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Blue Jays Rumors

Blue Jays Interested In Steve Pearce

By charliewilmoth | November 12, 2016 at 11:50am CDT

The Blue Jays have interest in free agent utilityman Steve Pearce, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. Pearce played DH, first base, second base and both outfield spots in 2016, also briefly appearing at third. Rosenthal notes, though, that the Jays could be interested in the right-handed Pearce (a career .269/.353/.499 hitter against lefties) as a platoon partner for Justin Smoak at first base. Pearce could also give the Jays insurance policies at a number of positions, given the potential departures of Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Saunders and Jose Bautista to free agency.

Pearce underwent forearm surgery in September, and his recovery time then was estimated to be four to six months. Any team signing him would surely have interest in how he’s progressing toward a return, since it appears there’s a possibility the injury could delay the start of his season. Even so, Pearce’s versatility and productive bat (he hit .288/.374/.492 in 2016 for the Rays and Orioles) would make him a solid complementary piece for many teams. MLBTR ranked Pearce the 42nd-best free agent available this winter, projecting he would receive two years and $10MM.

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Toronto Blue Jays Steve Pearce

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Blue Jays Sign Lourdes Gurriel Jr. To Seven-Year Deal

By Steve Adams | November 12, 2016 at 8:33am CDT

SATURDAY: The Jays have officially announced the deal.

FRIDAY: The Blue Jays have agreed to a multi-year contract with Cuban infield prospect Lourdes Gurriel Jr., reports MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (via Twitter). Gurriel, the younger brother of Astros infielder Yulieski Gurriel, is considered one of the top available international prospects and will receive a seven-year, $22MM contract from the Jays, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link).

That $22MM figure may seem like a relative bargain given Gurriel’s upside, but it’s worth noting that many Major League contracts of this nature allow the player in question to opt into arbitration once he is eligible (e.g. Jose Abreu, Yasiel Puig, Aroldis Chapman, Raisel Iglesias). It’s not clear if Gurriel obtained that right, but if he did, then the $22MM serves as a floor for what he’ll earn over the life of this deal, but he’d ultimately have the potential to earn quite a bit more when all is said and done.

Gurriel, a Wasserman client, was declared a free agent several months ago but waited to sign until after the completion of his 23rd birthday in order to be exempt from international spending limitations. Unlike his older brother, he’ll require some more time in the minor leagues before surfacing at the big league level. Gurriel is a career .277/.362/.426 hitter in Cuba and slashed an outstanding .344/.407/.560 in 245 plate appearances in his final season in Cuba — the 2015-16 campaign.

About 60 to 70 scouts representing more than 20 teams turned out at a showcase for Gurriel last month, during which he worked out at both shortstop and center field (though he’s also capable of playing second base and third base as well). He ran a 6.65 in the 60-yard dash and drew positive reviews on his physique and strong arm, though some scouts felt he needed more work against live pitching. Baseball America’s Ben Badler has penned scouting reports on Gurriel in the past (subscription required and recommended), giving praise to his bat speed, quality approach at the plate and strike zone management skills. Per Badler, Gurriel could eventually emerge as a high-OBP player with enough pop to hit 20-plus homers in a season.

Exactly where Gurriel fits into the Jays’ long-term plans remains to be seen. The Jays have shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, second baseman Devon Travis and center fielder Kevin Pillar all under club control through 2020, though Gurriel could eventually crack into the Majors in the corner outfield or in a super-utility role, spelling all three of the aforementioned players while also serving as an insurance policy for the injury-prone Tulowitzki and Travis.

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Blue Jays Reportedly Pursuing Kendrys Morales

By Steve Adams | November 11, 2016 at 2:08pm CDT

The Blue Jays are making a push for free-agent slugger Kendrys Morales, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). It’s unclear at this time exactly how the pursuit of Morales would impact the team’s talks with incumbent free agents Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista, but adding Morales would almost certainly rule out a return for at least one of that pair, if not both.

