Enter The MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest
The MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent Prediction Contest is now open! Click here to enter your picks for the destinations for our top 50 free agents. The deadline for entry is TONIGHT at 11pm central time. You can edit your picks until then. Further contest info:
- After the window to make picks has closed, we’ll post a public leaderboard page so you can see who’s winning the contest as players sign with teams. We’re going to use entrants’ full names on it. So, if that concerns you, please do not enter the contest. Entries with inappropriate names will be deleted.
- We are also collecting email addresses, which I will use to notify winners.
- If a player signs between now and the close of the contest, that player will be excluded from the contest.
- After you submit your picks, you’ll receive an email from Google Forms. In that email, you’ll see a button that allows you to edit your picks.
- We will announce the winners on MLBTR once all 50 free agents have signed. We will award $500 to first place, $300 to second place, and $100 to third place. We will also be giving one-year memberships to Trade Rumors Front Office for everyone who finishes in the top 15. Winners must respond to an email within one week.
- The winners of this contest will be declared on Opening Day 2025, and any unsigned players will be excluded from the competition.
- Ties in the correct number of picks will be broken by summing up the rankings of the free agents of the correct picks and taking the lower total. For example: Tim and Steve each get two picks correct. Tim gets Juan Soto (#1 ranking) and Clay Holmes (#21 ranking) for a total of 22 points. Steve gets Max Fried (#6) and Tanner Scott (#14) for a total of 20 points. Steve’s total is lower and he’s ahead of Tim for tiebreaker purposes.
If you have any further questions, ask us in the comment section of this post! Otherwise, make your picks now!
Alex Bregman Has Bone Chip Removed From Elbow
Agent Scott Boras spoke to the media at the general managers meetings in San Antonio today. He discussed the situations with many of his clients, noting that infielder Alex Bregman underwent a procedure to remove a bone chip from his right elbow. Per Boras, Bregman will resume swinging in a few weeks and should be fine for spring training. Chandler Rome of The Athletic was among those to relay the news on X.
The news doesn’t come out of nowhere, as Bregman dealt with some elbow soreness in August. He didn’t go on the injured list but did miss about a week and then served as the designated hitter for a few games once he returned to the lineup. He was back at third base at the end of August and through September but clearly the issue lingered enough that it needed offseason attention.
Assuming the timeline provided by Boras is accurate, it shouldn’t be a big deal for Bregman, as he will seemingly have plenty of opportunity to heal up. But it will nonetheless be something for clubs to monitor before making a sizable investment in Bregman.
He recently ranked third on MLBTR’s annual list of the Top 50 Free Agents with a prediction that he could secure a guarantee of $182MM over a seven-year deal. As clubs like the Astros, Mariners, Blue Jays, Mets, Yankees, Tigers and others consider forking over that kind of cash, any kind of health situation will be something to watch closely. The free agent market doesn’t really have another viable everyday third baseman but the trade market could feature guys like Nolan Arenado or Eugenio Suárez.
Durability has generally been a strong suit in Bregman’s career. He missed a small amount of time in 2020 due to a right hamstring discomfort then in 2021 due to a left quad strain, but he appeared in at least 155 games from 2017 to 2019, then again in 2022 and 2023 before getting into 145 this past season. He’s hit .272/.366/.483 in his career with above-average defense at third base, allowing him to produce 39.7 wins above replacement so far, in the eyes of FanGraphs.
Gold Glove Winners Announced
Major League Baseball announced the Gold Glove winners tonight, as selected by a group of managers, coaches, and statistical analysis. Twenty-five percent of the selection total was determined by SABR’s Defensive Index metrics, while the other 75 percent was determined by votes from all 30 managers and up to six coaches from each team. The utility Gold Glove was determined in a separate fashion, via a defensive formula calculated by SABR and Rawlings.
National League winners….
- Catcher: Patrick Bailey (1st Gold Glove)…..Finalists: Gabriel Moreno, Will Smith
- First base: Christian Walker (3rd)…..Finalists: Bryce Harper, Matt Olson
- Second base: Brice Turang (1st)…..Finalists: Ketel Marte, Bryson Stott
- Third base: Matt Chapman, (5th)…..Finalists: Nolan Arenado, Ryan McMahon
- Shortstop: Ezequiel Tovar (1st)…..Finalists: Dansby Swanson, Masyn Winn
- Left field: Ian Happ (3rd)…..Finalists: Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Brandon Marsh
- Center field: Brenton Doyle (2nd)…..Finalists: Blake Perkins, Jacob Young
- Right field: Sal Frelick (1st)…..Finalists: Jake McCarthy, Mike Yastrzemski
- Pitcher: Chris Sale (1st)…..Finalists: Luis Severino, Zack Wheeler
- Utility: Jared Triolo (1st)…..Finalists: Brendan Donovan, Enrique Hernandez
American League winners….
