Toronto President & CEO Mark Shapiro Speaks On Takeaways From Postseason, Job Rumors, Game Evolution
President and CEO of the Toronto Blue Jays Mark Shapiro covered a variety of topics while speaking with Arden Zwelling and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca (audio link). Shapiro provides insight into evolutions within the game, the process of identifying talent, and the breakdown of responsibility in front offices. He also speaks in-depth about the process of player development as the best opportunity for gaining a competitive advantage.
He uses the Washington Nationals and their recent pennant victory to examine some of these team-building strategies in context. He starts by citing the all-important playoff axiom: “Just get in.” It’s interesting that Shapiro notes this as a point of contention for him throughout his career, as common baseball discourse stalls on this idea every trading season in divvying up baseball’s 30 organizations into buy/sell/hold buckets.
Those in the “anything can happen once you’re in” camp haven taken a hit as recent postseasons have gone chalk. The last three World Series champions were hardly long shots: 103-win Cubs, 101-win Astros, and 108-win Red Sox. The Nats, in fact, are the first Wild Card team to make the World Series since the 2014 Wild Card showdown that featured two second-place clubs playing on the game’s biggest stage. That season, the 88-win San Francisco Giants defeated the 89-win Kansas City Royals in 7 games.
The “imperfect” Nationals check a couple of boxes on Shapiro’s postseason team wish list: frontline starting pitching and players in a variety of career stages. Shapiro has “always been a big believer in looking at the different segments of the player population and feeling like when you’re ready to win you need representation from all three.” Young cores rising through farm systems together has been the en vogue team-building philosophy after the success of Chicago, Houston, and Boston, but to Shapiro’s point, the Nationals are succeeding with a mix of young, mid-prime, and veteran players.
The Nats field not only the oldest players in baseball – reliever Fernando Rodney – but they field the oldest roster in baseball with an average age of 31.1 years old. Veterans like Max Scherzer, Howie Kendrick and Ryan Zimmerman have keyed their postseason success. True to Shapiro’s “need to have a balance,” however, the engine of this Nats roster is their young superstar duo of Juan Soto, 20, and Victor Robles, 22. The steadiest production will usually come from those players in their prime, Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, and Stephen Strasburg are some of the players that qualify for the Nats. Shapiro sees all three brackets as vital to team success: energy from the youth, reliability from those in their prime, and the strongest desire to win coming from those veteran players.
The full podcast is worth a listen, as Shapiro speaks directly to rumors about different job opportunities. Notably, he listens to all inquiries, but he has not been interviewing for outside opportunities. Given his comments here and before, Shapiro continues to be a good candidate for an extension this winter.
Tim Bogar To Interview For Mets Managerial Opening
FRIDAY: Bogar is indeed getting an interview, Heyman tweets.
WEDNESDAY: According to a tweet from Jon Heyman of MLB Network, Tim Bogar, first base coach for the Nationals, is under consideration for the open Mets managerial seat (link). It is not clear if Bogar has interviewed for the position, but Barry Svrugla of the Washington Post confirms that Bogar is “involved to some degree” with New York (link).
Being that third base coach Bob Henley was linked to the Padres opening today, it seems the World Series-bound Nats are in danger of having their coaching table rightly pillaged by the rest of the league. Bogar, for his part, offers a pretty sterling resumé, as far as coaches go. The 52-year-old, Chicago-bred baseball man has worked on the coaching staffs of managerial big-shots like Joe Maddon, Terry Francona, Bobby Valentine, and Ron Washington. He earned the opportunity to serve as Texas’ interim manager in 2014 after Washington stepped down, leading the Rangers to a 14-8 record in the season’s final month. Bogar also has spent a little time as a front office assistant to Jerry DiPoto while the latter was in Anaheim, and, of course, logged a 700-game playing career that began with–you guessed it–the Mets.
If interviewed, Bogar would become the seventh man to sit down with New York brass since Mickey Callaway was dismissed on Oct 3. To this point, Diamondbacks player development director Mike Bell, Yankees assistant Carlos Beltran, former MLB manager Joe Girardi, ESPN analyst Eduardo Perez, Twins bench coach Derek Shelton, and Mets quality control coach Luis Rojas have been reported as Mets interviewees.
