2007 Atlanta Braves

Next up in the 2007 Team Outlooks we have the Atlanta Braves.

John Schuerholz's contract obligations:

C - Brian McCann - $0.3335MM
C - Brayan Pena - $0.33MM
1B - Adam LaRoche - $0.42MM
2B - Marcus Giles - $3.85MM
SS - Edgar Renteria - $6.333MM
3B - Chipper Jones - $11MM
IF - Pete Orr - $0.34MM
IF - Willy Aybar - $0.33MM
IF - Martin Prado - $0.33MM
LF - Matt Diaz - $0.33MM, Ryan Langerhans - $0.345MM
CF - Andruw Jones - $13.5MM
RF - Jeff Francoeur - $0.3845MM
1B/OF - Scott Thorman - $0.33MM

SP - John Smoltz - $8MM
SP - Chuck James - $0.327MM
SP - Mike Hampton - $14.5MM
SP - Tim Hudson - $6MM
SP - Horacio Ramirez - $2.2MM
SP - Kyle Davies - $0.3335MM
SP - Anthony Lerew - $0.33MM

RP - Bob Wickman - $6.5MM
RP - Chris Reitsma - $2.75MM
RP - Oscar Villarreal - $0.4625MM
RP - Lance Cormier - $0.345MM
RP - Macay McBride - $0.332MM
RP - Kevin Barry - $0.33MM
RP - Blaine Boyer - $0.336MM
RP - Joey Devine - $0.33MM
RP - Wayne Franklin - $0.33MM
RP - Chad Paronto - $0.33MM
RP - Ken Ray - $0.33MM
RP - Tyler Yates - $0.33MM

Injured:
RP - John Foster - $0.35MM (TJ June '06)
RP - Kelly Johnson - $0.336MM (TJ June '06)

With some raises, my ballpark estimate for the payroll is $85MM.  The Braves were at $90MM on Opening Day 2006.

The Braves intend to trim $4MM by trading Giles this winter.  They'll go with Prado and Aybar at second base.  A more sensible plan would've been to keep Wilson Betemit instead of trading him for Danys Baez, but what's done is done.  By the way, an analysis of Giles led to this conclusion by Marc Normandin of Baseball Prospectus:

"If the Braves do indeed move Giles this winter, as has been whispered, then some new team might have themselves a second baseman who is still within his peak productivity, and may even get him at bargain-basement pricing, considering his "off" year. Considering this winter's weak free agent class, adding a player of Giles' caliber would be a serious upgrade in a market that doesn't offer very many of those."

Moving along - the idea of trading Chipper has come up, but the Braves probably can't find anything that makes sense.  Jones is shooting for 150 games in 2007 after playing only 110 in 2005 and again this year.  Most likely, Braves fans will be seeing plenty of Aybar at third and the team won't have an alternative to Prado at second while Jones is out. 

At .282/.352/.433 this year, the Braves' left field platoon has been affordable but below average in slugging for the position.  Schuerholz needs to bring someone in.  The team hasn't had a power hitter in left since Chipper played there in '03.  The norm has been names like Diaz, Langerhans, B.J. Surhoff, Bobby Bonilla, Reggie Sanders - veteran retreads or overexposed fourth outfielders.  Manny Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Carl Crawford, and Carlos Lee are the difference makers available.  The Braves aren't going to make a huge free agent signing, but a trade for Crawford is possible.  Chuck James would enjoy that outfield defense.

Smoltz and James are locked into the first two slots in the '07 rotation.  Smoltz will be 40 and James is due for a regression, but it's a good start.  Hampton recently threw batting practice after returning from Tommy John surgery.  Yes, the Braves are paying the full $14.5MM for him in '07.  The thought that Tim Hudson will bounce back is probably wishful thinking.  His peripherals have been steadily unimpressive for two seasons now, and that spells an ERA at 4.50 or worse. 

The fifth starter will probably be Davies or Ramirez.  Davies, at least, has the potential to pitch better than a fifth starter.  He'll be 23 and healthy, and I think he'll rightfully be the favorite. 

The rotation has a chance to be solid if not spectacular.  The Braves will be fortunate to get league average work from Hampton, Hudson, and Davies, but there are no huge holes.

Schuerholz gave Wickman the big bucks to finally end the team's closer problems.  It seemed like a necessary evil.  One would expect the usual cast of no-names, kids, and retreads rounding out the pen behind Wickman and Villarreal.  I can't say I disagree.

The Braves are saddled by some large salaries on guys who won't earn them - Chipper, Hampton, Hudson.  Chipper has already restructured his contract to free some dollars for the club.  If the Braves only have $5-10MM to spend this winter, they should use it on a power-hitting left fielder.  The time is now for the Braves, who may be without Smoltz and Andruw Jones in 2008.

Comments

[was385]

Tim Hudson will be the number two starter next year. As for Hampton, do you see any possibility of him being traded to a big payroll team like the Yankees or Red Sox who are in need of starters just to dump his salary? Maybe get a low level prospect because I don't see Hampton out performing HoRam this year

[gatling]

Hey Roto, what about Giles to Toronto for Dustin McGowan? He has to be on the big league roster next year, and I just don't see him staying in Toronto. Giles and Hill would be an acceptable middle infield combo for the Blue Jays.

McGowan would be an upgrade over Ramirez or possibly Hampton and much less money.

[RotoAuthority]

Makes sense to me Gatling, for both sides.

Was, maybe if the Braves pay $8MM or something...

[Dev0]

As much as I'm hoping for McGowan to succeed I think it will take more then him for Giles. McGowans Trade Value can't be very high right now since he's done basicly nothing good this season.

I'd like to see Toronto and Atlanta make a larger trade as I think they have peices each team could use.

[buehrlebro]

Roto, do you think that the Braves could put Davies in AAA and trade or sign for a "win now" or stop-gap type starting pitcher this offseason, like Livan Hernandez or Jeff Weaver?

[desturbd1]

My roommate's friend sat next to the Braves' Jim Fregosi at a Red Sox game recently. Among other things, the apparently amiable scout said:

-Dustin Pedroia sucks.

-Hansen will come around, Lester will be great if he gets healthy, Delcarmen should be solid.

-Braves offered A. Jones earlier for Hansen, Lester, and Crisp...Boston rejected.

-Varitek's done; he thinks Nixon used roids, and WMP has an attitude problem. (Interesting because I've only heard good things since he came to Boston)

-Beckett would be the best pitcher in baseball if he wasn't so undisciplined; he has 3 of the best pitches in the league.

-Smoltz definitely isn't going anywhere.

-The Fish have the best rotation in baseball.

-Boston's in some trouble, but their $$$ could bail them out.

-Andy Marte is solid, but very overrated.

I know this has more to do with Boston then Atlanta, but it's interesting all the same.

[buehrlebro]

Also, what are the odds of the Braves going after a pitcher looking to be dumped, like Javier Vasquez, Jeremy Bonderman, Carlos Silva, Matt Clement, Jon Lieber, the list goes on.

[gatling]

Couple of quick things:

1. Bonderman is not going to be "dumped" by the Tigers, it will take a big offer for them to move him.

2. Dev0, I'd be interested to hear what kind of a larger deal you think the Braves and Jays could pull off. Care to elaborate?

[buehrlebro]

Dumped, traded, same point. And yes, I don't really see how the Braves and Jays can pull off a big deal. Giles for Reed Johnson? Nah.

[was385]

one of the main writers over at scout.com has said many times that this offseason the Braves are going to make a deal where the centerpieces are Giles and an All-Star west coast pitcher. He will not name names, but the main speculation on the site has been Jake Peavy since the Padres wilth Brian have shown interest in Marcus.

