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AL East Notes: Belt, Mountcastle, Adam, Arozarena

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Blue Jays slugger Brandon Belt has been on the shelf for the past two weeks with low back spasms, but could be nearing a return per MLB.com. The veteran has joined the club on their current road trip and has been progressing well. Toronto intends to “simulate game situations” today as a final step before his impending activation from the injured list.

It’s welcome news for the Blue Jays, as Belt’s 134 wRC+ this year is only bested by small-sample size efforts by Davis Schneider and Ernie Clement. In 382 trips to the plate this season, Belt has slashed a solid .251/.369/.470 in his shift to a part time role with Toronto. That production comes in spite of a career-high 35.1% strikeout rate, though his whiffs are offset somewhat by a 15.7% walk rate that’s excellent even by Belt’s own lofty standards. The return of Belt figures to push utility player Cavan Biggio back to the bench and could provide a spark for the Blue Jays as they find themselves in the second AL Wild Card spot with just seven games left in the regular season, one game up on the Astros and 1.5 games ahead of the Mariners.

More from around the AL East…

  • Orioles manager Brandon Hyde indicated to reporters (including MASN’s Roch Kubatko) yesterday that first baseman Ryan Mountcastle is progressing well in his rehab from a shoulder injury that sidelined him just over a week ago. Mountcastle hasn’t returned to hitting yet but stood in the batter’s box to track pitches during injured closer Felix Bautista’s most recent bullpen session. Though Bautista’s timetable for return still appears to be up in the air, Mountcastle is expected to be ready to come off the injured list in time for Wednesday’s game against the Nationals. Mountcastle is hitting a respectable .269/.327/.453 in 459 trips to the plate this season and has been covered for by Ryan O’Hearn at first base in recent days.
  • Rays reliever Jason Adam was placed on the 15-day injured list due to a strained oblique yesterday, just one day after returning from a three-week IL stint for a separate oblique strain. While Adam’s injury will sideline him into the postseason, the 31-year-old is nonetheless hopeful that he’ll be able to return this season if the Rays make a deep postseason run, as he told reporters (including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times) that he wants to return despite being “more sore this time than last time.” Adam’s 2023 regular season comes to a close with a 2.98 ERA, 4.00 FIP and 31.1% strikeout rate over 56 appearances.
  • Sticking with the Rays, outfielder Randy Arozarena is still day-to-day with tightness in his right quad. Despite manager Kevin Cash telling reporters (including MLB.com) that the 28-year-old could have been available off the bench during yesterday’s game against the Blue Jays, he didn’t make an appearance. Still, Arozarena told reporters through an interpreter that he was feeling “pretty good” and hoping to return in the near future. Arozarena’s return figures to provide a boost to the Rays lineup, as the first-time All Star has slashed .255/.363/.427 in 640 trips to the plate this year while acting as the club’s regular left fielder.

Blue Jays Outright Mason McCoy

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The Blue Jays have sent infielder Mason McCoy outright to Triple-A Buffalo, according to the transaction log at MLB.com. Toronto designated him for assignment on Wednesday.

McCoy, 28, made his big league debut this year. A former sixth-round draftee of the Orioles, he spent time in the Baltimore and Seattle farm systems. The Mariners dealt him to Toronto for Trent Thornton at the end of July. The Jays selected his contract a month later. Toronto plugged McCoy into six games, mostly as a late-game defensive substitute. He batted once, striking out against José Ferrer in his lone MLB at-bat to date.

Since this is the first outright of his career, McCoy doesn’t have the ability to elect free agency. He’ll remain in the organization as non-roster depth for a few weeks but will qualify for minor league free agency this offseason if the Jays don’t add him back to the 40-man. The righty-hitting defensive specialist owns a .221/.321/.372 line in 487 Triple-A plate appearances this season.

