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Blue Jays Have Reportedly “Taken The Lead” In Yariel Rodriguez Sweepstakes

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After missing out on top free agents Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto earlier this month, the Blue Jays have ramped up activity at the lower levels of the market of late by re-signing center fielder Kevin Kiermaier to a one-year pact and landing utility man Isiah Kiner-Falefa on a two-year deal in recent days. It appears the club isn’t stopping there, as Enrique Rojas of ESPN reported Friday afternoon that the club has “taken the lead” in the sweepstakes for the services of right-hander Yariel Rodriguez, who Rojas adds is “close” to making a decision in free agency. It’s hardly a surprise that the Blue Jays have interest in Rodriguez, as a recent report indicated that Toronto was among several teams with interest in the righty.

Rodriguez, 27 in March, is among the most intriguing free agents available on the market this offseason. The right-hander was granted free agency by MLB back in early November after being released from his deal with Nippon Professional Baseball’s Chunichi Dragons back in October. Rodriguez’s professional career began in Cuba during the 2015-16 season, and he spent six seasons pitching primarily as a starter to solid results in his home country before joining the Dragons ahead of the 2020 campaign. Upon arriving in Japan, Rodriguez was moved to the bullpen and broke out in a big way during the 2022 campaign, where he posted a dominant 1.15 ERA with a 27.5% strikeout rate.

Rodriguez participated in the World Baseball Classic in early 2023 as a member of Team Cuba and began to stretch back out as a starter in that series, throwing 7 1/3 innings across two appearances. After the event, Rodriguez declined to report back to the Dragons and sat out the 2023 season before securing his release after the season. Since then, Rodriguez has hosted workouts for a host of MLB clubs in the Dominican Republic, allowing scouts an opportunity to see the right-hander up close.

Whether Rodriguez will be able to stick in the majors as a starter or not has been a point of division among clubs throughout his free agency, though the Blue Jays reportedly fall into the camp that views him as a starting pitcher alongside teams such as the Pirates and Red Sox. While Rodriguez has also received recent interest from the Reds, Padres, and Yankees, each reportedly prefers the right-hander as a reliever. Due in part to that division on whether his future is in the rotation or the bullpen, Rodriguez’s position as the #28 free agent on our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, where we projected him for a deal worth $32MM over four years, is less concrete than other free agents of a similar caliber.

In spite of the uncertainty involved in Rodriguez’s free agency, the Blue Jays are a solid fit for the right-hander’s services. While Toronto has a full rotation on paper with a stable quartet of Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt, and Yusei Kikuchi, the uncertainty surrounding right-hander Alek Manoah creates a major question mark at the back of the club’s starting staff. Manoah was a finalist for the AL Cy Young award in 2022 with a dominant 2.24 ERA in 196 2/3 innings of work, but his performance fell off a cliff in 2023 as he managed an ERA of just 5.87 in 19 starts for Toronto as he spent much of the summer in the minor leagues.

By adding Rodriguez to the club’s mix, the Blue Jays add additional starting depth to the club’s mix while also giving Manoah significant competition for the fifth starter role entering the season. If Rodriguez were to either struggle in the rotation or simply be pushed out by the re-emergence of Manoah or a strong debut from top prospect Ricky Tiedemann, he could then be utilized to bolster a bullpen that lost Jordan Hicks to free agency last month. Hicks’s departure leaves open a vacancy at the back of Toronto’s bullpen alongside closer Jordan Romano and set-up man Erik Swanson, where Rodriguez would be an excellent fit if he wound up outside of the club’s preferred rotation mix.

Blue Jays Sign Isiah Kiner-Falefa

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The Blue Jays have signed Isiah Kiner-Falefa, per a club announcement. It’s a two-year, $15MM deal, according to FanSided’s Robert Murray (X link), with another $1MM available in incentives. Kiner-Falefa is represented by ALIGND.

Kiner-Falefa won a Gold Glove as the Rangers’ regular third baseman in 2020, but he hasn’t since played much time at the hot corner, since Texas used him primarily at shortstop in 2021 and the Yankees did the same in 2022.  This past season saw New York shift IKF all around the diamond since Anthony Volpe took over as the everyday shortstop, with Kiner-Falefa racking up a lot of playing time in center field (278 1/3 innings), left field (248 innings), back at third base (240 1/3 innings), right field (40 innings), shortstop (eight innings) and a lone inning as a second baseman.  The public defensive metrics were mixed on his outfield work, but Kiner-Falefa graded pretty well as an infielder, particularly in his return to third base.

