Rangers Claim Jose Barrero Off Waivers From Reds
The Rangers announced that infielder Jose Barrero was claimed off waivers from the Reds. Reporter Francys Romero (X link) revealed earlier today that Barrero was heading to Texas, though Romero indicated that the transaction was a trade rather than a waiver claim. In a corresponding move, Texas placed right-hander Carson Coleman on the 60-day injured list, as Coleman will be out until at least midseason recovering from Tommy John surgery.
It wasn’t long ago that Barrero was seen as a building block prospect, with Baseball America ranking him as the 33rd-best minor leaguer in the sport prior to the 2022 season. However, Barrero struggled badly at the plate in both Triple-A and in the big leagues in 2022, even though he got back on track in the minors with a nice .258/.333/.540 slash line with Triple-A Louisville in 2023. Barrero is now out of minor league options, and since several other Reds infielders have now passed him on the depth chart, Cincinnati apparently viewed the 25-year-old as expendable.
Barrero has hit only .186/.242/.255 over 447 career plate appearances in the majors, and it remains to be seen if he can produce even passable numbers against big league pitching. Still, it wouldn’t be the first time that a post-hype prospect has become a late bloomer after a move to a new organization, and Barrero’s Triple-A numbers indicate that he hasn’t entirely lost his batting eye.
Even beyond the hitting contributions, Barrero also offers good speed (69 steals in 87 attempts during his minor league career) and quality defense at multiple positions. Barrero has mostly played shortstop during his pro career, but has also gotten some action as a second baseman and even in center field, as the Reds looked for creative ways to find playing time for their many infielders.
Barrero’s versatility is a benefit to a Rangers team that has some early questions within their infield. First baseman Nathaniel Lowe is battling an oblique strain and might need to start the season on the 10-day injured list. Josh Jung was sidelined with a minor calf strain three weeks ago and is showing improvement, though isn’t yet back to full baseball activity. The duo of Ezequiel Duran and Josh H. Smith can cover third base if Jung needs to miss any regular-season time, though Duran might be needed at first base in Lowe’s absence, Barrero can help pick up the slack.
Matt Duffy and Jared Walsh are also in camp on minor league deals and top prospect Justin Foscue seems ready for his MLB debut, though Barrero’s presence now gives the Rangers more depth to work with as Opening Day approaches. Since Barrero is out of options, Texas would have to either carry him on the 26-man roster or expose him to waivers in order to send him back down to Triple-A, and this status could make it a little tricky for Barrero to break camp with the team depending on how the Rangers want to line up their roster.
White Sox Sign Brad Keller To Minor League Deal
The White Sox announced that they have signed right-hander Brad Keller to a minor league deal. The Excel Sports Management client also receives an invite to major league Spring Training.
The 28-year-old Keller became a free agent for the first time following the 2023 season but didn’t hit the market at a particularly advantageous time. His 2023 season was cut to just 45 1/3 innings due to a shoulder injury and, eventually, a diagnosis of thoracic outlet syndrome. TOS is a particularly difficult issue for pitchers to return from, but it’s notable that there was never an announcement that Keller underwent surgery to correct the issue. If he indeed avoided going under the knife and was able to deal with his symptoms via rest and rehab, that could portend a more optimistic outlook than the common TOS surgery that has derailed many pitching careers.
From 2018-20, Keller logged a 3.50 ERA in Kansas City, going from a long reliever whom the team selected out of the D-backs organization in the Rule 5 Draft to an entrenched member of the Royals rotation. His 2021-23 seasons went in the opposite direction.
Dating back to Opening Day 2021, Keller carries a 5.14 ERA in 318 2/3 innings. His once-strong walk rate has climbed to an untenable 11.5% — including a ghastly 21.3% clip in 2023 while he navigated that shoulder injury and the perhaps related TOS symptoms. Keller limited opponents to a 4.5% barrel rate and 35.7% hard-hit rate through his first three seasons but has seen those marks leap to 8.4% and 42%, respectively, over the past three years. He’s lost about a mile per hour off his fastball as well.
