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NL Pitching Notes: Senga, Ferrer, Rockies

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Kodai Senga has yet to pitch in a game this spring. The 2023 All-Star and Rookie of the Year runner-up is nursing a right shoulder strain. Although Andy Martino of SNY reported on Wednesday that “the word” on Senga’s health remained “very positive,” an update on Friday afternoon from Tim Healey of Newsday Sports is a little less optimistic. Initially, Senga was to be shut down for three weeks. Those three weeks have now passed, but according to president of baseball operations David Stearns, the 31-year-old “won’t throw for another 7-10 days.”

This setback likely removes any hope that Senga would return to the Mets rotation before the end of April, but an early May return is still on the table. Presuming he needs about six weeks to stretch out his arm, the righty could be back on the mound by the first week of May if he starts throwing again next weekend.

Needless to say, the Mets are hoping their ace misses as little time as possible. Senga made 29 starts last season, finishing second among qualified NL starters with a 2.98 ERA. Jose Quintana, who made just 13 starts in 2023, gets the Opening Day nod in his place, while Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, Adrian Houser, and Tylor Megill are likely to round out the rotation.

More pitching updates from the National League…

  • The Nationals have shut down Jose A. Ferrer as the southpaw nurses a teres major strain (per Mark Zuckerman of MASN Sports). He will not pitch for at least three weeks. Ferrer, 24, made his MLB debut last season, appearing in 39 games out of the bullpen for Washington. Although his 5.03 ERA and 17.6% strikeout rate were unimpressive, he induced plenty of weak contact on the ground. Only a handful of NL relievers had a higher groundball rate or a lower barrel rate, per Baseball Savant. Ferrer was a strong candidate to make the Nationals’ Opening Day roster, and his injury leaves Robert Garcia as the only healthy left-handed reliever on the 40-man roster.
  • According to Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post, right-handed pitchers Dakota Hudson and Peter Lambert are the two favorites for the fifth and final spot in the Rockies starting rotation. Hudson, who spent the first six years of his career with the Cardinals, has more major league experience and a recent track record of moderate success. He has made 38 starts over the past two years with a 4.78 ERA. Lambert, who made his debut with Colorado in 2019, has started just 32 games in his career, pitching to a dismal 6.38 ERA. Even accounting for the different run environments at Busch Stadium and Coors Field, that’s a stark difference. That said, Hudson is more of a proven quantity at this point in his career, while Lambert could still have some of the upside that made him a fringe top-100 prospect before his rookie season. Hudson seems like the leading contender, but there’s a reason Lambert remains in the conversation.

Nationals Outright Carter Kieboom

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The Nationals announced that third baseman Carter Kieboom has cleared outright waivers and been sent outright to Triple-A Rochester. There had not been any previous indication that he had been removed from the 40-man roster, so the club’s count will drop to 39.

Kieboom, now 26, was the club’s first round draft pick in 2016. He was selected 28th overall that year and hit well enough in the minors that he was considered a top 100 prospect in the years to come. Baseball America ranked him #41 in the majors in 2019 and then #15 in 2020.

Unfortunately, his progress has been held back since then. He received 371 plate appearances over 2020 and 2021 but hit just .206/.315/.285 in that time. He then required Tommy John surgery early in 2022, wiping out that entire season for him.

He returned last year but health continued to play a role. He started the season on the injured list due to a shoulder impingement and was optioned to the minors when activated in May. He then experienced some lat soreness in the minors. He eventually played 27 major league games and 44 minor league contests for the year, hitting .207/.266/.368 in the bigs and .256/.362/.411 on the farm.

Kieboom has continued to hit in the minors, with a Triple-A slash of .281/.392/.457 over three different seasons. But he’s now coming off two injury-marred seasons and is out of options. The Nats seemingly didn’t have much intention of giving him a run of playing time this year, as they signed Nick Senzel to be their everyday third baseman. It seems none of the other 29 clubs had much appetite to give Kieboom a shot either, as they all passed on the chance to grab him off waivers.

He will now stick with the Nationals but without taking up a spot on the 40-man roster. Players with three years of service time can reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency but Kieboom is just under that threshold, currently at two years and 168 days. Since a year rolls over at 172 days, he is just four days shy of the three-year marker.

