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Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

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Quick postseason exits in 2022 and 2023 left the Blue Jays wondering last winter if their core roster was good enough to compete for a World Series.  Heading into this offseason, the question is now if the Jays' core can even still contend at all, after the team cratered to a 74-88 record.  In what could potentially be Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s last season in Toronto, the Jays are under enormous pressure to turn things around.

Guaranteed Contracts

Other Commitments

2025 financial commitments: $117.72MM
Total future commitments: $246.22MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

After a comparatively average 2023 season, Guerrero responded with a huge year that re-established him as one of baseball's top hitters.  Daulton Varsho also improved to roughly league-average offense, and continued his exceptional glovework in Toronto's outfield.  Alejandro Kirk has quietly become something of the catching equivalent of Varsho, as a standout defender whose bat leaves something to be desired.  Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, and Chris Bassitt were more good than great this season but they bring a lot of durability and general effectiveness to the rotation.  They'll be joined in next year's staff by Bowden Francis, whose sudden emergence in the second half made him like a budding ace, let alone simply worthy of a starting role.

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MLBTR Podcast: Changes In Minnesota, Cubs’ Prospect Depth, And Possibilities For The O’s

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • With Jed Hoyer in the last year of his contract, how aggressive will the Cubs be this offseason? Also, with so many top 100 prospects nearing the majors, how will that impact their offseason decisions? (10:10)
  • What is the feeling about the Orioles possible spending this offseason? Is there a sense of what could happen or is more wait-and-see in the inside baseball world? (26:55)
  • What do the Rangers need to do in this offseason in order to be competitive next year.  Any specific players they need to target? (32:45)
  • Willson Contreras seems like a logical fit for the Blue Jays if the Cardinals decide to move him. Only problem might be the return since the Cardinals want to shed money. Would this be likely? (34:55)
  • The Padres have spent significant resources to build its current roster, but the World Series title continues to elude them. With potential payroll issues looming, how do they maintain their success for 2025 and beyond? They have a good lineup and great bullpen, but how do they avoid being worse in 2025? (39:50)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Previewing FA Starting Pitchers, TV Deals, And Potential Spending Teams – listen here
  • Buster Posey Takes Over In SF And The Cardinals’ Succession Plan – listen here
  • Final Days In Oakland, The Surging Tigers, And If The Nats Will Pursue Juan Soto – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

AL East Notes: Bichette, Yoshida, Cortes

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The Blue Jays had some largely “exploratory” trade talks involving Bo Bichette early last offseason, TSN’s Scott Mitchell writes.  This isn’t exactly new news, as multiple reports last November indicated that the shortstop’s name indeed come up in trade discussions, though those talks were portrayed as other teams checking on Bichette’s availability.  Mitchell, however, specifies that “the Jays did indeed shop Bichette.”

As always, there’s plenty of gray area when parsing hot-stove terminology, as the distinction between actively trying to move Bichette and listening on Bichette trade offers could be pretty thin.  Executives routinely discuss scores of players in trade talks with other clubs, just as a matter of due diligence in gauging interest.  For instance, if Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins had learned that a rival club had a particular interest in Bichette and had a player or players that the Jays liked, Atkins might have been more inclined to “shop” Bichette in that particular direction in order to swing a favorable trade for Toronto.  In any case, as Mitchell observes, revisiting any trade talks involving Bichette this winter could be difficult because the shortstop is coming off an injury-plagued down year, so the Blue Jays aren’t likely to land a premium return even if they did look to move Bichette.

More from around the AL East….

  • “Some clear discord” developed between the Red Sox and Masataka Yoshida last April, MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo writes, when Yoshida was placed on the 10-day injured list with a left thumb sprain.  Yoshida chose to seek out second and third opinions on his sprain, which apparently didn’t sit well with the team, who felt the initial assessment (that Yoshida wouldn’t need surgery) was enough.  Yoshida ended up not needing surgery, and spent a little more than six weeks on the IL before returning in mid-June.  Between this situation and Yoshida’s displeasure at being a DH-only player who mostly faced only right-handed pitching, Cotillo wonders if both sides would benefit from a trade this winter.  Such a move is easier said than done, of course, as Yoshida is owed $54MM over the 2025-27 seasons, and has been good (112 wRC+ in 1001 plate appearances) but not great over his two Major League seasons.  Yoshida was also playing through a shoulder problem for much of 2024, which could represent another red flag for any interested trade suitors.
  • Nestor Cortes is slated to throw between 20-30 times during a game of catch today, the Yankees left-hander told The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty.  This represents the first time Cortes has thrown since suffering a flexor strain in late September.  Cortes said he was “feeling good” in his recovery to date, and “if my body responds and if my arm responds, we’ll try to be as quick as possible” in charting out a potential return to the mound.  The Yankees would naturally need to advance to at least the ALCS in order to give Cortes any chance of pitching again in 2024, and even if New York does get deeper into October, it remains to be seen if Cortes will be able to be healthy enough to merit a roster spot.

