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Submit Your Questions For A Mailbag Episode Of The MLB Trade Rumors Podcast!

By Darragh McDonald | April 22, 2024 at 1:08pm CDT

On the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, we’ll frequently answer questions from our readers and listeners. With the offseason news now firmly in the rearview mirror and the trade deadline still months away, the current baseball news is mostly about on-the-field results and injuries.

We’ll use this liminal space to try to answer as many listener questions as possible. If you have a question about the ongoing 2024 season or anything else related to baseball, we’d love to hear from you!  You can send your questions to mlbtrpod@gmail.com.

Also, if you want to hear your voice on the podcast, send us your question in audio form and we might play it.  iPhone users can find instructions on how to do so here.

In the meantime, don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

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Submit Your Questions For This Week’s MLB Trade Rumors Podcast!

By Darragh McDonald | April 15, 2024 at 10:47am CDT

On the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, we’ll frequently answer questions from our readers and listeners.  With the next episode set for Wednesday, we’re looking for MLBTR’s audience to submit their questions and we’ll pick a few to answer.

MLBTR will be publishing the first edition of our Free Agent Power Rankings for the 2024-25 offseason this week. If you have a question about that or the ongoing 2024 season or anything else related to baseball, we’d love to hear from you!  You can send your questions to mlbtrpod@gmail.com.

Also, if you want to hear your voice on the podcast, send us your question in audio form and we might play it.  iPhone users can find instructions on how to do so here.

In the meantime, don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

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Julio Urías Charged With Five Misdemeanors In Relation To 2023 Arrest

By Darragh McDonald | April 9, 2024 at 4:24pm CDT

Left-hander Julio Urías has been charged with five misdemeanors by the Los Angeles City Attorney’s office, per Jack Harris and Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times, stemming from his 2023 arrest.

The charges include one count of spousal battery, two counts of domestic battery involving dating relationship, one count of false imprisonment and one count of assault. There is an arraignment scheduled for May 2.

Urías was arrested in early September of last year and charged with “corporal injury on a spouse” after an alleged altercation occurred outside BMO Stadium in downtown Los Angeles following a Major League Soccer game between LAFC and Inter Miami. He was still a member of the Dodgers at that time but just a few weeks away from free agency. He was placed on administrative leave by MLB in the days following his reported arrest.

It was reported in December that the Los Angeles District Attorney’s office was looking into the matter. In January, their report found that Urías “pushed his wife against a fence and pulled her by the hair or shoulders” but stated that “neither the Victim’s injuries nor the Defendant’s criminal history justify a felony filing.” They forwarded the matter to the City Attorney’s Office to determine whether misdemeanor charges were warranted, which has resulted in the five charges reported on today.

Major League Baseball can impose discipline even in the absence of criminal charges under the Joint Domestic Violence policy with the Players Association. Urías was previously suspended for 20 games for violating the policy in 2019 even though no charges were laid at that time. If he were to receive a second suspension under that policy, he would be the first player to do so, though the league will likely wait until the City Attorney’s case is complete before making their decision.

“Our investigation is ongoing,” an MLB spokesman said to the L.A. Times on Tuesday. “We have no further comment.”

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MLB, MLBPA In Dispute Over Pitch Clock’s Impact On Injuries

By Anthony Franco | April 8, 2024 at 11:10am CDT

One of the unfortunately defining storylines of Spring Training and the first couple weeks of the regular season has been the prevalence of significant injuries to key pitchers. While that is a concern every year — particularly early in the schedule as players build their arms back up — the number of big names suffering arm injuries led the league and Players Association to trade barbs over the weekend.

On Saturday, the players union put out a brief statement (on X) that implied the pitch clock was a key contributing factor:

“Despite unanimous player opposition and significant concerns regarding health and safety, the commissioner’s office reduced the length of the pitch clock last December, just one season removed from imposing the most significant rule change in decades,” MLBPA executive director Tony Clark said. “Since then, our concerns about the health impacts of reduced recovery time have only intensified. The league’s unwillingness thus far to acknowledge or study the effects of these profound changes is an unprecedented threat to our game and its most valuable asset — the players.”