Keller tried to revamp his repertoire in 2023, ditching his four-seamer and scarcely using his sinker while instead deploying a trio of new pitches: cutter, splitter, curveball. That mix didn’t work out, though it’s hard to glean just how effective those pitches may or may not truly be, given the health troubles that were plaguing him. Keller has long had a plus slider, although that pitch’s efficacy took a step back over the past two seasons as well, particularly in 2023 due to an inability to locate the offering.
Suffice it to say, Keller is a project for the White Sox organization. There’s little harm in taking a look on a minor league pact, but it’s been three years and one particularly ominous injury since he was last an effective big league hurler. He’s not likely to break camp with the club but could join veterans like Chad Kuhl and Jake Woodford as an experienced right-handed depth starter to begin the season in Triple-A Charlotte.
Abraham Almonte To Sign With Mexican League’s Olmecas De Tabasco
Veteran outfielder Abraham Almonte is in agreement with the Olmecas de Tabasco of the Mexican League, reports Kiley McDaniel of ESPN (X link). Former MLB infielder José Peraza is also headed to Mexico, per McDaniel. He agreed to a deal with the Leones de Yucatán.
Almonte, 34, has reached the majors in each of the last 11 seasons. That’s a rather remarkable stretch for a player who has never been a regular. Almonte has only once topped 70 big league games in a year, but he has gotten depth opportunities for eight MLB clubs overall. His most recent major league action came in Queens. The switch-hitter played in eight games with the Mets last summer.
In a little less than 1400 MLB plate appearances, Almonte owns a .233/.300/.371 batting line. He’s coming off a .220/.361/.464 showing in 50 contests over three minor league levels in the Mets’ farm system. If Almonte is to extend his streak of reaching the big leagues to 12 years, he’ll first need to earn another minor league opportunity during the season.
Peraza reached the majors in seven consecutive campaigns between 2015-21. He was a reasonably highly-regarded prospect during his time in the Dodgers and Reds organizations early in his career. Peraza has hit .266/.306/.372 as a big leaguer. As with Almonte, he last saw the majors as a member of the Mets, although that came three years ago. He spent last year in the New York farm system, hitting .261/.315/.366 in 41 Triple-A games.
Giants, Justin Garza Agree To Minor League Deal
The Giants are in agreement with reliever Justin Garza on a minor league deal, reports Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 (X link). The right-hander is expected to report to minor league camp, Alexander adds.
That indicates Garza won’t be on the radar for a spot in the Opening Day bullpen. He’ll presumably start the season at Triple-A Sacramento and seek a midseason call-up. The Fullerton product has pitched in the majors in two of the past three years. He logged 21 appearances in Cleveland in 2021. After spending the ’22 campaign in Triple-A, he returned to the big leagues with 17 outings as a low-leverage arm for the Red Sox last season.
Garza has yet to find much success against big league hitters. He posted a 4.71 ERA in his rookie season and allowed 7.36 earned runs per nine for Boston. Garza managed only an 18.7% strikeout percentage and walked upwards of 13% of batters faced for the Sox. He has given up a lot of hard contact in each of his MLB stints.
Things have gone a bit more smoothly in the upper minors. Garza owns a solid 3.98 ERA over parts of three Triple-A campaigns. He has fanned an above-average 27.7% of opposing hitters at that level. Throwing strikes consistently has still been an issue, but the 29-year-old (30 later this month) has shown the ability to miss bats against upper level hitters. He has averaged just under 95 MPH on his sinker in his big league work.
Garza has two minor league options remaining. If the Giants call on him at any point, they could move him between Oracle Park and Sacramento without exposing him to waivers.
Pirates To Sign Eric Lauer To Minor League Deal
Left-hander Eric Lauer will be heading to the Pirates on a minor league deal, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The CAA Sports client will presumably be invited to major league camp.
