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« 2007 MLB Free Agents: Luis Gonzalez | Main | 2007 Chicago Cubs »
I already took my best shot at a 2007 plan for the Cardinals back in August. But, let's do our usual Team Outlook analysis for the club. The Viva El Birdos article was more my recommendations, so here we'll discuss more of what I think Walt Jocketty will do.
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C - Yadier Molina - $0.4MM
C -
1B - Albert Pujols - $15MM
2B - Aaron Miles - $0.35MM
SS - David Eckstein - $4.5MM
3B - Scott Rolen - $12MM
IF -
LF - Chris Duncan - $0.33MM
CF -
RF - Juan Encarnacion - $5MM
OF - Larry Bigbie - $0.9MM
OF - So Taguchi - $0.825MM
OF - John Rodriguez - $0.332MM
SP - Chris Carpenter - $7MM
SP - Anthony Reyes - $0.33MM
SP - Adam Wainwright - $0.327MM
SP -
SP -
RP - Jason Isringhausen - $8.75MM
RP - Braden Looper - $4.5MM
RP - Jorge Sosa - $2.2MM
RP - Ricardo Rincon - $1.45MM
RP - Josh Hancock - $0.355MM
RP - Randy Flores - $0.35MM
RP - Brad Thompson - $0.334MM
RP - Josh Kinney - $0.33MM
RP - Chris Narveson - $0.33MM
The Cards have roughly $70MM tied up after entering 2006 with an $89MM payroll. Should ownership be willing to go into the mid-90s in '07, there will be some serious cash spent in St. Louis. You'll notice I don't list Jim Edmonds as the center fielder. It seems pretty obvious that the Cards won't be picking up his $10MM option given La Russa's comments. More on that later.
Catching: can Molina's defense compensate for a .600 OPS? I'm not sure anyone's defense has ever compensated for that kind of offensive futility. Nonetheless, the Cards don't appear to be looking for a change. They'll just bring in a backup.
Miles definitely won't hit enough to play 2B every day; that's why they brought Belliard in. I think the Cards will either re-up Belliard or snag a scrappy Mark Loretta/Adam Kennedy type. Said scrappy player will then be foolishly called team's MVP by John Kruk despite presence of the best hitter of my generation at first base.
The $4MM or so that I can see going towards 2B would be better allocated to a backup plan in left. At what point is Chris Duncan no longer a fluke? On one hand, 20 HR in 291 plate appearances is nothing to sneeze at. In fact, Duncan's home run every 14.55 PAs is tenth best in the game among those with 250 PAs. The Cards will likely bank on Duncan being league averge in 2007 - .279/.361/.481. His minor league record doesn't support that, but you never know.
As I've said before, the Jocketty can help right the wrong that was the Encarnacion signing by moving him to center. He's below average out there, but it'd be easier to stomach his bat. He's also not terribly expensive. But if you move Encarnacion to center, you really need some defense in right. That means Jose Guillen or Trot Nixon. The more conventional approach would be to sign one of these guys - probably Gary Matthews Jr. or Dave Roberts - to replace Edmonds in center.
The pitching staff has problems as well. Where does La Russa want to put Wainwright? He's mentioned using him in the rotation, and that seems most likely. It'll be similar to the Papelbon situation - do you want a proven very good reliever or a guy who might hold up and be decent for 180 innings? I'd install Wainwright at closer.
Either way, the club needs to come up with at least two starters. I'm not really seeing the pieces for a good trade. The free agent market bears all sorts of projects and mid-level guys. Wade Miller may have something left as a finesse pitcher. Kip Wells still has potential. Mark Redman would probably love to return to the NL. The Ramon Ortizes, Miguel Batistas, and Tony Armas Jrs need homes.
The fan base will probably revolt if Jocketty doesn't acquire someone a little better than that, though. Someone like Gil Meche, Vicente Padilla, Mark Buehrle, or Ted Lilly. In my crystal ball I see a lowball offer for Jason Schmidt and a Plan B three-year deal for one of the above as the "#2 starter."
The 'pen looks like a wreck, but I would hope Jocketty learned from the Looper signing. Find your relievers somewhere else. You'd hate to see another three-year deal for the likes of Jamie Walker, Danys Baez, Darren Oliver, or Russ Springer. Such a move would not surprise me, however.
By and large, Walt Jocketty has made many brilliant decisions as GM. He's leaned toward affordable finesse pitchers and it's mostly worked. He likes to trade young talent for proven vets. He practices "buy low" strategies to much success. (All of that came courtesy of Brian Gunn's fine article in the Hardball Times 2006 Annual.) Jocketty's decision-making has slipped of late, and he'll have to be at the top of his game to keep the Cards atop the division in 2007.
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Wait a second, has it been established that Buehrle's option won't be picked up? That seems like a huge mistake by the White Sox, despite his bad season.
Posted by: MetFanBen | September 25, 2006 at 10:40 PM
I'm pretty sure the Pale Hose will exercise both Dye and Buerhle's option, unless they share drinking water with Ozzie Guillen..
The Cards are a tough group to figure out right now, they have 1 god like player and 1 god like pitcher, a couple of good players, and tons and tons of mediocrity. it's going to be hard to sort out, and I for one think they'll probably lose the division next year if SOMEONE in that division actually builds a real team. or the Brewer's manage to play to their potentials.