With Matt Chapman a free agent, it would seem like the Blue Jays could install Kiner-Falefa as their regular third base option for the time being, giving the club at least a glove-first starter if either Chapman signs elsewhere or if a more clear-cut starter can’t be found.  That said, IKF is probably less of a Chapman replacement than he is a replacement for Whit Merrifield, another right-handed hitter who was deployed regularly as a second base and in the outfield.  Kiner-Falefa adds even more versatility since Merrifield played very little third base and no shortstop.

IKF is also a better defensive fit at third base than any of Toronto’s incumbent crop of infielders, such as Cavan Biggio, Davis Schneider, Santiago Espinal, or Ernie Clement.  Biggio is the only left-handed bat in that group, so it stands to reason the Jays might trade one of the righty-swingers now that Kiner-Falefa is on board.  Adding a more experienced Major Leaguer also gives the Blue Jays more flexibility in giving more minor league evaluation time to top prospects Orelvis Martinez or Addison Barger, who should both be in the Show at some point in 2024 and could factor into the infield picture (particularly at third base).

While Kiner-Falefa may work from a depth and glovework perspective, however, he doesn’t represent much or any help to the Blue Jays’ larger need for offense.  Kiner-Falefa hit .242/.306/.340 over 361 plate appearances with the Yankees last season, essentially matching his .261/.314/.346 slash line over 2415 career PA at the big league level.  This translates to an 81 wRC+ — tied for the fourth-lowest total of any player with more than 2000 PA since the start of the 2018 season.

The lack of offense has limited Kiner-Falefa to 3.8 fWAR over his six Major League seasons, despite his defensive contributions.  He rarely strikes out, yet this contact-hitting approach rarely yields hard contact, and he has little power to speak of with only 26 career home runs.

A two-year, $15MM contract seems like a pretty nice score for Kiner-Falefa with this lack of offense in mind, yet there was still quite a bit of interest in the utilityman on the open market.  The Brewers, Dodgers, Marlins, and Yankees were all linked to Kiner-Falefa on the rumor mill, and Toronto’s own interest in IKF was first cited by Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi earlier this month.

Between Kiner-Falefa today and yesterday’s agreement with Kevin Kiermaier, the Blue Jays have sprung into action after a rather quiet offseason caused by the team’s focus on chasing Shohei Ohtani.  The Jays remained at least speculatively linked to a number of other players besides Ohtani, of course, as GM Ross Atkins’ front office routinely checks in on basically every available free agent or trade target as a matter of due diligence.  While Kiner-Falefa and Kiermaier should help preserve the Jays’ excellent defense from 2023, some offensive pop seems necessary, whether at DH or to further bolster the infield or outfield picture.

As per Roster Resource, the Jays’ 2024 payroll projects to be just shy of the $230MM mark with Kiner-Falefa now on the books.  This leaves a bit of space remaining before Toronto hits the $237MM luxury tax threshold, though that isn’t really a barrier considering that the Blue Jays exceeded the tax line (for the first time in franchise history) last season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Blue Jays Re-Sign Kevin Kiermaier To One-Year Deal

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The Blue Jays announced that the club has re-signed center fielder Kevin Kiermaier on a one-year deal Thursday evening. The Equity Baseball client is reportedly guaranteed $10.5MM, while the deal contains additional incentives.

Kiermaier, 34 in April, was a 31st-round pick by the Rays in the 2010 draft and quickly proved to be one of the savvier late-round picks in recent memory. After making his big league debut in a one-game cup of coffee during the 2013 season, Kiermaier stepped into the club’s everyday center field role in early 2014 and remained in that role for nine seasons where he established himself as a generational defender while slashing a respectable .248/.308/.408 during his time with the Rays. He departed the club to join the Blue Jays on a one-year deal last offseason that went very well for both sides. The veteran posted a 104 wRC+ while playing in 129 games, just the third time in his career he eclipsed 120 games in a season.

As a superlative defender in center who bats left-handed and slashed a respectable .260/.321/.431 against right-handed pitching last year, Kiermaier still makes some sense for a Jays club that sports few left-handed bats and had a vacancy in the outfield. That being said, the club has been frequently tied to Cody Bellinger to this point in the offseason and, with a strong center field defender in Daulton Varsho still on the roster, had generally been expected to pursue a more offensively oriented addition to their lineup this winter. That makes the club’s reunion with Kiermaier something of a surprise.