Blue Jays Select Cam Eden, Designate Mason McCoy For Assignment

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The Blue Jays announced that they have selected the contract of outfielder Cam Eden. Infielder Ernie Clement has been optioned in a corresponding active roster move with infielder Mason McCoy designated for assignment to open a 40-man spot.

Eden, 25, was a sixth-round selection of the Jays back in 2019 and has been working his way up the minor league ladder since then. He’s spent all of this year in Triple-A, hitting .257/.354/.333 in 460 plate appearances. That only amounts to a wRC+ of 81 but the Jays are likely interested in Eden as a speed-and-defense option off the bench, as he has stolen 53 bases in 57 attempts this year. He’s lined up at all three outfield spots but primarily in center field.

At the end of August, the Jays recalled Clement and selected McCoy as shortstop Bo Bichette went on the injured list with a quad strain. Bichette returned a couple of weeks ago, which bumped McCoy back to the minors and Clement to the bench. With Bichette back in the lineup on a regular basis and Santiago Espinal able to serve as a backup infielder, it seems the Jays decided Clement’s spot would be better utilized by having Eden on hand for his wheels.

As mentioned, the 28-year-old McCoy was brought up to cover for Bichette’s injury. He’s considered a glove-first infielder and was put into six games by the Jays but only was allowed one plate appearance, in which he struck out. He was acquired from the Mariners in a July trade that sent right-hander Trent Thornton the other way. In between the two organizations, McCoy has hit .221/.321/.372 in the minors this year for a wRC+ of 69 while playing second base, third base, shortstop and even a bit of left field.

The Jays will place him on waivers in the coming days. He still has a full slate of options and just a few days of service time, meaning he could be of interest for a club looking for some versatile depth, though he wouldn’t be postseason eligible on any club that puts in a claim since it’s after September 1. If he clears waivers, he will stick with the Jays as non-roster depth but would qualify for minor league free agency at season’s end.

AL East Notes: Verdugo, Sale, Misiewicz, Hamilton, Mountcastle, Cimber

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Alex Verdugo’s name surfaced in trade rumors around the deadline, with at least one unknown AL team reportedly having interest in the Red Sox outfielder.  WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports that the Yankees and Astros had some talks with the Sox about Verdugo, but naturally no deal was completed.  The Astros instead focused on adding pitching (Justin Verlander and Kendall Graveman) at the deadline but have gotten a lineup boost from Michael Brantley’s return from the injured list, while the Yankees only made a couple of lower-level bullpen additions.  While it has been an inconsistent season for Verdugo, New York’s decision to not add any batting help backfired, as the near team-wide hitting slump in August sunk the Yankees’ playoff chances.

Boston’s deadline strategy over the last two seasons has been the subject of criticism, and undoubtedly factored into the team’s decision to fire chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom earlier this week.  With the Red Sox on the outskirts of the wild card race in both seasons, Bloom didn’t pursue a clear selling-or-buying direction in either year, opting for a more cautious approach rather than going all in on contending or moving any high-profile names.

Most surprisingly, Bradford also reported that Bloom turned down an unknown club’s offer to acquire Chris Sale and all of the remaining money on Sale’s contract at the 2022 deadline.  “The Red Sox wanted better players than were offered and no deal was done,” Bradford writes, yet an argument can certainly be made that getting Sale’s salary off the books would’ve represented enough of a win for the Sox that the player return might have been a secondary concern.  Sale is making $27.5MM this season and in 2024, with a $20MM club option for 2025 that looks very unlikely to be exercised given how Sale has struggled with injuries over the last few seasons.