If he stays healthy and productive this year, he could earn his way back into the plans in Washington. Senzel is only under club control through 2025 and could find himself on the trade block this summer if he’s playing well, as the Nationals aren’t likely to be in contention this year.

Offseason In Review: Washington Nationals

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The Nationals are entering the third full season of their rebuild, and their lackluster offseason was emblematic of a team more focused on the long-term picture than even feigning an attempt at competing in 2024.

Major League Signings

2024 spend: $9.25MM
Total spend: $9.25MM

Option Decisions

  • Declined $3.3MM club option on CF Victor Robles (Robles was arbitration-eligible and remains with the team after agreeing to a lower-cost one-year deal)

Trades and Waiver Claims

  • Selected SS Nasim Nunez from the Marlins in the Rule 5 Draft

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The Nationals lost 91 games last season and entered the offseason with a fairly modest $110MM committed to the 2024 roster. With ample room to add starting pitching and players at various positions around the diamond, the stage looked to be set for some offseason dealings. General manager Mike Rizzo seemed to suggest as much early at last year’s Winter Meetings.

“We’ve got several holes to fill,” the veteran general manager said. “We’ve got our work cut out for us this year, and I think we’re going to take our aggressive approach when it suits us and wait for the market when it suits us. I think we’re going to be busy here. … I think we’re going to be aggressive again this year looking for a bat that can play the corner infield, be it third base or first base or DH or left field, or a combination of all three of those. And then we’ll resort back to getting more pitching.”

Rizzo went on to indicate that he’d be comfortable offering multiple years to free agents “in the right situation.” It was an encouraging slate of comments for Nats fans who have been tracking a series of ballyhooed prospects throughout the current rebuild and looked to the 2024 season as a year that could see the team begin to turn the corner.

Fast forward several months, however, and many of those claims ring hollow. The Nationals spent under $10MM in free agency, didn’t make a single trade and, despite having the No. 5 waiver priority in baseball, didn’t place a claim on a single player all offseason.

Washington did indeed add some corner bats, as Rizzo alluded to, but the impact of those acquisitions doesn’t look to be particularly high. For the second straight season, the Nats bought low on a non-tendered former top prospect to take over at third base. Unlike Jeimer Candelario, however, Nick Senzel isn’t simply coming off one down season. The former No. 2 overall draft pick has never had an average offensive season in parts of five MLB campaigns. He’s a career .239/.302/.369 hitter — about 23% worse than average, by measure of wRC+, which weights for the hitter-friendly home park in which Senzel has spent his entire career to date (Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park).

Health has been a major roadblock for Senzel, who’s been on the injured list seven times in his big league career (to say nothing of multiple notable injuries from his prospect days). If the Nats can finally get Senzel healthy, he’d hardly be the first former top prospect to thrive in a change of scenery. He’s still just 28 years old, and the Nats will only owe him a $2MM salary this season. If he performs well, he’ll be a viable trade deadline chip but also could be a multi-year piece for Washington. Because he’s three weeks shy of five full years of MLB service, Senzel will be controllable through 2025 via arbitration.

The Nationals have already said that Senzel will be the team’s primary third baseman, which displaces their own in-house former top prospect, Carter Kieboom. He’s out of options and now ostensibly looking at a bench role. It shouldn’t come as a surprise if Kieboom himself is moved in a change-of-scenery deal later this spring — perhaps even following a DFA. It’s understandable that the Nats feel ready to move on from Kieboom after myriad injuries and parts of four unproductive big league seasons — but it’s at least a bit surprising that they’re doing so in favor of a player with a very similar career trajectory to date.

Across the diamond, it appears Joey Gallo will get another opportunity to try to recapture the Rangers form that’s increasingly becoming a distant memory. He’s still just 30 years old, but Gallo’s bat has cratered since being traded from the Rangers to the Yankees back in 2021. The slugger belted 110 home runs in just 1716 plate appearances from 2018-21, including a pair of 40-tater seasons, but since being traded, Gallo has a .166/.293/.396 batting line. He’s still walked in 14.5% of his plate appearances and hit for plenty of power, but his already problematic strikeout rate has ballooned to 40.5% in a significant sample of 970 plate appearances.