This is the second season in which the pitch clock has been in use at the major league level. In 2023, pitchers had 15 seconds between pitches when no runner was on base and 20 seconds to begin their delivery with runners aboard. Over the winter, the competition committee passed a rule change cutting the latter time from 20 to 18 seconds. That measure was approved by the six league representatives on the rule committee; all four players on the panel voted against it. The MLBPA released a statement at the time calling the changes “unnecessary” and saying the 2024 season “should be used to gather additional data and fully examine the health, safety and injury impacts of reduced recovery time.”

Unsurprisingly, MLB quickly fired back after Clark’s latest protestation. The league argued that there has been no empirical backing pointing to the clock as a contributing factor to pitcher injuries. MLB instead suggested the main issue is the increased stress which pitchers are putting on their arms to improve the quality of their arsenals.

“(The MLBPA’s) statement ignores the empirical evidence and much more significant long-term trend, over multiple decades, of velocity and spin increases that are highly correlated with arm injuries,” the league said in a statement of its own. “Nobody wants to see pitchers get hurt in this game, which is why MLB is currently undergoing a significant comprehensive research study into the causes of this long-term increase, interviewing prominent medical experts across baseball which to date has been consistent with an independent analysis by Johns Hopkins University that found no evidence to support that the introduction of the pitch clock has increased injuries.

In fact, JHU found no evidence that pitchers who worked quickly in 2023 were more likely to sustain an injury than those who worked less quickly on average. JHU also found no evidence that pitchers who sped up their pace were more likely to sustain an injury than those who did not.”

Concerns about pitcher health are an annual event, although there hasn’t been much consensus about which factors are more responsible than others. Last month, noted orthopedic surgeon Dr. Keith Meister told Ken Rosenthal and Eno Sarris of the Athletic that he considered the sweeping breaking ball and power changeup to be problems, pointing to the tighter grip that pitchers use on those offerings. A few players and other injury experts pushed back against Meister’s hypothesis, arguing that increased effort to maximize velocity (on both the fastball and breaking stuff) was the more notable driver.

Whatever the case, there’s no doubt that pitcher injuries have been a major story in recent weeks. Gerrit Cole (elbow inflammation), Lucas Giolito (internal brace surgery), Eduardo Rodriguez (lat strain), Anthony DeSclafani (flexor tendon surgery) and Trevor Stephan (Tommy John surgery) were among the pitchers to suffer notable injuries during Spring Training. Giolito, DeSclafani and Stephan underwent season-ending surgery before Opening Day.

Since the season began, Eury Pérez, Shane Bieber and Jonathan Loáisiga have all been lost for the year due to elbow ligament repairs of their own. Things are still up in the air for Braves ace Spencer Strider, who landed on the injured list over the weekend after imaging revealed UCL damage in his elbow.

It’s not an issue for which there are simple solutions. Justin Verlander, who has been one of the preeminent workhorses of his generation but lost the 2021 season to a Tommy John procedure, discussed the issue over the weekend. Verlander, on a minor league rehab stint to build up after a seemingly minor bout of shoulder soreness, pointed to a confluence of factors (relayed by Ari Alexander of KPRC 2).

While he noted “it would be easiest to … blame the pitch clock,” the three-time Cy Young winner spoke about pitchers’ desire to maximize their swing-and-miss acumen even if it comes with a higher chance of injury. Verlander pointed to the increase in home runs over the past few seasons and teams’ heavier reliance on their bullpens — which he acknowledged is supported by data indicating that relievers tend to be more effective than a starter navigating a lineup for the third or fourth time — as reasons for pitchers to avoid pitching to contact. Those interested in the subject should check out the veteran righty’s thoughtful response in full.

Team decision-makers also need to wrestle with the balance between protecting their most talented pitchers without sapping their effectiveness. That’s an inexact science for medical and coaching staffs. Mariners manager Scott Servais pointed to the early-season spate of injuries as a factor in pulling young righty Bryce Miller at 78 pitches after seven scoreless innings in a win over the Brewers on Saturday (link via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times).