Here’s more from around the AL East…

  • The Yankees placed left-hander Anthony Misiewicz on the seven-day concussion IL today while reinstating righty Ian Hamilton from the 15-day IL.  Misiewicz was carted off the field yesterday after being struck in the head with a Ji Hwan Bae line drive, but manager Aaron Boone told the YES Network today that Misiewicz was released from hospital and “all things considered, I think he’s doing pretty well.”  More will be known once Misiewicz undergoes further testing, and while there is no timetable for concussion-related symptoms, it would seem like Misiewicz’s season might be over.  The southpaw has a 9.00 ERA over 11 total innings with the Diamondbacks, Tigers, and Yankees this season, and Friday’s game marked Misiewicz’s third game in the pinstripes since being claimed off waivers from Detroit back in July.  Hamilton returns after a minimal 15-day absence due to a groin strain.
  • Ryan Mountcastle isn’t in the Orioles’ lineup today, and hasn’t played since leaving Wednesday’s game due to left shoulder discomfort.  Manager Brandon Hyde told MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko and other reporters that Mountcastle was feeling “just okay” when trying to take some swings yesterday, and was hopeful Mountcastle might be available to pinch-hit in today’s game.
  • Blue Jays reliever Adam Cimber will start a Triple-A rehab assignment today, manager John Schneider told The Athletic’s Kaitlyn McGrath and other reporters.  A pair of shoulder-related injuries have limited Cimber to 20 2/3 innings this season, and he hasn’t pitched due to June 18 due to an impingement in his right shoulder.  This lengthy stint on the 60-day IL means that Cimber will need a few rehab games to ramp up, but he should be able to return to the Jays’ bullpen before the season is through.  After posting a 2.53 ERA over 142 1/3 innings with the Marlins and Blue Jays in 2021, Cimber has only a 7.40 ERA this year, though his shoulder issues have likely contributed to those struggles.

Latest On Alek Manoah

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Blue Jays right-hander Alek Manoah has twice been optioned down to the minors this season, the most recent coming on August 11, over a month ago. However, Manoah hasn’t pitched in an official capacity in that past month, with various reports providing conflicting details about what exactly has been going on in that time.

Back on August 22, not too long after Manoah was optioned, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reported that Manoah had stayed in Toronto as opposed to reporting to Triple-A Buffalo, with the team’s blessing. “We’re just trying to work through the right time to get him back rolling again,” manager John Schneider said. “So nothing really to report.” When asked who made that decision, Schneider replied “It’s kind of both of us working through it to figure out what’s just best for him to get back and be productive,” the manager said. “So yeah, a joint thing and just taking it day by day.”

The Jays have a five-man rotation of Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, Yusei Kikuchi and Hyun Jin Ryu. On paper, Manoah could have been the sixth starter and been back up with the club in the event of an injury to those other five. But even in that report last month, Schneider seemed reluctant to firmly state that Manoah would be first in line for such a role.

A few days after that, Nicholson-Smith reported that Manoah had recently undergone a battery of medical tests, but nothing serious was found. He didn’t report to Buffalo right away in case a stint on the injured list was required, but once his health was confirmed, he was expected to report to Buffalo at that time to start building back up to game readiness.

On September 5, Nicholson-Smith relayed that Manoah had been placed on the temporarily inactive list by the Bisons, adding that Manoah was with the club but they wanted to utilize his roster spot as he built back up. But earlier this week, another report from Nicholson-Smith relayed that it was unlikely Manoah would pitch in another game this season, prioritizing rest and recovery for potential long-term benefits.

That report was addressed by Ben Wagner, radio play-by-play broadcaster of the Blue Jays and formerly with the Bisons. He appeared on the Blair and Barker show on Sportsnet this week, as relayed by Andrew Stoeten of The Batflip. “It’s my understanding that Alek Manoah hasn’t even pitched, even in a side session or a bullpen, since he’s been optioned back,” Wagner said. “And there was a lot going on between leadership of the Toronto Blue Jays, the people around Alek Manoah, about the decision to even option him back, and where he would go when he was optioned back.”

There has been no official statement on the matter from Manoah or his representatives, nor from the Jays. Schneider addressed the issue today on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM. “At the current time, he feels like he’s not ready to compete,” Schneider said. “But we’ve been working through every decision with him together as a group and respecting his requests along the way.”

