Marlins Shopping Miguel Cabrera

The Marlins would probably want:

From the yAnkeess- Melky, Kennedy, Hughes, or Cano, Melky, Hughes (I know there is a difference between kennedy and Cano, but I would not put it past the marlins

From the Dodgers- Laroche, Kershaw, Kemp (this actually is a very good package in terms of talent and needs being filled, as the marlins would get a 3B to replace cabrera, their CF, and a stud pitching prospect)

From the Angels- Adenhart, Wood, Aybar/Willits, Santana (I think that the angels could not take out adenhart and insert santana, but maybe they would include both of them to get the deal done)

Form the Dbacks- Chris Young, Mark Reynolds/Connor Jackson, Micah Owings, Tony Pena (Justin Upton probably would go in place of chris young, or they may ask for both of them, mark reynolds is the new third baseman, and pena could be the closer of the future)

From the Redsox- Clay Bucholz, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jon Lester/Manny Delcamen
(The redsox probably have two stud prospects to offer just like the dodgers, accept they then offer the closer of the futre or another good young starter, of course the marlins may ask for both)

Hell, im bored at work, figured id take a shot

bravesbeast:

Not bad. How many of those are possible?

Yankees:

I can't see Cashman giving up Hughes unless its for Johan Santana with a 5-6 year extension in hand.

For all the hype around Joba, Hughes is actually better! He is in a class with Lincecum and Gallardo.

Dodgers:

That's actually possible. For some reason they don't like using all the talent in their farm system and keep signing expensive veterans. Colletti is probably desperate now anyway.

Dbacks:

I don't see it. They don't have the money to give MCabs an extension do they? I'm not sure about this one and I can't see Young leaving (too much talent) or Owings (no other pitchers except Webb).

Red Sox:

Delcarmen/Lester are trade-able I'd imagine. Buccholz and Ellsbury? I don't know. I think the fans would riot if they gave up Ellsbury after what he did this winter and Buchholz is a stud.

My guess is that Theo is plenty happy keeping his players and throwing a rotation of Beckett, Matsuzaka, Lester, Buchholz + 1 out there.

I just don't think the Sox should get in on this if it costs them Buchholz and Ellsbury, let alone anyone else.

Option 1:
Cabrera for 2 years/$20m-plus
?? for #3 starter
Crisp for 3 years/$18.5m

Option 2:
Lowell for 4/52
Buchholz for 3/league min, 3/arbitration
Ellsbury for 3/league min, 3/arbitration

Cabrera/Crisp would cost $30.5m for 2008-9, and the Sox are missing a key SP. (not to mention that the Marlins would probably want MORE than Buchholz+Ellsbury.)

Lowell/Ellsbury would cost $27m for 2008-9, and the Sox have a great power pitcher for league min.

Ellsbury's offense over Crisp would make up a lot of what the Sox would lose playing Lowell instead of Cabrera; plus it's slightly cheaper, and the Red Sox finally get that speedy, OBP-strong leadoff man they've been searching for. Not to mention an extra 4 years controlling Buchholz AND Ellsbury. I think that's worth taking a couple of declining years from an aging Lowell in 2010-11.

Well, there was a method to my madness, I think when it comes to cabrera, the marlins are going to ask for too much, but considering how good he is on offense, there really is no limit on what they could ask for cabrera, because of how young and talented the guy is. I maybe underrating how much of liability his defense is, but he still is definitely gonna cost a lot to acquire.
Posted by: bravesbeast | November 05, 2007 at 09:46 AM
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/print?id=3089536&type=blogEntry

BA OBP SLG OPS HR RBI
Rodriguez .308 .363 .551 .916 148 463
Cabrera .313 .388 .542 .930 138 523

You are right he is worth it, here are his and ARod’s numbers through Age 24.

Miggy has him in BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, RBI and the kid plays in the worst hitters park in mlb

Someone will overpay for him specially considering his comparable players list. In 5 years he will be the best hitter in mlb period, hard to argue he isn’t right there now too.

hughes/crisp/masterson

we need to unload crisp, so we would push for that, lester, delcarmen, bucholz and elsbury are unavailable, period. no player is worth losing anyone of those guys.

through in maybe one 50/50 good or bad player like hansen and thats a fair deal, bark all you want at it but thats a fair deal

04Forever, are you talking about Travis Hughes? Is he really that highly regarded?

