubenstein, and it topped out with Tyler O'Neill's $49.5MM deal, but he could theoretically surprise us.
• Red Sox: On a team with Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, Roman Anthony, and Wilyer Abreu, signing Tucker doesn't seem to make sense.  The Red Sox were in on Juan Soto last winter, and Duran or Abreu could be traded, so we won't rule it out quite yet.
• Yankees: With Trent Grisham and Cody Bellinger up for free agency and Jasson Dominguez failing to assert himself, there is a reasonable case to be made here for Tucker.  There's enough payroll space to make it work as well.
• Rays: I was going to write "no chance" and move on, but Tucker is from Tampa and Patrick Zalupski should assume ownership of the Rays before the outfielder signs.  Given that Zalupski can't magically change the Rays' market size, he doesn't have a plan for a new stadium in place, and he doesn't have Steve Cohen type net worth, this is still pretty close to "no chance."
• Blue Jays: Nathan Lukes, Daulton Varsho, and Addison Barger make up a typical Jays outfield right now, with George Springer, Myles Straw, and Davis Schneider also drawing some starts and Anthony Santander on the IL.  Re-signing Bo Bichette or adding starting pitching would seem more urgent, but there's no particular impediment to the Blue Jays pursuing Tucker.  Plus, Excel did the Springer deal with the Blue Jays.
• Athletics: The A's made their statement last winter with a trio of $60-something million contracts (Luis Severino, Lawrence Butler, and Brent Rooker).  That's still a very far cry from Tucker's stratosphere, and he's not going to elect to make Sutter Health Park his new home for the next few years.
• Astros: There's no evidence the Astros got anywhere with extension talks when they had Tucker, and no reason to think Jim Crane will break precedent and give him a huge contract on the open market.
• Angels: With Anthony Rendon's contract almost off the books, could the Angels try for a major free agent once again?  There's no compelling reason to think so, but Arte Moreno is at least capable of swimming in these waters.
• Mariners: The Robinson Cano deal happened nearly 12 years ago; the Mariners would likely have to similarly bowl over the competition to convince Tucker to come there.  Consider it unlikely, but not absurd.
• Rangers: The Rangers are on track to stay under the CBT and thus reset their payor status.  Adding a fourth huge contract running into a player's late 30s might not be the best long-term move, and starting pitching seems more urgent, but a pursuit of Tucker can't be ruled out.

Moving on to the National League:

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This week's mailbag gets into the Cubs and Kyle Tucker, the Reds trading Nick Lodolo for a big bat this winter, Bo Bichette's contract, and offseason approaches for the Rays and Mets.

NE asks:

Do the Cubs and Kyle Tucker have any interest in an extension?

Tucker came out of the gates with a 157 wRC+ in 370 plate appearances through June.  That performance put him basically in a dead heat with fellow All-Star starter Pete Crow-Armstrong and Shohei Ohtani with 4 WAR, at which point all three players were in the NL MVP race.

Tucker jammed his right ring finger on a June 1st slide.  He continued to play well, but later revealed that "a week or two after that" x-rays found a hairline fracture.  The narrative around the injury remains confusing.

Tucker posted a 173 wRC+ in June, the best month of his season.  He homered on June 28th as part of a four-hit game.  Then he went on to hit just one home run over his next 172 PA.  So the idea is that Tucker played through this injury but it only began to sap his power four weeks later, perhaps due to some mechanical change to his swing.

By mid-August, Tucker was throwing his helmet, slamming his bat, failing to run out grounders, and getting booed by Cubs fans.  On August 18th, Cubs manager Craig Counsell announced the plan to give Tucker a mental reset on the bench.  The following day, Brewers manager Pat Murphy went on 670 The Score and said, "I think Tucker is hurt. I don't have any information, but Tucker's not the same. He's hurt, and he's playing through it. He's such a class kid that he probably doesn't mention it to anyone."

Murphy's comments caused the Cubs to fess up to Tucker playing through the hairline fracture.  It was just a very odd way for this to all go down: the injury that didn't manifest itself for four weeks, and the reveal coming from a rival team's manager who either made a really good guess or actually did have some information.

