Latest On Blue Jays, Pete Alonso
5:30pm: Tim Healey of Newsday provides a similar report to Martino, saying that the two sides are deep in talks. However, Shi Davidi and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet report that there’s no gaining momentum for the Jays to sign Alonso or Scherzer.
3:05pm: The Blue Jays have been known for a while to have interest in free agent first baseman Pete Alonso. Andy Martino of SNY reports today that talks between the two sides are “advancing,” though he cautions that nothing is done yet and it can’t be certain that a deal will be completed.
Though nothing is done yet, it would be quite an interesting offseason pivot for the Jays if they could get the deal over the line. For the first few months of the winter, the club was defined by coming up just short in their pursuits of free agents like Juan Soto, Max Fried, Corbin Burnes and Roki Sasaki. When combined with last winter’s near miss on Shohei Ohtani and a disappointing 2024 season, frustration was high among the fanbase.
The volume of the murmuring decreased somewhat in recent days as the Jays signed outfield Anthony Santander to provide the lineup with a power boost. But even after that deal, it didn’t seem as though the Jays were done. They reportedly still have payroll space and have been recently connected to players like Alonso, Jurickson Profar and Max Scherzer.
If Alonso is ultimately brought north of the border alongside Santander, the two would make for fairly similar additions. Both players have power as their clear best trait, with their other contributions a bit more muted.
Alonso has clubs 226 home runs over the past six seasons, which puts him second only to Aaron Judge for that span. But despite that huge power, he has lingered unsigned in free agency as spring training is just over the horizon.
That is perhaps due to the other parts of his profile. His 9.9% career walk rate is a bit above average but not by much. He doesn’t have huge speed on the basepaths. The reviews on his defense have been mixed, with Alonso having earned +2 Defensive Runs Saved in his career but getting a grade of -24 from Outs Above Average. His offense has also been relatively lower of late. He slashed .261/.349/.535 through 2022 for a wRC+ of 137, but then hit .229/.324/.480 for a 121 wRC+ over the past two years.
That’s still really strong production but it’s possible that it contributed to a gap between what Alonso and his reps were expecting from free agency and what clubs were willing to offer. The power-only right-handed slugger is a profile that hasn’t been paid well in a while and Alonso’s recent dip may not have helped him.
Many expected him and the Mets to reunite but the club didn’t seem too keen on that. Even as Alonso and his reps have pivoted to considering short-term deals recently, the Mets apparently capped their offer in the range of $68-70MM over three years. That amounts to something close to $23MM annually, a lower average annual value than Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery were able to get even though they remained unsigned into February/March of last year.
It’s unclear what kind of terms Alonso and Jays are discussing, but he would be a sensible fit for them, despite his flaws. The Jays had some strengths last year but power was a clear weakness. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was the only guy on the club to get to the 20-homer plateau. The team-wide tally of 156 long balls was 26th out of the 30 clubs in the league, ahead of only the Marlins, Rays, Nationals and White Sox.
Their walk rate, however, trailed only six teams. Their defense was considered quite strong, with DRS having them tops in the majors and OAA considering them the fourth-best. Therefore, adding a player who mostly provides power was a sensible target coming into the offseason.
They already made one such addition with Santander. Like Alonso, his power is a greater strength than his defense, speed or on-base ability. But the Jays are seemingly willing to go after the weakest part of their 2024 club and attack it.
Fitting everyone into the lineup would be a bit of a challenge. The Jays already have a first baseman in Guerrero. With Alonso on the club, the two would presumably share first base and the designated hitter spot somewhat regularly. Guerrero has played a bit of third base in his career but only 14 games in the past five seasons. Most of those came last year as the club was playing out the string on a lost season.
Without Alonso on the club, corner outfielders Santander and George Springer make sense as the top candidates to receive lengthy stints in the DH spot. As mentioned, Santander is not a great fielder. Springer has been a good defender in his career but is now 35 years old and he’s naturally sliding a bit in that department. Adding Alonso would limit the ability of the Jays to use Springer or Santander in the DH spot, unless they are willing to put Guerrero at third more often than expected. As of now, Ernie Clement profiles as the club’s best option at the hot corner. Since he’s more of a glove-first guy capable of playing other positions, it’s possible he could be deployed in more of a utility role. Speculatively speaking, it’s possible the Jays could start some games with Guerrero and Alonso at the corners, with Clement subbing in at third late in the game if the club is ahead and wants to prioritize defense. At that point, either Guerrero or Alonso could head to the bench, with the other at first.
It’s an interesting gambit and time will tell if the two sides get anything done. The Jays apparently still have some money to spend and have some options available. Whether that’s Alonso, Profar, Scherzer, someone else or some combination, it appears they are still busy in trying to salvage the offseason after a few misses earlier on.
