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Astros Injury Notes: Urquidy, Taylor, Gurriel, Alvarez, McCullers

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The Astros’ long list of injured pitchers will get a bit shorter today, as Jose Urquidy and Blake Taylor have both been activated from the 10-day injured list.  Urquidy will get the start in today’s game against the Red Sox.  Right-handers Andre Scrubb and Ralph Garza were optioned to Triple-A to make room for Urquidy and Taylor on the active roster.

Urquidy hit the IL on May 16 due to right shoulder discomfort, though that potentially ominous-sounding diagnosis wasn’t considered too serious.  The right-hander will indeed return in pretty short order, and he’ll look to continue what has thus far been a solid 2021 season.  Urquidy has a 3.22 ERA and a very strong 5.1% walk rate over 44 2/3 innings, though advanced metrics (such as a 4.58 SIERA) haven’t been as impressed with his work.  Urquidy has both a low strikeout rate (18.6%) and grounder rate (28.5%), and he has been relying on a lot of soft contact and some batted-ball luck (.242 BABIP) to retire batters.

Taylor has been out of action since suffering a right ankle sprain on April 17, and he has been on a Triple-A rehab assignment since last week.  Taylor made his MLB debut last season, and he has a 3.12 ERA, 18.4% strikeout rate, and 12.3% walk rate over 26 total innings in the big leagues.  With Kent Emanuel still on the IL, Brooks Raley has been the only other left-hander in Houston’s bullpen, so Taylor’s return will add some depth in that area.

The lineup will continue to be shorthanded, however, as manager Dusty Baker told reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart and The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome) that neither Yuli Gurriel or Yordan Alvarez are available for today’s game, though both are “close” to returning.  Alvarez appears to be the nearest of the two, though Baker said he “nixed” the idea of Alvarez in the lineup in order to give the young slugger another day of recovery.

This will make it five games missed for Alvarez due to a wrist problem, while Gurriel is now on track to miss his third game due to inflammation in his left middle finger.  Baker did say Gurriel would return at some point during Houston’s four-game series with the Red Sox that begins today.

“It’s a situation where they’re not hurt badly enough where you can put them on ten days and lose them, so you’d rather wait two or three days extra and not lose them for ten,” Baker said.

The Astros still scored 15 runs in the two games without Gurriel and Alvarez in the lineup, though naturally the team would like to have two of its best hitters back as soon as possible.  Both players have hit seven home runs this season, with Gurriel hitting .309/.380/.511 in 205 PA and Alvarez hitting .310/.343/.525 over 169 PA.

Baker also told McTaggart and company that he is hopeful Lance McCullers Jr. can be back in the rotation by the “middle of June.”  McCullers was placed on the 10-day IL on May 26 due to right shoulder soreness but, like Urquidy, the issue as thought to be pretty minor.  McCullers is playing catch in the outfield today, Baker said.  Over 51 2/3 innings this season, McCullers has a 2.96 ERA/4.02 SIERA, despite allowing a lot of hard contact.

Gold Glove Nominees Announced

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The 2020 Rawlings Glove Glove Award finalists have been released, with the Cubs netting the most nominations with seven. The Mets, Nationals, Phillies, Brewers, Rays, and Red Sox were shut out.

The awards for defensive prowess will be handed out based on defensive metrics alone this year, since managers and coaches weren’t able to see players outside their regional bubble. Moving to a metrics-based system, even for a year, certainly make for interesting television, especially since these awards can make an impact on arbitration cases. Considering the uncertainty of a 60-game season, awards could carry greater weight than usual in those proceedings, thought that’s just speculation. Without further ado, here are this year’s nominees:

AL Pitcher

NL Pitcher

AL Catcher

NL Catcher

AL First Base

NL First Base

AL Second Base

NL Second Base

AL Third Base

NL Third Base

AL Shortstop

NL Shortstop

AL Left Field

NL Left Field

AL Centerfield

NL Centerfield

AL Right Field

NL Right Field

Nicky Lopez of the Royals was originally left off the list, but he is in fact a nominee at second base, one of four nominations at the keystone in the American League. It’s the only position with four nominations.