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This week's mailbag gets into extension possibilities, realignment problems, whether a Ketel Marte trade makes sense, Reid Detmers' future, and much more.

Greg asks:

With a good spring is there a possibility of the Pirates signing Konnor Griffin long-term and starting him on Day 1?

In Baseball America's August update, shortstop Konnor Griffin was ranked as the top prospect in all of baseball.  BA wrote, "Griffin has taken off like a meteor this season and his penchant for impact hasn’t slowed down even despite a promotion to High-A. The 19-year-old has made significant strides in allaying concerns about his hit tool and approach, and the rest of his overall game has evaluators buzzing as they envision how his plus power, speed and at least above-average defense at two different positions could come together."

Griffin has mostly played shortstop this year, with the occasional start in center field.  He posted a 156 wRC+ in A ball and got even better in High-A with a 169 mark.  Though he doesn't turn 20 until next April, Griffin got another promotion to Double-A this past weekend.

Given that Griffin has played one game in Double-A and the Altoona Curve only have 23 more on the schedule, putting him on the Pirates' Opening Day roster next year at age 19 would be aggressive, perhaps to the point of being detrimental.  Even Jackson Chourio played 122 games at Double-A and had a brief taste of Triple-A.  But let's explore the likelihood of an extension.

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This week's mailbag gets into a qualifying offer for Trent Grisham, the likelihood of the Reds signing Elly De La Cruz long-term, preseason projections consistently whiffing on the Brewers, how a lockout might affect free agency in 2026-27, what it might take to extend Alex Bregman, and much more.

Dmitry asks:

I keep seeing that the Yankees wont re-sign Trent Grisham. What is the downside to a QO? is 22 million for a 3 win CF in his prime on a one year deal really that bad?

Grisham, 29 in November, is on pace for a 2.8 WAR season in about 139 games.  He's missed some time on the paternity list and a few games due to a hamstring issue.

Grisham was widely seen as a non-tender candidate in the offseason, but instead accepted a $500K pay cut to land at $5MM on a pre-tender deal.  He had an 87 wRC+ from 2022-24 over 1,288 plate appearances.  Despite avoiding the IL in 2024, Grisham played in only 76 games for the Yankees, who had an outfield of Alex Verdugo, Aaron Judge, and Juan Soto.

Prior to this year, Grisham was more of a sub-2-WAR backup outfielder or bottom of the order regular who was not considered worthy of a $6MM salary.

The main wart on Grisham's season is that he's only hit like this (126 wRC+) once before, in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.  But Grisham has a career-low strikeout rate with career-best power, plus good Statcast metrics. Though he owes some of his success to a huge April, he's still managed a 113 wRC+ since.  The Yankees sat Grisham a fair bit against lefties last year, but not this year, and he's been tolerable against them.

Once one of the faster players in baseball, Grisham lost several steps in 2023 and now sits in the 33rd percentile for sprint speed.  That might partially explain why the two-time Gold Glover has a negative Outs Above Average mark for the first time in his career.  Defensive runs saved shows a similar story.

When it hasn't been Grisham in center field for the Yankees this year, it's been Cody Bellinger.  Bellinger figures to take a $5MM buyout over his final $25MM salary for 2026, meaning both outfielders will be free agents.  Assuming the Yankees don't want to give Harrison Bader another try, their main free agent alternative would be Cedric Mullins.  The trade market could feature Luis Robert Jr. and little else at center.

Internally, Spencer Jones would be the main option if both Bellinger and Grisham depart.  Jones, 25 in May, has torched both Double-A and Triple-A pitching this year, dropping his strikeout rate from 33.7% to 26.0% at the higher level.

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This week's mailbag covers Kyle Schwarber's impending free agency, what the Braves should do in the offseason, whether Trevor Story could opt out, why MLB killed August waiver trades, how Josh Naylor will fare in free agency, the potentially weak 2026-27 free agent class, the chances the Dodgers sign Kyle Tucker, the Rockies' young bats, and more.

