Olney On Johan Santana

That Dodger proposal is not even enough... I'd say Kemp, Loney, Kershaw and Billingsley up front and then settle for any 3 of those 4...

I think the reason its unlikely is cost. A-Rod wants 30 million, very few teams can afford that. The Yankees are in an even better situation to give it to him because of the Texas money. I think its probably 2-1 that the Yanks give him an extension.

Also if he does opt out I believe Cashman 100%, the Yanks wont be involved at all in the bidding, they are not gonna let Boras use them to make A-Rod more money.

What about Arizona renting Johan for 1 year? Although I'm not sure they have enough young pitching - How about Owings, Petit and Carlos Quentin? I actually don't think thats a fair trade for the Twins; would Arizona offer Upton for 1 year of Johan???

I don't think Santana will be traded and here is why - he can still opt for free agency after a trade. The Twins will ask for the moon (rightly) and only a very few teams will be willing to gut the farm system for Johan, especially as he would otherwise hit the open market at seasons end. All top teams would rather pay for Santana in money than talent, especially if no extension is sorted (making him a rental). Even if they do reach an extension, it'll be the same as if he'd signed through free agency, except you lost your farm system. My prediction - the Twins price is too high, Santana leaves for free and enters a bidding war. Seriously, you think Kemp, Kershaw and Meloan is worth one year of Johan and maybe he'll sign? The Dodgers would be crazy.

I agree with Pudge. There's absolutely no point in anyone trading for Santana. He's going to be a free agent after 2008, and he'd be beyond stupid not to test the market. It's not worth selling a number of future franchise cornerstones just to get a guy for a year, no matter who he is.

Getting back to his ridiculous 17 strikeouts though, here's some interesting stats I found on just how special Sunday's performance was.

http://blogs.msg.com/gameon/2007/08/stats-shmats--3.html

Same could be said for Teixeira but that was done.

"Seriously, you think Kemp, Kershaw and Meloan is worth one year of Johan and maybe he'll sign? The Dodgers would be crazy."

Come on guys, it's freaking Johan Santana! Raise your hand if you've ever seen Kershaw or Meloan EVER get out a major league hitter... Thats what I thought. Who the he!! would turn down a potential rotation of Santana - Penny - Lowe - Billingsley for 2 minor league pitchers and a guy who at best will become Jermaine Dye? (Kemp)

Rockies- Jimenez, Stewart, Hawpe?

ryan howard, carlos carrasco, michael bourn.

move utley to 1st, call up donald or cardenas to play 2nd.

santana-hamels 1-2 punch.

mlm, I think the Twins would have to make that trade. As a Phils fan, I don't see Johan re-signing in that ballpark though with the NY/LA markets likely offering more. Hate to trade Howard for one year of Johan, especially when the pen doesn't seem ready to compete for a WS even with those two

I would offer Buccholz, Crisp, Lowrie and Masterson for Santana. I don't know if that's enough, they may insist on Ellsbury instead of Crisp, but I would love to be able to hang onto him. I would also throw in Craig Hansen (I know, everyone get excited!), and Lars Anderson (power hitting 1B prospect, could stick him at DH in a few years with Morneau at 1B). You don't get the opportunity to get Johan Santana very often, but if we're throwing in all these prospects, an extension would need to be in order.

Troy Patton, Brad Lidge, Adam Everett, and a nice "Thank You" note?

why would the jays do marcum and mcgowan? we wouldn't resign santana and have him for 1 year when those two pitchers are very good for years to come.

a team needs to pay up that both needs pitching and is rich. I don't like the dodgers that much because they need hitting. Who cares if they get one more great pitcher. I think the package you outlined is about right though, along those lines.

I can see Santana in pinstripes. A 300 million contract, and no more phil hughes and tabata.

BTW my last comment was somewhat tongue in cheek. dont take those offers pedantically. its a general point.

These trades are hardly crazy. Santana is the best of the best, that's that.

For the White Sox, the best I can think of is Gio Gonzalez, Joe Crede for third base, and Brian Anderson, plus Masset and Broadway. I don't think it's really a fit though.

Best I see is the D-Backs who could offer Chris Young and maybe Chris Carter? Plus another prospect or two.

