MLBTR Poll: Who’s Going To The NLCS?
If you like baseball (you’re reading this, so you probably do), Wednesday evening already looks rather promising. All four of the National League’s remaining playoff teams will square off then in win-or-go-home contests to conclude their thrilling NLDS matchups. The top-seeded Dodgers will take on the Nationals in Los Angeles, while the Braves will host the Cardinals.
To many, a third straight pennant for the perennially dominant Dodgers looked like a foregone conclusion entering the playoffs. But the 106-win club has had its hands full with the Nationals, a 93-69 team that needed a miraculous comeback over the Brewers in the wild-card game just to reach the NLDS. The Dodgers have led this series twice (1-0 and 2-1), but they’ve been unable to stamp out the Nationals, thanks in part to the heroics of Washington co-aces Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. The latter’s slated to take the ball in Game 5 against Walker Buehler, who has supplanted Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw as LA’s most valuable starter. Buehler put forth his latest ace-caliber effort in the Dodgers’ Game 1 win last Thursday, when he fired six scoreless, one-hit innings.
In Atlanta, the Braves will send Mike Foltynewicz to the mound to battle Jack Flaherty, who – like Buehler – has burst on the scene as an elite young arm. Foltynewicz entered the season as one of the Braves’ clear-cut top starters, though it nonetheless may seem hard to believe they’re turning to him with their season on the line. After all, the team did demote the 28-year-old to the minors in late June on the heels of a horrid few months. To his credit, however, Foltynewicz has rebounded since his early August return, and he continued to roll with seven shutout innings during a Game 2 victory over the Flaherty-led Cards. He’ll again contend with a St. Louis offense that has gotten exceptional production from Paul Goldschmidt and Marcell Ozuna in the series.
The 23-year-old Flaherty will deal with an Atlanta club that has seen outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. continue to stake his claim as one of the sport’s up-and-coming superstars in October. Runs may be hard to come by for Acuna & Co., though, as Flaherty hasn’t yielded more than three in a start since July 2. Dating back to then, Flaherty has given up a ridiculously low 14 earned runs in 113 1/3 innings and 17 starts.
Of course, it would be foolish to only mention the starters who are lined up for these two games. With all four clubs’ seasons on the line, they’ll likely be in all-hands-on-deck mode (or something close to it) as they attempt to reach the final round of the NL playoffs. As is often the case in the postseason, the teams’ bullpens will probably play integral roles in the outcomes. Which clubs do you expect to advance Wednesday?
(Poll link for app users)
Dodgers-Nationals: Who Wins Game 5?
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Nationals 51% (7,449)
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Dodgers 49% (7,016)
Total votes: 14,465
(Poll link for app users)
Braves-Cardinals: Who Wins Game 5?
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Cardinals 51% (7,356)
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Braves 49% (7,109)
Total votes: 14,465
Cole Vs. Rendon: Who Will Sign The Bigger Contract?
A year ago at this time, the baseball world was gearing up to see outfielder Bryce Harper and infielder Manny Machado reach free agency. They represented a pair of rare 26-year-old franchise players who were on the cusp of hitting the open market, and there was little doubt they’d end up with a couple of the richest contracts in the history of the sport. While the two wound up sitting on the market for longer than some may have expected, they ultimately did score the largest deals ever awarded in free agency before the offseason concluded. Harper left the Nationals for the Phillies’ 13-year, $330MM offer, while Machado waved goodbye to the Dodgers after a short stay in LA and signed with the Padres for 10 years and $300MM.
It wasn’t surprising that Harper and Machado reeled in $300MM-plus guarantees last winter, whereas there’s little chance of a free agent approaching that figure this offseason. That’s not a knock on the absolute best players in the upcoming class, though, as Astros right-hander Gerrit Cole and Nationals third baseman/ex-Harper teammate Anthony Rendon do have cases to collect massive paydays. In fact, both players – a pair of Scott Boras clients – have strong arguments to reach or exceed $200MM in guarantees on their forthcoming contracts.
