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Three Needs: Toronto Blue Jays

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We’re continuing with our “Three Needs” series, in which we take a look at the chief issues to be addressed for clubs that have fallen out of contention. Next up: the Blue Jays, who ran up 95 losses but also installed some highly promising core pieces at the MLB level.

[Toronto Blue Jays Depth Chart]

1. Open The Wallet For Starters

The Shapiro/Atkins regime has rarely lured significant starters with hefty promises, due in part to the organization’s need to transition away from some big preexisting commitments. (That task is now all but complete, with only eighteen million more Troy Tulowitzki dollars left to pay down.) To this point, J.A. Happ (3/$36MM) and Marco Estrada (2/$26MM) are the biggest pitching deals the current front office has done.

It’s time for more. With Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez finally dealt away, there’s a mile-wide opening in the rotation. The Jays may like their long-term outlook for graduating pitching talent, but at present the returning unit would be anchored by Trent Thornton and Jacob Waguespack. The 2019 Jays relied upon Clayton Richard, Edwin Jackson, Clay Buchholz, and a smattering of other pitchers to get through the season.

Bringing back Matt Shoemaker and/or adding another bounceback candidate is well and good, but if this club is going to make strides it’ll need to spend — perhaps significantly — to bring in multiple quality arms. Avoiding overly lengthy and massive entanglements may still be wise, but the club ought to be willing to take some financial risk with a short-term, high-AAV deal (as in the John Lackey-Cubs signing) and/or mid-length, lower-AAV contract (e.g., the Twins’ deal with Phil Hughes) — depending upon what’s achievable on the market.

2. Deal Ken Giles

This runs somewhat counter to the above point, but the Jays aren’t in a position to point the bus down the road and slam the gas. They still need to meander around and make some additional finds before moving on down the road. Spending on some starters will boost the quality of the team significantly in the near-term and enhance the outlook for the next few seasons. Hanging onto Giles for his final season of arbitration eligibility would be a luxury.

The Jays almost certainly would’ve dealt Giles this summer had it not been for an ill-timed injury episode. He bounced back and finished strong, wrapping up the campaign with a 1.87 ERA and 14.1 K/9 vs. 2.9 BB/9 over 53 innings. That’s high-end relief output. With 23 saves also finding their way onto his ledger, Giles is going to command a pretty big raise on his $6.3MM salary, so he’s not cheap. But think about it from a contenders’ perspective: would you rather take a one-time, ~$10MM shot on a 29-year-old with elite stuff or risk as much or more annually over a multi-year term for one of the best-available free agents? There’s value here for Toronto to cash in and it’ll probably make sense to do so this winter.

3. Take Risks In The Relief Corps

Giles’s own year-to-year volatility is emblematic of a broader phenomenon that is by now well-recognized. It helps boost the reasoning behind dealing him. It also provides cause to believe that the Jays can dig up real talent on the relief corps by taking some shots.

This is hardly a new strategy. The Jays have used it themselves of late, inking veterans David Phelps and Daniel Hudson (since spun off via trade) and acquiring castoffs such as Derek Law, Ryan Dull, and Brock Stewart. So … suggesting this isn’t exactly earth-shattering. But it’s not the right approach for every team and every situation. It does seem to fit perfectly for the Jays. If they move Giles, as suggested above, the team will be left without a single relief pitcher who turned in a clearly productive 2019 season.

There’ll be plenty of internal hurlers who will and should get to compete for jobs in camp, but the Jays can legitimately offer free agents an opportunity to step right into prominent late-inning roles. Splashing some cash on short-term relievers isn’t going to hamstring the club in the long run. Waiver claims and minor-league signings offer other routes to bringing in talent. The Jays can fill out their group for the spring, then make late-camp changes as other clubs make their own tough calls. There’s no real need to focus on stability — something the club will be hoping to establish on the position-player side in 2020 — so much as to grab the most, best talent and let it all play out.

AL Notes: Carrasco, Thornton, Castro, Trumbo

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Carlos Carrasco’s health situation was one of MLB’s most-followed off-field storylines in 2019. Stunningly diagnosed with leukemia this summer, Carrasco made a heartwarming return to the mound September 1 in Tampa Bay and has made ten appearances out of Cleveland’s bullpen since. The 32 year-old father of five verbalized the ups-and-downs of the past five months in an emotional piece for the Players’ Tribune, emphasizing the importance of leaning on his wife Karelis, other family, and friends- inside and outside baseball- for support along the way. Encouragingly, the well-respected Carrasco says he’s “back to feeling 100%” and no doubt figures to be a foundational piece for both the Indians and the Cleveland community at large in the future. The moving and courageous piece, in which Carrasco discusses the gutwrenching decision he and Karelis confronted of whether to tell their children of his diagnosis, is worth a full read.