Morales, 33, got off to a slow start with the Royals this past season but caught absolute fire in June and slashed .300/.362/.550 with 24 homers over his final 98 games (94 starts). Outside of a rough April and May this year, his overall time with the Royals was quite productive, as he provided Kansas City with a .277/.344/.476 batting line over the life of his two-year, $17MM deal there. The Royals, of course, play in a very pitcher-friendly setting as well, so it stands to reason that Morales could see an uptick in his offense by moving to the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre and the generally more hitter-friendly American League East. The Blue Jays are also known to be seeking some left-handed bats to balance out their lineup, and the switch-hitting Morales would help them to accomplish that goal.

Earlier this week, the Jays were said to have made some progress in talks with Encarnacion after making a legitimate effort to keep him, though Encarnacion’s agent Paul Kinzer said his client sought a five-year deal and could be worth as much as $25MM per season. Morales, who hit 30 home runs in 2016, would come at a fraction of that price, though he also gets on base less often and does come with less pop in his bat than Encarnacion. The Jays could conceivably fit both onto their roster and push Justin Smoak to a pure bench role (or seek to trade him), though the Jays have a notable need in the outfield corners and signing a pair of designated hitters/first basemen would eat up quite a bit of their available funds without addressing their outfield needs.

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Toronto Blue Jays Kendrys Morales

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Free Agent Rumblings: Encarnacion, Beltran, Cespedes, Mets, Colon

By Jeff Todd | November 10, 2016 at 12:52pm CDT

The Blue Jays are still at the top of the list of free agent slugger Edwin Encarnacion, agent Paul Kinzer said in an appearance on Sportsnet 590 (audio available here). Toronto has made an offer, though it “wasn’t quite where [Encarnacion’s camp] wanted to be,” and it seems that there’s still some hope of a reunion. There are other suitors, but Kinzer notes that Encarnacion will weigh matters beyond the pure contract and that “there’s a short list of where he would go to.” Kinzer noted that the market has thrown some “curves” thus far. The Red Sox have been somewhat less aggressive than had been expected, the agent acknowledged, though he noted that some unexpected teams have been in talks. While it seems there’s a lot of ground still to cover, Kinzer suggested that a signing could come together by the start of the Winter Meetings — and might well take place sooner.

Here are a few more notes on some prominent free agents:

  • The Astros have serious interest in free agent outfielder/DH Carlos Beltran, according to Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. The Rangers still have Beltran on their radar, too, per that report. And the Red Sox remain intrigued by Beltran, but view him as one of many possible candidates, per Rob Bradford of WEEI.com (via Twitter). Boston is still casting a “wide net” in seeking a new DH. All told, it seems that the 39-year-old will have multiple options as he chases an elusive World Series title in what will be his 20th major league season.
  • Yankees GM Brian Cashman downplayed any connection between his organization and top free agent slugger Yoenis Cespedes, as Feinsand reports. Cashman acknowledges that there has been some contact, but characterized it as more of a routine opening of a channel to obtain medical information and perhaps pursue dialogue in the future.
  • The Mets had “preliminary talks” involving free agents Jose Bautista and Dexter Fowler over the last several days, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter). But the team remains focused on trying to engineer the return of Cespedes. GM Sandy Alderson met with his agent yesterday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com tweets. Meanwhile, rival organizations have reached out to New York to ask about the availability of lefty-swinging outfielders Michael Conforto, Curtis Granderson, and Jay Bruce, per Marc Carig of Newsday (Twitter links). It’s all supposition at this point, but there does seem to be some sense in the idea of signing a right-handed-hitting outfielder while dealing a lefty. The three possible targets noted above all hit from the right side (with Fowler also switching to the left side to face righties).
  • There have been some conflicting signals of late as to how interested the Mets are in bringing back veteran righty Bartolo Colon, but GM Sandy Alderson said today that there’s still interest, as MLB.com’s Barry Bloom reports. Still, it doesn’t seem as if there’s any sense of urgency, with Alderson suggesting the pitching market will have more clarity in a few weeks’ time. If the Mets don’t push to bring back Colon, the division-rival Braves may be there to step in, as MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweets that Atlanta has ongoing interest. (Of course, the team already landed an over-40 pitcher today.)
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Atlanta Braves Boston Red Sox Houston Astros New York Mets New York Yankees Texas Rangers Toronto Blue Jays Bartolo Colon Carlos Beltran Curtis Granderson Dexter Fowler Edwin Encarnacion Jay Bruce Jose Bautista Michael Conforto Sandy Alderson Yoenis Cespedes