With that said, Kiermaier is certainly a quality player in his own right; his decent offense and strong defense earned him the #31 spot on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, where we projected him for a two-year, $26MM deal. That projection ended up coming in high by a year and more than $15MM. If the Blue Jays evaluated Kiermaier similarly, they may have felt that reuniting with the veteran at a relative discount was valuable enough to outweigh concerns about the club’s overall offensive production in the outfield, which combined to post a 99 wRC+ last year good for just 20th in the majors. Only the Marlins received less production from their outfield unit than Toronto among playoff teams in 2023.

It must also be noted that the return of Kiermaier needn’t necessarily preclude the club from adding Bellinger or another impact bat to the outfield mix. Talented as Varsho is, the 27-year-old is coming off an abysmal season at the plate where he slashed just .220/.285/.389 in 158 games, and even his strongest season with Arizona saw him post a wRC+ of just 107. That sort of production falls short of the typical everyday left fielder, and it would certainly be defensible for the Blue Jays to move Varsho into a part-time role backing up veterans Kiermaier and George Springer if it meant the addition of an impact bat to the club’s lineup. If the club chooses to go that route, the addition of a bat-first player such as Jorge Soler to the outfield mix could still make plenty of sense.

When discussing Bellinger specifically, the 28-year-old’s experience at first base both in 2023 and throughout his career could also help the Blue Jays fit him into their positional mix if they choose to do so. It’s at least reasonable to imagine a scenario where the club adds Bellinger and utilizes him both in the outfield and also at first base, where he could spell Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and allow the club’s franchise first baseman to spend more time at DH. Roster Resource projects the Blue Jays for a payroll of $213MM in 2024 following the addition of Kiermaier, a figure that’s essentially identical to their $214MM payroll last season. With that being said, the club surely has room for further additions given their reported pursuits of pricey superstars such as Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto in free agency as well as Juan Soto via trade.

While that remaining space in the budget could certainly be used to further shore up the outfield, it’s possible the club would prefer to turn its attention toward the infield. The departures of Matt Chapman and Whit Merrifield in free agency leave the Blue Jays without established, surefire starters at either second or third base. While youngster Davis Schneider has shown promise and the likes of Cavan Biggio and Santiago Espinal provide depth at both positions, adding at least one infielder to the mix appears to be a likely top priority for the club going forward this offseason.

In the meantime, the Blue Jays have shored up an area of weakness on the roster by bringing back a four-time Gold Glover at a premium defensive position. Kiermaier’s quality work in 2023 played a major role in Toronto’s 3.8 fWAR in center field tying with Boston for the eight-most production in baseball at the position, and he should provide the club with similar production next season if he can remain healthy headed into his age-34 campaign.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported the Blue Jays and Kiermiaer were nearing agreement on a one-year deal in the $10MM range. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reported that the sides had an agreement on a $10.5MM guarantee with incentives.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Latest On Clubs’ Interest In Yariel Rodriguez

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December 28: ESPN’s Enrique Rojas reports (on X) that Boston, Pittsburgh and Toronto have all shown interest in Rodriguez as a starter. Cincinnati, San Diego and the Yankees prefer the right-hander in a relief role. Rojas indicates that Rodriguez prefers to start, although there’s no indication he has officially ruled out any teams targeting him in a bullpen capacity.

December 27: The Reds and Red Sox are among the teams still showing interest in free agent right-hander Yariel Rodriguez, tweets Francys Romero. Last week, Romero reported that the Pirates, Astros, Blue Jays and Yankees were also in the running.

Cincinnati hasn’t been frequently tied to Rodriguez throughout the offseason. The Reds were among roughly half the league that sent scouts to evaluate the righty’s throwing session in the Dominican Republic on October 10, a few days after he’d been granted his release from the NPB’s Chunichi Dragons. There hasn’t been much to connect the sides since that point, although it’s not especially surprising that Cincinnati is involved on one of free agency’s younger pitchers.

The Reds have made two major league additions to the pitching staff. Swingman Nick Martinez signed for two years and $26MM, while reliever Emilio Pagán inked a two-year, $16MM deal. President of baseball operations Nick Krall indicated that Martinez will compete for a rotation spot but stopped short of calling him a lock for the season-opening five.

Rodriguez falls into a similar category, as there’s some question about whether he’ll stick in an MLB rotation. The 26-year-old worked out of the bullpen with the Dragons in his final NPB season in 2022. He turned in a stellar 1.15 ERA while striking out 27.5% of opponents over 54 2/3 innings. His 8.3% walk percentage was right in line with the MLB average.