- Catcher: Cal Raleigh (1st)…..Finalists: Freddy Fermin, Jake Rogers
- First base: Carlos Santana (1st)…..Finalists: Nathaniel Lowe, Ryan Mountcastle
- Second base: Andres Gimenez (3rd)…..Finalists: Nicky Lopez, Marcus Semien
- Third base: Alex Bregman (1st)…..Finalists: Ernie Clement, Jose Ramirez
- Shortstop: Bobby Witt Jr. (1st)…..Finalists: Brayan Rocchio, Anthony Volpe
- Left field: Steven Kwan (3rd)…..Finalists: Colton Cowser, Alex Verdugo
- Center field: Daulton Varsho (1st)…..Finalists: Jarren Duran, Jake Meyers
- Right field: Wilyer Abreu (1st)…..Finalists: Jo Adell, Juan Soto
- Pitcher: Seth Lugo (1st)…..Finalists: Griffin Canning, Cole Ragans
- Utility: Dylan Moore (1st)…..Finalists: Willi Castro, Mauricio Dubon
Manfred: MLB To Test Ball-Strike Challenge System In Spring Training
Major League Baseball plans to test the ball-strike challenge system during next year’s Spring Training, commissioner Rob Manfred said this week. Manfred suggested as much on Monday in a conversation with Jack Curry of the YES Network (X link). The commissioner reiterated that this morning in an interview with Chris Russo on SiriusXM’s Mad Dog Sports Radio.
“What I can tell you 100% is we are going to test the challenge system in Major League Spring Training in 2025,” Manfred told Russo. “I think that’s an important step forward.” That isn’t a stepping stone to implementing the system in regular season games by next year. Manfred said in May that he didn’t believe the technology would be sufficiently ironed out to put the automatic strike zone in place for meaningful games by ’25.
The commissioner didn’t reveal a specific timeline for its regular season implementation. He did tell The Dan Patrick Show last week (X link) that he expected to have some form of automated zone in place by the end of his tenure as commissioner, which concludes in the 2028-29 offseason. The date will presumably be dependent on the feedback MLB gets from players, coaches, and umpires. While MLB initially seemed to embrace a fully robotic zone, they’ve pivoted to the challenge system after testing both the challenge and the full ABS in the minors.
The challenge system leaves the human umpire as the default. Each team gets a finite number of challenges to turn to the automatic zone on borderline pitches. Challenges must be called for in real time by the hitter, pitcher or catcher. That’ll leave some missed calls but reduces the likelihood of a blown call on an especially important pitch.
That assuages some concerns about the rule book strike zone not perfectly aligning with the way players expect the game to be called. One common complaint about the automatic zone is its tendency to reward pitchers for clipping the top of the zone with an elevated breaking ball. That’s less likely to be an issue with the challenge system, as pitchers and catchers won’t often dispute pitches they don’t perceive as strikes themselves.
The challenge system also preserves some of the value of a catcher’s framing ability, although it offers a check in high-leverage spots when stealing a strike would be most significant. From a fan perspective, that’s mostly an aesthetic concern. It’s an economic one for some players, as there are plenty of current catchers whose value is driven largely by their receiving skills.
In an unrelated bit of rule experimentation, MLB used the Arizona Fall League as a testing ground for check swings. As Baseball America’s Josh Norris first observed (on X) last week, players were able to use bat tracking technology to challenge a check swing call.
MLB rules don’t spell out a technical definition of a check swing. Subjectivity doesn’t work for a challenge system. Sam Dykstra of MLB.com writes that the league used a 45-degree threshold for the bat angle. In other words, if the bat angle went beyond the opposite field base line, it was deemed a swing. The check swing challenge was only in use during the Fall League. There’s no indication it’s under consideration for testing with MLB players, though it wouldn’t be a surprise if it gets an eventual trial run in minor league regular season games.
MLB Player Agency Updates
MLBTR maintains a database of players and their agencies, which is exclusive to Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.
Today, we updated this database to contain only players who appeared in the Majors from 2022-24. The resulting database contains 2,117 players. We have the agency for about three-quarters of these players.
If you click below, there’s a list of 540 players for whom we do not have their agency. If your company represents these players and you would like to fill in some blanks or correct errors, that would be welcome! Please reach out through our contact form.
Here’s our list of players without known agencies:
Carlos Carrasco Plans To Continue Pitching
Carlos Carrasco was in attendance this evening as Venezuelan countryman Salvador Perez was honored as MLB’s Roberto Clemente Award winner. Carrasco told reporters that he has begun his offseason training regimen and hopes to pitch for two more seasons (X link via Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com).
The veteran right-hander turns 38 in March. Pitching two more seasons would take him near his 40th birthday. Carrasco elected minor league free agency after the Guardians were eliminated from the AL Championship Series. He’d have gotten to the open market five days after the conclusion of the World Series anyhow since he has well over six years of MLB service.