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Minor MLB Transactions: 11/9/16

By Jeff Todd | November 9, 2016 at 2:51pm CDT

Time to catch up on some recent 40-man roster moves:

  • The Brewers outrighted righties Yhonathan Barrios and Ben Rowen as well as catcher Josmil Pinto, per MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert and Adam McCalvy. Barrios cracked the bigs briefly in 2015 but missed all of 2016 with shoulder issues. The 27-year-old Rowen has minimal major league experience, but did put up a strong 2.33 ERA with 7.0 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 over 58 minor league frames last year. As for Pinto, who’s also 27, he’s still waiting for another shot at the majors. His .308/.362/.517 batting line over 315 plate appearances could warrant interest.
  • Recently-claimed lefty Jed Bradley has been shipped to Triple-A and off of the Orioles’ 40-man, the team announced. Plucked from the Braves, where he briefly debuted last year, Bradley will be a useful stashed arm if a need arises.
  • The Indians announce that catcher Adam Moore was outrighted. He has one of the more interesting Baseball-Reference pages you’ll ever see. Since receiving significant time in 2010 with the Mariners, he has bounced around quite a bit but managed to appear in the majors in every seasons since. Yet Moore has accumulated just fifty total MLB plate appearances in that six-year span. He’ll surely land as a depth piece somewhere, if he doesn’t return to Cleveland.
  • Righty Dustin Molleken elected free agency after being outrighted by the Tigers. The 32-year-old finally reached the majors in 2016, allowing four earned runs on 12 hits and five walks against eight strikeouts over his 8 1/3 innings. Otherwise, he has spent the last five years pitching in Japan or the highest level of the minors.
  • The Twins outrighted right-hander Alex Wimmers, as Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press tweets. Wimmers threw his first 17 1/3 major league innings last year, putting up a 4.15 ERA with 14 strikeouts and 11 walks. In his 56 2/3 Triple-A frames on the year, he worked to a 3.97 ERA with 8.9 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9.
  • The Dodgers dropped righty Chin-hui Tsao from their 40-man roster, as MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick tweets. Now 35, Tsao has made just seven appearances over the last two seasons. All of his prior major league action came between 2003 and 2007.
  • Catcher A.J. Jimenez had his contract selected by the Blue Jays, per a club announcement. He had been removed from the 40-man last spring, but will now be added to prevent him from departing as a minor league free agent. Jimenez has been in Toronto’s system since 2008, but has yet to reach the majors. he posted a .241/.290/.377 batting line over 248 plate appearances at Triple-A last year.
  • The Giants added righty Ian Gardeck to their 40-man roster, as John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. He missed all of last year due to Tommy John surgery. Gardeck’s most recent showing came at the High-A level in 2015, when he pitched to a 3.54 ERA with 10.8 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 over 86 1/3 innings.
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Baltimore Orioles Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers Los Angeles Dodgers Milwaukee Brewers Minnesota Twins San Francisco Giants Toronto Blue Jays A.J. Jimenez Adam Moore Alex Wimmers Ben Rowen Chin-hui Tsao Dustin Molleken Ian Gardeck Josmil Pinto Yhonathan Barrios

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Yoenis Cespedes Rumors: Mets, Yankees, Nationals

By Jeff Todd | November 8, 2016 at 8:13pm CDT

We’ve heard that the Mets aren’t particularly interested in another protracted dalliance with outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, with GM Sandy Alderson saying that the team would prefer to know its course with regard to the superstar before the end of the Winter Meetings in early December. That’s still a month away, of course, but it certainly seems reasonable to expect that Cespedes’s market will move more quickly this offseason than it did last. Still, there’s no single, clear suitor (beyond the incumbent Mets) for his services, so there’s plenty of room for the market to develop — with trades and other signings potentially having a role in how it all shakes out.