Signing Alonso would also require the club to forfeit a draft pick and $500K of international bonus pool space because he rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets. The Jays already gave up pool space to sign Santander but added $2MM in the ill-fated Myles Straw deal when they were courting Sasaki, so they probably aren’t especially worried about that part. Since they already surrendered their second-best pick in the upcoming draft to get Santander, signing Alonso would mean also forfeiting their third-highest pick. The Mets would receive a compensation pick for Alonso leaving, but as a club that paid the competitive balance tax last year, that pick wouldn’t come until after the fourth round.
Rays Acquire Brandon Eisert
The Rays have acquired left-hander Brandon Eisert from the Blue Jays, according to announcements from both clubs. The Jays, who designated Eisert for assignment earlier this week when they signed Anthony Santander, receive cash considerations in return. The Rays had an open 40-man spot and don’t need to make a corresponding move.
Eisert, 27, joins the second club of his career. Selected by the Blue Jays in the 18th-round of the 2019 draft, he worked his way up to make his major league debut last year. To this point, his big league track record is minimal. He tossed 6 2/3 innings for the Jays last year, allowing three earned runs.
The Rays are surely more interested in the southpaw’s minor league numbers, which have generally been strong. Over the past four years, he has logged 264 2/3 innings on the farm with a 3.76 earned run average, 29.1% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate.
Despite the strong minor league results, Eisert lacks the power arsenal clubs are usually looking to get from relievers these days. His fastball only averaged 91.2 miles per hour during his brief major league work. It was a tick lower in Triple-A, coming in at 90.2 mph last year. Perhaps the Jays expected that the relatively lower velocity would prevent him from succeeding in the majors as much as he did in the minors.
The Rays had an open roster spot and will use it to get a close-up look at Eisert. He still has options, which is surely appealing for a club that regularly rotates arms on and off its roster throughout the season. Garrett Cleavinger is the top lefty reliever on the club right now. They gave Mason Montgomery some work in the big league bullpen last year but he’s mostly been a starter in the minors. Eisert and Montgomery both have options, so it wouldn’t be a surprise for Tampa to have them taking turns on the big league roster as the second lefty behind Cleavinger, while shuttling to Triple-A from time to time.
MLBTR Podcast: Debating A Salary Cap, How To Improve Parity, More Dodgers Moves, And Anthony Santander
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- MLBTR’s poll asking whether fans want an MLB salary cap (0:30)
- What does parity mean? (5:25)
- Trying to assess where things stand for the next round of CBA talks (11:20)
- How much would a salary cap actually improve parity and what other paths are there? (17:40)
- What is the mentality of the players right now? (24:50)
- How baseball is not like the other major sports (28:35)
- The Dodgers trio of recent pitching additions: Roki Sasaki, Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates (31:55)
- The Blue Jays signing Anthony Santander (40:30)
Check out our past episodes!
- The Jeff Hoffman Situation, Justin Verlander, And The Marlins’ Rotation – listen here
- Brent Rooker’s Extension, Gavin Lux, And Catching Up On The Holiday Transactions – listen here
- Kyle Tucker To The Cubs, And Trades For Devin Williams And Jeffrey Springs – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Blue Jays Sign Christian Bethancourt, Richard Lovelady To Minor League Deals
The Blue Jays announced Wednesday that they’ve signed catcher Christian Bethancourt and left-hander Richard Lovelady to minor league contracts. Both players have been invited to major league camp during spring training.
Bethancourt, 33, had a decent showing at the plate as recently as 2022, when he slashed .252/.283/.409 (99 wRC+) with 11 homers in 101 games between the A’s and Rays. His bat has tanked since that time, with a combined .220/.250/.377 between Tampa Bay, Miami and Chicago (Cubs).
Once one of the game’s top-100 prospects, Bethancourt has never really found his footing as a big league regular. He moved on from catching entirely at one point, attempting to reinvent himself as a reliever, but he’s now spent several years back behind the plate. He’s a lifetime .229/.259/.367 hitter in the big leagues.
While that offense (or lack thereof) leaves plenty to be desired, Bethancourt has controlled the running game quite nicely thanks to a rocket arm that received 80 grades (on the 20-80 scale) during his prospect days. As the average caught-stealing rate has dropped to just 20.3% leaguewide following tweaks to the size of the bases and limits on pickoff attempts, Bethancourt has excelled. He thwarted 30% of stolen base attempts against him last year. Dating back to 2022, Bethancourt boasts a gaudy 29.9% caught-stealing rate. Over the past four seasons, only J.T. Realmuto, Patrick Bailey and Gabriel Moreno have contributed more value with their throwing, among catchers, per Statcast.
Bethancourt won’t be in the mix for the starting job in Toronto. That belongs to Alejandro Kirk. But the Jays’ only other catcher on the 40-man roster right now is journeyman Tyler Heineman, who has a .212/.298/.273 slash in 299 career plate appearances in the majors. Bethancourt could very well be in the mix for that spot, though time will tell if the Jays bring in a more established veteran to solidify that critical role. As it stands, an injury to Kirk would leave Toronto with Heineman and one of Bethancourt or fellow non-roster invitee Ali Sanchez as manager John Schneider’s top options behind the dish.
