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Interest In Pavano

Yesterday I mentioned that Carl Pavano had his first healthy effort this spring, a major step towards a trade.  The Cards, Rockies, and Mariners have expressed interest in the past.

Today, a George King report indicates some other possible suitors.  King mentions that scouts from the Braves, Mets, and White Sox attended the game at which Pavano pitched.  Whether they were there to watch him is an open question, but it is reasonable.

A cross-town trade would be particularly interesting, although the Mets are not short on Pavano-like options.

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Yunel Escobar for Pavano plus 15 mil
Braves get Pavano for 4 mil and yanks get Jeters replacement in 5 or 6 years or less

u dont know omar if u think there is a chance of him acquiring pavano.

pavano will never be a met.

I'd be amazed if Cashman traded Pavano plus $15m. It would be completely against everything he did this winter. It would only cost $4 million a year more to keep him. Unless they really believe that Pavano will miss most of the year, that's hard to justify, unless they're getting something really good back in return.

Remember, a healthy Pavano (big if of course) is better than someone like Lilly or Meche, but costs about the same.

Pavano plus $2-$3 million a year for a pair of low level minor leaguers or something I could definitely see happening.

Remember, Pavano is only getting traded if the team getting him believes he's going to be healthy. A deal has to be based off that idea, and the current market for pitching.

Yanksfan, you are the at least the second person I have seen just state as a fact that Pavano is somehow better than Lilly, consider their career numbers:

Pavano- 1037.2 IP 61 W's 64 L's 673 K's 4.269 ERA 1.353 WHIP

Lilly- 936.0 IP 59 W's 58 L's 799 Ks 4.596 ERA 1.378 WHIP

those are two pretty similar looking pitchers to me- but, when you consider that Pavano has pitched most of his career in a favorable home park in the NL East, while Lilly spent most of his career in the AL East, it is pretty clear that Lilly has been the better pitcher, even assuming Pavano is ever healthy again.

Plus, Pavano is now a problem in the clubhouse, several Yankees have openly mocked him in the media and stated they didn't think he was really hurt.

The Yankees really do need to trade him, they just need to hold out long enough to make sure they have a replacement, plus to hope he stays healthy and reasonably effective long enough so they don't have to eat too much salary.

Yeah, I agree. As I said in the last thread, if they're including that much money it had better be a hell of a prospect. And completely agree that if the Yankees include about $6M and he's healthy, Pavano at $7M a year is a bargain.

And yes, he'll only be traded if he proves to be healthy throughout the spring. For now, teams are willing to take the risk unless the Yankees included a ton of money and get little back, and from NY's standpoint it makes more sense to wait and see.

u guys know a site where they have updated player salaries?

jakec, I don't think Pavano is drastically better than Lilly. However, Pavano's best season (which also was his last full season) was a lot better than Lilly's best season.

I only used Lilly as a comparison salary wise. Would I rather have Lilly over Pavano? Yeah, but neither of them really excite me to be honest. Lilly you won't get 200 innings out of and Pavano you won't get 2 innings out of, but if you look at their track records they are (in Lilly's case) and can be (in Pavano's case) valuable starting pitchers.

This perception that the Yanks have to give 15 million with Pavano is so off base. The rest of the league is starving for SP (much like I think the Yanks are themselves) and the Yankees are not going to pay Pavano 15 million dollars to go excel at a St. Louis Cardinal or Seattle Mariner. It just won't happen. No organization is going to give up their best for Pavano after 1 healthy spring (if he makes it through) and it's ludicrous to think the Yankees are going to pay him more than the team acquiring him. At most they'l throw in a couple of million a season and that's only if they get back a top prospect.

As for the locker room issues, if Pavano pitches to his capabilities, there will be no issues. Arod and Jeter don't get along and the team still wins. Posada and RJ hated each other for awhile there. I'm sure there's not a team out there that doesn't have cliques in the locker room. You can't tell me every guy on the Red Sox thinks Schilling is awesome or Manny for that matter.

The locker room issue is totally blown out of proportion. He already cleared the air with Mussina and Pettite is trying to mentor him. If Pavano puts together a good spring, the Yanks will have to be wowed by an offer of prospects to give up 1/5th of the starting rotation right now.

Yeah. I'd take Lilly I guess, but you could make a case for a healthy Pavano. His control is significantly better, which is his main strong point.

Agree completely about the locker room issues too. It's not going to affect things one way or the other. The only thing that will is his health and the health/performance of the Yankees other starters.

And as for the money, it's dependent on the talent they're getting in return. I think if the Yankees include $6M (making him a $7M/year pitcher for 2 years), a team's 3rd or 4th best prospect (someone near the bottom of the BA's top 100 list, say) is reasonable.

Wans us to include $15M? Now you're getting into top 40 status.

The Yankees will be throwing in money no matter what kind of prospect. It's very rare to trade a player with a guarenteed contract of several million for a prospect and not pay that team part of the contract.

The Yankees can afford to trade Pavano. They have several pitchers waiting in the wings. Cashman is looking to get rid of clubhouse cancers and get younger so trading Pavano would fit his game plan. The Yankees aren't going to get much from Pavano, it might be wise to keep him longer. He's only made 17 starts in the past two seasons and it was shocking to see he was actually healthy this spring.

The Braves wouldn't even be scouting the guy if they didn't think the Yankees would pay at least half of the remainder on his contract. Realistically, mid-level prospect and 12 million for Pavano right now. As he proves to be healthy, the prospect will be better and the price to pay the team will be lower.

PS - You people are either terrible GMs or Yankee fans. The Yankees aren't getting a top 5 prospect for Pavano from any team. Do you people remember the Kazmir trade? He's going to be paid according to past performance, age, and health and 4.5 million per year for the next two years is reasonable. There are plenty of pitchers who make significantly less major league contracts and have outperformed Pavano. Even 4.5 million is a bit of a stretch.