Gallo won’t cost the Nationals much, but at this point he’s two and a half seasons removed from being a productive hitter. If he goes on a huge first-half run, he could build up some trade value, but even if he’s hitting reasonably well, he’ll be viewed as a volatile rental whose ’21-’23 track record makes it tough for a team to surrender much of note in a trade.

The remainder of the lineup is largely set with in-house names. Shortstop CJ Abrams posted an ugly .300 OBP last season but saw his strikeout and walk rates improve in the season’s second half. He’s also one of baseball’s most impactful baserunners, swiping a hefty 47 bags in 51 tries, and quietly connected on 18 home runs last year. There’s legitimate breakout potential for him this season if he can continue to build on last year’s second-half gains in his K/BB profile.

On the other side of the bag, Luis Garcia Jr. will reprise his role as Washington’s everyday second baseman in what figures to be a make-or-break year of sorts. The 23-year-old was one of the sport’s top infield prospects before making his debut as a 20-year-old in 2020, and while he’s shown off the premium bat-to-ball skills that helped him garner praise (12.4% strikeout rate in ’23), he hasn’t done much else. Last year’s .266/.304/.385 slash (84 wRC+) is right in line with his career .265/.295/.395 output (85 wRC+). He’s been a sub-par defender thus far and hasn’t hit for power or provided baserunning value. He’s young enough to take another step forward, but if it doesn’t happen in what’ll be his fifth season with big league playing time, the Nats might have to look elsewhere for a long-term answer.

Then again, one need only look to center field to show the organization’s patience with homegrown talents. Victor Robles will be back for an eighth season despite not showing much since a promising start to his career. From 2017-19, the once-elite prospect — he ranked among the top 10 in all of MLB at Baseball America, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus — hit .258/.327/.431 with premium defense. Dating back to 2020, however, he’s a .225/.302/.313 hitter (72 wRC+) in nearly 1100 plate appearances. Back problems limited him to 36 games last year, and his typically excellent defensive grades plummeted. The free agent market offered some affordable alternatives (Kevin Kiermaier, Harrison Bader, old friend Michael A. Taylor), but the Nats opted to stick with Robles, who’ll reach six years of service in ’24 and become a free agent next winter. If he’s healthy and performing even reasonably well this summer, he’ll be a trade candidate.

In right field, the Nats will again give Lane Thomas everyday at-bats and hope he can build on last year’s .268/.315/.468 showing. Thomas hit 28 homers, swiped 20 bags and played a fine right field. He’s only controlled through 2025 and was the subject of plenty of trade chatter last summer. That’ll likely be the case again come July.

Behind the plate, Keibert Ruiz will again serve as the primary catcher. Ruiz popped 18 homers, struck out in just 10.3% of his plate appearances and hit .260/.308/.409 (93 wRC+). He’s already signed long-term under an eight-year extension.

Joey Meneses is likely to open the season as the Nats’ primary designated hitter, but some of the shine has come off the late-blooming slugger after an out-of-the-blue breakout in 2022. Menseses hit .324/.367/.543 with 13 homers in just 240 plate appearances as a rookie in ’22. He saw nearly triple the at-bats in ’23 but still hit just 13 homers with an overall .275/.321/.401 output. For a bat-only player, that won’t cut it moving forward.

Left field is the only real spot that’s up for grabs heading into the season. The Nats dished out minor league deals to Jesse Winker and Eddie Rosario in hopes one can step up to fill that spot. Rosario is the more capable defender and is coming off a better 2023 showing. Winker, at his peak, was the more productive of the two — at least against right-handed pitching. Neither will cost much if they make the roster. It’s unlikely either will return much in a potential deadline swap, even if they’re performing well, but the pair of veterans gives the Nats a short-term bridge to prospects like James Wood, Dylan Crews and Robert Hassell III.

On the pitching side of the roster, the Nats will effectively roll out the same staff that produced some of the worst results in the game last year. Zach Davies, another minor league signee, is the only addition of note. The Nats have plenty of payroll space but will eschew even modestly priced upgrades in the vein of Michael Lorenzen and Mike Clevinger, both of whom remain unsigned.

That will pave the way for a group of Patrick Corbin, Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin and Trevor Williams to lead the team in starts again, pending any contributions from Davies and top prospect Cade Cavalli, who’ll eventually return from 2023 Tommy John surgery — likely on a limited workload. Washington is lacking in top-end pitching prospects beyond Cavalli, though names like DJ Herz, Jackson Rutledge and Mitchell Parker could factor into the rotation at some point.