Given the conflicting nature of these reports, it’s difficult to draw meaningful conclusions. If it’s true that Manoah and his reps aren’t happy about the demotions, it’s possible there’s a financial element at play. He came into this year with his service time at one year and 130 days, meaning he would have finished this season at 2.130 if he had been in the big leagues the whole time. Looking at recent Super Two cutoffs, Manoah would have had a decent chance at getting Super Two status and getting to go through arbitration four times instead of the standard three, thus greatly increasing his earning power.

Having been optioned multiple times this year, that will no longer be the case, but it would be hard to make the argument that the Jays were motivated by manipulating his service time in order to achieve that outcome. Manoah was allowed to make 19 starts this year and posted an earned run average of 5.87. His 19% strikeout rate, 14.2% walk rate and 37.7% ground ball rate are all well below league averages. Among pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched this year, Manoah’s ERA is worse than all but 11 of them. Adam Wainwright is the only hurler with a worse strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Ryu began the season on the injured list, recovering from last year’s Tommy John surgery. As he neared his return and Manoah’s poor performance continued, Manoah was clearly the worst option of the group that the club had on hand. Each of Gausman, Berríos, Bassitt, Kikuchi and Ryu currently have an ERA of 3.83 or lower. With the Jays firmly in the playoff race, currently tied for the last Wild Card spot in the American League, optioning Manoah was perfectly defensible in terms of just putting the best team on the field in the name of competition.

Regardless of the feelings about how things have played out, it’s a less than ideal situation for the club, as they have been operating without an obvious sixth starter for the past month. Their five starters have stayed healthy all year apart from Ryu’s rehab time earlier in the season and it hasn’t been an issue, though that could have easily played out another way.

There’s also the long-term to consider, as Manoah is still under club control for another four seasons beyond this one. Ryu is an impending free agent but the other four starters are all under contract for next season. Pencilling Manoah into the fifth spot would have been a nice plan for the club but they may have less confidence about that now, strictly due to his performance but also perhaps due to the other factors. Keegan Matheson of MLB.com appeared on TSN OverDrive 1050 today, saying that “the relationship does not appear to be in a good place right now,” before highlighting that the Jays might have to think about adding starting pitching in the offseason if they don’t think they can rely on Manoah as their fifth starter next year.

Perhaps more information will come to light over time, but there’s a lot of uncertainty around the situation for now. Regardless of how it plays out going forward, it has been a shocking season for Manoah that no one could have predicted. He posted a 2.24 ERA in his 31 starts last year, finishing third in American League Cy Young voting behind Justin Verlander and Dylan Cease. But his performance has dipped to the point that he was one of the least effective pitchers in baseball this year and is now perhaps one of the least predictable players going forward.

Injury Notes: Belt, Candelario, Lee, Reid-Foley

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The Blue Jays placed Brandon Belt on the 10-day injured list this afternoon. He’s dealing with lumbar spine muscle spasms. Outfielder Nathan Lukes is up from Triple-A Buffalo to take the roster spot.

Toronto didn’t provide a timetable for Belt’s return. There are just under three weeks to go in the regular season and the Jays are on the edge of the playoff race. They go into the second game of this week’s series against the Rangers in possession of the American League’s second Wild Card spot, half a game above Texas and one game better than the Mariners.

Belt has had a strong first season in Toronto. Signed to a $9MM free agent deal, the veteran first baseman is hitting .251/.369/.470 with 16 homers across 382 plate appearances. The Jays have used him a platoon capacity, keeping him to just 31 at-bats versus same-handed pitching. His injury could leave more at-bats for lefty-swinging rookie Spencer Horwitz, who is in the lineup tonight against Max Scherzer.