[buehrlebro]

Peavy isn't going anywhere. Maybe Hensley or Young, possibly Morris if the Giants don't retain Durham. The Padres would have to play Giles at 3B. If they want to make him adjust to 3B, fine, but I find it unlikely.

[cajunrevenge]

I think it should be noted that the braves averaged out Hampton's salary over the 6 years so that their budget paid 8 mill per year. What they did was put money into an account to where they would put enough in to equal 8 mill based on what they paid that year. For example, one year they were due to pay 2 mill of his overall salary so they paid that 2 mill and then put 6 mill into that account. So on their budget for that year it said Hampton 8 mill. That money is then used now when they are due to pay the full amount. Yes they are paying the full amount this next year, but only about 8.1 mill of it is coming out of the 07 budget. The overall budget was 80 mill in 06 although they went into the season at 74 and there is no reason to expect the budget to go up or down despite tickets rising by 7% for the second consecutive year.

Hudson recently said in an interview following his last start that he changed his offseason workout to be less weight training to try and avoid the oblique injuries and that it caused him to top out at 91 rather than 93. He said he will go back to his old routine and work hard in the offseason, who knows if it will get him back to 05 form.

Chipper also said he will be following a diffrent workout this offseason. He hired a nurisionist last year and worked on his lower body, this year he plans on doing his own workouts and focusing on upper body workouts instead to try and add more muscle.

I think Hampton will come back stronger than most think. Tommy John surgery is routine these days and there is no reason to think he wont come back throwing the same or even add a few mph as many do. He looked to have turned the corner before the injury as he posted a low 3 era in the second half of 04 and had an era under 2 before his injuries in 05. He is also said to be the best athlete on the team, maybe not that Francoeur is there, but he should be able to regain his mechanics pretty easy given his atletic ability.

There is also good reason to believe Glavine will be back, just about everything points to it, Pedro's injury might make the mets grossly overpay to convince him to stay though.

[cajunrevenge]

Also, Kelly Johnson is a position player. Played outfield last year but was a infielder in the minors, there is some speculation that he could get a shot at second next year.

He had TJ surgery shortly after the season began and it was said he would be out 7 months, apparently the time frame is diffrent than pitchers. He should be good to go for spring training.

[Yu Hsing Chen]

I think the Braves should essentially stand pat (maybe sign a reliver or two) and then see if things work out, it might if guys stay healthy enough. (Hampton and Hudson giving them good season and Wickman giving them a passable closer will be enough to contend for the wild card at least.)

If things don't work out by the ASG next year, start blowing things up, trade away Smoltz , Wicky, Chipper , Hampton, Hudson and rebuild around Andruw / Mccane / Laroche ... also, buy a glasses for Jeff Francouer, maybe it'll help him actually seeing the ball...

[vt_Brady2705]

First off, the Braves didn't trade Betemit for Baez. The meat of the trade was for Aybar. Aybar is about 3 years younger than Betemit, and performing at a comporable level. Look at their stats over the last 2 years, albeit Betemit has more power, but Aybar is very close otherwise when matched up to Betemit. The Braves need a backup for Chipper, and Betemit was proving to deserve a starting job, and would have become disgruntled if he were left to play backup for 2+ more seasons. So picking up essentially a younger, possibly better, version of Betemit in Aybar, along with a reliever who at the time we thought would help us in the wild card hunt, made a lot of sense.

As for leadoff hitters, a trade for someone like Carl Crawford would be amazing ... however it's not going to happen. The Braves are not about to part with the young pitching it would require to obtain Crawford, and so they should look for other options. Juan Pierre I think would be a perfect hit. Topping 200 hits again, the man was a wrecking machine the second half this year. He may have slumped the first half, and had somewhat of an offyear in 2005, but we're talking about a young player who was the best leadoff man in baseball in 2003 and 2004. He would probably come relatively cheap when compared to what it would cost to trade for the likes of a Crawford (I could see J.Pierre at about $6mill).

Expect Horacio Ramirez to be traded as well. There's no room for him now with Hampton coming back, his salary is too high, and Davies seems to have the much bigger upside.

Chris Reitsma and his huge salary will NOT be on the Braves payroll this year, he will be gone guaranteed, by any means necessary.

Andruw isn't going anywhere. He has stated many times that he wants to be a Brave for life. He has indicated that if the Braves make him even a competitive offer, he will take it hands down no matter what else is on the table. Chipper has said Andruw is invaluable to the team, and he would renegotiate his contract even further if it would mean resigning Andruw Jones. People are also quick to forget that Andruw fired Scott Boras previously and negotiated an extension with the Braves just by himself and with his father. He loves the Braves, and the Braves love Andruw, he's not going anywhere, so keep dreaming Boston.

Wickman is far better than a "passable" closer. Have you seen his numbers with the Braves? He's arguably been the best closer in the national league, if not in all of baseball, since coming over to Atlanta. It was only 2005 when he saved 40+ in Cleveland, it's not like this man doesn't have a pedigree of success at his job ...

And the LAST thing the Braves need is a power-hitter in left field. They're already loaded with power as is. If there is anyone brought in to play left field, it needs to be a true leadoff hitter, not another slugger. Chipper Jones would have easily surpassed 30 HR's if he had even played 140 games this year, and as was he already hit what, 24 or 25? Andruw hit 40+, Francoeur hit 29 and will be around 30 if not well past it next year (he only gets better and better as he gains experience and patience at the plate). Brian McCann had something around 24 HR and he didn't even get enough AB to qualify for the batting title. That's because he wasn't playing regularly early in the season, Todd Pratt was getting far more starts than he should have, probably because the Braves wanted to ease McCann into the wear-and-tear that comes in catching a full MLB season. Expect him to get a Mauer-like number of at bats next year, and those 24 HRs should be 35 or so, coupled with his .320+ BA and about 100 RBI. Adam LaRoche hit over 30 HR for the Braves this year, and he too has only gotten better this year as he finally got to be an everyday player and not just part of a platoon.

So if you think the Braves need any more power ... I think they've got plenty enough. They've got the best lineup in the NL, especially if they can pick up a Juan Pierre to leadoff and play LF for 2007

1. LF J. Pierre .285 Avg, 40+ SB
2. SS E. Renteria .285 Avg
3. 3B C. Jones 30+ HR
4. CF A. Jones 35-40 HR
5. C B. McCann 30+ HR
6. RF J. Francoeur 30+ HR
7. 1B A. LaRoche 30+HR
8. 2B W. Aybar .270+ Avg

That right there is by far the best lineup in the NL, not to mention it's perfectly semetrical in terms of righties and lefties (Chipper and Aybar being switch hitters, but you won't find 2 lefties or 2 righties hitting back to back in that lineup)

2007 Braves = NL Champs, possible WS Champs

[Yu Hsing Chen]

Dude, first of all, anyone signiing Juan Pierre to leadoff should join Dusty Baker and/or the guys on BBTN. Pierre is the crappiest hitter possible.

As for Wicky, you might wanna check out his number over a course of a longer timeline? Kyle Farnsworth was awsome for the second half last year too, you might wanna check out what he's done this year.

lead off hitters who can steal are way too overrated. Boston offense did just fine for most of the year with Kevin Youkliss leading off. and you might want to realize that Juan Pierre's Cubs this year is last in just about every offesnive catagory. (As is the D-rays.)

[RotoAuthority]

You have some good points, but I have to argue some.

I dunno about the Aybar stuff. Baseball America calls him a tweener, not quite good enough to start. I don't see anything in the numbers to prove that wrong. You don't trade a superior player because he might be disgruntled for half a season longer. Ryan Howard was disgruntled for a long time. Acquiring Baez was never going to substantially help the Braves. He hasn't been that good for a while now.