Lauer, 29 in June, has been a viable big league starter at times in his career but is coming off a frustrating season. He opened the year in the Brewers’ rotation but struggled. He had a 5.48 earned run average through nine outings when he was placed on the injured list in late May due to an impingement in right, non-throwing shoulder. He was activated off the IL in mid-June but optioned to the minors.
Things didn’t go much better down on the farm as he posted a 6.39 ERA in 56 1/3 innings down there. He was recalled to the big league club for an outing in late September, after the Brewers had already clinched the division. But that turned into a nightmarish outing, as the lefty was tagged for eight earned runs in four innings. He revealed at that time that he had been battling shoulder and elbow issues throughout the year, per Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel.
The Brewers could have retained him for 2024 via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting him for a salary of $5.2MM. But Milwaukee outrighted him off the roster in the middle of October, which was effectively an early non-tender.
The Bucs will be hoping that those health issues are behind him and he can return to his previous form. Over 2021 and 2022, Lauer tossed 277 1/3 innings for Milwaukee with a 3.47 ERA, striking out 23.8% of batters while giving out walks at an 8.7% clip. Lauer struggled in the shortened 2020 season but was also effective in the two seasons prior to that. With the Padres in 2018 and 2019, he posted a 4.40 ERA with a 20.6% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate.
Lauer’s never shown any kind of ace-level upside but he has a proven ability to be a back-of-the-rotation guy, which could be enough for him to be valuable to the Pirates. Their rotation is currently fronted by Mitch Keller but he is followed by a series of question marks.
Veterans Martín Pérez and Marco Gonzales were acquired this winter to serve as veteran stalwarts but each of them is coming off a frustrating campaign. Pérez struggled enough last year to get bumped out of the Rangers’ rotation and had some good results out of the bullpen but ultimately finished with a 4.98 ERA on the year as a starter. Gonzales required surgery for a nerve issue in his left forearm after logging just 50 innings over 10 starts.
There are two spots available at the back end, with guys like Jared Jones, Roansy Contreras, Quinn Priester, Luis Ortiz, Bailey Falter and Kyle Nicolas in the mix for those roles. Everyone in that group is either fairly limited in terms of experience or struggled badly last year or both. JT Brubaker and Mike Burrows could be options in the second half but both are currently recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Given the general rotation uncertainty behind Keller, and the inevitability of pitcher injuries, there should be an opportunity for Lauer if he can get back into his 2021-2022 form. He averaged around 93 miles per hour with his fastball over 2021 and 2022 but was down to 90.8 mph last year, perhaps lending some credence to the fact that he wasn’t fully healthy and providing an explanation for his poor performance.
If things work out especially well for Lauer this year, he could also be kept around for the 2025 season. His service time count is currently at four years and 111 days, meaning he would come up shy of six years even if he made the team out of camp and spent the whole season on the roster. He is out of options, however, so the Bucs would have to remove him from the 40-man entirely if they want him off the active roster at any point.
Lauer will have to earn a roster spot before any of that becomes a concern, of course, but it’s a good fit for both sides. Starting pitching is an obvious weakness for the Pirates and Lauer could find some runway to launch a bounceback campaign for himself.
Red Sox Sign Brayan Bello To Extension
The Red Sox announced they have signed right-hander Brayan Bello to a six-year extension with a club option for 2030. It will give the team an extra two years of control over the 24-year-old and reportedly has a $55MM guarantee. Bello had previously been controllable through the 2028 season, but the Sox have locked in one would-be free agent year and also secured a club option for a second season that’s said to be valued at $21MM. Bello is represented by ISE Baseball.
Chris Cotillo of MassLive was among those to relay the full breakdown. Bello will get a $1MM signing bonus and salary of $1MM here in 2024, followed by successive salaries of $2.5MM, $6MM, $8.5MM, $16MM and $19MM. There’s also a $1MM buyout on the $21MM club option. There are also bonuses and escalators based on Cy Young voting and All-Star selections.
