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Offseason In Review: Toronto Blue Jays

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The Blue Jays’ offseason was defined by who they didn’t sign rather than who they did sign, as they came up short in their pursuit of Shohei Ohtani.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $41MM
Total spending: $70.5MM

Option Decisions

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

December 8, 2023 will be remembered as one of the most unusual days in Blue Jays history, as reports from J.P. Hoornstra of Dodger Nation and MLB Network’s Jon Morosi indicated that Ohtani had either signed with the Jays, or was on a flight to Toronto to make the deal official.  It led to a few fevered hours of speculation around the baseball world before a lack of confirmation on these early reports eventually acted as a reality check, with Morosi retracting his earlier message on X.  The next day, Ohtani officially announced on his own Instagram page that he had signed with the Dodgers, thus ending the Blue Jays’ chances once and for all.

Subsequent reports indicated that the Jays made a comparable offer to the 10 years and (heavily-deferred) $700MM Ohtani received from Los Angeles.  Even if the Dodgers might’ve been Ohtani’s first choice if all else was equal, it appears as though the Blue Jays and possibly the Giants were viewed as legitimately viable alternative destinations if contract talks with L.A. didn’t go smoothly.

It’s possible that Toronto fans might feel a little better about not landing Ohtani now than they did a week ago, before news broke of the controversial and possibly explosive allegations involving Ohtani’s ex-interpreter Ippei Mizuhara, an illegal gambling operation, and funds allegedly taken from Ohtani’s personal bank accounts to cover Mizuhara’s debts.  However, losing Ohtani was soon followed up by Los Angeles signing another top Jays target in Yoshinobu Yamamoto, even if Toronto wasn’t reportedly one of the true finalists for Yamamoto’s services — and certainly not to the level of the Dodgers’ massive 12-year, $325MM commitment to the Japanese ace.

The one-two punch of missing out on Ohtani and Yamamoto only increased the discord that has existed within the fanbase through much of the 2023 season, and reached a fever pitch when sloppy baserunning, a continued lack of hitting, and an infamous pitching change combined to quickly sweep Toronto out of its wild card series matchup with the Twins.  Jays GM Ross Atkins isn’t going to make an ill-advised splashy move just for the sake of positive headlines, yet just from a baseball perspective, questions have to asked about whether the Toronto roster is better now than it was at the end of last season.

As has been the Blue Jays’ habit over the last few offseasons, the club was linked to a wide range of available players.  Beyond Ohtani and Yamamoto, multiple reports suggested the Jays had some degree of interest in the likes of free agents Cody Bellinger, Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, J.D. Martinez, Jeimer Candelario, Jorge Soler, Joc Pederson, Michael Brantley, Rhys Hoskins, Gio Urshela, Michael A. Taylor, Amed Rosario, Domingo German, and their own incumbent free agent in Matt Chapman.  On the trade front, the Blue Jays reportedly looked into deals involving such players as Juan Soto, Eugenio Suarez, Isaac Paredes, Dylan Carlson, Jonathan India, and Jake Cronenworth, with the first two of those names actually changing teams in other deals.

The slow-moving nature of the free agent market means that the Blue Jays probably didn’t really miss out on many opportunities while focusing primarily on Ohtani for the offseason’s first five weeks.  Hindsight being 20-20, it can be argued that the Jays should’ve or could’ve pushed more to acquire Soto than Ohtani, though there’s no guarantee that the Jays were willing to match or exceed the pitching-centric trade package the Yankees needed to pry Soto away from the Padres.  As much as the fans were begging for a big strike, cleaning out an already thin farm system to land Soto might not have been feasible for the Jays in the long run.

Kevin Kiermaier was a free agent for the second consecutive winter but again ended up signing a one-year deal with Toronto, returning for a $10.5MM salary and a raise on his previous $9MM deal.  Heading into the offseason, the conventional wisdom was that the Blue Jays might let Kiermaier walk, in order to install Daulton Varsho in center field and a bigger bat into Varsho’s old left field spot.  However, the Jays will instead run it back with the outfield of Varsho, Kiermaier, and George Springer, hoping for a repeat of the group’s excellent defense and overall good health, and a notable improvement at the plate from at least Varsho and Springer.  (And if Kiermaier can top his solid 2023 slash line of .265/.322/.419 in 408 plate appearances, all the better.)

As for re-signing Chapman, Toronto monitored his market and made a late two-year offer before the third baseman signed with the Giants.  Chapman’s rather unusually long stint in free agency probably created this eleventh-hour possibility of a reunion, as it otherwise seemed like the Blue Jays somewhat moved on from Chapman when they signed Isiah Kiner-Falefa to a two-year, $15MM contract.

The price tag raised eyebrows, as Kiner-Falefa’s bat has been well below average (81 wRC+) over his six MLB seasons and 2415 career PA.  A Gold Glove winner as the Rangers’ third baseman in 2020, IKF’s defense has generally graded as average to very good at multiple positions, even if he naturally won’t match Chapman’s elite glovework.

Having Kiner-Falefa as a semi-everyday player is probably not an ideal move for an already inconsistent lineup, though the Blue Jays’ rather fluid second base/third base/backup infield collection of IKF, Cavan Biggio, Davis Schneider, and Ernie Clement could see all four players mixing and matching between the two positions.  Kiner-Falefa and Clement can also back up Bo Bichette at shortstop, and the out-of-options Clement performed well enough in Spring Training that the Jays felt comfortable enough to trade Santiago Espinal to the injury-riddled Reds last week.