Ripwa you must know that these trade talks are about JOHAN SANTANA aka the best pitcher in the majors the last 3 or 4 years.

if santana is put on the block this offseason i think i'm going to flunk out of school b/c i'll be glued to this site until he's traded

do the red sox even need santana? considering what they'd have to give up i'd think they would just stand pat. ditto for the angels.

how bout the mariners with balentein, jones, morrow, and maybe someone else? i'd be really interested if the rockies got involved. idk if they have the parts but adding santana would be a huge boost to their team

Some of these ideas are crazy. My favorite is -"Phils- Helms, Barajas?" Jesus Christ. Is this just a really bad joke?

The only upside to trading two top prospects and a couple fillers is that the new team would have an entire season to work out an extension, instead of having to bid against other teams in the open market.

If I was the Twins, I would look to get a young player locked up with an affordable contract (ie. David Wright) plus a top prospect. Not saying the Mets would move Wright, but that would be the type of return I'd want if I was Terry Ryan. The Twins have too good of a core to stock pile talent, and hope for a return.

Is there precedent for dealing established players in a situation like this? Obviously not precedent for a Johan Santana-type player but for a marquee player in general? I'm wondering if the A's would offer up Joe Blanton, Daric Barton & Huston Street? This is more of a dream to imagine Johan Santana & Danny Haren dominating the AL West in 2008.

Delaware- "I don't think Boston has enough to offer the Twins." I think most teams have enough to offer, but the price tag would just be ridiculous. the twins WOULD trade him for Jed Lowrie, Ellsbury, Lars Anderson, Justin Masterson, Clay Bucholz and Michael Bowden but the sox would never do that.

I think the Cubs can offer Hill, Pie, and Marmol. That's a great bounty for any team. Two of those players have already shown they got what it takes in the big leagues.

The Venenzuelan 1-2 punch of Johan and Zambrano. Wow.

"I think the Cubs can offer Hill, Pie, and Marmol. That's a great bounty for any team. Two of those players have already shown they got what it takes in the big leagues.

The Venenzuelan 1-2 punch of Johan and Zambrano. Wow."

I think that trade seems right too...they couldn't possibly pay him though right?

Even if they couldn't, it's arguably worth it for taking a big one-year shot in the weak NL.

As the Cards proved last year, once you get the the WS, anything can happen

I think the teams that would be most interested in a 1 year rental on Santana are teams who aren't shoe-in for a post season birth but feel they are one piece away from winning a world series. If you are going to give away two or three of your top prospects for one of the best pitchers in the game in his prime you'll be expecting a worst to first situation. So I say teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers, Angels and Mets don't make a play since all of them could easly get new rings with what they've already got.

I'd look for teams like the Blue Jays, Dodgers, Rangers to pursue this trade agressively. Even teams like Tampa Bay, the Marlins, Royals, Pirates and Athletics that can't afford to sign Santana as a free agent but have a fair amount of prospects would make a play for him for one year because they would all become contenders in 2008 with him in the rotation. (Personally I don't think Billy Beane is of the mind set to blow the farm for one chance at the world series but the Pirates, Royals and TB certainly would.)

So thats wat teams would be tossing up their future stars for - a trip to the world series they wouldn't have a shot at otherwise.

I love Santana, and he is amazing, but this is sort of absurd. If i was Colletti, I wouldnt even consider Kemp, Meloan and Kershaw. Some people might say you have to add even more, but no thanks. Like I said Santana is great, but I would not give up my entire farm system for him. I think the Twins would make out like bandits in that trade. Tim how come you say that it is unlikely for Arod to hit the open market? Thought you figured on him opting out. Its like somebody said this winter about Dan Haren, there is no point in trading for him, because for as good as he is, his team knows how good he is too and it is next to impossible to get a guy like that without giving up more talent then he is worth. I feel the same way about Santana to.

" If I were the Twins I'd say include Jose Reyes then we'll talk.."

Some yankee fans are hilarious. This guy says the Mets should have to include Reyes to get Santana in a trade, mere minutes after suggesting that Hughes and Melky get it done. Riiiiiiiiiiiiight.

Buster in his ESPN chat said he thinks it would take three very good prospects plus a young big leaguer to get it done.