Bello, 25 in May, was signed out of the Dominican Republic for a modest bonus of $28K. But he continued to find success as he moved up the minor league ladder, climbing prospect lists in the process. Baseball America had him in the 15-20 range of their list of the top 30 Red Sox prospects in 2020 and 2021, then vaulted him up to #5 going into 2022. That was based on a 2021 season wherein Bello tossed 95 1/3 innings on the farm with a 3.87 earned run average, 32.8% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate while also keeping about half of balls in play on the ground.
He was added to the club’s 40-man roster late in 2021 to keep him out of that year’s Rule 5 draft. In 2022, he posted a 2.76 ERA at the Triple-A level and also got to make a brief major league debut, tossing 57 1/3 innings. His 4.71 ERA in that time wasn’t especially strong but his 55.7% ground ball rate and .404 BABIP suggested at least some of that was misfortune.
Last year got out to a shaky start, as he began the year on the injured list due to some elbow inflammation. He returned in mid-April and had a couple of shaky starts before the Sox decided to option him to the minors. An injury to Garrett Whitlock led to a quick return for Bello and it was at that point that he put together a strong stretch of work that established him as a viable big league hurler.
From his April 28 recall through the end of August, he made 21 starts for the Sox with a 3.20 ERA. His 19% strikeout rate was below average but his 6.4% walk rate and 55% ground ball rate were very strong. He seemed to run out of gas at that point, as he allowed 22 earned run in 26 September innings. Between the poor finish and the rough start, Bello ended up with a 4.24 ERA on the year overall, but the middle section of the season clearly opened some eyes.
It’s obviously a bit favorable to Bello to exclude his worst results, but he was a bit banged up at the beginning of the year and the thud at the end could be chalked up to last year being his largest innings tally thus far. The Sox clearly believe he’s capable of taking a step forward if they are willing to invest in him. He’s already shown he can keep the ball on the ground and the strikeouts might come around eventually, as his 11% swinging strike rate in his career so far is right around league average and he’s punched out 28.9% of hitters faced in the minors.
The Sox have very little starting pitching certainty going forward. Lucas Giolito was signed to a two-year deal this offseason but he now seems to be facing a significant absence due to a partially-torn UCL and a flexor tendon strain. Nick Pivetta is slated for free agency after 2024. That leaves their long-term rotation mix consisting of Bello, Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock. Those are talented arms, but each of Crawford, Whitlock and Houck are still somewhat unestablished, with none of them having tossed 130 innings in a major league season yet. On BA’s current list of the top 30 prospects in the system, only two of the top 10 are pitchers, with Wikelman Gonzalez at #7 and Luis Perales at #9. The latter has yet to reach Double-A and the former has less than 50 innings pitched at that level.
Given those options, it’s understandable why the Sox wanted to build around Bello. And from the player’s perspective, his small bonus means he has yet to bank meaningful earnings, unlike a top draft pick or hyped-up international player who may already have millions stashed away. Bello’s service time clock is currently at one year and 82 days, meaning he wouldn’t have even reached arbitration until after the 2025 season.
A deal has seemed like a strong possibility for some time now. Back in January of last year, the young righty expressed his openness to such an arrangement and reporting from July suggested the club would likely broach the subject at some point. A few weeks ago, further reporting indicated that the two sides were discussing a new deal and it seems they are now making some headway.
As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Bello is just the fifth pitcher with between one and two years of MLB service time to sign an extension in the past eight years. The two most recent examples — Cincinnati’s Hunter Greene and Atlanta’s Spencer Strider — signed six-year deals worth $53MM and $75MM, respectively. Strider’s contract is a record for this service class and was never likely to be matched by Bello. But the Boston right-hander will settle in just north of Greene’s deal, which was surely a point of focus for Bello and his camp.