Carrasco is almost certainly looking at a minor league deal for the second straight offseason. The longtime Cleveland hurler rejoined the organization on a non-roster contract in January. He broke camp and locked in a $2MM base salary. Carrasco held a rotation spot for the majority of the season, making 21 starts and tossing 103 2/3 innings. That was enough to land him third on the team in workload, though his results weren’t impressive. Carrasco allowed 5.64 earned runs per nine with a middling 19.9% strikeout percentage. The Guardians ran him through outright waivers in September.
That marks consecutive subpar showings for the 15-year veteran. Carrasco also scuffled during his third and final season as a member of the Mets. Opponents tagged him for a 6.80 ERA over 90 innings in 2023. He owns a 6.18 ERA across 41 starts over the last two seasons. Carrasco still throws strikes and gets ground-balls at decent rates, but declining velocity has cost him whiffs and led to trouble keeping the ball in the park.
Submit Your Questions For This Week’s Episode Of The MLB Trade Rumors Podcast
On the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, we regularly answer questions from our readers and listeners. With the next episode set for Wednesday, we’re looking for MLBTR’s audience to submit their questions and we’ll pick a few to answer.
The World Series will be done within a week, meaning the offseason fun is about to begin. If you have a question about a past transaction, a look ahead to the winter or anything else baseball related, we’d love to hear from you! You can email your questions to mlbtrpod@gmail.com.
Also, if you want to hear your voice on the podcast, send us your question in audio form and we might play it. iPhone users can find instructions on how to do so here.
In the meantime, don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.
Avisail Garcia Undergoes Back Surgery
Outfielder Avisail Garcia underwent surgery to treat both a fracture and a disc issue in his lower back today, according to a report from The New York Post’s Jon Heyman. A timetable for his recovery was not provided.
The news comes just a few months after the Marlins decided to release the veteran outfielder partway through the third season of his four-year, $53MM deal with the club. It became clear almost immediately that the deal was a mistake on the part of the Marlins as Garcia’s first season in Miami saw him hit a paltry .224/.266/.317 (61 wRC+) in 380 trips to the plate. He spent nearly two months on the IL due to hamstring issues near the end of that year, and a combination of back and hamstring issues limited the veteran to just 169 trips to the plate over the next two seasons prior to his release.
Garcia had struggled badly throughout his limited time on the field over the past two seasons, as well. In those aforementioned 169 plate appearances, he struck out at a 30.8% clip while slashing just .203/.246/.335 (53 wRC+). Those ghastly numbers were certainly more than enough justification for the Marlins to move on from the veteran and dedicate his playing time to young players. With that being said, news of Garcia’s surgery provides an interesting bit of context to his deep struggles with the Marlins—particularly given the fact that he missed three months due to a back injury in 2023.
Given the amount of time Garcia spent on the IL during his tenure in Miami, it’s not hard to imagine his back and hamstring issues played a large role in his sudden decline. After all, the outfielder was coming off a strong platform season where he posted a 115 wRC+ and slugged 29 homers for the Brewers. On top of that, Garcia had a track record of solid production dating back half a decade at that point. After generally being a below average hitter early in his career, from 2017 to 2021 Garcia slashed .278/.335/.464 (113 wRC+) while oscillating between being roughly league average and above average with the bat depending on the year.
Garcia did not sign with another club this year following Miami’s decision to part ways with him, but it’s possible that news of his back surgery could lead to interest from clubs who wonder if he might be able to regain some of his old form if he’s now properly healthy. That’s likely a long-shot to come to pass with Garcia staring own his age-34 season after three straight unproductive campaigns, but it’s still feasible to imagine a club taking a no-risk minor league flier on him this offseason. If Garcia were to make an MLB roster next year, his new club would only be on the hook for a pro-rated portion of the big league minimum while the Marlins pay out his $12MM salary for 2025.
Submit Your Questions For This Week’s Episode Of The MLBTR Podcast
On the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, we regularly answer questions from our readers and listeners. With the next episode set for Wednesday, we’re looking for MLBTR’s audience to submit their questions and we’ll pick a few to answer.
The 2024 World Series matchup is now set, with the offseason just over the horizon. If you have a question about a past transaction, a look ahead to the winter or anything else baseball related, we’d love to hear from you! You can email your questions to mlbtrpod@gmail.com.
Also, if you want to hear your voice on the podcast, send us your question in audio form and we might play it. iPhone users can find instructions on how to do so here.
In the meantime, don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.
Submit Your Questions For This Week’s Episode Of The MLBTR Podcast
On the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, we regularly answer questions from our readers and listeners. With the next episode set for Wednesday, we’re looking for MLBTR’s audience to submit their questions and we’ll pick a few to answer.
The 2024 postseason is well underway, with the offseason just over the horizon. If you have a question about a past transaction, a look ahead to the winter or anything else baseball related, we’d love to hear from you! You can email your questions to mlbtrpod@gmail.com.
Also, if you want to hear your voice on the podcast, send us your question in audio form and we might play it. iPhone users can find instructions on how to do so here.
In the meantime, don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.