Mailbag: Braves CF

Nick from Salt Lake City, Utah writes:

If the Braves lose Andruw Jones this offseason, what is the likelihood that Atlanta picks up a quality major league center fielder? Who could it be and what would be the price?

The chances are very good that the Braves pick up a solid center fielder to fill Andruw's void.  And I'd say it's about 80% that Jones leaves the Braves after this season.

The Braves could try an internal option for center field in 2008, Brandon Jones.  Jones will be 24 at that point.  He's a fine athlete with speed, range, and a good arm.  However, the Braves have been using Jones in left field at Double A this year and probably envision him playing that position in the bigs.

Turning to the crop of free agent center fielders, Ken Rosenthal has repeatedly mentioned Mike Cameron as a possibility for 2008.  Cameron lives outside of Atlanta apparently.  Though he will turn 35 in January, the Braves might need to give three years and $30MM to secure Cameron.  That's not a lot less than Andruw Jones was making annually, but his contract was a huge bargain.

If things get out of hand with the Cameron bidding - and that's a legitimate possibility - the Braves could turn to Eric Byrnes, Aaron Rowand, Milton Bradley, or even Corey Patterson or Kenny Lofton.  They've got options.

It should be noted that Tim Hudson's salary jumps from $6MM in 2007 to $13MM in 2008.  John Smoltz goes from $8MM to $14MM.  Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano will get decent arbitration raises. 

Swapping Jones for Cameron and holding all else equal could still take the Braves' payroll from $87MM this year to $100MM in '08.  Or they could let Bob Wickman go and keep it in the low 90s.   

Comments

[Ripwa]

Did you mean 35?

[Kramerica Industries]

they did make a run at Coco Crisp when he was on the Indians

[RotoAuthority]

Yeah, thanks.

[ArodSucksAtLife]

"they did make a run at Coco Crisp when he was on the Indians"

Come and get him. Lillibridge, for Coco.

[plh903]

I'm surprised that they didn't hang onto Langerhans a little longer. He's not a replacement for Jones obviously, but he carries a decent OBP, good glove and PECOTA forecast. Not a bad guy to have around, but then there's always those pesky 700 ML AB with an 88 OPS+, no matter what the computer says about him.

Brent Lillibridge was just promoted to triple-A, and Boston's still paying part of Renteria's contract, which includes an option for 2009. Plus, Edgar's destroying to ball right now. I bet he gets dealt for a CF replacement.

I'd be surprised if they signed Cameron to a 3/30 deal for his age 35-37 seasons. There's a good chance he'll be a 100 OPS+ guy over the life of the contract and his defense is no longer a plus according to UZR this year. Someone will do something like that, but unless he takes a discount or whatever, I don't see Scheurholz paying market price for him when he's got tradeable spare parts.

[plh903]

I bet Renteria get dealt, that is.

[bravesark]

Are you serious plh903?

First off the reason that the braves didnt keep langerhans is because he only had 2 hits in over 70 ABs. His defense was nothing to write home about so anything they could get for him was a bonus. Im not really sure how he managed to get so much playing time over years because he never seemedmajor league ready.

And why in the world would the braves deal renteria for a centerfielder? Other than the bullpen renteria has been the only constant for the team and he is arguably the best ss in the nl. During the offseason there will be an abundance of above average cf so there is nothing to worry about. Jones is still going to hit his usual .265 which means he will have to him around .300 the rest of the season so we have that to look forward to. With Chippers random visits to the DL, Renteria is the glue that holds the lineup, especially the infield, together.

[gtliles]

I still wouldn't rule out trading Salty for Granderson in the offseason. Considering that Salty for Baldelli was being speculated, and Grandy is developing into twice the player Rocco is, it seems pretty fair.

Curtis is currently hitting .295/.349/.579 (142 OPS+), that SLG is 5th in the AL. His 43 XBH's are 2nd in the AL. He has 13 triples already. The deal makes sense because Detroit has Maybin in the minors, but no options at C beyond Pudge.

[bravesbeast]

First off, plh903 was not at all suggesting we trade renteria. What he was say was that we could afford to trade lillibridge for centerfield help becomes renteria is doing so well. To add to that, Lillibridge is a great option in terms of centerfield. Even though he is great, he is not our best prospect at short. That is Elvis Andrus. Because of that, since we got him in the laroche trade, there has been great speculation that Lillibridge could make a smooth transition to center, and would be a top of the order option. Or, i do agree with plh, that if we could package lillibridge in a deal to get a young centerfielder, it would make great sense.

While i agree with roto that Cameron would cost 30 mill over 3 years, the fact is he just is not worth it, and the Braves usually do not pay too much for players. That is why i sincerely think rowand or byrnes is an option. My gut feeling is to go with byrnes for 2 or 3 years. The reason being is that I think he was age much better than cameron, and he may only cost 6 to 8 per. Plus, he is the best contact guy on the market in terms of a career, as rowand be outperforming his skills so far this year. I just feel byrnes has a better skill set for hitting for a higher average.

We could always see if a centerfielder could come in a trade for salty, but I would imagine we either keep salty, which I think is the best and most likely option, and another thing i would see is salty getting trading for pitching.