Lovelady, 29, split the 2024 season between the Cubs and Rays, struggling with the former but pitching pretty well for the latter. The southpaw gave Tampa Bay 28 2/3 innings of 3.77 ERA ball, albeit with a sub-par 16.8% strikeout rate. Lovelady’s 7.6% walk rate and 53.5% ground-ball rate were both strong marks, however, and the lefty has long shown an interesting blend of missed bats and grounders to go along with solid command.
Even with a decent showing for Tampa Bay, Lovelady was cut loose in November. The Rays designated him for assignment to open roster space for outfielder Jake Mangum, whom they wanted to protect from the Rule 5 Draft. Lovelady was non-tendered rather than traded or placed on waivers, immediately making him a free agent.
In 99 1/3 big league innings, Lovelady has a 21.1% strikeout rate, 8.4% walk rate and 50.9% grounder rate. He’s still been tagged for a 4.98 earned run average, thanks in large part to a 66% strand rate, but metrics like xFIP (4.27) and SIERA (4.02) have been more bullish than ERA. He’ll now try to catch on in Toronto, where the only lefty relievers on the 40-man roster are the inexperienced trio of Brendon Little, Easton Lucas and Josh Walker. Prospect Adam Macko also throws left-handed, but the Jays hope his future is in the rotation.
Dodgers Sign Roki Sasaki
Jan. 22: The Dodgers have formally announced Sasaki’s signing. Baseball America, unsurprisingly, ranked Sasaki as the new No. 1 prospect in baseball this morning.
Jan. 17: The Dodgers have landed another star out of Japan. Roki Sasaki announced on Friday evening that he’s signing with Los Angeles. The Wasserman client will reportedly receive a $6.5MM signing bonus. The Dodgers have not officially announced the deal, which can be finalized at any point until the evening of January 23.
As an international amateur, Sasaki is limited to a minor league contract with a hard-capped signing bonus. He won’t immediately occupy a 40-man roster spot, though the team will certainly select him onto the MLB roster by Opening Day. In the end, it’s a fairly unsurprising result, though other outcomes seemed somewhat possible at times. The Dodgers have long been seen as the most logical landing spot for Sasaki, and though the Padres and Blue Jays tried to make surprising runs, the most likely outcome has now come to pass.
Sasaki’s free agency has been hotly anticipated for some time. He made his debut in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball in 2021 at the young age of 19 and went on to post outstanding results over the past few years. Thanks to triple-digit velocity on his fastball and a deadly splitter, he has managed to post a 2.10 earned run average in 394 2/3 innings over the past four years. He struck out 32.7% of batters faced and limited walks to a 5.7% clip.
That performance would have made him one of the top free agents of this or any offseason, which normally would have lined him up for a massive payday. However, Sasaki seemed determined to start his major league career as soon as possible, without much regard for money.
If he had waited until he turned 25, he would have been considered a professional under MLB rules, and thus able to sign for any amount the market would bear. That was the route taken by Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who secured a $325MM guarantee from the Dodgers last offseason.
But Sasaki is making the move now, having just turned 23 years old, meaning he is considered an amateur and thus subject to MLB’s international bonus pool system. Under that system, each team gets a set amount to spend on international amateurs annually. This year, each team gets between $5-8MM, a paltry amount compared to what Yamamoto secured. That at least made it theoretically possible that any club could sign him, since the big-spending clubs couldn’t outmuscle the smaller clubs like with many other free agents.
However, despite that theoretical even playing field, there were still many good reasons to expect the Dodgers to emerge victorious. Sasaki and his agent Joel Wolfe didn’t reveal much about the player’s preferences, but logically, the Dodgers are an attractive landing spot. They play on the West Coast, which is often appealing for players coming over from Asia simply due to the relative proximity. They have a strong track record of on-field success, having made the playoffs in each year going back to 2013 now and having just won the World Series a few months ago. They also roster a couple of other Japanese stars in Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani.
It wasn’t known how much Sasaki would weigh those factors compared to others. Wolfe pushed back on the notion that Sasaki cared about the presence of other Japanese players. He also suggested last month that Sasaki might prefer a smaller market, on account of some friction with the media during his time in Japan.
There were some arguments to possibly consider scenarios where he would prefer to go elsewhere. The Padres could have offered a smaller market than the Dodgers and it was reported that Sasaki has a strong relationship with current Padre Yu Darvish. The Blue Jays are owned by Rogers Communications, the club’s primary broadcaster, potentially giving them the ability to lower Sasaki’s access to the media. The fact that they are the only MLB team in Canada also theoretically opened up more endorsement opportunities from Japanese companies, as opposed to sharing the L.A. market with Ohtani and Yamamoto. The Jays also had a larger international bonus pool than the Dodgers and added to it by acquiring more pool space from the Guardians in a trade earlier today.