I was wondering if a Bowden/Masterson/Crisp offer would be enough. Somehow I can't see the Marlins going for it.

metafrantic

bowden is a good pick too, i guess. Bowden did good in september with the sox, i dont think he gave up any runs. He helped us rest Oki and the bullpen.

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Travis%20Hughes&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=407889

there are hughes minor league stats for 07, not to shabby for any pitcher at any level. To answer you question, yes he is held that highly.

we are rich in pitching which everyone wants, catch 22, we dont want to give any way, or atleast to much of it for one guy, i mean, we might not even resign lowell, what the hell is with that. A three player trade is the most the sox will offer, but the marlins will get more talent from use then alot of other ball clubs will

The Marlins are sure to use Buchholz as a starting point in any Sox/Fish trade for Miggy. If the Sox can keep Buchholz/ Lester/ Delcarmen/ Ellsbury out of it, then I don't think I'd have a problem with any package they came up with.

I agree Hughes is a strong option, but he's a reliever, and aren't the Marlins more interested in SP? Although I suppose Masterson is a very strong SP. I'd like to see the Sox keep Bowden, he's only 21 and he's going to be a stud in a couple of years.

Maybe Hughes/Masterson/Crisp would work if the Sox paid for part of Crisp's contract?

I can see why the Red Sox fans would be furious if the team ever traded either Buchholz or Ellsbury for Cabrera.

In Cabrera we have a top 5 hitter today. In Ellsbury we have a hitter that DOESN'T EVEN COME CLOSE to PROJECTING to be a top 5 hitter.

Yeah - that makes a ton of sense.

For all those fans that are touting their rookies so highly I have to ask which young players on another team would you trade for in order to move David Ortiz? Would a package of crappy prospects be enough? Seems like it should be based off what you are offering for Cabrera.

Rookies and minor league guys ARE NOT as valuable as proven players like Cabrera. Cabrera has demonstrated the ability to be consistently elite. Buchholz has a handful of starts under his belt. There is a world of difference between the two.

The marlins are stacked in relief pitching we had one of the best bullpens in the majors last year and it is covered in young rookies and cheap arms. That is the last thing they need.

Honestly that offer is crap compared to an LA offer around Kemp, Kershaw and Laroche (which can easily be assumed to be offered). Or even an offer from the angels or yankees around some of their top prospects.

Crisp has a negative value to the marlins, he is not an elite young player in the mlb. Ellisbury has potential to become that, buchoolz would be the starting point With Ellisbury.

This is not the beckett trade where the marlins wanted to dump mike lowell's contract and required a team to take that to start the talks for beckett ( even then it is a reported every mlb team tried to contact them).

I dont doubt the marlins would contact the sox but they will ask for a rediculously high price to start with. Contact the yanks and do the same (perhaps let them know the red sox are bidding).

But, it should be noted that the marlins do not take bids when they trade players. They go to other teams and tell them what they want.

Like upon the Red sox deal for instance, they told the Red Sox whom they wanted there and gave them exactly the players and told them pretty much take it or leave it. They did that with other teams as well but targetted only a few teams and the players.

It is how beinfest has always worked. It will be interesting to see whom they target this time.

I still believe catcher is their number 1 need and priority with an Ace pitcher coming back and a CF

it should be noted when the dodgers asked about cabrera in the past it was reported (last year) that the marlins told them it starts with russel martin and kemp. I doubt LAD move martin though now.

Rookies and minor league guys ARE NOT as valuable as proven players like Cabrera. Cabrera has demonstrated the ability to be consistently elite. Buchholz has a handful of starts under his belt. There is a world of difference between the two.

Posted by: bjsguess | November 05, 2007 at 10:43 AM

logic when talking about trades? Ban this man :)

Every team does it and every fan base does it. Ask a cardinals fan about anderson or Rasmus and they will be like "no way we trade them for anything" despite projecting to become average players in the mlb just best of a poor system. Ask a marlins fan and they will say "no way we trade volstad" even though I will admit he projects as a number 2-3 instead of an ace. As a yankees fan about Hughes or Red sox for Buchholz and get much the same. Pretty common for folks to feel like that for their team's players honestly.

But yes folks ignore that miguel cabrera is younger then some of the prospects named (laroche for the dodgers for instance), better then he even projects to ever become (his line currently is equal to that of ARod and Hank Aaron), and he is signed for 2 more years before he is a FA.

But again shhh on logic :)

bjsguess said: "I can see why the Red Sox fans would be furious if the team ever traded either Buchholz or Ellsbury for Cabrera.