Pierre, well, we will have to agree to disagree. His offense in left field...yikes.

Sure, you can trade Horacio...but who would want him?

I don't think Andruw wanting to stay would stop Schuerholz from trading him if the right deal came along. The Braves offered him to Boston and were turned down.

Wickman was great...for 26 innings. Cubs made the same mistake of judgment with Ryan Dempster, only threefold. Not saying Wick will be bad, but still. Small sample.

You make a good point, the Braves are already a powerful team. I can't argue that one. I would still acquire a LF if I was GM, but it's defensible not to.

Looks like a decent lineup...by far the best in the NL is definitely a stretch. Good power, middle of the pack OBP. By far is a dangerous qualifier though.

[was385]

Roto, as for Horacio. There are plenty of teams that will take a chance on a horribly performing starter, so one that did pretty well before being injured this past season should get some interest. Look at the Mets aquiring Dave Williams and Oliver Perez.

As for Andruw, you have to realize that he said if JS came to him with a trade, he would say no. He became a 10/5 player in August so he has that ability.

I also don't see your argument with Pierre. Leadoff men are paid to get on base. He is hitting .290 and a .330 OBP which is decent, plus he has 58 SBs, which I think is more than the whole braves team. He can get on and get over and would fit in the budget. I would certainly love to have Crawford, but what do you trade? Lerew, Startup, and Langerhans.

[cajunrevenge]

The braves apparently did not think Betemit could play good enough defense to be a full time 2B which is why they traded him and got Aybar who they think can. So its like getting a starting 2B for 07 for a player that would basically fill in for Chipper.

Aybar has hit .313/.373 since joining the braves. His power isnt there but the braves dont really need power. The braves have some hackers who arent exactly know for working the count. Betemit was one of them, Aybar really works pitchers and has productive at bats even if he gets out. The braves too often let a pitcher have a 5-7 pitch inning. The braves also already have 3 players who are goingto K 120+ times this year. Betemit was/is on pace to K about 140 times in a full season. It just begins to be a problem when you have 4 players with 120+ k's.

Wickman might not be a dominant closer but he gets the job done. The braves closers prior to Wickman converted at 40%, Wickman has converted the last few years at about 89%. Its safe to expect 40 saves 5 blown saves, thats what his history suggests, although that was in the AL so you could make a case for a slightly better ratio.

As for the offense, the braves OPS was second in the NL.

Phillies .794 OPS
Braves .791 OPS
Mets .780 OPS

It is actually pretty amazing considering they have Mr. anti-OPS Franceour.

The braves offense has a good upside going into next year as well. I would expect a better leadoff hitter this year, the leadoff hitter had a .336 OBP which is likely to improve. There are several hitters with reasonable expectations for a better year next year. Many of their young players kept improving thru the second half and Adam LaRoche finally busted out once he was given the full time job and even showed he could hit lefties.

pre all star break
McCann .911 OPS
Francoeur .728 OPS
LaRoche .805 OPS

post all star break
McCann 1.002 OPS
Francoeur .758 OPS
LaRoche 1.048 OPS

Who knows wether that was a sign of things to come or just a hot streak. Given their ages I think you have to be optimistic.

Andruw is a safe bet to hit 30+ homers and drive in 100+ runs. Chipper is a big wild card, we all know he can and will hit but we dont know howm any games he will play in. He is changing his workout routine again but its probably best to assume 100 games and hope for 140+.

I think with a little luck the offense could posta .800+ OPS next year. McCann and LaRoche playing more should deffinatly help raise the OPS even if they dont improve. They both started the year in a platoon and McCann missed 2 weeks with a high ankle sprain from a home plate collision. In the second half of this year they posted a .820 team OPS despite Chipper playing less than a month in the second half.

They key to 07 will be the pen. Since Wickman came to the braves their bullpen era is 3.70 so it already is much improved thanks to a stabalizing force at the end of the game. The offense is good enough to carry the starters if their just close to average, they just need a pen that wont blow saves. This year they had 29 blown saves to 38 saves. No team is going to win anything with a pen like that.

[cajunrevenge]

Also about Ramirez, he was as Jekyl and Hyde as it gets this year. He would go 2 starts going 14 innings 1 run allowed then the next start go 1 inning 6 runs allowed. He had 8 quality starts in 14 starts leaving 3 from injury, one was a line drive taken off his head against the astros.

If we had room for him I would love to give him another shot, I think other teams with a spot to fill should really look to get him for the 4th spot. I also think teams should look at Cormier to possibly fill a 5th spot.

Ramirez's key has always been his home run rate. He stopped using his cutter which gave up the majority of homers in 05 and it made a huge diffrence. I think a team like the padres with a pitchers park should give him a shot. He is only 26 and has a career record of 30-22 with a 4.13 era, I think that makes him a good risk to take.

I think a team like the reds should be asking for Ramirez/Cormier, they cant help but be better than anyone outside of Arroyo/Harang in their rotation.

I dont expect the braves to get much in return, but I think they would be a good risk for another team to take. They dont cost very much money and wont take nearly anything in talent to get.

[was385]

Betemit is not that much of an athlete with very little range, which is why they moved him from short to third. They got aybar who is much faster, has better range, is better defensively, and is a better pure hitter who just has less power. He has a better upside I believe than Betemit who will hit 30 HRs but only .260 or .270

[BravesFan002]

"Dude, first of all, anyone signiing Juan Pierre to leadoff should join Dusty Baker and/or the guys on BBTN. Pierre is the crappiest hitter possible."

I'm a Braves' fan. And I don't like nor want Juan Pierre with the Braves next season, but he is lead the NL in hits in 2006. How is that crappy?

Schuerholz has done some dumb things, and yes, so have Cox. But they haven't done anything as dumb as acting like Lance Cormier is a viable option for fifth starter in 2007. That's not going to happen. He may be a spot starter in case of injury or whatever, but he won't be in the starting rotation on April 2, 2007.

[RotoAuthority]

Good point about Andruw's NTC.

But with Pierre - if his entire job is to get on base, and he's league average at it when he's going right, how is that worth the money?

[was385]

He is worth the money becaue he gets on, can move himself over and scores runs. Another thing that stats don't show is the pressure it puts on a pitcher. If you have a base running threat on, then Renteria, Chipper, and Andruw are going to see a lot more mistake pitches, which they can hit a long way

[Kyle]

I think what you guys who like Pierre are not realizing is the only reason he has 200 hits is that he had almost 700 at bats. He was on base this year 262 times out of 699 at bats. Yes he stole 58 bases but he was caught 20 times. That stolen base percentage probably hurt the team more than helped it. They would be much better off with a guy who could post a .370 on base and have just average speed and some power.

Saying all this the Braves could be good next year if they make a couple moves. They need some decent relievers. Like a Ron Villone type or Alan Embree or Chad Bradford. Then they have to figure out there starting pitching. I wouldnt be suprised if they ended up with Glavine. Starting your rotation Smoltz, Glavine, James is a good start and I think they could be ok without going after a top flight free agent. A middle of the road risk guy may work.

In the outfield I would go with someone like Delucci or Catalanatto. In a full season Dellucci would be good for a .360-.370 on base and around 20 homers. Catalanatto would give you a better on base and defense with less power.

I would also look into the trade market for Francoeur. Someone may be fooled by his HR and RBI totals into thinking he is a great player when he is league average at best. Getting someone who can actually get on base and a young pitcher for him would be a coup

[vt_Brady2705]

You're being awful quick to say Pierre is just "league average" as far as getting on base is concerned. In 2005, sure, he posted his career worst OBP of .326. This year, it was only .330. But look at his career:

In 2001 he hit .327 with an OBP of .378 over a full year.