But despite any short-term drama that played out this offseason, the most obvious thing has happened. Sasaki has joined a team that is already loaded with stars like Ohtani, Yamamoto, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. 2005 was the last time the Dodgers won fewer than 80 games and now they are adding another hugely talented player into the mix.
Adding Sasaki’s talent is a huge boost to the roster but it’s also massive from a financial point of view. As an amateur, Sasaki will only be able to make the league minimum this year and until he qualifies for arbitration or signs an extension. That’s a massive thing for a club like the Dodgers, who already owe big sums of money to their aforementioned stars as well as Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Teoscar Hernández and plenty of others.
It also gives them an embarrassment of riches in the rotation, at least in terms of pure talent. Their rotation mix now includes Sasaki, Ohtani, Yamamoto, Glasnow, Snell, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May. It’s a near inevitability that Clayton Kershaw will eventually re-sign. Even with each of Gavin Stone, Emmet Sheehan, Kyle Hurt and River Ryan set to miss most or all of next season, the Dodgers’ rotation should run eight or nine names deep. Landon Knack, Justin Wrobleski, Nick Frasso and formerly touted rookie Bobby Miller are all on hand as depth starters.
It’s a staggering amount of talent for one team. The Dodgers won the World Series last year in spite of their playoff rotation. This year, the rotation should be a strength going into October. That’s despite the injury risk associated with essentially everyone in the group. Glasnow has never surpassed 134 MLB innings in a season. Yamamoto was limited to 18 starts in his first MLB season by a rotator cuff strain. Snell has only topped 130 frames twice. Kershaw, Gonsolin and May all missed most or all of last season recovering from major surgeries. Ohtani underwent elbow surgery late in 2023 and didn’t pitch last year.
Sasaki comes with plenty of durability questions in his own right. He averaged fewer than 100 innings per season over his four years in NPB. He never reached 130 innings and was limited to 111 frames across 18 appearances a year ago. Sasaki had a pair of injuries in 2024: an oblique tear and shoulder fatigue.
The Dodgers will happily take the tradeoff of some IL stints for rate dominance. Los Angeles doesn’t place much value on bulk innings. They’re content to embrace injury risk as they chase pitchers with top-of-the-rotation upside. That’s enabled in part by their resources, of course, though money isn’t a factor for Sasaki.
Every team would have been thrilled to sign Sasaki for $6.5MM. The Dodgers will also owe a $1.3MM posting fee to the pitcher’s NPB team, the Chiba Lotte Marines. The posting fee is proportional to the size of the player’s signing bonus. As Sasaki’s bonus was capped at a few million dollars, the Marines were limited to 20% of whatever he received.
It comes out to a $7.8MM investment to land Japan’s most talented pitcher. The Dodgers have signed arguably NPB’s best pitcher in consecutive offseasons. They’ll have Sasaki for the standard six-year window of team control associated with the promotion of any prospect. He’ll be slated for salaries around the league minimum for the next three seasons. He’d then go through three years of the arbitration process. MLB rules prohibit the Dodgers and Sasaki from reaching any kind of understanding regarding a contract extension to circumvent the bonus pool limits. While there’s no official cutoff for when the Dodgers could look to extend Sasaki, they cannot have any sort of unofficial long-term deal in the works right now.
The Dodgers opened this signing period tied with the Giants for the lowest bonus pool. They had $5.1462MM to spend on international amateurs on January 15. The Dodgers allowed a few of their verbal agreements with teenage prospects to lapse to keep open funds for Sasaki. They added to their pool by dealing minor league outfielder Dylan Campbell to the Phillies and sending outfield prospect Arnaldo Lantigua to Cincinnati tonight. Their precise bonus allotment isn’t known, but Sasaki will take the vast majority of the pool. That’s a trade every team would happily make for a potential plug-and-play ace.
It’s a brutal blow for fans of the other two finalists. The Padres found out this morning that they were out of the mix. They have multiple holes in their rotation and now face an even tougher challenge in the NL West. The Blue Jays finish as the runner-up on yet another marquee free agent talent. Toronto has lost out on Ohtani, Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes and Sasaki (among others) within the past two offseasons alone.
Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times first reported the signing bonus. Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Blue Jays Still Have Payroll Space After Santander Signing
The Blue Jays held their introductory press conference for big-ticket free agent acquisition Anthony Santander on Tuesday. General manager Ross Atkins told the Toronto beat that the club still has some financial flexibility after finalizing that five-year pact (link via Keegan Matheson of MLB.com).
Atkins didn’t provide much in the way of specific targets. He noted generally that the front office will continue to pursue upgrades on both the position player and pitching sides. Toronto has been linked to the likes of Max Scherzer and Jurickson Profar within the past few days. They’ve long been tied to Alex Bregman and Nick Pivetta and have been mentioned as a potential Pete Alonso suitor. Most of the top remaining free agents have been at least loosely connected to the Jays at some point over the offseason.
