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An Early Look At Nationals’ Deadline Options

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The Nationals are 24-33, 9 1/2 games back of the NL East lead and six out of wild-card position. If that keeps up, they seem likely to sell leading up to the July 31 trade deadline. For now, though, that isn’t the Nationals’ intention. An American League executive told Jayson Stark of The Athletic that Washington’s “still talking about adding. They’ve been calling around, looking for upgrades in the bullpen. And teams with that attitude have a hard time flipping and saying it’s time to re-trench for next year.”

If the Nationals aren’t going to wave the white flag, the bullpen’s a logical place to seek upgrades. Their relief corps has been a horror show all season, ranking last in the majors in ERA (7.23), 29th in blown saves (11), 28th in FIP (5.26) and 26th in walks per nine innings (4.38). As you’d expect from those statistics, bright spots have been difficult to find in the group.

Of the seven Nationals who have logged double-digit relief appearances this season, only closer Sean Doolittle has put up respectable numbers, but even the oft-dominant left-hander had a couple blowups in the second half of May. Meanwhile, blowups have been all too common throughout the season for southpaw Matt Grace and hard-throwing righty Kyle Barraclough – one of the Nationals’ key offseason acquisitions. Fellow offseason pickup Trevor Rosenthal could scarcely record an out before the club banished him to the injured list April 26 because of a viral infection. Wander Suero, Tony Sipp and the injured Justin Miller have mostly been ineffective, while it’s too soon to pass judgment on a Tanner Rainey–Javy Guerra–Kyle McGowin trio that has thrown a combined 13 1/3 innings.

Unfortunately for the Nationals, with the deadline still two full months away, teams with valuable relief trade chips may want to keep them in hopes of sparking a late-July bidding war. Although, Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo was able to pry reliever Kelvin Herrera out of Kansas City almost a month and a half before last year’s deadline. The Herrera acquisition didn’t work out, though, continuing Rizzo’s spotty track record of bullpen trades. Even getting Doolittle and Ryan Madson from the Athletics in 2017 cost the Nats Blake Treinen and Jesus Luzardo, the former perhaps baseball’s best closer in 2018 and the latter now an elite pitching prospect, as well as a good third base prospect in Sheldon Neuse. The summer before that, reeling in Mark Melancon from the Pirates forced the Nationals to give up now-excellent Pittsburgh closer Felipe Vazquez.

Though the Nationals want to make yet another in-season trade(s) to repair their wonky bullpen, the luxury tax line is worth keeping in mind in their case. Ownership reportedly doesn’t want to exceed the $206MM threshold, which helps explain why Washington hasn’t just signed free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel to better its late-game situation. The team’s a bit under $203MM in luxury tax payroll, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, and would have to shell out a 50 percent surtax for every dollar spent over the line.

The tax is likely weighing on the Nationals’ minds as they consider buying. However, there’s plenty of time for the club to change course and pivot toward selling if the on-field product doesn’t improve. Should Washington take that route, it could consider moving the premier impending free agent in the game (at least among position players), third baseman Anthony Rendon. Rizzo was in a similar position last year with Bryce Harper, but given that the Nationals were hovering around the .500 mark, he decided to retain the outfielder. The Nationals then missed the playoffs and failed to re-sign Harper, leading him to bolt for the division-rival Phillies in free agency after rejecting a qualifying offer. All the Nats got for his exit was a fourth-round pick. The departure of a qualified Rendon would return something better – a draft choice after Competitive Balance Round B – but only if they stay below the tax line.

Beyond Rendon, Stark points to Doolittle and right-handed ace Max Scherzer as potential trade chips. Stark hears from multiple executives that the Nationals are not interested in moving Scherzer, though. The 34-year-old Scherzer’s contract still has more than $100MM on it – including in deferrals – but he remains a dominant force who’d draw plenty of interest. Doolittle has just another year of control left (a $6.5MM club option), though trading him would likely damage the bullpen-needy Nationals’ chances of competing in 2020. More realistically, a Nats sale could revolve around Rendon with Michael A. Taylor, who’s under control for one more year, and potential free agents Matt Adams, Howie Kendrick, Brian Dozier and Gerardo Parra also looking like trade candidates.