It seems that it would take a huge offer from a team with a GM that shares Schuerholz's mindset (prospects are are actually being selectively overvalued in the current marketplace..GMs are too gunshy to give up cheap prospects for proven big leaguers due to the escalating price of FAs, especially pitchers) that wants to make a big push for 2008.

Can't hurt the Twins to listen

Hughes + Caberera is probably worth more than Reyes. Higher projected value according to BP, and a starter with true #1 ace potential (which has already been flashed), which is among the scarcest commodities in baseball. Plus they're cheaper than Reyes, and under the Yankees control longer.

Reyes is great, but he isn't god, Mets fans.

Of course the Twins could be blown away by offers of different kinds, but ideally the package would be an ace-potential starter, a top position prospect, and something else (good semi-established big leaguer, another prospect, etc.).

Kershaw, Kemp, and Meloan seems pretty reasonable, but if I'm the Twins, I want a starter with a little more minor/major league track record (or at least one who has succeeded at higher levels):

Hughes, Chamberlain, Kennedy, Buchholz (who, by the way, BP apparently hates), Lincecum, Gallardo, etc.

If I'm the Yankees, I offer Kennedy, Tabata, and Duncan/Ohlendorf/etc., be happy I made a reasonable offer, and let someone else overpay.

I could see Lincecum + another prospect (but wait, do the Giants have any other prospects?). Or Gallardo + Hart + more.

If that top starter is not involved, then the price in terms of prospects would go up even more. The problem is, if a team has an ML-ready top SP prospect, the incremental gain from him to Santana is not THAT great.

Yo, Hughes hasnt proved anything at the major league level, we know he can be great, but we know that about Meloan, Kemp, and Kershaw so what is really the difference besides Matt Kemp is about 5X better then Melky. You would rather have Melky and Hughes then Kershaw, Meloan and Kemp, ha, I wouldnt. And i certainly would rather have Reyes then Hughes and Melky. I would also rather have J-Rol and Hanley then Hughes and Melky, does that also make me a Marlins/ Phillies homer? I am sure that any fish/phillie fan would tell u they wouldnt trade Hanley or Rollins for Hughes. Plus Reyes is not really having a good year for him.

Maybe you're right. I didn't look at the numbers before I threw those names out there, I just know that if the Twins are going to trade Santana this offseason, and take a step back, they are going to have to be bowled over with an offer. I don't think the Sox would be stupid to offer that sort of package, with Ellsbury going to take over for Crisp anyway, he's as good as gone, why not use him to get Santana? Buccholz, is going to be very good. As good as Santana? I'm going to say no to that. Bowden, I like the promise but we've seen more highly touted prospects flame out (and hasn't exactly dominated AA this season). Masterson is intriguing, but again, what can be expected from him at the MLB level (he's been very good, not great at AA)?

I understand this is a lot to offer, and I don't even know if it is worth it, but to get the best pitcher in baseball before his walk year, you are going to have to put up a huge offer, and this is what I think it would take to get him. Worth it? I don't know, but the possibility of Santana, Beckett and Dice-K certainly sounds good. And yes, I still believe an extension would be necessary if we're including these names.

Here's from a Yankee fan:

I'm not saying Johan's not worth Hughes, etc. But, after all they've gone through blocking trades and protecting Hughes, I can't see them trading him plus others(which Santana is easily worth) for a potential one-year rental of Johan. They're better off waiting out the year for him to hit the free agent market(which, if he likes money at all, he most surely will do) and throwing everything and anything they have at him financially.

You guys do realize how much teams were asking for starting pitching over the trade deadline, right? Now lets consider that Santana is the one of the top pitchers in the majors, not Bronson Arroyo, Jose Contreras, or Mark Buerhle.

Think of the Mark Mulder deal as an absolute baseline deal. They got Danny Haren, Kiko Calero, and Daric Barton. The Dodgers would probably have to do more than Kemp, Kershaw and Meloan because the deal would have to convince the Twins that they would be better off not competing next year in lieu of the players they got in return.

Hill, Pie, and Marmol might be a good start, and if they throw in another decent prospect it might get done. Not that I think any team would really do something like this. Only Atlanta recently has shown any inclination to trade away their prospects for veterans...and they probably don't have enough to get him unless they start offering their major leaguers (Francoeur, McCann, James, etc.)