Despite the strong results in relief, it’s likely whichever MLB team signs Rodriguez will give him an opportunity to compete for a rotation spot. He had started in Cuba’s top league before his stint in Japan, and he worked out of the rotation for the Cuban national team during last spring’s World Baseball Classic. Clubs that feel Rodriguez has mid-rotation upside could entertain a noteworthy contract. One evaluator with whom MLBTR spoke before the beginning of the offseason suggested Rodriguez could land a guarantee between $30MM and $50MM.

The Reds have a projected rotation of Andrew Abbott, Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft. Left-hander Brandon Williamson and Martinez stand as the top competitors for the #5 job. Aside from Martinez, it’s a generally young group. They’ve all shown promise at the MLB level, but each of Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft battled injuries last season. None of Abbott, Williamson nor Martinez have ever pitched a full season out of an MLB rotation. That’s also true of Rodriguez, of course, but the Reds could view his youth and ability to work multiple innings as a strong fit as they move firmly into win-now mode after their 2022 retool.

Boston has been linked to Rodriguez more frequently throughout the winter. The 6’1″ hurler held a workout in front of Sox’s and Padres’ evaluators last month. Boston is casting a wide net on the rotation front. While they’ve been tied to top-of-the-market hurlers like Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier recently wrote they appeared more focused on the middle tiers of the free agent class.

Blue Jays Interested In Amed Rosario

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The Blue Jays have some level of interest in Amed Rosario, as Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith writes that the veteran infielder is “on the team’s radar,” and that “under the right circumstances” Rosario could be a fit for Toronto’s roster.  These conditionals seem to imply that multi-positional players like Rosario or Isiah Kiner-Falefa (another known player of interest for the Jays) could perhaps be fallback options if the Blue Jays can’t land one of their primary targets for their vacancies at second and third base.

Rosario was one of baseball’s top minor leaguers during his time in the Mets’ farm system, universally seen as a top-10 prospect heading into the 2017 season.  A lack of inconsistency over his first four MLB seasons ultimately made the Mets willing to part ways, though Rosario held enough value that he was still one of the key pieces of the four-player trade package New York sent to Cleveland for Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco in January 2021.

The change of scenery seemed to work out, as Rosario hit .282/.316/.406 with 22 home runs and 31 steals (in 35 attempts) over 1258 plate appearances during the 2021-22 seasons.  Between this above-average (103 wRC+) offensive production and some passable defense, Rosario generated 5.2 fWAR for the Guardians over those two seasons as their regular shortstop.

2023 was much more of a struggle, as Rosario hit only .263/.305/.378 over 545 total PA with the Guardians and Dodgers.  A deadline trade to Los Angeles didn’t get Rosario’s bat on track, though his new role as a second baseman showed some promising results in a small sample size.  Rosario had +3 Defensive Runs Saved and a +18.2 UZR/150 over 190 innings at second base in L.A., which marked the first time he had played the position in his big league career.

Public defensive metrics had generally been down on Rosario’s shortstop glovework throughout his career, and last season represented a nadir of -16 DRS, -4.4 UZR/150, and -14 Outs Above Average.  It was a disappointing setback after Rosario had very impressive DRS and UZR/150 numbers as a shortstop in 2022, and it could hint that Rosario’s defensive future is ultimately at the keystone.  Rosario has also gotten some limited playing time in left and center field, so he could be more of a utility player even if he isn’t a defensive standout as an outfielder.

MLBTR ranked Rosario 39th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, projecting a two-year, $18MM deal even in the wake of his lackluster 2023 season.  The combination of Rosario’s age (28), his past top-prospect pedigree, and the overall thin middle infield market factored into the prediction of a multi-year contract, though it wouldn’t be surprising to see him land just a one-year “prove it” type of contract.  Such a deal might appeal to Rosario and his reps at Octagon as well, as a bounce-back in 2024 could then line Rosario up for a more lucrative multi-year contract as a free agent next winter.

In Toronto, Rosario would essentially be a replacement for Whit Merrifield — a right-handed hitter mostly slotted for second base but who could also fill in for Daulton Varsho or Kevin Kiermaier in left or center field when a southpaw starter is on the mound.  Rosario also brings a lot of speed and good contact numbers, as evidenced by a solid 22.1% strikeout rate.