The hope will be that Gray, Gore and Cavalli can all take meaningful steps forward, but there’s reason to express skepticism despite the former top prospect pedigree of each. Gray has never walked fewer than 10.5% of his opponents in his two and a half MLB seasons, and last year’s 20.5% strikeout rate was a career-low. He finally managed to somewhat curb his highest-in-MLB home run rate (2.30 HR/9 in ’22, 1.25 in ’23), but he did so at the expense of strikeouts and more free passes. Gore was immensely homer-prone (1.78 HR/9) but missed bats at a strong level and did reach a new career-high innings total (136 1/3). Cavalli was viewed by some scouts as a future reliever before he had Tommy John surgery, and he’ll now be under a tightly managed workload.

Despite Rizzo’s earlier proclamations about needing to add pitching help and being willing to make multi-year offers in the right setting, he changed his tune dramatically just a couple months later: “I just couldn’t find that starting pitcher that was going to impact us at this time, for not only the right amount of years but the right salary at this time,” Rizzo said in mid-February.

It’s a puzzling statement when each of Alex Wood, Jakob Junis, Frankie Montas, Jack Flaherty and Martin Perez inked one-year contracts (for under $10MM, in the case of Wood, Junis and Perez). Each of Kenta Maeda ($24MM), Nick Martinez ($26MM), Michael Wacha ($32MM) and Sean Manaea ($28MM) inked two-year deals with prices that would’ve kept the Nationals’ payroll in the $140MM range, if not a bit lower. The Nats peaked at a $197MM payroll in 2019 and were at $135MM or more in each season from 2014-22.

It’s a similar story in the bullpen, where myriad arms signed short-term deals that the Nationals could accommodate. The Nats’ only pickup was righty Dylan Floro, who has a nice track record but struggled in ’23 while battling a wildly unfortunate .401 average on balls in play despite better-than-average hard contact numbers. Floro is a perfectly sensible pickup, possibly even a bargain, but the Nats have such an undefined bullpen that it’s surprising he was the only one.

Between Floro and the trio of Kyle Finnegan, Hunter Harvey and Tanner Rainey — all controlled only through 2025 — Washington will have plenty of relievers to peddle this summer. Veterans Matt Barnes and Richard Bleier could work their way into that group after signing minor league deals. Another one-year pickup could’ve given them another, though, and while the return on such investments is rarely of note, the Nats clearly had the payroll capacity to at least take a shot.

Perhaps the general dearth of activity stems from uncertainty regarding the future of the team. The Lerner family was reportedly exploring a sale of the club for the past couple seasons before announcing in late February that those efforts were being halted. It’s plenty feasible that current ownership handcuffed Rizzo and his staff in fairly significant fashion this winter, not wanting to take on long-term commitments while exploring a sale of the team. Rizzo, the rest of the front office, and ownership would never publicly state as much, but it’s fair to wonder given the minimal payroll outlay and the number of areas on the roster that remain ripe for an upgrade.

Regardless of the reasoning, the results are what they are. The 2024 season looks like another bleak year for Nats fans, one plagued by lackluster pitching performances and subpar offensive production. But the ongoing rebuild could begin to bear fruit later this season, setting the stage for a more interesting ’25 campaign. Wood and Crews will likely be in the majors by then. Corbin will be off the books. Cavalli could be both healthy and largely free of an innings cap. And the Nats only have $43MM on that year’s payroll, perhaps setting the stage for a more aggressive run through free agency following the 2024 campaign. That’s shaping up to be a deep free agent class, headlined by old friend Juan Soto in addition to Pete Alonso, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Alex Bregman — among many others. This offseason was as quiet as they come, but next winter could be more interesting.

Victor Robles Exits Game With Hamstring Tightness

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  • Nationals center fielder Victor Robles left today’s game early due to hamstring tightness, as noted by MASN’s Bobby Blanco. Manager Dave Martinez told reporters (including Blanco) after the game that Robles was dealing with a “knot” in his hamstring after being hit by a pitch in that area during a game against the Marlins earlier this week. Robles, 27 in May, was once a consensus top-5 prospect in the entire sport but has struggled to establish himself at the big league level. He was off to a hot start last year before his 2023 campaign was cut short by injury, leaving him to appear in just 36 games all season. Headed into 2024, Robles appears to be the favorite for regular reps in center field, though Martinez suggested previously that 24-year-old rookie Jacob Young would have the opportunity to earn playing time in center.

