2008 Top 50 Free Agents

That's a good point, but I still think the Cards are looking to add some pop and there aren't many power guys out there.

Pedro Feliz to the Yankees? Wilson Betemit is a better, and cheaper, option than Feliz. Also, what do you think the Brewers are going to do to fill Jenkins' hole? There was talk of Lofton, but you have him going to Minnesota.

Don't know if I buy the Yanks going with Betemit in a full-time role. That seems like talk.

I think the Brewers have enough guys to cover left until LaPorta is ready. Gross is fine.

The Astros said they would not pursue Mike Cameron because of his recent suspension. They have contacted only Torii Hunter and Aaron Rowand as far as CF's go.

I also think the Astros could be a sleeper team for both Carlos Silva and Luis Castillo.

You could look back and count but I'm guessing around 12. And a lot of them are gimmes. It can be a tough exercise.

I hadn't seen that about Cameron, do you have a link? That would pretty much kill that prediction.

oh come on. really? you only expect KC to grab a japanese pitcher and sit idle? really?

granted, he doesn't sound like a bad pitcher to have. but come on. in last year's prediction thread, you didn't have a single signing for KC. We signed Meche, Riske, Dotel and Dayton has shown he is a very active and aggressive GM, in on talks with many players.

but 1 player out of the top 50 to KC and he's never even pitched in the US? KC has a need in LF and 1B, a SP and question marks at SS and C. The team showed improvement this year, blew everyone out of the water with the money given to Meche which shows FA's we WILL spend, and you picked only one player to end up in KC. a Japanese pitcher. hmm wow. really?

I'm up for debating, tell me who KC is going to sign out of these 50 and we will look back after the offseason. It would be foolish for them to spend a lot of money on the holes you mentioned.

Keep in mind that there is going to be many millions spent on players not in my top 50. And money to be spent on veterans acquired via trade. For example, the Nats could get Adam Dunn and spend half that surplus.

There will probably be a few gems...maybe Kuroda is this year's Ted Lilly or something. But yeah, it's gonna be ugly.

Tim, not that I don't appreciate the list. Your listings make for absolutely enjoyable reads, and envisioning the "what if's".

But in a realistic world, KC has almost 20 million coming off the books in contracts. Also, with revenue sharing, we can guess on what that amount will be, but you know its nothing to sneeze at, and Glass WILL boost the payroll just a wee bit.

Out of the 50, I could see perhaps a Lohse signing to jump in the rotation. Riske's wife is from KC, he loves the area and he quickly became a fan favorite. He was beneficial to us out in the pen in helping to bring out Zack Greinke's potential. We have a crop of new rooks, Hochevar, Buckner and Lumsden who may be sitting in the pen and his advice and teachings would be amazing development. I say he gets 3/12.

If the Royals don't make a trade for a LF, I could see them in on Geoff Jenkin's. Emil Brown led our club in RBI's, (pathetic)...so I expect that spot to the the primary focus.

If we don't get Jenkins or a trade, I could see us make a run at Bradley. Just because Dayton tried taking a flier on him. Did we want Bradley or the possible pick if we flipped him? We will never know.

You are right, baseball debating is fun, and not claiming to be any more of a crystal ball reader, promise. Was just surprised your list only had 1 signing for us. My co-worker fans and I are already talking the what-if's of your scenarios and having a blast with it. Thanks for all you do, Tim!

I would be surprised to see the Sox go to 4 years for Lowell. I think they max out at 3, and that they really don't want to even go that long.

i wonder if dayton Moore makes a run at Fukudome. There's a lot of reasons it wouldn't happen, but it would also suit moore's thinking out side of the box style. So I'll go out on a limb here and say kansas city is the winner in the Fukudome sweepstakes.

The fact is that Bradley mashed this year with the Padres. When healthy, he can be a force - don't be too underappreciative of that possibility.

So why would the Braves want Todd Jones? They're bullpen is arguably one of the deepest in baseball with lots of talent. To me, it sounds like another Wickman/Kolb experimentation :?