Cole, who turned 29 last month, could not only win the AL Cy Young after putting up a 2.50 ERA/2.64 FIP with a ridiculous 326 strikeouts in 212 regular-season 1/3 innings, but the ace workhorse may also aid his cause with an epic playoff run. Cole looked to be setting himself up for a postseason in his start this past Saturday. He ran roughshod over the Rays in 7 2/3 scoreless innings, striking out 15 hitters, issuing one walk and allowing four hits during a 3-1 victory.
Regardless of how the rest of the postseason goes for Cole, Boras will likely try to get his client a pact in the vicinity of the all-time record for a pitcher. That honor has belonged to Red Sox lefty David Price since December 2015, when he inked a seven-year, $217MM contract as a free agent. Nationals righty Max Scherzer, another Boras client, isn’t far behind on the seven-year, $210MM deal he scored via the open market the winter before Price landed his accord.
Indications are that Rendon, who’s also 29, has already turned down money in the Price/Scherzer neighborhood in advance of his much-anticipated foray into free agency. Rendon spurned a seven-year, $210MM-$215MM offer (with deferrals) from Washington, perhaps in hopes of signing a contract that’s closer to the seven-year, $234MM extension Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado received before this season. While Rendon, who finally earned his first All-Star nod this year, is neither as decorated nor as young as the four-time All-Star Arenado (28), there’s a legitimate case he’s the superior player.
Dating back to 2017, which is admittedly an arbitrary cutoff point, Rendon ranks fourth among position players in fWAR (19.9; Arenado’s ninth with 17.4), trailing only MVP winners Mike Trout, Mookie Betts and Christian Yelich. And Rendon seems likely to garner serious consideration for this year’s NL MVP honors, having slashed a career-best .319/.412/.598 with personal highs in home runs (34) and fWAR (7.0) across 646 regular-season plate appearances.
It may be a long shot, but we could see Cole and Rendon square off against one another if in the Fall Classic in the next few weeks. No matter how the season ends for their teams, though, which of the two stars do you expect to emerge from the winter with the bigger contract?
(Poll link for app users)
Who will sign the bigger contract?
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Gerrit Cole 64% (6,425)
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Anthony Rendon 36% (3,585)
Total votes: 10,010
NL Notes: Robles, Wainwright, Wood
On a quiet transactional night in MLB, we’ll take a look at a few playoff and offseason related matters from the National League.
- Nationals center fielder Víctor Robles isn’t in tonight’s lineup for the club’s pivotal NLDS Game 3 matchup against the Dodgers. Per Jamal Collier of MLB.com, that’s at the discretion of manager Dave Martinez, who overruled the rookie’s requests to start in order to be particularly cautious with his prized 22-year-old. Nevertheless, Martinez described Robles’ injury as a “very, very mild” hamstring strain, and noted that the speedster could come off the bench tonight. The Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty adds (via Twitter) that the Nationals don’t anticipate any scenario in which they would scratch Robles from their NLDS roster, so it indeed seems an exceedingly minor concern for the defensive stalwart.
- Adam Wainwright, 38, gave a brilliant performance this evening in the Cardinals’ Game 3 loss to the Braves, tossing 7.2 scoreless innings with eight strikeouts. It was a vintage performance for the former ace, who gave the Cardinals 171.2 innings of league average pitching (4.19 ERA, 20.5% K%, 8.6% BB%) in the regular season. Clearly, Wainwright can still perform at a high level, but given his age and the upcoming expiration of his one-year contract, there are questions about his future. Wainwright, though, doesn’t sound like a man on the verge of hanging up the spikes, telling Joe Trezza of MLB.com postgame he “never felt for one second that today was going to be (his) last day.” That’s not a definitive statement that he’d be returning to the big leagues, or to St. Louis specifically, but it stands to reason both sides could have interest in a similar incentive-laden arrangement (which Waino went on to maximize for $10MM) as they hammered out last October.