There are a few other interesting things of note. Perennial candidates like Andrelton Simmons and Matt Chapman did not make the list this year due to shortened seasons, nor did last season’s Outs Above Average leader Victor Robles. Both Gurriel brothers earned nominations this year, with the younger Lourdes (LF) joining perennial candidate Yuli (1B).

There are also a couple of largely part-time players that made the cut, like Hoerner of the Cubs and Mendick for the White Sox. Neither was the everyday second baseman, but they did reach the inning minimum of 265 total defensive innings. They qualified at second because that’s where they played the most innings. Mendick, for example, registered just 226 innings at second, but with 27 innings at third and 15 at shortstop, he ended the year with 268 total defensive innings played.

Catchers required a minimum of 29 games, which is how we got a pair of White Sox catchers making the top-3. Pitchers had to throw a minimum of 50 innings.

The winners will be selected using the SABR Defensive Index and announced on November 3rd, per sabr.org.

Astros Sign Yuli Gurriel To One-Year Extension

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11:10am: Gurriel will earn $250K upon reaching 300 and 350 plate appearances, tweets The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. He’ll also earn $350K for reaching 400 and 450 plate appearances as well as $400K for reaching 500 and 550 plate appearances.

10:32am: Just hours before postseason play begins, the Astros announced that they’ve extended first baseman Yuli Gurriel on a one-year deal that includes a club option for the 2022 season. The 36-year-old Wasserman client would’ve been a free agent this winter but will instead return for at least a sixth season in Houston.

Yuli Gurriel | Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

Gurriel will be guaranteed $7MM on the contract, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports (via Twitter). That comes in the form of a $6.5MM salary and a $500K buyout on an $8MM option for the 2022 season. He can also earn another $2MM worth of incentives on the deal.

The 2020 season hasn’t been a good one for Gurriel, who has followed last year’s superlative .298/.343/.541 slash with a dismal .232/.274/.384 batting line in 2020. The downturn at the plate doesn’t seem to have scared off first-year GM James Click, owner Jim Crane and the rest of the Astros’ decision-makers, however. “We’re excited to bring him back and get this done before the playoffs,” Click tells reporters (Twitter link via FOX 26’s Mark Berman).

Gurriel was just one of many impending free agents for Houston. They’re still facing the prospect of losing an entire outfield, with each of George Springer, Michael Brantley and Josh Reddick slated to hit the open market.

The emergence of top prospect Kyle Tucker fills one of those previously expensive outfield slots on the cheap, but it remains to be seen how the Astros will address the additional pair of vacancies. Crane has repeatedly voiced a desire to keep Springer in Houston long term, but extension talks have obviously yet to bear fruit.

Even with all those salaries coming off the books, the Astros already had just shy of $117MM committed to the team’s 2021 payroll. Gurriel’s new deal pushes that sum north of $122MM. A hefty portion of that payroll commitment is the $33MM owed to Justin Verlander, who will likely miss all of next year due to Tommy John surgery.

Despite the gut-punch of losing their ace and possibly seeing the likes of Springer and Brantley walk out the door, though, the Astros’ decision to re-sign Gurriel at what looks to be a relatively aggressive rate is at least an early signal of a continued win-now outlook.

Gurriel earned $8.3MM in 2020, so this new salary does represent a bit of a pay cut. However, non-star-caliber first basemen have seen the market rate for their services continually deteriorate in recent years. Between that trend, the considerable revenue losses that have hit the league’s 30 teams and Gurriel’s 2020 struggles, it’s a bit surprising to see him land a $7MM guarantee. The contract likely reflects that the Astros have come to value Gurriel for reasons beyond his production at the plate and that the team is confident in his ability to rebound.

The new contract further thins out what was already a bleak crop of free-agent first basemen. Other clubs seeking options at the position will likely need to invest in a rebound candidate or else take to the trade market as they search for upgrades.

Yuli Gurriel Hopes To Return To Astros After 2020

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It’s anyone’s guess what free agency will look like when we get there at the end of the 2020 season. Odds are, it won’t be particularly lucrative for older first basemen. But Astros first bagger Yuli Gurriel is among the top players available and could draw wide interest if he’s able to repeat his productive 2019 effort.