Nationals To Sign Eddie Rosario

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11:20am: Rosario’s minor league deal contains a $2MM base salary and another $2MM of incentives, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He’ll head to big league camp once he passes his physical.

9:10am: Rosario’s contract is a minor league deal, tweets Andrew Golden of the Washington Post.

8:54am: The Nationals and free agent outfielder Eddie Rosario are in agreement on a split contract that can pay the veteran up to $4MM after incentives, reports Daniel Alvarez Montes of El Extra Base. The deal is still pending a physical. Rosario is represented by Rimas Sports.

Rosario, 32, is a veteran of nine big league seasons who’ll be joining his fourth MLB club after spending six seasons in Minnesota, half a year in Cleveland and two and a half seasons with Atlanta. He appeared in 142 games with the Braves last season, tallying 516 plate appearances and batting .255/.305/.450 with 21 home runs, 24 doubles, three triples, three steals, a 6.6% walk rate and a 23.6% strikeout rate.

From 2017-20 with the Twins, Rosario was a key presence in the middle of the lineup, popping a total of 96 home runs in 2002 plate appearances and hitting .281/.317/.493 — about 12% better than league average, by measure of wRC+. His bat has tailed off since that time, however. Rosario’s blistering run with the Braves following his acquisition at the 2021 trade deadline helped push Atlanta to the postseason, and his Herculean performance in that year’s NLCS won him MVP honors during that series. But on the whole, Rosario’s bat has been below average since departing Minnesota.

Over the past three seasons, Rosario has turned in a tepid .247/.295/.417 batting line (91 wRC+). He’s still shown some power, connecting on 40 homers and logging a .171 ISO (slugging minus batting average) in that time, but Rosario has become increasingly strikeout prone along the way.

During that peak four-year run with Minnesota, Rosario fanned in just 16.5% of his plate appearances. That mark has climbed to 24.2% over the past two seasons. Rosario has never walked much, but in the past, his plus bat-to-ball skills have helped to offset his anemic walk rates and justify his swing-at-everything approach. That’s no longer the case. In 2022-23, Rosario swung more often than all but 13 big league hitters (min. 500 plate appearances), but his contact rate ranked 265th of 318 in that same subset. The issue is magnified on pitches off the plate. Rosario has chased outside the strike zone more frequently than all but seven hitters in that span but ranks 173rd in contact rate on pitches off the plate.

Those traits underscore the free-swinging Rosario’s problematic approach at the plate, but the lefty-swinging veteran can still punish mistakes in the strike zone, particularly against right-handed pitching. His career batting average and OBP lack any telling platoon splits, but the vast majority of Rosario’s power comes when facing righties.

Defensively, Rosario has experience in all three outfield spots but is best deployed as a left fielder. His sprint speed (28 ft/sec, per Statcast) still ranks comfortably above league average, but he’s never displayed the range for center field and his once-elite arm has deteriorated over the past few seasons. As recently as 2020, Rosario averaged a huge 91.6 mph on his throws from the outfield, placing him in the 95th percentile of MLB outfielders. He was down to 85.1 mph in 2023, effectively placing him right at league average.

With the Nationals, Rosario can give manager Davey Martinez another veteran to compete for time in left field, joining fellow lefty hitter Jesse Winker in that regard. Center field figures to be manned by Victor Robles, with Lane Thomas slated for everyday reps in right field. Rosario and/or Winker could also contribute at designated hitter, but the Nats signed Joey Gallo to a big league deal last month and still have Joey Meneses as well.

That gives the Nats plenty of options at first base, designated hitter and left field. Assuming the physical goes well, Rosario will be among the favorites for playing time in left field, perhaps in a platoon setting with righty-hitting Stone Garrett. Rosario will also give Washington some depth to allow touted prospects and potential cornerstones Dylan Crews and James Wood to continue developing in the upper minors rather than rushing them to the big leagues. It’s a low-cost, minimal-risk deal for a team that has looked light on experienced outfield depth and on viable power threats in the middle of the order.