- While Wainwright stayed healthy all season, the same can’t be said for left-hander Alex Wood, who started just seven games for the Reds after they sent two noteworthy prospects to the Dodgers to acquire him, Yasiel Puig, and Kyle Farmer last winter. Dealing with a back injury, Wood was ineffective when he did manage to take the mound, working to a 5.80 ERA with dreadful peripherals. It was hardly the platform season the 28 year-old (29 in January) wanted as he nears free agency for the first time. With the offseason offering an opportunity to get healthy, the sinkerballer tells Bobby Nightengale of Cincinnati.com he’d like to return to the Reds, admitting that his injury-riddled season wasn’t what the organization had in mind when they acquired him. As Nightengale notes, it’s difficult to see the Reds winning a bidding war for Wood given their strong staple of returning starters. That said, president of baseball operations Dick Williams has made clear the organization plans to be aggressive in free agency this offseason and wants to bolster the club’s pitching depth, so perhaps a Wood reunion could be in the cards depending on how his market shakes out.
MLBTR Poll: Will Stephen Strasburg Opt Out?
Three games into the Washington Nationals 2019 postseason and Stephen Strasburg has already played the part of hero twice. In the other game, the Nats lost. Last night’s mastery spun 6 innings of 3-hit ball with 10 strikeouts to zero walks as he took the win at Dodger Stadium. His brilliance in the 2017 NLDS against the Cubs is largely forgotten since they didn’t advance, but it does add to the mounting pile of evidence suggesting Strasburg is indeed one of the game’s best big game pitchers.
Strasburg has a decision looming whenever the magic of the Nationals 2019 postseason runs dry. He has an opt-out clause in his contract that he could exercise to become a free agent this winter. Given the depressed market of recent offseasons, the possibility that Stras would opt-out seemed far-fetched not too long ago. That’s no longer the case. After completing perhaps the healthiest season of his career, one in which he could finish as high as second in Cy Young voting, one in which he registered league-leading marks in wins (18) and innings (209), as well as notching a career-high 251 strikeouts, Strasburg’s opt-out is more certain now than ever.
His agent, Scott Boras, is sure to make that pitch, though he has thus far refrained from speaking specifically about Strasburg’s intentions. He is, however, laying the groundwork for potential free agency by declaring stud starters such as Strasburg immune to any downturns in the market, per Bill Shaikin of the LA Times. With four-years and $100MM remaining on his contract already, he won’t exactly be hard-up for cash either way. Strasburg, 31, is also the rarest of Boras client – one who signed before reaching the open market.
If he doesn’t opt-out, his deal would expire after his 35th birthday. Strasburg could view this winter as his last opportunity to lock-in a major payday for his elder years. Zack Greinke signed his six-year, $206.5MM deal at a similar point in his career – after a career season in which he turned 31-years-old and finished second in Cy Young voting. In raw totals, Greinke’s 9.1 bWAR 2015 with the Dodgers eclipses Strasburg’s 6.3 bWAR 2019 by a decent margin, and Greinke’s overall track record was a tad more impressive at the time. He had been worth 48.9 bWAR to that point in his career versus 32.6 bWAR for Strasburg now. Even if you attribute the difference largely to durability (323 GS, 2094 2/3 innings for Greinke post-2015, 239 GS, 1438 2/3 innings for Strasburg post-2019), that’s hardly an insignificant attribution in contract negotiation.
A similar contract would more than double Strasburg’s guaranteed money while only tacking on two additional years. From the team perspective, it’s hard to fault the Diamondbacks for the deal now, as despite the whopping gross total, Greinke did deliver 16.4 bWAR across 3+ seasons, a playoff appearance, utility player Josh Rojas and their #4, #11 and #12 prospects as ranked by MLB.com.
Jake Arrieta signed a free agent contract when the Phillies inked him to a 3-year, $75MM deal the same week he turned 32. Arrieta had an even more uneven history than Strasburg, with 20.2 bWAR earned at the point of his free agency and a chasm of difference between the glory years in Chicago and his humble beginnings in Baltimore. This also feels less comparable to Strasburg as – despite being close to the same age at the time of free agency – Arrieta appeared headed for the downswing of his career. Strasburg is just now coming into his own, as written about here by Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post.
That same offseason, Yu Darvish signed his 6-year, $126MM deal with the Cubs in the winter of his 31st year. Darvish was coming off a 4.0 bWAR season split between Texas and Los Angeles, though a pair of disastrous World Series outings certainly colored the narrative of his free agency.