If the Jays make a move on the pitching side, they could focus on the rotation. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet wrote on Monday that they have been “less aggressive” in attacking the bullpen since they signed Jeff Hoffman to a three-year deal. Toronto had acquired Nick Sandlin and re-signed Yimi García earlier in the offseason. They join holdovers Chad Green and Erik Swanson as potential leverage options. That’s still not the most formidable bullpen, but it’s far better than the group which Toronto carried into the offseason.
A rotation pickup could also indirectly improve the relief corps. Yariel Rodríguez can pitch in either role. He’s currently penciled in as the fifth starter behind Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Bowden Francis. Signing a starter would allow the Jays to use Rodríguez as a multi-inning reliever if everyone is healthy coming out of camp.
There are a few areas for possible upgrade on the position player side. Even after adding Santander, they could accommodate a corner outfielder. Adding a left fielder would allow them to keep Santander in right field and use George Springer as a designated hitter and rotational outfielder. Their third basemen are mostly unproven at the major league level, though a second big infield pickup (following the Andrés Giménez trade) could block the path for the likes of Will Wagner, Orelvis Martinez and Addison Barger to get opportunities to prove themselves.
The Jays dipped narrowly below the luxury tax threshold last year. They’re well beyond the $241MM base number this season. RosterResource calculates their CBT figure around $263MM — $2MM above the second penalization tier. That includes an $18.5MM estimate for Santander, though the deferrals in his contract are expected to push the “true” average annual value closer to $14MM. That could drop the Jays back into the first tier once the Santander terms are fully reported, but any acquisition of significance is likely to push them back into the second tier.
Toronto will pay a 20% tax on spending between $241MM and $261MM and will be taxed at a 32% rate for spending between $261MM and $281MM. The penalties escalate further if they go past $281MM, which would also push their top pick in the 2026 draft back by 10 spots.
Blue Jays, Astros Among Teams Interested In Jurickson Profar
It’s been a quiet winter for Jurickson Profar thus far, but with fellow outfielders Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernandez and Tyler O’Neill all off the board now, Profar stands as the top corner outfield bat on the market. The Blue Jays, who just signed Santander for five years, and the Astros are among the teams with interest in the switch-hitting Profar, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported on the MLB Network this morning (video link). The incumbent Padres have also been tied to Profar this winter and very clearly love him as a player and person, but it’s far from clear the front office will have that kind of spending power. The Friars have reportedly been working to scale back payroll this winter, and that was before recent ownership tumult.
Profar, 32 next month, is fresh off a career year where he improved in just about every measurable category. His .280 average, .380 on-base percentage and .459 slugging percentage all ranked as career-best marks. The former top prospect made massive gains in exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate, all while posting his best walk rate (11.4%) since 2021 and his lowest strikeout rate (15.1%) since 2020. Profar has long had a plus eye and excellent bat-to-ball skills, but the contact he made was often lacking punch. That wasn’t at all the case in 2024, as he swatted a career-high 24 homers and tacked on 29 doubles in 158 games/668 plate appearances.
The fit with Toronto isn’t as clean with Santander now in the fold on a $92.5MM contract, but there’s still room to move things around. Playing Santander regularly in right field — or having Santander and George Springer split time between right field and designated hitter — would open up left field for Profar (who could see occasional DH time himself). That’d likely come at the expense of playing time for Nathan Lukes and Will Wagner, but Profar would be a pronounced upgrade over both if he can replicate or even approximate last year’s breakout showing.
Payroll-wise, the Jays’ signing of Santander pushed them up into the second tier of luxury penalization. They very narrowly dipped under the tax line in 2024, resetting their penalty level in the process, meaning they’d be on the hook for a 32% for any dollars allocated to Profar (or another free agent). They’re currently projected by RosterResource at $237MM of Opening Day payroll, which would be a club record.
Turning to Houston, their outfield is a clear weak spot on the roster — at least on paper — following the trade of Kyle Tucker to the Cubs. Houston will have Jake Meyer in center field, where he’ll be flanked by a combination of Chas McCormick, Taylor Trammell and Mauricio Dubon. Other options on the 40-man roster include Kenedy Corona, Pedro Leon and Cooper Hummel. Clearly, an upgrade would be a worthwhile pursuit.
Ownership’s wherewithal to make such an addition is an open question. Jim Crane has said he’s open to paying the luxury tax for a second straight season — and just the second time in his ownership tenure — but there’s been mixed messaging with regard to his actions. On the one hand, Houston offered Alex Bregman a reported six-year, $156MM contract. That’s a legitimate offer, and the corresponding $26MM average annual value would’ve sent the ‘Stros careening into the middle tiers of luxury penalty.
