Benson Dealt To Orioles; Zito Implications?

Many of you have already noticed by now that Newsday is reporting that the Mets traded Kris Benson to the Orioles for Jorge Julio and John Maine.  A tip of the cap to Orioles Hangout; I'm pretty sure they confirmation first.

The question on most people's minds is this: is the Benson swap the initial movement indicating a trade of Barry Zito to the Mets?  If you recall, my Mets source indicated yesterday that Benson would be traded to Baltimore to acquire a prospect to Billy Beane's liking.  I've got word out to a couple of sources to see if anything has changed.  In the meantime, let's see what we can deduce.

First off, would the A's have use for John Maine?  The 24 year-old righty starter was ranked 6th in the Orioles' organization by Baseball America entering the 2005 season.  According to BA back then, Maine needed to refine his command and had a ceiling as a #3 starter.  They also mentioned that he was "probably a #4 or 5 guy on a first-division club."  Maine pitched kind of like a #4 starter in 128 innings at Triple A Ottawa in '05.  He posted a 4.56 ERA with improved control while maintaining a solid K rate.

I haven't projected Maine myself yet, but ZiPS thought he'd throw 153 innings of 4.41 ball in his first extended trial with the Orioles.  I think that's great value for the price.  For basis of comparison, Maine's 2005 doesn't look terribly different from Danny Haren's 2004.  Haren was certainly better, but it's a fair comparison.  Interestingly, Baseball Prospectus lists these comparables for Maine: Joel Pineiro (2002), A.J. Burnett (2001), Juan Marichal (1961), Bob Gibson (1960), and strangely, Jorge Julio (2003).  I know the A's already have a stable of starters, but Maine probably needs a little more time and a team can never have too much starting pitching depth.

I would speculate that the Mets would hang onto Jorge Julio to serve as Aaron Heilman's replacement.  While most analysis today indicates that the Benson trade simply means Heilman starts for the Mets, I am skeptical.  According to MetsBlog earlier this month:

"The problem is that the only person who seems to see Heilman as a starter is Heilman.  Nearly all scouts and experts that I talked with all explained the same thing: Heilman's repertoire is too hittable during his second time through a lineup."

Should Minaya package up Victor Diaz with someone to acquire a top flight prospect suitable to the A's, I could really see this Zito deal coming to fruition.   

Comments

[Bobby]

Zito for Milledge and Maine/Heilman is all that makes sense. Heilman, Maine and some 8-10 range prospect isn't going to cut it.

[Bdid]

Buster (I'm never Right) Olney thinks this could mean Weaver. Which, to me, makes more sense, unless it's not going to cost Milledge. I'd take Weaver, Julio, and this kid for Benson. I mean it's not that big of a move.

I would rather have Zito for Heilman and Maine and the Diaz trade.

[Erikfromdabronx]

No offense, but if Beane was getting Milledge, the deal would have already happened.

[Bobby]

You know this how?

No offence, but Milledge is the only player the Mets can offer that is worth Zito.

[RumorMonger]

I don't know which of you is right, but there's more than one way to skin a cat. I could see the Mets somehow getting a different prospect that the A's want.

[Erikfromdabronx]

You know this how?

Why? Because if Heilman and Milledge were offered to Beane, the trade would have already transpired.

Or are you saying that's not enough for one of the most overrated (and consequently overvalued) pitchers in the game?

[Erikfromdabronx]

Monger, any word on Jeff Weaver or is Buster Olney barking up a cherry tree?

[RumorMonger]

Word is that Weaver is a backup plan if they can't get Zito. Beane is high on Maine though. DaVanon should be the next piece I think...

[junbun]

i think olneys comments were probably speculation more than anything. the question for me on this deal... theres no way they can get the prospects needed from simply trading diaz...

[Erikfromdabronx]

"…admittedly, i have been a tad out of the loop the last few days…so i am not very aware of what may or may not be going down here, but i will say this - and i am not sure how else to put it other than – the mets will not get zito this off-season without parting with OF Lastings Milledge…"

-Matt Cerrone, Metsblog

[RumorMonger]

I think you're right junbun, but Diaz and another prospect might net something worthwhile.

[Erikfromdabronx]

I think the REAL concern I have as a Mets fan is the ramifications of trading away every single flippin' prospect that's in our system. At the present, it's Pelfrey and Milledge. Now, you trade Diaz and Milledge... what thee paraquat is left? Minaya really needs to draw a line and say "across this line, you do not... also, Beane, Zito is not the correct nomenclature."

Too much Lebowski...

[GuyInNY]

For whatever its worth, I think I saw a guy who looked alot like Zito in the subway this morning.