  • Turning to strictly on-field matters across the American League, it seems Trent Thornton has pitched his way into the Blue Jays’ rotation plans for 2020, writes Kaitlyn McGrath of the Athletic. The rookie overcame a dreadful start to his MLB career to log a team-high 154.1 innings, working to a 4.84 ERA with pedestrian strikeout (22%) and walk (9%) rates. As McGrath notes, Thornton’s changeup has given him problems in the past and developing consistency with the offering will be among his offseason priorities. Thornton’s profile doesn’t scream future ace, but his durability and high-spin fastball and curveball make him a logical fit for a Toronto rotation that is lacking in certainty and rich in opportunity.
  • Another rookie who could be positioned for playing time on a rebuilding team is Tigers infielder Willi Castro. A September call-up, Castro hasn’t gotten off to an especially rousing start to his MLB career. He has, though, impressed manager Ron Gardenhire, who tells Chris McCosky of the Detroit News Castro will have a chance to compete for the Tigers’ shortstop job in spring training. The 22 year-old, whom Detroit acquired from Cleveland in 2018 for Leonys Martín, ranks as Detroit’s #11 prospect, per Baseball America. He hit a solid .301/.366/.467 this season in his first extended action in Triple-A.
  • On the opposite side of the service time spectrum is Orioles DH Mark Trumbo, who discussed the forthcoming end of his three-year contract with Baltimore Baseball’s Rich Dubroff. The 33 year-old tells Dubroff he’ll take some time off at the end of the season and gauge how his body feels before determining if he wishes to come back in 2020. So continues a pattern of noncommital responses on his future from Trumbo, who has been hampered by right knee problems for the last year-plus. That injury history means Trumbo will probably have to settle for a minor-league contract with a spring training invite if he does decide to give playing another go.

Injury Notes: Paxton, Hale, Hicks, Vlad Jr.

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Yankees ace James Paxton exited his final start of the season on Friday after just one inning because of left glute tightness, per MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch. Paxton’s removal was a precautionary measure, and were it not for the looming postseason matchup with the Twins, Paxton likely could have pitched through what he described as “dull soreness.” The rotation is New York’s biggest question mark going into the playoffs, and Paxton is clearly a key piece. He’s 15-6 with a 3.82 ERA/3.87 FIP across 150 2/3 innings for the season, landing fairly close to career marks both in terms of efficiency and durability. Paxton’s status as the likely ALDS game one starter is not at present affected by his early departure on Friday, though he will certainly be monitored closely, and one would think it might affect the amount of leash given him in the ALDS opener. In other injury news heading into Saturday’s action…

  • The Yankees PR department announced David Hale’s reinstatement from the 60-day injured list. Hale, 32, had a strong start to the season going 3-0 with a 2.89 ERA/3.30 FIP across 19 innings. He last pitched on July 26 against the Red Sox, finishing a strong month of July when he posted a 2.63 ERA. Hale has a part in two major storylines of the Yankees season, both as a resident of the overfull trainer’s room, and as one of the many unsung contributors to their 2019 success.  Aaron Hicks, meanwhile, was moved to the 60-day injured list. It’s been mostly a lost season for Hicks, who nonetheless contributed 1.2 bWAR in 59 games when healthy via a .235/.325/.443 line with 12 home runs.
  • Rookie fan favorite Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was scratched from today’s lineup with right knee soreness, tweets Ben Nicholson-Smith of sportsnet.ca. If Vlad Jr. misses both of the Blue Jays final games, he’ll finish his rookie season with a .272/.339/.433 line across 123 games while notching 15 home runs and 69 RBIs. His 105 wRC+ is not perhaps the world-breaking debut that many expected, but in effort and showmanship, Vlad Jr. more than held his own. His performance at the home run derby will go down as the defining moment of his rookie season, where he showed the national audience more than enough to justify the hype of the past few seasons.

Blue Jays Select Ryan Dull

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The Blue Jays have selected the contract of right-hander Ryan Dull and recalled right-hander Yennsy Diaz for the final few games of the season, tweets Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. Dull and Diaz will give the Blue Jays some extra arms to serve as reinforcements for a bullpen that has thrown 27 innings across the past three games thanks to a 15-inning marathon Monday and a series of openers being utilized. In order to make room for Dull on the 40-man roster, the Jays put Lourdes Gurriel Jr. on the 60-day injured list. Gurriel underwent an appendectomy this week and wasn’t expected to return before Sunday’s season finale.