Extensions usually feature climbing salaries as the years progress, roughly mirroring the arbitration process. The Sox currently have little on the books that would coincide with the most expensive years of this potential extension. Rafael Devers is under contract through 2033, but no one else is guaranteed a contract beyond 2027. Trevor Story and Masataka Yoshida are the only players guaranteed a salary beyond 2026. Adding Bello to that mix will put another salary of note on the payroll and modestly add to the team’s luxury ledger, but the extension is nonetheless an affordable means of locking in some stability while giving the team some upside in the event that Bello takes his game to a new level.
Alex Speier of the Boston Globe first reported that the two sides were in “advanced” talks on a deal. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel broke the news that the two parties had agreed on a six-year, $55MM deal.
Nationals To Sign Eddie Rosario
11:20am: Rosario’s minor league deal contains a $2MM base salary and another $2MM of incentives, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He’ll head to big league camp once he passes his physical.
9:10am: Rosario’s contract is a minor league deal, tweets Andrew Golden of the Washington Post.
8:54am: The Nationals and free agent outfielder Eddie Rosario are in agreement on a split contract that can pay the veteran up to $4MM after incentives, reports Daniel Alvarez Montes of El Extra Base. The deal is still pending a physical. Rosario is represented by Rimas Sports.
Rosario, 32, is a veteran of nine big league seasons who’ll be joining his fourth MLB club after spending six seasons in Minnesota, half a year in Cleveland and two and a half seasons with Atlanta. He appeared in 142 games with the Braves last season, tallying 516 plate appearances and batting .255/.305/.450 with 21 home runs, 24 doubles, three triples, three steals, a 6.6% walk rate and a 23.6% strikeout rate.
From 2017-20 with the Twins, Rosario was a key presence in the middle of the lineup, popping a total of 96 home runs in 2002 plate appearances and hitting .281/.317/.493 — about 12% better than league average, by measure of wRC+. His bat has tailed off since that time, however. Rosario’s blistering run with the Braves following his acquisition at the 2021 trade deadline helped push Atlanta to the postseason, and his Herculean performance in that year’s NLCS won him MVP honors during that series. But on the whole, Rosario’s bat has been below average since departing Minnesota.
Over the past three seasons, Rosario has turned in a tepid .247/.295/.417 batting line (91 wRC+). He’s still shown some power, connecting on 40 homers and logging a .171 ISO (slugging minus batting average) in that time, but Rosario has become increasingly strikeout prone along the way.
During that peak four-year run with Minnesota, Rosario fanned in just 16.5% of his plate appearances. That mark has climbed to 24.2% over the past two seasons. Rosario has never walked much, but in the past, his plus bat-to-ball skills have helped to offset his anemic walk rates and justify his swing-at-everything approach. That’s no longer the case. In 2022-23, Rosario swung more often than all but 13 big league hitters (min. 500 plate appearances), but his contact rate ranked 265th of 318 in that same subset. The issue is magnified on pitches off the plate. Rosario has chased outside the strike zone more frequently than all but seven hitters in that span but ranks 173rd in contact rate on pitches off the plate.
Those traits underscore the free-swinging Rosario’s problematic approach at the plate, but the lefty-swinging veteran can still punish mistakes in the strike zone, particularly against right-handed pitching. His career batting average and OBP lack any telling platoon splits, but the vast majority of Rosario’s power comes when facing righties.
Defensively, Rosario has experience in all three outfield spots but is best deployed as a left fielder. His sprint speed (28 ft/sec, per Statcast) still ranks comfortably above league average, but he’s never displayed the range for center field and his once-elite arm has deteriorated over the past few seasons. As recently as 2020, Rosario averaged a huge 91.6 mph on his throws from the outfield, placing him in the 95th percentile of MLB outfielders. He was down to 85.1 mph in 2023, effectively placing him right at league average.