11 Players Elect Free Agency

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As the offseason nears, a number of players elect minor league free agency each week. These players are separate from six-year MLB free agents, who’ll reach the open market five days after the conclusion of the World Series. Eligible minor leaguers can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season wraps up. These players were all outrighted off a team’s 40-man roster during the year and have the requisite service time and/or multiple career outrights necessary to reach free agency since they weren’t added back to teams’ rosters.

Electing free agency is the anticipated outcome for these players. There’ll surely be more to test the market in the coming weeks. We’ll offer periodic updates at MLBTR. These transactions are all reflected on the MiLB.com log.

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Pitchers

Ross Atkins Will Return As Blue Jays’ General Manager In 2025

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11:00am: Atkins revealed during his own media availability that bench coach and offensive coordinator Don Mattingly will no longer oversee the team’s offense; he’ll fill a “more traditional” bench coach role. Between the change in Mattingly’s role and the reported firing of hitting coach Guillermo Martinez — which Atkins confirmed — the team will conduct an external search to bring in new voice to oversee the team’s offense.

10:15am: Blue Jays team president Mark Shapiro is currently meeting with the media on the heels of a season he described as a “bitter disappointment” and announced that Ross Atkins will return as the team’s general manager for the 2025 season. “There won’t be a change with Ross,” said Shapiro. (Readers can watch the live press conference via Sportsnet.) The 2024 season was Atkins’ ninth season as Toronto’s general manager after spending 14 seasons as an integral part of Cleveland’s player development department. He signed a five-year contract extension covering the 2022-26 seasons back in April of 2021.

This past season was indeed a disaster for the Jays, who finished out the season at 74-88 — last place in the American League East. The Blue Jays made a spirited run at Shohei Ohtani in free agency last offseason but added primarily complementary pieces after he signed a ten-year deal with the Dodgers. The Toronto front office inked Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Yariel Rodriguez to multi-year contracts, also adding veterans Justin Turner and Kevin Kiermaier on one-year deals (Kiermaier’s second one-year pact with the Jays).

Depth proved to be an Achilles heel for the Jays as injuries mounted. Bo Bichette endured multiple IL stints and was limited to half a season’s worth of uncharacteristically feeble production at the plate. Alek Manoah underwent UCL surgery. Closer Jordan Romano pitched just 13 2/3 rough innings before undergoing arthroscopic elbow surgery. Top prospects Orelvis Martinez (PED suspension) and Ricky Tiedemann (Tommy John surgery) had lost seasons. Meanwhile, key veterans like Kiermaier, George Springer, Danny Jansen, Erik Swanson, Tim Mayza and others turned in performances that were not commensurate with their prior standards. The Jays turned to a host of in-house stopgaps but, particularly in the bullpen, were unable to piece together a serviceable performance.

The end result saw Jansen, Kiner-Falefa, Yusei Kikuchi, Yimi Garcia and Nate Pearson all traded away in deadline swaps for younger talent. The Jays were universally praised for a strong return on Kikuchi, an impending free agent. However, that’s at best a silver lining when considering the team entered the 2024 campaign looking to build on last year’s Wild Card berth into the playoffs and was viewed as a legitimate contender in a deep AL East division.

Heading into the 2025 season, it’ll be incumbent upon Shapiro and Atkins to engineer an immediate turnaround, lest the calls for changes in leadership grow even louder. Asked about the club’s payroll outlook for the ’25 campaign, Shapiro demurred, calling it “early” to ask such a question and suggesting that next month’s GM Meetings or even December’s Winter Meetings would be a time at which he could offer a clearer answer. For now, the club’s president merely suggested he didn’t anticipate player payroll rising or decreasing in a significant manner.

If that’s indeed the case, Atkins will have his work cut out for him. The Jays entered the 2024 season with a club-record $225MM Opening Day payroll. RosterResource currently pegs them for just shy of $125MM in 2025 commitments, not including an arbitration class projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to cost more than $61MM in total. Add in a slate of league-minimum players to round out the roster, and the Jays are at just over $194MM. There are some likely non-tenders in this offseason’s class of arbitration-eligible players, but the group is headlined by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and his projected $29.6MM salary, with notable paydays projected for Romano ($7.75MM), Daulton Varsho ($7.7MM) and Alejandro Kirk ($4.1MM) as well.