On the other hand, trading Tucker, even with an extension unlikely, represents a step in the opposite direction. Granted, that swap helped to pave the way for the signing of Christian Walker on a three-year, $60MM deal. But, it can be argued that if Crane were truly amenable to stepping over that tax threshold, he could’ve fit Tucker and Walker onto the roster. The team has also been shopping reliever Ryan Pressly throughout the offseason, and general manager Dana Brown even kicked the winter off by speaking of a need to “get creative” with payroll. None of those facts portend a willingness to exceed the tax barrier — at least not by any notable amount.
As things stand, RosterResource has the Astros over the tax threshold, but only by a narrow margin of about $3MM. A trade of Pressly or another player — e.g. McCormick, Dubon, Victor Caratini — could drop them back under that line, but it’d be tough to shoehorn Profar in under the barrier without finding a trade partner for Pressly and another player. If Crane is willing to take a small CBT hit, knowing dead-money commitments to Jose Abreu and Rafael Montero will help them reset their penalty level next offseason, then moving Pressly on its own might be enough to make things line up.
Time will tell how the market for Profar plays out, but he’s now the most-productive left fielder still sitting on the market. He’s reportedly been seeking a three-year pact. It’s unlikely that’d come with the type of AAV secured by Hernandez ($22MM) or Santander ($18.5MM), but something in the range of O’Neill’s three-year, $49.5MM contract wouldn’t have seemed too outlandish coming into the offseason. With many teams already having filled their roster needs, demand might not be sufficient to get Profar to such heights, but a multi-year deal and eight-figure AAV still seem plenty feasible.
Blue Jays Sign Anthony Santander
The Blue Jays finally have a big splash, plucking a slugger from a division rival. The Jays officially announced the signing of star outfielder Anthony Santander to a five-year contract. The Beverly Hills Sports Council client is reportedly guaranteed $92.5MM, though heavy deferrals drop the net present value. For luxury tax purposes, the contract reportedly comes with an average annual value around $14MM — suggesting MLB calculates the net present value closer to $70MM. Santander can opt out after the third year, though the club will have the ability to override that by picking up an option for 2030. That has a base value of $15MM and contains a $5MM buyout.
The option and various escalators could tack on another $17.5MM over that sixth season. The deal is frontloaded and contains upwards of $35MM in deferrals, which can push beyond $50MM depending on the opt-out/option result. Toronto designated lefty Brandon Eisert for assignment to create a 40-man roster spot.
Santander, 30, has established himself as one of the better power bats in the league in recent years. That included a huge 44-homer tally in 2024. That was his personal best but it was also his sixth straight season in double digits and third straight with at least 28 long balls.
Earlier in his career, he undercut that power production somewhat with more tepid results in terms of batting average and drawing walks, though he has been better at drawing free passes over the past three years. From 2019 to 2021, he hit 49 homers in 240 games but only had a 5.2% walk rate. That led to a .252/.295/.474 batting line and 100 wRC+, indicating his strengths and weaknesses evened out to league average production on the whole.
For the 2022 to 2024 seasons, Santander improved his walk rate by a few ticks, finishing between 8.4% and 8.7% in each of those. That’s roughly league average, with all MLB hitters walking at an 8.2% clip last year. He added those walks without sacrificing his power, putting the ball over the wall 105 times, which made for a productive combination. He had a combined line of .244/.317/.478 for those three campaigns, which translated to a 124 wRC+.
Apart from those home runs, Santander’s contributions have been fairly limited. As mentioned, the on-base abilities have been subpar overall, though fairly decent in the past three years. He’s not a burner on the basepaths, having only once stolen more than two bases in a season. His outfield defense has generally been graded as a bit below league average. He has a career tally of -3 Defensive Runs Saved in over 5,000 outfield innings, with Outs Above Average having him at -13.
Though he’s not the most well-rounded player, he’s a strong fit for the Blue Jays for multiple reasons. The club’s offense was actually around league average last year, though with far better on-base ability than power production. As a team, the Jays slashed .241/.313/.389 for a 101 wRC+, tied for 13th in the league. Their 8.4% walk rate was actually one of the better marks, tied for seventh among the 30 MLB clubs. But they only hit 156 home runs, with just the Marlins, Rays, Nationals and White Sox below them. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was the only guy on the team to reach the 20-homer plateau.
On top of that, Santander is a switch-hitter, with the Jays having been more right-leaning in recent years. Guerrero, Bo Bichette, George Springer and Alejandro Kirk all project for regular roles next year and each is right-handed. Ernie Clement, Davis Schneider, Leo Jiménez and Orelvis Martínez are also righties who could earn spots on the team. The Jays do have a few lefties, with Daulton Varsho, Andrés Giménez, Will Wagner and Joey Loperfido among them, though there are question marks there. Varsho and Giménez have been more glove-first players while Wagner and Loperfido are still lacking in big league experience. Santander’s splits have been fairly close to neutral in his career. He has hit .252/.320/.467 for a 116 wRC+ against lefties, .243/.302/.470 for a 111 wRC+ against righties.