With the Nationals, Rosario can give manager Davey Martinez another veteran to compete for time in left field, joining fellow lefty hitter Jesse Winker in that regard. Center field figures to be manned by Victor Robles, with Lane Thomas slated for everyday reps in right field. Rosario and/or Winker could also contribute at designated hitter, but the Nats signed Joey Gallo to a big league deal last month and still have Joey Meneses as well.
That gives the Nats plenty of options at first base, designated hitter and left field. Assuming the physical goes well, Rosario will be among the favorites for playing time in left field, perhaps in a platoon setting with righty-hitting Stone Garrett. Rosario will also give Washington some depth to allow touted prospects and potential cornerstones Dylan Crews and James Wood to continue developing in the upper minors rather than rushing them to the big leagues. It’s a low-cost, minimal-risk deal for a team that has looked light on experienced outfield depth and on viable power threats in the middle of the order.
Braves Sign Skye Bolt To Minor League Deal
The Braves recently signed outfielder Skye Bolt to a minor league contract. He made his Spring Training debut as a defensive replacement in today’s exhibition matchup with the Tigers.
Bolt, 30, is looking to get back to the majors for the first time since 2022. The North Carolina product appeared in parts of three big league campaigns with the two Bay Area franchises between 2019-22. Bolt saw the majority of his action with the A’s in the final of those seasons, hitting .198/.259/.330 over 42 games. He carries a .156/.205/.266 batting line over 187 big league plate appearances overall.
As one would expect, Bolt has turned in better numbers in Triple-A. The switch-hitter owns a .298/.388/.483 slash over four seasons at that level. That has mostly come in favorable hitting environments in the Pacific Coast League. He wasn’t as effective with Milwaukee’s top farm team a year ago, posting a .257/.359/.367 line in 64 contests.
Bolt has above-average speed befitting his name. He’s capable of playing all three outfield positions and has generally drawn a decent number of walks in the minors, albeit without much power. It’s very unlikely he snags an Opening Day roster spot, but he’ll add a depth option at Triple-A Gwinnett.
Atlanta’s starting outfield of Jarred Kelenic, Michael Harris II and Ronald Acuña Jr. is entrenched, yet their top depth options are light on MLB experience. Forrest Wall and J.P. Martínez, the other outfielders on the 40-man roster, have combined for 32 big league games. The Braves have added a handful of non-roster players to potentially push for a fourth outfield role. Leury García, Jordan Luplow, Eli White, Luis Liberato and Luke Williams are all in big league camp.
Padres Sign Brad Miller To Minor League Deal
The Padres have signed infielder/outfielder Brad Miller to a minor league deal, per AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. The client of ISE Baseball also receives an invite to big league camp.
Miller, 34, is coming off a couple of mostly lost seasons with the Rangers. He made separate trips to the injured list last year due to a right oblique strain and left hamstring strain. He only got into 27 games and hit .214/.328/.339 in that time. 2022 was a similar situation as he got into 81 games and hit just .212/.270/.320, missing time due to right hip issues and a neck strain.
Prior to that, he was coming off a strong three-year run, which is what led to his two-year, $10MM pact in Texas. From 2019 to 2021, he suited up for Cleveland, Philadelphia and St. Louis, hitting 40 home runs in those three seasons, one of which was shortened to 60 games. His 28.3% strikeout rate was a bit high but he also drew walks at an 11.8% clip. His combined .236/.331/.480 slash line over that three-year period translated to a wRC+ of 114, indicating he was 14% above league average.
Defensively, Miller has bounced all over the diamond, having played all four infield spots in his career as well as all three outfield positions. But he has hardly played shortstop since 2016, hasn’t played center at all since 2015 and his last second base appearance was in 2021. He’s probably best suited to the four corner spots, which could still make him a fit for the Padres.
The Friars have a wide open outfield, apart from Fernando Tatis Jr. being in right field. Non-roster invitees like Jackson Merrill, Jakob Marsee, Calvin Mitchell and Óscar Mercado appear to be competing for outfield playing time with guys like Jurickson Profar and José Azocar. On the infield corners, Jake Cronenworth figures to be at first and Manny Machado at third. There’s some uncertainty with the latter since he’s coming back from elbow surgery but he seems on track to be ready by Opening Day.