Of course, Justin Turner also figures to get some time at the hot corner, even if Turner was signed to primarily fill Brandon Belt’s role as a part-time first baseman and DH.  Turner has been on the Jays’ radar for years as a free agent target, and the two sides finally came together on a one-year deal worth $13MM.  Even as he enters his age-39 season, Turner has remained a consistently productive hitter, including 23 homers and a .276/.345/.455 slash line over 626 PA for the Red Sox in 2023.

Turner is expected to play pretty close to every day at either third, first, or DH, while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will naturally also be a lineup staple as the first baseman or designated hitter.  When a right-hander is on the mound, spring non-roster invite Daniel Vogelbach figures to get some time in the DH spot, as his minor league contract has now been selected to the Opening Day roster.  Vogelbach doesn’t have much utility as a DH-only player who can’t hit left-handed pitching, though his lefty bat does bring some balance to a lineup and bench mix that continues to tilt to the right side.  Re-signing Kiermaier brought at least one left-handed hitter back into the fold, but Kiermaier, Vogelbach, Biggio, and Varsho (none of whom are exactly premium bats) represent the current allotment of lefty swingers on the projected roster.

Joey Votto’s possible inclusion could change this picture in terms of upside if not numbers, as if Votto’s minors deal is selected to the active roster, he would surely just replace Vogelbach.  It would be a storybook ending if Votto could revive his career for at least one more big season with his hometown team, but while the 17-year veteran has been very forthright about his confidence in himself, Votto is also realistic about the challenges he’ll face in getting back to anything close to his old form after two injury-plagued seasons.  Votto will need time to ramp up in the minors, and he’ll also first have to recover from an ankle injury suffered after he homered in his lone Spring Training plate appearance in a Blue Jays uniform.

Between Turner, Vogelbach, and rolling the dice on Votto, the Jays apparently felt ok in moving on from Belt, as there were no public indications that Toronto had interest in re-signing arguably its best hitter from the 2023 season.  Alejandro Kirk also figures to get some DH at-bats over the course of the season, though he’ll be strictly a catcher in the early going while Danny Jansen recovers from a minor wrist fracture.  Offseason waiver claim Brian Serven will now break camp as Kirk’s backup catcher while Jansen heals.

Turning to the pitching staff, the Blue Jays’ priciest signing of the winter wasn’t Ohtani or Yamamoto, but rather another name from Japan….via Cuba.  Yariel Rodriguez posted a 3.30 ERA over 464 1/3 innings and six seasons in Cuba’s Serie Nacional before then delivering a 3.03 ERA in 175 1/3 frames for Nippon Professional Baseball’s Chunichi Dragons from 2020-22.  Rodriguez sat out the 2023 season while trying to arrange his move to MLB, so the year’s layoff is another x-factor on top of the usual questions about how a player’s skills will translate from international baseball to the Show.

Multiple teams scouted and considered Rodriguez this winter, with the Blue Jays among the group who liked him as a starting pitcher rather than as a reliever.  With Bowden Francis winning the fifth starter’s job coming out of Spring Training, it appears as though Rodriguez will begin the season in Triple-A, acting as rotation depth and continuing to acclimate to his new league.  Even with a five-year contract and at least a $32MM investment in Rodriguez, the Blue Jays are willing to be patient in getting Rodriguez fully ready for the bigs before deploying him as a starter, reliever, or swingman.

While the Jays signed Rodriguez and kicked the tires on some other free agent arms, Toronto is largely standing pat with its same pitching staff from 2023.  This isn’t a bad move considering how the rotation and bullpen were both strengths last season, though there is some added risk since the odds are against another year of largely good pitcher health.  Already some cracks have shown since Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson will start the year on the 15-day injured list, and Kevin Gausman had a bout of shoulder fatigue earlier in camp but now seems on pace to be part of the Opening Day roster.

Alek Manoah remains the biggest uncertainty on the roster, as Manoah’s spring work consisted of one rough outing (four earned runs in 1 2/3 innings) before being sidelined with shoulder soreness.  In the wake of Manoah’s disastrous 2023 season, the Blue Jays simply don’t know what to expect from Manoah going forward, making it even more important that Francis, Rodriguez, Mitch White, and perhaps eventually top prospect Ricky Tiedemann can work as depth starter or fifth starter options.  This in turn puts more pressure on Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt, and Yusei Kikuchi to stay healthy and effective so any other leaks don’t spring in the rotation.

Adding clear-cut starters or even lower-level pitchers on inexpensive guaranteed contracts or minor league deals might’ve been tricky for the Blue Jays this winter, as such pitchers probably preferred to join teams with clearer potential rotation or bullpen openings.  In a nutshell, already having a core in place might’ve limited what Toronto was willing or able to do with both its pitching staff and perhaps the roster as a whole.

Breaking the bank for Ohtani or Yamamoto in a special circumstance was one thing, but the Jays were generally conservative in boosting the payroll.  After a $214.5MM payroll and a $246MM luxury tax number in 2023 (putting them over the tax line for the first time ever), the Blue Jays are estimated by RosterResource for a $226MM payroll and a $248.7MM luxury tax figure heading into Opening Day.  While they might not have spent much this winter, this does leave the team with some flexibility to add money at the trade deadline when they have a better sense of their immediate needs.  It isn’t known whether or not the second tax penalty tier of $257MM represents any kind of internal spending limit, but given how this team has been so aggressive in recent years, it would be surprising if the front office suddenly held back if a key upgrade was available.