In Cabrera we have a top 5 hitter today. In Ellsbury we have a hitter that DOESN'T EVEN COME CLOSE to PROJECTING to be a top 5 hitter.

Yeah - that makes a ton of sense."

You're talking about like it would be Buchholz or Ellsbury. But it would probably be both, and more on top of that.

And you're looking at it very short-term, not taking the economics into it. Two years from now, which would you rather have: Cabrera walking away for free agency, or Buchholz AND Ellsbury each still controlled cheaply for 4 more years?

Buchholz projects to be an ace, and they're harder to find than sluggers. And Ellsbury's value isn't as a slugger like Miggy... he's fast and gets on base, he's a leadoff guy, not a #3 or #4 hitter. Different uses, still good value. Yes, Miggy is worth more per year; he'll also be paid a hell of a lot more for his remaining pre-FA two years than Ellsbury would for all six of his pre-FA years. You're dramatically undervaluing top prospects and the value of controlling them long-term for cheap.

Yea good call on the tiger, i did not really think about them being a possiblity, they definitely have the young talent to do it, i just do not know if they would want pay the price for him when they already are an elite team in terms of a win now mode.

Baseballfan79:

I agree that any deal will require at least 2 major league ready, elite prospects. Probably an SP and a CF/C.

I also agree that if Cabrera is available, then he is the biggest prize in the off-season. Only Pujols has a higher value as a hitter IMO.

What I don't agree with is trading away Hughes, Buchholz or Ellsbury.

Cabrera (unless he suddenly becomes disciplined and in shape) looks like a DH in the making.

Ellsbury: not a power hitter, but good AVG hitter, great speed and likely gold glover in CF.

Buchholz: Projected ace.

Hughes: Projected ace.

Joba: Ehh. I'm a Yankee fan and I don't buy the hype. I'll have to see him pitch as a starter. He's a shutdown reliever/closer at worst though.

Assuming that any team that gets Cabrera extends him 6 years for 140 million (~24 per) and he stays in shape, here's the decision:

Boston:

Do you want 6 years of a good lead off hitter and an ace at low salary or 8 years of Cabs at 20 million plus a year?

New York:

Do you want 6 years of an ace and 6 years of a shutdown closer (at worst) or 8 years of Cabs at 20 million plus a year?

Basically that's the decision. I believe in Hughes and Buchholz as #1s, so I wouldn't trade either of them. But that's just me.

Sorry for the long post.

BJsguess exactly. That is like me coming on here and saying that the Mets should trade Phil Humber and Mike Carp for David Ortiz. It is an absolute joke and nobody would take me seriously. Unfortunately, 04forever doesnt seem to understand that is not a good package at all for Cabrera, and any other team with interest in him could offer more in one second.

One team to keep an eye on, in terms of seeming to have the parts that the Marlins would like is Seattle. They could offer Adam Jones and Jeff Clement, the Marlins would probably ask for King Felix, and knowing Bavasi's other work, he may agree, especially if he can get Dontrelle.

Lol nrmax88 I don't think anyone's trading Felix.

He's probably the single most untouchable player in the MLB (maybe Pujols over him... maybe).

I think Bavasi would get fired for mentioning the King and the word "trade" in the same sentence/paragraph/day.

"Of course those assumptions can be taken into account but then you can take into account the marketing value of a top 5 player in mlb and that value alone. When manny is done in 2 years is when miggy starts to get the big time bucks. The red sox wouldnt let him walk they would sign him long term right away like they did beckett so that is a big assumption I would disagree with.

Fact remains say Buchholz becomes a good number 2 in the mlb and ellisbury becomes a 280/350/400 lead off hitter in CF. That still wouldnt be as good as miguel cabrera when be ends up becoming the guy someday to pass arod perhaps."

So it would be better, in the long run, to pay Cabrera $160m-$200m over the next 8 years than it would to pay Buchholz, Ellsbury and, say, Masterson, MAYBE half of that over the next six? Eight years of admittedly excellent hitting is worth twice as much as a combined eighteen years from three great young players, one of whom is an ace-in-the-making?

You're also making some big assumptions. You talk about Miggy like he's a foregone conclusion to match A-Rod's numbers over his age 25-32 years, but won't grant anyone else that confidence. Yes, Miggy has 4 1/2 years of production behind him, and that makes it easy to expect the same production. But long-term production is no guarantee, ever. Look at Jason Giambi.