Infielders Eguy Rosario and Matthew Batten are on the 40-man roster but both have options, as does Azocar. The Padres only have 37 players on their 40-man roster and Tucupita Marcano will likely wind up on the 60-day IL at some point due to a torn ACL that’s going to keep him out until midseason. If the Friars wanted to, they could select someone like Miller to serve in a bench role, even if they also add a couple of those NRIs to fill out the outfield. Meanwhile, the optionable players could be sent to the minors for regular reps. The club also doesn’t have a strict designated hitter on the roster, which opens up plenty of opportunities for someone in this cluster.
Miller is also a lefty hitter with strong platoon splits who could perhaps be utilized in a specialized role. He has slashed .242/.325/.438 against righties in his career for a wRC+ of 109, but just .216/.273/.334 against southpaws for a 67 wRC+. Each of Azocar, Rosario, Batten and Mercado hit from the right side, which could give manager Mike Shildt some opportunities to mix and match as needed. But first, Miller will need to earn himself a spot on the roster after a couple of injury-marred campaigns.
Phillies Sign Zack Wheeler To Extension
Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has been open with his desire to extend ace Zack Wheeler before he reaches free agency at the end of the 2024 season, and he got it done Monday, announcing that Wheeler has signed a three-year extension covering the 2025-27 seasons. The Wasserman client will reportedly be guaranteed $126MM on the contract, which does not include any options or opt-out opportunities.
As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, that $42MM annual rate is the largest on any contract extension in the sport’s history and the fourth-largest AAV on any contract ever, placing Wheeler only behind Shohei Ohtani, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. Wheeler has now been added to MLBTR’s list of the game’s largest AAVs ever, as well.
That the contract begins in 2025 rather than overriding the final season of the right-hander’s current five-year, $118MM contract is notable for luxury tax purposes. Because the deal goes into place in 2025, Wheeler’s CBT hit will remain $23.6MM for the upcoming season before vaulting substantially in 2025. The Phillies were already into the second tier of luxury penalization, and a significant boost for Wheeler would’ve pushed them into the third tier, dropping their top pick in the draft by 10 spots.
Wheeler already has more than ten years of major league service time, and he’ll hit five years with the Phillies at the end of the 2024 season. That’ll give him 10-and-5 rights, granting Wheeler the power to veto any potential trade over the life of his new contract with the Phils.
It’s rare for any nine-figure deal in free agency to wind up being considered a bargain, but Wheeler has been worth every penny of his original $118MM contract — and then some. Currently 33 years old, Wheeler ranks fourth in Major League Baseball with 629 1/3 innings pitched dating back to 2020, the first season of the contract. His 3.06 ERA, 2.90 FIP and 3.42 SIERA rank 11th, fourth and 15th among 121 qualified big league pitchers in that time.
Since signing with the Phils, Wheeler has punched out 26.7% of his opponents against a sparkling 5.3% walk rate. Despite the homer-friendly nature of Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park, Wheeler has yielded an average of just 0.74 homers per nine frames — closely in line with his career mark of 0.83.
Wheeler’s 96 mph average fastball velocity in 2023 was down from its 97.3 mph peak (set in 2021), but he actually posted excellent swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates, sitting at 13.% and 36.6%, respectively. Those two marks were not only his best as a Phillie but the best single-season marks he’s posted in either category in his entire career to date. When opponents did manage to make contact against Wheeler, it was typically of the feeble variety. Hitters averaged a dismal 86.9 mph exit velocity against Wheeler this past season, placing the right-hander in the 88th percentile of big league pitchers.