However, as Nicholson-Smith’s report hinted, there are some reasons why the Blue Jays might not necessarily have Rosario at the top of their wishlist.  His subpar numbers in 2023 don’t represent much of an upgrade for a Toronto team whose offense struggled last year, and it can be argued that the Jays already have comparable internal options at second base.  The group of Cavan Biggio, Davis Schneider, Santiago Espinal, and Ernie Clement are still on the roster, and prospects Orelvis Martinez, Addison Barger, or Leo Jimenez could all make their MLB debuts perhaps rather early in the 2024 campaign.  Most players in this group are better suited for second base than third base, so signing Rosario for at least a semi-regular keystone role would create a bit of a logjam for the Jays.

The Blue Jays’ pursuit of Shohei Ohtani dominated the headlines and seemingly much of the team’s attention for the first portion of the offseason, but the Jays made their first big move of the winter just yesterday as news broke of the club’s reunion with Kiermaier on a one-year deal.  Beyond Rosario and Kiner-Falefa, such infielders as Jonathan India, Jake Cronenworth, Justin Turner, Rhys Hoskins, and Isaac Paredes have been linked to the Blue Jays on the rumor mill, plus re-signing third baseman Matt Chapman remains a possibility.  With Kiermaier’s return helping solidify the outfield picture, Toronto’s focus may now shift to addressing their needs in the infield and at DH.

Astros, Blue Jays, Pirates, Yankees Continue To Be Interested In Yariel Rodriguez

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Yariel Rodriguez’s market continues to percolate, as the Astros, Blue Jays, Pirates, and Yankees “are still in the bidding for” the right-hander’s services, according to reporter Francys Romero (X link) earlier this week.  Romero’s post came prior to Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s deal with the Dodgers, as Romero suggested that Rodriguez’s suitors were first waiting for Yamamoto to sign.

This would seemingly refer to the Yankees and Blue Jays in particular, who were known to be in the running for Yamamoto’s services.  Toronto was a bit more on the periphery of the hunt while the Yankees were seemingly one of three or four finalists, joining the Mets and Giants in falling short of the Dodgers in the bidding for the Japanese ace.  Presumably neither the Yankees or Jays would’ve been in on Rodriguez if they had signed Yamamoto, so the presence of two big spenders still in the market is good news for Rodriguez and his reps at WME Baseball.

It should be noted that Romero didn’t state that these four teams were finalists for Rodriguez, or that any other known suitors were out of the running.  The Astros, Jays, Pirates, and Yankees were all listed among the 10 interested teams in Romero’s initial report about Rodriguez in early November, and that group (which also included the Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Phillies, Rangers, and White Sox) has grown to include the Rays, Red Sox, and Padres in subsequent reports.

Rodriguez is something of a wild card in the free agent pitching market, given that he has spent most of his career pitching in Cuba, he worked mostly out of the bullpen with the Chunichi Dragons of Nippon Professional Baseball from 2020-22, and he didn’t pitch at all in 2023 (apart from the World Baseball Classic) since he sat out the NPB season trying to get released from his contract with the Dragons.  However, Rodriguez doesn’t turn 27 until March, and there is enough intrigue in his upside as a starter that MLBTR ranked him 28th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and projected him for a four-year, $32MM contract.

This price point would put Rodriguez in range for even lower-payroll teams, even if such clubs are taking more of a risk in such a financial commitment for a pitcher with no Major League track record.  For the Pirates specifically, $32MM for Rodriguez would rank as one of the eight most expensive contracts in the franchise’s history, so it would seem rather aggressive for a Bucs team just coming out of a rebuild to suddenly splurge on an unproven arm.  That said, the Pirates are known to be looking for more rotation help, and they could have enough faith in Rodriguez’s upside that they could view something like a $32MM investment as a potential bargain.

International signings have been the backbone of the Astros’ run of success over the last decade, in the form of inexpensive deals for future stars like Jose Altuve or Framber Valdez, or Houston’s more significant investment in a five-year, $47.5MM deal for Yuli Gurriel when he came to the big leagues from Cuba during the 2016 season.  Current Astros general manger Dana Brown naturally wasn’t in change of the front office back in 2016, though he did suggest that his team was looking to add “a legit third starter or better” this offseason, while acknowledging that the Astros were working with a somewhat limited amount of spending space.  Roster Resource projects Houston’s 2024 payroll to sit almost exactly at the $237MM luxury tax threshold, which is notable since the Astros have only once (in 2020) exceeded the tax line in their history.