And how come I'm the only one that thinks Guillen in Cleveland makes sense?

Bob - those all sound reasonable so it will be fun to look back and see. Keep in mind there are Riske types where I didn't rank 'em top 50 but they ended up being deserving.

TrueCubsFan - thanks. You have added a lot to the discussion. If you've got a link stating the Padres are a lock to re-sign Bradley, you should definitely post it here.

Kerry Wood doesn't strike me as one of the 50 best. I just don't trust him for 60+ innings, yet.

For Blanton...probably at least one top shelf guy. Can't see the Braves surrending Yuni, or Schafer, after already depleting the system. I'm sure Beane would like Kelly Johnson as a start. I'm not thrilled with my Jones in ATL match, I will admit.

That the Braves' bullpen is one of the deepest in baseball is verrrrry arguable.

I prefer Torrealba to Lo Duca, but think they're both unimpressive.

Rowand to the Sox prediction based more on what Sox fans might want as opposed to what KW will do IMO. The White Sox will/should only get Rowand if he comes down from his $14 mil a year stance. He's not worth that much. Byrnes is gettting 3/$30 and I see Rowand as more of a 11-13 mil a year type. Dont mind the years ( hes asking 6)but $14 mil a year?? Thats why I dont see him to the Sox happening.

I dont think Rowand really thinks he's worth $14MM. I know Kenny ain't signing people based on what the fans want.

Wait, I did a top 30 FAs list and got 15 of them? Both figures are news to me.

You should know by now, Beckett, that no one can get half right.

How is the Brave's bullpen not deep? When Gonzo comes back, the Braves could have four relievers who have the ability to post era's of 2.00 or lower.

Also, what do you think of my idea of Guillen possibly going to the Indians?

WestCoastBias, I think Colon is the best available starter on the market. More so than Silva who is overrated and I think the Padres should consider him as an option for their #3 or 4 slot in the rotation.

My hatred for Bonds runs as deep as the next Padres fan, but the need for a strong bat in the outfield is too strong to ignore what Barry can do for us. Kevin Towers will ignore this too as he evaluates the pros and cons of a Bonds signing. With last season's acquisitions of Bradley, Barrett & Hillenbrand, the Padres clearly don't mind taking on headcases. Having stand-up guys veterans likes Giles, Maddux & Hoffman in the clubhouse will surely go a long way in killing any bad vibes that Barry brings.

Do the Cards get along OK with Boras? I guess Mozeliak wouldn't have much of a relationship with him.

About the Torii Hunter remarks..

The Rangers park hasn't been called Ameriquest in awhile now.

Well Peter Moylan did surprise me, but I don't think the numbers he put up this year were no fluke either. Despite his side arm delivery, he throws rather hard and has a great breaking ball.

As for Gonzo, TJ surgery seems to be common with a lot of pitchers including Soriano. He came back stronger than I thought and I would expect the same from Gonzo.

Also, look at another stud we got in Manny Acosta. Have you seen him pitch? He has ridiculous movement on all his pitches and I wouldn't be surprised to see him used more in the 8th innings next year.

As for Devine, I think he needs to be packaged in a trade. He has great stuff, but has yet to display it with the Braves.

TIM -- I'll defend you against TrueCubsFan.

Would the Cubs REALLY have a better option in Right than Milton Bradley? Bring him on... he'll be a great value.

Where else are you going to find .800 OPS, .280 AVG, 20 HR, 10 steals and good defense for $4MM?? (That's roughly what you'd get from Fukudome at $10MM). Also, I've yet to have anyone convince me that "chemistry" wins ballgames. I think that if a player does his job well, he'll earn the respect of his teammates, regardless if he acts like an ass sometimes.

(**For example, I'd even let TrueCubsFan play on my slow pitch softball team, as long as he could hit and doesn't drink all the Old Style!**)

If he's given the chance to get 500 at bats, Bradley will be a major steal for only $4 million.