In 2002 he hit .287 with a .332 OBP.

In 2003 he hit .305 with a .361 OBP.

In 2004 he hit .326 with a .374 OBP.

In 2005 he hit .276 with a .326 OBP.

In 2006 he hit .290 with a .330 OBP.

If Pierre plays at his career worst levels of performance, he will still be more valuable out of the leadoff spot than Marcus Giles was for the Braves this year, with comparable OBP, but Pierre would have an edge in SB and in BA.

If Pierre plays at his career best levels of performance ... he could be the best leadoff man in baseball. We're talking about a 29 year old man here, a player in the midst of his prime years. If the Braves locked up Pierre for 3 years, it would be a pretty smart gamble I think, giving them a leadoff hitter just about until Elvis Andrus and Eric Campbell are ready for the big leagues, at which case the core of the Braves will be LaRoche, McCann, and Francoeur, and Chipper will likely be gone.

Pierre has also shown signs of reverting back to form this season. His second half numbers were a promising sign:

.311 BA with a .340 OBP.

With that kind of production, coupled with his great speed at the top of the order, I just can't see how the Braves wouldn't be the best lineup in the NL. Don't forget they finished in the top 2 to 3 in just about every NL offensive category, and that includes a time when Brian Jordan and Todd Pratt were seeing significant playing time at catcher and first base, a position now fully occupied by 2 of the Braves best hitters.

Maybe Pierre struggled in Chicago because of the small park? He's not a homerun hitter, and in Florida and Colorado he had much more room in the outfield to drop in hits. With Wrigley, if you're not hitting it over the fence, there's really not much room in the outfield for hits to fall in, and that's what Pierre does so well: slap the ball around and drop in line drives and bloopers for hits or extra-base hits. Turner Field isn't as big as Colorado, and nobody's centerfield is as big as Florida's, but it is still much bigger than Wrigley, and perhaps this would help Pierre revert to his 2003, 2004 form.

Besides that, you're forgetting the most important thing. Pierre would be coming to play for Bobby Cox, and Pierre has a reputation for being one of the hardest workers in baseball, always at the field extra early to practice bunts, take extra BP, and practice having the balls take bounces off the walls. If you incorporate a player with that work ethic, in an atmosphere that is very relaxed and willing to let a player play without tons of media scrutiny surrounding their every move, and a manager who has consistently been able to get the best out of players, and turn what some considered to be "busts" into truly great players, then I think it's a recipe for success.

[vt_Brady2705]

As far as the bullpen:

It needs NO WORK. The bullpen now is a very solid one.

Wickman is a lock closing out games.

The Braves have two very solid set-up options in Tyler Yates and Joey Devine. Both have filthy strikeout stuff. Devine was drafted last year as our closer of the future, burned through the minor leagues in about a month, and then finally hit the big leagues but had a rough first date in Atlanta. He then suffered from burnout as he logged many more innings than he ever has before (couple a full college season on top of minor league and then major league pitching), and suffered from an injury. Spring of this year he got hurt again, and has only recently made his way back to the big leagues. What has he done since he got back? Pitch 5.1 innings, giving up only 3 hits, striking out 8, and having a nice ERA of 0.00 (however, he has 4 walks, which is a little worrisome). However, considering he was our first pick, and was specifically drafted to close, and has always struck people out at a tremendous rate, I like having him and Tyler Yates (who is really nasty and has been great for us since he got called up this year) work the 8th innings.

Who works in the 7th? Chad Paronto, who has a 3.18 ERA, a 91 mph nasty sinker, and has been one of our best and most consistent relievers ever since he got called up.

Couple him with lefty Macay McBride, who has been sensational over the second half of the season.

Oscar Villarreal should also see time in 7th inning situations, although he has also shown himself to be valuable as a long reliever.

Let Ken Ray and Lance Cormier handle long relief and mop-up duty. Or, if we don't end up trading one of our starters, let Horacio Ramirez work long relief roles, which would also give us another LHP in the bullpen.
---------------------------

I know many of you must pre-judge the Braves and say "well, it's the Braves, so their bullpen next year must really be awful." I say to you that is simply not true. Much of our bullpen troubles came from a time when Chris Reitsma and Jorge Sosa were closing games for us for over half a season. It came when we consistently had Mike Remlinger coming in to pitch in 7th and 8th inning situations when the game was on the line. Those players are all gone (except Reitsma, who happens to be injured I believe, but he will be gone before spring training rest assured). The Braves bullpen after acquiring Wickman and putting Yates into an 8th inning role and Paronto and McBride into 7th inning roles has been one of the best bullpens in the NL. It honestly has. So don't think the Braves need to go out and get relievers; they don't. They need to leave their bullpen alone, and see if they can acquire 1 leadoff hitter to play left field (I've also seen some Braves fans who want Ryan Freel from Cincinnati), and if possible, get 1 great starting pitcher (NOT TOM GLAVINE!) Glavine has been awful in the second half, and the Braves have no room for a 40+year old lefthander in their rotation. We already have too many lefties to choose from with Hampton, James, and Horacio all being very legitimate starting pitching options, we don't need another lefty who at best next year is going to barely keep his ERA below 4. Glavine may think he's going to be in Atlanta next year, but I am fairly sure the Braves won't be offering him a spot. It makes no sense from the Braves perspective, it's only going to keep their great young pitching prospects (James, Davies, and to a much lesser extent Lerew) on the sidelines, inhibiting their growth. The rotation should look like

1. Smoltz
2. Hudson
3. James
4. Hampton
5. Davies

with maybe Horacio possibly being traded to Cincinnati with Marcus Giles for Ryan Freel? It could be a good deal for both clubs in my opinion.

[RotoAuthority]

Pierre has been league average for two full seasons now in OBP. Players peak at 27; he's past his prime. There is no good statistical reason to expect anything more than .330. And probably good chance it's worse.

[buehrlebro]

I don't see why the Braves wouldn't pursue someone like Dave Roberts. That being said, Willy Aybar would probably make a passable leadoff hitter.

And whoever said trade Francoeur, GMs and scouts actually look at OBP and OPS now, a lot as a matter of fact. Trading Francoeur is out of the question for the Braves anyway, unless they are trying to get someone like Dontrelle Willis which isn't going to happen for them anyway.

[FT]

Listen to Kyle, folks. He's on the right track. Pierre, like Lugo, is going to be overpaid.
Wickman is a "crafty vet." His repertoire is pathetic, yet he gets the job done. If you're satisfied with that, more power to you.

Lets not drink the kool-aid here (delicious and sugary as it may be), be realistic about your expectations for Chipper's health and assuming maximum potential realization for all the young players.

Andruw may love the Braves, but that doesn't mean the Braves haven't tried to deal him, at the very least, for fiscal reasons. The Braves tried to trade him for Magglio when he was still in the White Sox organization.

It is of little consequence to my baseball allegiance, but it is obvious the Mets will still be better than the Braves next year, especially when they inevitably bolster their rotation.

[hirule7226]

I can't believe people can seriously argue that Wickman will be a top tier closer next year. Sure, the first time through was pretty good, but this is Wickman. Bob of the intentional balk then load the bases with another walk wickman.

[vt_Brady2705]

Players PEAK at age 27? You must be joking. Not everyone "peaks" at the exact same year in their careers, but I think it's pretty easy to say that players are generally "in their prime" years around their late 20s and early 30s. Besides that, as Marcus Giles proved, not everyone can leadoff. Marcus was an exceptional #2 hitter, essentially a lock to hit .300 with an OBP of .360 or better. But when he was moved to leadoff, all of a sudden his .OBP is much worse. Pierre will post an OBP comparable to what Giles had this year, but his ability to steal bases and put pressure not only on the pitcher and catcher, but also the rest of the infield, will add intangible benefits to the lineup that you just can't compute with "statistical evidence."