To the extent Gurriel is pondering his future, he’s thinking more about where he’ll be than how much he’ll make. If he gets his way, Gurriel told reporters including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (via Twitter), he’ll return to the Houston organization.

This is actually the fourth anniversary of the ’Stros announcement of their five-year, $47.5MM deal with Gurriel. The long-time Cuban star was considered a clear MLB talent, though there were questions about how productive he’d be at a relatively advanced age.

There have been a few ups and downs, but Gurriel has generally provided strong offensive output. He was at his best in 2019, when he launched 31 home runs and slashed .298/.343/.541 in 612 plate appearances.

Gurriel could have opted into arbitration this past offseason, but instead negotiated a $300K boost over and above the $8MM salary he was already promised. His contract still provides for termination at the end of the 2020 season, thus preventing the Astros from retaining him through arbitration.

It remains to be seen if the Houston club will share Gurriel’s interest in a reunion. Cost efficiency will surely be a primary consideration for the data-driven club, which will be looking to account for the departure of numerous big bats. We haven’t had any opportunity to see the roster-building proclivities of new GM James Click. The former Rays exec certainly came up in a culture that rewarded creative tinkering over big splashes.

Nearly Half The Astros’ Starting Lineup Is Up For Free Agency This Winter

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The Astros’ run atop the AL West has been buoyed by the presence of one of MLB’s most prolific sluggers, George Springer, and a revolving door of steady veterans in the corners. (Yes, you may insert your jokes here about what else has propelled their run of winning seasons, but the aim here is to take an actual look at the looming roster conundrums they’ll face.) Michael Brantley and Josh Reddick flanked Springer in 2019, while other iterations of the club have included Nori Aoki and Marwin Gonzalez in left field. Over the past few years, the since-traded Jake Marisnick has been a glove-first reserve option to help stabilize the mix.

Now, the Astros stand to not only lose Springer to free agency this coming winter, but also both Brantley and Reddick. Springer will hit the open market for the first time after reaching six years of MLB service, while Brantley’s two-year, $32MM deal and Reddick’s four-year, $52MM pact are both set to expire.  Things get even murkier for the Astros with the impending departure of Yuli Gurriel, whose initial five-year deal with the team comes to a close with the 2020 season. Gurriel agreed to a new one-year deal overwriting the final season of that previous pact last offseason, and he’s set to join Springer, Brantley and Reddick this coming winter.

It’s rare that any team, let alone a perennial World Series contender, enters an offseason with the potential of turning over 44 percent of its starting lineup, but that’s the precise situation in which newly hired GM James Click will find himself before year’s end.

On the plus side, the ’Stros have some likely replacements in house already. Kyle Tucker, 23, has been regularly ranked among the game’s elite prospects since being selected just three picks after Houston took Alex Bregman in the 2015 draft. (Bregman, of course, was a college player while Tucker was coming out of high school, hence the discrepancy in their timeline to the big leagues.)

A 2018 cup of coffee for Tucker didn’t produce much in the way of results (.141/.236/.203, 72 plate appearances), but he had a big Triple-A season in 2019 and hit .269/.319/.537 in an identical sample of plate appearances. In 998 PAs at the Triple-A level, Tucker has a .297/.375/.571 slash with 58 homers and 50 steals (in 59 tries). Tucker has All-Star potential that he hasn’t yet had a regular chance to show off due to the team’s largely set outfield mix. At the same time, the Astros have steadfastly refused to consider making him available in trades. He should get his opportunity in 2021 at the latest, and his ability to play all three outfield spots (even if he fits best in a corner long term) give the Astros some flexibility in pursuing other options. The club doesn’t have many pure outfield options right now, having traded the likes of J.D. Davis, Ramon Laureano, Derek Fisher and Teoscar Hernandez away in recent years.

At first base, the club could turn things over to Abraham Toro, who hit .306/.393/.513 in the pitcher-friendly Double-A Texas League before clubbing Pacific Coast League opposition at a .424/.506/.606 clip in 79 PAs. Toro didn’t do much in limited MLB time at the plate, but his bat appears mostly MLB-ready. He’s a third base prospect with questions about his glovework there, and some scouting reports (including those at FanGraphs, MLB.com and Baseball America) suggest that he could fit better at first base or (in FanGraphs’ case) left field. Yordan Alvarez is technically an option in left field or at first base, but the Astros feel better about him as a regular designated hitter and may not be keen on deploying his glove on an everyday basis.