Signing Rodriguez would be an interesting fallback position from Yamamoto for either New York or Toronto.  Rodriguez’s lack of track record wouldn’t necessarily solidify a rotation that already has a couple of injury-related question marks in Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodon, as well as the unproven Clarke Schmidt as the projected fourth starter.  However, the Yankees might view Rodriguez as an upside play as a de facto fifth starter, or perhaps even a bullpen addition if he doesn’t work out as a starter.

The same could be said about Rodriguez’s possible usage on the Blue Jays’ staff, even if Toronto’s rotation is a little more defined.  Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, and Yusei Kikuchi project as the top four, with Alek Manoah penciled in as the fifth starter for now despite all of the uncertainty in the wake of Manoah’s rough 2023 season.  Adding Rodriguez would give the Blue Jays more depth if Manoah can’t bounce back, or perhaps the Jays would then feel more emboldened to trade Manoah or even Kikuchi to address other needs in the lineup.

Blue Jays Reportedly Sign Paolo Espino

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The Blue Jays and right-hander Paolo Espino are in agreement on a contract, according to a report from Jon Heyman of the New York Post. There are no details on the specifics of the deal, though it’s presumably a minor league pact with an invite to major league Spring Training.

Espino, 37 next month, started his professional career all the way back in 2006 when he was drafted by Cleveland in the 10th round of that year’s draft. He first broke into the big leagues more than a decade later with a 6.00 ERA in 24 innings of work split between the Brewers and Rangers during the 2017 season. Espino was then relegated to the minors for the next two seasons before eventually resurfacing with the Nationals during the 2020 season. Though he pitched just six innings for the club during the shortened season, the performance went reasonably well as he posted a 4.50 ERA and 4.02 FIP with seven strikeouts across two appearances.

That cup of coffee with the Nationals in 2020 kicked off a four-year stint in D.C. that saw Espino relied upon as a swingman for the rebuilding club. Espino appeared in 77 games for the Nationals between 2021 and 2022, drawing 38 starts and pitching 223 innings during that time. While his numbers, while unimpressive, were more or less that which would be expected of a club’s #5 or #6 starter: a 4.56 ERA (88 ERA+) and a 4.70 FIP despite a meager 19.5% strikeout rate thanks in large part to a walk rate of just 5.2%.

Things took a turn for the worse for Espino in 2023. The veteran righty pitched just four innings for the big league club this past season, and was lit up for 11 runs on 14 hits and three walks while striking out just three in that limited time on the mound. Though Espino’s 13 starts at the Triple-A level went better as he posted a 4.33 ERA across 60 1/3 innings of work, Espino’s season came to an end in July when the righty was placed on the injured list due to a flexor strain. The end of his time in the Nationals organization came shortly thereafter, as the club placed Espino on release waivers in early August.

Since then, Espino has made nine starts in the Dominican Winter League, pitching to a strong 2.40 ERA in 48 2/3 innings of work while striking out 25.8% of batters faced. That strong performance clearly caught the attention of the Blue Jays, who decided to take a chance on Espino as a depth option headed into the 2024 season. The club appears set in the rotation with a quintet of Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Yusei Kikuchi, Chris Bassitt, and Alek Manoah penciled in while the club prepares for the arrival of top prospect Ricky Tiedemann, but Espino could act as a depth option alongside the likes of Bowden Francis and Wes Parsons or perhaps provide competition for Mitch White as the club’s long relief option out of the bullpen.

Padres Discussed Jake Cronenworth Trade With Blue Jays

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The Padres had talks with the Blue Jays about a possible trade involving Jake Cronenworth, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports.  These discussions notably took place prior to the trade that saw the Padres move Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to the Yankeees, and Rosenthal now suggests that Cronenworth might not be moved since San Diego would be moving another left-handed hitter from a lineup that now tilts rather heavily to the right side.

Rosenthal’s suggestion notwithstanding, the Padres’ payroll balance might be a bigger factor than lineup balance in gauging a Cronenworth trade.  Cost-cutting has been the central theme of the Friars’ offseason, as the team is looking to reset its luxury tax status and perhaps drop the payroll under $200MM, from an approximate $255MM figure in 2023.  This was the chief reasoning behind the Soto trade, as well as Grisham’s inclusion in the deal to move some extra salary off the books.  The Padres also dealt Matt Carpenter to the Braves in another salary dump of a move, while free agent pitchers Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and Nick Martinez have all signed elsewhere (and Blake Snell and Josh Hader also doesn’t seem likely to be re-signed).

