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« Walt Jocketty Dismissed | Main | Brewers Hope To Keep Cordero, Linebrink »
Brian Gunn On Walt Jocketty
Brian Gunn is a regular at Baseball Analysts and The Hardball Times, among other places. Recalling his fine "GM In A Box" piece on Walt Jocketty in the THT annual a few years back, I asked him to dispel his wisdom once again on the Cards ex-GM. His piece follows.
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WALT JOCKETTY
By Brian Gunn
So just two days after Terry Ryan steps down as GM of the Twinkies, Walt Jocketty is out as GM of the Cards. Both of them were front-office graybeards – Ryan took the top job in ’94, Jocketty the year after – and both were very successful despite operating in small to mid-size Midwestern markets. But stylistically they were radically different. Ryan was a shepherd – nursing his homegrown flock, even hording it – while Jocketty was a big-game hunter. He generally looked elsewhere for talent, and he landed some of the biggest names around. Here’s a brief look at his legacy, and some thoughts about the organization (or perhaps disorganization) he left behind…
JOCKETTY’S STRENGTHS
Jocketty built arguably the premier National League franchise of this decade. Since 2000, the Cardinals own more regular-seasons wins than any other NL team, won more playoff games, won more league titles, and, of course, won it all in 2006.
How did Jocketty do it? First of all, he was fearless. A master wheeler-dealer, nobody did a better job turning lemons into lemonade, often flipping questionable talent for marquee players.
Consider:
Jocketty landed, via trade, Mark McGwire, Jim Edmonds, Edgar Renteria, Darryl Kile, Scott Rolen, Dennis Eckersley, Todd Stottlemyre, Fernando Vina, Larry Walker, Will Clark, Adam Wainwright, and Woody Williams.
Here are the most notable players he gave up to get them: Eric Ludwick, T.J. Mathews, Kent Bottenfield, Adam Kennedy, Braden Looper, Pablo Ozuna, Manny Aybar, Jose Jimenez, Placido Polanco, Bud Smith, Steve Montgomery, Jay Witasick, Juan Acevedo, Chris Narveson, Jose Leon, one year of J.D. Drew, and the waning days of Ray Lankford’s career.
It’s an astonishing haul. Generally Jocketty would use the same formula: go after some established but underappreciated star, give up a few middling prospects for him, let him soak in the cozy St. Louis fan experience, win ballgames, re-sign the guy to an extension (often with a hometown discount), win more ballgames, then repeat the whole process as one big feedback loop. Jocketty was a master at that (and he was probably the best trading-deadline dealer there ever was – that’s how he got McGwire, Clark, Williams, Rolen, Walker, Chuck Finley, and Fernando Tatis).
Jocketty’s other big strength? Cobbling together a pitching staff on the cheap. It took him a while to get the hang of it – Cards’ hurlers in the ‘90s were usually awful. But Jocketty, along with rehab specialists Tony La Russa and pitching coach Dave Duncan, were able to buy low for arms like Chris Carpenter, Jeff Suppan, and Darryl Kile, and let them succeed in front of those reliable St. Louis infielders. At its best it worked beautifully. For example, in 2005 the Cards led the majors in ERA with a starting rotation that cost, altogether, $17 million – or less than what Roger Clemens alone made that year.
JOCKETTY’S WEAKNESSES
He was never that great at developing talent from within. Oh sure, he had his moments – he drafted and signed both Rick Ankiel and J.D. Drew when other teams wouldn’t touch ‘em for fear of being out-negotiated by Scott Boras. And of course, Jocketty was responsible for Albert Pujols, merely the best player in the league, if not all of baseball. But by and large the Cards’ cupboard ran rather bare during the Jocketty years. Baseball America has recently ranked them near the bottom of all major-league farm systems, and the Cards have been especially weak locating talent overseas. Perhaps that’s the flipside of Jocketty’s wheeling-and-dealing prowess – it gave him a sense that the team didn’t need to develop from within in order to succeed.