Detractors can point to Wheeler’s 3.61 ERA in 2023 as a sign of decline, but as already laid out, Wheeler missed bats at career-best levels in 2023, maintained plus velocity and kept his walk rate among the league’s best. The primary skill change in Wheeler’s approach was a decline in grounders (41.2% — down from 49.6% in his first three years with Philly). That led to a few more home runs but correlated with the uptick in missed bats. Given that the Phillies annually trot out a poor defensive alignment behind their pitchers, the increase in missed bats is a better portent of long-term success than a reliance on keeping balls on the ground anyhow. Wheeler’s 71.3% strand rate — an outlier mark when looking at his year-to-year levels — figures to regress closer to the 74.3% mark he carried into the 2023 season. Assuming that indeed plays out, so long as Wheeler maintains something close to his current K-BB%, there’s a good chance his ERA will improve accordingly.
The dominance for Wheeler stretches far beyond his regular season work, however. He’s been an integral part of the Phillies’ deep playoff over the past two seasons — his first two tastes of postseason action to this point in his career. Wheeler has made 11 appearances (10 starts, one relief) and piled up 63 1/3 innings of 2.42 ERA ball with a 28.6% strikeout rate against a 4.2% walk rate while pitching in the postseason.
With Wheeler now entrenched in Philadelphia through the 2027 season and Aaron Nola also re-signed for another seven seasons, the Philadelphia rotation is set for the foreseeable future. That pair will continue to lead the way, with Ranger Suarez, Cristopher Sanchez and Taijuan Walker all controlled/signed for multiple additional seasons. Suarez is arbitration-eligible through the 2026 season, while Walker is signed through 2027 and Sanchez is controllable all the way through 2028. Strong as that group may be, the Phillies continue to be linked to a possible short-term deal with reigning NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell — though signing Snell would catapult the team into the top tier of luxury penalization, which would push the team’s top draft choice back ten spots and likely mean more than $35MM in taxes on top of any salary.
Barring a one final, surprising splash on the free agent or trade market, the Phillies have other depth options in house. Former Tigers righty Spencer Turnbull and former Braves/Rangers southpaw Kolby Allard both signed big league deals over the winter. The Phils also have a stable of touted pitching prospects including Andrew Painter (currently rehabbing from Tommy John surgery), Mick Abel and Griff McGarry all working their way toward MLB debuts, giving them some quality young options. Painter isn’t likely to pitch at all in 2024 while recovering from last summer’s surgery, but he was in the mix to be the team’s fifth starter last year in spring training despite being just 19 years old during camp. He’ll be firmly in the 2025 rotation mix, though the team will presumably have him on some form of innings limit.
The Wheeler extension will take the Phillies north of $200MM in payroll commitments for the 2025 season before the first pitch of the 2024 campaign is even thrown, and with him now signed through the 2027 season, the Phils have a quartet of nine-figure deals they’ll be paying out at least four years down the road (Wheeler, Nola, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper). From a CBT standpoint, the Wheeler deal all but ensures that the Phillies will again be luxury tax payors next season at the very least. RosterResource projects Philadelphia for a hefty $229MM of luxury obligations next season, and that doesn’t even include next offseason’s dealings or any of the team’s arbitration-eligible players.
Wheeler would have been one of the top arms available in a deep class of free agent pitchers next winter. The 2024-25 offseason will still feature Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Shane Bieber, Walker Buehler, Scherzer and Verlander — pending further extensions among the group. Gerrit Cole also has an opt-out in his contract next winter, though the Yankees can (and very likely will, barring any sort of major injury) override that opt-out by picking up a club option for a tenth season at $36MM.
Wheeler would’ve landed behind younger aces like Burnes and Fried in terms of overall earning power, but as this extension shows, his earning power on a strict AAV basis very well could have been the highest of the bunch. Instead, he’ll anchor a deep Phillies rotation that’ll take aim at a third consecutive NLCS appearance in 2024 and look to secure the World Series title they fell just short of back in 2022.
ESPN’s Buster Olney first reported that the two parties had agreed to a multi-year extension. Matt Gelb of The Athletic first reported the terms of the contract.