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Yuli Gurriel

Yuli Gurriel Hopes To Return To Astros After 2020

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It’s anyone’s guess what free agency will look like when we get there at the end of the 2020 season. Odds are, it won’t be particularly lucrative for older first basemen. But Astros first bagger Yuli Gurriel is among the top players available and could draw wide interest if he’s able to repeat his productive 2019 effort.

To the extent Gurriel is pondering his future, he’s thinking more about where he’ll be than how much he’ll make. If he gets his way, Gurriel told reporters including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (via Twitter), he’ll return to the Houston organization.

This is actually the fourth anniversary of the ’Stros announcement of their five-year, $47.5MM deal with Gurriel. The long-time Cuban star was considered a clear MLB talent, though there were questions about how productive he’d be at a relatively advanced age.

There have been a few ups and downs, but Gurriel has generally provided strong offensive output. He was at his best in 2019, when he launched 31 home runs and slashed .298/.343/.541 in 612 plate appearances.

Gurriel could have opted into arbitration this past offseason, but instead negotiated a $300K boost over and above the $8MM salary he was already promised. His contract still provides for termination at the end of the 2020 season, thus preventing the Astros from retaining him through arbitration.

It remains to be seen if the Houston club will share Gurriel’s interest in a reunion. Cost efficiency will surely be a primary consideration for the data-driven club, which will be looking to account for the departure of numerous big bats. We haven’t had any opportunity to see the roster-building proclivities of new GM James Click. The former Rays exec certainly came up in a culture that rewarded creative tinkering over big splashes.

Nearly Half The Astros’ Starting Lineup Is Up For Free Agency This Winter

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The Astros’ run atop the AL West has been buoyed by the presence of one of MLB’s most prolific sluggers, George Springer, and a revolving door of steady veterans in the corners. (Yes, you may insert your jokes here about what else has propelled their run of winning seasons, but the aim here is to take an actual look at the looming roster conundrums they’ll face.) Michael Brantley and Josh Reddick flanked Springer in 2019, while other iterations of the club have included Nori Aoki and Marwin Gonzalez in left field. Over the past few years, the since-traded Jake Marisnick has been a glove-first reserve option to help stabilize the mix.

Now, the Astros stand to not only lose Springer to free agency this coming winter, but also both Brantley and Reddick. Springer will hit the open market for the first time after reaching six years of MLB service, while Brantley’s two-year, $32MM deal and Reddick’s four-year, $52MM pact are both set to expire.  Things get even murkier for the Astros with the impending departure of Yuli Gurriel, whose initial five-year deal with the team comes to a close with the 2020 season. Gurriel agreed to a new one-year deal overwriting the final season of that previous pact last offseason, and he’s set to join Springer, Brantley and Reddick this coming winter.

It’s rare that any team, let alone a perennial World Series contender, enters an offseason with the potential of turning over 44 percent of its starting lineup, but that’s the precise situation in which newly hired GM James Click will find himself before year’s end.

On the plus side, the ’Stros have some likely replacements in house already. Kyle Tucker, 23, has been regularly ranked among the game’s elite prospects since being selected just three picks after Houston took Alex Bregman in the 2015 draft. (Bregman, of course, was a college player while Tucker was coming out of high school, hence the discrepancy in their timeline to the big leagues.)

A 2018 cup of coffee for Tucker didn’t produce much in the way of results (.141/.236/.203, 72 plate appearances), but he had a big Triple-A season in 2019 and hit .269/.319/.537 in an identical sample of plate appearances. In 998 PAs at the Triple-A level, Tucker has a .297/.375/.571 slash with 58 homers and 50 steals (in 59 tries). Tucker has All-Star potential that he hasn’t yet had a regular chance to show off due to the team’s largely set outfield mix. At the same time, the Astros have steadfastly refused to consider making him available in trades. He should get his opportunity in 2021 at the latest, and his ability to play all three outfield spots (even if he fits best in a corner long term) give the Astros some flexibility in pursuing other options. The club doesn’t have many pure outfield options right now, having traded the likes of J.D. Davis, Ramon Laureano, Derek Fisher and Teoscar Hernandez away in recent years.