Jocketty’s other big weakness was that he tended to construct rather shallow rosters. Often the ballclub would be led by big shots like Pujols, Edmonds, and Rolen, while the margins were raggedy at best. Cards fans no doubt remember some of the team’s biggest playoff games left in the hands of shlubs like Craig Paquette, Garrett Stephenson, or Jason Marquis. To be fair, however, Jocketty improved in this area over the last couple years. The Cards’ bench and bullpen were among the best in the league this past year, and role players were crucial to winning the World Series in 2006.
JOCKETTY’S BEST MOVE
Landing McGwire was a masterstroke that rejuvenated the franchise, but I’d still go with the trade of Bottenfield and Kennedy to the Angels for Jim Edmonds. In 1999 Bottenfield was an 18-game winner while Edmonds was an underperformer clouded by “character issues.” But Jocketty noticed that Bottenfield’s peripherals were weak, Edmonds were strong, and he moved on a deal. Kennedy ended up a dependable starter in Anaheim, but Edmonds ended up the best centerfielder in baseball for a number of years.
JOCKETTY’S WORST MOVE
I can still remember December 18, 2004, when the Cards traded starter Danny Haren, reliever Kiko Calero, and hitting prodigy Daric Barton for Mark Mulder. As others have pointed out (I can’t remember where), Calero for Mulder straight-up would’ve been a poor deal for the Cards, to say nothing of losing Haren and Barton. When I first heard the news I became literally sick to my stomach, and the feeling hasn’t quite gone away.
THE FUTURE
I’m not sure where Jocketty may be headed – I’ve heard Seattle and Cincinnati as rumors, but who knows. As for the Cardinals, Tony La Russa will almost surely follow Jocketty out the door (supposedly TLR was considering leaving town anyway, and the presence of a new GM would only add to the awkwardness).
As an organization, the Cardinals should be much more committed to development and performance analysis. Supposedly Jocketty deeply pissed off his bosses – owner Bill DeWitt and team president Mark Lamping – for failing to develop an amicable working relationship with VP of player development (and stat maven) Jeff Luhnow. Supposedly Luhnow lived in fear of being seen around Busch Stadium, especially with reporters, for fear it would get back to Jocketty. And the Jocketty wing of the organization – the old-school scouting types – generally treated Luhnow, according to one source, “like a war criminal.” That should change with Jocketty’s ouster. Expect the Cards to commit to rebuilding and a renewed emphasis on objective analysis. Whether this occurs under interim GM John Mozeliak, or an outsider like Logan White, Paul DePodesta, or Chris Antonetti, we shall see…
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Great read. Thanks, Tim.
Posted by: ScooterPie | October 04, 2007 at 12:10 AM
Brian is the one to thank...he wrote an outstanding piece for us.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | October 04, 2007 at 12:23 AM
Jocketty sounds like a warped version of John Schuerholz to me, which is still a good thing. I think that Paul DePodesta would be a great hire for the Cards and it would signal the end of the Tony LaRussa era in St. Louis, so that's a plus, too. Maybe DePodesta could lure Girardi away from the Yanks...
Posted by: ejruiz777 | October 04, 2007 at 12:27 AM
Great article. Thanks Brian.
Posted by: bjsguess | October 04, 2007 at 01:20 AM
I know Dave Duncan is signed through 2008 but if LaRussa goes Duncan is gone with him and THAT would be the greatest loss for the Cardinal organization.
Tony LaRussa in NOT a genius as much as he loves to believe he his. Dave Duncan makes him look like a genius by resurecting pitchers from the dead.
Posted by: chicagobubbleblog | October 04, 2007 at 08:55 AM
"Jocketty was a big-game hunter...Jocketty landed, via trade...Todd Stottlemyre..."
Todd Stottlemyre? Big game? :)
Posted by: chicagobubbleblog | October 04, 2007 at 09:16 AM
Dave Duncan is a bit overrated. He's hit and miss with resurrecting pitchers, like most pitching coaches.
Posted by: Teetz | October 04, 2007 at 09:21 AM
I'm not buying the Duncan praise. Any pitching coach could take guys like Wellemeyer, Thompson, Maroth, and company and make them 5+ ERA pitchers.