Nationals Shut Down Jeremy Hellickson

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Nationals righty Jeremy Hellickson has been sidelined since mid May due to a shoulder strain, and it doesn’t appear as though he’ll be returning in the near future. Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com tweeted today that the Nats have shut Hellickson down from throwing due to ongoing soreness in his problematic right shoulder. He’d been on a long-toss program.

Hellickson, 32, was a nice pickup for the Nats on a minor league deal in 2018 when he gave them 91 1/3 innings of 3.45 ERA ball with a 65-to-20 K/BB ratio through 19 starts. That prompted the Nats and Hellickson to reunite on a one-year pact back in February — a deal that promised the former AL Rookie of the Year a modest $1.3MM salary (plus additional incentive opportunities). He’s already picked up $600K worth of incentives, securing $200K bonuses for his third, fifth and seventh starts of the season.

The 2019 season has been an entirely different story for Hellickson, who hit the injured list back on May 19 after seeing his ERA rise to 6.23. After allowing just 11 homers in 91 1/3 frames last year, he’s already served up nine long balls. Hellickson’s average fastball is down from 89.7 mph to 88.5 mph, and he’s seen his BB/9 mark spike from 1.97 a year ago to 4.62 in 2019.

Hellickson was one of three starting pitchers signed to Major League deals this winter, and while it’s hard to overstate Patrick Corbin’s early excellence in the first season of his $140MM contract, the team’s investments in Hellickson and Anibal Sanchez haven’t paid dividends yet. A disastrous bullpen has been the main culprit in Washington’s shockingly poor start to the season, but the tough outings at the back of the rotation have been a significant factor in the Nats’ 23-32 record as well.

With Hellickson out for a yet-to-be-determined period, the Nationals will likely look to Erick Fedde in the fifth spot of the rotation. Based on the pair’s 2019 output, it’s an upgrade for the Nationals. Fedde has a 2.25 ERA with a 27-to-5 K/BB ratio in 24 2/3 innings of Triple-A ball so far and has also given the Nats 20 2/3 frames with a 2.18 ERA in the big leagues. His 12-to-8 K/BB ratio and a pair of hit batsmen create some cause for concern with regard to Fedde’s MLB showing, but the former first-round pick and top prospect certainly at least merits a look.

Nationals Sign Jonny Venters

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The Nationals announced that they’ve signed veteran left-hander Jonny Venters to a minor league contract and assigned him to Double-A Harrisburg. The 2018 National League Comeback Player of the Year was released by the Braves earlier this month.

Venters, 34, returned from three Tommy John surgeries and a five-year MLB absence in 2018 to give the Braves 34 1/3 innings of 3.67 ERA ball. The southpaw averaged 7.1 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 and 0.26 HR/9 to go along with a superlative 69.1 percent ground-ball rate in that terrific comeback effort. Unfortunately, the 2019 season wasn’t kind to him. Venters appeared in just nine games with the Braves, pitching a total of 4 2/3 innings but surrendering nine earned runs (plus another four unearned runs). He faced 31 batters and allowed more to reach than he retired (nine hits, eight walks).

On the plus side for Venters, his velocity held up (93.3 mph average fastball), but that’s only a small silver lining on an otherwise tough stretch of games. For the Nationals, though, there’s little to lose in terms of giving him a look. The Washington bullpen has been an unmitigated disaster beyond Sean Doolittle, and even he’s begun to slip a bit recently — perhaps due to an elevated workload. Nationals relievers have the worst ERA in baseball by more than a run (7.14), and they rank 28th in FIP (5.27), 29th in xFIP (5.13) and 24th in SIERA (4.38).

Anibal Sanchez To Return Wednesday

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The Nationals will activate right-hander Anibal Sanchez from the 10-day injured list to start against the Braves on Wednesday, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com was among those to report. Washington will make a corresponding move when Sanchez’s return becomes official.

Sanchez went to the IL with a hamstring strain May 17, the day after the injury forced him into a quick exit in a start against the Mets. The IL placement was the latest less-than-ideal development of the season for the 35-year-old Sanchez, who revived his career with the Braves in 2018. Sanchez’s success in Atlanta led the Nationals to hand him a two-year, $19MM guarantee in free agency.