Here are a few notes on Cespedes from the GM Meetings:

  • There’s no question that the Mets want to retain Cespedes, as MLB.com’s Barry Bloom reports. Alderson said today that the team would prefer to sign him, “all things considered,” though the question remains just how much cash (and how many years) the organization will put on the table. New York has already reached out to Cespedes’s camp to begin talks, as he weighs a qualifying offer that he’s certain to reject. “Oh yeah, we’ve reached out to him,” Alderson said. “We expect to have more conversations with them in the next few days. His agent will be out here somewhere. I’m sure you’ll talk to him. It all remains to be seen what direction it takes.”
  • Somewhat intriguingly, there’s another New York team that has expressed interest, though it’s far from clear how serious a pursuit should be expected. The Yankees have spoken with Cespedes’s representatives at CAA, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag, though GM Brian Cashman said that the expectation is the team will utilize internal options in the outfield. And the Yanks have also reached out to a variety of other potential free agent targets, including departing Blue Jays power hitter Jose Bautista. All told, it doesn’t seem as if there’s any particular reason to think the Bronx Bombers are readying to move on either veteran slugger, though Cashman did note that “things could change if we move money.”
  • Nationals GM Mike Rizzo also fielded questions on Cespedes, saying that the outfielder “improves any team he plays for,” as Joel Sherman of the New York Post was among those to report. Rizzo noted that the club feels comfortable with Bryce Harper in center and Trea Turner at short, which could open the door to another pursuit of Cespedes — who spurned the Nats last winter to take a deal with the Mets that allowed him to return to the market this winter. As Sherman notes, the Nationals have strategic reasons to drive up the bidding on Cespedes, even if they aren’t truly keen on spending big to add him, but it also seems clear that the organization has a realistic interest in pursuing him at the right price.
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Edwin Encarnacion Not Expected To Strike Early Deal With Blue Jays

By Jeff Todd | November 8, 2016 at 7:21pm CDT

An early push by the Blue Jays to re-sign veteran slugger Edwin Encarnacion does not appear likely to come to fruition, according to reports from Jon Heyman of Fan Rag and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca. With Encarnacion drawing strong interest elsewhere, it appears he’ll allow his market to develop before reaching a decision.

That’s not a terribly surprising outcome, all things considered. Toronto never has seemed quite willing to commit to a price tag that would prevent the soon-to-be 34-year-old first baseman and designated hitter from gauging interest from other organizations. That seemed to be the case last spring, Heyman notes, and may still hold true now. While Toronto is amenable to a three-year guarantee or “perhaps even the right four-year deal,” he says, it appears as if one or more alternative organizations may be willing to do more.

It’s too soon to rule out a return to the Jays,, as general manager Ross Atkins spoke glowingly of Encarnacion and made clear the team still hopes to retain him. But as Davidi writes, the GM also hinted that the organization may have little choice but to look elsewhere. When asked about the possibility of an early determination with regard to Encarnacion, he responded:

“Any team would prefer that. In any negotiation, in any deal, the quicker you have clarity, the sooner you consider your alternatives one way or the other. … [T]he challenge becomes knowing whether those pieces are going to be here or not. Offers often times come on and off tables.”

Though Atkins declined to address Encarnacion’s situation directly, his comments certainly suggest that the sides are set to explore alternatives. That is the case for Encarnacion and his reps, per Davidi, who says they “began to engage with other clubs” today. For the team, Atkins noted that there are “a lot of potential alternatives” under discussion at the moment, and certainly there are a wide variety of possibilities on a market that’s full of lumbering sluggers. We heard earlier today that the Jays were one of several teams to put out feelers to Kendrys Morales, and other options could also be explored.

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Toronto Blue Jays Edwin Encarnacion

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Free Agent Rumors: Hill, Dodgers, Napoli, Logan, Braves, Hwang

By Steve Adams | November 8, 2016 at 3:31pm CDT

There’s a flurry of offseason rumors flying about Twitter in the early stages of free agency and with the General Managers Meetings taking place in Arizona at the moment. Much of the talk is preliminary at this juncture, and many of the names connected to teams in the early-going won’t ultimately be targets in the long run. That said, the GM Meetings can certainly provide a forum to lay the groundwork for future free-agent deals and trades, and we even see the occasional big-name signing there (as was the case with Victor Martinez re-signing with the Tigers prior to the 2015 season). Here’s a rundown of all the latest free-agent chatter…