Posted by: kgbaseball | October 04, 2007 at 10:03 AM
in the years Stottlemyre played for the Cards, he averaged over 13 wins and over 200 IP a season with an overall ERA of 3.77, well below league average. the Cards wouldn't have won the division in '96 without him. he was a very valuable part of the team, picked up in exchange for Allen Battle, Carl Dale, Jay Witasick and Bret Wagner. Big Game.
the Redbirds are going to miss that kind of trade...
great piece, Brian.
Posted by: brummerstealinghome | October 04, 2007 at 10:34 AM
Maybe they could hire Allard Baird?
LOL.
Posted by: firesticks | October 04, 2007 at 10:50 AM
"Dave Duncan is a bit overrated. He's hit and miss with resurrecting pitchers, like most pitching coaches."
He hits WAAAAYYY more often than all the other pitching coaches in the league.
"I'm not buying the Duncan praise. Any pitching coach could take guys like Wellemeyer, Thompson, Maroth, and company and make them 5+ ERA pitchers."
Maroth still isn't 100%. Wellemeyer had a 3.11 ERA with the Cards after posting a 10.34 with KC. Granted Thompson didn't work out but I didn't say Duncan was infallable.
He did get a 3.96 ERA in 11 starts from Pinero off the scrap heap after he posted a 5.03 in Boston and a 5.62 & 6.36 ERA in Seattle the previous two years. Braden Looper was only an adequate middle reliiver during his career and Duncan coaxed a serviable season out of him as a starter. He got a good year out of a bad reliever in Russ Springer. Percival had an .85 WHIP after posting two straight years of 1.2 or higher before an abbreviated retirement. Suppan was at his best under Duncan. Stottlemeyer was at his best under Duncan as brummer points out above.
BTW Brummer, Stottlemeyer was NOT big game when they Cards traded for him. A big game hunter doesn't shoot a lion cub and hopes it grows.
Posted by: chicagobubbleblog | October 04, 2007 at 11:32 AM
not to belabor the point, but Stottlemyre had put together several solid seasons in Toronto, was coming off a 14-7 season in which he finished second to Randy Johnson in Ks and had a reputation as a talented power pitcher hitting his prime. you may not remember, but he was a sought after starting pitcher at the time Jocketty acquired him for next to nothing, which was Gunn's point.
i agree with you on Duncan, however.
Posted by: brummerstealinghome | October 04, 2007 at 12:39 PM
Sidney Ponson sucked, Kip Wells sucked, Anthony Reyes went from promising rookie to suck, Braden Looper's year wasn't servicable...it was bad. He never got Rick Ankiel back on track, couldn't get much out of Mike Timlin who later became one of the best setup men in the AL. Got nothing useful out of Bret Tomko. Jeff Weaver still sucked in the regular season, but had just a stretch of 5 good starts in the postseason.
He's a good pitching coach, but he's not the greatest. He's overrated, just like Don Cooper was after 2005. Pitcher's that do find better luck in St Louis is more directed to the usually elite defense the Cardinals brought over the past 10 years or so. The defense was bad this year and not coincidentally, so were most of his reclamation projects.
Posted by: Teetz | October 04, 2007 at 12:47 PM
"not to belabor the point, but Stottlemyre had put together several solid seasons in Toronto, was coming off a 14-7 season in which he finished second to Randy Johnson in Ks and had a reputation as a talented power pitcher hitting his prime."
W&L records don't mean a damn. Nolan Ryan led the NL in ERA & K's in 1987 and had a 8-16 record. Ben Sheets was third in ERA, second in WHIP and first in K/BB ratio and was 12-14 in 2004. Zambrano had his worst year since becoming a full time starter but posted his highest win total this year.
Todd only had one season with an ERA under 4.22 since beoming a full time starter in 1990 before he becme a Card. And for a guy with a "reputation" as a talented power pitcher he only struck out more than 120 once (205 in 1995) with his highest K/IP ratio being .566K's/IP between the 1990-1994 seasons. So, no he didn't have that rep.
He was consistnetly around a 4.50 ERA before he became a Card and then dropped to consistently around a 3.80 and the differential between the AL & NL isn't .70. It's more like .15.