At first base, the club could turn things over to Abraham Toro, who hit .306/.393/.513 in the pitcher-friendly Double-A Texas League before clubbing Pacific Coast League opposition at a .424/.506/.606 clip in 79 PAs. Toro didn’t do much in limited MLB time at the plate, but his bat appears mostly MLB-ready. He’s a third base prospect with questions about his glovework there, and some scouting reports (including those at FanGraphs, MLB.com and Baseball America) suggest that he could fit better at first base or (in FanGraphs’ case) left field. Yordan Alvarez is technically an option in left field or at first base, but the Astros feel better about him as a regular designated hitter and may not be keen on deploying his glove on an everyday basis.

Assuming Tucker and Toro are entrusted with two spots in the lineup, the Astros will still need to bring in at least two everyday players via trade or free agency, and they’ll need to do so with some semblance of cost efficiency. Houston already has nearly $117MM on the books in 2021 and more than $134MM worth of luxury tax obligations. That’s before factoring in arbitration raises on the 2020 salaries of Roberto Osuna ($10MM), Carlos Correa ($8MM), Lance McCullers Jr. ($4.1MM), Chris Devenski ($2MM), Aledmys Diaz ($2.6MM), Joe Biagini ($1MM) and Dustin Garneau ($650K).

Re-signing any of Gurriel, Brantley or Reddick would fill one spot without requiring a particularly long-term commitment, although Reddick’s bat has waned in recent seasons. C.J. Cron and Jake Lamb will both be options at first base, while Nick Markakis, Kevin Pillar and old friends Marwin Gonzalez and Hunter Pence represent short-term outfield possibilities. Springer and Mookie Betts are the top options on the outfield market, but signing either would likely bring the ’Stros within striking distance of a second straight season of luxury penalization. More affordable names include Marcell Ozuna, Joc Pederson and Jackie Bradley Jr.

Trade candidates are a bit more difficult to suss out this far in advance, although it wouldn’t be a surprise if Corey Dickerson (Marlins), Ender Inciarte (Braves), Gregory Polanco (Pirates), Brian Goodwin (Angels), Eddie Rosario (Twins) or Kyle Schwarber (Cubs) were to appear on the rumor circuit this summer.

Regardless of how Click and his staff choose to proceed, the Astros seem likely to be in the hunt for multiple regulars this winter, and their notable arbitration class and crop of high-priced 2021 salaries will necessitate a creative and/or low-cost addition or two.

Camp Battles: Astros’ 26th Man

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The Astros final roster spot will be a two-man showdown between Myles Straw and Garrett Stubbs, per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart. Of course, this particular “camp battle” has as much to do with the pieces around the players as the players themselves. For that matter, it may come down to a conversation between Dusty Baker and new GM James Click. The two are likely still developing a cohesive philosophy when it comes to roster construction. That they have an extra roster spot in the 26th man this season ought to help smooth the waters. Still, there’s a decision to be made here, and as with many clubs, the decision may come down to just how many catchers they want to have on the roster. Let’s take a deeper dive into the candidates. 

  • One would think that Myles Straw is the frontrunner to make the opening day roster. Without him, the Astros don’t have a natural backup for George Springer in center. With Jake Marisnick now on the Mets, Straw is the likeliest candidate to fill that void as a pinch-runner and late-game defensive replacement. Josh Reddick would probably fill that role as a backup were Straw not to make the team, though it would be surprising if that were the case for the entire season. Even if Straw doesn’t make the cut, expect him to occupy a roster spot at times throughout the season.
  • Stubbs, 26, has spent the last two seasons in Triple-A, and he’s certainly ready enough to get some time as a backup in 2020. He has a good approach at the plate, will take his walks and doesn’t strike out (16.2% K-rate last season). He’s reliable enough defensively, but it’s hard to see where the Astros would benefit from rostering a third catcher. Martin Maldonado will be the primary starter, and he could be used as a defense replacement in games he doesn’t start. On the other hand, they may risk burning their bench by pinch-hitting for Maldonado in spots. Still, Dustin Garneau is on hand for those occasions. Garneau has some power potential, but Kyle Tucker or Josh Reddick will be the first lefty bat off the bench, while Aledmys Diaz will be the guy from the right side. One backup catcher ought to suffice.
  • The sleeper candidate here is Abraham Toro. He debuted last season with a .218/.303/.385 line over a mere 85 plate appearances. Toro offers a quality combination of speed/power and the ability to play either corner in the infield as well as second base in a pinch. He’s a switch-hitter, which provides some utility beyond the overlapping skillset he shares with Diaz or Yuli Gurriel, but he also has options available. The Astros, therefore, will feel no pressure to keep him on the major league roster. That said, Toro gained some popularity last season, a quality the Astros are short on these days. Having a young player that fans can root for unequivocally may get Toro an extra look.