If the Blue Jays were ultimately content to just tinker with their roster, however, it puts even more pressure on their core group to step up after a curiously lackluster 2023 season.  Atkins said in early January that “We feel like last year was just a blip in terms of run-scoring,” and yet while any of Springer, Varsho, Guerrero, or Kirk could rebound, counting on them all to bounce back is perhaps a little too optimistic since there was no obvious answer as to why the quartet were all so inconsistent last year.

Between this group, Kiner-Falefa’s lack of offense, and the uncertainty within the second base and backup infield mix, it isn’t a stretch to say that Bichette and Turner are the club’s only real reliable bats heading into the year.  Perhaps some coaching changes might do the trick, as bench coach Don Mattingly has a new title of “offensive coordinator” and Matt Hague has joined the staff as an assistant hitting coach.

Even with back-to-back playoff disappointments in the last two seasons, the Jays still think their core group is capable of bigger and better things.  Without a ton of overt upgrades coming this winter, however, the Blue Jays will face a challenge in just getting back to the playoffs, let alone making some postseason noise.

Blue Jays Option Yariel Rodriguez

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The Blue Jays have optioned right-hander Yariel Rodriguez to Triple-A Buffalo to open the season, as noted by Francys Romero. Romero adds that Rodriguez is expected to make two or three starts at the level to continue building up before the club will look to add him to the major league roster.

Rodriguez, 27, officially signed a five-year deal with Toronto back in February after reaching an agreement the month prior. The righty entered the offseason as one of the winter’s most unusual free agents. He began his career as a starting pitcher in Cuba but upon moving overseas to pitch in Japan, he converted to relief where he dominated to the tune of a 1.15 ERA with a 27.5% strikeout rate in 56 appearances during a breakout 2022 season, his third year with the Chunichi Dragons of Japan’s NPB. Prior to the start of the 2023 campaign, Rodriguez represented Cuba in the World Baseball Classic and made a return to starting. He pitched to solid results during the tournament but did not report to the Dragons after it came to a close, instead heading to the Dominican Republic to pursue a future in MLB.

The Dragons eventually granted Rodriguez his release last fall and he was declared a free agent by MLB shortly thereafter. Given his unusual path to the majors, evaluations of Rodriguez varied considerably even by the standards of an international free agent looking for his first stateside contract. The Blue Jays wound up being the team to take a chance on Rodriguez, surely enticed by his youth and dominant 2022 season. Entering camp, Rodriguez figure to have a chance to battle with right-hander Alek Manoah for the fifth spot in the club’s rotation behind Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Yusei Kikuchi and Chris Bassitt.

That, unfortunately, did not come to pass for Rodriguez, as back spasms delayed the start to his Spring Training. Manoah and top prospect Rickey Tiedemann were also delayed this spring by injuries, and so the fifth spot in the rotation will instead go to right-hander Bowden Francis while Manoah begins the season on the injured list and both Rodriguez and Tiedemann head to Triple-A to continue ramping up for the season. Rodriguez made just two appearances with the Jays this spring, striking out three while allowing two hits, a home run, and three walks in five innings of work. Once Rodriguez has finished shaking off the rust associated with his lengthy layoff last year, the Blue Jays figure to make a decision regarding whether he’ll make his big league debut as a member of the club’s starting rotation or as part of the relief corps.

Blue Jays To Select Daniel Vogelbach

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Blue Jays manager John Schneider told Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi and other reporters that designated hitter Daniel Vogelbach will be part of Toronto’s Opening Day roster.  Vogelbach will join Davis Schneider, Ernie Clement, and Brian Serven as the Jays’ bench mix to begin the season.

As noted earlier in regards to Serven, Vogelbach will also have to be added to the Jays’ 40-man roster prior to their first game on Thursday.  Vogelbach signed a minor league deal last month that will pay the slugger $2MM in guaranteed money if he makes Toronto’s active roster, though Davidi suggests that the Jays could possibly avoid that full payout if Vogelbach agrees to an advanced consent.  This would create a 45-day window wherein the Blue Jays could outright Vogelbach off their 40-man roster and owe him only a prorated portion of that $2MM salary.

This contractual loophole could reflect Vogelbach’s status as something of an understudy for Joey Votto, as it looked like Votto’s arrival in Toronto on a minor league deal would likely spell the end of Vogelbach’s stint in the Jays’ camp.  However, it already seemed like Votto was going to need some extra tune-up time in the minor leagues once Spring Training was over, and the former NL MVP has also been hampered by a minor ankle injury that has limited him to just one plate appearance (a home run) this spring.

This created an opening for Vogelbach to stick with the team, and he helped his case by hitting .226/.314/.581 with three homers over 35 plate appearances in Grapefruit League play.  Vogelbach doesn’t bring much roster flexibility as a DH-only player who is only playable against right-handed pitching, yet he has shown some solid pop against righties over his eight big league seasons.  His left-handed bat is also particularly helpful on a heavily right-handed Jays team, as Daulton Varsho, Kevin Kiermaier, and Cavan Biggio are the only lefty-swingers on the Opening Day roster.  (Nathan Lukes and Spencer Horwitz were optioned to Triple-A.)