Servais cited a desire to minimize the amount of potentially high-stress innings that Miller faces early in the season as one of a number of variables in making what seemed to be an atypically quick call to the bullpen. That’s just one example, of course, but it’s illustrative of the kind of concerns which front offices and coaching staffs face as they try to keep their best pitchers healthy.

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Submit Your Questions For This Week’s MLB Trade Rumors Podcast!

By Darragh McDonald | April 1, 2024 at 7:55pm CDT

On the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, we’ll frequently answer questions from our readers and listeners.  With the next episode set for Wednesday, we’re looking for MLBTR’s audience to submit their questions and we’ll pick a few to answer.

The 2024 MLB season is upon us! If you have a question about a recent transaction, a future transaction or anything else related to baseball, we’d love to hear from you!  You can send your questions to mlbtrpod@gmail.com.

Also, if you want to hear your voice on the podcast, send us your question in audio form and we might play it.  iPhone users can find instructions on how to do so here.

In the meantime, don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

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Brandon Belt “Baffled” By Lack Of Offers In Free Agency

By Leo Morgenstern | March 29, 2024 at 11:11pm CDT

Two days into the regular season, only one position player from MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list remains unsigned: designated hitter/first baseman Brandon Belt. On Friday, the veteran slugger discussed his enduring free agency in an appearance on The JD Bunkis Podcast. According to Belt, he had very few calls with teams this winter that went further than the teams expressing loose interest. He never got to the point of “talking about money” with any clubs.

Belt suggests that numerous teams considered him a second-choice option if they were unable to land their first choice on a longer-term deal. In the end, he says “pretty much every one” of those teams “got their guy.” He could be referring to the Giants, who signed Jorge Soler to a three-year deal, or the Mariners, who signed Mitch Garver to a two-year contract. Several other teams signed designated hitters to one-year deals this offseason, including the Diamondbacks (Joc Pederson), the Mets (J.D. Martinez), and the Blue Jays (Justin Turner).

The Rangers were one team that reportedly discussed signing Belt, but evidently, they never reached the point of making him an offer. That surely has something to do with top prospect Wyatt Langford earning a spot on the Opening Day roster, but still, Texas could have considered Belt for the spot that ultimately went to non-roster invitee Jared Walsh. Two more teams that seemed like potential fits for Belt also opted to sign veterans on minor league deals instead: the Blue Jays went with Daniel Vogelbach, while the Angels added Miguel Sano.

Although Belt “definitely” wants to play in 2024 (per Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic), he told Bunkis that he didn’t want to settle for a minor league contract. He made $9.3 million last season, and it’s safe to say he outperformed the Blue Jays’ expectations when they offered him that deal. It’s reasonable to presume he was hoping for a raise. Instead, he will almost certainly have to settle for a sizeable pay cut, if and when he eventually signs. To that point, Belt mentioned how different his free agent experience was during the 2022-23 offseason. He says it was “pretty easy” to land a contract because “quite a few teams” were interested in his services. That couldn’t be further from the case this time around.

Belt says the whole experience has “baffled [him] a little bit,” and it’s not hard to see why. The left-handed hitter is coming off an excellent season with Toronto in which he hit 19 home runs in just 103 games. He also hit 23 doubles and drew 61 walks over 404 plate appearances. Only seven AL batters (min. 400 PA) outproduced his .858 OPS and 138 wRC+. His .336 expected wOBA was more good than great, and he’s likely due for some regression as he enters his late thirties. Still, plenty of teams would be better off with his experienced lefty bat on their roster.

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Submit Your Questions For This Week’s MLB Trade Rumors Podcast!

By Darragh McDonald | March 25, 2024 at 10:05am CDT

On the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, we’ll frequently answer questions from our readers and listeners.  With the next episode set for Wednesday, we’re looking for MLBTR’s audience to submit their questions and we’ll pick a few to answer.

