Tim Dierkes' MLB Mailbag

This week's mailbag gets into Juan Soto's start, Chandler Simpson's profile, long shot potentially available ace-caliber starting pitchers, available relievers, what to make of Ivan Herrera, and much more.

Ralph asks:

What's your take on Juan Soto's lackluster performance to date?

My take is that it's much ado about nothing.

The first question is, exactly how lackluster is it?  Soto has a 132 wRC+ through 214 plate appearances.  He's out-hitting, say, Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellinger, guys whose performance fans generally seem content with.

Higher expectations for Soto are fair, given that he's the highest-paid player in baseball.  One problem that will likely persist with Soto is that many people do not appreciate the shape of his offensive contributions, because being second in the league in walks is boring.  I'm not accounting for park adjustments, but yes, it's a little better to hit eight home runs, nine doubles, and 26 singles with 38 walks in 214 PA (Soto) than it is to hit 12 home runs, two triples, 11 doubles, 21 singles, and 17 walks in 203 PA (Suzuki).

I don't think most WFAN callers are looking at wRC+, but I don't otherwise know how you'd easily weigh those two stat lines.  Soto does sometimes experience modest power outages, like when he slugged .452 in 2022 (including .390 for the Padres) yet still managed a 146 wRC+.

The fact remains that Soto is not hitting like a superstar even if we give proper weight to his walks.  To simplify, the "problem" is that he's slugging .437 over 214 PA, and we expect him to slug, say, .545 as he did from 2023-24.  And it is true that during 2023-24, Soto never had a span of 48 games/214 PA where he slugged below .461.

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This week's mailbag gets into potential starting pitcher trade targets for the Cubs, possible left-handed bats for the Astros, which Rangers have trade value, infield options for the Yankees, and the Mets' reported connection to Luis Robert Jr.

Colin asks:

As great as Colin Rea and Matt Boyd have been this season, the Cubs need more starting pitching, especially with Steele out for the year and Imanaga out for a couple more turns through the rotation. Sandy Alcantara seems like an obvious shout, but he has struggled so far this year. Who else could the Cubs feasibly target?

Marc asks:

Do you think the Cubs can survive til the trade deadline considering the perilous situation their in with starters?

I do think the Cubs can survive until the trade deadline with a rotation of Matthew Boyd, Colin Rea, Ben Brown, and Jameson Taillon, with Imanaga probably rejoining sometime in June.  I also don't think they have much of a choice, as sellers rarely make early deals.

But yes, the Cubs need to add a starter this summer.  Boyd has not topped 88 innings in a season since 2019, a threshold he's projected to reach on June 25th.  I made the case in March that Boyd's recent injury history doesn't necessarily mean he can't get to 150+ innings, but he is 34 and the Cubs' depth can't be pushed much further.  Ben Brown has never exceeded 104 innings, and he's on pace to get there by the end of July.  Cade Horton's career high is 88 1/3 innings in 2023.  In his next outing he'll pass last year's total of 34 1/3 frames.

The following teams have less than a 1% chance at the playoffs, so most of them could probably be persuaded to trade a starting pitcher now: the White Sox, Nationals, Marlins, Pirates, and Rockies.  The Angels belong here as well, but since they're 4.5 games out of a wild card, perhaps they'll need more time to wave the white flag.  Here's a look at starting pitchers who might be available from these clubs:

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This week's mailbag gets into the first base situation in Boston, Sandy Alcantara's rough start, options for the Cubs at third, lefty reliever possibilities for the Mets, and much more.

Clarke asks:

Surely the Gonzalez/Toro tandem is not the answer at first base for the Red Sox and Cora says Devers isn't moving out of DH. They are thin in the minors at 1B. Your poll yesterday showed pretty even opinions (inside and outside organization) for solutions. What say you? External options?

Cornelius asks:

Isn’t the only reasonable path for Anthony is moving Devers off DH (1st base) and using the DH for the 4th outfielders (Anthony, Abreu, Duran, and Rafaela)?

Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic noted, "Before Tuesday’s game, [Red Sox manager Alex] Cora said that he’s had no discussions with Rafael Devers about moving to first base. Devers has been asked by the media to discuss the matter, but so far he has declined to talk."

At the risk of sounding like a talk radio guy, this is the big leagues, and Devers should step up and volunteer to learn first base immediately.  The Red Sox have a 45% chance at the playoffs right now, and making suboptimal choices or waiting too long could cause them to fall short.  For the second time this year, the Red Sox seem to be scared of offending Devers by mandating he do what's best for the team.  As of this writing, the Red Sox haven't even had the first base discussion with Devers!

Clearly, Devers does not take position changes lightly.  From Boston's perspective, I get treading carefully with a star player who is signed through 2033.  But Devers learning first base is better than putting it on a 20-year-old prospect like Roman Anthony.  Anthony has little left to learn in Triple-A and can easily join an outfield/DH rotation in Boston.  Opening up DH also works as a way of getting Masataka Yoshida's bat into the lineup sooner.

You've seen the speculation on external options.  Chris Cotillo of MassLive had a reasonable list, naming guys like Anthony Rizzo and Jon Singleton.  The Red Sox can also look at trading for older players who are mashing at Triple-A and haven't really gotten a shot in the Majors yet, like Otto Kemp, Tim Elko, or Matt Lloyd.  Who else might make sense?

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This week's mailbag gets into Dalton Rushing's future with the Dodgers, the Phillies' rotation, Kyle Tucker's earning power, the Giants' offense, the Rockies' potential run at history, and much more.

Matthew asks:

Since they've played Dalton Rushing in the outfield and 1st base, why don't they position him at 3rd? Johnny Bench played 3rd and catchers sometimes make a good transition to that position.

Rushing is said to have "above-average arm strength" and "reliable hands," per Baseball America.  He never did dabble at third base at the University of Louisville, despite spending his first two years there backing up Henry Davis at catcher.  This year at Triple-A, Rushing has spent 102 innings at catcher, 26 at first base, and one in left field.  Rushing did see ample time at both catcher and left in 2024.

It's usually a lack of range that results in a catcher moving to first base rather than third.  BA noted a 28.4 feet per second sprint speed for Rushing in Triple-A last year, so he's faster than most MLB third basemen.  Of course, sprint speed is not range, and I just don't know how Rushing would rate in that regard at third.

Johnny Bench never really did make the transition to third base.  He only topped 319 1/3 innings there once, when he reached 858 2/3 as a 34-year-old in 1982.

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Today's mailbag gets into Nolan Arenado's future with the Cardinals, offensive struggles for the Rangers and Red Sox, hot starts for the Angels and Giants, and much more.

Sam asks:

Arenado is off to a pretty good start with his surface level stats but his batted ball profile is still pretty bad. Barring an injury to a third baseman on a contender, is he going to be playing for the Cardinals for the next 3 years?

Arenado, 34 today, has an excellent 136 wRC+ through 74 plate appearances.  His Statcast numbers have always been middling since he was traded to St. Louis four years ago.  As you know, the Cardinals tried to move Arenado during the offseason, both to save money and open up playing time for younger players.  Arenado wasn't willing to say yes when asked to approve a trade to the Astros in December, and no deal materialized with the four other teams on the third baseman's list.