Fred asks:

I can't believe that John Middleton will let Kyle Schwarber play anywhere else but Philly next year, especially with the overall drop in the Phillies' non-Schwarber power output this year. Does a 4/125 extension keep him away from free agency?

Schwarber turns 33 in March.  He's mashing this year like never before.  Schwarber has already reached his first 4 WAR season, should fly past 5 WAR, and won't be far off 6 WAR.  His previous career-high was 3.3 last year.  The bar is very high for offense when you have no defensive value.

Regarding the term, only two DHs age 33 and up have achieved four years in free agency: Nelson Cruz and Victor Martinez within a month of each other in December 2014.  They were actually age 34 and 36, respectively, so I guess that's a (weak) case to actually go to five years on Schwarber.

To Fred's question, yes - four years at $31.25MM per year should definitely keep Schwarber away from free agency.  The Phillies have a $185MM CBT payroll for next year at the moment, given Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, Ranger Suarez, Jordan Romano, and others coming off the books.  There would be room to give Schwarber a contract with a $30MM AAV, and it was Dave Dombrowski who did that ill-fated V-Mart deal with the Tigers.  But would this type of contract with Schwarber be a good idea?

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Our final subscriber mailbag before the trade deadline gets into the Guardians trading Steven Kwan and Shane Bieber, what's next for the Yankees, Giants, and Cubs, Dave Dombrowski's approach toward trading top Phillies prospects, and positives for the Braves.

John asks:

Where does Cleveland go from here? Kwan isn't signing long term. Clase may be lost. Will Santana be dfa for Kayfus?

Robb asks:

Would the Guardians be more receptive to dealing Steven Kwan if the Dodgers take Shane Bieber off their hands? Even so, I doubt anything less than Dalton Rushing would interest the Guardians as a starting point.

In a recent report, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic said Kwan is drawing a ton of interest, and Emmanuel Clase's non-disciplinary leave might increase the chances of a trade.

Kwan, 28 in September, is earning $4.175MM this year and is under team control through 2027.  Though he's not a flashy player, Kwan has been worth about 4 WAR per 650 plate appearances in his career and this season is no different.

Trading Kwan would be risky for the Guardians, as the franchise has failed to find or produce an outfielder of this caliber since perhaps Michael Brantley.  Nor will Kwan's arbitration salaries be prohibitive, even for the Guardians.  The next big hopes are Chase DeLauter, who may be out for the season due to a hamate fracture, and Jaison Chourio, who has yet to succeed at High-A.

Still, trading players with Kwan's service time is the circle of life for the Guardians, so I imagine if someone offers multiple cornerstone top-100 prospect type players (especially position players), they'll take a hard look at it.

Carlos Santana is 39 and he's been terrible since June, so I could see a DFA in the offing.  The Guardians may first attempt some of the $4MM he's still owed this year.  C.J. Kayfus, 23, has done nothing but rake in the minors, though his Triple-A strikeout rate is high at 28%.  It'd make sense to give Kayfus a look this year, unless the team is trying not to start his service time clock.

What will happen with Bieber, one of the more intriguing trade targets of the 2025 deadline?

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This week's mailbag covers Yankees prospect Spencer Jones, comps for a Mason Miller trade, and trade deadline situations involving the Angels, Blue Jays, Cubs, and Dodgers.

Angel asks:

Do you believe the Yankees now view Spencer Jones as untouchable? His trajectory is so similar to Judge's, but I'd sign right now for 75% of Judge.

Jack asks:

Why does it feel like lots of the Yankees prospects don’t pan out in the MLB? Do you believe it’s because they’re overhyped, poor player development, a mix of both, or something completely else?

Sandy asks:

Volpe made another critical error last night. He seems to wilt under pressure in clutch defensive situations even if his dWar is positive at 0.8. Are the Yankees having second thoughts about their long-term shortstop? Should they? His bat has never been up to league average. Thanks!

Charles asks:

What would it take for the Yanks to get Bednar, Keller, and IKF in a package from the Pirates? It seems that if they are going to be contenders they need something like that.

Jones  is an interesting and polarizing prospect.  His stock seemed to drop in 2024, as he spent the season at Double-A and posted a 127 wRC+ with a whopping 36.8% strikeout rate.