The 2024 MLB season is upon us! If you have a question about a recent transaction, a future transaction or anything else related to baseball, we’d love to hear from you!  You can send your questions to mlbtrpod@gmail.com.

Also, if you want to hear your voice on the podcast, send us your question in audio form and we might play it.  iPhone users can find instructions on how to do so here.

In the meantime, don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

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Offseason In Review: Chicago White Sox

By Tim Dierkes | March 19, 2024 at 11:20pm CDT

In his first offseason as White Sox GM, Chris Getz made four key trades and a series of small free agent deals as the team enters another rebuilding phase.

Major League Signings

  • Erick Fedde, SP: two years, $15MM
  • John Brebbia, RP: one year, $5.5MM (including buyout of 2025 mutual option)
  • Martin Maldonado, C: one year, $4.25MM (including buyout of 2025 club option)
  • Tim Hill, RP: one year, $1.8MM
  • Paul DeJong, SS: one year, $1.75MM
  • Chris Flexen, SP: one year, $1.75MM

2024 spending: $20.8MM
Total spending: $30.05MM

Options Exercised

  • None

Trades and Claims

  • Claimed RP Alex Speas off waivers from Rangers
  • Acquired SP Mike Soroka, SP Jared Shuster, IF Nicky Lopez, IF Braden Shewmake, and SP Riley Gowens from Braves for RP Aaron Bummer
  • Selected SP Shane Drohan from Red Sox in Rule 5 draft
  • Acquired C Max Stassi and $6.26MM from Braves for a player to be named later
  • Acquired cash from Mets for RP Yohan Ramirez
  • Acquired OF Dominic Fletcher from Angels for SP Cristian Mena
  • Acquired RP Prelander Berroa, OF Zach DeLoach, and 2024 Competitive Balance Round B draft pick for RP Gregory Santos
  • Claimed OF Peyton Burdick off waivers from Orioles.  Later claimed back by Orioles off waivers
  • Acquired RP Bailey Horn from Cubs for SP Matt Thompson
  • Acquired SP Drew Thorpe, SP Jairo Iriarte, OF Samuel Zavala, and RP Steven Wilson from Padres for Dylan Cease

Notable Minor League Signings

  • Joe Barlow, Jesse Chavez, Brad Keller, Corey Knebel, Chad Kuhl, Dominic Leone, Bryan Shaw, Danny Mendick, Mike Moustakas, Rafael Ortega, Brett Phillips, Kevin Pillar

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

  • Dylan Cease, Tim Anderson, Mike Clevinger, Gregory Santos, Aaron Bummer, Liam Hendriks, Elvis Andrus, Yasmani Grandal, Clint Frazier, Trayce Thompson

Back in October, I was skeptical of White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf saying, “We want to get better as fast as we possibly can,” as part of the justification for hiring internal GM candidate Chris Getz without conducting outside interviews.  It was just too tall of an order for a team that lacked talent and has an owner averse to big free agent contracts.  Based on the moves Getz ended up making in his first offseason as GM, a quick turnaround and 2024 contention were never actually the goals.

Given Liam Hendriks’ August Tommy John surgery, the White Sox chose to decline his $15MM option for 2024, instead triggering a buyout in the same amount that will be paid out over the next decade.  The club also declined their $14MM club option on Tim Anderson, paying a $1MM buyout after finding no takers via trade.  This outcome was unsurprising after Anderson’s abysmal 2023.  The White Sox opted for a cheap defensive-minded veteran replacement at shortstop, signing free agent Paul DeJong in November.  Anderson’s eight-year White Sox career officially ended when he inked a $5MM deal with the Marlins in February.

Though Getz chose to retain manager Pedro Grifol, the Sox did turn over the coaching staff early in the offseason, bringing in Marcus Thames as hitting coach and also adding Grady Sizemore, Drew Butera, Matt Wise, and Jason Bourgeois.  Getz also dropped this memorable line to the media: “I don’t like our team.”