Regardless, Strasburg, Scott Boras, and the Nationals will have a lot to talk about this winter. If Strasburg can further grow his October legend, Boras may be right about his value transcending that of the market. Not to mention, Strasburg’s hometown of San Diego has a team on the rise, money to spend, and a gigantic ballpark with which to lure Strasburg home. In terms of competition, he’d be the clear-cut second-best starting pitching option on the free agent market after Gerrit Cole. You tell me: what comes next in the Strasburg saga?
(Poll link for app users)
Will Stephen Strasburg Opt-Out After 2019?
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Yes. 53% (4,211)
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Yes, but only to negotiate an extension with the Nats. 28% (2,236)
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No. 19% (1,540)
Total votes: 7,987
Victor Robles Tweaks Hamstring
The Nationals hung on for a 4-2 win over the Dodgers in Game 2 of the NLDS on Friday, but they may have suffered a major loss in the process. Center fielder Victor Robles departed after laying down a sacrifice bunt in the top of the eighth inning. He’s dealing with a tweaked hamstring and is day-to-day at the moment, Jamal Collier of MLB.com tweets.
The severity of Robles’ injury isn’t clear yet, but the Nationals know all too well that a hamstring tweak can lead to a long absence. Reliever Roenis Elias received the same diagnosis a month ago and hasn’t pitched since. If Robles’ issue is similarly severe, he might not play again in 2019.
An elite prospect during his days in Washington’s farm system, Robles has emerged as a strong contributor during his first full MLB campaign, evidenced by his 2.5 fWAR in 617 plate appearances. Robles didn’t show off Juan Soto-esque dominance with the bat in the regular season, when he hit .255/.326/.419 with 17 home runs, though he did swipe 28 bases and perform brilliantly as a defender. He led all MLB outfielders in DRS (24) and finished eighth in UZR (7.0).
When Robles exited Friday, Washington replaced him with Michael A. Taylor – a lesser hitter than Robles who also brings speed and defense to the table. Taylor and Gerardo Parra joined Robles as the only members of the club who garnered starts in center in the regular season. Parra’s also on the Nats’ five-outfielder NLDS roster, and if the team wants to keep that setup intact in the event Robles misses time, it could call on Andrew Stevenson as a replacement.
Nationals Announce NLDS Roster
The Nationals have officially announced their 25-man roster for their National League Division Series matchup against the Dodgers. Game 1 is tonight, with Patrick Corbin taking the hill for the Nats in his first-ever postseason game, while Walker Buehler will make the start for Los Angeles.
Right-handed pitchers
- Daniel Hudson
- Tanner Rainey
- Fernando Rodney
- Anibal Sanchez
- Max Scherzer
- Stephen Strasburg
- Hunter Strickland
- Wander Suero
- Austin Voth
Left-handed pitchers
- Patrick Corbin
- Sean Doolittle
Catchers
Infielders
Outfielders
There isn’t much changeover from the Nats’ roster for the NL Wild Card game. Catcher Raudy Read and outfielder Andrew Stevenson didn’t get the call for the NLDS, as Washington opted to add pitching depth in the form of Voth and Suero. The latter is particularly notable, as Suero has posted virtually identical numbers against both left-handed and right-handed hitters over his 119 career innings, giving D.C. some extra protection (beyond only Doolittle) against the Dodgers’ lefty swingers.
The relief corps naturally stands out as the biggest question facing the Nats, given the bullpen’s season-long struggles. Since there are only 11 pitchers total on the NLDS roster, it stands to reason that the Nationals will continue to use something of a mix-and-match approach in the series, though obviously not to the same extent as the wild card game (when Strasburg relieved for Scherzer). Despite his relief outing on Tuesday, Strasburg is still expected to start Game 2, though no official announcement has yet been made. Sanchez is the only other starting candidate, and he could potentially be used in Game 4, or more likely will be deployed as a long man throughout the series.
Nationals’ Wild Card Roster Features Only 5 Relievers
The Nationals have released their Wild Card roster, and it’s a fun one. Anticipating a deluge of Brewers relievers — and long innings from their top starters — the Nats have loaded up on bench players at the expense of pitching volume.