The defensive hit from rostering Santander is also perhaps not a huge deal for Toronto. The Jays, as a team, led the league with 102 DRS last year. Their 26 OAA tally was fourth in the league. Sacrificing a bit of defensive value for the big power bat they need is a sensible tradeoff for them. They also don’t have a regular designated hitter and can perhaps keep Santander in that slot with some regularity. Justin Turner took most of the club’s DH plate appearances in 2024 before being traded to the Mariners at the deadline.
Beyond the on-field fit, the Jays have clearly been looking for a big offseason W for quite some time. The past year-plus has seen them make strong pursuits of marquee players, such as Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Roki Sasaki, Max Fried and Corbin Burnes, but with the Jays coming up just short in all of those.
After missing on Ohtani last winter, the Jays pivoted to modest moves, re-signing Kevin Kiermaier as well as adding Turner, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Yariel Rodríguez. No one in that group got a guarantee larger than $32MM. The 2024 season then went on to be a massive disappointment, with the Jays engineering a midseason selloff and finishing at 74-88. They seemed to come into this winter looking to mollify a disgruntled fan base but the near misses on Soto, Sasaki, Fried and Burnes only appeared to make things worse. Whether Santander is a true star is subjective, though this signing will be Toronto’s biggest since they signed Kevin Gausman three years ago.
One silver lining of the 2024 season falling apart for the Jays was that their midseason selling dipped them below the competitive balance tax, which lowered their penalties for signing a player who rejected a qualifying offer. That is the case here, as the Orioles extended a QO to Santander, which he naturally rejected. Had the Jays paid the tax in 2024, they would have forfeited $1MM of international bonus pool space by signing Santander, in addition to surrendering their second- and fifth-best picks in the draft. By ducking under the tax, the penalty is just $500K of 2026 pool space and only their second-best pick. Since Santander is guaranteed more than $50MM on this deal, the O’s will receive a compensation pick after the first round of this summer’s draft.
Coming into the offseason, MLBTR predicted that Santander could secure a four-year, $80MM pact. He seemed to have plenty of interest, with the Jays connected to him early on. Clubs like the Red Sox, Tigers, Yankees and Angels were also rumored to be interested at various times. Santander and his reps reportedly tried to parlay that interest into a five-year deal and/or a $100MM guarantee in December, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post. But he lingered unsigned into the new year and reportedly had some openness to considering a shorter pact.
In the end, he has gotten his five years, though at a lesser average annual value than he was seeking. The sticker price of $92.5MM over five years leads to an $18.5MM AAV, but the deferrals reduce that by a decent amount. The opt-out gives him a chance at some more future earnings, though the Jays could pick up the option and effectively make it $110MM over six years.
Using the pre-deferral $18.5MM AAV, RosterResource projects the club for a $237MM payroll and $263MM CBT calculation for this year. The club opened with a payroll of $225MM last year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, so they’re already beyond that. President Mark Shapiro previously suggested that he didn’t expect the club’s spending to drastically change compared to last year, perhaps suggesting there’s not much room left in the budget now. Though Scott Mitchell of TSN suggests that signing Pete Alonso is still a possibility for the Jays even after getting Santander, seemingly indicating otherwise. The club also reportedly has some interest in starting pitching upgrades and has been working to bolster the bullpen all winter. The CBT number is already beyond this year’s $261MM second tier, though the club will be a “first-time” payor on account of ducking under last year.
Perhaps the Jays will make some more additions, such as bringing in Alonso. Such a move would force him and Guerrero to share first base and the DH slot, thus pushing Santander into being an everyday outfielder. If that comes to pass, he would surely be in one corner with Springer in the other. Varsho will be the club’s regular center fielder once he’s healthy. Guys like Loperfido, Nathan Lukes, Myles Straw, Jonatan Clase and Alan Roden will either be options for depth roles or bench jobs. If Santander is able to serve as the DH more regularly, that could perhaps open more outfield playing time for those others.
For the clubs that missed on Santander, the outfield market is fairly thinned out. In addition to Santander, guys like Soto, Teoscar Hernández, Michael Conforto and Tyler O’Neill have come off the board. Jurickson Profar now stands alone as the top unsigned option, so perhaps his market will now pick up. Guys like Randal Grichuk, Harrison Bader, Mark Canha and others are also available.
Jon Morosi of MLB Network first reported that Santander and the Jays were in agreement, pending a physical. Ben Nicholson Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet later reported that the physical was complete. Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 first reported the five-year length, the opt-out/club option override, the signing bonus, the $92.5MM guarantee and the possibility to get to $110MM. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that the opt-out is after 2027. Nicholson-Smith reported the frontloaded nature, as well as the approximate $14MM CBT value. Alexander reported that more than $35MM was deferred.