The team that intrigues me is the Devil Rays, who just might have enough talent to compete next year if they get the deal done without giving up Kazmir. It won't happen, but it would be fun. I see the Dodgers, Angels, Yankees, and Brewers(?) making a push this offseaon but honestly I'd be amazed if anything got done because of the price in prospects that he would command (Olney probably has the bead on things with a major leaguer and 3 good prospects).

but seriously everyone has to agree here, would you ever see a better starting front 3 Santana, Beckett, Matsuzuka, and they could even have schilling back just for the hell of it

darkstar - I agree that it doesn't make sense for the team trading for Santana. But I think that's what Minnesota would want - why not go for a top SP prospect who can immediately replace Santana?

But if we're looking at young hitters, you're probably talking about someone like an Upton (either one). Delmon Young? Gordon (not happening), Jones, Balentin, Clement, Salatamacchia (nope, he has to stay at catcher), LaRoche (probably not quite good enough), Kemp? (K/BB rate still worries me).

Jay Bruce (strikes out a lot, probably a little less proven then the Twins would want).

But now that I think about it, the Reds are interesting. I'd have to think that Votto/Bruce/Bailey gets Santana + maybe even something else. A bullpen arm perhaps, you know how Krivsky loves those guys. Crain if he's healthy?

What about 2 out of Quentin, Young, Gonzalez, + a pitcher?

Cano and Kennedy would probably be enough, but I wouldn't like it for the Yankees.

Back to the Dodgers, Kershaw, LaRoche, and Meloan?

Just thinking out loud..

Kershaw Laroche and anyone is much better than Cano and Kennedy. Kershaw is the best pitchers in the minors including Buccholz and LaRoche could easily out hit Cano next year. Not to mention the fact that his service clock is more than a year behind Cano.

Themfightnwords-
I don't think you'd make a good GM. For the best pitcher in baseball, you think the Twins would accept:
1) Lowrie-a light hitting shortstop no better than Jason Bartlett
2) Ellsbury-a contact hitting centerfielder with no power
3) Masterson-a fair pitching prospect who is being rushed through the minors
4) Buchholtz-A very nice pitcher to a team that isn't desparate for more young pitching
5) Bowden- somewhat of a pitching prospect that is struggling this year

The Twins HAVE pitching. You've offered them 3 more pitchers. The Twins would want position players. A legitimate ss and a 3B. The Red Sox simply do NOT have the prospects to offer that would match up to the Twins. The Dodgers do.

Now that I think more about it, what about Tracy, Jackson, Quentin, and Gonzalez from the Diamondbacks? Third base for the twins, outfield prospects with high ceilings..?

I like LaRoche, but he's hasn't shown the success that Cano has in the majors. I love his eye, but don't forget many of his walks came batting 8th.

It's really a matter of what you want. Cano's value is enhanced by his playing 2B, which the Twins need just about as much as 3B (I don't think Casilla is a real option). Point taken about his arbitration clock. But I think it's pretty close between the 2 of them. For what it's worth, BP projects Cano to be almost 3 times as valuable over the next 5 years. They are not that optimistic about LaRoche as a full-time player.

Kennedy vs. Kershaw? Similar thing. Kershaw has a higher ceiling, but is definitely more raw. Kennedy has college experience and has risen quickly. Perhaps most importantly, his control is considerably better. We hear all the time about the guys with the great arms, but they can never get their walks to a manageable level.

No doubt that Kershaw's ceiling is as high as just about any prospect's, and certainly higher than Kennedy, but he's also a lot riskier. I would say this: Kennedy has a better chance of becoming a very good, #2 starter. Kershaw has a better chance of being a perrenial Cy Young candidate. But overall their expected values are pretty similar.

With Kennedy/Cano, the Twins could still win in 2008. With Kershaw/LaRoche, those chances take a big hit.

A very good #2? What? I have never seen him in person so i'm going off of what Law and Goldstein are saying but i hear his ceiling is a #3 and will probably be a #4.

The last chat he talked about it was Late June and he said #4. I can't go into Laws transcripts.