Vogelbach hit .233/.339/.404 with 13 homers over 319 PA with the Mets in 2023, and all but 16 of those plate appearances came against right-handed pitchers.  Over his career, Vogelbach has a drastic set of splits — 74 home runs and a .240/.362/.452 slash line in 1555 PA against righties, and a dismal .129/248/.215 slash in 323 PA against southpaws.

Blue Jays To Select Brian Serven

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Blue Jays manager John Schneider told reporters today, including Kaitlyn McGrath of The Athletic, that catcher Brian Serven has made the team as the backup to Alejandro Kirk. Serven is not yet on the 40-man roster and will need to be added before the season begins next week.

Serven’s opportunity comes on the heels of catcher Danny Jansen suffering a wrist fracture earlier this month, leaving Kirk’s usual partner behind the plate ticketed for the injured list to open the season. Serven, who will celebrate his 29th birthday in May, has 73 games of big league experience under his belt since making his big league debut with the Rockies during the 2022 season. Since then, he’s hit just .195/.248/.314 in 228 plate appearances, all of which came during his time with Colorado.

While he posted quality framing numbers during his time in the majors, that wasn’t enough for the Rockies to keep him on the 40-man roster this offseason. He was designated for assignment by the club back in January and was promptly claimed off waivers by the Cubs, though he remained with Chicago for less than a week before he was once again DFA’d. This time, he was claimed by the Blue Jays, who were able to sneak him through waivers in late January, allowing them to keep him in the organization as non-roster depth headed into Spring Training.

That decision has now paid off, as Serven made the most of his opportunities this spring by clubbing three home runs while drawing walks at a 14.8% clip in his 27 trips to the plate across 12 spring games. While Spring Training numbers are of course rarely predictive of regular season performance, it’s possible Serven’s hot streak helped his case over fellow non-roster depth option Payton Henry, who appears set to begin the season at Triple-A Buffalo. While Serven has yet to hit much in the big leagues, his decent minor league numbers suggest that he could provide the level of offense associated with a major-league caliber backup behind the plate. He’s a career .240/.310/.418 hitter in the minors, including a .238/.305/.450 slash line in 134 career games at the Triple-A level.

Blue Jays Grant Eduardo Escobar His Release

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The Blue Jays granted veteran infielder Eduardo Escobar his release today, manager John Schneider tells Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. Escobar had been in camp on a minor league contract, but the team informed him this morning he wouldn’t make the club. He’s a free agent once again.

Escobar, 35, was facing long odds of cracking the Toronto roster. The club doesn’t have a clear everyday option at second base or third base but does have plenty of options for both positions. Cavan Biggio is perhaps the most likely player to get playing time at the keystone, but Davis Schneider will also be in the mix there. Isiah Kiner-Falefa could be the favorite for the hot corner after signing a two-year deal this winter, though Justin Turner can also play there on occasion when he’s not the designated hitter.

Ernie Clement seemed to win the backup infield job this spring, which pushed the Jays to flip Santiago Espinal to the Reds. They could have optioned Espinal to keep him as depth but they also have Orelvis Martinez, Addison Barger and Leo Jimenez on the roster. Joey Votto and Daniel Vogelbach are also in camp as non-roster options for bench bat role.

Escobar would have been trying to force his way past that group but he hit just .122/.143/.268 this spring. Since he hit .226/.269/.344 for the Mets and Angels last year, he wasn’t carrying a lot of momentum towards a roster spot and will now return to free agency.

He has been very inconsistent in his career but can market himself to clubs based on the fact that was in good form as recently as the 2021 and 2022 seasons. He hit 28 home runs in the first of those campaigns and 20 in the second. His .247/.305/.452 slash line over that time translates to a wRC+ of 106. He’s not a strong defender but his ability to the play the three non-shortstop positions and his switch-hitting ability give him plenty of flexibility.

Bowden Francis Makes Blue Jays’ Season-Opening Rotation

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Blue Jays manager John Schneider told the team’s beat this afternoon that right-hander Bowden Francis will be in the season-opening rotation (relayed by Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet). He’s tentatively scheduled to take the ball in the fourth game of the year at Tampa Bay.

That will be Francis’ first start at the major league level. Initially a seventh-round pick by the Brewers in 2017, Francis landed with the Jays in the 2021 deal that sent Rowdy Tellez to Milwaukee. He made it to the majors for one relief outing the following season but was sent outright from the 40-man roster not long after. Francis finished 2022 with a 6.59 ERA in Triple-A.

Needless to say, it didn’t seem at that time that he’d be only a season away from breaking camp in the Toronto rotation. Francis broke through with a very strong performance last year. After an early-season stint on the minor league injured list, he posted impressive numbers over 27 innings with Triple-A Buffalo. Francis turned in a 2.67 ERA while punching out more than 37% of batters faced at the top minor league level. That earned him another shot on the 40-man roster and his first extended stretch in the majors as a multi-inning reliever.

The 27-year-old Francis continued to impress against big league hitters. He turned in a sparkling 1.73 ERA in 36 1/3 innings spanning 20 appearances. While he didn’t maintain his eye-popping whiff rates from Triple-A, Francis fanned an above-average 25.7% of MLB opponents against a tidy 5.9% walk rate.