NL Notes: Rockies, Strasburg, Scherzer, Espada
Thomas Harding of MLB.com confirms that the Rockies have dismissed several minor league coaches, including longtime Triple-A manager Glenallen Hill (link). Double-A hitting coach Lee Stevens and Single-A hitting coach Norberto Martin will also be let go, according to assistant general manager of player development Zach Wilson.
A member of the club’s coaching ranks since 2004, Hill was previously first base coach with Colorado’s big league squad from 2007 to 2012. The 54-year-old Santa Cruz native played for the Jays, Indians, Cubs, Giants, Yankees, and Angels over the course of a twelve-year MLB career. After Hill’s dismissal, top Colorado third base prospect Colton Welker figures to suit up for a fresh face at Triple-A Colorado Springs next season.
More notes from around the National League…
- In another Rockies item, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post gives an eye toward the defensive improvements made in 2019 by catcher Tony Wolters–while also opining that the club should acquire a veteran backstop to lighten the workload of the light-hitting Wolters (link). As Saunders notes, Wolters, a former second baseman, was charged with just one error last season while throwing out 34% of would-be base stealers, a rate which trailed only J.T. Realmuto of the Phillies. Manager Bud Black, for one, told the Post this year that Wolters had turned himself into “one of the best defensive catchers in baseball”. Unfortunately, the value-added performance hasn’t translated to the plate for the 27-year-old San Diego native, as his .239/.327/.324 line in parts of four seasons would indicate. Weighted runs created plus, which discounts the effect of his offensively friendly Coors Field home, pegs Wolters with a 59 wRC+ in that same timeframe, profiling him as one of the weakest-hitting regulars in the sport. For this reason, Saunders posits that finding a platoon partner for the lefty-swinging Wolters will be a high priority for Rockies GM Jeff Bridich this winter.
- Two notes on Nationals players, one bullet point–efficiency reigns here at MLBTR. First up is a piece from MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince, who, in creating a list of eight potential opt-out candidates this offseason, posits that any possibility of Stephen Strasburg opting-in to the remaining four years and $100MM on his contract has been “totally erased” this postseason (link). This seems a good time to supply a standard public service announcement regarding small sample size caveats, as recent history would suggest that postseason performance does not affect free agency decisions as frequently as many would expect. Still, Castrovince might not exactly be going out on a limb RE: Strasberg. While the pitcher’s injury concerns–evidenced best by his team’s decision to hold him out of the 2012 playoffs–have loomed over him for most of his career, Strasberg’s 1.64 ERA across 22 postseason innings this year has arguably gone some way toward ameliorating that fragile rap.
In a piece with fewer implications on the forthcoming hot stove, every baseball fan would be well-served to check out Rustin Dodd’s oral history regarding the college days of one Max Scherzer, published on The Athletic this morning (link). For Nats faithful feeling the afterglow of an NLCS sweep, hearing tales of some of Scherzer’s collegiate habits–including his ravenous affinity for Cici’s Pizza–should provide a giddy laugh. - A Houston source tells David Kaplan of NBC Chicago that Astros bench coach Joe Espada gave a “sensational” interview for the open Cubs manager job (link). Espada gave executive Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer “a lot to think about”, per Kaplan’s source, but the question still remains if Espada can surpass franchise favorite David Ross in consideration for the managerial opening. For the time being, Espada’s ‘Stros will square off with the Yankees in New York this evening for the fourth game of the ALCS.
MLBTR Poll: What Changed For The Nats?
We spend most of our time at this particular corner of the internet focused on payrolls and rosters. The tendency of contemporary baseball analysis is to seek value; to appreciate (in the full sense of the word) the role of fortune and the impossibility of predicting which players will come through in big moments.
But who among us doubts that some have icier veins, or hotter-burning competitive fires? Or that some leaders are better than others at spurring their charges to play at their best … or make the right decision in a key moment? We may not be able to make statistically valid assessments of these characteristics in advance, but it doesn’t feel especially bold to suggest that some players and some teams have more than just a lucky bounce of the ball to credit for their high-leverage triumphs.