Asked multiple times about Guerrero’s future, Shapiro generally sidestepped the question. The slugger is entering his final season of club control before potentially becoming one of the most coveted free agents in recent memory. Manager John Schneider recently touted Guerrero as a generational talent. Asked today whether he agreed with that assessment, Shapiro questioned the definition of what constitutes a generational player and suggested that it’s tough to say right now, noting that Guerrero has the “potential” to become such a player but implying that such a label can’t be placed on him this early in his career.

Atkins spoke more directly on the matter of Guerrero’s future, suggesting that ownership will provide the support to make long-term commitments to both Guerrero and Bichette. That doesn’t guarantee an extension for either player will happen, of course, and Atkins noted that it’s “difficult” to construct a contract of such magnitude for even one player — let alone two players. Still, he voiced confidence that the Jays can support long-term deals for both and still have the resources needed to build a competitive roster around what would presumably be a pair of substantial contracts.

With regard to the forthcoming offseason, Atkins spoke generally about the need to be “more aggressive” with external additions to the roster than the Blue Jays were this past offseason, specifically in the bullpen. He also called adding a power bat “low-hanging fruit” but also noted that it’s not as simple as adding a pure slugger, citing a need to look at contact ability, on-base skills, and strengths against specific pitch types.

Asked whether the aforementioned Rodriguez and Bowden Francis have pitched well enough to solidify their spots in the rotation next season, Atkins praised both pitchers for the job they did in the season’s second half. The Jays will be in the market for both depth and “impact” starting pitching, per Atkins, but with Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt, Rodriguez and Francis all in the fold, the GM said he feels fortunate to not feel a dire need to be in the market for a top free-agent starter.

The manner in which the Jays will pursue upgrades was left fairly open-ended. Both Atkins and Shapiro spoke favorably of the 13 young players Toronto acquired at this season’s trade deadline. Atkins acknowledged that while many of those players are viewed as potential near-term contributors, that influx of talent into the system also opens the door for potential trades involving some of those same prospects. The Blue Jays will explore both the free agent and trade markets as they look to revamp the roster, but it’s clear from both men’s comments today that the club does not plan to take any kind of step back and will endeavor to put a playoff contender on the field next year. That much has been reported at various points since the deadline, but today’s on-record commitment to such an approach from the team’s top two decision-makers is nevertheless notable.

34 Players Elect Free Agency

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As the offseason nears, a number of players elect minor league free agency each week. These players are separate from six-year MLB free agents, who’ll reach the open market five days after the conclusion of the World Series. Eligible minor leaguers can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season wraps up. These players were all outrighted off a team’s 40-man roster during the year and have the requisite service time and/or multiple career outrights necessary to reach free agency since they weren’t added back to teams’ rosters.

Electing free agency is the anticipated outcome for these players. There’ll surely be more to test the market in the coming weeks. We’ll offer periodic updates at MLBTR. These transactions are all reflected on the MiLB.com log.

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Designated Hitter

Pitchers

Blue Jays Making Several Changes To Coaching Staff

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Oct. 1: In addition to Martinez, the Blue Jays are reassigning field coordinator Gil Kim and assistant pitching coach Jeff Ware, reports Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. It seems they’ll remain with the club in other capacities but will no longer have direct roles on the major league staff. Assistant pitching coach David Howell is also slated for reassignment, per Davidi.

Kim was hired back in 2016, taking on the role of director of player development. He’s been on the big league staff since 2020. Ware was a minor league pitching coordinator and pitching coach in the Jays’ system for several years before joining the big league staff with a particular focus on the team’s bullpen in 2023. Howell was in his third season on the big league staff, and his focus has been on general pitching strategy.

Toronto will be on the lookout for some new staffers heading into the 2025 season and it’s possible that additional changes will be made.

Sept. 30: The Blue Jays are parting ways with hitting coach Guillermo Martinez, reports Scott Mitchell of TSN (X link). It’s the first change to John Schneider’s staff on the heels of a disappointing season.

Martinez has been Toronto’s hitting coach since the 2018-19 offseason. The Jays have also employed Don Mattingly as bench coach and offensive coordinator for the past couple seasons. However the Jays divided responsibilities between Mattingly and Martinez, they’ll look for a new voice at hitting coach.