Feliz is older and plays good defense. Why would anyone prefer Mientkiewicz to anyone. Don't get me wrong, I like Betemit and think he's worth a shot.

Ankiel should be suspended

I agree with Brian about the Astros not pursuing Cameron. I haven't seen anything from the organization, though. The owner is (McLane) is very into signing players based on perceived morality, so I'd bet dollars to doughnuts that he'd veto an attempt to sign Cameron. I'm also surprised he's not a Luke Scott advocate, that guy is all about perceived morality.

could there be any chance of the Blue Jays going after Kaz Matsui? either he could play SS for Toronto, or he could play 2B and Aaron Hill could move back to SS. Kaz could be a good leadoff hitter for the Jays, who currently dont anyone decent for leadoff.. C-Zaun/ 1B-Overbay/ 2B-Hill/ 3B-Glaus/ SS-McDonald/ RF- Rios/ CF-Wells/ LF-Stairs(maybe Lind or Johnson)/ DH-Thomas.
IMO the Jays need someone better than McDonald at SS.

IowaCubs, anyone is better than a player that can't play!

What part of Bradley isn't likely to play until at least July do you not understand? You and Tim bring up a good point. IF healthy, Bradley could be a good option in RF for the Cubs. However that is a HUGE if. He has had more than 500 at-bats just once in his career and that was in 2004. That was also the only year he had more than 400 at-bats and played more than 104 games.

This guy gives new meaning to injury-prone and slow healing and now he has the biggest injury of his career. If Bradley has more than 100 ABs in 2008, I'll be amazed. I wouldn't pay Bradley $1M next year if I were the Cubs, becuase on top of all of this, you are putting Bradley in one of the nation's main media markets with nothing to do but have reporters try to get quotes out of him. It would make much more sense for the Cubs to sign Jose Guillen and believe me, they would outbid the Cardinals to get him. I don't understand how Bradley is even in the top 50. Hell Kenny Lofton or Brad Wilkerson would play in RF for the Cubs before Milton Bradley. Just admit that you dropped the ball on this one and move on.

I've suggested this last year I think but if you could find someone to make a program where everyone can guess who will go where.

ie List the top 50 free agents and have a drop box next to it with all the teams. Then have a prize for most correct like a free subscription to rotoautority or something.

It's a great idea but I don't have the technical skills. If anyone wants to design a simple website for this I'm all for it and could try to help.

Great list, Tim--excellent for discussion. It is impossible to predict these things, of course. But you've made some shrewd guesses.

As a Baltimore fan, I hope Uribe doesn't end up here. I think Tejada will get traded, but I think the Orioles will go with Luis Hernandez at short. He'll only cost the minimum, and he's a superb fielder--much, much better than Uribe. I think they'll choose to help the young pitchers with good defense. Hernandez may not hit, and so may not be a long term solution, but for next year, at least, he'd be better than wasting money on someone mediocre who also isn't part of the long term solution.

I think MacPahail is committed to rebuilding, so Uribe doesn't make sense over Hernandez.

There's no way Theo's going to let the REDS beat him in a bidding war for Iwase.

With the lack of quality arms in the pen (other than Okajima and Papelbon), the Red Sox would undoubtedly try to grab the best Japanese lefty closer ever.

Trust me, the Indians have already said they're shopping for a power hitting outfielder and Jose Guillen is the perfect choice.

Bank on this: Mike Cameron to the Twins. Does this not sound like a perfect fit? He's got the skill set that the Twins like (defence, etc.), and they need a CF to replace Hunter, and with the suspension and what not, they'll get a discount.

Oh, Lord. If Guillen is the right fielder for the Cardinals next year I'll eat the laptop I'm typing this on.

Then again, Yorvit OPSed 100 points better on the road in 2006 (with the Rockies), including 79 points of slugging percentage.