That brings us to the topic of this morning’s poll: the Nationals, baseball’s perennial postseason underperformers, who just finished off a stirring run through the National League. You know the essentials of this tale already. The Nats’ four previous divisional series were exceptionally competitive, featuring mind-blowing twists and turns. All ended in defeat for the D.C. team, which always seemed to come up just short at the pivotal juncture.
Not so this time. The Nats came roaring back in the regular season after a dismal start. They returned from the brink of elimination in the Wild Card game against the Brewers, scraping together a comeback against one of the game’s most dominant short-appearance pitchers. They not only pushed the powerhouse Dodgers to a fifth game but won it, overcoming an early deficit and outshining L.A.’s stars in crunch time. And the Nationals finally put to rest their earliest postseason demons — those summoned by Yadi and co. back in 2012 — by thoroughly destroying the Cardinals in a four-game NLCS sweep.
It’s a talented roster, to be sure. But the recent-vintage Nats have never lacked in talent, stars and otherwise. What is actually different this time around? It’s nearly an impossible thing to analyze with any amount of scientific precision. But it’s an essential question to ponder for those that care about winning baseball championships.
I’ve compiled a few … theories, I guess we will call them. What say you? (Poll link for app users.)
How did the Nats flip the narrative?
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Ace trio ... Nats have always had great starting pitching, but not like this 32% (3,066)
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Bye-bye Bryce ... Harper was not the right star to lead this team 25% (2,337)
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Bounce of the ball ... you win some, you lose some; it's just their time 16% (1,549)
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Baby Shark 10% (928)
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Playing without fear ... they're finally an underdog 7% (698)
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Rizzo roster magic ... the GM finally got the right cast of stars and support players 7% (623)
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Davey did it ... the Nats finally have the right skipper in Martinez 3% (331)
Total votes: 9,532
Nationals’ Owner Lerner On Martinez, Rendon
The Nationals enter tonight’s NLCS Game 4 up 3-0 on St. Louis and turning the ball over to Patrick Corbin as they look to complete the sweep. Seeing as only one team has ever blown a 3-0 series lead in MLB history, it’s little surprise Nats’ managing principal owner Mark Lerner is happy with his team’s position. Lerner talked with reporters (including Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post and Mark Zuckerman of MASN) about his club’s “very special” position and fielded questions about the team’s manager and best player.
Interestingly, Lerner told reporters that firing manager Dave Martinez “never crossed (his) mind,” even amidst the club’s nightmarish start. Despite entering the year with high expectations, Washington started the season 19-31, leading to some speculation about Martinez’s future. After all, the Nationals have something of a reputation for being quick to pull the plug on managers. Martinez’s predecessor, Dusty Baker, wasn’t offered a contract extension after the 2017 season despite overseeing a division winner that year, with general manager Mike Rizzo saying at the time that “winning a lot of regular season games and winning divisions is not enough.” It stood to reason that Martinez could’ve been in some hot water after the club missed the playoffs in 2018 and got off to a slow start, so it’s interesting to hear that ownership was never considering a change.
Certainly, any speculation about Martinez’s job status has gone up in flames over the past few months. Washington’s spectacular second half got them to 93 wins regardless, and Martinez’s club is now on the doorstep of the franchise’s first pennant. That’s in no small part to the efforts of Anthony Rendon. The superstar third baseman put up borderline MVP numbers in the regular season, slashing .319/.412/.598 (154 wRC+) with his trademark elite defense at the hot corner. He’s picked up where he left off in the postseason, pairing with Juan Soto to form a two-man wrecking crew in the middle of the Nats’ order.
With Rendon a few weeks from becoming baseball’s most coveted position player free agent, Lerner predictably reiterated that the Nationals would love to keep him in D.C. “We certainly want to keep him. That’s 110 percent,” Lerner said of Rendon. “It’s really in Tony’s and his family’s hands at this point. They have to decide what they want to do. He’s earned that right as a free agent. It couldn’t happen to a better guy. We love him to death.”
“Good team wants to keep its best player” is hardly eye-popping news, and we know the Nats already floated an extension offer to the 29 year-old in the range of $210-215MM, although it’s possible deferrals could’ve held the contract’s actual value a bit below that figure. As Lerner acknowledged, though, there’s little reason for Rendon and his family not to explore their options in free agency at this point.