The Jays had high expectations this year after winning between 89 and 92 games in each of the previous three seasons. Instead, Toronto finished at the bottom of the AL East with a 74-88 showing. The offense was a big part of that. The Jays finished 23rd in MLB with 671 runs. Their rate stats were closer to average. They hit .241/.313/.389, finishing between 13th and 20th in the slash categories. The Jays were 26th in home runs, though, certainly not providing the kind of power they’d anticipated. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. connected on 30 homers; no one else on the team reached 20.

Guerrero looks like a top 10 hitter in MLB. The Jays got promising work out of rookie infielder Spencer Horwitz. There wasn’t a ton else that went right for the team offensively. Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Justin Turner were traded midseason. Leo Jiménez was the only other hitter (minimum 200 plate appearances) with a better than average wRC+, and his .229/.329/.358 line was marginally above par. Toronto’s biggest focus on the offensive side is getting Bo Bichette back on track. The star shortstop entered the 2024 campaign as a career .299/.340/.487 hitter. He hit .225/.277/.322 this season around a trio of injured list stints.

AL Notes: Reinsdorf, Blue Jays, Rays, Diaz

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The White Sox won five of their last six games but couldn’t avoid history, as the 41-121 club had the most losses of any team in the modern era.  In an open letter to fans today, White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf described the season in such terms as “a failure,” “embarrassing,” “completely unacceptable,” and others, while noting that “as the leader of this organization, that is my ultimate responsibility.  There are no excuses.”

In terms of what is next, Reinsdorf said the team is “embracing new ideas and outside perspectives” to get things on track.  “This will include further development of players on our current roster, development within our system, evaluating the trade and free agent markets to improve our ballclub and new leadership for our analytics department, allowing us to elevate and improve every process within our organization with a focus for competing for championships….When named general manager in 2023, Chris Getz and his staff immediately began conducting a top-to-bottom evaluation of our existing operations.  Chris is rebuilding the foundation of our baseball operations department, with key personnel changes already happening in player development, international scouting, professional scouting and analytics.  Some of these changes will be apparent quickly while others will need time to produce the results we all want to see at the major-league level.”

More from around the American League…

  • John Schneider listed catching, bullpen, and power hitting as the Blue Jays’ biggest offseason needs, the manager told The Athletic’s Kaitlyn McGrath and other reporters today.  “I think you need a little bit more than just a [catcher] that’s going to play once or twice a week,” Schneider said, implying that Toronto will be looking for a timeshare partner for Alejandro Kirk rather than a backup.  Finding help behind the plate could be tricky in a typically thin free agent catching market, though Kirk’s offensive improvement in the second half of the season provides some hope that Kirk can get back to his All-Star form from 2022.  Basically any improvement is needed for a bullpen that was one of the worst in baseball, but Schneider specified that “I think that you need unique looks and unique stuff — stuff that complements one another, guys that can do different things.”  How the Jays address these needs and several other roster holes will be a challenge for a team that is still largely reliant on such core players as Kirk, Bo Bichette, George Springer, and others to be much better than they were in 2024.
  • The Rays are another AL East team with an underachieving lineup, and Yandy Diaz unsurprisingly feels that “one or two more bats” are needed this winter, the infielder told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.  Diaz’s own production dropped from the highs of his 2022-23 seasons, as a slow start diminished his numbers even if Diaz returned to his usual form over time.  In fact, Diaz’s most productive month (.879 OPS) came in September, even though he said he was dealing with patellar tendinitis in his left knee.  Diaz isn’t worried that the injury will require any surgical treatment, and said “I need to work on my strength, my knee and exercises, and get ready for Spring Training, and hopefully everything’s going to be OK.”
  • In other Rays news from Topkin, the team intends to retain its coaching staff for next season.  Of course, outside factors could complicate these plans, as rival clubs routinely interviews Rays coaches for other jobs, such as managerial or bench coach vacancies.

Bo Bichette To Undergo Surgery On Fractured Finger

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Blue Jays manager John Schneider told reporters (including Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet) that shortstop Bo Bichette is slated to undergo surgery to repair a displaced fracture in his right middle finger. Bichette was placed on the injured list due to the fracture last week in a move that had already brought his 2024 season to a close, and Schneider indicated that Bichette “should be good to go” come Spring Training in February.

Bichette, 26, endured the worst season of his career this year as he battled injuries and ineffectiveness all year. The two-time All-Star was limited to just 81 games this season due to multiple IL stints caused by calf strains this year, and even when healthy enough to take the field he hit a lackluster .225/.277/.322 (70 wRC+) in 336 trips to the plate. That’s a less than ideal slash line for any regular big leaguer, but it’s especially troublesome for a young star who has never posted a wRC+ below 120 in his major league career prior to this year.