He has carried that strong production into Spring Training. Francis has tossed 18 2/3 innings over five appearances (four starts), allowing eight runs with 15 strikeouts and four free passes. That was enough to solidify himself as the next man up in the event that any of Toronto’s top five starters spent time on the injured list. Alek Manoah will begin the season on the shelf after battling shoulder soreness. It’s not expected to be a long-term issue but has kept him out of Spring Training action since his exhibition debut on February 27.

Toronto will give the ball to José Berríos on Opening Day. He’ll likely be followed by Chris Bassitt, Yusei Kikuchi and Francis. Ace Kevin Gausman is a bit behind because he dealt with what seemed to be minor shoulder fatigue earlier this month. He has expressed confidence he’ll avoid the injured list, although the Jays could keep him at the back of the first trip through the rotation to buy him a few extra days to continue building up.

Once Manoah is healthy, Francis might find himself bumped back to relief. He still has an option remaining, so the Jays could send him back to Buffalo if they want to keep him stretched out as a starter. He’ll at least get a few turns through the rotation in April to try to stake his claim to a permanent starting spot, his first chance to do so at the major league level.

Reds Acquire Santiago Espinal

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The Reds acquired infielder Santiago Espinal from the Blue Jays for minor league righty Chris McElvain, both teams announced. Cincinnati has a full 40-man roster but did not immediately reveal the corresponding move.

Acquiring an infielder a week before Opening Day probably wasn’t what the Reds anticipated entering camp. For most of the offseason, it seemed likelier that Cincinnati’s infield depth would lead them to trade someone away. That was particularly true after they added corner infielder Jeimer Candelario on a three-year free agent pact.

Things have changed rather quickly. Top prospect Noelvi Marte was suspended for 80 games after a positive test for the performance-enhancing substance Boldenone. That cleared everyday third base reps for Candelario, who had previously been ticketed for action between both corner spots and designated hitter. Perhaps even more alarming than the Marte suspension was today’s announcement that expected second baseman Matt McLain received an MRI on his injured left shoulder.

The team hasn’t provided a timeline on McLain, but manager David Bell told reporters this evening that he wouldn’t be ready for the start of the season. Bell had rather ominously left open the possibility that McLain could require surgery this morning, although the team hasn’t announced anything on that front. The UCLA product is headed for a second opinion before there’ll be an official timetable.

That the Reds went outside the organization for another infielder wouldn’t seem to point towards them expecting McLain’s return in short order. While they await official word on his injury, they add a quality defender who can serve as a depth piece at any of second base, third base or shortstop.

Espinal, 29, rode a surprisingly strong first half to an All-Star selection in 2022. His overall track record suggests he’s more of a high-end utility player than a regular on a contender, though. Espinal has plus contact skills with below-average power. His career .273/.331/.367 batting line is right around league average, as measured by wRC+, but he’s coming off a down year.

The righty-hitting Espinal turned in a .248/.310/.335 slash with two homers over 254 plate appearances last season. He lost a couple weeks to right hamstring inflammation but otherwise spent the year as a versatile infielder off the bench. Espinal saw most of his action at second and third base. He has graded as an above-average to plus defender at both spots in the eyes of public defensive metrics. He’s capable of playing shortstop but wasn’t asked to do so often in Toronto, where Bo Bichette has been an everyday lineup fixture for three years.

Espinal still has a pair of minor league options, so the Reds can move him to Triple-A Louisville, but they presumably would not have parted with a pitching prospect if they didn’t anticipate him being on the major league roster. He’ll back up Jonathan India, Elly De La Cruz and Candelario while Marte and McLain are out. His acquisition doesn’t bode well for the chances of non-roster invitee Erik González breaking camp. The Reds also had Josh Harrison and Tony Kemp on minor league deals this spring. Both players opted out and returned to free agency after being informed they wouldn’t make the team.

In January, the Jays and Espinal agreed on a $2.725MM salary to avoid an arbitration hearing. That’s a fully guaranteed deal which Cincinnati agreed to absorb. RosterResource calculated their payroll around $102MM before the trade; they’re up to roughly $105MM after the deal. Espinal has a little under four years of major league service. Cincinnati can control him via arbitration for another three seasons.

Toronto offloads a few million dollars from a payroll that had been projected around $236MM. Their luxury tax number sat around $249MM. That’ll also fall by $2.725MM. As second-time tax payors, they owe a 30% fee on spending between $237MM and $257MM. Shedding Espinal’s salary also saves them around $818K in tax commitments.

Moving Espinal clears a path for the out-of-options Ernie Clement to secure a spot on the Opening Day roster. As a contact-oriented righty hitter with infield versatility, he offers a similar profile to Espinal. The Jays feared that Clement would be claimed off waivers if they tried to send him to Triple-A, particularly on the heels of a huge showing this spring.

They’ll add McElvain as a flier to the lower levels of the system. An eighth-round pick out of Vanderbilt in 2022, he worked as a starter between two A-ball levels last season. McElvain pitched to a 3.75 ERA through 96 innings, albeit with a slightly below-average 21.1% strikeout rate and a walk percentage just south of 10%. He was not among Cincinnati’s top 30 prospects at Baseball America and didn’t receive a mention on Keith Law’s analysis of the system for The Athletic.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

31 Veterans With Opt-Out Opportunities Looming This Week

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One of the provisions in that 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement is uniform opt-out opportunities for Article XX(B) free agents on minor league deals. An Article XX(B) free agent is one with at least six years of service time who finished the previous season on a major league roster or injured list. Any such player who signs a minor league deal more than ten days prior to Opening Day can opt out of that deal at three points if they haven’t been added to the 40-man roster: five days before Opening Day, May 1 and June 1.