I'm not sure what the reference to the Kazmir trade is. You're saying we should get a team's best prospect and one of the top pitching prospects in baseball (Kazmir) for a pitcher worse than Pavano (Zambrano)?

If Pavano is presumed healthy (and as we discussed, he will have to be for a trade to take place), what would he get as a free agent? Presumably pretty close to what he has now. Definitely considerably more than Marquis or Batista. I'd say something like $27M/3 or $34M/4.

Now cut that down to 2 years. You're talking damn close to the $20M that he's making now.

So you want the Yankees to give up $15M. So you're getting a $10M/year pitcher for $2.5M a season. How are you going to make up that $15M? With a damn good, prospect. One of your top 5 to say the least.


Cashman is looking to get younger but he's also looking to field a 5 man rotation. Hughes COULD start the season with the club but that is a horrible idea - especially when he's on of the club's 3 best starters and is looking at 200+ IP in Sept/Oct. The Yankees DO need Pavano now. Igawa is a question mark. Whether Wang can be as effective is unknown. Odds are Pettitte or Mussina spends some time on the DL this season. Who are all these other guys who can take their place? As good as the offense is it won't make up for throwing more Chacons out there.


"The Yankees aren't going to get much from Pavano, it might be wise to keep him longer."

I assume you mean they won't get much FOR him. If so then I agree - which is why he won't be traded soon, unless the cash is minimal, the prospects are very good, or some sufficient combination of the two. And teams just aren't going to do this now, until they're convinced he's reasonably healthy.

"I'm not sure what the reference to the Kazmir trade is. You're saying we should get a team's best prospect and one of the top pitching prospects in baseball (Kazmir) for a pitcher worse than Pavano (Zambrano)?"

Trading a top pitching prospect for a mediocre starter. Pavano is an injury risk and a similar situation might happen if you trade a top prospect for an injury plagued starter. I think it's a bad idea, poor judgement, and unlikely for a team to do it.

"If Pavano is presumed healthy (and as we discussed, he will have to be for a trade to take place), what would he get as a free agent? Presumably pretty close to what he has now. Definitely considerably more than Marquis or Batista. I'd say something like $27M/3 or $34M/4."

He hasn't pitched a full season in two years, he never was dominant, he was always mediocre. Gagne got 5 million for one year because he was the most dominant pitcher in the game at one time. Pavana was never a dominant pitcher and I think he would/should make about 6 million for the next year. But, he's under contract for two years and he's injury plagued, so I think 4.5 million per year for two years is reasonable given his past injury concerns.

"So you want the Yankees to give up $15M. So you're getting a $10M/year pitcher for $2.5M a season. How are you going to make up that $15M? With a damn good, prospect. One of your top 5 to say the least."

I said 12 million. It doesn't matter how much money he signed for, he isn't even worth close to that now. No team is going to trade a top prospect for two years of a mediocre pitcher who hasn't pitched in a year and a half. The only way that trade would be fair if Pavano becomes an innings eater and they sign him to an extension beyond those years. Exactly how much money do you think a mid-level prospect would cost? Manny Delcarmen was basically going to get 45-50 million from the Rockies.

They are not counting on Pavano. They have starting pitching depth that is/close to major league ready and it made Randy Johnson and Pavano expendable. And yes, I meant they wouldn't get much for Pavano. I think faster than I type - or other way around.

I'm willing to debate the value of Pavano as a free agent on a 2 year deal. I think if he goes through the spring without incident and is pitching 6 innings a start, he gets $8-10M a year. That's what I meant by a $10M pitcher (not that he's a $10M pitcher because that's what he signed for, that's just a coincidence). This is in comparison to guys like Marquis, Batista, Meche, and the attractiveness of a 2 year deal as opposed to a 3-5 year deal.

Of course he's a huge injury risk, but keep in mind that many of his injuries have been freak things as well.

Finally, if you think the Rockies were "buying" Delcarmen for $45-50M you've got a really creative way of looking at baseball economics & trading.

His injuries might have been freak things, but many of his teammates don't think they were big enough to keep him out of the rotation. He doesn't pitch like the Pavano of the Marlins when he did - suggesting he caved under New York pressure.

Marquis, Meche, etc., are healthy inning eaters. Pavano hasn't pitched in a year and half. When he was in the spacious Dolphin Stadium, he had one good year. He was mediocre the rest. The same year he had his Cy Young caliber season is the same year Oliver Perez did. Perez is healthy and I doubt he can seek $8-10 million per year.

If he can prove he can get past the 6 inning on a regular basis, then I'm sure he can get $8-10 million. But, he hasn't yet - I have my doubts that he ever will in a Yankee uniform. As of right now, I think he would go for $4.5 million per year range and definitely not anyone's top prospect. Maybe two mid-level at best from a desperate team.

I know they weren't going to just "buy" Delcarmen, but the bigger the prospect the more money the Red Sox were going to receive. Delcarmen was essentially going to get the Red Sox around $45 million dollars.

As much as the Yanks might want to trade Pavano, I don't think they can. While their prospys are promising, they cannot throw the 200ip that they are going to need from them.
Also, with Igawa having trouble, they need to be sure that he is going to throw that many too.
One more thing, both Petit and Mussina are going to miss some starts this year, especially Petit, his last two years have been hard on him as far as injuries go.

Unless they really hate Pavano, they don't have too many SP options and are stuck with him for better or worse. I think Cash learned from the Sox trade os Arroyo last year, that having SP depth is a must at this time of the year because lots of things can happen between now and the All Star break. Usually bad things as far as pitchers go.

Who else (other than the prospys) could they move in to start?

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