2007 Chicago White Sox

Next up: a 2007 Team Outlook for the White Sox.

Kenny Williams's contract obligations:

C - A.J. Pierzynski - $5.5MM
C -
1B - Paul Konerko - $12MM
2B - Tadahito Iguchi - $3.25MM (club option)
SS - Juan Uribe - $4.15MM
3B - Joe Crede - $2.875MM
IF/OF - Pablo Ozuna - $0.5MM
1B/OF - Ross Gload - $0.35MM
LF - Josh Fields - $0.33MM, Ryan Sweeney - $0.33MM
CF - Brian Anderson - $0.33MM
RF - Jermaine Dye - $6MM
DH - Jim Thome - $8.5MM
OF - Rob Mackowiak - $2.75MM

SP - Jose Contreras - $9MM
SP - Mark Buehrle - $9.5MM (club option)
SP - Jon Garland - $10MM
SP - Freddy Garcia - $10MM
SP - Javier Vazquez - $12.5MM
SP - Brandon McCarthy - $0.332MM

RP - Bobby Jenks - $0.34MM
RP - Mike MacDougal - $0.43MM
RP - Neal Cotts - $0.4MM
RP - Matt Thornton - $0.355MM
RP - Charlie Haeger - $0.33MM
RP - Boone Logan - $0.327MM
RP - Sean Tracey - $0.33MM

Buyouts
RP - Dustin Hermanson - $0.5MM

Arbitration-eligible; could be nontendered
LF - Scott Podsednik - $1.9MM
IF - Alex Cintron - $1.6MM

Assuming Podsednik, Cintron, and Hermanson are not invited back, the Sox have about $100MM tied up.  Throw in raises for Crede and others and you're probably around $105MM.  The Sox entered 2006 a touch under $103MM, and the payroll shouldn't be significantly higher than that.  Keep in mind that the subtraction of a starter would free up some cash.

The Sox will need a decent backup catcher, but some of the better options like Vance Wilson and Mike Redmond have been locked up.

Around the infield: Iguchi's option is a no-brainer.  But what to do with Juan Uribe?  The man had the worst OBP in baseball (though he continued to hit for good power).  His glovework is top five in the game for sure.

Kenny Williams could trade Uribe and acquire someone better to play shortstop (if perhaps in a separate deal).  Some Sox fans are clamoring for a Michael Young trade if possible.  Young, however, is the worst defensive shortstop in baseball.  It would be exchanging Uribe's OBP problem (and a ton of young prospect talent) for another problem.  You'd still probably rather have Young, but not at the price.

Baseball Prospectus rates Uribe's '06 performance at 2.6 wins, and his 2004 peak at 5.1 wins.  Aside from giving up the farm for Miguel Tejada, the Sox could sign Julio Lugo or trade for Orlando Cabrera.  It won't be easy if Williams tries to upgrade at short.

Crede's been doing one-year deals, and could go up to five or six million after arbitration.  If he elects not to have back surgery, the team may be reluctant to ink him to a multiyear contract.  Plenty of teams need third basemen, so feel free to concoct wild trade scenarios.  Go ahead, I'll wait.

If the Sox do trade Crede, Josh Fields probably becomes the third baseman.  He'd be a step down but might be able to get the job done following a .305/.379/.515 line in Charlotte.  Fields did have a weak offensive second half for the Knights though.  And you wouldn't want to replace both Crede and Uribe, as the left-side infield defense would be severely weakened.  The Sox may very well stand pat at both positions.

Depending on who you ask, something may have to be done about center field.  Brian Anderson has his supporters for another shot at center, though he still wasn't league average offensively for his position in the second half.  And league average for a CF isn't asking much.  We know Ozzie and Juan Pierre have mutual affection, but Williams doesn't feel the love.  Other options include Jim Edmonds and Gary Matthews Jr. and, to a lesser extent, Dave Roberts or Kenny Lofton.  Maybe a deal for Ryan Freel?  No acquisition could top Vernon Wells, but competition will be fierce if he's available.  There's no easy answer here, of course.

Left field is more of an agreed-upon problem.  The Sox have probably had enough of Pods, so they'll either nontender or trade him.  Should Crede stay, Fields and Ryan Sweeney could get a look.  Otherwise there's Cliff Floyd (a Chicago native), Moises Alou, David Dellucci, Luis Gonzalez, or maybe even Alfonso Soriano.  Or maybe Kenny peddles his one possible surplus, starting pitching, as part of a deal for Manny Ramirez or Carl Crawford.  If the Sox want to make another deal with Philly, Pat Burrell is available for peanuts but would have to approve a trade. 