The main thing that needs to be remembered is the fact that the braves are not going to overpay to get a centerfielder. While he is going to finish no where near his production at the current moment, willie harris could be a good enough defender to he a bearable 8th place hitter next year. I still consider that a long shot. The next likely option is byrnes on the open market. I could also easily see corey patterson being an option as well, as I think pendleton could do some good work with him. If the free agent market does not work, we could use brandon jones or lillibridge for 2008. I think the braves have plenty of other options they could put into effect without having to overpay to replace andruw in center. And I agree fully roto, Andruw definitely will outprice himself out of Atlanta.

[bravesbeast]

and gtilies, that is becoming more and more enticing, I just do not think that the braves would do that unless we have some productive pitching somewhere, and I am not sure that detroit would do that as long as granderson is playing like he is

[jfish26101]

Lillibrdige played CF in college.

Harris is still an option. If he can keep up what he has been doing (or anything close to it), I imagine JS attempts to resign him. If Salty converts to 1B, Thorman can platoon with Diaz.

Blanco is still an option. If Salty converts to 1B, his production should help make up for the loss of AJ's bat. Lets face it, AJ's bat hasn't really been a factor this year anyhow.

There is always the possibility of moving Francoeur over even though that is probably a last option type of thing in my mind.

There are easily 5 players in the organization that could get this done. I wouldn't mind seeing a cheap FA sign if possible but if it wont work they need to explore internal options as Roto alluded to. Signing Cameron or any of the big name FA's just doesn't make sense for this team in the current financial state.

We still haven't heard a definite answer as whether Liberty will increase spending. If I were the owner, I would have increased the draft payroll and kept the 80 mill cap. I think that is the best way to go. It's a little "Moneyballesque" but if they are going to be cheap about their investment than it makes sense.

[jfish26101]

I bet Renteria get dealt, that is.

Posted by: plh903 | June 18, 2007 at 07:49 AM

I think that may be exactly what he was saying.

[bravesbeast]

My apologies then, I guess I
underestimated the ignorance of yet another poster

[ZachAttack]

I wonder if the Braves could get in on Kosuke Fukadome...

[jsizzle]

When was the last time Schuerholtz signed a big-time free agent to be an everyday player?

It's been long enough that I can't remember who it is/was. I read in an interview somewhere that he is increasingly uncomfortable signing big free agent contracts and that whenever possible he'll try to fix his holes with trades and promotions from within.

So with that said, if the Braves can't resign Andruw, then I don't expect them to make a run at any other free agents CF's either.

Instead, I expect to see Schuerholtz being very active in the trade market if Andruw leaves. For one, the Braves have too many INF's and with Chipper Jones and Edgar Renteria being the offensive backbone of this team, I think Escobar, Salty and Thorman are primed to be moved, though I think JS would prefer to keep J-Rod in a Braves uniform, if possible.

[ejruiz777]

I'm a huge Gregor Blanco fan, but for him to take over CF would mean that we'd need to add power elsewhere.

[was385]

If blanco takes over, you are looking at a power upgrade in left with Brandon Jones and at first with Saltalamacchia.

[bravesbeast]

Another thing, what good would it be for thorman, salty, and escobar to all be traded, you can get good pitching depth with either escobar or salty, and thorman has very little trade value at the moment, it makes absolutely no since at all to trade off all of our best prospects. Salty, while not to the same extent, will become a dependable power source if he is not traded and once andruw leaves. Escobar may be our piece that makes the most sense to trade because the strongest asset in our minor league system is the middle infielders. We could probably get a decent young pitcher for escobar in a package. And Thorman will eventually figure it out, at every other level in the minors, he struggled at first, but then bbegan to figure stuff out and became a premiere hitter. One thing that could help is if he started going to left field again, because when his average was starting to rise at a good level, he began to take things to the opposite field. It just really makes no sense for a contending team to trade away all its young talent. The reason being is that the experience of contending now will only help our young players make us consistient contenders in the future. And btw, since when is Salty reffered to as J-Rod? That makes even less sense than trading away our prospects.

[bravesrule14]

i like the idea of salty for granderson. it would give the Braves a good true leadoff man and they could put Renteria a lil lower down the lineup to give him more RBI chances. i highly doubt that JS gives Cameron 3 yrs and 30m for 35-37 seasons. is there any possibiltiy we send Andruw Jones and Salty to the Tigers for Granderson and maybe sumone like Zach Minor or even Robertson. seems like a stupid idea but juss throwin it out there

[ink-stained scribe]

Bravesrule,

Granderson for Salty would be highway robbery. Granderson's OBP is lower than Kelly Johnson's (and OBP is the stat that really matters for a leadoff guy). Sure, his power numbers are decent, but this is the first season he's shown signs of being an above-average player in all the offensive categories. I'd need a pitcher, too, and a good one.

[kevybo1]

Hey roto could you write a list of all the imfielders and relief pitcers that are gong to be free agents at the end of the year.

[nrmax88]

I hope not to see Byrnesie in a Braves uniform. I hate playing against him he kills the Mets for some reason. Plus he just plays hard all the time and always is making something happen. Not the greatest player but he gets the best out of his talent, and like I said, he has been a Met killer for a couple years now.