As for the trade, Julio replacing Heilman seems to make sense. It would be a classic case of sell-high. Do I think Heilman's as good as his second half indicates? No. But, I think he's very good out of the pen and most everybody would agree with that. And is Victor Diaz/Kris Benson too high a price for Zito? Not at all. (Unless of course Omar commits a masterpiece and gets someone like Scott Baker for Diaz and a Scobie-type. By the way, that's pure speculation.)

So long as we don't part with Milledge (and I cannot imagine him, Pelfrey, Soler,or Humber going anywhere), I think Zito would be a great fit for the Mets. Esp. if we could still add another arm (I just don't like Zambrano/Trachsel on the backend of a playoff team. I like Weaver-NYC the Redux even less.)

Here's hoping for Zito!

[Bobby]

Because if Heilman and Milledge were offered to Beane, the trade would have already transpired.

Maybe. And if they aren't ever offered then the Mets arent getting Zito

[Erikfromdabronx]

And if they aren't ever offered then the Mets arent getting Zito

I'm not buying this, but wouldn't Beane wait until the all-star break before making a deal? I'm sure teams will be willing to give up more than a Lastings Milledge.

[Zonis]

I just do not see why the A's would do the trade, especially with out Milledge in the deal. Milledge is the only reason the deal would make any sense at all.

The A's are going for it THIS year. If Zito is traded, they need players that are ready NOW to replace him AND improve the team's chances for a World Series in 2006 and beyond. Otherwise, why bother? Why not just head into the season with two #1 (Zito/Harden) pitchers, a #2 (Haren) pitcher and 2 #3's (Blanton, Loaiza).

Remember the trade is not for 1 year of Barry Zito.

The trade is for 1 Year of Barry Zito + two top 35 Draft Picks + First Dibs to sign Zito to a contract (no pre-trade negitiating window).

It doesn't matter if the Mets do not count the two draft picks comming to them as part of the value they are recieving if they desire to lock up Zito, what matters is that is what the A's are giving up, and thats worth a lot to them.

The A's could use those picks to get another Blanton, Swisher, Pennington, Buck, Street, Crosby, Bonderman, and so-on.

On the other hand, while the A's minor league system is thin with pitching at the top, it has enough on the bottom to substain itself. So sending low level prospects in the deal would not be as intriguing to the A's as, say, in the 2003 or 2004 off season.

Then again, maybe Pelfrey will be a PTBNL with Milledge? Probably not, but thats always a possibility (think Bonderman to Tigers).

I just do not see why the A's would do that trade. Quantity doesn't equate quality, and since the A's already have a lot of players in Single and Double A who could pan out, they don't need more "can they pan out" guys.

[Erikfromdabronx]

Then again, maybe Pelfrey will be a PTBNL with Milledge?

Pelfrey is going nowhere. Not only can Mike not be traded for a year (he just signed a few weeks ago) but he's also a potential Ace.

Yes, I agree with much of what you say, especially the part about Beane being patient.

[VodkaShuffle]

But really, wouldn't these moves (and rumored ones) by the Mets signal that they are trying to find a way to get Zito without giving up Milledge? Sounds like it to me. I mean, c'mon...the dude has one year left on his deal and at mid-season he will definitely NOT be worth a Milledge. The longer Zito stays with the A's, the lower HIS value gets.

[Erikfromdabronx]

At this point, who the Funk knows what's going on?

Earth, Wind and Fire maybe?

[Zonis]

brainkrieg knows!

http://tinyurl.com/8vj5c

[Bobby]

The only way I see this deal as the first step to a Zito deal is if the Mets are refusing to give up Heilman. Maine to Oakland with Milledge and the Mets get to keep Heilman. That's the only scenerio I see.

[DrBox]

"The trade is for 1 Year of Barry Zito + two top 35 Draft Picks + First Dibs to sign Zito."
You don't get the draft picks if you sign Zito. And don't you have to offer arbitration to get draft picks?
Regardless, the trade of EVERY quality player with 1 year or less on their contract has the same draft pick stipulation. The current sensibility is that these type of players don't get much in return. No reason Zito should be any different.

[DrBox]

My point on arbitration is simply (if my understanding is correct) that Oakland would NOT be giving up draft choices because they aren't goiong to offer him arbitration anyway.

[Bobby]

There is not any question that the A's would offer Zito arbitration. The A's would not have to worry about Zito accepting arbitration.

Whoever has Zito in 2006 will get 2 picks for him leaving. If he signs an extension they wouldnt get the picks but they wouldnt have to worry about giving up a lot for 1 year of Zito

[Erikfromdabronx]

"There is not any question that the A's would offer Zito arbitration."