With this focus in mind, it is hard to imagine that the Padres wouldn’t also be eager to get Cronenworth’s contract off the books.  The infielder is still owed $78MM over the course of a seven-year extension that officially begins with the 2024 season, and that deal now looks like a front office misfire in the wake of Cronenworth’s disappointing 2023 campaign.  While Cronenworth hit a solid .256/.338/.431 over 1519 plate appearances for San Diego from 2020-22, he stumbled to a .229/.312/.378 slash line in 522 PA last season and suffered a right wrist fracture that ended his year in late August.

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently looked at the obvious difficulties San Diego would face in trying to trade Cronenworth at this low point in his value, and it seems very unlikely the Padres would be able to swing a deal unless they either ate a big chunk of Cronenworth’s deal, or took on another undesirable contract in return.  As such, it might benefit the Friars to just hang onto Cronenworth and hope that he can rebound next season — either to boost his trade value or simply to reclaim his spot as a building block in the team’s future.

From the Blue Jays’ perspective, acquiring Cronenworth makes sense given the club’s needs at second base and third base.  The versatile infielder has primarily played at the keystone at the MLB level, though he could chip in at third base in a pinch, and also act as a backup for Toronto at shortstop and first base, to boot.  The Jays are also short on left-handed hitters, though naturally the bigger question would be whether Cronenworth would provide much of a lineup upgrade given his 2023 struggles.

It is fair to assume that Toronto’s inquiries didn’t involve the Jays picking up even the majority of Cronenworth’s deal, unless perhaps the interest was also tied into the Blue Jays’ known interest in Soto.  This is purely speculative on my part, but the Jays might’ve considered the idea of taking on the bulk of Cronenworth’s contract in addition to Soto, as a way of reducing the prospect cost that would’ve gone back to San Diego in return.  This tactic would’ve added quite of bit of extra money to Toronto’s payroll, yet the Jays might’ve considered it worthwhile to land Soto even for a year, and without dealing from its minor league ranks.  If Cronenworth had then bounced back in a Jays uniform, that would’ve been an additional long-term bonus.

While Grisham was unloaded as part of the actual Soto trade with the Yankees, the Padres prioritized talent acquisition rather than pure salary offload in the eventual deal, upgrading their rotation with pitchers who can help now (i.e. Michael King) and in the future.  Given how the Padres still plan to compete in 2024 rather than embark on a pure fire sale, watering down Soto’s trade value by attaching a more cumbersome contract like Cronenworth’s extension to the package wouldn’t have been the wiser long-term play.

Eight Teams Combine For Record $209.8MM In Luxury Tax Bills

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Major League Baseball has finalized the luxury tax calculations for the 2023 season, and the eight teams over the Competitive Balance Tax threshold will combine for a total bill of $209.8MM, Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports.  Both the total number of tax-paying teams and the total sum are new records, surpassing the previous highs of six teams (in 2016 and 2022) and $78.5MM (in 2022).

Here is what each of the eight teams owes for surpassing at least the $233MM base CBT threshold….

  • Mets: $100,781,932
  • Padres: $39.7MM
  • Yankees: $32.4MM
  • Dodgers: $19.4MM
  • Phillies: $6.98MM
  • Blue Jays: $5.5MM
  • Braves: $3.2MM
  • Rangers: $1.8MM

As a reminder of how the luxury tax operates, the CBT figures are determined by the average annual value of salaries for players on the 40-man roster.  A player earning $20MM over two seasons, for example, has a CBT number of $10MM, even if the player might earn $8MM in the first year of the contract and $12MM in the second year.  Deferred money in a contract can reduce a luxury tax number to some extent — most famously, Shohei Ohtani’s $700MM deal with the Dodgers contains $680MM in deferred money, so his CBT hit will be roughly $46MM per season instead of $70MM.

A team is considered a “first-time payor” if they haven’t spent above the CBT threshold in the previous season.  A first-time payor would owe a 20% surcharge on any dollar spent between $233MM and $253MM, 32% of anything between $253MM and $273MM, 62.5% on anything between $273MM and $293MM, and then 80% of overages for anything beyond $293MM.  These percentages rise if a team is a tax payor for two consecutive seasons, and then even further if a team exceeds the CBT line in three or more consecutive seasons.  This year’s CBT class featured three first-time payors (Texas, Atlanta, Toronto), three two-time payors (Philadelphia, both New York teams) and two three-time payors (San Diego, Los Angeles).