In February, Katie Woo of The Athletic reported that the Cardinals "had conversations with at least nine organizations" about Arenado during the offseason.  Woo said the other four teams on Arenado's list besides the Astros were the Dodgers, Red Sox, Padres, and Yankees.  The rigidity of Arenado's list is confusing.  He said, "I don’t see myself changing that list ever. I have a family now. … To be willing to pick up my family and move them, it has to be something that’s worth it."  Arenado is clearly not bound entirely by geography, having chosen teams on both the East and West coast.  But let's look at some playoff odds from when the season opened:

• Astros: 53.5%
• Dodgers: 97.6%
• Red Sox: 56.2%
• Padres: 35.1%
• Yankees: 62.3%
• Cardinals: 23.2%
• Tigers: 46.6%
• Royals: 41.8%
• Angels: 10.5%

Is it fair to say that for Arenado to leave the comfort of St. Louis he needs what he considers a strong chance at winning the World Series, but he might accept a lesser chance for a team near where he grew up, such as the Padres?  What makes this tricky is that Arenado seems to have developed his own playoff odds.  Playoff odds are not reliable in the best case, and Arenado is probably worse at this than FanGraphs.

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This week's mailbag gets into PTBNL trades, the Brewers' recent trade history, the Mariners' inactivity, and questions about players such as Jordan Romano, Andy Pages, and Brett Baty.

Scott asks:

When a trade happens that includes a Player to be named later or cash considerations, like between the Red Sox and Brewers, how is it determined which goes - a player or cash? Seems like that would have to be predetermined to ease the negotiations, but the implication in the title implies it's a decision to be made later?

I posed Scott's question to an team executive friend, and he kindly gave a great in-depth reply.  Here it is:

"There are two PTBNL / Cash constructs that are most common. The first is where one of the clubs involved in the trade gets to choose one or more players from an agreed upon list. The agreed upon list is determined at the time of the initial trade. The club receiving the PTBNL has the right to instead receive “alternative cash considerations” that cannot exceed $100k. The option to receive cash comes into play only if the club with the right to receive the PTBNL decides they don’t want any of the players within the previously agreed upon grouping. This outcome could occur if one or more of those players suffers an injury or other plight whereby they are no longer of interest to the club holding the right to acquire them. By way of example, if Team A has the right to pick either Player X or Player Y as the PTBNL, but both players have suffered significant injuries since the time the trade was agreed upon, then Team A might rather take the cash rather than an injured player.

The second primary construct where you see a PTBNL or Cash involved in a trade occurs if the trade is really just for cash, but the team set to receive the cash wants to “dress it up” a little bit. This situation could occur if the team is trading away a notable player and needs to make it look like there’s a more significant return than simply money coming back their way. In these situations, the two clubs involved in the trade can agree to phrase the trade as a PTBNL or Cash despite both clubs agreeing that the return will be cash only.

A PTBNL is not always a low-level player. The only restriction is that a PTBNL cannot be someone who has appeared on an active Major League roster between the time the trade was agreed to and the time he is sent to his new club."

Zack asks:

How long of a leash should the Phillies have with Jordan Romano? He has lost velocity on his fastball and slider and he looks shaky when on the mound. Maybe it's a mechanics issue he can work through? He looks like he's searching for his form on the mound, I hope he can figure it out as we need him!

The tough thing is that Romano arguably hasn't been an effective reliever since June of 2023.  Rob Thomson hasn't used Romano in the club's highest-leverage situations thus far, but he still was Dave Dombrowski's main offseason bullpen addition.

Romano's elbow inflammation surfaced in March 2024.  He debuted in mid-April last year but was done after 15 appearances once the injury resurfaced.  He wound up having arthroscopic elbow surgery in early July.  The Blue Jays, who knew Romano best, didn't want him back at what would've likely been his same $7.75MM salary.  Around the Winter Meetings, Dombrowski gave Romano about $750K more than that.

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This week's mailbag gets into how long Paul Skenes will stay a Pirate, Alex Bregman opt-out scenarios, the NL East favorite, extensions for young Nationals players, potential Sandy Alcantara trade returns, the automated ball-strike system, and much more.

John asks:

I figure the Bucs' cheap owner will trade Skenes before his first arbitration year because he will never pay that kind of salary. If I'm right, when is his final year in Pittsburgh?