I wouldn't mind the Braves picking up Dave Roberts if it were only for 1, 2 years tops. The bottom line is I'd like to see the Braves acquire a LF who can leadoff and steal bases, and on the top of my list is Juan Pierre. Whether or not people agree with that is up to them. However, I don't see how people can look at a .290 avg, .330 OBP, and 58 stolen bases (at a 74% ratio) and talk about him as if he's "league average at best." Even in a statistically "down" year for him, he's still putting up great numbers. I'd love to have him.

[A2000]

If Carl Crawford comes to Atlanta he will make himself a household name and with the company he would be in his numbers would be better, compared to those in Tampa. If Tampa wants to throw in Scott Kazmir too I don't think anyone in Atlanta would mind.

[RotoAuthority]

It's a statistical, proven fact that on average a player peaks at age 27. I didn't make it up. Of course every player is different.

It's not like Pierre is some late bloomer and there's some good reason to expect a late peak for him.

Actually most of your intangibles have been measured statistically and have proven to have verrrrrry little effect. Rattling the pitcher, crap like that.

"I don't see how people can look at a .290 avg, .330 OBP, and 58 stolen bases (at a 74% ratio) and talk about him as if he's "league average at best.""

Avg is irrelevant. OBP encompasses it. Average OBP in the NL this year was .334. Pierre is worse than league average at getting on base. And 74% has been statistically proven as bad enough where he's probably better off never running at all. AND on top of that the value of basestealing is TINY even if you're GREAT at it.

[vt_Brady2705]

And I can't believe how people continually think Bob Wickman is a bad closer when he has been one of the best around for a long long time. Look at the stats he's put up when he's been the closer for a full reliever's season (I'm looking at about 60+ IP)

1998: 82.1 IP, 25 SV, 7 Blown Saves, 78% conversion rate, 3.72 ERA
1999: 74.1 IP, 37 SV, 8 Blown Saves, 82% conversion rate, 3.39 ERA
2000: 72.2 IP, 30 SV, 7 Blown Saves, 81% conversion rate, 3.10 ERA
2001: 67.2 IP, 32 SV, 3 Blown Saves, 91% conversion rate, 2.39 ERA
2005: 62.0 IP, 45 SV, 5 Blown Saves, 90% conversion rate 2.47 ERA
2006: 54.0 IP, 33 SV, 4 Blown Saves, 89% conversion rate 2.67 ERA

(Bob Pitched very little in 2002, not at all in 2003, and very little in 2004. I'm not too familiar with Wickman's history, but I'm going to assume he must have gone through a surjery requiring injury here to miss this much time).

For anyone to say Bob Wickman isn't a top tier closer, they are just showing their ignorance. You don't have a throw 97 mph to be a great closer. Whoever said Wickman has a terrible pitching repertoire is also an idiot. He's got a 4-seem and 2-seem fastball he generally throws anywhere from 89-91 (on the 2 seam) and 91-93 (on the 4 seam), a change he uses occasionally, and a great slider. His control on all of these pitches is exceptional. No, he may not throw 97+, but he throws hard enough to get it by people when they're trying to stay honest on his slider and changeup.

Besides that, it would take a true baseball moron to look at his stats as a closer (look above), and not realize that he really has been one of the top closers in the game for some time now. Anyone who consistently saves 30+ games and has an ERA of 3.50 or under is a pretty damn good closer in my book. Or maybe that's because I've spent the last 2 years watching Chris Reitsma close, so anyone who can lockdown 60% of his saves with an ERA under 9 would look good to me. And Wickman's been converting 90% of his saves for his last 3 seasons as a closer, so you doubters tell me if that's successful or not.

[vt_Brady2705]

There is no such thing as an all encompasing stat. You sabermetric fanatics can pretend there is, but there isn't. Just because OBP contains BA within it, doesn't mean BA is no longer important. There are times when teams need a hit, not a walk, to have a chance to win the game. A .290 average is very good. Just because he may not have walkd as often as others did in 2006 doesn't mean he's "league" average.

Also, you absolutely can not measure things like "ratteling" the pitcher. Intangibles like that simply can not be measured and defined by a statistic. It's why there's very few reliable statistics for defense, and why gold glove awards are often biased to the same players who consistenly get them. You can pretend you have stats that take such obscure and inmeasurable things as "pitchers nervousness" into account, but you very simply can not. It is not quantitative data, so don't tell me you have stats for it when there very clearly are not legitimate stats for it. The very notion of it is impossible.

And you ignore Pierre's past numbers. He is not 34. He is 29. He is quite capable of having several more great years. To say he must have already hit his peak, when he just turned 29 not more than 2 months ago, is absurd. Pierre is very capable of going out and hittin .315 with a .370 OBP. He's done it before several times, and to say he's past his peak (at 29 no less) so it's highly unlikely he will get better, is ridiculous. He has as good a chance as anyone to put up fantastic leadoff numbers next year. One could have argued there was "no statistical evidence to backup Jose Reyes making the kind of improvements he did over the last year," other than the fact that he's just now 23. Which also, those who think Francoeur can't improve his OBP, stop being fools. He's 22 years old, younger than Reyes, and is more than just likely to improve his patience at the plate as he becomes more experienced, just like Jose Reyes did this year. And when that happens ... wow. But now I'm getting off track.

You can't say these things won't happen. Andruw Jones went from an above average slugger to the best HR threat in baseball, and nearly an MVP, all in one season. And he was 28 years old when he did that. And Pierre who just turned 29, apparently it's just out of the cards for him?

Players can still improve in their late 20s. This isn't football, this is baseball. Some of the best years in many players careers come after the end-all number of 27. Pierre still has at least 3 or 4 more years before one has to wonder about his speed and ability to produce seriously declining. Even if Pierre hit .290 with a .330 OBP and 55 SB next year, I'd love to have him do it in a Braves uniform, because while you might think that's a poor season, I think it's a vast improvement over anything the Braves currently have to offer out of the leadoff spot.

[gatling]

Brady, first off you're right there is no all encompassing stat. However, Pierre's OBP is very dependent on his batting average, i.e. he doesn't walk much. If he has an off year with the bat, his OBP will suffer much more than a player like David Dellucci or Frank Catalanotto, both of whom I'd rather see in LF for the Braves. Cat's .300/.376/.439 line would be much better for this team than Pierre's .292/.330/.388 line would be. Plus, players moving from the AL to NL usually hit better, so Cat's numbers might look more like .320/.390/.440, which would be huge for this team.

Players usually have a 3 year "peak" window, either from 26-28 or 27-29. Yes, some players have a later peak, some an earlier one. It's entirely possible that Pierre's peak was from 2001-2004 and he's going to decline from there. He could also peak over the next three years. I'd rather not pay him the ridiculously high amount someone will pay for his services, just in hope his peak still lies ahead of him.

[FT]

I support Roto on this one. I was interested last year about what the effects of an elite stolen-base threat would be on all facets of the game. Fortunately, I located a well-researched article which provided statistical evidence (batting average, errors, vs a league average runner, etc) that basestealing is an overrated aspect of the game, provides little in terms of intangibles, and is actually detrimental to the team if the player is not stealing at at least a 75% rate. A good example of this statistical fact in motion is the rule that the A's employ. If you are a member of the A's and have a stolen base success rate of over 75%, you are allowed to run at your own discretion. However, if it is under 75%, you can only steal when given the green light by the manager. Believe me, I wanted the art of the stolen base to be this integral, mystic part of the game, but in reality it truly is a lesser aspect unless you can steal with the utmost certainty and consistency like Ichiro this year.