That’s not to say Rendon’s certainly leaving Washington; he’ll just assuredly speak with other teams as he and his family attempt to find their best fit. Lerner didn’t discuss specifically to what extent the organization would be willing to go to retain Rendon- in all likelihood, even the Nationals don’t know what their exact breaking point would be just yet- but it seems the club will be in the familiar position of lurking in the background while the face of their franchise tests the open market.
Nationals Notes: Rendon, Robles, Taylor
Here’s the latest from the Nationals, who take a 2-0 series lead into tomorrow’s Game Three of the NLCS….
- Could Anthony Rendon be open to the idea of a relatively short-term contract for a high average annual average? “Some friends of Rendon believe that he’s more interested in a shorter-term deal…because he might not be devoted to the idea of playing for as long as he possibly can,” ESPN’s Buster Olney writes, which Olney feels could make Rendon even more of an attractive target for a team like the Dodgers. Los Angeles reportedly had interest in such a short-term deal with Bryce Harper last winter, though such efforts fell short since Harper was specifically looking for a very long-term contract. A premium free agent like Rendon showing interest in only a very pricey deal of four or five years would be a fascinating wrinkle, as clubs would no longer have to worry about a late-30’s decline if Rendon is only under contract through his age-33 or age-34 season. (The third baseman turns 30 next June.) It could also create a ripple effect for future superstar free agents around the game, and the players’ union may also not be pleased at one of its top names taking what teams would certainly adopt as a precedent-setting model. Then again, Rendon’s agent Scott Boras has long aimed to garner maximum money at maximum years for his clients, and Rendon reportedly already turned down a seven-year extension offer from the Nats worth $210-$215MM.
- Victor Robles is expected to take part in batting practice and some running drills on Monday, manager Davey Martinez told reporters (including MASNsports.com’s Byron Kerr). Robles also did some running today and underwent treatment on his bothersome right hamstring, which was tweaked in Game Two of the NLDS. The injury has kept Robles out of action, though there is some optimism he will be able to return for Monday’s game. “I’m not going to anticipate anything until he comes in tomorrow. But he’s progressing and hopefully he will be ready tomorrow,” Martinez said.
- Robles will regain the regular center field job when he is ready to play, Martinez noted. This will send Michael A. Taylor back to the Nats’ bench, though Taylor has performed well (.300/.333/.450) in 21 plate appearances since filling in for Robles. It marked a nice turn-around for Taylor, the Washington Post’s Sam Fortier writes, as Taylor’s early-season struggles led to a demotion to Double-A, before he finally got his swing back on track in the final days of his minor league assignment. “I was finally able to get that feeling. I just tried to repeat over and over,” Taylor said about a hot streak that saw him post a 1.191 OPS over his last 52 PA in the minors. Though he was at one point a top prospect and seemed to be breaking out at the MLB level as recently as the 2017 season, Taylor has been inconsistent over his six big league seasons, but now stands as a very valuable bench asset as the Nationals continue their postseason run.
Nationals Notes: Hudson, Anibal
The Nationals achieved a 2-0 series lead over the Cardinals in the NLCS on Saturday, with the last out of their 3-1 victory being recorded by pitcher Daniel Hudson. It also marked the culmination of a whirlwind week for the righty Hudson, who caught a fair amount of flack for missing the team’s Game 1 matchup–despite the fact that his absence was a result of the birth of his third daughter. The modest firestorm surrounding Hudson’s prioritization of family values was, perhaps as much as anything, a reflection of how quickly social media can convert molehills into mountains in this day and age.
Hudson, at least, isn’t losing perspective on the situation, as he demonstrated to Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic (link). “I went from not having a job on March 21st to this huge national conversation on family values going into the playoffs,” Hudson explained to Ghiroli. “Life comes at you fast. Man, I don’t know how that happened and how I became the face for whatever conversation was going on.” Although it’s tempting for many to view ballplayers as mercenaries singularly focused on winning games, Hudson’s comments provide a reminder that the men of Major League Baseball are, first and foremost, men–with all of the same personal issues and considerations that the rest of us workaday humans also experience. We at MLBTR, for one, extend sincere congratulations to Hudson’s family on the birth of their new baby girl Millie. After settling for a $1.5MM guarantee from the Blue Jays last year, Hudson will hit the open market this offseason after pitching to a 2.47 ERA across 73 innings in 2019; it stands to reason that he should be able to secure a new guarantee that will leave plenty left over for diaper money.