The first uniform opt-out date on this year’s calendar falls Friday at 1pm CT. Any player can trigger his out clause at that point, and the team will subsequently be given a 48-hour window to either add him to the roster or release him. With many clubs around the league dealing with spring injuries, some of these players should be able to find opportunities elsewhere if they can’t find it with their current organization. Their current clubs can prevent them from opting out by giving them a roster spot, but that may involve cutting someone else.

Angels: OF Jake Marisnick, LHP Drew Pomeranz

Marisnick, 33 this month, is a right-handed-hitting fourth outfielder with a plus glove and questionable bat. He can hold his own against right-handed pitching (career .237/.293/.417, 93 wRC+) but is typically overmatched by righties (.223/.274/.365, 74 wRC+). He’s having a huge spring, but the Angels already have Taylor Ward, Mike Trout, Mickey Moniak, Aaron Hicks and Jo Adell on the 40-man roster.

The 35-year-old Pomeranz was a good starter from 2016-17 and a dominant reliever from 2019-21, but he didn’t pitch in 2022-23 due to arm injuries. He’s pitched 6 2/3 innings with the Angels this spring with middling results.

Blue Jays: 3B/2B Eduardo Escobar, 1B Joey Votto

A poor season between the Mets and Angels last year set the stage for the 35-year-old Escobar to take a minor league deal. He’s long been a productive MLB hitter and even topped 30 homers back in 2019, but Escobar’s now in his mid-30s and struggling through an ugly spring while trying to win a spot in a crowded infield mix also featuring Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Santiago Espinal, Cavan Biggio, Ernie Clement and Davis Schneider.

Votto, 40, has been connected the Blue Jays seemingly forever due to his Canadian roots. He finally suited up for the Jays after agreeing to a minor league deal and homered in his first at-bat of camp. He’s had a lackluster showing at the plate in each of the past two MLB seasons, however.

Cubs: 1B/OF Garrett Cooper, RHP Carl Edwards Jr., OF David Peralta

An underrated hitter for years in Miami, Cooper slashed .274/.350/.444 in nearly 1300 plate appearances from 2019-22 before a poorly timed down showing in 2023’s walk year. He’s hitting quite well in spring training, and the Cubs don’t have a proven option at first base — though they’re understandably high on 26-year-old trade acquisition Michael Busch.

Edwards had a nice 2022 season with the Nats and posted a solid ERA in 2023 but did so with dismal K-BB numbers. He’s competing for a spot in an uncharacteristically crowded Cubs bullpen and could be squeezed out. The 32-year-old pitched for the Cubs from 2015-19, so Chicago brass knows him well. From 2022-23 in D.C., he posted a 3.07 ERA but a middling 20% strikeout rate against a 10.5% walk rate.

Peralta, 36, has a trio of hits and a walk in ten plate appearances this spring. He was an above-average hitter with the D-backs every season from 2017-20 but has been less consistent of late. He’s a left-handed hitter who’s long had glaring platoon splits and is limited to the outfield corners.

Diamondbacks: SS Elvis Andrus

Andrus is 35 but can still pick it at shortstop or second base. His once above-average speed has faded to the 30th percentile of MLB players, per Statcast, but his range at short remains excellent. Andrus hit .251/.304/.358 (81 wRC+) for the White Sox in 2023 and only has one year of above-average offense (2022) in the past six seasons.

Guardians: RHP Carlos Carrasco

Old friend Cookie Carrasco is fighting for the fifth spot in the Guardians’ rotation, and news of Gavin Williams’ season-opening stint on the injured list could further open the door for the 36-year-old (37 on Thursday) to make the team. Carrasco was torched for a 6.80 ERA with the 2023 Mets. He allowed 1.80 homers per nine frames through 90 innings, with alarming batted-ball metrics (91.5 mph average exit velocity, 48.2% hard-hit rate, 10.7% barrel rate). He was a solid mid-rotation arm as recently as 2022, when he tossed 152 innings of 3.97 ERA ball with sharp strikeout and walk rates.

Marlins: C Curt Casali

The veteran Casali has batted .201/.311/.315 over the past three big league seasons — a 78 wRC+ in 503 plate appearances. The 35-year-old is off to a rough start in camp and is a long shot to unseat defensive-minded Nick Fortes or Christian Bethancourt, both of whom are already on the 40-man roster.

Mets: 1B/DH Ji Man Choi

From 2017-22, Choi hit .254/.363/.465 (130 wRC+) against right-handed pitching. He walked at a 14.4% clip when holding the platoon advantage and fanned at a higher-than-average but still-manageable 24.1% rate. Lefties have always had Choi’s number, however, and his overall production cratered in 2023 while he dealt with Achilles and ribcage injuries. He’s fighting for a bench spot in New York alongside DJ Stewart and others.