Getz would go on to back up that statement by giving the White Sox a major makeover.  The first strike happened in mid-November, with reliever Aaron Bummer getting shipped to Atlanta for a five-player package.  Taking advantage of Chicago’s lack of depth, four of the five players acquired were on the 40-man roster.  It was a whole lot of players the Braves didn’t need.  The biggest name, Mike Soroka, may have otherwise wound up non-tendered.  But as a $3MM flier for a threadbare White Sox rotation, Soroka fits.  Shuster provides another backend rotation candidate; he’ll start the season at Triple-A.  Given that Bummer was coming off a 6.79 ERA and rebuilding teams don’t have much need for decently-compensated relievers anyway, sending him off for depth pieces was a solid first trade for Getz.

The White Sox’s biggest free agent offseason expenditure came during the Winter Meetings with the signing of Erick Fedde.  The former Nationals top prospect, now 31, rejuvenated his career in South Korea in 2023.  Now he’s a key part of Chicago’s rotation.  The Fedde signing seems like a reasonable play for innings, with a hint of upside for a sub-4.00 ERA season.  This is very much a Rotation of Opportunity in 2024.  Perhaps nothing demonstrates that better than Garrett Crochet getting the Opening Day nod.  As James Fegan noted at Sox Machine, Crochet has 73 big league innings to his name, “it’s his first time back in [the starting pitcher] routine since essentially his sophomore year of college, and Tommy John surgery rehab and a shoulder strain didn’t make 2023 a typical platform year from the bullpen.”

A veteran backup catcher was on Getz’s shopping list this winter, given the inexperience of Korey Lee and Edgar Quero.  He found one in another deal with the Braves, who were serving as a way station for Max Stassi.  The White Sox are only on the hook for $740K of Stassi’s $7MM salary this year, so he makes for a low-risk addition.  Several weeks later, the White Sox inked Martin Maldonado to a one-year deal, possibly stifling an opportunity for Lee or Quero assuming Stassi sticks.  Logically, if one of the young catchers seems ready this summer, one or both veterans will be traded.

In January, news came that Reinsdorf is seeking a new stadium for the White Sox in the South Loop.  Everything so far has been standard: a request for over a billion dollars in public money, promises of an economic boom around a new stadium, questionable reasoning about why the current stadium won’t work, and a vague threat that the team could be moved.  All of this is outside the scope of our Offseason In Review series, but the ballpark situation figures to hang over the team for the foreseeable future.

In February, Getz added Dominic Fletcher in a trade with the Diamondbacks, hopefully filling the Sox’s long-standing right field vacancy in the process.  Fletcher, 26, hit well in limited action as a rookie with Arizona last year.  Coming into the 2023 season, Baseball America rated Fletcher as a 40-grade prospect with a strong glove and a “line-drive swing with average bat speed.”  Projection systems suggest Fletcher’s bat is not currently MLB-caliber, despite his brief success in ’23.  Still, the bar is astoundingly low here, as the White Sox haven’t had their primary right fielder post a 1-WAR season since Avisail Garcia in 2017.  Fletcher may have the right field job out of the gate, though minor league signing Kevin Pillar will likely be lurking as his potential platoon partner or backup.

The Fletcher addition fits with Getz’s stated goal of improving the team’s defense.  Aside from Fletcher, the Sox have improved up the middle with DeJong, Nicky Lopez, and Maldonado.  Groundballers like Fedde and Soroka should appreciate that, and defense is generally much cheaper on the market than offense.  Of course, a tradeoff has been made, as offensive expectations for Fletcher, DeJong, Lopez, and Maldonado are quite low.

On the same day as the Fletcher trade, Getz dealt his best reliever, Gregory Santos, to the Mariners for Prelander Berroa, Zach DeLoach, and the #69 pick in this year’s draft.  The two prospects project as a potential setup man and a fourth outfielder if things go well, and the draft pick will further boost organizational depth.  With dim prospects in the short-term, trading away relievers for quality prospects is usually a good move.  DeLoach may not have the ideal arm for right field, but as a 25-year-old who played 138 games at Triple-A last year, he could push Fletcher for playing time this year.