In other injury news:

  • The Cubs plan to place Jeimer Candelario on the 10-day injured list with a back issue, tweets Jesse Rogers of ESPN. Rookie outfielder Alexander Canario will be recalled to take the roster spot. Candelario suffered the injury on Sunday, so the placement will likely be backdated by one day. He’ll first be eligible to return a week from Thursday. Acquired from the Nationals at the deadline, Candelario is hitting .237/.324/.449 in 36 games during his second stint as a Cub. He’d hit well in August before falling into a slump over the past couple weeks.
  • The Braves have placed Dylan Lee on the 15-day injured list with shoulder inflammation, the club announced. He had originally been optioned to Triple-A Gwinnett, but that demotion was voided thanks to the injury. Lee will continue to be paid at the MLB rate. Unfortunately, that’ll come at the cost of the rest of his season. Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes that the Braves will shut the southpaw down until 2024. Lee was out from mid-June until the start of September because of shoulder soreness. He returned to make just four appearances before the shoulder sent him back to the IL. His season wraps up with 23 2/3 innings of 4.18 ERA ball. Atlanta has A.J. Minter and Brad Hand as their top left-handed relief duo going into the playoffs.
  • Mets reliever Sean Reid-Foley suffered a lat strain, tweets Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. That’ll certainly end his season. New York recalled Reed Garrett to take Reid-Foley’s place on the active roster. It’s a frustrating development for the 28-year-old Reid-Foley, who was limited to eight appearances since the club selected his contract at the end of August. He’d been out since last May working back from a Tommy John procedure. Reid-Foley tossed 7 2/3 innings of three-run ball this year in the majors, striking out 16 while walking six.

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Paredes, Swanson

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Top prospect Ceddanne Rafaela has found limited playing time with the Red Sox since being called up at the end of August despite an overall strong performance at the plate in the majors so far, going 7-for-16 with two doubles. When asked about Rafaela’s playing time, manager Alex Cora told reporters (including MassLive’s Chris Cotillo) that Rafaela will continue to play in a reserve role as long as the club remains in the playoff race.

While the playoff odds at Fangraphs give the Red Sox just a 1.3% chance to make the postseason after tonight’s loss to Baltimore, Boston still has three games to go against each of the two clubs directly ahead of them in the standings, Texas and Toronto. That gives them a slim opening for a miracle run despite being a whopping seven games back of the final AL Wild Card spot with just three weeks to go in the regular season. With Rafaela’s first taste of everyday action in the big leagues on hold for the time being, the versatile youngster figures to share time at second base with Enmanuel Valdez while also offering backup options to Trevor Story at shortstop and Adam Duvall in center field.

More from the AL East…

  • Rays infielder Isaac Paredes exited today’s game after being hit in the hand by a pitch from right-hander Luke Weaver during the fifth inning of today’s game against the Mariners. Fortunately for Tampa, x-rays on Paredes’s hand came back negative and the 24-year-old third baseman was diagnosed with a hand contusion. Manager Kevin Cash indicated to reporters (including those at MLB.com) that Paredes won’t be in tomorrow’s starting lineup and is day-to-day, but could be available off the bench if necessary. It’s been a breakout campaign for Paredes in 2023, as the youngster has slashed a fantastic .253/.352/.502 in 497 trips to the plate this season. 22-year-old rookie Osleivis Basabe figures to take over at the hot corner while Parades is out of action.
  • The Blue Jays could welcome back right-hander Erik Swanson in the near future. The righty has been out due to thoracic spine inflammation since late August, and he’ll reach the minimum 15 days spent on the IL tomorrow. Swanson made a rehab appearance with Triple-A Buffalo this evening, and notched one strikeout without allowing a baserunner during his inning of work. Assuming he bounces back from tonight’s outing well, MLB.com notes that Swanson could return to the big league club without requiring another rehab appearance. That’s great news for the Blue Jays, as Swanson was perhaps their most reliable set-up man for closer Jordan Romano before he went on the shelf. In 58 innings of work this season, Swanson sports a 3.10 ERA, 3.28 FIP, and a 29.4% strikeout rate. He figures to form a lethal three-headed-monster at the back of the Toronto bullpen alongside Romano and deadline addition Jordan Hicks should the Blue Jays make it to the postseason.