Two months into Sanchez’s deal, the move hasn’t worked out for the slumping Nats. Sanchez has taken the ball for nine starts and pitched to a below-average 5.10 ERA/4.79 FIP in that 42 1/3-inning span. While Sanchez has struck out just under a batter per inning so far, his walk rate has offset that. Sanchez walked under three per nine last year, but he’s at 5.31 this season. Moreover, his groundball rate has plummeted from 45 percent to 31.5.

At 23-32, the Nationals may be the most disappointing team in the game, but there’s arguably enough talent on hand for the club to get back in the race. Of course, it would help for Sanchez to better resemble the pitcher he was last year upon his return. In doing so, he’d give Washington a solid complement to the all-world Max Scherzer–Stephen Strasburg–Patrick Corbin trio. The Nationals haven’t been able to find any solutions behind them this season, though Erick Fedde did just enjoy a two-start, 10-inning, one-run stretch. Like Sanchez, fellow offseason free-agent signing Jeremy Hellickson has stumbled after a bounce-back 2018. Hellickson went to the IL on May 20 with a shoulder strain.

Nationals Release Vidal Nuno

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The Nationals have released left-hander Vidal Nuno III  from his minor league contract, as first announced yesterday by Paul Braverman of the Fresno Grizzlies’ communications department (Twitter link). Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post added that Nuno had a second opt-out date in his deal looming on June 15.

The 31-year-old Nuno’s numbers with Triple-A Fresno don’t look particularly appealing at first glance, as he’s been tagged for a 7.25 ERA in 22 1/3 innings of work. That ERA is perhaps a bit misleading, as Nuno had a 3.98 mark in that regard as recently as two appearances ago. However, the southpaw was clobbered for six runs in an inning in his second-most recent outing, and he followed that up by allowing three runs in an inning his last time out. Beyond that pair of awful outings, he’s had a solid, if unremarkable run in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.

Nuno is not far removed from a 2018 season in which he turned in a 1.64 ERA with 29 strikeouts against 10 walks (three of which were intentional), 1.36 HR/9 and a 28.6 percent ground-ball rate in 33 innings for the Rays. He benefited from a tiny .216 BABIP and a ridiculous 100 percent left-on-base percentage — all of the runs he allowed came on home runs — but Nuno does have a respectable track record at the big league level. He’s started 42 games and made 113 relief appearances while compiling a 4.06 ERA, 7.5 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 1.55 HR/9 and a 37.9 percent ground-ball rate through 377 innings.

Sean Burnett Announces Retirement

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Veteran left-handed reliever Sean Burnett has announced his retirement from baseball in a lengthy, heartfelt statement via the New York Post’s Ken Davidoff (Twitter links). The 36-year-old southpaw had been pitching for the Mets’ Triple-A affiliate before deciding to call it career.

Burnett last saw big league action with the Nationals in 2016 — one of many comeback attempts from a clearly talented pitcher whose promising career was decimated by injuries. As Burnett notes in his statement, he underwent four different surgeries — two of them Tommy John procedures — over a professional career that spanned parts of 19 seasons.

Originally selected by the Pirates with the No. 19 overall pick in 2000, Burnett was regarded as one of the game’s pitching prospects prior to his MLB debut, twice landing on Baseball America’s Top 100 list (including a No. 25 placement in 2003). His rookie campaign in 2004 was rough around the edges, as evidenced by a 5.02 ERA in 71 2/3 innings, but Burnett also showcased his upside with a complete-game shutout in just his sixth career start. The fact that said shutout took place in Montreal against the Expos is a testament to the length of Burnett’s career and the tireless effort he put into striving to return from the injury woes he faced.

Arm troubles shelved Burnett for the entire 2005 season, and he wouldn’t make it back to a big league mound until 2008, at which point he’d transitioned to a relief role on a full-time basis. He was eventually traded from the Pirates to the Nationals, alongside Nyjer Morgan, in the deal that sent Joel Hanrahan and Lastings Milledge to Pittsburgh. Burnett was already throwing well at the time of the swap but stepped up his game over the next three and a half seasons in D.C., working to a combined 2.81 ERA and handling plenty of high-leverage spots ( 71 holds, 10 saves).

That strong run led Burnett to ink a two-year, $8MM contract with the Angels in free agency. Unfortunately for both Burnett and the Halos, he pitched just 10 1/3 innings over the life of that contract due to one of the aforementioned Tommy John procedures. From that point forth, Burnett battled myriad health issues as signed numerous minor league deals in an effort to return to the big leagues — a goal he achieved in that brief 2016 showing with the Nationals.