Hey, you know who else had a .330 OBP this year and will only be 31 next year? Scott Podsednik. He also has career averages of .275/.342 with a 76.5% career SB success rate. He's got the same wet noodle arm as Pierre but will probably be about $5 mil cheaper. Go for it!

Bob Wickman is the Mark Buerhle of closers. Sure he's been effective, and he's gotten the job done. Maybe he's even a little underrated. Hey, he's got tons of pitches too! Great. Hey, I'll even admit that he has pitched masterfully during his short time with the Braves, almost a K/inning, 12.5 K/BB ratio. These numbers are far superior to even his career averages let alone his most recent history. Actually, in his short time with the Braves, he is putting up career bests in OBP against, SLG against, and OPS against (duh) in addition to his K and BB ratios. Fact of the matter is that he has to rely on pinpoint control of his junk to be effective. He has to have a good defense behind him because of all the balls put into play. Sooner or later, it's not going to hold up. Considering he'll be 38 entering next season, I'd wonder how much longer he'll have it. In addition, this is his first go round with the NL in a while, so you might want to take that into consideration entering next season. You might be a little blinded by the lunacy that has occupied the Braves' closer role since Smoltz left it coupled with Wickman's immense success as a Brave, but I have had the displeasure of watching him in the AL central for quite some time. Like I said, if you believe that he'll be a rock for you, more power to you. I just wouldn't feel as comfortable.

[vt_Brady2705]

He has to have a good defense behind him because of all the balls put into play. Sooner or later, it's not going to hold up.

The Braves have a very good defense, one of the best in baseball. And I don't follow your logic about his stuff "eventually won't hold up." He's never had such great stuff that could allow him to not have to be very accurate before, but he always has been a great closer. In all his time as a closer, he's notched above the 80% conversion rate regularly, and in his last 3 campaigns has been at 90% and up. So I don't see how he must eventually fall apart, when time and time again he's simply been getting the job done with the same arsenal. Besides that, he understands that he's aging and that eventually he could lose his stuff on the mound. That's why he (and this is another reason I love Wickman) has elected to work exclusively 1-year deals with Scheurholz. There was a whole article about it on the Braves website where Wickman was quoted saying "well, I don't want the Braves to be paying me money for years, because if I get injured or something and then can't perform, then it would be unfair to the team. So we'll just take it one year at a time, and if I keep pitching successfully and still want to come back and pitch, then I'll just keep signing on one year at a time." Something to that effect, while not verbatum, that's the jist of it. Meanwhile, we have our future closer Joey Devine getting tutored by Wickman while Devine works in 7th and 8th inning roles underneath Wickman. When Wickman is ready to retire, we will have a quite capable future stud closer waiting in the wings, much like Houston had with Brad Lidge under Billy Wagner. You don't have to agree with me about Wickman being a great closer, but to me it seems pretty open and shut that he is a great closer, and is in the perfect situation with Atlanta.

[Dev0]

gatling

Well First off let me say I don't think Andrew Jones is a CFer anymore. The Jays starting OF is 3 CF's Wells, Rios and Johnson, and now they have Adam Lind, who I highly doubt they will make DH thats just not good for a young player I'd assume.

I'm thinking something like Rios would be involved leaving toronto not exactly sure what other parts but likely some sort of McGowan maybe Janssen.

While the Jays would have interest in Giles, Salty and one of those cheaper starters the Braves have maybe Ramirez, But the Jays would also have enough available cash for Hudson that would be an interesting fit.

[Leeman]

The Braves WILL NOT trade Jeff Francoeur. He is better than average. Aside from his power hittijng, how about his defense. That was totally overlooked by all Francoeur-haters. He aint goin nowhere nor should he

[Leeman]

Earlier in the year I read that the Braves had interest in Joe Blanton. Any possibility there? Or is he even worth it?

[A2000]

The Braves should take a look at the Yankees organization. The Yankees 3rd round pick from a year ago is doing very well in the minors from what I understand. His name is Brett Gardner and I had the pleasure of meeting him before his senior year at the College of Charleston in 2005. Very good, quick outfield that may be a fix for the Braves in a year. I don't know about immediate success from him, but he is something special and will be a good major league player in time.

[Hornet]

They Braves really dont need to make many moves imo. I wanted a lead off hitter last year and was against Giles have to go throught his learning curve, I am pretty sure Marcus will be one of the better lead off guys next year if we allow him to stay at the top of the order. All I want is a lefty and a set-up man quality pitcher. If it doesn't cost too much I would love to get Dotel.

So ideally tthe team would look something like...

Line-up:
1. Giles 2B
2. Renteria SS
3. C Jones 3B
4. A Jones CF
5. Laroche 1B
6. Francouer RF
7. McCann C
8. Diaz LF
9. Pitcher

Rotation:
1. Smoltz
2. Hudson
3. James
4. Hampton
5. Davies/Ramirez
Closer: Wick man
Set-up man: Free agent
Lefty specialist: McBride and Free agent

also I know you guys will bring all your stats and all that suff, but Cormier impresses the hell out of me, I wish we could get him in the fifth spot in the roation.

now he is a radical idea, let's say the braves make the Andruw for Crisp, Lester, and Hansen deal. Also dump Hampton in the deal. Now use the extra money and sign Daisuke Matsuzaka.

our roation looks like...

1. Smoltz
2. Hudson
3. Matsuzaka
4. James
5. Lester

and our line-up

1. Crisp CF
2. Giles 2B
3. C Jones 3B
4. Laroche 1B
5. Francouer RF
6. Renteria SS
7. McCann C
8. Diaz LF (we could possibly package Ramirez and Davies to get a LF)
9. Pitcher

I am not going to advocate that, but if Hudson could get back to form, and Daisuke Matsuzaka pitches like many think he can, the offense will score enough runs to win us alot of games and be a WS contender. I think the safer bet is just to do what I first mentioned and then during the year aquire a starter if we need to, because we definately have the pieces to make good deals.

[razyshady]

Ok all of you have interesting posts. However am I one of the few that likes Giles? I know hes not the greatest at the leadoff spot, but maybe move him down near the end of the order. I know he can hit, and I know hes going to be working extra hard in the offseason to get back where he should be. As far as his defense goes, man hes amazing at 2 bag.

After this disappointing season I really wish that we would have gave Furcal that extra money. Hes laughing now playing in LA and I just hope they crush those damn mets. Furcal better not get another DUI though.

I know theres a huge money concern, but I really hate how the braves owners are cheap, i mean come on if you expect your team to win the WS, spend some extra cash. raising the tickets by 7% won't be that big of a deal if the team is going to win a lot of ball games, it'll be worth it.

As far as getting a leadoff hitter, I think it'd be worth getting rid of some young prospects for Carl Crawford, man that kid can hit and run, he is a true leadoff hitter.

Now about hampton, i'd rather see Ramirez and Davies 4th and 5th spot, and just get rid of hampton for whoever you can get it, hes not worth the time or the money anymore. He'll never produce the #s he put up when he played for the Mets.

And don't talk smack about Francoeur, hes only going to get better, and hes so young with a rocket of an arm in the field. Him and McCann better braves for a long long time.

I believe Wickman will do a lot better in 07 then any closer we had in the last fews years with the exception of Smoltz.

Would you rather bring back Star of Joe's Vs Pro's John Rocker? lol

Andruw Jones has to resign with the braves in time for'08 and pay him the money he deserves, we would be soooo stupid to get rid of him. Hes the best CF in the game, Vernon Wells is amazing too, but hes no Andruw. And i'm sure later in his career, he'd be willing to do what Chipper did and restructure his contract.