After the 2026 season, Paul Skenes will have three years of Major League service time and will be eligible for arbitration.  Barring an extension, Skenes and the Pirates will go through the arbitration process early in 2027, and his salary will take a huge leap that season.

How much of a leap is hard to predict not knowing what numbers Skenes will put up in 2025 and '26.  Remarkably, the first-time arbitration record for a starting pitcher remains Dallas Keuchel's $7.25MM from 2015, though prior to that Tim Lincecum at least topped $10MM as the midpoint between his $13MM filing figure and the Giants' $8MM.  Clayton Kershaw had a midpoint of $8.25MM once as well.  But the first-time starting pitcher arbitration market is not one that moves easily.

Arbitration eligible players are tendered contracts because they offer surplus value to their teams, star players included.  Corbin Burnes, for example, won the NL Cy Young award in 2021 and was paid $6.55MM in 2022, $10.01MM in '23 (after losing a hearing to the Brewers), and $15,637,500 in '24.

A healthy Skenes should be able to top Burnes' $32.2MM in total arbitration earnings, but even $45MM for that three-year period might represent a single season of what he could earn in free agency.

Say Skenes is a 6-WAR type player.  Bob Nutting has owned the Pirates since January 2007; what has happened with this team and similar players since he took over?

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Today's mailbag gets into the Nationals' offseason approach, the accuracy of preseason win projections, what Andrew Painter will do this year, the Royals' outfield, how small market teams can compete, the Yankees' third base situation, the Mets' rotation, and more.

Steve asks:

The Nationals have now spent over $50 million in this offseason on new acquisitions. Do you like their strategy of building depth with upside players with lower $ risk per player to keep the books clean for the coming years?

OTOH, they could have gone all in and met Bregman's rumored price of $210 million over 7 years, and had enough money for Nathaniel Lowe and Ogasawara and adding Finnegan, Lopez and Poche for their bullpen and skipped signing Sims for the bullpen and Bell for DH.

Which route do you like better?

Just to review, the Nationals added Trevor Williams, Mike Soroka, Kyle Finnegan, Josh Bell, Shinnosuke Ogasawara, Jorge Lopez, Lucas Sims, Amed Rosario, and Paul DeJong in free agency at a 2025 AAV cost of $38.75MM.  They also traded for Nathaniel Lowe, who is earning $10.3MM this year.

Despite adding $49MM in total '25 AAV, the team's CBT payroll is only $138MM.  The question is whether 2025 is/was the time for this team to pounce.  Owner Mark Lerner doesn't think so, based on comments made to Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post.  Referencing GM Mike Rizzo, here's what Lerner said to Svrluga:

“When Mike calls me in and says, ‘We really need to think about it,’ for next winter, we’ll talk about it,” Lerner said. “Right now, he doesn’t think — and I agree with him: There’s no point in getting a superstar and paying him hundreds of millions of dollars to win two or three more games. You’ve got to wait until — like Jayson. Jayson was right on the cusp of [the team] being really good, and it took us to the next level. That’s the ideal situation. It’s always on our mind.”  He paused. “You could get nauseous thinking about it,” he said, laughing.

Despite the additions, FanGraphs projects the Nationals for only 73 wins this year.  And even though - as I'll show later in the mailbag - teams sometimes outplay their projection by a dozen wins, that still might not be enough for a wild card.

The Nationals have three suspect lineup spots: Bell at DH, Keibert Ruiz at catcher, and Jose Tena/DeJong/Rosario at third base.  Bregman alone doesn't make this team a likely contender, and he turns 31 in March.  I don't think he fit as the team's Jayson Werth move.  I doubt Nolan Arenado would've accepted a trade to D.C., and he doesn't sense for this team anyway.

The Nats still owe $40MM to Ruiz and have a few catching prospects in the pipeline, so I can see why they didn't do anything there.  Likewise, adding a bigger bat than Bell might mean 74 or 75 wins instead of 73.

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