More from the buzzing environment surrounding D.C.’s team…
- In another Ghiroli piece, the unique career of Anibal Sanchez is appreciated in the afterglow of his dominant Game 1 NLCS showing (link). As Ghiroli points out, Sanchez has operated in familiar territory in 2019–as the often-overlooked “fourth starter” operating behind a trio of fearsome frontline aces. During his time in Detroit, Sanchez was something of an afterthought in the shadow of three guys named Verlander, Price, and Scherzer, and he’s taken a similar position in D.C. as the elder statesman of a staff featuring Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, and Max Scherzer (again). If Sanchez was feeling bashful about not receiving shine in the leadup to this postseason, he didn’t show it on Friday: in a rousing performance that saw him deploy pitches anywhere from 66 to 93 mph, Sanchez became the first pitcher in LCS history to throw at least 7 2/3 innings and not allow more than one walk and a hit. Interestingly, Ghiroli notes that the pitcher nearly retired in the winter of 2018, even going so far as to tell his agent that he would hang up his spikes if he didn’t receive a contract offer by his birthday on Feb 27–the Twins eventually came calling with just a few days to spare, and the Nationals of 2019 are thankful that the rest might end up being postseason history.
NLCS Injury Updates: Suzuki, Gomes, Hudson, Robles
Kurt Suzuki has been questionable since a fastball from Walker Buehler glanced off his arm and into his forehead, prompting an early exit from game five of the NLDS. Still, Suzuki is ready to return for game two, and he’ll be behind the dish to catch Max Scherzer in St. Louis this afternoon, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. The Nationals are up 1-0 in the NLCS, but they’re not without questions heading into game two…
- Yan Gomes started more games during the regular season than Suzuki, and he only caught Anibal Sanchez twice during the first 162, but he put together a stellar game in Suzuki’s stead last night. Not only did Gomes guide Sanchez and Sean Doolittle in their one-hit effort, but he also reached base three times and knocked in the game’s first run. The Nationals will have a decision to make on Gomes in the offseason regarding a $9MM club option. Gomes was one of the NL’s worst offensive performers for an uncomfortably large chunk of the season, but he hit his stride late in September when an injury to Suzuki forced Gomes to be an every-down bellcow. Suzuki will return at age-37 to play a part in the Nats’ 2020 catching picture, but after 70 starts this season, it’s likely the Nats will again need someone to carry the brunt of the catching burden. Gomes clocked out with a .223/.316/.389 batting line with 12 home runs, but he better controls the run game than Suzuki and had better marks as a receiver overall. The Nats will have upwards of $100MM to play with this winter, so unless they have a clear upgrade in mind, there’s a decent chance they pick up that option heading into the offseason.
- Anibal Sanchez put his stamp on the NLCS in a big way last night, providing 7 ⅔ huge innings of one-hit ball for the Nationals. Cardinals hitters managed an average exit velocity of just 83.1 mph off of Sanchez on the night. The length provided by Sanchez was all the more crucial on a night when they were without their most integral reliever. That Daniel Hudson is a lynchpin reliever in the championship series is amazing in and of itself, but there was near panic in DC when it was announced he was to miss game one for the birth of his third child. It all worked out for the best – healthy baby girl, game one victory – and Hudson will be in St. Louis tonight to relieve his 9th-inning tag-team partner in Doolittle, who closed yesterday’s game with a four-out save. Crazy as this sounds, all but 2 of the 118 outs recorded in wins by the Nationals this postseason have come from Hudson, Doolittle, or the the Nats four-piece rotation, tweets Dougherty.
- Victor Robles may return to the lineup soon, per MLB.com’s Jamal Collier and Anne Rogers. He will not, however, be in the starting lineup for game two, tweets MASN’s Mark Zuckerman. Michael A. Taylor has been a surprisingly able replacement, though he did finally snap an 8-game postseason hitting streak with an 0-4 night in game one. Robles certainly provides more upside, and he’s arguably the best defensive centerfielder in baseball, but with so much of his game speed-dependent, there’s little reason to rush him back until his hamstring is healthy enough to be at full speed.