We’re assuming here, of course, that the Astros will go with an eight-man bullpen. That’s hardly a foregone conclusion, though it’s the likeliest result in the case of most teams, and given that the Astros have some uncertainty at the back end of their rotation, they may enjoy having an extra arm to leverage until the number four and five starters establish some consistency.

Yuli Gurriel Won’t Opt Into Arbitration

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3:26pm: Gurriel negotiated an additional $300K on top of the $8MM that was originally guaranteed, per Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com (via Twitter).

The new contract is structured as a straight one-year pact, although that doesn’t come with a lesser tax hit as one might think; a person familiar with the contract tells MLBTR that for luxury tax purposes, the termination of the original contract comes with a fee that amounts to an “upcharge” — the size of which covers the gap between his new $8.3MM salary and his previous $9.5MM luxury hit.

The new arrangement provides Gurriel with a slight boost in salary while avoiding any possibility of a contentious hearing that might’ve stemmed from opting into arbitration. The clause stipulating that Gurriel become a free agent at the end of the contract and his previous awards bonus package all carry over to the new deal. He’ll be a free agent next winter.

2:41pm: Yuli Gurriel’s five-year, $47.5MM contract with the Astros affords him the opportunity to opt into MLB’s arbitration system once eligible. But he’ll forgo that right and play out the 2020 season on the original $8MM salary dictated by the contract, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.

Although Gurriel will have only four-plus years of service time when his contract expires at the conclusion of the 2020 season — as opposed to the six years typically required to become a free agent — he’ll nevertheless head to the open market next winter. Gurriel’s contract stipulates that he be released by the Astros upon completion of the deal at the end of the 2020 season, thus allowing him an opportunity to once again test free agency.

One of the premier players in Cuba throughout the 2000s, Gurriel left his home country in early 2016 alongside his younger brother, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Both have since realized their dream of playing in the Majors. The elder Gurriel has remained a productive hitter into his mid-30s and, in 2019, turned in the best season of his career at the plate. In 612 plate appearances as Houston’s primary first baseman, he slashed .298/.343/.541 with 31 home runs, 40 doubles and a pair of triples.

AL Notes: Twins, Astros, Gurriel, Angels

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Although the Twins’ have enjoyed a rapid turnaround from 78 wins a season ago to 101 wins and a division title this year, that breakout has roots tracing back to 2009, writes Dan Hayes of The Athletic. A decade ago, the Twins landed a transformative class of international amateurs—Miguel Sano, Max Kepler, and Jorge Polanco—that blossomed into franchise cornerstones and 2019 stars. At the time, the $4.65MM the team doled out to land the three 16-year-olds was uncharacteristic for the Twins franchise, which had largely been a non-factor in the international scene; the team had no academy in the Dominican Republic and had virtually no connections with the players’ pseudo-agents. That made it especially difficult to land Sano, a coveted prospect who commanded a $3.15MM bonus and captured the attention of nearly every MLB club. On the other hand, there was less competition for Kepler, a German-born prospect, and Polanco, a scrawny teenager who lacked the projectability of Sano. Of course, those signings have delivered immense value to a team that has ridden Polanco, Kepler, and Sano to the franchise’s first division title since 2010. According to Baseball-Reference’s version of WAR, those three have been the 2019 Twins’ first-, third-, and seventh-most valuable players, combining to contribute 12.8 wins of value to the team.