Umm, without thinking really into it here are the names i got off the top of my head.

Hughes
Buccholz
Joba
Kershaw
Bailey
McGee
Pelfey
Cueto
Davis
Inman
Miller
Miller
Slowey
Elbert
Gonzalez
Morales
Adenhart
Niemann

A top 20 prospect doesn't always mean he is a number 2. There are only 150 starting pitchers in the majors.

sorry, i meant 115/5 for Santana

Keith Law actually commented on Kennedy on Thursday.

"...Kennedy is a very capable 4th starter, average stuff on a good day, fringe-average otherwise, but has great feel and really repeats his delivery."

OK, I'm from Minnesota. I'm a big Twins fan. I know every player that's been on their 40-man roster this season, and almost everybody in AAA. Here's a real Santana trade scenario.

First, Santana would have to waive his no-trade clause to go to the Yankees (chances are he would). Then he would have to get a new contract (I could see 6/120 with an option). Then, the Twins would recieve SP Ian Kennedy (http://yankeeprospects.blogspot.com/2006/12/prospect-profile-ian-kennedy-7.html), 3B Wilson Betemit (he will be expendable once the Yanks lock up A-Rod), and CF Melky Cabrera. Perhaps the Twins would rather trade for Phil Hughes (http://yankeeprospects.blogspot.com/2006/12/age-20-height-65-weight-220-lbs-drafted.html), and if that's the case, the deal probably won't get done unless the Twins add a quality guy like Scott Baker or Kevin Slowey into the mix (the Yankees probably would be OK with that). And then it's done.
You guys really should read the scouting reports on the Pinstripe Potentials blog (they help you know something about the players you talk about). And you know what? Some other team might just put out a better offer because when a team drafts a picther #1 or has the best pitching prospect in baseball, they hope that player turns out to be Johan Santana.

I'm a Braves fan and while i know that the Braves will never get him, i say that we give them Soriano, Lerew,Reyes,Lilbridge,Bobby Cox, and 6 million dollars plus season tickets for the Braves games for the next 4 years. That's what i got and i honestly think the Twins will take that. Anybody got a problem with that? lol

This from Pinstripe Potentials blog on Ian Kennedy:

Fastball: Kennedy throws a 4 seamer around 88-92 mph, although it dipped in velocity during his final year at USC. He is learning a 2 seamer down in Hawaii, which may be to blame for most of his struggles there (more on this later). "But EJ, why did we waste a 1st round pick on a guy who throws 90?". Johnny, it is pretty simple. Kennedy locates his fastball with extreme poise, ala Mike Mussina.

Changeup: Kennedy has a plus changeup, which he uses with ruthless efficiency. The changeup is essential to Kennedy's approach on the mound. He uses it to out smart the batter, with a lot of success. It is one of three pitches that he will often use to finish off a batter.

Slider: Kennedy sports an above average slider, sitting in the mid 80s. He uses it to make his changeup look a little lighter, forcing the hitter to account for harder breaking stuff. He is one of the rare pitchers who can reliably throw their slider for strikes. When it misses, it misses in the dirt, not in the zone.

Curveball: He also sports an above average curveball, which he can again use with pinpoint accuracy. The curveball gives Kennedy a third strikeout pitch, making him incredibly deadly in that department (and it showed in college, which I will get to soon).

Command: As previously mentioned, Kennedy's command is excellent. He is a very smart pitcher who learns how to get each individual batter out. He has a strategic mind not unlike that of Greg Maddux and Mike Mussina. He handles pressure extremely well. In terms of "polish", the Yankees believe that Kennedy is already far ahead of most AA prospects.

Sounds a lot like Johan Santana to me. low 90s fastball (a tick or two below Johan), devasting changeup, good slider, and excellent control and command. And what Kennedy lacks in fastball velocity compared to Santana, he makes up for with his curveball.

Sounds like a top-20 guy to me.

Was Kennedy really just mentioned anywhere near Santana? That has to be the dumbest thing i have ever read. From all experts i can find he is a #3 or #4. Hell, soxprospects.com compares Bowden to Mussina Buccholz to Hamels and Masterson to Lowe. Damn, the Sox could have the best rotation ever. Oh wait, that is a just a websites opinion which is often completely off base.