Assuming Tucker and Toro are entrusted with two spots in the lineup, the Astros will still need to bring in at least two everyday players via trade or free agency, and they’ll need to do so with some semblance of cost efficiency. Houston already has nearly $117MM on the books in 2021 and more than $134MM worth of luxury tax obligations. That’s before factoring in arbitration raises on the 2020 salaries of Roberto Osuna ($10MM), Carlos Correa ($8MM), Lance McCullers Jr. ($4.1MM), Chris Devenski ($2MM), Aledmys Diaz ($2.6MM), Joe Biagini ($1MM) and Dustin Garneau ($650K).

Re-signing any of Gurriel, Brantley or Reddick would fill one spot without requiring a particularly long-term commitment, although Reddick’s bat has waned in recent seasons. C.J. Cron and Jake Lamb will both be options at first base, while Nick Markakis, Kevin Pillar and old friends Marwin Gonzalez and Hunter Pence represent short-term outfield possibilities. Springer and Mookie Betts are the top options on the outfield market, but signing either would likely bring the ’Stros within striking distance of a second straight season of luxury penalization. More affordable names include Marcell Ozuna, Joc Pederson and Jackie Bradley Jr.

Trade candidates are a bit more difficult to suss out this far in advance, although it wouldn’t be a surprise if Corey Dickerson (Marlins), Ender Inciarte (Braves), Gregory Polanco (Pirates), Brian Goodwin (Angels), Eddie Rosario (Twins) or Kyle Schwarber (Cubs) were to appear on the rumor circuit this summer.

Regardless of how Click and his staff choose to proceed, the Astros seem likely to be in the hunt for multiple regulars this winter, and their notable arbitration class and crop of high-priced 2021 salaries will necessitate a creative and/or low-cost addition or two.

Camp Battles: Astros’ 26th Man

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The Astros final roster spot will be a two-man showdown between Myles Straw and Garrett Stubbs, per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart. Of course, this particular “camp battle” has as much to do with the pieces around the players as the players themselves. For that matter, it may come down to a conversation between Dusty Baker and new GM James Click. The two are likely still developing a cohesive philosophy when it comes to roster construction. That they have an extra roster spot in the 26th man this season ought to help smooth the waters. Still, there’s a decision to be made here, and as with many clubs, the decision may come down to just how many catchers they want to have on the roster. Let’s take a deeper dive into the candidates. 

  • One would think that Myles Straw is the frontrunner to make the opening day roster. Without him, the Astros don’t have a natural backup for George Springer in center. With Jake Marisnick now on the Mets, Straw is the likeliest candidate to fill that void as a pinch-runner and late-game defensive replacement. Josh Reddick would probably fill that role as a backup were Straw not to make the team, though it would be surprising if that were the case for the entire season. Even if Straw doesn’t make the cut, expect him to occupy a roster spot at times throughout the season.
  • Stubbs, 26, has spent the last two seasons in Triple-A, and he’s certainly ready enough to get some time as a backup in 2020. He has a good approach at the plate, will take his walks and doesn’t strike out (16.2% K-rate last season). He’s reliable enough defensively, but it’s hard to see where the Astros would benefit from rostering a third catcher. Martin Maldonado will be the primary starter, and he could be used as a defense replacement in games he doesn’t start. On the other hand, they may risk burning their bench by pinch-hitting for Maldonado in spots. Still, Dustin Garneau is on hand for those occasions. Garneau has some power potential, but Kyle Tucker or Josh Reddick will be the first lefty bat off the bench, while Aledmys Diaz will be the guy from the right side. One backup catcher ought to suffice.
  • The sleeper candidate here is Abraham Toro. He debuted last season with a .218/.303/.385 line over a mere 85 plate appearances. Toro offers a quality combination of speed/power and the ability to play either corner in the infield as well as second base in a pinch. He’s a switch-hitter, which provides some utility beyond the overlapping skillset he shares with Diaz or Yuli Gurriel, but he also has options available. The Astros, therefore, will feel no pressure to keep him on the major league roster. That said, Toro gained some popularity last season, a quality the Astros are short on these days. Having a young player that fans can root for unequivocally may get Toro an extra look.