The rotation, of course, is six deep.  Assuming Williams's six-man rotation idea doesn't fly, someone has to go to make room for McCarthy.  Popular opinion is Garcia, who could interest the Mets (and would succeed in the NL).  But Buehrle and Vazquez are certainly fair game.  KW is good at what he does, and he'll find a way to turn one of these starters into a good outfielder.  How about Matt Murton or Luke Scott, to toss out a few names?  I'm sure Kenny can do better.

Williams has pledged to add a reliever.  Haeger should join the pen if he's not traded; his knuckler would certainly be a change from flamethrowers like Jenks and MacDougal.  Hermanson could return at reduced pay, but at least one other proven guy will be imported.  Aaron Heilman could be available via trade.  Justin Speier could be on the radar.  Various free agents fit the bill.  Maybe the Sox will get creative, grab a guy like Byung-Hyun Kim or Kerry Wood.

It looks like another fun offseason in Chicago, as the Sox have all sorts of ways to play this hand. What would you do?

   

Comments

[TNS]

Vance Wilson signed an extension with Detroit during the season. Redmond did the same with the Twins. Great backup Catchers aren't around this offseason. Most available catchers are going to be seeking being the feature catcher (Zaun, Molina, etc).

[Yu Hsing Chen]

This is a hard one to figure out.

Their offense is fine on paper and in reality, as they were still one of the top scoring team in the game dspite boasting the blind hacking of Juan Uribe and light slapping of Podsedniek.

I'd think it would be unwise to move Uribe, who's still fairly cheap, plays a tough position well, and hits for power. Pod could go either way, if he accept a very minor arbitration maybe keep him. or trade him. it could go either way really.

The real key is obviously to trade either Garcia or Vazquez (they probably hope to trade Vazquez but will probably settle for Garcia) to make room for Macarthy. and in return try to streghten the bullpen.

Joe Crede could be moved if the price is right, and with the thin 3B market it would at least be worth it to listen to offers. but still. unless a killer deals comes along I wouldn't take it.

I don't forsee too many moves in the southside, they'll probably end up just moving one of the starters for RP and/or prospects then get one more RP.

Cintron have been pretty good, don't see why they would want to non tender him, he still have decent trade value to teams that desperately need middle infielders. (Royals?)

[RotoAuthority]

Oops. I think I knew that in the back of my mind but forgot. Thanks.

[RotoAuthority]

Cintron is pretty good but what if he costs $2 or $3 mil?

[buehrlebro]

Let me see if this works...

[buehrlebro]

Great. Sometimes it doesn't work for me.

1. Pick up the options Dye, Iguchi and Buehrle. Buy out Hermanson's contract.

2. Trade Joe Crede and Scott Podsednik for Khalil Greene and Cla Meredith. This gives the White Sox a consistent offensive shortstop and a righty specialist, something they've needed all year, and replaces Dave Roberts while giving them an established 3B.

3. Trade Juan Uribe, Javier Vasquez, Mike MacDougal and Jose Contreras for Roy Oswalt and Brad Lidge if at all possible. I don't see how the Astros could turn something like that down with their pitching problems and severe need for offense and a shortstop- heck, Uribe or Everett could play third.

4. Tender Cintron a contract. This would prove invaluable if Greene goes down.

5. Chris Stewart provides an easy solution for the back up catcher and handles Charlie Haeger better than anyone.

6. Keep Ryan Sweeny in AAA for 08, after the White Sox can let go of Jermaine Dye. Here he can continue to develop power.

7. Keep Brian Anderson in CF. He'll reward Kenny and Ozzie for their patience.

8. Jerry Owens will leadoff and play LF. If he struggles, bring up Sweeny to fill in said roles.

LF Owens/Sweeny
2B/SS Iguchi/Greene
RF Dye
DH Thome
1B Konerko
C Pierzynski
SS/2B Greene/Iguchi
3B Fields
CF Anderson

UTIL Ozuna
C Stewart
UTIL Mackowiack
SS Cintron
1B Gload/Rogowski, etc

Oswalt
Garland
Buehrle
Garcia
McCarthy

Meredith
Haeger
Cotts
Thornton
Lidge
Jenks

[buehrlebro]

On second thought, I would probably take Uribe and MacDougal from the Astros trade and give it to the Padres, inserting Crede into the Astros deal. They surely haven't forgotten how he played against them in the 05 WS and could hit fourth behind Berkman, proving 30-35 homers with the short LF fence.