  • At age 35, Astros first baseman Yuli Gurriel could be playing himself into another contract with Houston’s club, writes The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan. Gurriel has enjoyed a career year at an age where he should be declining, perhaps a reflection of his acclimation to the game in the United States. The 2020 season will be the last under his current contract, a five-year, $47MM deal inked prior to 2016, when he defected to the U.S. as one of Cuba’s most accomplished players. He’s by no means the star of a stacked lineup in Houston—he most often slots into the sixth spot for the Astros—but he has delivered solid offensive value, thanks in part to an in-season mechanical change, a focus on lifting the ball, and a heightened focus on preparation.
  • With eliminated teams beginning to consider offseason decisions, the Angels will have to decide whether to protect 26-year-old infielder Jose Rojas or expose him to the Rule 5 Draft. He posted career-best numbers at Triple-A this year, slugging 31 home runs and a .293/.362/.577 batting line. Mike DiGiovanna of Baseball America takes a look at Rojas’s case, pointing out that teams around baseball are having some difficulty tuning their evaluation of Triple-A players to the drastically altered offensive environment at the level. Since Triple-A leagues introduced the MLB-used baseball for the 2019 season, power numbers have universally spiked in Triple-A. With the reliability of raw home run numbers in question, DiGiovanna points out that teams are increasingly reliant on their scouts’ eyes in their valuation of Triple-A players.

AL Injury Notes: Cruz, Gurriel, Springer

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The Twins fell 6-2 in 11 innings to their chaser in the AL Central last night, yet they remain 5 1/2 games ahead of the Indians for the division crown. Minnesota is just 6-8 head-to-head against their eastern rival with five matchups remaining, all in the next ten days. More troublesome to the Twins, they may be without Nelson Cruz for at least these next couple showdowns. Cruz exited the ballgame in the tenth inning with wrist soreness, but he’s being listed as day-to-day, per MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park (via Twitter). Cruz carries an MVP-caliber bat when he’s healthy, arguably the best DH in the game with a .305/.385/.631 mark that pairs nicely with his traditional counting stats of 35 home runs and 92 RBIs. The wrist has been an issue for Cruz, however, as it’s already landed him on the IL twice. He was diagnosed with a ruptured ECU tendon back in March, but manager Rocco Baldelli insists the injury is nothing significant, tweets The Athletic’s Dan Hayes. Even minor injuries can have significant impact this time of year, of course, so let’s check in on a couple of injury scares for Minnesota’s potential dance partner in the upcoming ALDS.

  • Yuli Gurriel’s thunderous second half in Houston should return after just a brief interlude. The Astros first baseman left yesterday’s game with left hamstring discomfort, but he is considered day-to-day, per Mark Berman of Fox Houston. After authoring marks of .277/.314/.482 in the first half that fell just far enough below his career averages to spark fears of age-based decline for the 35-year-old, Yuli came out with a blistering second half: .351/.409/.660, pulling his overall productivity mark up to 135 wRC+, the 23rd highest mark in the majors. Gurriel’s leveling up paired with the arrival of Yordan Alvarez has made an already-strong Astros lineup certifiable.
  • In a separate tweet, Berman provides video of George Springer taking batting practice and having himself a time. This should be a welcome sight for the Houston faithful, who saw Springer suffer a mild concussion while colliding into the wall Tuesday night. It’s been a career year for Springer in this, his age-28 season, as he’s put up his most complete season to date with a line of .297/.389/.573. His 155 wRC+ pegs him as the 7th most-productive hitter in the majors this season, joining four of his Houston brethren in the top-25 among qualified hitters (Alvarez doesn’t yet qualify). From the looks of it, Springer should return to the Houston lineup shortly.

Agency Changes: Gurriels, Calhoun

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Here are the latest agency changes from around the game. As always, you can find updated representation information in MLBTR’s Agency Database.