This marks the latest roster move for Dull in a roller coaster couple of months. The veteran righty has bounced from Oakland to San Francisco to New York to Toronto on waivers since the beginning of August and finally cleared waivers within the past week after he was designated by the Jays. Dull didn’t appear in the big leagues with Toronto before being designated for assignment and sent outright off the 40-man roster. He’ll now have a chance to suit up as a Blue Jay and log a few extra days of big league service to close out the year, though he’ll quite likely be removed from the 40-man roster once again when the season concludes.

Brian Cashman On Yankees’ Deadline Interest In Marcus Stroman

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Considering the bevy of rumors linking Marcus Stroman to the Yankees before July’s trade deadline, it wasn’t a surprise rebuilding Toronto sent the right-hander to New York during the summer. It was, however, unexpected that Stroman ended up with the Mets instead of the Yankees.  It turns out the Yankees’ interest in Stroman – although real – wasn’t especially high, general manager Brian Cashman reveals to Yahoo Sports’ Wallace Matthews in a quality piece profiling the longtime executive.

“We were interested in Stroman but we didn’t think he would be a difference-maker,” Cashman said. “We felt he would be in our bullpen in the postseason.”

That’s an eyebrow-raising quote in regards to Stroman, who was plenty effective in the Yankees’ division – the American League East – from 2014-18. Despite Stroman’s successful track record, his remaining year and a half of affordable team control and the Yankees’ apparent need for starters, they held firm when the Jays “were demanding” outfielder Clint Frazier in a package for the hurler, Matthews reports. Frazier drew plenty of rumored interest from around the league before the deadline, at which point he was languishing in the minors, but he stayed put. While Frazier’s latest recall didn’t come until rosters expanded at the beginning of this month, he has picked up some starts of late as the Yankees’ outfield deals with injuries to Aaron Hicks and Mike Tauchman.

Whether the Yankees were right to seemingly prioritize Frazier over Stroman is up for debate. No matter which side you’re on there, it’s hard to have complete confidence in the AL East winners’ rotation – something they didn’t address at the deadline –  as the playoffs approach. The Yankees just lost Domingo German for the season because of a domestic violence investigation (though Cashman obviously couldn’t have foreseen that), and CC Sabathia will end his illustrious career in the bullpen after a rough, injury-plagued regular season as a starter. Sabathia’s fellow aged lefty, J.A. Happ, has joined him in struggling for most of this year, but Happ has rounded back to form lately. Even better than Happ’s recent success? Ace Luis Severino just debuted last week after a season-long battle with injuries, and James Paxton has been on a roll since mid-August.

In the event the Yankees need four starters in a postseason series, Severino, Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka (who hasn’t been great in 2019) and Happ will present their four best traditional options. While there’s a strong case that Stroman’s preferable to at least one member of that quartet, the Yankees didn’t regard him as enough of an upgrade to surrender significant young talent for him over the summer.

AL East Notes: Moreland, Jays, Hays

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First baseman Mitch Moreland’s time with the Red Sox is on the verge of ending, Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe suggests. The soon-to-be free agent is likely on his way out of Boston in favor of a “younger and cheaper” option, per Abraham, who lists Michael Chavis and prospect Bobby Dalbec as immediate possibilities. While Moreland’s position, age (34) and production won’t lead to a particularly lucrative trip to free agency, he’s not fretting about the open market right now. “It was bad the last two times I went into free agency and I came out of it with a job,” Moreland told Abraham. “I’m not really worried about it yet. I just want to enjoy this last week with these guys. It’s a great group. I’ll worry about the rest when I get there.” Moreland, who has earned $18.5MM on a pair of deals with the Red Sox since 2017, is finishing up an injury-limited year. He owns a .246/.325/.502 line with 18 home runs in 317 plate appearances thus far.