Prior to this year’s injury-marred blip, Bichette has been among the most consistent stars in the league with a career slash line of .299/.340/.487 (127 wRC+) entering the 2024 campaign. That strong pedigree was enough to generate some trade buzz regarding Bichette ahead of this year’s trade deadline as the Blue Jays fell out of the postseason picture, though the club seemed hesitant to deal either him or fellow star Vladimir Guerrero Jr. before Bichette’s injury woes ultimately snuffed out whatever possibility for a deal to come together there may have been.

Looking ahead to the offseason, the Blue Jays have generally indicated that they hope to return to contention in 2025, and if truly the club is committed to putting the best possible team on the field for next season it’s hard to imagine that being possible while also dealing either Bichette or Guerrero this winter. Of course, that doesn’t mean a trade of either or even both stars is impossible with one year left before the pair heads to free agency, and it seems likely that this surgery will do little to dissuade interested parties from pursuing the shortstop given that he’s expected to be ready to go by the time Spring Training rolls around.

The Blue Jays also provided an update on the status of center fielder Daulton Varsho today in the aftermath of his previously announced surgery to repair a rotator cuff injury in his shoulder. As noted by Scott Mitchell of SportsCenter, no further damage was discovered in Varsho’s successful rotator cuff surgery today, leading to a standard procedure. That said, Toronto was unwilling to commit to Varsho being ready for Spring Training when his surgery was first announced, and Mitchell indicates even with the procedure completed his readiness for the start of camp is still up in the air.

According to Mitchell, Varsho’s current timeline has him “toeing the line” to be fully ready for this spring even in the event that he avoids any setbacks over the offseason. Still, even a delayed start to Spring Training wouldn’t necessarily stop the outfielder from being back in time to make the club’s Opening Day roster in 2025. The 28-year-old enjoyed a solid season in 2024, slashing a roughly league average .214/.293/.407 (99 wRC+) while also chipping in ten stolen bases and playing superb defense in center field.

Blue Jays Reinstate, Option Orelvis Martinez

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The Blue Jays announced Tuesday that they’ve reinstated top prospect Orelvis Martinez from the restricted list and optioned him to their spring training complex. Daulton Varsho, who recently underwent shoulder surgery, was moved to the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster.

It’s a procedural move. Martinez was hit with an 80-game PED suspension earlier this season and has completed that lengthy ban. Varsho’s season is obviously over, so moving him to the 60-day injured list creates roster space in the short-term while kicking the more pressing decisions regarding 40-man openings down the road a bit. Varsho, Will Wagner, Alek Manoah and Jordan Romano will all need to be reinstated from the 60-day IL at the beginning of the offseason. Ryan Yarbrough reaching free agency will open one spot, but the Jays will need to open a trio of other spots, which will likely be accomplished by outrighting some fringe players.

Martinez, 22, appeared in just one major league game before his suspension was handed down. He’s long rated among not just the top prospects in Toronto’s system but in the entire sport. He posted a .267/.346/.523 slash in Triple-A this season before being called up — numbers that align neatly with the .263/.340/.507 line he put up in a half season of Triple-A games in 2023.

The 2024 season should have marked an opportunity for Martinez to establish himself as a key piece of the Jays’ future. Toronto traded veterans like Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Justin Turner at the deadline. Shortstop Bo Bichette has endured three different IL stints and will finish the season with only 81 games played. Instead, Martinez watched idly after testing positive for a banned substance, creating questions about his future both because he couldn’t seize the opportunities that would’ve otherwise presented themselves and because PED bans naturally trigger questions about the legitimacy of prior performance.

As it stands, the Jays will head into the 2025 season with Bichette, Wagner, Ernie Clement, Addison Barger and Leo Jimenez in the mix for infield reps. There’s been some speculation about a potential trade of Bichette, but all indications are that Toronto wants to take another stab at contending in 2025. Bichette would presumably be a large part of that effort, and selling low on him would be tough for the front office anyhow. Clement has had a strong season, particularly with the glove, but none of those infielders have played so well that they’d stand as a firm impediment to Martinez in the event that the top prospect forces his way into the mix. He’ll need to earn a look next year, particularly after sitting half the current season on the sidelines for disciplinary reasons, but the unsettled infield mix should create some opportunities — even if the Jays are likely to bring in some veteran help over the winter.

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