Daylen Lile Stretchered Off Field After Fall Over Outfield Wall

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  • Nationals outfield prospect Daylen Lile was stretchered off the field in a scary incident in today’s Spring Training game.  While attempting to catch a home run, Lile went over the right field fence and took a bad landing, drawing immediate calls for medical attention from Red Sox pitchers in the bullpen.  Lile reportedly gave a thumbs up while being removed from the field, according to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post.  A second-round pick in the 2021 draft, the 21-year-old Lile missed all of the 2022 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, and is ranked by Baseball America as the 11th-best prospect in Washington’s farm system. [UPDATE: Manager Davey Martinez told Janes and other reporters that Lile will undergo a CAT scan.  Lile apparently landed hard on his lower back after his fall, but was able to move his feet.]

Mason Thompson To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Nationals right-hander Mason Thompson will undergo Tommy John surgery on Friday, with Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com among those to relay the news. As noted by Zuckerman, this will be the second time the righty will be undergoing the procedure, with the first occurring when he was a high schooler.

A couple of weeks ago, it was reported that Thompson would be shut down due to an elbow injury. At that time, manager Dave Martinez confessed that the team was “a little concerned,” so they likely had some inkling that today’s news was possible.

It’s undoubtedly a frustrating setback for both Thompson and the team. The now-26-year-old came over to the Nationals from the Padres in the 2021 Daniel Hudson trade and now has 106 games of MLB experience under his belt between those two clubs. He has logged 103 1/3 innings, allowing 4.53 earned runs per nine. His 17.7% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate are both subpar, but his 51.1% ground ball rate is quite strong.

The Nats are rebuilding and will likely have plenty of innings available for young pitchers this year, allowing them to continue to develop while showcasing their abilities to the league. Unfortunately, Thompson won’t be able to take advantage of that opportunity. Since Tommy John rehab generally takes over a year, he’ll miss the entire 2024 season and perhaps the early portions of 2025 as well.

The club will have to pivot to other options with Thompson no longer in the mix for this year’s bullpen innings. They have given minor league deals to various veterans such as Derek Law, Matt Barnes, Richard Bleier, Luis Perdomo and Jacob Barnes.

The Nats will likely transfer Thompson to the 60-day injured list once they need his roster spot. If that comes to pass, he’ll spend the whole year there, receiving major league pay and service time. He would cross three years of service in that scenario and qualify for arbitration next winter, though missing the entire year will make him unlikely to receive a substantial raise. The Nats could also designate him for assignment, but injured players can’t be put on outright waivers, meaning he’d have to be put on release waivers. They could then try to re-sign him to a minor league deal but Thompson would be free to explore opportunities with other clubs.

Nationals, Matt Barnes Agree To Minor League Deal

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Feb. 27: The Nationals and Barnes are in agreement on a minor league deal, reports Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. The agreement is still pending a physical. Assuming that goes well, Barnes will report to big league camp as a non-roster invitee.

Feb. 26: Veteran right-hander Matt Barnes has “made good progress” towards a deal with the Nationals, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive, though Cotillo cautions that the deal is not complete. Earlier today, Cotillo relayed that Barnes’ market was heating up with the Nats being one of the teams in the mix. The righty is a client of ISE Baseball. The Nationals have a full 40-man roster and would need to open a spot for Barnes — if the parties are discussing a guaranteed deal. That could easily be achieved by moving Stephen Strasburg to the 60-day injured list.

Barnes, 34 in June, is coming off a rough couple of years but looked like one of the most dominant relievers in the league prior to that. From 2016 to 2019, he had a stretch with the Red Sox where he looked like a solid but not elite reliever. Over those four seasons, he made 264 appearances for Boston with a 3.84 earned run average. His 32% strikeout rate was quite impressive and he kept 48.4% of balls in play on the ground but his 11.4% walk rate was on the high side.

In the shortened 2020 season, he had a bit of a blip, with his ERA jumping to 4.30. But in 2021, he turned things around in spectacular fashion. Through July 10, he had tossed 37 innings over the same number of appearances, allowing 2.68 runs per nine. He struck out a huge 44.6% of batters faced while giving out walks at just a 7.2% clip. He was just a few months from free agency but the Sox decided to lock him up, agreeing to a two-year extension with a guarantee of $18.75MM and a club option for 2024.