Of course, those departures leave the White Sox with one of the game’s shakiest-looking bullpens.  New additions Steven Wilson, John Brebbia, and Tim Hill will see high-leverage work.  The idea of Michael Kopech in the rotation seems to have been abandoned, and the once-highly-regarded righty will try to find success in relief.

Dylan Cease was the undercurrent of Getz’s entire offeason.  With two years of control remaining, Cease was seemingly shopped all winter.  Getz waited out the acquisitions of Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Lucas Giolito, Chris Sale, Shota Imanaga, Marcus Stroman, and Corbin Burnes, all pitchers who had crossover with Cease’s market.  Blake Snell didn’t reach an agreement until March 18th, and as of this writing Jordan Montgomery remains available.  The Dodgers, Braves, Cardinals, Reds, Yankees, Mets, Mariners, Orioles, and Rangers were linked to Cease at various points, but it was the Padres who swooped in to make a late deal on March 13th.

As I wrote in my subscriber-only mailbag last week, comparing the trade to the handful of rare precedents, I like the deal for the White Sox.  Aside from Wilson, something of a throw-in, Getz acquired three prospects graded 50 or 55 for Cease.  Looking at deals made for James Paxton, Joe Musgrove, and Gerrit Cole, teams generally fell short of that return.

Without Cease, the White Sox rotation has the potential to be awful.  RosterResource currently projects Crochet, Fedde, Soroka, Chris Flexen, and Nick Nastrini as the starting five.  Drew Thorpe, perhaps the key piece in the Cease trade, has a great opportunity here, but did not help his short-term chances with yesterday’s spring training outing.  The projected White Sox rotation has produced exactly two good Major League seasons to date: Soroka’s 4-WAR effort in 2019, and Flexen’s 3-WAR 2021.

Trading Cease is something of a concession the White Sox are not going to be good in 2024 or 2025.  They’re projected to win 66 games this year, and it’s hard to see them leaping into contention in ’25.  Luis Robert may be at peak value coming off a healthy 5-WAR season, and he’s controlled through 2027.  A case could be made that if his performance is largely irrelevant on bad teams in ’24 and ’25, and the team might just be turning the corner in ’26, the optimal move is to cash him in now for the maximum return.  But the White Sox probably don’t see their timeline that way, and keeping Robert simply as a reason to watch the team is defensible.

Should the White Sox be taking advantage of their low payroll this year to try to add prospect capital?  In a mailbag earlier this month, I explored the concept of sign-and-flips by non-contending teams, and we found success stories to be pretty rare in practice.  As Anthony Franco put it, “If the guy was any good, he wasn’t signing a low-base MLB deal with a non-contender.”  So you might suggest the White Sox should’ve landed one-year free agents like Teoscar Hernandez or Luis Severino with a mind toward flipping them, but those players might not have been interested.

Overall, this was a good first offseason for Getz, who traded three of his more marketable players aside from Robert and got respectable returns.  It’s likely he’ll continue to listen on Eloy Jimenez and would trade Yoan Moncada if he has any kind of resurgence.  As far as the season ahead, it’s going to be ugly.

 

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Submit Your Questions For This Week’s MLB Trade Rumors Podcast!

By Darragh McDonald | March 18, 2024 at 10:30am CDT

On the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, we’ll frequently answer questions from our readers and listeners.  With the next episode set for Wednesday, we’re looking for MLBTR’s audience to submit their questions and we’ll pick a few to answer.

Regular season baseball will arrive this week and all teams will have started their season by the end of next week but the offseason business is not yet completed with plenty of notable free agents still unsigned. If you have a question about a recent transaction, a future transaction or anything else related to the offseason or upcoming season, we’d love to hear from you!  You can send your questions to mlbtrpod@gmail.com.

Also, if you want to hear your voice on the podcast, send us your question in audio form and we might play it.  iPhone users can find instructions on how to do so here.