  • Blue Jays outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is out for the rest of the year with appendicitis, manager Charlie Montoyo told Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet and other reporters. While Gurriel struggled during a truncated second half (he just came back from a month-long absence because of a strained left quad), this will go down as an encouraging season for the 25-year-old. Gurriel slashed .277/.327/.541 line and swatted 20 homers in 343 PA, and he acquitted himself decently in his first experience as a major league outfielder (minus-2 Defensive Runs Saved, plus-0.3 Ultimate Zone Rating).
  • Third baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., yet another young Blue Jays building block, surprised over the weekend when he suggested via an interpreter he has never lifted weights. It turns out that isn’t the case, though. Guerrero clarified his prior remarks on Monday, telling Alexis Brudnicki of MLB.com and other media through an interpreter: “They wrote that I never lifted weights before. That sounds like ’before’ — never even in the Dominican, the States, with the team, and that wasn’t what I was saying. I was very clear, and I said that I never lifted weights in the offseason in Dominican Republic. I did a lot of other things, conditioning things, but weights at the gym, never did it before” (Sportsnet’s Arash Madani, whom Guerrero made his comments to last week, has the full transcript of their original conversation). Guerrero went on to state that he’ll add a weight program to his regimen this offseason in order to better prepare for the grind of a 162-game schedule. The 20-year-old has played in a professional-high 133 games between the majors and minors this season, including 120 with Toronto.
  • After a couple injury-ravaged years, it appears outfield prospect Austin Hays is working his way into the Orioles’ season-opening plans for 2020. Hays has only played a couple weeks in the majors this year, but he has made the most of it, as Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com writes. Indeed, with a .314/.364/.627 line and four home runs in 55 PA since his Sept. 7 call-up, the 24-year-old is “making a really strong case that he can play here,” manager Brandon Hyde told Melewski. It’s not just Hays’ marvelous late-season offensive production that has turned heads, though, as Hyde noted “he’s shown us that he can play center field defense.”

AL Notes: Yankees, Miley, Vladito

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Joel Sherman of the New York Post had an interesting profile today of a Yankees pitching staff at a crossroads (link). After losing Domingo German and Dellin Betances to suspension and injury, respectively, over the past several days, the AL East-champion Bombers find themselves with a pitching picture very much in flux. “I don’t look at it as frustrating,” pitching coach Larry Rothschild told Sherman. “I look at it as a problem to solve. We have to figure out what we are going to do. You would love to have those two guys obviously. But we don’t, so we have to move forward.” As Sherman points out, German’s loss may be particularly impactful, as his multi-inning ability may force skipper Aaron Boone to opt for a 13-man pen in the playoffs instead of a 12-man pen.

While Chad Green, J.A. Happ, Tommy Kahnle, Adam Ottavino, James Paxton, Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, Aroldis Chapman, and Zack Britton are all ’locks’ for the postseason staff, the final spots are more of a toss-up after the team’s loss of German and Betances. Luis Cessa, Cory Gearrin, Tyler Lyons, Stephen Tarpley, Ben Heller, and Jonathan Loaisiga are names floated by Sherman as possibilities to round out Boone’s October pen corps.

More notes from around the AL this Saturday eve…

  • The Astros are facing what the Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome deems a “full-fledged fourth starter crisis” after another uninspiring performance from the previously steady Wade Miley (link). In Saturday’s game against the Angels, Miley failed to complete more than one inning for the third time in four starts. The 32-year-old Miley had looked to be a coup for the Astros front office after signing a one-year/$4.5MM deal this offseason, with a 3.06 ERA through his first 156 innings this year. Unfortunately, the calendar’s turn to September has spelled doom for Miley, who has allowed 18 earned runs in 7 ⅓ September innings. Manager A.J. Hinch is voicing somewhat of a hedged belief in the experienced lefty: “We’re going to figure it out,” manager A.J. Hinch told Rome. “He’s going to be really effective for us. But given the time, it’s a difficult time to assess because he’s got one start left before we need to make some decisions.” Looking back, regression was probably coming for Miley all along, as those first 156 innings were undermined by a .263 BABIP and 4.36 FIP mark.
  • In a somewhat more humorous note to conclude tonight’s news, Sportsnet’s Arash Madani passes along an eyebrow-raising nugget concerning Blue Jays rookie Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Guerrero Jr., it seems, doesn’t owe his prodigious power to an intensive weight room regimen: “I’ve never worked out at the gym before,” Guerrero Jr. told Madani. “I’ve never lifted weights before.” While it’s roundly mystifying to consider that “Vladito” has achieved phenomenal athletic fame without ever committing himself to either a ’leg’ or ’upper body’ day, it still may be disconcerting to Jays fans taking a sidelong glance at the youngster’s to-this-point suspect defense. Vlad Jr. has logged a -4 DRS figure in 792 innings at third base this year, with 17 errors to his credit. Guerrero Jr. tells Madani that he will be newly committing himself to weight training this offseason with the intent of remaining at third base moving forward.