Unfortunately, things took a downward turn shortly after that deal was signed. His next seven appearances were scoreless but he hit a rough patch in early August. From the signing of extension to the end of the year, his ERA was 6.11. He then posted a 4.31 ERA in 2022, with subpar strikeout and walk rates of 19.3% and 11.9%, respectively. He was dealt to the Marlins prior to last year and put up a 5.48 ERA in 24 appearances. He went on the injured list in early June due to a left hip impingement and never returned, undergoing surgery in July. The Fish turned down his option at the end of the year and sent him to the open market.

“Looking back on it, I’m realizing now that the hip was such a limiting factor in my ability to get into my lower half, subconsciously knowing that it was there,” Barnes told Alex Speier of the Boston Globe last month. “The nature of the injury with the hip, it didn’t allow me to get over my front side and truly rotate and create power.” The right-hander averaged 95-98 miles per hour on his fastball through 2022 but then was down to 93.4 last year, perhaps backing up his assessment of his poor campaign in 2023.

For the Nats, taking a flier on Barnes and hoping for a post-surgery bounceback would be a sensible gambit. The club has been deep in a rebuild for many years and isn’t expected to return to contention here in 2024. The projected standings at FanGraphs and the PECOTA standings at Baseball Prospectus both peg them to be the worst club in the National League East and one of the worst in the majors overall.

They currently project to have a bullpen featuring Kyle Finnegan, Hunter Harvey and Tanner Rainey, all of whom are set for free agency after 2025. Coming into the winter, they had almost no one else with a meaningful track record of big league success, leaving plenty of openings for other hurlers. They signed Dylan Floro to a one-year deal to stabilize the ’pen somewhat and perhaps turn himself into a trade chip. Signing Barnes would come with the same logic.

Given the long-term outlook of the club and the fungible nature of relievers, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Finnegan/Harvey/Rainey trio on the trading block this summer if they are throwing well. Even if someone like Floro or Barnes didn’t pitch well enough to net a huge deadline return, they might still need to step up and play a role to help the club get through end of the season. The Nats have also given non-roster deals to veterans like Derek Law, Richard Bleier, Jacob Barnes and Luis Perdomo.

MLBTR Podcast: Finding Fits For The “Boras Four,” Which Teams Could Still Spend? And Rob Manfred In His Last Term

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Nationals, Derek Law Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Nationals and right-hander Derek Law have agreed to a minor league deal with an invite to big league camp, per Robert Murray of FanSided. The CAA Sports client will earn a salary of $1.5MM if added to the roster and there’s also $500K available via incentives as well as three opt-out opportunities.

Law, 33, posted solid results for the Reds last year, logging 55 innings while allowing 3.60 earned runs per nine. However, he may have been lucky to do so, as his 18.8% strikeout rate, 10.8% walk rate and 39.5% ground ball rate were all below league average. The baseball gods could have been smiling on him a bit, as his .275 batting average on balls in play and 77.9% strand rate were both on the fortunate side.

His 4.62 FIP and 4.82 SIERA suggested he may not have been able to continue keeping runs off the board at the rate that he did last year. The Reds may have agreed, as they decided to non-tender Law instead of keeping him around via arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected a modest $1.4MM salary but the Reds cut him loose instead.

The Nats are rebuilding and should have innings available for relievers at some point this year. Kyle Finnegan, Hunter Harvey, Tanner Rainey and Dylan Floro are the only relievers on the roster with more than three years in the big leagues. If any of them are throwing well this summer, they could find themselves on the the trade block, since the Nats aren’t expected to be in contention. Floro is on a one-year deal while each of Finnegan, Harvey and Rainey are set to become free agents after 2025.

Law is a veteran journeyman who debuted back in 2016, having suited up for the Giants, Blue Jays, Twins and Tigers before joining the Reds. He has thrown 256 innings in the majors with a 4.08 ERA. He would be a logical fit on a club that’s lacking in experience, though he’ll have competition from other non-roster invitees like Richard Bleier, Luis Perdomo, Jacob Barnes and others. If Law doesn’t end up on the roster, the opt-outs give up some ability to pursue other opportunities, though the exact dates of those opt-outs haven’t been reported.

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