All in all, Burnett’s career will come to a close with a 3.52 ERA in 378 1/3 innings of work at the MLB level, though on can only wonder what type of success he might’ve had with better health. That said, the majority of fans and players alike would be thrilled to appear in 380 Major League games, toss a shutout, collect 91 holds and 10 saves, and earn a bit north of $13MM in salary along the way. In addition to his time with the Pirates, Nats and Angels, Burnett also pitched in the minor league ranks for the Mets, Twins, Marlins, Dodgers and Braves (plus the Phillies in Spring Training 2017). Best wishes to the lefty in his post-playing endeavors.

Nationals Notes: Strasburg, Scherzer, Anibal, Ross, Knorr

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Here’s the latest from the D.C. baseball world, on a day that saw the Nationals defeat the Marlins to record their first three-game win streak of the season…

  • If the Nats can’t get back into the postseason race, Stephen Strasburg or Max Scherzer could potentially become trade candidates at the deadline depending on the team’s future direction, ESPN’s Buster Olney writes in a subscriber-only piece.  If the Nationals plan to reload for 2020, neither ace will be dealt, though a larger shakeup (and subsequent scaling-back of the team’s payroll) could see Strasburg or Scherzer on the block.  Both starter has a hefty salary, however, that will present obstacles to a deal.  Strasburg and Scherzer are each owed over $100MM on their contracts, both during the life of those deals and into the future, as per the Nationals’ deferral-heavy payment structure.  In Strasburg’s case, he is under contract through 2023 but can also opt out after either this season or the 2020 season, so potential trade suitors could either balk at the remaining salary, or balk at giving up a lot of prospects for a pitcher who could leave as early as this offseason.
  • Anibal Sanchez is set to throw a bullpen session tomorrow as he continues to rehab from a hamstring injury.  While Sanchez could potentially be activated to start for the Nats on Wednesday, Martinez told reporters (including Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com) that no decision has been made about Wednesday’s starter, and Sanchez could still make a minor league rehab start.  The veteran right-hander has gotten off to a tough start this year, posting a 5.10 ERA in his first 42 1/3 innings of 2019.
  • Joe Ross was sent down to Triple-A on Saturday, where he will be stretched out once again as a starting pitcher, Martinez told the Washington Post’s Sam Fortier and other reporters.  Injuries have limited Ross to just 285 Major League innings over four-plus seasons, and Washington deployed Ross as a reliever this season as he continues to recover from the Tommy John surgery that cost him virtually all of the 2018 campaign.  Like many in the Nats bullpen, however, Ross struggled — he posted a 9.22 ERA over 13 2/3 innings, with 12 strikeouts against eight walks.  “I think this gives him an opportunity to get comfortable, stretch him out, and hone in,” Martinez said, describing Ross’ shift back to starting pitching as a “longer term” move.
  • In his latest video update for FOX Sports (Twitter link), Ken Rosenthal reports that Triple-A manager Randy Knorr is seen by some in the Nationals organization as a natural choice to take over the big league managerial job (at least with an interim tag) if the embattled Davey Martinez is fired.  Knorr has worked in a variety of roles for the organization since 2005, including stints as the Nats’ bench coach and bullpen coach, and a manager at multiple levels of the farm system.  Rosenthal notes that Knorr’s supporters see him as a potential Brian Snitker-like figure — a longtime organization man who has managed or coached almost everyone on Washington’s roster at one time or another, so a transition from yet another managerial change could be somewhat smoother if a familiar face like Knorr took over.

Nationals Sign George Kontos

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The Nationals have signed right-handed reliever George Kontos to a minor league contract, per Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. Kontos will report to Triple-A Fresno.

The Kontos signing is Washington’s latest attempt to ameliorate what has been an abysmal bullpen so far in 2019. The club’s relief unit has managed a catastrophic 7.09 ERA, which ranks last in the majors, as well as several other unsightly statistics. Having logged a 3.10 ERA in 357 combined innings with the Yankees, Giants, Pirates and Indians, Kontos may be able to help the Nationals’ cause if he returns to the majors in their uniform.