  • Yankees GM Brian Cashman told reporters that he plans to reach out to the representatives for free agent left-hander Rich Hill (Twitter link via NJ.com’s Brendan Kuty). Cashman stressed that he’s planning to meet with the reps for a large number of free agents, but the Yankees have been an oft-speculated landing spot for Hill, who seems likely to cash in on a significant free agent deal this winter less than 18 months removed from a stint pitching for the Long Island Ducks of the independent Atlantic League. MLBTR ranked Hill 14th among free agents and pegged him for a three-year, $50MM deal.
  • The Dodgers will also be in the mix for Hill, tweets Andy McCullough of the L.A. Times, and they’re having dialogue with his representatives as well as those for free agents Kenley Jansen and Justin Turner. The Dodgers already made qualifying offers to both Jansen and Turner, though it’s a no-brainer for each to reject in search of a more lucrative deal. It’d be somewhat of a surprise if the Dodgers let all three of their big-name free agents sign elsewhere this winter, although re-signing all three doesn’t seem to be an especially likely outcome, either.
  • Mike Napoli is drawing early interest from the Mariners, tweets Jon Morosi of the MLB Network. As Morosi points out, Napoli has a good history with Seattle manager Scott Servais dating back to his Rangers days. Napoli would be a logical fit for the M’s, who project to have the unproven Dan Vogelbach as their starting first baseman next year. However, the possibility of an eventual timeshare situation developing between the two may not be palatable from Napoli’s vantage point, I wouldn’t think. And it would seem strange for the Mariners to part with a controllable lefty like Mike Montgomery to acquire Vogelbach only to block him a few months later by giving Napoli the everyday first base gig.
  • Morosi also tweets that left-hander Boone Logan is generating some early interest, and FanRag’s Jon Heyman hears the same. Morosi notes that the Blue Jays and Giants both had interest in Logan at the non-waiver trade deadline this summer, though the Rockies elected not to trade him. Toronto, in particular, could probably use some left-handed relief help, as it was an area of weakness for them for much of the 2016 and they now stand to lose Brett Cecil to the open market. The 32-year-old Logan is probably best deployed as a lefty specialist, which may limit his market a bit, but he excels in that area. Logan held lefties to a putrid .142/.222/.255 slash in 2016 and a .225/.349/.254 slash in 2015.
  • MLB.com’s Mark Bowman writes that if the Braves are to sign a new catcher this winter, the likeliest targets are Jason Castro and Nick Hundley. Bowman tabs Wilson Ramos as a long shot and says he’d only land in Atlanta if his asking price declined significantly. Also per Bowman, Atlanta has never seemed all that interested in pursuing former Georgia Tech star Matt Wieters. Castro would give the Braves another strong defender and a left-handed bat to complement the right-handed bat of Tyler Flowers. Hundley, meanwhile, would be more of an offensive-minded backstop for the Braves.
  • Korean third-baseman Jae-gyun Hwang will host a showcase for interested teams in Florida on Nov. 21, tweets Morosi. The 29-year-old didn’t draw a bid when posted last offseason but delivered another very strong season in the KBO this year. Hwang hit a career-best 27 homers and posted a .335/.394/.570 line with dramatically improved K/BB numbers in 2016 and could be a relatively low-cost option at the hot corner this winter.
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Atlanta Braves Los Angeles Dodgers New York Yankees San Francisco Giants Seattle Mariners Toronto Blue Jays Boone Logan Jae-gyun Hwang Jason Castro Justin Turner Kenley Jansen Matt Wieters Mike Napoli Nick Hundley Rich Hill Wilson Ramos

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Royals, Yankees, Jays, Red Sox Interested In Kendrys Morales

By Jeff Todd | November 8, 2016 at 1:45pm CDT

1:45pm: Royals general manager Dayton Moore tells MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan that he has “definite interest” in re-signing Morales this winter as well (Twitter link). The Royals, of course, are facing some potential payroll constraints, so it’s not clear that they’d be able to fit Morales into the budget.

9:41am: The Yankees have reached out to the representatives of free agent DH Kendrys Morales, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The 33-year-old would be seen as an option for New York in the event that the club deals catcher and DH candidate Brian McCann this winter.

There’s more interest from the AL East, too, according to the report. Both the Blue Jays and Red Sox have also put out early feelers on Morales, who was not issued a qualifying offer by the Royals and can therefore be signed without sacrificing a draft pick. Those organizations have also been tied to Edwin Encarnacion, who’ll certainly require a much larger contract, so Morales looks to represent something of an alternative.