"Sidney Ponson sucked, Kip Wells sucked, Anthony Reyes went from promising rookie to suck, Braden Looper's year wasn't servicable...it was bad. He never got Rick Ankiel back on track..."
Once again. Duncan IS NOT INFALLABLE (look it up if you don't know what it means) but he is BY FAR the best pitching I've ssen in my 36 years of baseball fandom.
If you expected anything more than what Looper gave you this year then you had unrealistic expectations. The guy was never even that good of a relever.
Ankiel is a head case. Duncan is not a psychotherapist to my knowledge so Ankiel's problems were beyond Duncan's expertise.
Dave Duncan had turned around more pitchers than any three pitching coaches combined.
He got more out of Carpenter than the Jays ever did AFTER arm surgery. Woody Williams was his best under Duncan. He squeezed more than he should have out of a broken down Cal Eldred. He got two good seasons out of Julian Tavarez which is more than any other franchise has before or since. Even though Jason Marquis was never great for the Cards Duncan got more out of him than Mazzone ever did. He turned around Kile after the got him out of Colorado (and before you say it was just a case of Kile getting out of the thin air keep in mind his road ERA's for his two years as a Rockie were 4.24 and 5.89). Chuck Finley in his final season posted a 1.16 WHIP in 14 starts for the Cards after they traded for him in mid season. His lowest WHIP in his previous 16 seasons was 1.267.
Posted by: chicagobubbleblog | October 04, 2007 at 01:57 PM
chicagobubbleblog,
I would love to hear your take on Reyes. Seems to me that he was not allowed to use he best pitch, the 4 seamer because Duncan insisted he went with the 2 seamer. That didn't work out well at all, and Duncan might have ruined Reyes' career.
While I agree that Duncan is a very good pitching coach, he simply isn't as great as you think he is.
I'll take Leo over him...and probably a couple others as well.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | October 04, 2007 at 02:27 PM
"Once again. Duncan IS NOT INFALLABLE (look it up if you don't know what it means) but he is BY FAR the best pitching I've ssen in my 36 years of baseball fandom."
BY FAR?.....That's ridiculous. I realize what infallable means. I was merely proving my point that he's been hit and miss like every pitching coach in baseball. I would say he is above average, but the greatest ever....by far? Get ahold of your life.
I can sit here and name off a ton of pitchers who have pitched bad under one pitching coach and good under another. Most of the time, it's because of the situation....or health of a pitcher, not because a Pitching coach has some new breakthrough philosophy. Throw pitches on the corners...keep the ball low....don't change your arm slot....don't throw across your body....etc. etc.
Posted by: Teetz | October 04, 2007 at 03:18 PM
"I would love to hear your take on Reyes. Seems to me that he was not allowed to use he best pitch, the 4 seamer because Duncan insisted he went with the 2 seamer. That didn't work out well at all, and Duncan might have ruined Reyes' career."
HOW MANY TIMES DO I HAVE TO SAY IT?!?!?! DAVE DUNCAN IS NOT INFALLABLE!!!! NOT EVERY PITCHER HE TOUCHES TURNS TO GOLD!!! But if I needed a coach to turn a pitcher around NO ONE, not even Leo Mazzone, has a longer and better track record. Duncan has done it at three places (Chicago, Oakland & St Louis) with at least four GM's (Hemond, Harrelson, Alderson & Jocketty) giving him garbage to resurrect. Mazzone has done it at one place so far, Atlanta. The jury is still out in Baltimore. Bedard has gotten better, Cabrera has regressed. Gutherie is still a work in progress.
Posted by: chicagobubbleblog | October 04, 2007 at 03:21 PM
Teetz,
Would you please more carefully read my posts more carefully. I NEVER called Duncan the greatest ever. I said, "...he is BY FAR the best pitching I've ssen in my 36 years of baseball fandom." Forever didn'y start 36 years ago.
Maybe you're older than me. Maybe you know about some great pitching coach from the 50's, 60's or early 70's but since I've been following baseball there is none better. Who's better?
"I can sit here and name off a ton of pitchers who have pitched bad under one pitching coach and good under another."
For the fourth time!!! Duncan is not infallable. He doesn't always work "magic" but his "magic" works more than any other pitching coach.