[ArodSucksAtLife]

"Hey roto could you write a list of all the imfielders and relief pitcers that are gong to be free agents at the end of the year. "

There is a link to the left, that says 2008 Free Agents under MLBTR Features.

[plh903]

Just because Renteria is having a great first half doesn't mean that he's magically a 140 OPS+ hitter. He's also overrated defensively.

Look, I'm not saying that they'll trade Renteria for a CF right this second, I'm saying that if Lillibridge continues to develop and is ready to go for 2008, you have the choice of selling high on Renteria -- who gets paid a ton and is only under control for two more years after this one -- or trading a prospect -- namely Lillibridge -- for a worse return.

I'm not suggesting that the Braves punt on 2007, but in the offseason, if they have a need that they use a surplus to fill that hole.

I'm sure since you guys both have "Braves" in your sig that your huge hard-on for what Edgar is making it hard for your to see that 6 relatively cheap years of Lillibridge is probably better than two years ($20M) of Renteria. Especially when you could net a young CFer by getting rid of Renteria.

Moving Brent would take away a lot of his positional value. That would be dumb.

Then there's Eyechart as a catcher surplus too.

Between McCann, Salty, Renteria, and Lillibridge you have either a surplus or just the players you want to fill SS, C, 1B and CF. So who knows which way they go with it, but GIVEN THAT, I don't see why they go overpay for a CF.

I don't know how that is so hard.

[Torchy]

Ok, calm down. First, you have to understand that not only does JS hate signing FAs he hates big contracts. A sizeable portion of those who have been retained are those players willing to sign team friendly contracts. Think Chipper, Hudson, Smoltz, and even Andrew. What some of you seem to be forgetting is that AJ has gone out of his way before to be a brave and will likely do it again. That's not to say that the braves want him back at that price (~$15-20m/year). Jones is certainly looking lost at the plate and has been for quite some time. His power numbers are deceptive and will likely inflate his value on the open market.

That being said, one could argue that his recent drought has hurt him for the winter. Even if he picks it up soon he might never put up numbers like he did in '05 and '06 again. Also remember that AJ has roots in the area with his wife being from the area.

As for trades to replace AJ I don't think Satly will be moved unless a quality starter comes back. He's a commodity that the braves might think about keeping just to keep both bats in the lineup. There's been some talk about he and Brian sharing duty @ catcher and 1B to keep both their bats in the lineup. Thorman has disappointed enough to signal that his time in ATL might be coming to a close. Now, for those of you who think he's worth nothing I would like to point to something that only those who have seen him play understand. This dude is scary. He's big and if you as a pitcher make a mistake that ball is going a country mile. Teams have seen this and I bet there are a few that would give up an arm like Pittsburg did for the guy.

In terms of an outfield replacement for AJ internally there just isn't anything solid. The only thing i would make a guess at is that Harris gets a shot there if he resigns and his production stays at a decent level. The boy can fly and that makes all the difference in CF. He's no AJ but he might be serviceable. Diaz certainly could use a spell w/o the platoon to prove himself.

[ZachAttack]

Edgar Renteria will not get traded. The future at SS is not Brent Lillibridge. The future at SS is a 18 (?) year old SS by the name of Elvis Andrus. There is no point in playing Lillibridge for two years at SS until Andrus is ready and then move him to CF. Let him get to know the position. I'd trade Lillibridge way before I trade ER. Renteria has been the only sure thing in this Braves lineup all year.

[Aduncaroo]

Isn't Boston paying a chunk of ERs contract?

Ok, I have a question for the Braves Fans....

What do you think about a trade between the Cubs and Braves:

Marshall and Murton? for Salty

Before everyone tells me how dumb I am...

What if Marshall continues to pitch like he has this year all the way up to the deadline...and the Braves need a good starting pitcher? Someone said in the griffey post that in his 11 career losses, the Cubs have given him a total of 14 runs of support. Think about it...both teams would get what they want there, and Marshall is cheap for a long, long time.

I threw Murton in there because he might help you in left...I don't know. I almost said Marmol...but I don't think the Cubs would do two young pitchers.

[A2000]

What would you think about Pagan instead of Murton in that trade. Kelly Johnson won't be a leadoff man forever even though he is doing a great job now, but what I have seen of Pagan leads me to believe he could play CF for ATL if/when Andruw leaves.

[A2000]

However, the Braves would probably have to throw in another player along with Salty in that trade to get both.

[Aduncaroo]

I think thats your Cubs Bias coming through. Remember that Salty is their Pie...meaning an A prospect that has true potential and is major league ready. I do that deal right now if I am either team....Pie or Murton. Catcher is a very, very valuable position...and I heard they just traded Barrett, so I REALLY hope they are going after Salty.

[Aduncaroo]

NOT pie or Murton...I meant Pagan or Murton.

Looking at it now though...Marshall is so young and cheap for so long...I'm having second thoughts about giving him up. I don't know...I think it could help both teams though. I would LOVE if they would do Guzman and Murton or Pagan...but I don't think they would be up for that.