The lack of a qualifying offer certainly enhances the appeal of Morales, who is more or less a pure DH but does deliver some flexibility as a switch-hitter. Despite a lull early in 2016, he ended his two years in Kansas City with a robust .277/.344/.476 batting line and 52 home runs over 1,257 plate appearances.

While there are plenty of alternative sluggers available in free agency — some of a more premium variety, others on par, and still others with less appeal than Morales — it seems that he is a popular early target. That’s certainly a good sign for the veteran, who is expected to command a multi-year contract once again. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicts that Morales will land at $26MM over a two-year commitment. That would represent a solid raise over his most recent contract, which was signed on the heels of a much-less-encouraging platform.

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Boston Red Sox Kansas City Royals New York Yankees Toronto Blue Jays Brian McCann Kendrys Morales

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Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

By Mark Polishuk | November 8, 2016 at 12:24pm CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

With some major core players eligible for free agency, the Blue Jays may need some significant retooling to make another postseason trip.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Troy Tulowitzki, SS: $74MM through 2020 ($15MM club option for 2021, $4MM buyout)
  • Russell Martin, C: $60MM through 2019
  • J.A. Happ, SP: $26MM through 2018
  • Josh Donaldson, 3B: $17MM through 2017
  • Melvin Upton Jr. OF: $16.45MM through 2017 ($12.05MM covered by the Padres as per the terms of the July 2016 trade)
  • Marco Estrada, SP: $14MM through 2017
  • Francisco Liriano, SP: $13MM through 2017
  • Justin Smoak, 1B: $8.25MM through 2018 ($6MM club option for 2019, $250K buyout)

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

  • Josh Thole (5.165) – $900K
  • Darwin Barney (5.085) – $1.6MM
  • Aaron Loup (4.040) – $1.2MM
  • Ezequiel Carrera (3.039) – $1.2MM
  • Marcus Stroman (2.148) – $3.5MM
  • Non-tender candidates: Thole

Contract Options

  • Jason Grilli, RP: $3MM club option (exercised)

Free Agents

  • Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Michael Saunders, Brett Cecil, R.A. Dickey, Joaquin Benoit, Scott Feldman, Dioner Navarro, Gavin Floyd

Toronto Blue Jays Depth Chart; Blue Jays Payroll Overview

Since the start of the 2010 season, Jose Bautista has hit more home runs (249) than any player in baseball, while Edwin Encarnacion (231) ranks third on that same list.  Having both of these prolific bats together on (what turned out to be) very team-friendly contracts has been one of the key factors behind the Blue Jays’ recent success, but this winter, it seems very likely that the Bautista/Encarnacion era will come to an end.

Naturally, the Jays’ decisions on the two cornerstone players will shape the rest of their offseason decision-making.  Re-signing both seems very improbable, as the Jays would be committing millions to two players in their mid-to-late-30s when the team already has a pretty expensive and aging roster.  Re-signing one of the two is a possibility, and initial signs are that Encarnacion may be the prime target. In his case, he said he was “really disappointed” by his Spring Training extension talks with the club, as the Jays reportedly only offered him two guaranteed years with multiple vesting options for further seasons.  That offer seemed strangely low at the time and it looks downright meager compared to what Encarnacion will earn in the wake of a 42-homer, .263/.357/.529 season.  Though Encarnacion will be 34 on Opening Day, he has put himself in line to easily land a four-year guarantee with a $20MM+ average annual value, and perhaps one enterprising team could even go as high as five years.

Bautista, on the other hand, will require a much lower price tag but also carries far more question marks.  Bautista hit .234/.366/.452 with 22 homers over 517 PA; good numbers for most players, but a big step backwards from his usual offensive output.  While he was still productive at the plate, his baserunning (as per Fangraphs’ BsR metric) and defense (-9.3 UZR/150, -8 Defensive Runs Saved) nosedived, leaving him with an overall contribution of just 1.4 fWAR.  Injuries likely played a part, as Bautista had two lengthy DL stints due to a sprained knee and turf toe.  The 36-yeard-old has now suffered through three injury-shortened seasons in the last five years, and between his health history, age and declining defense, his future may lie as a DH/first baseman rather than as a regular right fielder.