Posted by: chicagobubbleblog | October 04, 2007 at 03:41 PM
Fixing Pinerio might be a bigger statement of how bad the NL Central is and how good the AL East is.
Posted by: Ripwa | October 04, 2007 at 03:42 PM
We get it....he's not infallable. Nobody is saying you said he was, but his list of pitchers he did nothing with, or got worse is also extensive.
Posted by: Teetz | October 04, 2007 at 03:46 PM
so much for not belaboring the point. i certainly never said that Stottlemyre's W-L record made him a good pitcher (but thank you for the enlightening examples where win totals don't always correspond to performance in case i were an idiot). if you think that Stottlemyre wasn't considered a significant starting pitcher after the 1995 season, you're mistaken. The point Gunn made is that Jocketty has demonstrated an ability to acquire names for no-names. Stottlemyre, while not the sole or strongest argument, is evidence of that ability.
Posted by: brummerstealinghome | October 04, 2007 at 04:29 PM
So where does this leave Tony LaRussa? He's too young to get out of the game completely.
Tony, there's a coaching vacancy in Kansas City.
I think he is just what the Royals need with the new direction management is taking...
Posted by: APinChicago | October 04, 2007 at 04:33 PM
Boy it wouldn’t be a Cards topic unless there were a couple Cubs fans telling everyone how they are not very good, never do anything right, are given to much credit for their success or nitpicking over any slightest failure…
Walt has been great for baseball in that city, but the future is probably much brighter without him. Their team is solid enough to compete now with just a little bit of tweaking and a couple additions, and since the GM will probably be the assistant there will more than likely not be too much change in the way things were done with just a more balanced overall approach… Good for them!
BTW, on the topic of Todd Stottlemyre:
*”He was consistnetly around a 4.50 ERA before he became a Card and then dropped to consistently around a 3.80 and the differential between the AL & NL isn't .70. It's more like .15”*
As strange as its sounds, a 4.50 in the modern-day Skydome isnt actually that different from a 3.80 in Stl. If you look at ERA+ (which factors ParkFactor) you see Todd is 90-100 (slightly below average) most years in Tor, but his 1991 and 1994 seasons are two of his best (112 and 114 respectively) while he was in the 110-117 range in StL. So while he did pitch better in the Cards uniform, it wasn’t an improvement to him as much and more just consistency in his ability. What Todd was, at the time of the Cards getting him, is a good pitcher who was hit and miss coming off an average year in Oakland and a couple years of minor injury with the Jays… Much like other that become Cardinals, he didn’t become better he just played to the best of his abilities more consistently ~ and I think that is a prefect definition of what the staff gets out of their players…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | October 04, 2007 at 05:10 PM
Part of the reason that Dave Duncan gets so much credit is that the Cardinals had terrific defenses for much of that time. You can thank blind luck, or MGL for that. I prefer to think that UZR had a lot to do with it.
WRT Reyes: I agree with Duncaroo. It's not a matter of infallibility, all pitching coaches has moe hits than misses. BUT, Duncan is tailored to a specific type of pitcher. A good type of pitcher: A two-seamer, groundball inducing veteran that has lost his way. Is that valuable to be able to turn some of those guys around? Absolutely. Does it mean that Duncan works well with all types of pitchers? Absolutely not.
Duncan is a premier pitching coach, one that we can look at tangible results in many cases. But, like all pitching coaches his results are tainted (overrated) by other variables that are often left out of the narrative.
Posted by: plh903 | October 04, 2007 at 08:13 PM
Wow. Once again, I need an editor. Or maybe I should stop posting when I'm drunk.
Posted by: plh903 | October 04, 2007 at 08:14 PM
Darkstar,
What is a prefect definition?
Posted by: Teetz | October 05, 2007 at 07:31 AM
"... his list of pitchers he did nothing with, or got worse is also extensive."
It's extensive because he's been a ML pitching coach for nearly 30 years. Most pitching coaches don't last that long because they're not as good. The percentage of pitchers he "misses" on is lower than any other pitching coach in the game. Your reasoning of him being overrated because of how many pitchers he's hasn't turned around is akin to saying Pete Rose wasn't that good because he made more outs than anyone in history. Well, he also got more hits too!