The catching market out there is depressingly thin, though I suppose they could try to bring in Yadier's brother .. who might be able to agree to a low balled contract.
With the rest of the infield all pretty good defenders the Cards might one of the few teams that could risk Alfonso Soriano the 2B .... though i'd think they want a lefty power bat if thats what they can go for...
Gary Mathews is probably the biggest potential bust this off season , I doubt the Cards will sign him. Dave Roberts is a ok choice but again , he'd be just so agonizingly above average.
I think they REALLY should try to see if they can flip Juan Encarnacion for prospects or even money. and get a Frank Catallato or Dave Dellucci type and then go get a Dave Roberts type . that would probably work out better. and then grab another journeyman 2B and pick up Bengie if possible. and then add in more mediocarity to fill out their rotaiton... and again hope that Sir Albert + Sir Chris will lead the rest of the oh so slightly above average group to another playoff series loss.
Posted by: Yu Hsing Chen | September 25, 2006 at 10:58 PM
Um, roto, you mean "best presumably steroid-free hitter of your generation." Right?
Posted by: bobo | September 25, 2006 at 11:13 PM
"Said scrappy player will then be foolishly called team's MVP by John Kruk despite presence of the best hitter of my generation at first base."
I just love these snarky comments.
Remember what happened to Ryan Madson? I'd make Wainwright the closer as well. Keep Blooper as a setup man... I guess. UGH.
Posted by: TheRealErik | September 25, 2006 at 11:13 PM
Here's a crazy thought...there's a lot of teams that need a 3B...trade Rolen to the Angels for Figgins and E. Santana. Go after Soriano
Posted by: Cyprus125 | September 26, 2006 at 09:09 AM
Your mention of the "proven vets" for youngsters line got me thinking that STL could be a target for the Nats to trade Vidro to. Thoughts?
Posted by: JammingEcono | September 26, 2006 at 11:06 AM
Makes plenty of sense, assuming Bowden eats most of the $16MM due to him for 2007-08.
Posted by: RotoAuthority | September 26, 2006 at 11:12 AM
*sigh* Why must you always crash my flights of fancy?
Worst. Contract. Ever.
Posted by: JammingEcono | September 26, 2006 at 11:33 AM
they should trade isringhauen, hes going to have the same year next year
Posted by: NYCBOY21 | September 26, 2006 at 11:56 AM
"Worst. Contract. Ever."
Close but I'd still go with an 8 year, $121 million contract for Mike Hampton. He made $14,475,185 in 2006.....my brain hurts.
Posted by: ArodSucksAtLife | September 26, 2006 at 01:54 PM
my plan for the cardinals:
move encarcion to center and sign jose guillen to play right. Then sign Durham to play second. I hate to think of the defense with juan in center and ray at second, but it's worth it for the offense at that price. Sign lefty killer center-corner tweener to platoon with Duncan and spelll in center. Wilson at about a mill would be ideal.
Then keep wainwright in the pen. He can be a top set-up
man or a bad starter. Also sign a good lefty specilast
but don't spend any more money on the bullpen.
For the rotation to best to sign Suppan to hometown discount. Sign weaver for 4-5 million (he's poised for bounceback). Spend whatever it takes to get schmidt.
This team should be significant improvement over 2006 version.
Posted by: elhombre | October 02, 2006 at 07:54 PM
I hear rincons carrear is probally over.
Posted by: elhombre | October 02, 2006 at 07:55 PM
My thoughts on the 2007 roster...
I think that siging Dave Roberts would be a decent addition. I think the only way Edmonds is a Cardinal next year is if he goes off in the postseason, and it definitely could happen.
Assuming they don't keep him, I say we sign Roberts, move Encarnacion to CF, Duncan to RF, and put Roberts in LF. I would also stick Roberts at the top of the lineup, with Eckstein batting 2nd. That would set up situations of Roberts getting on base, stealing 2nd, and Eck bunting him over to 3rd for Pujols to drive in.
I would also sign Adam Kennedy to play 2nd. We don't need massive power from the position, just somebody that will hit .300, and he can do that. Heck, he even stole 16 bases this year, which would rank him 2nd on the Cards.
Lastly, the rotation. I think you move Wainwright into the rotation, sign Suppan for cheap, and sign one of the #2's that you listed above. Remember this when talking about keeping Wainwright in the pen: it's cheaper to find relief pitching than it is to find starting pitching.
Of course in a perfect world I would love to see us sign Soriano and Schmidt, but I think my suggestion makes much more sense.
Posted by: cardinalred24 | October 03, 2006 at 11:54 PM
That seems to take a lot of power away from the team cr24. It also doesn't seem to be a very good defensive plan.
This might be the year that walt revamps the out field. If the redbirds want to let Jimmy go than replacing him with a second tier outfielder like roberts doesn't make much sense. I see a serious move to try and aquire C. crawford in a Reyes deal, and playing center field is definately an option for him. if a deal can be made for juan, which is probably unlikely, he'll be gone, hopefully he could be replaced with trot nixon.
Add tony's beloved fourth outfieldier with some insurance for duncan and you have a productive, and hopefully very good defensive outield.
Posted by: Hammondsbird | October 25, 2006 at 01:50 PM