[gatling]

I don't think there is anyway the Astros do that deal. They have three options at 3B of their own, why trade Oswalt for another one? Unless they traded Ensberg first, and decided on Huff in LF or let him walk, I don't see Crede going to Houston. Beyond that, Oswalt got a full no-trade clause with extension. I don't see him approving a deal to Chicago.

I could possibly see the Pads making the Crede deal, but definitely not the one with Pods and Uribe as the centerpieces.

[buehrlebro]

In that case, I would trade Vasquez for a couple of prospects. The White Sox and the other team could split what they feel appropriate of Vasquez's contract. There are several teams needing starting pitching.

[buehrlebro]

In turn, trade Uribe and Podsednik for, say Craig Hansen and cash.

[buehrlebro]

Simply put, it will be a struggle for Kenny Williams to find a way to give his young players a chance, which many of them deserve. It just so happens that Owens, Fields, Sweeney, Haeger, Tracey, McCarthy is well overdue, and soon Broadway will be ready. I think that there are a lot of organizational log jams and Kenny Williams may be forced to drop the option on Mark Buehrle, which would be highly unfortunate in my opinion. I think that the only realistic way ot of this is to trade one or two of his starting pitchers and outfielders for prospects.

[gatling]

Again, that's a good deal for the White Sox, but I don't see any reason why Boston would make that trade. Why would Boston give up on Hansen that quickly?

[buehrlebro]

There are really a lot of options with Podsednik. Trade him for Brian Fuentes? Possibly, but improbably. Scott Linebrink? More possible. Chad Qualls, Manny Delcarmen, Mike Gonzalez, Solomon Torres(I have a feeling the Pirates will be aggressive this offseason) are all possibilites to trade Scott Podsednik for. Here's one for the ages, Podsednik and Uribe plus Sean Tracey for Jack Wilson and Mike Gonzalez/Torres?

[RotoAuthority]

0% chance he doesn't exercise the Buehrle option.

[buehrlebro]

That's fine and good, but how is he going to make room for McCarthy and Fields?

[gatling]

I don't know how many teams come calling for Pods when it's equally likely he gets non-tendered. Buehrle's option will be picked up, but I could see him being traded after that. Vazquez is probably the guy KW wants to move, while Buehrle and Garcia are the most desirable of the likely available arms.

[buehrlebro]

The White Sox expressed interest in Dontrelle Willis. Could this deal work for both sides?

Sean Tracey, Brian Anderson, Lance Broadway, Boone Logan for Dontrelle

I'm sure the Marlins would ask for Josh Fields, but I think he's untouchable.

[Neifi_Chicken]

Omar Vizquel to CWS is something that could be pursued. If SF goes into full rebuilding mode they could try and move Omar, who is coming off a very strong year.

Obviously Ozzie Guillen thinks the world of his fellow countrymen (as he expressed in the WBC) and would advocate such a move for Williams.

The Giants would be selling Omar at peak value and could likely get a pretty good prospect for Omar

[Pawtucket Pat]

Why is Chicago so down on Podsednik anyway? Is it just because he's a light hitting corner outfielder coming off a bad year or is there something more going on there? 40-50 steal guys are still a bit tough to come by, even if he has lost a step.

[FT]

Podsednik is a horrible baseball player. He's the worst defensive leftfielder in baseball. He possesses the throwing arm of an eleven-year-old girl. He gets horrible reads on flyballs and has to attempt to make up for it with his "speed." He frequently doesn't look the ball into his glove where he employs some kind of sloppy one-handed ball-will-inevitably-fall-out-of-my-glove technique. He was caught stealing nearly 1/3 of the time. He struck out like that was his intended purpose rather than stealing bases without the power to show for it. Despite his faulty stolen base totals, he is not as quick as perhaps an outsider would surmise. He's a technique runner who's also lost a step since the 2005 ASB. There is absolutely no aspect of his game that is beneficial to the team and, in most cases, is actually detrimental. He's probably one of, if not THE, worst everyday starters in baseball.

[start_wearing_purple]

buehrle, I don't see the sox giving up broadway. Or for that matter the Marlins not asking for McCarthy. But it also seems to be overvaluing Dontrelle. Looking at Dontrelle's mechanics, I can't help but wonder if he'll burn out soon. Though I've been proven wrong before...

Considering the SP market I wouldn't be suprised to see big offers for Garcia.