Posted by: chicagobubbleblog | October 05, 2007 at 09:25 AM
"Fixing Pinerio might be a bigger statement of how bad the NL Central is and how good the AL East is."
Pinero's worst seasons were his previous two seasons in the AL West (5.62 & 6.36 ERA's). So his problems extended betond being in the AL East for a half a season.
Posted by: chicagobubbleblog | October 05, 2007 at 09:28 AM
"...he didn’t become better he just played to the best of his abilities more consistently..."
Playing to the best of your abilities more consistently IS becoming better. Consistently repeating a good performance is part of being a better pitcher, hitter, surgeon, salesman, windwasher....
Posted by: chicagobubbleblog | October 05, 2007 at 11:26 AM
"...if you think that Stottlemyre wasn't considered a significant starting pitcher after the 1995 season, you're mistaken."
I didn't know one good season made someone a significant starting pitcher. Rich Hill will be glad to know that by your measure he is now a significant starting pitcher.
Posted by: chicagobubbleblog | October 05, 2007 at 11:29 AM
PlH,
Agreed. Like I said and have been saying, I think Duncan is a good pitching coach, certainly top 5ish in baseball right now. I'll still take Leo though...I also agree that he is good for one type of pitcher. Thats all fine as long as he doesn't try and take a completely different type of pitcher and force him to be his type, which is exactly what he did to Reyes. I actually feel bad for the kid at this point. He went from very good prospect to crap and Duncan might have actually ruined his career. Not something I like out of the best pitching coach in the last 35 years....
Posted by: Aduncaroo | October 05, 2007 at 04:26 PM
"Boy it wouldn’t be a Cards topic unless there were a couple Cubs fans telling everyone how they are not very good, never do anything right, are given to much credit for their success or nitpicking over any slightest failure…"
Wouldn't be any topic if it didn't involve you writing novels for posts. It wouldn't be a Cards post without you backing everything they do and saying how they are in great shape no matter how much talent they lack.
Stop knocking everything any Cubs fan has to say...its just old.
Phil,
"Or maybe I should stop posting when I'm drunk."
No way, thats what makes it fun.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | October 05, 2007 at 04:30 PM
Aduncaroo,
If you prefer Leo that's fine by me. He's a good coach but to this point he hasn't exactly worked wonders in Baltimore which makes me wonder if all that great work in Atlanta had more to do with Cox, Schuerholz, Maddux, Galvine & Smoltz than Leo.
As far as Duncan trying to change Reyes. If that's the case then that is a mistake but it hardly tarnishes his stellar track record. Reyes was a very nice prospect, and may still become a good pitcher, but it's not like he was Roger Clemens or Doc Gooden. Let's not get to romantic about how good Anthony Reyes was supposed to be, that's pure speculation.
If Duncan is only in your top 5ish I'd love to see your list. Obviously Leo is #1...
Posted by: chicagobubbleblog | October 05, 2007 at 04:55 PM
It all just depends on what you want out of a pitching coach. If you want someone that works with and develops young guys into starts, Duncan is not your man. If you want someone to take veterans who should be past their prime and get 2 to 3 more good years out of them, Duncan is your guy, as long as they can throw a sinker. Duncan is good, I have said that all along. He just isn't great.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | October 06, 2007 at 10:33 AM
and I agree...the Cards have had stellar defense for years now, making the pitchers and Duncan look better than they should. They didn't have as much of that this year...and you could tell. Rolen helps any pitcher when he plays, Renteria was one of the best when he was here, Eck was solid, AP is solid...and so forth. That makes your pitchers look really good. However, when they start playing the newer guys, and we will see what they do at SS and 2nd next year, and Rolen will probably get hurt, their vulnerabilities start to show. We will so though...
Posted by: Aduncaroo | October 06, 2007 at 10:36 AM
"Duncan is good, I have said that all along. He just isn't great."
and I mean in the history of baseball. He is in the top tier today for sure...but probably 2nd tier historically.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | October 06, 2007 at 10:37 AM