  • Both of the Gurriel brothers — Yuli Gurriel of the Astros and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. of the Blue Jays — have hired Magnus Sports, according to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter). The elder Gurriel is closest to free agency, though he still has two full seasons to go on his five-year contract with the Houston organization. He’s also already 34 years of age. His little brother is still just 25 years old and cracked the bigs for the first time last year, turning in a promising initial showing with the Jays. His contract takes him through the 2023 campaign, with at least one year of arbitration eligibility remaining thereafter.
  • Meanwhile, Rangers power-hitting prospect Willie Calhoun has hired MVP Sports Group, per Robert Murray of The Athletic (Twitter link). The 24-year-old has seen brief tastes of the majors in each of the past two seasons but has yet to earn a full showcase at the game’s highest level. He’s seen as a high-end talent with the bat who still needs to iron things out defensively. It seems Calhoun will ultimately be given a shot in left field, but he’ll need to bounce back from a 2018 power outage (11 home runs in 578 total plate appearances) in order to force his way back onto the active roster.

Injury Notes: Mets, Conforto, Gurriel, E. Jimenez, Gamel

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Mets outfielder Michael Conforto could come off the disabled list as early as Thursday, manager Mickey Callaway announced (via Tim Healey of Newsday). Conforto, who’s working back from the left shoulder surgery he underwent last September, is already set to rejoin the Mets in New York, Healey was among those to report Sunday. It seems he’ll avoid a rehab assignment, then, and if last year’s breakout carries over, Conforto will once again pair with Yoenis Cespedes to serve as one of the Mets’ two best hitters this season. Plus, he’ll further deepen a Mets outfield that also includes Cespedes, Jay Bruce, Brandon Nimmo and Juan Lagares.

Meanwhile, Mets reliever Anthony Swarzak will undergo an MRI on his sore left oblique on Monday, per Tim Britton of The Athletic. Swarzak, who inked a two-year, $14MM deal with the Mets in free agency, suffered the injury Saturday.

More injury updates from around the game…

  • Astros manager A.J. Hinch told Brian McTaggart of MLB.com and other reporters Sunday that he expects first baseman Yuli Gurriel to make his 2018 debut on Tuesday. Gurriel has been recovering from surgery on his left hand since late February, and because he’s not on the DL, he has been able to serve his season-opening suspension at the same time. Major League Baseball gave Gurriel a five-game ban as a result of an insensitive gesture he directed at then-Dodger Yu Darvish during the World Series last year.
  • White Sox outfield prospect Eloy Jimenez strained his left pectoral muscle and will lay off baseball activities for a week, the team announced Saturday. Jimenez, whom MLB.com ranks as the game’s fourth-best prospect, previously missed two weeks in spring training on account of knee tendinitis. Although the 21-year-old Jimenez hasn’t even played above the Double-A level yet, there’s optimism he’ll debut in Chicago sometime this season. He’ll begin the year in Double-A after he works his way back in game shape via extended spring training action, per the Sox.
  • Mariners corner outfielder Ben Gamel is recovering nicely from the strained right oblique he suffered March 2, manager Scott Servais informed Greg Johns of MLB.com and other reporters Sunday. Gamel is on track to be in Triple-A Tacoma’s lineup when its season begins on Thursday. Once he completes his rehab in the minors, he’ll be part of a Mariners outfield mix that also includes future Hall of Famer Ichiro Suzuki, who has started all three of their games in left in place of Gamel. Ichiro’s playing time figures to decrease upon Gamel’s return, though Servais didn’t want to discuss that Sunday, per Johns.

West Notes: Souza, Lincecum, Halos, Carter, Gurriel

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Diamondbacks outfielder Steven Souza Jr. left the team’s game Wednesday with an apparent right shoulder injury, Richard Morin of the Arizona Republic reports. There’s no word on the severity yet, but the Diamondbacks are left to hope it’s nothing serious after acquiring Souza from the Rays last month. The 28-year-old Souza posted his best season in 2017, hitting .239/.351/.459 with 30 home runs in 617 plate appearances en route to 3.7 fWAR. If healthy, he should help make up for the D-backs’ offseason loss of outfielder J.D. Martinez, who signed with the Red Sox.