Danny Jansen Undergoes Finger Surgery

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Blue Jays catcher Danny Jansen underwent surgery yesterday to address his fractured right middle finger, the team announced (relayed by Scott Mitchell of TSN). He’s out for the rest of the regular season, though the club is leaving open the possibility for a return in the postseason if they qualify.

Jansen broke his finger last week when it was struck by a foul tip. The Jays promptly put him on the injured list, recalling Tyler Heineman from Triple-A to take the active roster spot. Heineman will remain in the #2 capacity while Alejandro Kirk takes the majority of the reps. The right-handed hitting Kirk had started the season slowly but has found his stride in the second half, posting a .296/.379/.463 line since the All-Star Break.

That positions the Jays better than virtually any other team to withstand the loss of a catcher, but it’s still disappointing for player and team alike. Jansen also missed time this year with a groin strain and has gone on the IL in each of the last three seasons. When healthy, the 28-year-old is one of the better catchers in the game. He owns a .228/.312/.474 slash with 17 homers in only 301 plate appearances this year.

In better news for Toronto, they reinstated Bo Bichette from the IL before this evening’s matchup with the Royals. Bichette missed a minimal amount of time with a quad strain. The star shortstop has been the Jays’ best player this year, so getting him back quickly is obviously a huge development for a team that entered play Friday half a game up on the Rangers for the last Wild Card spot in the American League.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s Unusual, Replacement-Level Season

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The Blue Jays are 1.5 games behind the Rangers for the last AL wild card berth, so it remains quite possible that Toronto could still end up as part of the postseason bracket.  However, simply squeaking into the playoffs wasn’t at all what the Jays envisioned when spending roughly $215MM (a club record) in payroll and surpassing the luxury tax threshold for the first time, as the team fully expected to be contending for a World Series title.

Alek Manoah’s extreme struggles and a lack of bench depth have contributed to the Jays’ underwhelming season, yet the biggest culprit has been a very up-and-down offense.  Though the Blue Jays are actually among the league’s best in getting hits and getting on base, they rank middle of the pack in runs due to an inability to consistently drive in runners in scoring position.  Beyond this specific flaw, the Jays have also gotten disappointing years at the plate from several regulars, and while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has still been above average, his oddity of a season has been pretty symbolic of Toronto’s 2023 campaign as a whole.

“Above average” production and a 112 wRC+ is a perfectly respectable year for most players, yet for Guerrero, it stands out as a red flag.  When that good (.264/.337/.432 with 20 homers over 579 plate appearances) but unspectacular offense is paired with a subpar defensive season, Guerrero has only 0.4 fWAR — among all qualified players in baseball, only 16 players have a lower fWAR than Guerrero’s modest total.

It is an eye-opening statistic, since for all of the money the Blue Jays have invested in building their roster, the team’s plans have been built around the assumption of excellent production from homegrown stars Guerrero and Bo Bichette.  While Bichette has mostly lived up to that billing and has been Toronto’s best player this season, Guerrero suddenly becoming barely a replacement-level player has been a big setback for the Jays.

And yet, a glimpse at Guerrero’s Statcast page would make one think that he is again an MVP candidate.  Guerrero ranks in at least the 89th percentile in such key categories as strikeout rate, hard contact, barrels, expected batting average, expected on-base percentage, expected slugging percentage, exit velocity, and xwOBA.  In fact, that latter statistic hints that Guerrero’s relative struggles this season have been due to horrid luck.  No qualified player in baseball has a larger gap between their xwOBA and wOBA than Guerrero, whose elite .379 xwOBA has resulted in a much more modest .332 wOBA.

The sea of red on Guerrero’s Statcast page seemingly indicates that a turn-around is imminent or almost inevitable, and yet as the calendar has now reached September, the first baseman has still yet to get hot for any extended period of time.  Guerrero’s best production came early in the season with an .885 OPS over 127 PA in March and April, but he has hit only .245/.318/.397 over 434 PA since May 5.