Bull. There's always a question. You assume too much... Milledge and Heilman... arbitration...

Look at the facts, shall we?

1. Milledge and Heilman are still Mets, even though the Metropolitans are now dying for another starter. If this is indeed the deal, then...

2. Why would the Mets be looking to get Jeff Davanon?

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/story/384483p-326332c.html

They have a glut of outfielders. Nady, Diaz, Redman, et cetera. It doesn't take a genius to deduce the Mets are investigating a trade involving Diaz or Nady.

[Jonathan]

...I forget where I read it but I believe there was a reported trade discussion between the Os and As a couple of years back when Maine's value was at a high point, and, it was said that Beane just flatout doesn't like Maine. This seems likely since many scouts have not liked Maine too much in spite of his A-AA success. I just can't believe that the Mets were just a "Maine" away from grabbing Zito. If that were the case, I think the Zito would be a Met with or without this Benson trade.

[RumorMonger]

Given the low perceived value of Maine, I would think Beane would be especially interested. But anyway I was just quoting my Mets guy on that one...

[Bobby]

"Bull."

No, it's not.

Zito is going to get offered deals of 5 years and 70+ mil. There is no chance he'd accept 12 mil in arbitration so there will be zero risk involved for the A's.

Sure, if Zito gets hurt it's another story. But if he's healthy I wouldnt put up $1 on the A's not offering arbitration if the odds were at 10,000:1

[Zonis]

Of course the A's would offer Arbitration to Zito. They'd be crazy not to.

But, they would likely wait for the last day. Most likely what will happen is Zito will be signed before the Arbitration Deadline, making it a moot point.

I did not say that "1 Year of Barry Zito + two top 35 Draft Picks + First Dibs to sign Zito" was the value to the team acquiring him, I said that was the value of Zito to the A's.

[Erikfromdabronx]

Zito's value is what other teams say it is... not the other way around.

For Beane, the market will probably bear more fruit at the trading deadline.

[Zonis]

You are wrong Erik. Zito's value is exactly what the A's say it is, because they are in the position of stregnth.

The A's do not have, nor do they really want, to trade Zito. They want to use him for the 2006 season and make the playoffs and beyond. And any team that wants Zito will have to pay the price.

Zito will not be traded just for the sake of trading him.

[Jonathan]

Just need to mention that Zito's velocity and repetoire allow him to be one of the most durable pitchers in the MLs today. He has quite a tidy streal of 200+ IP right now.

[Manny Trillo's Cousin]

Who cares about the fucken Mutts? They're a 4th place team in a 5 team division. Big fucken yawn.

Even odds the 06 Marlins finish ahead of them in the standings.

[Jason]

Looks like a bitter Marlins fan (jonathan).

As for the Benson deal - this better lead the way to a Zito deal otherwise it doesn't make much sense. i don't feel comfortable with heilman, trax, zambrano starting 3 out of 5 days. Maine, Diaz, Heilman would be the most I would do to acquire Zito at this point, assuming we lock Zito up long term. I'd rather hold onto Heilman but if it nets me zito then I can live with it. I can't see Milledge being involved in any deal. in fact, if this thing goes down I wouldn't be surprised to see Milledge playing RF come opening day.

[Erikfromdabronx]

Even odds the 06 Marlins finish ahead of them in the standings.

Even odds that you are a screwball.

[Jonathan]

I think you have your bitter fans mixed up. I'm not a Marlins fan. As far as Heilman, the Mets have been trying to trade him all offseason trying to see if there's anyone who bites. Even Mets fans realize that he's better suited for the bullpen. He doesn't go through the order very well 2-3 times thru. But is a great player from the bullpen. I can't see Beane subtracting Zito without a serious pitching prospect coming back at least. Maine and/or Heilman doesn't do it for me for the As. I think they should be asking for a Pelfrey or Kazmir (oops!).

[Erikfromdabronx]

As far as Heilman, the Mets have been trying to trade him all offseason trying to see if there's anyone who bites.

WRONG. Stop talking about my favorite team, as it's readily apparent you don't know jack.

[junbun]

wrong? then why is it every mets rumor has heilmans name in it?

[DrBox]

We don't know what the market will look like a year from now; however, teams, for whatever reason, are hot over Burnett's "stuff" and his potential; Zito doesn't have that stuff and has established himself as really a 2/3 starter - teams still think Burnett's a 1. I'm not convinced, in this market, Zito would have gotten 13 mill.

[Erikfromdabronx]

wrong? then why is it every mets rumor has heilmans name in it?