In another 208 PA at the level this year, Jones still struck out 33.7% of the time, but posted a massive 186 wRC+ to earn a Triple-A promotion.  That came on June 27th.  He has since annihilated Triple-A pitching with a 205 wRC+, which includes 10 home runs in 79 PA.  His strikeout rate for the RailRiders is down to 26.6%.

The sample size makes this tricky.  Jones tinkers with his swing a lot, but 79 PA isn't enough to say that he's truly cut the strikeouts.  If he'd struck out five additional times in Triple-A - one additional time every three games -  his K% would be 32.9.

The error bars on Jones are wide, but the odds are currently stacked against him becoming a star.  Jones' Double-A sample is still bigger than his Triple-A one.  Let's see if we can find some comps who struck out at least 30% of the time at Double-A at age 24 or younger while posting a 130 wRC+ or better.

• 2014: Joey Gallo
• 2015: Will Swanner
• 2016: Yoan Moncada, Dylan Cozens, Nellie Rodriguez
• 2017: Eric Haase
• 2019: Colton Shaver, Riley Adams, Vince Fernandez, Drew Ward

Gallo and Moncada at least had a few star-caliber seasons in the Majors between them.  Otherwise, these guys did not become stars or even MLB regulars.  They also did not cut their strikeout rates and dominate Triple-A pitching, so if Jones keeps that up he'll be charting a new trajectory.

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This week's mailbag gets into relief options for the Tigers, whether the Nationals should trade MacKenzie Gore, and the trade value of Athletics JJ Bleday and Luis Severino, as well as questions involving the Astros, Reds, Rangers, Cubs, and Red Sox.

Colin asks:

A few days ago, the Dodgers traded Noah Davis to the Twins for cash.  Davis was not at all successful with the Dodgers.  Can you tell me how much cash a team typically gets in a situation like that?

I ran this question by a front office friend.  He replied, "The dollar amount received by clubs trading away a DFA’d player for cash considerations almost always falls between $55,000 and $100,000.  There’s little incentive for clubs to trade the player for anything less than $50,000 because the club will receive that amount if the player is claimed off waivers. MLB caps cash transactions in this situation to a maximum of $100,000. Thus, most cash transactions of this nature end up in the $55,000 to $100,000 range."

Barry asks:

I really feel that Detroit needs two bullpen arms, one of which could close out games or be in the closing mix and match what AJ does. Any insight as to who the Tigers are looking at? I am thinking that David Bednar is the type of pitcher Detroit likes, controlling the strike zone, low walks.

Michael asks:

Coming out of the break, the Tigers have the best record in baseball and the biggest division lead. Nobody had that on their bingo card. In light of that, what should be Detroit's plan for the next two weeks? Should they swing for the fences and if so, how? Or look to add a piece here and there but not mortgage the future (or empty the farm) in favor of adding big names now?

The Tigers definitely need to add late inning relievers who can miss bats.  There's a good case to be made for signing David Robertson, who is reportedly throwing for interested teams.

The average MLB reliever punches out 22.4% of batters faced and has an 11.3% swinging strike rate.  We saw trade rumors on Mason Miller of the Athletics last summer; his K% is over 40%.  He's under team control through 2029, though, so the A's have no reason to trade him now unless they feel they're selling high or received an offer they can't refuse.

The Orioles' Felix Bautista is under team control through 2027.  He has a huge strikeout rate as well, but walks even more batters than Miller.  Bautista's teammate Seranthony Dominguez is in that same class.  A free agent after the season, Dominguez seems a lock to be dealt.  Same goes for Gregory Soto, so it makes sense for Scott Harris to be blowing up Mike Elias' phone.

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This week's mailbag gets into the Cardinals' deadline approach, the lefty relief market, offseason ideas for the Rangers, the Mariners trading Julio Rodriguez, who the Yankees could give up in trades, Bo Bichette's future, and much more.

Rich asks:

With two bad performances by starting pitchers, Miles Mikolas and Erick Fedde, will the Cardinals seek a trade for at least one veteran starting pitcher?