Here’s the 25-man unit that will be available this evening to manager Dave Martinez:
Right-Handed Pitchers
- Max Scherzer (probable starter)
- Stephen Strasburg
- Anibal Sanchez
- Daniel Hudson
- Fernando Rodney
- Hunter Strickland
- Tanner Rainey
Left-Handed Pitchers
Infielders
Outfielders
Catchers
It has long been supposed that the Nats would stake their season on their trio of high-end starters, and this roster is a bold affirmation of that decision. The club will ride Scherzer as long as he’s his typically dominant self before making its next move. Whether that’ll mean handing off to Strasburg and then Corbin, or vice versa, with or without a reliever interspersed … that all remains to be seen.
By foregoing additional hurlers, the Nationals will not have as many chances to gain situational advantage when they are in the field. They’ll instead trust their best pitchers to get outs no matter the handedness of the opposing batter. That’s a reflection both of the core trio of excellent starters — Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin — and the Nats’ season-long struggles in the relief unit. Doolittle was long the team’s lone reliable hand but ran into late health issues. Hudson has been good since coming over via trade but doesn’t exactly carry dominating peripherals. Martinez will do everything he can to avoid deploying any pitcher other than those five in a high-leverage spot.
It’s a bit of a surprise not to see Wander Suero on this roster. He threw a lot of mostly solid innings this season and has shown the ability to retire both left and right-handed hitters. Perhaps the club only anticipates utilizing Rodney, Strickland, and Rainey if specific match-up situations arise and simply did not see a way that Suero would get in the game.
There’s perhaps some possibility of the Nats being hung out to dry in the pitching department, though that’s not terribly likely and Sanchez provides a ready backstop. The team obviously felt it preferable to ensure that it doesn’t have such an issue arise on the position-player side. With the Brewers expected to run out a dizzying array of arms over the course of the contest, the Nationals have chosen to carry an overstuffed bench. That’ll create opportunities for countering the Milwaukee pitching match-ups and liberally deploying pinch hitters, pinch runners, and/or defensive replacements.
MLBTR Poll: NL Wild Card Matchup
It’s a quiet morning, but the evening promises to be filled with fireworks. The Nats and Brewers will square off in D.C. after falling shy in their respective divisions but out-running the rest of the National League Wild Card field.
All Wild Card games come with the potential to be … well, wild. The format allows teams to compile rosters aimed at maximizing situational possibilities in one single game. And the win-or-go-home setting ensures that those rosters are unloaded — sometimes in creative fashion — without concern for ensuing contests. But this particular matchup is especially intriguing. In part by design and in part by happenstance, these teams have polar-opposite distributions of pitching talent.
The Nats are in good shape on paper, as they’ll trot out one of the game’s preeminent aces and competitors in Max Scherzer. An exceedingly unreliable bullpen lies in wait, but the club may attempt to forego it entirely by calling upon their other top-shelf starters — Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin — to clamp down on a Brewers lineup that managed to produce a late winning streak even after losing superstar Christian Yelich for the season. In theory, it’s a reasonably straightforward situation for Nats skipper Davey Martinez, but there could easily be some nervy moments as he decides whether and when to pull his horses and hand the ball off to Sean Doolittle and company.
The Brewers will also call upon their best starter in Brandon Woodruff. But he won’t be tasked with turning in a lengthy, shut-down performance. The young righty has only made a pair of two-inning appearances since returning from injury and surely won’t be extended too far beyond that point. His abbreviated start will kick off a cat-and-mouse bullpen game that is likely to feature multiple frames from relief ace Josh Hader and gobs of mixing and matching. It’ll be fascinating to see how manager Craig Counsell attempts to navigate a deep and balanced Nationals lineup. He’ll no doubt try to get as many outs as possible from his best arms while deploying situational relievers when necessary. The Milwaukee pitching situation could take any number of different paths and involve every hurler on the roster.
Which team has the edge in the NL Wild Card? (Poll link for app users.)
Who'll Win Tonight's NL Wild Card Game?
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Nationals 69% (5,286)
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Brewers 31% (2,359)
Total votes: 7,645
Nationals Reportedly Made Recent Extension Offer To Anthony Rendon
The Nationals have made a late-season push to retain pending free agent star Anthony Rendon, according to Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post.