GM Ross Atkins told reporters that the Jays had plans to speak to both players in the exclusive five-day prior to free agency (which expired about 13 hours ago), and both Encarnacion and Bautista were issued qualifying offers.  At the very least, the Blue Jays will receive first-round compensatory draft picks should Encarnacion and Bautista sign elsewhere, assuming they turn the QOs down.  (Encarnacion certainly will, and Bautista reportedly will do so as well, though there’s at least a minor chance he could opt for the one-year, $17.2MM offer and shoot for a healthier platform season in 2017.)

Left fielder Michael Saunders did not receive a qualifying offer, as Toronto’s other big position player free agent had a very rough second half of the season that overshadowed his All-Star caliber first half.  Retaining Saunders would give the Jays a much-needed left-handed bat to help balance out a very right-handed lineup.  If Encarnacion and Bautista both departed, Saunders could see more time at DH, which would improve the Jays’ outfield defense and also perhaps help Saunders stay fresh and productive throughout the entire year.

If all three hitters left in free agency, the Blue Jays would lose some serious pop but would also gain the opportunity to remake a somewhat one-dimensional lineup.  While Toronto finished ninth among all teams in runs scored in 2016, the club was rather an all-or-nothing offense, prone to extended cold streaks (such as down the stretch in September) when not hitting home runs.  The Jays were also a bottom-10 team in both contact rate and stolen bases, while finishing eighth in strikeouts and hitting into a league-high 153 double plays.

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To address these problems, the Jays are planning to become “more athletic, flexible and balanced in the batting order,” in the words of Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi.  The club will cast a wide net in exploring options in the outfield and at first base, as the Jays are reportedly planning to check in on such free agents as Josh Reddick (a left-handed bat), Ian Desmond (a right-handed bat who play multiple positions) and switch-hitter Dexter Fowler, with Davidi suggesting Mike Napoli and Brandon Moss as other potential targets.  Carlos Beltran drew attention from the Blue Jays at the deadline, so it seems likely that the team would again explore acquiring the veteran switch-hitter now that he’s on the open market. There are a variety of other bat-first candidates available, with Kendrys Morales also representing a DH possibility on the open market.

Signing Desmond or Fowler would cost the Jays a draft pick via the qualifying offer, so if the team is already considering an expensive multi-year commitment, could they shop at the very top of the market and pursue Yoenis Cespedes?  He would bring outstanding left field defense and a lot of power to Toronto, though as a right-handed bat, Cespedes isn’t a completely ideal fit in the lineup.  One might think the Jays would want more of a perfect match if they were going to sign a player to what would have to be the most expensive contract in franchise history, so I’d consider the Blue Jays to be darkhorses at best in the Cespedes sweepstakes this winter.

Speaking of big contracts, the Jays have at least some level of interest in Joey Votto, who has long been linked to his hometown team in trade rumors thanks to the Reds’ rebuilding process.  Votto, who has said he hopes to remain a Red despite the team’s rebuild, has a full no-trade clause and is owed a whopping $179MM through 2023, so a lot would have to happen for the Reds and Blue Jays to work out a blockbuster deal.  Cincinnati might not be the first place Toronto looks if it wants to address first base or the corner outfield via the trade market; clubs like the Mets, Marlins, Cubs, Athletics, Rockies or Cardinals could all be better options.

The Blue Jays could also look internally to address these positions, though this would seem to be the clear “plan B” due to a lack of reliable bench depth.  Melvin Upton Jr. is a potential fit for left or right field on paper, though he struggled so badly after joining the Jays at the deadline that the team may not be satisfied with the veteran in an everyday role.  Upton could share time with backup Ezequiel Carrera or prospect Dalton Pompey, if the Jays believe that Pompey has developed enough to be a passable hitter at the big league level.

Switch-hitting first baseman Justin Smoak was surprisingly signed to an extension at midseason, and yet contract aside, it would be hard to see Smoak stepping into any more of a regular role in a wake of a sub-replacement level 2016 season.  Chris Colabello seems to be on the outs with the organization in the wake of his 80-game PED suspension, so it wouldn’t be surprising if the Blue Jays cut ties with him entirely this winter.  Prospect Rowdy Tellez is coming off a big Double-A season and could get himself in the picture with a big Spring Training, though more likely scenario is that Tellez is a late-season callup rather than a candidate for regular duty.