Unfortunately for Kontos and the Nats, he hasn’t been an effective big leaguer since 2017. The soft-tossing Kontos, 33, divided 2018 among three teams and pitched to a 4.39 ERA/5.60 FIP with 5.06 K/9 and 2.36 BB/9 across 26 2/3 frames. Kontos then settled for a minors deal with the Cubs in the offseason, but he didn’t catch on with them or any other major league organization until Saturday. Instead, Kontos has only pitched for the Long Island Ducks of the independent Atlantic League to this point.

NL East Notes: Hammer, Ross, Bourque, Sobotka, Wilson

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With sidearmer Pat Neshek headed to the injured list, the Phillies have selected the contract of J.D. Hammer to take his place, per Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Breen also points out a fun bit of trivia regarding these two, as this is actually the second time Neshak has cleared out for Hammer in Philly. Hammer first came to the Phillies (along with two others) in a 2017 deadline deal that sent Neshek from the Phillies to the Rockies (Twitter links). Hammer has a 1.61 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A so far this season, though most of his time has been in Reading. In fact, Hammer is now primed to make his major league debut as just one appearance in Triple-A.

  • The Nationals continue recent tinkering of their bullpen personnel. Though their relief crew has been an unmitigated disaster, recent moves have been prompted largely by injuries to Anibal Sanchez and Jeremy Hellickson. With both Erick Fedde and Kyle McGowin taking a turn in the rotation, the Nationals are bringing in another fresh arm to help their beleaguered pen. James Bourque gets set to make his major league debut in Washington, while Joe Ross will be sent to Triple-A Fresno, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter). Finally healthy, Ross has been unable to adjust to life in the pen, sporting a bad-even-in-Washington 9.22 ERA (5.87 FIP) over 16 appearances. The velocity has been there for Ross (94.1 mph) but the control has not (5.3 BB/9). Austin Voth will be the only pitcher left on the Nationals 40-man roster not to make an appearance with the big league club this season.
  • Speaking of bullpen troubles, the Braves actually lead the league in number of pitchers used in relief so far this season with 19, per MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian (via Twitter). Chad Sobotka, one of the nineteen, was activated from the 10-day injured list and optioned to Triple-A, per MLB Roster Moves. Sobotka earned -0.6 rWAR in just 13 appearances before his injury, pitching to an 8.25 ERA while walking 6.8 batters per nine innings.
  • In New York, Justin Wilson remains at least a week away from returning from elbow soreness for the Mets, per MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter). Wilson has resumed throwing activities, with the next step being mound work before likely getting a few days on a rehab assignment. Wilson, 31, had made 10 appearances, going 1-1 with a 4.82 ERA before hitting the injured list, but there’s little to glean from such a small sample size.

Nationals Don’t Expect Near-Term Managerial Change

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Nationals president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo addressed his team’s brutal recent run of play, as Sam Fortier of the Washington Post was among those to report (links to Twitter). He made clear the organization is not looking to make any major changes — including in the managerial role.

Rizzo obviously saw the need to address the direction of the D.C. organization after a brutal series in New York. And he put to rest any questions about the safety of skipper Dave Martinez, though he didn’t do so in as formal a manner as the rival Mets did recently.

Chatting with reporters, Rizzo said that “there’s plenty of blame to go around.” He acknowledged that “it’s hard to watch sometimes,” an assessment of the club that is hard to argue with.

Rizzo made clear, though, that he doesn’t think it’d be sensible to make any momentous decisions at this point in time. “[W]e’re certainly not going to pull the plug before we’re a third … through the season,” he said.

While there’s obviously a desire to do something to spur a change, that assessment seems sensible. Martinez has faced his share of criticism, and no doubt shares in the blame, but there are numerous failings in the organization. Changing the manager isn’t going to magically turn the relief staff into a competent group. And roster changes are awfully tough to pull off this time of the year.

At some point, of course, that all may change. Regardless of what may occur with the dugout leadership, the club will certainly need to make some difficult calls if it remains buried in the division. Rizzo said he’d be willing to adjust as necessary if the direction doesn’t change, as the WaPo’s Jesse Dougherty tweets, though the club had a hard time letting go last year. Though the team ultimately moved several expiring contracts, ownership wasn’t able to pull the trigger on a Bryce Harper trade. Whether a similar decision will need to be made this summer on Anthony Rendon remains to be seen.

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