And now for the latest from the AL West…

  • Rangers reliever Tim Lincecum doesn’t expect to be ready for Opening Day, which he revealed Tuesday after throwing two innings of batting practice (via TR Sullivan of MLB.com). “Doesn’t look like it,” he said. “I still have some stuff to refine. I wasn’t extremely happy with the day. I was happy with the level of work. I’ve got a lot of refining to do.” Lincecum is only two weeks removed from signing with the Rangers, and he, of course, didn’t pitch competitively at all in 2017. Tuesday’s BP session was his second since joining the Rangers, and he’ll need at least one more before potentially pitching in a minor league game.
  • First baseman Chris Carter is unlikely to make the Angels, Maria Guardado of MLB.com writes. That’s not surprising, given that Carter’s a minor league signee who’s not on the Halos’ 40-man roster. Guardado notes that there’s no obvious path to playing time for Carter at first in Anaheim, which has Albert Pujols and Luis Valbuena. Plus, those two and Shohei Ohtani figure to be among their designated hitter options, taking away another potential route to the majors for Carter. The 31-year-old Carter will be able to refuse a minor league assignment if he doesn’t make the Halos, though he did spend a solid chunk of last season with the A’s Triple-A affiliate. That came just one year after the then-Brewer co-led the National League in home runs (41). Because of his dreadful 2017, which he began with the Yankees, Carter went unsigned until late February.
  • Astros first baseman Yuli Gurriel, on the shelf the past few weeks because of left hand surgery, is progressing in his recovery, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com writes. He’s still likely to begin the season on the disabled list, however, according to McTaggart, and then he’ll have to serve a five-game suspension for an insensitive gesture directed at then-Dodgers pitcher Yu Darvish in last year’s World Series. The Astros are likely to use Marwin Gonzalez at first in Gurriel’s absence, and J.D. Davis and Tyler White are currently fighting for a backup role. “It’s 1A and 1B, it’s not like one is separating themselves from the other. Eventually, we’ll have to make a decision,” manager A.J. Hinch said of Davis and White on Wednesday (via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle).

Yuli Gurriel To Undergo Hamate Surgery

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Astros first baseman Yuli Gurriel is undergoing surgery today to remove the hook of his left hamate bone, skipper A.J. Hinch told reporters including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (Twitter link).

Houston GM Jeff Luhnow says the team expects to be without Gurriel for about five to six weeks, per Jake Kaplan of The Athletic (Twitter links). Clearly, then, the rehab period will delay Gurriel’s start to the 2018 season. In this case, says Luhnow, it was a years-old injury that only just became symptomatic.

While injuries to the hamate — a hand bone near the wrist — are common for hitters, that doesn’t mean they aren’t reasonably significant. Those interested in learning more should check out this detailed examination of the subject from Michael Jong of SB Nation.

That limited recovery time is obviously promising, though hamate injuries have a reputation for sapping a hitter’s power upon his return to action. This interesting look from of SB Nation’s Stuart Wallace suggests, though, that any shorter-term loss of pop does not generally turn into a long-term impediment.

For the ’Stros, it’s perhaps at least preferable for the injury to occur now rather than during the season. Gurriel will still need to serve a five-game suspension, though the injury situation may allow the team to manage that more easily.

Regardless of the specifics, Houston will have to create a fill-in plan. An open-market option seems unlikely with so many internal possibilities. Marwin Gonzalez could step in at first, with the team also giving some opportunities to Tyler White, A.J. Reed, or J.D. Davis.

Though clearly the preference would be for the 33-year-old Gurriel to pick up where he left off in 2017, the Astros likely won’t mind the idea of getting a longer look at some of those players. And any hit to the team’s expectations will be minimal. While Gurriel produced a strong .299/.332/.486 slash line with 18 home runs last year, he’s not exactly a top-end hitter as a first baseman. (A third bagger by trade, Gurriel has been pushed to the other corner by Alex Bregman.)

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