Because who else would the Mets include? Milledge? Yeah... that's gonna happen.

My point is that we weren't actively looking to deal him as Jonathan alleges. Quite the contrary...

[Jonathan]

I'm not suggesting that the Mets don't like him. I'm just saying that he's early enough in his career where he could go one of two directions: become a SP or a RP. I think the conservative bet says that he becomes a pretty good late-inning RP. He hit the MLs too late for him to have much value in "potential" for much longer than this year. He is 27 going on 28.

He had a good year last year, but, he was boosted by the fact that he was used in the bullpen which left him less exposed which invariably suppresses his ERA and inflates his value somewhat. It's to the Met's benefit that they try to deal him this offseason. Maybe that's why you hear his name linked to every player worth trading for like Tejada, Abreu, etc.

And as far as the Mets never possibly dealing Milledge, the Mets of all teams has a long history of dealing top prospects no matter what the hype is. Kazmir is only the most recent name. The returns have been mixed in that policy, but, I can easily see the Mets dealing Milledge in exchange for a player like, say, Tejada.

[DrBox]

So why did the Mets make this trade? In this market, Benson isn't that expensive, he's a capable 4/5 starter, and all they got in return is a run of the mill bullpen arm and a prospect who Baseball America now sees as a future bullpen pitcher?

[bdid]

Hey Jonathan...Just to prove you wrong, and I really don't care..but...

From the NY Times...

Through his agent, Mark Rodgers, Heilman has expressed a desire to start again and has asked the Mets to trade him if he is not given that opportunity. Though the Mets have the leverage, they view Heilman as part of their long-term plans and may be trying to make him happy. Several teams asked Minaya about Heilman, but each time they were turned away.

That doesn't look like a team "shopping" a player around, now does it?

[bdid]

Hey Jonathan...Just to prove you wrong, and I really don't care..but...

From the NY Times...

Through his agent, Mark Rodgers, Heilman has expressed a desire to start again and has asked the Mets to trade him if he is not given that opportunity. Though the Mets have the leverage, they view Heilman as part of their long-term plans and may be trying to make him happy. Several teams asked Minaya about Heilman, but each time they were turned away.

That doesn't look like a team "shopping" a player around, now does it?

[Jonathan]

I guess I'm just convinced that Heilman is not all that Mets fans make him out to be. He sort of fits Benson's profile as a former top draft pick who has yet to live up to his billing. He did a fine job last year in a limited role, but, he's really better off in the bullpen. The Mets just don't have top pitching prospects in their system right now who are close. Heilman might be the "closest" to the majors, but, it doesn't mean he's just that good. According to some Mets fans, Heilman is akin to Garland-level "good". That is just not going to happen.

[Jonathan]

Case-in-point, the arrival of Maine may be seen as a good thing to some Mets fans who regard him as at least a former top prospect. Right now, if Maine was still in the Oriole system, Maine wouldn't even crack their top 10. What does that say about the Mets?

[Bdid]

I'm not saying that Heilman is great...just that the Mets aren't looking to shop him...unless it is for Zito or Manny. I think he turned a corner last year, and is ready to be that 4 or 5 starter and go about .500 Maybe 10-10 or a game or two above or below. I don't think you have to worry about the Mets though. Pelfrey was considered the best pitcher in last year's draft. His stuff is plain nasty, and he does have a Ceiling higher than Garland, who wasn't exactly an all star before last year. And he is, at most, a year away, and some feel he will be a September call-up. Maine was the #2 prospect for the O's after '04, but a rough year year dropped him to like 15 at the end of last year. You just never know with these young kids.

[Jonathan]

You're right about Maine slipping after he hit AAA, but, a big part of him dropping out of the Os top 10 prospect has a lot to do with their great draft last year. They instantly got maybe 5 players who placed in the top 10, and, 2 of those are in their top 5. One of which is a young 17 yr old kid who is a ways away but he throws a 96-98 mph FB at a young age. Maine has always been really a C+ prospect based on scouting reports. By moving through A-AA so quickly he was just doing what ypu'd expect a college player to do.

As far as Heilman, let's say he wasn't being "shopped". But I think it says a lot in how Mets fans regard him that they think other teams might give up a Manny or Zito for a package that includes him. Thye'd have to give up some more talent in addition to Heilman to make it enticing to other teams. The last time Heilman was a hot commodity was in 2003 when his age/level was still good and he showed the high promise of his draft pick.

[Scott Clinco]

I can only hope! With Zito our pitching rotation would be:

1)Pedro
2)Zito
3)Glavine
4)Trax
5)Zambo/Solyer/Bannister/