Sam asks:

Bernie Miklasz who seems pretty well sourced was talking about the Cardinals potentially trading Nootbaar. If they do that, what sort of return would the Cardinals get? His results are not good but his statcast data is great.

At the time of this writing, the Cardinals are 1.5 games out in the wild card with a 33.5% chance at the playoffs.

The first question reminds me a bit of the 2021 season, when John Mozeliak's Cardinals reached deadline day as a .500 club with just a 2-3% chance at the playoffs.  The club picked up veterans Jon Lester and J.A. Happ at the deadline, with Mozeliak saying, "We wanted to try to do it in a way that we wouldn't be giving up a lot of future talent; that was something that was sort of critical in our decision-making. Needless to say, today we felt like we took a couple steps forward without having to sacrifice our future."

The 2021 team went 39-21 from July 30th onward before losing the (lone) NL Wild Card game against the Dodgers.  Lester and Happ gave the Cardinals exactly what they wanted: innings.  Innings are generally what Mikolas and Fedde provide, having combined for 349 of them last year.  Sonny Gray has been excellent, while Matthew Liberatore and Andre Pallante have been solid.

Mikolas and Fedde do deserve ERAs around 5.00, and there's logic to seeking an upgrade - either one controllable beyond this year, or one in the Lester/Happ mold who doesn't cost much.  In my recent Cubs Trade Deadline Outlook, I named just about every potentially available starting pitcher I could think of, though Steve Adams suggested I add Drew Rasmussen.  The Cardinals have a very real shot at reaching the playoffs this year - perhaps more than they expected coming into the season - and I do think they should add a starter.

In an article Monday, Katie Woo of The Athletic noted that Fedde may not take his next turn in the rotation, and Mikolas shouldn't feel comfortable either.  Michael McGreevy is the next man up.  The 25-year-old has excelled in Triple-A and can probably do better than Fedde.

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This week's mailbag is a bit of a hybrid. MLBTR founder Tim Dierkes handles the first handful of questions, while Anthony Franco takes the final few to round it out. We'll get into the Braves' continually sinking playoff chances, trade possibilities for the Cubs, Roki Sasaki's disappointing debut season, deadline outlooks for a handful of bubble teams, and much more!

Kevin asks:

Should the Braves attempt a rebuild, move on from some of the core that is underperforming again and develop a new draft philosophy? Maybe draft some hitters?

Phillip asks:

I am a Braves Fan, win or lose and I watch them every night. This season and the season they won the World Series are 2 different entities. Why would the Braves not trade Raisel Iglesias and Marcell Ozuna? I mean we have so many weaknesses, we have 3 starting pitchers, bottom of our lineup is worst in baseball and our relievers are among the worst in baseball. What could we get for Ozuna and Iglesias?

It's worth considering that the 2021 Braves were 30-35 with 12% playoff odds on 6-16-21.  On 7-2-21, that had risen to 40-41 with a 20.6% chance at the playoffs.  The current team is worse at 38-46, but still holds a 17.2% chance at the playoffs.  It's not that different from where the World Series-winning team once was.

Still, the Braves are 7.5 games out in the Wild Card.  They've played like a 73-win team.  To have a shot at the playoffs they'd need to play more like a 100-win team.  I'm more on the side of Braves fans here than I am on the side of FanGraphs Playoff Odds.  And these guys wrote in before news of Spencer Schwellenbach's injury.

Ozuna, 34, has experienced a power outage this year.  However, his expected slugging percentage is .487 versus his actual .392 mark, and I assume he'll be fine.  He's a DH-only rental making $16MM, so my guess is that he'd bring in 40-grade type prospects.  Iglesias is 35 and making the same money.  His velocity and strikeout rate are slipping, and somehow 18.4% of his flyballs have left the yard.  I think he'd be a pure salary dump.

So while I don't think the Braves will make the playoffs, I also don't think they're re-stocking the farm system by trading Ozuna and Iglesias.

As for Kevin's question, let's do a mini-assessment of the Braves' core, with the player's 2026 age in parentheses.  Money owed in 2025 is not included.

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