Hailed as a future cornerstone superstar and the game’s best prospect during his time in Toronto’s farm system, Guerrero seemed well on his way to living up to the hype with his sensational 2021 campaign.  Guerrero hit .311/.401/.601 with 48 homers over 698 plate appearances, and likely would’ve won AL MVP honors if it hadn’t been for Shohei Ohtani’s legendary two-way performance.

Rather than build on that big season, Guerrero took a relative step backwards in 2022, hitting .274/.339/.480 with 32 homers over 706 PA.  While not exactly a cause for concern considering that a 132+ wRC is still outstanding, Guerrero’s 2022 numbers revealed some issues that have become larger issues in 2023.  For one, Guerrero’s chase rates and chase contact rates have been well below average in 2022-23, as pitchers have learned that Guerrero is prone to swinging at pitches outside the zone with less-than-stellar results.

While Guerrero doesn’t strike out much, his tendency to chase has led to a lot of his hard-hit balls staying on the ground.  Guerrero has a 47.5% grounder rate this season, and an even 50% grounder rate since the start of the 2022 season — the eighth-highest among qualified hitters in that span.  Between these grounders, Guerrero’s below-average speed, and a .285 BABIP in 2022-23, it perhaps isn’t surprising that Guerrero has hit into 46 double plays since Opening Day 2022, tied for the most of any player in the league.

Guerrero has always had pretty high groundball rates over his five MLB seasons, yet in 2021, his career-best 36.5% fly ball rate resulted in that big 48-homer year.  He has only a 31.9% fly ball rate in the two seasons since, with rather a stark dropoff in overall power.  The first baseman’s Isolated Power metric has gone from .290 in 2021 to .205 last season to .169 this season.

As much as 2021 seemed like the first taste of what Guerrero was “supposed to be” as a budding superstar, it also stands out as an outlier within Guerrero’s five Major League seasons.  It is also worth noting that the 2021 season was also an outlier for the Blue Jays in general, as COVID-related border restrictions kept the team from actually playing in Toronto until the end of July.  Guerrero still had a .935 OPS in 152 PA at Rogers Centre in 2021, though even that impressive total paled in comparison to his numbers at the Blue Jays’ other two home ballparks that season — a 1.418 OPS in 96 PA at the Jays’ spring complex in Dunedin, or his 1.180 OPS in 98 PA at Buffalo’s Sahlen Field.

Since the pandemic also forced the Jays to play in Buffalo during the 60-game 2020 season, Guerrero has only played 241 games at his actual home ballpark in his career, and there is evidence that Guerrero has yet to entirely get comfortable at Rogers Centre.  Guerrero has hit .258/.327/.448 over 1024 career PA in Toronto, but his home/road splits have been unusually drastic this season.  Guerrero has only a .691 OPS at Rogers Centre in 2023, as compared to a much more respectable .837 OPS in road games.

The altered dimensions and wall sizes at Rogers Centre this season seems to have had some impact on overall offense, as Statcast’s Park Factor calculations rank Toronto as a slightly below-average hitting environment this season after years of being seen as a park that generally favors hitters.  Of course, there are some on-field factors that go into this calculation, as the reduced offense might have less to do with the ballpark renovations than how the Jays have had a strong defense and good pitching staff this season, or their own lineup’s lack of production.  And, since several other Blue Jays batters are hitting quite well at Rogers Centre, it is hard to pinpoint why Guerrero in particular is struggling so much in his home ballpark.

Beyond offense, Guerrero also hasn’t been helping his cause on defense.  Public defensive metrics (-8 Defensive Runs Saved, -0.3 UZR/150, -14 Outs Above Average) are very down on his glovework, which represents a step back after Guerrero had seemingly been improving as a first baseman in past seasons.  The public metrics have always been somewhat split on Guerrero’s defense, yet DRS gave him plus grades in both 2021 and 2022, while he had a +2.5 UZR/150 in 2021.