Looking further at the bench, Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney are on hand as utility infielders, providing backup should Troy Tulowitzki or Devon Travis suffer another injury.  A new backup catcher will be required since Josh Thole had little value to the Jays aside from being R.A. Dickey’s personal catcher, and Dickey is almost certainly departing in free agency.  Dioner Navarro could be re-signed given his popularity within the clubhouse and familiarity with the rotation, though Navarro is coming off a very poor 2016 season.

Pitching-wise, the Jays are already set with their starting five of J.A. Happ, Aaron Sanchez, Marco Estrada, Francisco Liriano and Marcus Stroman.  Toronto’s rotation was seen as the team’s weak link headed into last season and yet it ended up being a surprisingly big strength, thanks to impressive seasons from Happ, Estrada and breakout star Sanchez.  As mentioned, it doesn’t look like there’s any room for Dickey to return, and the veteran knuckleballer will either pitch elsewhere in 2017 or perhaps even retire.

The Blue Jays got quite a bit of durability from their rotation last year, and since two straight years of good pitching health is a rare gift for any team, some starting depth will be required in the minors or in the form of a bullpen swingman.  Rule 5 draft pick Joe Biagini blossomed into a major bullpen contributor, and there has been speculation that the Jays could stretch him out for future use as a starter.  Biagini could potentially fill that swingman role, with an eye towards becoming a full-time starter in 2018 if Liriano and/or Estrada leave in free agency.

On the other hand, Biagini may be needed more in the bullpen for the time being.  Toronto is set with Roberto Osuna closing and Jason Grilli in a setup role after his strong showing following a mid-season trade, though the rest of the ’pen is in flux, and relief upgrades will be a priority this winter.  The Blue Jays will explore re-signing longtime bullpen stalwart Brett Cecil and summer pickup Joaquin Benoit, with Cecil carrying the much bigger price tag of the two.  Southpaw bullpen help is a particular need for the Jays even if Cecil returns, so expect Toronto to scour the market for left-handed relievers in free agency (Boone Logan, Jerry Blevins, J.P. Howell, etc.) or in trades.

Between their players under contract, the four arbitration-eligible players likely to be tendered contracts and Grilli’s option, the Blue Jays have roughly $118MM committed to 13 players for 2017.  Counting the minimum salaries slated for Travis, Sanchez, Osuna, Biagini and Kevin Pillar as pre-arb players, that takes the total to approximately $120.6MM for 18 players.

Toronto’s Opening Day payroll has been in the neighborhood of $136-$137MM in two of the last three years, so there isn’t a ton of room for Atkins and president/CEO Mark Shapiro to maneuver for another big contract.  The front office would have to shed salary elsewhere, get a payroll increase approved by the team’s corporate ownership at Rogers Communications or sign players to backloaded deals that don’t kick in with the big money until after 2017 — or perhaps even 2018 (when Happ is off the books and Russell Martin’s deal only has one year remaining).

Of course, the Jays could also add more long-term commitments this winter in the form of extensions.  Josh Donaldson already agreed to a two-year extension last February that covered two of his remaining arbitration years, and surely the Jays would have interest in talking to their superstar third baseman about a longer-term deal to keep him beyond the 2018 season.  Toronto could explore keeping Estrada or Liriano beyond next year, and there could even be some talks with Sanchez, Osuna or the other pre-arb building blocks about extensions that would guarantee them their first big paydays while gaining the Jays some cost-certainty and perhaps some future control.

There are a lot of moving pieces to Toronto’s offseason, as the team could move quickly to replace Encarnacion and Bautista if it feels there isn’t a chance of re-signing either.  Conversely, the Blue Jays could wait to see how the two sluggers’ markets develop on the off-chance that either becomes available at a lower price (a la Cespedes and the Mets last winter), though then the Jays risk missing out on other players.

With most of their best prospects still at least a year away, Shapiro and Atkins will have to be creative in looking externally to fill what could be several holes on the 25-man roster.  Still, with a full and talented rotation, one of the game’s best players in Donaldson and several other solid young and veteran building blocks, the Jays project to be contenders again in 2017 if they can find those critical missing pieces.

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2016-17 Offseason Outlook MLBTR Originals Toronto Blue Jays

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