We’re assuming here, of course, that the Astros will go with an eight-man bullpen. That’s hardly a foregone conclusion, though it’s the likeliest result in the case of most teams, and given that the Astros have some uncertainty at the back end of their rotation, they may enjoy having an extra arm to leverage until the number four and five starters establish some consistency.

Yuli Gurriel Won’t Opt Into Arbitration

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3:26pm: Gurriel negotiated an additional $300K on top of the $8MM that was originally guaranteed, per Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com (via Twitter).

The new contract is structured as a straight one-year pact, although that doesn’t come with a lesser tax hit as one might think; a person familiar with the contract tells MLBTR that for luxury tax purposes, the termination of the original contract comes with a fee that amounts to an “upcharge” — the size of which covers the gap between his new $8.3MM salary and his previous $9.5MM luxury hit.

The new arrangement provides Gurriel with a slight boost in salary while avoiding any possibility of a contentious hearing that might’ve stemmed from opting into arbitration. The clause stipulating that Gurriel become a free agent at the end of the contract and his previous awards bonus package all carry over to the new deal. He’ll be a free agent next winter.

2:41pm: Yuli Gurriel’s five-year, $47.5MM contract with the Astros affords him the opportunity to opt into MLB’s arbitration system once eligible. But he’ll forgo that right and play out the 2020 season on the original $8MM salary dictated by the contract, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.

Although Gurriel will have only four-plus years of service time when his contract expires at the conclusion of the 2020 season — as opposed to the six years typically required to become a free agent — he’ll nevertheless head to the open market next winter. Gurriel’s contract stipulates that he be released by the Astros upon completion of the deal at the end of the 2020 season, thus allowing him an opportunity to once again test free agency.

One of the premier players in Cuba throughout the 2000s, Gurriel left his home country in early 2016 alongside his younger brother, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Both have since realized their dream of playing in the Majors. The elder Gurriel has remained a productive hitter into his mid-30s and, in 2019, turned in the best season of his career at the plate. In 612 plate appearances as Houston’s primary first baseman, he slashed .298/.343/.541 with 31 home runs, 40 doubles and a pair of triples.

AL Notes: Twins, Astros, Gurriel, Angels

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Although the Twins’ have enjoyed a rapid turnaround from 78 wins a season ago to 101 wins and a division title this year, that breakout has roots tracing back to 2009, writes Dan Hayes of The Athletic. A decade ago, the Twins landed a transformative class of international amateurs—Miguel Sano, Max Kepler, and Jorge Polanco—that blossomed into franchise cornerstones and 2019 stars. At the time, the $4.65MM the team doled out to land the three 16-year-olds was uncharacteristic for the Twins franchise, which had largely been a non-factor in the international scene; the team had no academy in the Dominican Republic and had virtually no connections with the players’ pseudo-agents. That made it especially difficult to land Sano, a coveted prospect who commanded a $3.15MM bonus and captured the attention of nearly every MLB club. On the other hand, there was less competition for Kepler, a German-born prospect, and Polanco, a scrawny teenager who lacked the projectability of Sano. Of course, those signings have delivered immense value to a team that has ridden Polanco, Kepler, and Sano to the franchise’s first division title since 2010. According to Baseball-Reference’s version of WAR, those three have been the 2019 Twins’ first-, third-, and seventh-most valuable players, combining to contribute 12.8 wins of value to the team.