I think we all understand that Minny doesn't NEED more pitching prospects, but they can still want more. Have you guys ever considered the idea of trading pitching, which by the way is the most sought after asset in baseball today, for position prospects???

What if they get Clay Buccholz, Michael Bowden and Justin Masterson and turn around and trade them for young, impact bats? You don't think the D-Rays would consider trading Crawford, Upton or D. Young for Buccholz? You guys have to look at the whole picture, if they trade Johan, they can continue to wheel and deal to build a deeper team.

I disagree with many of you who say that the Twins will not trade Santana. I think if the right deal comes up between this offseason and next trade deadline... they will absolutely pull the trigger on a deal in place of the draft picks they wi ll receive.

That said -- it would be foolish of any team that could not afford to sign Santana long-term to propose a trade...as I am sure any deal would be contingent upon a signed extension.

Potential suitors -- you have to think the Yankees, Mets, AZ, White Sox, LAA, LA, and Boston.

I strongly believe that the Cubs will not be involved in this since they already have spent so much money recently. The Yankees have a lot of minor league pitching depth and would ONLY trade Melky Cabrera or Robinson Cano in an instance such as this. A trade of Phil Hughes/Cano or Melky, although good on paper, would leave the Yankees without two of their top young players on cheap contracts -- I don't see the Yankees making this deal because they would definitely prefer to dish out the money, without losing the two cheap cogs in their future.

The Angels have to sign Lackey in 2 years, Escobar maybe?, and have Jered Weaver as a solid #2 or #3, with Joe Saunders not far behind. While Santana would be a good fit, I don't know if they would trade Weaver/Saunders and a guy like Howie Kendrick for him. I think they are losing some faith in Brandon Wood though, and his numbers are still strong -- Minnesota a taker on this?

Boston...Bucholz would definitely have to be included, and there is no way Minnesota settles for Crisp -- they take Boston's farm system and run with it.

The Mets I feel are most likely -- they've got some solid pitching and OF prospects on the cusp of ML readiness. They've been waiting to unload Milledge in the right deal for years now...their only hope is that Pelfrey's value rises after he went 0-8 this year or wahtever it was.

Delaware,

I disagree that taking a second and third top-notch pitcher doesn't "match up" with Minnesota. When dealing someone like Santana, the first consideration would not simply be to plug needs, but rather to maximize value. Young starting pitching is the most valuable commodity in baseball, and it would make more sense to gather valuable pieces and look to spin them elsewhere than to limit their options by finding a single team that can throw them bodies position by position.

By taking stud pitching prospects and looking to flip them elsewhere, Minnesota can expand its search for affordable position players to EVERY team's organization, rather than struggling to fulfill its need from the talent pool of just one.

As for Crisp, he's signed for $4.75M in '08, and $5.75M in '09 -- affordable even by Minnesota standards (Hunter makes $12M this year). His '10 option is $8M, with a buyout of only $0.5M The question is whether anyone believes he will maintain the flashes of brilliance he's shown. But Crisp is not "expensive" in any market.

Teixeira is not the most apt comparison. He does not become a free agent until after 2008, like Santana, however, he was traded at the deadline, which gave the Braves the added benefit of a deadline push for the playoffs AND an additional year of his production at 1B.

Santana, if traded, only helps a team over the course of a single season or a half season, whereas Tex's impact will span two.

It would not be out of this world for Minnesota to ASK for Hu, LaRoche, Kemp and Elbert. However, if they were given what they asked for, I would fit Colletti and company for a straitjacket. Any deal of that magnitude would be contingent on an extension, and as mentioned above, unless the team announces its intention to match (or very nearly match) what Santana and his agent view as his peak value, there's no reason for him to lock himself in before testing free agency.

DunkinDonuts- Thank you for looking at the big picture here, and yes, my original offer of all those prospects is WAY too much, but I would still trade Buccholz, Masterson, Lowrie (who is playing well but I just don't see him becoming a star), and Coco. I meant to say I'd add Hansen or Anderson to this deal to get it done, with an extension already agreed upon. If Santana doesn't want to agree to an extension, then this offer goes way down.

This gives Minny a strength in pitching to make other deals, and also fills a need in CF.