AL East Notes: Torres, Jays, Rays, Red Sox

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Another day, another alarming health situation for the Yankees. Second baseman Gleyber Torres left the team’s game against Toronto on Friday after slipping on the outfield grass and potentially suffering an injury to his right knee (video via MLB.com). Torres initially stayed in the game in the wake of his fourth-inning fall, but the Yankees removed him after the sixth. Injuries to stars has been one of the main themes of the Yankees’ season, but they’ve weathered all of them en route to 100 wins and an American League East championship. The Yankees are still playing for homefield advantage throughout the postseason, though, and will obviously aim for a World Series title once the playoffs arrive. With that in mind, New York can ill afford to lose one of the best middle infielders in baseball in the 22-year-old Torres. [UPDATE: Torres “felt a little weak in his lower legs,” manager Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch of MLB.com and other reporters. He’ll get checked out Saturday.]

Here’s more from the division…

  • Rob Longley of the Toronto Sun profiles Justin Smoak’s evolution into a clubhouse leader and mentor for the Blue Jays’ wave of upstart talents. Cavan Biggio and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are among the teammates who effuse praise for Smoak and the impact he’s already had on their young careers. “He’s a guy who has a relationship with every single guy in this locker room, no matter if they’re an up-and-down guy or if they’re playing every day,” Biggio says of Smoak. “It just shows how much he emphasizes being a good teammate and it just shows the kind of person he is overall.” Smoak fondly reminisces of the 2015-16 playoff runs and discusses how he and his family have come to consider Toronto a second home, though he also sounds like a veteran who recognizes the writing on the wall. MLBTR examined the pending free agent’s 2019 season earlier Friday.
  • The Rays are likely to activate right-hander Yonny Chirinos from the injured list Sunday, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets. Chirinos has been a starter for most of the year (a solid one at that), but he’ll work as a reliever for at the least the initial part of his return, according to Topkin. The Rays have been without Chirinos since they placed him on the IL on Aug. 5 with an inflamed middle finger on his pitching hand.
  • The Red Sox are “likely” to shut injured infielder Michael Chavis down for the season, per Steve Hewitt of the Boston Herald. Chavis will next take the field during winter ball in Puerto Rico, Hewitt adds. An oblique strain has kept the 22-year-old Chavis out of action since Aug. 11, and it appears his rookie campaign will end with a .254/.322/.444 line and 18 home runs in 382 plate appearances.
  • Blue Jays minor league righty Luis Quinones received an 80-game suspension after testing positive for the performance-enhancing drugs Nandrolone, John Lott of The Athletic reports. The ban will take effect at the beginning of the 2020 season. The 21-year-old Quinones was a 34th-round pick of the Jays this past June who produced stellar results in 36 2/3 innings between the rookie and low-A levels. He wrapped up his first professional season with a 2.95 ERA and 14.0 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9.

Blue Jays Claim Breyvic Valera, Designate Ryan Dull

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The Blue Jays announced that they’ve claimed infielder Breyvic Valera off waivers from the Yankees and, to create room on the 40-man roster, designated right-hander Ryan Dull for assignment. Toronto claimed Dull himself off waivers from the Yankees just two days ago. He’d yet to pitch in a game for the Jays.

The Yankees claimed Valera, 27, off waivers from the Giants back in May. He appeared in a dozen games for New York and hit .219/.324/.313 in a small sample of 37 plate appearances. The well-traveled Valera has appeared with four different big league teams in the past three seasons, having also spent time with the Orioles, Dodgers and Cardinals in addition to his minor league time with the Giants organization. He was one of the five players the Dodgers sent to Baltimore in last summer’s Manny Machado blockbuster, though it was clear even at the time that Valera wasn’t considered a vital piece for that trade, in which outfield prospect Yusniel Diaz was the headliner.

Dull, 29, has bounced from the A’s, to the Giants, to the Yankees and the Blue Jays via waivers in the past six weeks alone. The righty hasn’t had success in the Majors or in Triple-A this season, but he’s only a few seasons removed from looking like a quality bullpen piece in Oakland. While Dull has been tagged for 17 earned runs through just 11 1/3 innings in the big leagues this year and also has a 5.29 ERA across three Triple-A affiliates, he was one of Oakland’s best relievers back in 2016. That year, he tossed 74 1/3 innings of 2.42 ERA ball with nearly a strikeout per frame and just 1.8 BB/9. He’s since been hampered by shoulder and knee problems, but Dull has some MLB success and a minor league option remaining, so he could still land elsewhere via yet another waiver claim. If not, he’ll be able to elect free agency at season’s end.