  • At age 35, Astros first baseman Yuli Gurriel could be playing himself into another contract with Houston’s club, writes The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan. Gurriel has enjoyed a career year at an age where he should be declining, perhaps a reflection of his acclimation to the game in the United States. The 2020 season will be the last under his current contract, a five-year, $47MM deal inked prior to 2016, when he defected to the U.S. as one of Cuba’s most accomplished players. He’s by no means the star of a stacked lineup in Houston—he most often slots into the sixth spot for the Astros—but he has delivered solid offensive value, thanks in part to an in-season mechanical change, a focus on lifting the ball, and a heightened focus on preparation.
  • With eliminated teams beginning to consider offseason decisions, the Angels will have to decide whether to protect 26-year-old infielder Jose Rojas or expose him to the Rule 5 Draft. He posted career-best numbers at Triple-A this year, slugging 31 home runs and a .293/.362/.577 batting line. Mike DiGiovanna of Baseball America takes a look at Rojas’s case, pointing out that teams around baseball are having some difficulty tuning their evaluation of Triple-A players to the drastically altered offensive environment at the level. Since Triple-A leagues introduced the MLB-used baseball for the 2019 season, power numbers have universally spiked in Triple-A. With the reliability of raw home run numbers in question, DiGiovanna points out that teams are increasingly reliant on their scouts’ eyes in their valuation of Triple-A players.

AL Injury Notes: Cruz, Gurriel, Springer

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The Twins fell 6-2 in 11 innings to their chaser in the AL Central last night, yet they remain 5 1/2 games ahead of the Indians for the division crown. Minnesota is just 6-8 head-to-head against their eastern rival with five matchups remaining, all in the next ten days. More troublesome to the Twins, they may be without Nelson Cruz for at least these next couple showdowns. Cruz exited the ballgame in the tenth inning with wrist soreness, but he’s being listed as day-to-day, per MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park (via Twitter). Cruz carries an MVP-caliber bat when he’s healthy, arguably the best DH in the game with a .305/.385/.631 mark that pairs nicely with his traditional counting stats of 35 home runs and 92 RBIs. The wrist has been an issue for Cruz, however, as it’s already landed him on the IL twice. He was diagnosed with a ruptured ECU tendon back in March, but manager Rocco Baldelli insists the injury is nothing significant, tweets The Athletic’s Dan Hayes. Even minor injuries can have significant impact this time of year, of course, so let’s check in on a couple of injury scares for Minnesota’s potential dance partner in the upcoming ALDS.

  • Yuli Gurriel’s thunderous second half in Houston should return after just a brief interlude. The Astros first baseman left yesterday’s game with left hamstring discomfort, but he is considered day-to-day, per Mark Berman of Fox Houston. After authoring marks of .277/.314/.482 in the first half that fell just far enough below his career averages to spark fears of age-based decline for the 35-year-old, Yuli came out with a blistering second half: .351/.409/.660, pulling his overall productivity mark up to 135 wRC+, the 23rd highest mark in the majors. Gurriel’s leveling up paired with the arrival of Yordan Alvarez has made an already-strong Astros lineup certifiable.
  • In a separate tweet, Berman provides video of George Springer taking batting practice and having himself a time. This should be a welcome sight for the Houston faithful, who saw Springer suffer a mild concussion while colliding into the wall Tuesday night. It’s been a career year for Springer in this, his age-28 season, as he’s put up his most complete season to date with a line of .297/.389/.573. His 155 wRC+ pegs him as the 7th most-productive hitter in the majors this season, joining four of his Houston brethren in the top-25 among qualified hitters (Alvarez doesn’t yet qualify). From the looks of it, Springer should return to the Houston lineup shortly.

Agency Changes: Gurriels, Calhoun

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Here are the latest agency changes from around the game. As always, you can find updated representation information in MLBTR’s Agency Database.

  • Both of the Gurriel brothers — Yuli Gurriel of the Astros and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. of the Blue Jays — have hired Magnus Sports, according to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter). The elder Gurriel is closest to free agency, though he still has two full seasons to go on his five-year contract with the Houston organization. He’s also already 34 years of age. His little brother is still just 25 years old and cracked the bigs for the first time last year, turning in a promising initial showing with the Jays. His contract takes him through the 2023 campaign, with at least one year of arbitration eligibility remaining thereafter.
  • Meanwhile, Rangers power-hitting prospect Willie Calhoun has hired MVP Sports Group, per Robert Murray of The Athletic (Twitter link). The 24-year-old has seen brief tastes of the majors in each of the past two seasons but has yet to earn a full showcase at the game’s highest level. He’s seen as a high-end talent with the bat who still needs to iron things out defensively. It seems Calhoun will ultimately be given a shot in left field, but he’ll need to bounce back from a 2018 power outage (11 home runs in 578 total plate appearances) in order to force his way back onto the active roster.
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