To anyone who hasn't tried making a list of estimates on where FA will go...something like 14/50 is not bad at all...Last year I did a top 15 and must have gotten 8 or 9 of 15 right, and that's a much smaller list on the more obvious people and I researched it. Especially with 50, its a lot harder than you think. It's a well reasoned list.

How'd you do last year don't make me look it up.

Actually he did pretty well. Check out a mock draft some time...

But just one of the top 50 going to the second-richest team?
This is what you had last year (only pegging Lugo to Boston) and of course the Red Sox added another
180 million dollars plus beyond that on Drew, Matsuzaka, Piniero, Romero, Okajima...

I doubt that the Sox are going to re-sign Lowell and otherwise sign zero free agents.

1 for 1 with Maddux re-signing with the Padres.

Hey Tim you don't have the Cubs signing Kosuke Fukodome!?! why not?

Hey Tim- nice job. I like your ideas about the Cards signing an OF like Guillen and the Cubs getting Bradley. Those two things wouldn't shock me at all.

2 things that can be banked on are: the White Sox will not pony up the dough to sign Hunter and they will settle for Rowand because he will definitely give the Sox a nice discount.

I'm a little late to the party, but here goes:

Todd Jones doesn't make a whole lot of sense. The Braves will be spending most of their remaining cash on Glavine. Besides, they were 4th in MLB last year in bullpen ERA and won't have Wickman around next year inflating things. (And FWIW, Moylan is for-real. Look for 70+ innings and an ERA around 3.00.)

Also, I agree that a trade for a CF is more likely than a FA signing. I like the idea of getting Crisp for basically peanuts (which is about what he's worth to the Sox and on the open market this year) and eating the salary.

Also, I agree that the Yanks will go out and sign whatever 3B they can get. Feliz is interesting because he and Betemit are very similar players (both will post low BAs and OBAs with high SLG), although Betemit has more upside with the bat and Feliz is a far superior glove guy.

I might crap myself if the Braves sign Todd Jones. Sounds just like Big Bob Wickman...effective for the most part, but not reliable. I agree that the Braves pen is deeper than people are assuming. Not only do they have the 1,2,3 punch of Soriano, Gonzalez, and Moylan, but Joey Devine seems to have finally found the strike zone. The Braves have at least 3 or 4 young guys (Ascanio, Acosta, etc.) who are ready to fill in. Signing Todd Jones would be a waste of money.

It is incredible how strong the market has gotten for Japanese talent. I can't wait to see how these players fare in the majors no matter where they sign.

I am not so sure that it is possible to predict where A-rod will go. It takes an incredible lack of logic to sign him for the $30 mil+ he is asking, and he is asking for 8-12 years, that is one hell of a commitment. I have a feeling that no matter where he signs, it will be a surprise.

That said, no way anybody can get it all right, but an interesting post with lots of good discussion points.

Out of all the players on the free agent list you give the Dodgers Andruw Jones? I've got mixed reactions when it comes to Andruw Jones. Defensively he gives the Dodgers a HUGE boost over Juan Pierre in CF.....Not only that but he would provide the "power" the Dodgers lack. However, his batting average annoys the hell out of me. He is one of the streakiest guys in the game. When he is hot he provides like no other....when he is cold....its like a pitcher hacking at pitches (not much production) Hell I'd want Brad Penny to swing a bat rather than Andruw Jones in one of his cold streaks.

His streakiness is my breaking point. I'm not too fond of a below .200 avg for a little more than half a season.

Forget BA Bear. Think Homerun. Andruw Jones between Matt Kemp and Jeff Kent sounds like a pretty good middle-ofthe-lienup. I still think another bat like Tejada or Miguel Cabrerra could come to LA in a trade. Delwyn Young is tearing it up in International ball right now, and he looked pretty good when he was up. I think he'll make good trade bait along with Andre Ethier.
The Dodgers should re-sign Wolf just because of their uncertainty with Schmidt.

Is it possible that we might beable to get an updated list filtered out with who already signed, and re-evaluated prospective teams?

All in all, if you have time :)