Justin Smoak’s Strange Season

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Justin Smoak’s time with the Blue Jays is all but certain to come to an end when Toronto plays its final game this season. The rebuilding Jays will want to get a look at Rowdy Tellez, who has already begun to cut into Smoak’s playing time, and Smoak is set to become a free agent for the first time in his career.

As far as contract seasons go, Smoak surely can’t be thrilled with his results. He’s hitting .206/.342/.398 with 21 home runs on the year. At a time where seemingly everyone in the league has morphed into a power hitter, Smoak has cleared the fences 17 fewer times than he did in his 38-homer 2017 season. Waning playing time and a brief stint on the injured list have impacted that total, but the overall results aren’t ideal with free agency looming.

Smoak’s season, though, is also among the stranger you’ll come across when sifting through this year’s class of free agents. No one likes a .206 batting average, of course, but there’s also quite a bit to like about Smoak’s 2019 campaign. His 16.1 percent walk rate is the highest of his career by a long shot and is the sixth-highest of any qualified hitter in baseball. Smoak’s strikeout rate (21.1 percent) is down more than five percent from its 2018 level and is the second-best mark of his career. Only eight qualified hitters in baseball — Mike Trout, Alex Bregman, Mookie Betts, Joey Votto, Carlos Santana, Shin-Soo Choo, Tommy Pham and Daniel Vogelbach — have chased fewer pitches outside the strike zone than Smoak and his 22.9 percent clip. He ranks in the top 30 in terms of pitches per plate appearance (4.10). He’s been extremely disciplined at the plate.

A notable portion of Smoak’s struggles could be tied up in the fact that he’s had some poor luck on balls in play (.220). When looking into particularly egregious BABIP erosion, it’s common to see some trends that would portend to fewer balls dropping for hits — an uptick in infield flies, for instance, or for a player with Smoak’s skill set, perhaps a sharp increase in ground-balls. That hasn’t been the case, though. Smoak’s seven percent infield-fly rate is the second-lowest of his career, and his 36.9 percent ground-ball rate is actually down nearly three percent from 2018. His line-drive rate, correspondingly, is up nearly three percent. His fly-ball rate is right in line with his past four seasons.

So perhaps Smoak simply isn’t making good contact anymore? Not the case. Smoak’s overall percentage of balls hit at 95+ mph is down from 41.9 percent last year to 38.9 percent in 2019, but he’s upped his average exit velocity, improved his launch angle and very slightly improved his barrel rate, per Statcast. Smoak’s expected batting average of .242 and his expected slugging percentage of .472 (also via Statcast) dwarf his actual output. Among hitters with at least 100 plate appearances, the -.041 difference between Smoak’s actual wOBA (.325) and his expected wOBA (.366) is the ninth-largest. Put another way: Statcast considers Smoak among baseball’s unluckiest hitters in 2019. Not great timing for a player who’s about to hit free agency.

Of course, a poor season can’t be entirely blamed on rotten luck. Some of the struggles in terms of batting average are tied to aggressive shifting against Smoak — particularly when he hits left-handed (where he’s vastly better than from the right side). Smoak is MLB’s fourth-most shifted player when he bats lefty, and teams are shifting him 12 percent more often than in his monster 2017 season. As such, it’s barely been worth the effort for him to leave the box when he puts the ball on the ground. (I joke for the sake of hyperbole — run out your grounders, kids!)

Smoak is hitting .139 on grounders as a lefty and a ghastly .105 from the right side. Shifts are becoming more aggressive, more universally adopted and more precise; that’s going to hurt your plodding first basemen of the world, and Smoak is no exception. He’s already top-25 among qualified hitters in terms of fly-ball rate, but it’s easy to argue that he should strive to elevate even more. It’s also worth noting that Smoak is hitting .583 on line-drives, which sounds nice but is substantially south of the league average (.686) and his career rate (.711). Shifting likely plays a role there as well — but to a lesser extent. That’s one area where he seems likely to improve moving forward.

Given the leaguewide uptick in shifts over the past few years and Smoak’s decreasing speed, he’s probably never going to hit .270 like he did in 2017 (.270/.355/.529). But Smoak is also still making good contact and is more patient at the plate than he’s ever been before. He’s only been narrowly above replacement level this year by measure of wins above replacement, but there’s good reason to expect his bat to bounce back in 2020. The free-agent market has been particularly harsh for first base/DH types in recent winters, which could lead to someone getting themselves a nice bargain on Smoak.

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