Nationals: RHP Matt Barnes, OF Eddie Rosario, OF Jesse Winker

Barnes was an All-Star closer with the Red Sox in 2021 and briefly one of the game’s most dominant relievers, fanning more than 40% of his opponents for the bulk of that season. He wore down beginning in August and hasn’t been the same since a hip injury. Barnes’ velocity and strikeouts were way down in 2023 before he underwent season-ending surgery. He should have a good chance to win a spot in a Nationals bullpen that has little established talent.

Rosario and Winker are both left-handed-hitting outfielders who are best deployed in left field — with Winker having a particularly shaky defensive reputation. Winker is the younger of the two at 30 years old (to Rosario’s 32). Winker was quietly one of the most productive hitters in baseball against right-handed pitching for much of his time in Cincinnati, but knee and neck surgery in October 2022 look to have taken their toll on him. Rosario was the far more productive hitter in 2023. There may not be room for both veterans on the Washington roster. Winker has been in camp longer and been more productive in their small samples.

Orioles: 2B Kolten Wong

The Orioles seem to bring in a veteran infielder coming off a down season almost every year. It’s Wong’s turn in 2023. The 33-year-old was one of the game’s worst hitters in ’23, slashing just .183/.256/.263 in 250 plate appearances between the Mariners and Dodgers. That was beyond out of character for Wong, who’d been an average or better hitter in five of the past six seasons. If the O’s don’t want to rush Jackson Holliday or Coby Mayo, Wong could win a spot on the roster — but he hasn’t hit that well in camp so far.

Pirates: RHP Chase Anderson

It’s been five years since Anderson’s last solid season in a big league rotation, but the well-liked veteran continues to get work each season. From 2020-23, he’s pitched to a 6.19 ERA in 192 MLB frames — including a 5.42 mark in 86 1/3 innings last year (mostly with the Rockies). Anderson doesn’t miss many bats, but he has good command and is having a nice spring with the Pirates. He’s competing with Luis Ortiz, Jared Jones, Roansy Contreras, Domingo German and others for one of two generally open rotation spots in Pittsburgh.

Rangers: INF Matt Duffy, RHP Shane Greene, RHP Jose Urena

A contact-oriented hitter who can play all over the infield, the 33-year-old Duffy faces an uphill battle with Josh Smith, Ezequiel Duran and Justin Foscue all on the 40-man roster ahead of him. Nathaniel Lowe will open the season on the injured list, but that’ll likely work to Jared Walsh’s benefit more than Duffy.

Greene, 35, is a former All-Star closer/setup man who peaked with the Tigers and Braves from 2017-20. He’s thrown just three innings in each of the past two MLB seasons but also turned in strong numbers with the Cubs in Triple-A last year.

The 32-year-old Urena made five dismal starts for the Rockies early in the 2023 season and five solid ones for the White Sox late in the season. He also pitched well for Chicago’s Triple-A affiliate. A solid arm for the Marlins in 2017-18, Urena has a 5.50 ERA in 350 1/3 MLB frames dating back to 2019. He’s had a nice spring and could be a depth piece for an injury-plagued Rangers rotation.

Rays: RHP Jake Odorizzi

Odorizzi signed last week and will look to get back on track after a shoulder injury cost him the 2023 season. With the exception of an injury-wrecked 2020 season, he’s been a dependable five-inning starter dating back to 2014 (3.98 ERA in 1216 innings). The Rays’ pitching staff is dealing with plenty of injuries, and Odorizzi should be an option for the Rays early in the season.

Red Sox: 1B C.J. Cron, RHP Michael Fulmer, C Roberto Perez, LHP Joely Rodriguez

Cron has four seasons of 25-plus homers under his belt and was consistently an above-average hitter from 2014-22. Injuries tanked his 2023 season, but he has a strong track record of hitting for power — with largely even platoon splits. He’d make a nice right-handed complement to Triston Casas and/or Masataka Yoshida at first base and designated hitter, providing some insurance against an injury to either.

Perez is an all-glove backup who’s never hit much outside the juiced ball season in 2019, when he popped 24 of his 55 career homers. The Sox figure to go with Reese McGuire and Connor Wong behind the plate, making him a long shot to land a roster spot.

Rodriguez signed a big league deal with the Red Sox prior to the 2023 season but only pitched 11 innings due to injury. He’s having a decent spring training — two runs on nine hits and three walks with nine strikeouts in seven innings — and has a good chance to win a spot in a patchwork Red Sox bullpen. If not, his ability to miss bats and pile up grounders would likely draw interest elsewhere.

Fulmer won’t pitch in 2024 after undergoing surgery last summer. His minor league deal is a two-year contract that stretches into 2025. The two sides knew this going into the arrangement and there’s no reason to expect he’ll opt out.

Royals: RHP Tyler Duffey

Duffey was a mainstay in the division-rival Twins’ bullpen and was a high-end setup option at his peak in 2019-21, posting a 2.89 ERA across 144 frames while fanning 29.8% of his opponents. His results slipped in 2022 as he lost some life on his fastball, and he pitched just two MLB frames with the Cubs in 2023. Duffey recently had a procedure to remove a cancerous mole from his shoulder that understandably halted his baseball activity for a bit. He’s hopeful he’ll pitch again this spring, and while the larger takeaway is relief that the melanoma was discovered and quickly treated, his track record could also give him a shot to crack the Royals’ bullpen early in the season.