[FT]

Here are some ideas for your edification:

Buerhle's option must be picked up. In addition to the option, a new contract must be negotiated. He is a FA after next season. If a reasonable long term contract cannot be negotiated, he must be the pitcher traded. The Sox cannot lose him at the end of the year for sandwich picks or nothing, considering the new amendment being considered regarding draft pick compensation. If a new contract can be negotiated, KW will listen to the best offer for whichever starter. My order of preference for trading would be Contreras, Garcia, Buerhle, Vazquez, Garland. (I'm highly Peter Angelos when it comes to pitching injuries.) I could see the Mets being a leading candidate to land one of the Sox pitchers.

Options on Dye and Iguchi are no-brainers. Cintron will be brought back IMO. I'd certainly look into signing Justin Speier.

With a payroll of at least $105, or, in my estimation, $115, the Sox simply cannot have positions occupied by unproven rookies. They are not rebuilding, they are retooling. What has Owens done in AAA to make you think he could even be league average? He put up the same numbers as Podsednik this season... in AAA!! His defense is also pathetic. Fields is a highly touted prospect but only has a handful of ML at-bats and carries the traditional Sox minor leaguer "long swing." Think Brian Anderson this year or even Joe Crede up until only recently. Having Brian Anderson in CF is enough uncertainty for a team with one of the highest payrolls in the league. When you're spending that much, you have to have a certain level of production certainty that does not come with inserting two rookies into your starting lineup in addition to a second year player who vastly underachieved offensively for most of the season.

Crede will probably not be traded this offseason. He will not be a FA at the end of next year, so there is no impetus to do so given the alternatives. It's obvious his back will be an issue. If he elects to have the small procedure as requested by the White Sox, it would likely lead to a quicker decision regarding a long term contract. However, as I'm sure it's been noted, Crede's agent, Scott Boras, would be more inclined to have his client reach free agency so he could cash in, not to mention his already extremely strained relationship with the Sox brass. Crede has been hesitant to have the procedure done, as I'm sure many people would, and Boras is utilizing that tepidation to expedite his free agency in the form of one-year deals with the Sox for the next two seasons. If the Sox intend to be contenders next year, they will not find a better option than Crede for third base and would be better suited to retain his services unless completely bowled over by an offer. I'm thinking in the realm of an elite starter, a flurry of premium Brandon Wood-esque prospects, or some combination thereof. If Arod tanks in the playoffs again, and the Yanks decide to trade him before he gets booed out of town, I believe KW would have interest there. Previous to his massive contract with Texas, the frontrunning team to sign him was the White Sox (again, there have been allegations of Scott Boras entanglement). I'd be open to trading Crede+a SP(+prospects?) for Arod(+cash?) if Cashman and Steinbrenner were amicable to the idea.

If by some miracle, Crede elects to have the small surgery, recovers well, and is signed to a long term contract, then Fields can be dealt. I'd look into the obvious possibilities like Crawford. Perhaps trading a starter for prospects and throwing them TB's way along with Fields would be enticing. I'd almost prefer a similar deal be worked out with the Phils if Jimmy Rollins was available. However, after their run the second half of this year, that doesn't look like a possibility. The only way they might possibly be persuaded is to tack on the entirety of Pat Burrell's contract.

If Crawford/Rollins negotiations are unfruitful, there is of course Soriano, Pierre, Catalanotto, Stewart, Hunter, etc. I'm not sure if Soriano is the type of player the Sox are looking for, at least there have been no hints to the contrart. Unfortunately, if I had to guess which player was most likely to end up in LF for the Sox in 2007, I'd have to say Pierre. Pierre is only moderately better than Podsednik and will be paid substantially more. Kenny's an astute man, and I hope he'd have the sense not to listen to the pleas of Guillen if in fact he is clamoring for Pierre.

Ultimately, it's very difficult to predict what could happen this year. There aren't any clear, perfect fits available to the Sox via free agency. Williams has shown no tepidation for completing trades in the past, and I'd expect more of the same this offseason.

[palehose35]

I'm really pleased you mentioned Ryan Freel as a possibility. Since the elimination of my Sox, I've felt he is the best replacement for Pods, who just hasn't cut it anymore in any facet of the game. Freel is unbeatable defensively, and I feel he would be more than capable leading off. He gets on base at an above average clip, and is an solid basestealer. In addition, he plays the game with the same gritty style I felt the 2006 White Sox lacked.

Given the Reds need for a SP, and the White Sox desire to trade a big name SP, I feel this deal could be a reality.

[Bosoxwest]

Young is the worst defensive shortstop in baseball? Umm, for 2004/5, maybe..maybe!..for 2006, no: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding?groupId=7&season=2006&seasonType=2&split=82&sortColumn=zoneRating

[RotoAuthority]

Fielding Bible