[ejruiz777]

I'd like to see a reasonable possible trade that would land Carl Crawford for the Braves. I just don't think there is one...

[ejruiz777]

Also, who else thinks that packaging Giles, Hampton and around $9M in cash in exchange for some prospect(s) is a good idea? I can see Boston as a possible trade partner in a deal such as this. Any thoughts?

[ejruiz777]

All in all I'd like to see Hampton and Reitsma, as well as maybe Ramirez and Giles, off the books before the start of the 2007. If we could do all that, bring Glavine back and stay reasonably healthy, I think we'd be in really good shape for next season and years to come. Check it out:

Starting Line-up in Batting Order:
2B - Willy Aybar - $0.33MM
SS - Edgar Renteria - $6.333MM
3B - Chipper Jones - $11MM
CF - Andruw Jones - $13.5MM
1B - Adam LaRoche - $0.42MM
C - Brian McCann - $0.3335MM
RF - Jeff Francoeur - $0.3845MM
LF - Matt Diaz - $0.33MM

Bench:
C - Brayan Pena - $0.33MM
IF - Pete Orr - $0.34MM
IF - Martin Prado - $0.33MM
1B/OF - Scott Thorman - $0.33MM
OF - Ryan Langerhans - $0.345MM

Starting Rotation:
SP - John Smoltz - $8MM
SP - Tom Glavine - $8MM
SP - Tim Hudson - $6MM
SP - Chuck James - $0.327MM
SP - Kyle Davies - $0.3335MM

Bullpen:
RP - Bob Wickman - $6.5MM
RP - Oscar Villarreal - $0.4625MM
RP - Lance Cormier - $0.345MM
RP - Macay McBride - $0.332MM
RP - Blaine Boyer - $0.336MM
RP - Chad Paronto - $0.33MM
RP - Ken Ray - $0.33MM

All that for under $70MM... I like it very much. As a matter of fact, we could then even bring in a high priced FA (like Soriano to play either LF or 2B?) and still be well off with regards to the budget. Man, I REALLY like it!

[vt_Brady2705]

Just b/c Boston has money doesn't mean they're stupid with it. It's highly unlikely that they'd be willing to take a $14million contract coming off of Tommy John and not pitching at all over the last year.

Besides that, everyone talks about shipping Giles to certain teams. The only problem is, these teams already have 2nd basemen who are as good, if not better than Marcus Giles. I've seen people talk about sending him to San Diego because of the brother connection, when San Diego has a great rookie in Josh Barfield. Doesn't make sense. People say send him to Boston, when Boston has Mark Loretta, a much more productive 2nd basemen. I've seen people say to package him with young starters for Carl Crawford, when Crawford already has Jorge Cantu at 2nd (a 30 HR threat just 1 year ago), and if they're smart would know better then to take on a player in Giles who they know they won't retain once he becomes a FA this offseason.

We just have to accept the fact that Hampton is going to be here in 2007, and Giles will have to go to a team in need of a 2nd basemen, possibly the Athletics. Reitsma will be gone, I think the Braves aren't obligated to keep him this year. I don't know if he's a FA, or if we can just release him, maybe he's arbitration eligible or something, I really don't know what his deal is, but I'm like 99% sure the Braves do not have to keep him on payroll unless they choose to; which would be lunacy.

As far as Glavine, I think Hampton, Horacio, and James will all be better in 2007 than Tom Glavine. Look at the way Glavine declined over the second half. Once everyone realized, ok, he throws a curveball now (which apparently took the first half to realize), he just became: Tom Glavine. Guy with an 86 mph fastball, average curveball, and a changeup that, because of a lack of a fastball, is all of a sudden not quite so great.

[Leeman]

I thought I read that Hampton had a no trade clause and He didn't plan on going anywhere. I think he will stay put, I mean he really does have the potential to have a great season. And if they really thought it was worth it, they could get Carl Crawford, it would just be a matter of who to give up. Would Tampa want Salty? we kinda already have a good catcher....

[Leeman]

Also, if we trade Giles to the Athletics, what would we get?

[jlbarrett]

Why in the world would we trade francouer? What is he, 23? Most people aren't even in the big leagues, much less hitting 30hrs. I know he has a horrible walk ratio, but his average was 2 points lower than andrews. when he starts to walk more, he will have the same kind of out put as andrew... and he will start to walk more. Most young players don't walk when they get to the big leagues. It takes a couple or three years.

Why would the braves trade davies either? he is only 23. He got hurt, Big deal. Do you realize that in tom glavines second year in the pro's he was 7-17? You prob. didn't realize that. If davies did that you would just give up on him more than you already. Would you want to give up on glavine.... I didn't think so. The fact is, these player, francouer and davies are both way too young to give up on

[jlbarrett]

Have any of you realized all the glory mauer is getting when mcCann is really getting overlooked by comparison. just look at the numbers:

McCann: 24/93/.333
Mauer : 13/84/.347

and McCann had 80 less ab's and Mauer plays in the metrodome, a much better hitters park than turner feild. I would honestly pick McCann

[ejruiz777]

The #1 reason why I shouldn't ever be a GM (and, I may add, that's a mighty long list) is that I change my mind nearly every other minute. I'd really like to keep Giles, but only if we bat him 2nd or 8th.

I think that we should trade for Ryan Freel of the Reds, park him in LF and have him leadoff for us. He's the prototypical leadoff hitter (nice OBP plus good steal numbers) has a low payroll number ($1.2M last year) and should be inexpensive to get. I think we could nab him for as little as Horacio Ramirez.

While I'm not a fan of our rotation at the moment, it'll have to do. A little health is all our bullpen needs to be very good and our lineup is already great. This small deal might be all that we need to be in contention next year. Picking up a solid, veteran reliever (Chad Bradford?) wouldn't hurt either. Here's what I'd like to see us looking like to start 2007:

Starting Lineup in Batting Order:
LF - Ryan Freel
SS - Edgar Rentaria
3B - Chipper Jones
CF - Andruw Jones
1B - Adam LaRoche
C - Brian McCann
RF - Jeff Francoeur
2B - Marcus Giles
P - Pitcher's Spot

Bench:
C - Brayan Pena
IF - Willy Aybar
1B/OF - Scott Thorman
OF - Matt Diaz
OF - Ryan Langerhans

Rotation:
SP - John Smoltz
SP - Mike Hampton
SP - Tim Hudson
SP - Chuck James
SP - Kyle Davies

Bullpen:
RP - Bob Wickman
RP - Oscar Villareal
RP - Blaine Boyer
RP - Micay McBride
RP - Anthony Lerew
RP - Joey Devine
RP - Chad Paronto

Notes: Giles and Rentaria are pretty much interchangable at 2nd and 8th in the batting order. Francoeur is so low because both McCann and LaRoche have displayed plenty of HR power while posting far better OPS. The rotation is setup the way it is to split the lefties up, but if you'd like you can switch Hudson and Davies for Hampton and James. There are a ton of young, viable options to fill out the bullpen; I pretty much picked the names at random, but you could change a few and I wouldn't be upset.

Moral of the story is this: the Atlanta Braves already have a VERY good team and don't need to do much in order to make a run at the postseason next year.

[Jon93405]

It's as easy as this. First, sell the team to Bill Gates.

Second, Aramis Ramirez has the right to void his contract. With all the thigs going wrong in Chicago, convincing him to leave and sign with Atlanta shouldn't be hard. (Who doesn't want to play for the Braves.)

The Yankees hate A-Rod and the fans will want him out. They know Chipper can handle the pressure in New York so I can't see why this wouldn't work.