Given that he is close to competing his fifth MLB season, it is still almost a surprise to remember that Guerrero won’t turn 25 years old until March, and his prime years might well still be ahead of him.  Of course, this is small consolation to a team built to win right now, and Guerrero’s 2023 season also creates some new questions about his status as a long-term building block.  He is arbitration-controlled for two more seasons and will be due a raise on his $14.5MM salary in 2023, with his early-career success and Super Two status combining to give the first baseman some hefty paydays throughout his arb years.

The question of whether the Blue Jays will sign Guerrero and/or Bichette (or neither) to long-term contract extensions has been a lingering question for years, yet since Bichette is also controlled through 2025, it isn’t necessarily a question the Jays have to face just yet.  However, Guerrero’s 2023 performance is far from the ideal for a franchise player, and as that huge 2021 season gets further in the rearview mirror, the Blue Jays might still not know exactly what they have in Guerrero.

A big September would go a long way towards salvaging this season from a personal perspective and a team perspective if Guerrero can finally break out and carry the Jays into the playoffs.  But, after what has basically been a four-month slump, time is running out for Guerrero to adjust and turn his superb advanced metrics into better real-world results.

AL East Notes: Adam, Blue Jays, Wells

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Per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, Rays right-hander Jason Adam was unavailable during tonight’s 7-6 loss to the Guardians due to an oblique strain that will send him to the injured list. Adam hasn’t pitched since August 27 due to the issue. It’s another devastating injury for Tampa’s pitching staff, which has already lost three of its five opening day rotation members for the season in Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen and Shane McClanahan. Now, the bullpen has lost perhaps its most reliable setup arm for right-hander Pete Fairbanks.

After a sensational 2022 campaign with the Rays where Adam posted a 1.56 ERA in 67 appearances, the 31-year-old righty has taken a step back but is still dominant with a 2.67 ERA in 54 innings this season, 56% better than league average by measure of ERA+. With Adam headed to the IL, it’s fair to wonder if his regular season is in jeopardy, though without confirmation from Rays brass its hard to speculate on a timetable for return given the considerable variance in severity regarding oblique injuries. With Adam headed to the shelf, the Rays figure to rely on Fairbanks, Colin Poche, and Robert Stephenson to cover the late innings, with veteran Andrew Kitteredge as a potential X-factor for the bullpen as he returns from last year’s Tommy John surgery.

More from around the AL East…

  • The Blue Jays had interested in then-Mets outfielder Mark Canha prior to the trade deadline, when he was ultimately traded to the Brewers. Per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet, the club considered dealing for an additional bat like Canha or fellow Met Tommy Pham (who was eventually traded to Arizona) before ultimately opting to rely on prospect Davis Schneider to boost the offense down the stretch. While the decision to lean on Schneider looks prescient as the 24-year-old has set the world on fire with a 270 wRC+ in his first 15 games, a bat like Canha or Pham would surely help cover for the loss of Bo Bichette and Matt Chapman to the injured list earlier this week. Nicholson-Smith also notes that the club rebuffed interest from a free agent middle infielder toward the end of August in deference to Ernie Clement, who like Schneider has also delivered in a small sample size since taking over for Bichette at shortstop.
  • Orioles right-hander Tyler Wells is struggling with arm fatigue as he converts to a bullpen role with Triple-A Norfolk, as manager Brandon Hyde told reporters (including Jake Rill of MLB.com) today. As Rill notes, Wells last pitched on August 25, with Hyde noting that the righty hasn’t “bounced back” from his last outing as hoped. Wells posted a 3.18 ERA in 104 2/3 innings of work prior to the All Star break but was rocked for 11 runs in nine innings of work in three appearances after the break, prompting the club to demote the 29-year-old hurler for a conversion to the bullpen.
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