In the meantime, don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

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Latest On Michael Lorenzen’s Market

By Anthony Franco | March 14, 2024 at 11:07pm CDT

With Opening Day less than two weeks off, Michael Lorenzen stands as arguably the #3 starting pitcher on the free agent market. The White Sox and Yankees have reportedly shown recent interest in the 32-year-old righty, but he evidently has yet to find a deal to his liking.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that Lorenzen has declined contract offers in the $5-7MM range. It’s not clear which teams made those proposals or how recently Lorenzen’s camp passed. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported last week that the 6’3″ hurler had been holding out for a two-year pact.

It’s therefore not surprising that Lorenzen turned down what were presumably one-year offers at fairly modest salaries. He’s coming off his first All-Star nod and tallied a career-high 153 innings between the Tigers and Phillies last season. He looked on his way to a strong multi-year pact by the middle of August. After no-hitting the Nationals on August 9, he carried a 3.23 ERA in 20 starts. Lorenzen was never likely to maintain that kind of run prevention unless he improved upon a modest 19.4% strikeout rate, but few would have anticipated how badly his final six weeks would go.

Lorenzen allowed 30 runs (27 earned) in his final 30 1/3 frames. His already modest strikeout percentage dropped another seven points, while his previously strong walk rate jumped to 10.3%. The Phillies moved him to relief at the end of the regular season and didn’t lean heavily on him during the playoffs. That poor finish has seemingly led to a disconnect between how teams project Lorenzen and the kind of contract he expected to command heading into the winter.

Despite the rough conclusion, Lorenzen’s season ERA sat at a respectable 4.18 in 29 outings. His camp presumably viewed recent two-year guarantees inked by the likes of Ross Stripling ($25MM), Drew Smyly ($19MM), Jordan Lyles ($17MM) and KBO returnee Erick Fedde ($15MM) as comparison points. Innings eaters Kyle Gibson ($13MM) and Lance Lynn ($11MM) signed one-year pacts early this offseason that pushed past eight figures.

The offers which Lorenzen declined value him below those other pitchers. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, five starting pitchers have signed one-year guarantees between $3MM and $9MM this offseason. Each of Wade Miley, Alex Wood, Martín Pérez, James Paxton and Jakob Junis landed in the $7MM – $8.5MM range.

Lorenzen himself has fallen in that category in each of his previous two free agent trips. He signed for $6.75MM with the Angels over the 2021-22 offseason. Last year, he inked an $8.5MM deal with the Tigers. Lorenzen has sought to move past that tier on the heels of a stronger platform season than the ones that preceded his last two free agent stints. It’s not known if that might’ve been achievable earlier in the offseason, but it seems he’s facing a tight market as many teams are at or near the payroll with which they’re willing to open the season.

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    Rangers Option Josh Jung

    Kevin Pillar Announces Retirement

    Braves Place Spencer Schwellenbach On IL With Elbow Fracture

    Giants Exercise 2026 Option On Manager Bob Melvin

    Yordan Alvarez Shut Down Due To Setback With Hand Injury

    Astros Place Jeremy Peña On Injured List With Fractured Rib

    Tucker Barnhart To Retire

    Tyler Mahle To Be Sidelined Beyond Trade Deadline

    Reds Release Jeimer Candelario

    Dave Parker Passes Away

    Griffin Canning Diagnosed With Ruptured Achilles

    Pirates Reportedly Have Very Few Untouchable Players At Trade Deadline

    Recent

    Buddy Kennedy Elects Free Agency

    Giants Place Erik Miller On IL, Select Scott Alexander

    Yankees Sign Jeimer Candelario To Minor League Deal

    Giants Activate Matt Chapman, DFA Sergio Alcantara

    Nationals Reinstate Mason Thompson From 60-Day IL

    Bobby Jenks Passes Away

    Rangers To Sign Rowdy Tellez To Minor League Deal

    Yankees Likely To Promote Cam Schlittler

    Astros Sign Hector Neris

    Dodgers Not Planning To Add Third Base Help Before Deadline

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