Nationals Announce NLCS Roster
The Nationals have released their roster for the club’s first-ever National League Championship Series. It contains a few wrinkles …
In particular, the team made some notable changes in the bullpen. Key late-inning righty Daniel Hudson will begin the series on paternity leave, replaced temporarily by Wander Suero. Once Hudson is ready to return to duty — he can take between one and three days — Suero will depart.
The Nats have made one series-long bullpen swap. Southpaw Roenis Elias, another important deadline pickup, is healthy enough to take part. He’ll be joined by Javy Guerra in a new middle-relief mix, with Hunter Strickland bumped out of the picture.
Here’s the full 25-man unit:
Right-Handed Pitchers
- Javy Guerra
- Tanner Rainey
- Fernando Rodney
- Anibal Sanchez (probable game 1 starter)
- Max Scherzer (probable game 2 starter)
- Stephen Strasburg
- Wander Suero
- Austin Voth
Left-Handed Pitchers
- Patrick Corbin
- Sean Doolittle
- Roenis Elias
Infielders
Outfielders
Catchers
With just eleven pitchers, the Nats are again going to be banking on heavy contributions from their starters. Voth will help provide length if there’s a need for a volume of relief innings. Strickland’s two poor innings in the NLDS sealed his fate. It’s still a bit surprising to see the Nats unwilling to rely upon Suero for more than a placeholding spot; he has been effective against hitters of both hands and carried strong peripherals, while Guerra was not terribly effective this year. Elias’s ability to contribute may be a key aspect of the Nationals’ ability to hang with the Cardinals late in tight games.
The approach does leave the club an exceptionally deep bench to work with, increasing the match-up possibilities for late innings. There’ll be bench bats, pinch-running possibilities, and defensive replacements to call upon as needed.
Notably, the Nats feel good enough about the health of Suzuki to carry him and withhold a third catcher. Raudy Read would likely have been the alternative. Suzuki left Washington’s decisive game 5 after a pitch struck his hand and ricocheted into his face. He isn’t in the lineup tonight, though. Neither is Robles, who is still dealing with a hamstring injury suffered during the series with the Dodgers.
Latest On Ryan Zimmerman’s Future
Longtime National Ryan Zimmerman is slated to reach free agency after the season, but it doesn’t appear he’ll retire or wind up in another uniform in 2020. Odds are Zimmerman and the Nationals will hammer out a new agreement prior to next season, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com suggests.
The Nationals already control Zimmerman for another year, but they’re sure to decline his $18MM club option in favor of a $2MM buyout. That’ll bring an official end to the six-year, $100MM extension the Nationals gave Zimmerman in 2012 when he was their franchise player and one of the premier third basemen in the game. Unfortunately, injuries have been an all-too-common problem for Zimmerman since his deal kicked in during the 2014 season – the last time he lined up at the hot corner.
Zimmerman transitioned to first base in 2015 and has since offered up-and-down production, with 2019 sure to count among the least effective campaigns of his career. The 35-year-old is coming off yet another injury-limited regular season, in which he amassed 190 plate appearances and hit .257/.321/.415 with six home runs.
Zimmerman did come up with a heroic swing in the Nationals’ Game 4 win over the Dodgers in the NLDS, though it’s still fair to say his output has typically fallen short since the club made a long-term commitment to him. Nevertheless, the affinity he and the Nationals have for each other seems as if it will pave the way to another contract, per Zuckerman.
A Nat since they chose him fourth in the 2005 draft, Zimmerman told Zuckerman his time in Washington has been “special,” and added “my family’s close. My wife is from here. So I’m lucky: I get to see my kids for 81 games. A lot of guys are on the road. So I look at it more as I’m lucky to be in this situation. I think a lot of guys would love to have this situation, but don’t really have the opportunity that I’ve had. So I think I feel more lucky than anything.”
Regardless of whether Zimmerman does remain a National, he’ll go into the offseason as an obvious candidate for an inexpensive short-term deal. At the moment, he’s one of a few Nationals first base options with uncertain futures ahead. Matt Adams also has a club option (for $4MM), but the team seems likely to buy him out for $1MM. Meanwhile, Washington’s control over soon-to-be free agents Howie Kendrick and Gerardo Parra is about to expire.