Chipper Jones, Tim Hudson, Marcus Giles, Ryan Langerhans, Mike Hampton for Robsinson Cano, Alex Rodriguez, Bobby Abreu.

Now we're getting somewhere. Steinbrenner loves big name pitchers and Hudson and Hampton are two of the biggest.

Trade Jeff Francour and Edgar Renteria (they want him back) for Manny Ramirez and Josh Beckett

Sign Mike Mussina

Sign Andy Pettite

Sign Jason Schmidt

Sign Kerry Wood

Sign Francisco Cordero

Sign Eric Gagne

When the Yankees decline Mariano Rivera's option, (stay with me here) sign Mariano Rivera.

Now let's take a look at what we have.

2B Robinson Cano
RF Bobby Abreu
LF Manny Ramirez
SS Alex Rodriguez
3B Aramis Ramirez
CF Andruw Jones
1B Adam Larouche
C Brian McCann

Rotation

John Smotlz
Mike Mussina
Andy Pettite
Jason Schmidt
Josh Beckett

Bullpen
Mariano Rivera
Eric Gagne
Francisco Cordero
Oscar Villareal
Bob Wickman
Joey Devine
Blaine Boyer
Tyler Yates

AAA Rotation
Kerry Wood
Chuck James
Horacio Ramirez
Kyle Davies
Lance Cormier

As long as we would have the best rotaion in baseball, might as well have the best AAA rotation as well. If a starter becomes injured or performs poorly, there will be five cabable players with starter stamina fully capable to hanldle a permanent decision.

Well, someone forward this to Scherholtz and lets get things moving.

[RotoAuthority]

Now that was some dedicated sarcasm.

[Jon93405]

OK, I'll make this comment more serious.

I think getting Carl Crawford should be a big priority. If the Rays are looking to shop him, the Braves should be buyers.

There is a lot of talk that he would be too expensive, but he would be a fantastic leadoff man and he's only 25 fitting well into the "Baby Braves."

Jared Saltamacchia could be good trade bait. There isn't any room for him in the bigs since McCann is only 22 and Laroche had a break so moving him to first doesn't make a lot of sense either. With Brayan Pena performing well at both AAA and the majors, the Braves are very deep at catcher and most teams aren't. Whether in a deal for Crawford or a frontline starter, Salty should be moved even if his value dropped a little with his subpar season.

The Braves are so deep at middle infield they should try a few players out at second, (Aybar, Prado, Pena, Mark Lemke.) There are only 2 spots in the Braves lineups up for grabs, and thats pretty good. The Braves have established a dynasty by introducing home grown players and they should continue to do so. I also think Kelly Johnson can be a great player if given the opportunity.

Giles, Salty and Thorman are all guys I think could pull in some major talent. Any of the young pitchers in the Padres rotation would be a huge boost for the Braves.

[razyshady]

Hey Jon93405 I agree with you.

I really do believe that Carl Crawford should be a big priority. Like you said the braves have the talent in the farm system to lure Crawford to ATL by offering the Rays a decent deal.

Man that'd be awesome if they got him. Then the next step would be to get rid of Hampton.

[bizfitch]

Hey Roto, I'm an Atlanta Braves fan and just recently discovered your website, its awesome by the way so i wanted to throw out some ideas of how I would put together the 07' Braves your feedback would be greatly appreciated.

1) SIGN (yes I said sign) Giles to contract maybe 3 yrs. $18MM. Giles is still on the better side of 30 and I think that reason he struggled in 06' was because he was trying to do to much, he altered his approach at the plate trying to adjust to hitting leadoff, if he can just relax and slide back down to the 2 hole (which I'll address in a minute) he'll be just fine. Two other points about Giles, I don't see anyone in the organization who is ready to be a starter at second anytime soon, I mean Prado is definitely not the answer and I see Aybar as a good Utility guy. Also I think Giles has quietly become one of the better defensive 2B in the league.

2)TRADE Renteria to the Astros, you should be able to get Everett and Qualls (or maybe Lidge). First this does three great things for the Braves #1 it allows Giles who in my opinion is a better hitter than Renteria to go back to the 2 slot where he is much more comfortable, #2 Everett immediatley improves the defense, while its true he can't hit, he is highly regarded as the best defensive SS out there which will definitely help sinkerballers Hampton & Hudson, while Renteria wasn't horrible Everett is a big upgrade and Houston fans would practically give him away and the Braves have a great offense so they can afford the drop off at SS # 3 Chad Qualls or Brad Lidge helps the bullpen enough said! On the Houston side I think they would love to have Edgar Renteria, he's good for a .290/.360/.425 with 100 runs scored his power may even increase in that ballpark, and he is very familiar with those NL central opponents.

3) Get a LF who can hit leadoff, I am pretty flexible here I like the Ryan Freel for Horacio Ramirez idea, or even signing Dave Roberts, heck if we could get Carl Crawford that'd be great but I don't see that happening. Freel probably makes the most sense if Cinncy gives him up

4) Another point that I wanted to make is that currently the Braves are committed to Renteria for 3 more years, I would rather see that committment go to Giles who is a little younger and it doesn't appear that anyone will be on his heels for his job like Elvis Andrus is at SS who I have heard nothing but great things about.

So Here is what I think the 07' Atlanta Braves could look like:

C - Brian McCann $0.3335MM
C - Brayan Pena $0.33MM
1B - Adam LaRoche $0.42MM
2B - Marcus Giles $6.00MM
SS - Adam Everett $2.00MM
3B - Chipper Jones $11MM
IF - Pete Orr $0.34MM
IF - Willy Aybar $0.33MM
IF - Martin Prado $0.33MM
LF - Ryan Freel $1.5MM
CF - Andruw Jones $13.5MM
RF - Jeff Francoeur $0.38MM
OF - Ryan Langerhans $0.34MM
OF - Matt Diaz $0.33MM
1B/OF - Scott Thorman $0.33MM

SP - John Smotlz $8MM
SP - Tim Hudson $6MM
SP - Mike Hampton $14.5MM
SP - Chuck James $0.327MM
SP - Kyle Davies $0.3335MM

RP - Bob Wickman $6.5MM
RP - Oscar Villareal $0.46MM
RP - Lance Cormier $0.345MM
RP - Macay McBride $0.332MM
RP - Kevin Barry $0.33MM
RP - Blaine Boyer $0.33MM
RP - Joey Devine $0.33MM
RP - Wayne Franklin $0.33MM
RP - Chad Paronto $0.33MM
RP - Tyler Yates $0.33MM
RP - Chad Qualls $0.37MM

That should still keep the payroll around 80 million

Lineup:
1) Ryan Freel LF
2) Marcus Giles 2B
3) Chipper Jones 3B
4) Andruw Jones CF
5) Brian McCann C
6) Jeff Francouer Rf
7) Adam LaRoche 1B
8) Adam Everett SS

Let me know what ya'll think

[Jon93405]

Ray Durham filed for free agency. Look at his stats from last season.

.293 BA .360 OBP 26 HR 30 2B.

His high power numbers may have something to do with Barry Bonds being in the lineup but the majority of his at bats came in the fifth spot behind Bonds. Batting Fifth he hit .317 with 21 HR in 319 AB's.

He's a career .281 hitter with a .354 OBP plus he has postseason experience.

If the Braves sign him, not only will they get a great player, but that's one less second baseman on the free agent market, further increasing the demand for Giles.

Durhman could bat leadoff since he's done it before and done it well. If they get another leadoff hitter, (Carl Crawford? In my dreams) then he would be a great bat at the bottom of the order and could fill in the middle of the lineup when Chipper gets injured.

[Jon93405]

The Padres traded Josh Barfield today. Could this be to clear the way for Marcus Giles to join his brother?