The $293MM threshold was instituted in the last Collective Bargaining Agreement as a fourth penalty tier, and it is unofficially known as the “Steve Cohen Tax” in a reference to the Mets owner’s penchant for big spending.  Even though New York has only topped the CBT whatsoever in 2022 and 2023, it isn’t surprising that Cohen’s team set new standards for tax payouts.  The Mets’ tax payroll of $374.7MM and approximate $100.78MM tax bill far exceeded the 2015 Dodgers’ previous records of $291.1MM and $43.6MM, respectively.

This bill would’ve been even higher if the Mets hadn’t unexpectedly struggled, and unloaded some expensive contracts at the trade deadline in order to save some money and reload with an eye towards probably 2025 as a more clear-cut return to contention.  Blum also notes that the Mets received a $2,126,471 tax credit related to a CBA provision, which slightly reduced their bill further.

As always, the actual financial cost of exceeding the tax is perhaps the least-important part of the penalties, especially for teams who barely across the first threshold.  Teams who exceed the CBT line would face further punishment in regards to free agents who reject qualifying offers, whether that translates to additional compensation required to sign a QO-rejecting player, or lesser compensation received if a team’s own qualified free agent signs elsewhere.  For instance, signing Ohtani cost the Dodgers not just $700MM, but also $1MM in international draft pool money and their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2024 draft.  For a team like the Padres, should Blake Snell or Josh Hader sign elsewhere, San Diego’s compensatory draft selection wouldn’t come until after the fourth round of the 2024 draft.

Spending on talent is more often than not a recipe for success on the field, though obviously hardly a guarantee.  The Mets had a losing record, and the Padres and Yankees each squeaked over the .500 mark with 82-80 records.  The other five tax payors reached the playoffs, though the Phillies and the World Series champion Rangers were the only members of that group of five to win at least one postseason series.

The $209.8MM in tax revenues will be split up in three ways by the league.  The first $3.5MM is devoted to funding player benefits, $103.15MM will go towards funding individual player retirement accounts, and the other $103.15MM will be put into a supplemental commissioner’s discretionary fund and distributed amongst revenue-sharing recipient teams who have grown their (non-media) local revenue over a pre-determined number of years.

Blue Jays Have Some Interest In Rhys Hoskins, Justin Turner

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The Blue Jays have some level of interest in Rhys Hoskins and Justin Turner as they evaluate their options at designated hitter, reports Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. That’s part of a wide net being cast by the front office, as Nicholson-Smith reiterates previously reported ties to J.D. Martinez, Joc Pederson and Joey Votto as well.

Toronto has a vacancy at DH with Brandon Belt returning to the open market. Bringing in a left-handed bat to complement a lineup led by Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer and Danny Jansen would be ideal, but the interest in Martinez suggests they’re not limiting themselves solely to lefty hitters. GM Ross Atkins has alluded to the potential for multiple lineup additions, after all. The Jays could add a right-handed DH while bringing in a lefty bat in the outfield.

Hoskins lost the 2023 season after tearing the ACL in his left knee during Spring Training. He’d likely have made it back as a DH or pinch-hitting option had the Phillies made the World Series. While that didn’t happen, the 30-year-old (31 in March) projects as one of the better offensive players on the market. Hoskins has been a consistent middle-of-the-order presence throughout his career, compiling a .242/.353/.492 line. He has hit between 27 and 34 home runs in each of the four full seasons he’s played while running better than average walk rates on an annual basis.

Turner has been a consistently strong lineup presence as well. He hasn’t had a below-average offensive season since his 2014 breakout with the Dodgers. At age 39, he’s no longer suited for 140+ starts at third base. Yet Turner could serve as a primary DH while rotating in at the hot corner, where the Jays have a question with Matt Chapman still in free agency. Turner is still more than capable of handling a primary DH role. He’s coming off an impressive .276/.345/.455, 23-homer showing for the Red Sox.

It doesn’t seem either player is a priority target for the Toronto front office. Nicholson-Smith suggests the Jays could wait out the market for another few weeks to determine whether anyone in a broad group of hitters of interest presents strong value later in the offseason.

Hoskins has also drawn reported interest from the Cubs, Mariners and Nationals. Turner has been on the radar of the incumbent Red Sox, Mets and Diamondbacks. MLBTR predicted Hoskins to land a two-year, $36MM guarantee that allows him to opt out after next season, although a standard one-year pillow contract is also possible. Turner seems likelier to sign for one year given his age, but he could also command a salary in the $16-18MM range.

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