White Sox: RHP Jesse Chavez, RHP Brad Keller, RHP Dominic Leone, 3B/1B Mike Moustakas, OF Kevin Pillar, RHP Bryan Shaw

Chavez, 40, has been excellent with the Braves in each of the past three seasons but struggled in stints with the Cubs and Angels. He’s having a tough spring with the White Sox but carries a 2.81 ERA in his past 137 2/3 MLB frames, spanning the 2021-23 seasons.

Keller has spent his entire big league career with the Royals but saw his time in Kansas City come to a rough ending. After a three-year run as a solid starter, Keller struggled in three subsequent seasons, culminating in an IL stint for symptoms indicative of thoracic outlet syndrome. He hasn’t pitched in an official spring game for the White Sox.

Leone struggled late in the 2023 season but has a cumulative 3.38 ERA in 157 innings over the past three seasons. He’s having a solid spring training, has late-inning experience, and seems like a decent bet to win a spot in a White Sox bullpen that’s been completely torn down since last summer.

Moustakas has turned in three straight below-average seasons at the plate and is struggling again with the White Sox in camp (.167/.268/.278 in 41 plate appearances). The Sox have Yoan Moncada and Andrew Vaughn at the corners, plus Gavin Sheets as a lefty-swinging first base option (and corner outfielder) off the bench. Moose seems like a long shot to make the club.

Pillar would give the Sox a right-handed complement to lefty-hitting corner outfielders Andrew Benintendi and Dominic Fletcher. He’s 35 and no longer the plus-plus defensive center fielder he once was but could give them some insurance for Luis Robert Jr. in center as well. He hit .228/.248/.416 with nine homers in 206 plate appearances for the Braves last year.

Shaw pitched 45 2/3 innings for the Sox last year and delivered a respectable 4.14 ERA in that time. His production has tailed off substantially since his days as a consistent setup presence in the Cleveland bullpen — evidenced by a 5.07 ERA over his past six seasons. He’s been tagged for a dozen earned runs in 7 1/3 spring frames but does have 10 strikeouts.

MLBTR Podcast: Mutiny In The MLBPA, Blake Snell Signs With The Giants And The Dylan Cease Trade

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • The recent news of the divide in the MLBPA (2:15)
  • The release of J.D. Davis and its impact on the MLBPA situation (8:45)
  • Recent collective bargaining agreement history and its relation to current MLBPA strife (11:30)
  • Giants sign Blake Snell (17:25)
  • Padres acquire Dylan Cease from the White Sox (23:15)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Will the Blue Jays make a run at Juan Soto when he hits free agency next year? (33:35)
  • I don’t understand some of the outfielder signings this offseason. How does Hunter Renfroe command $6.5MM when Adam Duvall only gets $3MM? Why would the Twins trade for Manuel Margot when they could have just re-signed Michael A. Taylor? Is there a logical explanation? Or did the Twins and Royals front offices just screw up? (39:45)
  • Do you think that Emmanuel Clase could be traded at the deadline if the Guardians out of it? If so, what do you think he’d fetch at full strength? (43:00)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Blue Jays Sign Mike Mayers To Minor League Deal

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The Blue Jays announced that they have signed Mike Mayers to a minor league deal. The right-hander has also received an invite to major league Spring Training.

Mayers, 32, is coming off a rough couple of seasons. He signed a minor league deal with the Royals last year and was added to their big league roster to serve in a swing role, but posted an earned run average of 6.15 in 26 1/3 innings over six appearances. His 8.4% walk rate was fine but his 14.3% strikeout rate was well below average. He was outrighted off the roster in June and later traded to the White Sox, putting up poor numbers for the Triple-A affiliates of both clubs, finishing with a combined 6.12 ERA at that level.

With the Angels the year before, he tossed 50 2/3 innings with a 5.68 ERA. His 20.2% strikeout rate was better in that season but 20.8% of his fly balls allowed went over the fence, almost double his 12.1% rate from 2023.

The Jays will undoubtedly be hoping for Mayers to return to his 2020-21 form. Over those two seasons, he made 101 appearances for the Halos and logged 105 innings. He posted a 3.34 ERA in that time, striking out 30.5% of opponents while walking just 8%. He moved up the bullpen chart for the Angels in that time, earning four saves and 22 holds.

Per the data at Statcast, his velocity ticked down as his results went south. His fastball velo was above 94 miles per hour in 2020 and 2021 but dropped to 93.5 mph in 2022 and 92.9 mph last year. His slider, cutter and changeup also lost a tick or two over the past two seasons, while his curveball went up slightly in 2022 before dropping in 2023.

Mayers has recently been getting some work in with Driveline Baseball, as they tweeted out some footage of him throwing, as relayed by Keegan Matheson of MLB.com. It seems the Jays were intrigued enough by his recent form to bring him into camp.

That may have been at least partially motivated by some recent developments to players on their roster. Per Matheson, righties Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson are dealing with arm issues, right elbow inflammation for the former and forearm tightness for the latter. Each player underwent an MRI without finding any structural issues, but the club may be precautious with them in the meantime.

If either or both of those guys miss time, the club will have to rely on its depth. Mayers will now jump into that mix and try to earn his way onto the roster. If he does so, he is out of options but he has just under five years of service time. That means the Jays could retain him for 2025 via arbitration if he earns a roster spot and things go especially well this year.

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