Per the report, the club dangled a seven-year offer in the range of $210MM to $215MM. While there were deferrals in the proposal, it would’ve functioned more like the Max Scherzer contract than the long-fuse offer the team made last year to Bryce Harper.
The offer was put on the table in early September, according to Svrluga, and it doesn’t seem as if it’s likely to be accepted. Rendon is now just weeks away from the open market and appears destined to reach it. He’ll do so armed with the knowledge that the Nats have intense interest in keeping him.
It’s not entirely clear whether the D.C. organization will keep this particular offer on the table once the offseason begins. Neither is it known whether the team is willing to go any higher if that’s needed. Regardless, it’s a nice starting point for Rendon, who has ramped up his already excellent play to higher-than-ever levels in 2019. He’s slated to reach free agency as the top available position player.
Depending upon where one looks for their contract numbers, the reported offer may sound light. After all, Rockies star third bagger Nolan Arenado just got a $260MM contract that spans eight years … sort of. In fact, that deal added seven years and $234MM beyond Arenado’s final season of arbitration eligibility. In reality, the Nats’ offer to Rendon is close to — but still clearly less than — the money the Rox gave to Arenado.
That Arenado contract (which also includes an opt-out) always spelled bad news for the D.C. organization’s efforts with Rendon, as it pushed a big new comp out at an inopportune time. Rendon is nearly a year older, lacks the history of consistent home run output, and isn’t as flashy a fielder or well-known a marketing piece. But for all his steady excellence, Arenado has never reached the offensive heights Rendon did in 2019 and hasn’t yet posted a 6.0 fWAR campaign. Rendon, meanwhile, has quietly reeled off three-straight seasons with that level of all-around value.
These ongoing talks only help to set the stage for what promises to be quite an interesting trip onto the open market for Rendon and super-agent Scott Boras. The universe of bidders isn’t yet known, but there’s little doubt multiple clubs will make serious pushes to draw Rendon from the Nats.
Health Notes: Turner, Kepler, Wong, G. Sanchez
Nationals shortstop Trea Turner suffered a fractured right index finger April 3, and though the speedster made it back in mid-May, he’s nowhere near healthy, Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic details (subscription required). The index finger is a “swollen, disjointed mess,” per Ghiroli, whose piece includes quotes from Turner and some Nationals teammates and coaches in regards to his ability to play through it. Third baseman Anthony Rendon, who revealed to Ghiroli that Turner also broke his right middle finger, is in awe of the season he has had despite the injury. “I don’t know how he does it. When I messed up my thumb or whatever earlier in the year, you can’t even hold a bat,” said Rendon. “You don’t realize you need to use all your freaking fingers, but he can’t, which is even more impressive.” The Nationals locked up a wild-card spot Tuesday with a doubleheader sweep of the Phillies. All Turner did was collect three hits, including two doubles, in Game 1 and then belt a go-ahead grand slam in a come-from-behind victory in the evening.
- Twins outfielder Max Kepler has been dealing with left shoulder issues since Sept. 8, when he left a game against Cleveland after swinging awkwardly. The ailing Kepler hasn’t taken an at-bat in almost two weeks (Sept. 14), and it’ll be a little while longer before he does. The breakout 26-year-old is currently planning to make it back “no later than the beginning of a possible postseason series,” Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com writes. The Twins are on the verge of clinching the AL Central, so avoiding the wild-card game will give Kepler a bit of extra time to get ready for a first-round series.
- The left hamstring strain Cardinals second baseman Kolten Wong suffered last Thursday is a Grade 2 tear, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. That likely sounds worse than it is, as Wong’s hopeful he’ll be able to come back during the Cardinals’ final series of the regular season. The Redbirds are closing in on a division title thanks in part to Wong, a .285/.361/.423 hitter with 11 home runs and 24 stolen bases in 549 plate appearances. His absence has enabled Matt Carpenter to get back into the Cardinals’ everyday lineup at third base, while highly productive rookie Tommy Edman has taken over for Wong at the keystone.
- Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez is hoping to return from a groin strain this weekend, James Wagner of the New York Times tweets. That would give Sanchez a bit of time to tune up before the AL East champions’ first-round series. The slugger hasn’t played since Sept. 12, which has left New York’s catcher position to Austin Romine and Kyle Higashioka.