Blue Jays Designate Brandon Eisert For Assignment
The Blue Jays announced that they’ve designated lefty reliever Brandon Eisert for assignment. That opens a spot on the 40-man roster for Anthony Santander, who has officially signed his five-year free agent deal.
Eisert, who turned 27 yesterday, made his major league debut last season. He came out of the bullpen for three appearances, allowing three runs across 6 2/3 innings. He walked four and struck out a pair. The Oregon State product spent the rest of the year with Triple-A Buffalo, where he turned in a 3.86 earned run average through 53 2/3 innings. He fanned an excellent 29.1% of batters faced against a 9.3% walk rate.
That was Eisert’s third consecutive season working mostly in Triple-A. He doesn’t have much else to prove there. Eisert has posted a cumulative 3.83 ERA through 183 1/3 innings. He has missed bats in all three years and owns a career 28.6% strikeout rate at the top minor league level. He pairs that with league average walk and ground-ball numbers.
Despite his solid minor league results, Eisert got only the briefest of looks in the Toronto bullpen. The Jays had the worst relief group in the American League last season. The front office seemingly didn’t expect Eisert’s arsenal to play at the MLB level, though. He doesn’t have prototypical power stuff. His fastball averaged 91.2 MPH in the majors and sat around 90 MPH in Triple-A. He threw the fastball around half the time while mixing in a slider and changeup during his minor league work.
Eisert’s upper minors track record and ability to throw multiple innings out of the bullpen could get him some attention. The Jays have five days to trade him or place him on waivers, which are a 48-hour process. Eisert still has two minor league options, meaning another team that is willing to carry him on the 40-man roster could bounce him between the majors and Triple-A for a while.
Blue Jays Interested In Max Scherzer
There hasn’t been much public buzz about Max Scherzer this winter, apart from a report earlier this month that four unknown clubs were showing interest in the future Hall-of-Famer’s services. The Blue Jays may or may not have been one of those four mystery teams, but Toronto is showing interest in Scherzer now, according to Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith.
The Jays have been linked to dozens of free agents this winter, continuing the unofficial “check in on everyone” strategy that general manager Ross Atkins has broadly used over the last five years, since the team’s rebuilding phase was ended when Hyun-Jin Ryu signed a four-year, $80MM contract. It therefore isn’t surprising that the Blue Jays also have Scherzer on their radar, both because Toronto is looking for rotation help and because Scherzer has some intriguing buy-low potential given his lengthy resume.
2024 was perhaps the least-noteworthy of Scherzer’s 17 MLB seasons, as he pitched a career-low 43 1/3 innings. Scherzer underwent back surgery last offseason and was expected to miss at least a bit of time at the start of the 2024 campaign while recovering, but subsequent issues with nerve irritation in his triceps, shoulder fatigue, and a hamstring strain resulted in what was pretty close to a lost season for both Scherzer and the Rangers as a whole.
At least the nerve problem seems to have been corrected by a mechanical change, as Scherzer relayed to reporters last September, and Scherzer is now over a year removed from his back procedure. While the right-hander has generally been quite durable over his long career, it also wouldn’t be a surprise if the long grind of 2878 big league innings has finally caught up to Scherzer now that he has passed his 40th birthday.
Injuries notwithstanding, Scherzer was still able to post a respectable 3.95 ERA last season. His walk and chase rates were both excellent in his small sample size of 43 1/3 frames, though that great chase rate manifested itself into only a modest 22.6% strikeout rate. Scherzer also had a 3.77 ERA over 152 2/3 innings with the Mets and Rangers in 2023, which could be a better reflection of what might be reasonably expected from a healthy Scherzer at this late stage in his career — a solid mid-rotation starter who can still dial up some of his old magic every once in a while.
Scherzer and his former teammate Justin Verlander have often been linked together this winter as veteran superstars coming off injury-marred seasons, and Verlander (entering his age-42 campaign) inked a one-year, $15MM guarantee with the Giants two weeks ago. With Verlander now off the board, more teams could be looking at Scherzer, even if Toronto is the first club publicly cited as a suitor.
While the Blue Jays signed relievers Jeff Hoffman and Yimi Garcia to multi-year deals this winter, the Jays’ last two offseasons have been defined more by the players the team hasn’t signed rather than the players who actually put pen to paper. Toronto’s high-profile pursuits of Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Roki Sasaki, and several other top-shelf free agents ended with those players all signing elsewhere, creating the impression that the Jays front office can no longer seal the deal with frontline talent.
It hasn’t helped Atkins’ recruiting efforts that the Blue Jays stumbled to a 74-88 record last season, and finished last place in the AL East. The possible departures of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette into free agency next winter add to the uncertainty over the Jays’ long-term viability as contenders, or even if the team still has enough in the tank to make a rebound in 2025. “As currently constructed, the Blue Jays might be a tougher sell for” Scherzer, Nicholson-Smith writes, as even if Scherzer’s market might be somewhat limited by his age and recent injuries, he would surely still prefer to play for a contending team if he has options available.