Every player is based on their expected future production. Right now, Buchholz is expected to be an ace. Ellsbury is expected to be considerably better than what you put above; .290/.380/.450 is more like it, not to mention 40+ steals.

You also said: "The Fish dont need the Sox in this instance, the Sox need the Fish."

Uh, who just won the World Series? Who has the farm system that's the envy of all of baseball? The Sox as they are will be fielding a team as good and possibly better than the 2007 version. They're stacked incredibly deep in the minors. Their payroll is DECREASING by over $60 million over the next two years, giving them a ton of leeway to do whatever they want and still not up the payroll. The ONLY problem the Red Sox have right now is the number of players in their 25-man roster who will be hitting arbitration-eligibility in the next 2-3 years, possibly cutting that $60m in half. The opening at 3B is a pretty small problem for them, especially because they have a 24-year-old 3B in Advanced-A who projects to a ton of power and will probably be ready for 2010.

"There are many teams in mlb, the marlins will make the offers. Not the other way around, that is how they do business. They choose whom they want and make the demand and the other team chooses yes or no. That is how this ownership group has always done it."

That... has absolutely nothing to do with what I posted. I never said that the Marlins wouldn't ask for Buchholz/ Ellsbury/ whoever. I just said that the Red Sox won't do it, and they're smart not to.

Of COURSE the Marlins will ask for as much as they possibly can, and of course they should take the best package they can get. That's just good business. But the Red Sox are arguably the best organization in MLB as assessing the values of players, including minor leaguers, and they wouldn't do that trade.

"As for whose prospects are the envy of everyone? Arizona and LAD are imo way over the red sox..."

Did you even read what I wrote? I didn't say the Sox's individual prospects were the envy of everyone, I said their farm system is. It's churning out ML-ready players at a ridiculous rate. Good coaching and good guidance for young players has given the organization a depth that might be unmatched. It gives the major league team the flexibility to field a playoff team, while leaving guys like Masterson and Bowden in the minors for an extra year to hone their skills. Bowden, Masterson, Jed Lowrie, Craig Hansen... these are guys who would be in the majors on many other teams, but the Sox can let them continue to develop because they already have a generation fo young guys filling out their roster and balancing the veterans.

And yes, the Red Sox have the second-highest payroll in the majors. They're also using it far more efficiently than most teams use their payrolls. And as I said before, with the influx of young guys that their farm system is providing, the payroll is decreasing drastically over the next couple of years. They're going to be competitive for a long time, while simultaneously decreasing their payroll. THAT'S why they're envied.

I hope the yanks are smart enough not to trade hughes or joba. I honestly can say i would rather take my chances with kenedy than trade him for cabrera. Offense hasn't gotten the job done for the yanks so why trade pitching prospects for something you know has failed in the past. When the yanks one in 96,98,99,00 we had only one 30 hr hitter in all of those years. What we did have though was good pitching.

Let me share a little story about my team, the Angels.

In 2004 they had a hot hitting prospect named Dallas McPherson. The guy was the premiere power hitting prospect in baseball. He posted a career OPS of almost 1.000 in his 3 years in the minors. He was coming off a 40HR season between AA and AAA. At age 23 all was going amazingly well. Angels let Glaus go via FA and Dallas stepped into the starting role.

Now, 3 years later Dallas is recovering from back problems. Who knows if he will ever swing a bat again. This "A" prospect was a can't miss guy who may be unemployed shortly at age 27.

I wish he were alone. Brandon Wood (offensive minor league player of the year 2005) has seen his stock plummet. Ervin Santana - has the stuff to be an elite starter - was recently demoted to AAA after 2 solid years. Casey Kotchman has lost luster after battling through mystery illnesses.

The list goes on and on ... The point is even the best prospects will fail. When you pencil out all those "can't miss" prospects and realize how many of them bomb it is staggering. There have been plenty of guys that projected to be way better than Buchholz and Ellsbury who, for whatever reason, never pan out.

I think that a likely scenario is he is traded in June after he shows up to spring training in better shape.

I also think the two sleeper teams are SEA and SF. Both have the players to get it done and both GM's love to make a splash.

I was just teasing M-Cab about his weight since so many people make a big deal out of it. It was just one potential reason for a drop-off in performance.

I do find it pretty funny that you refer to Ellsbury and Buchholz as "very young players" in comparison to Cabrera:

Cabrera: April 18, 1983 - 24yrs 6 1/2 mo.
Ellsbury: Sept. 11, 1983 - 24yrs 2 mo.
Buchholz: Aug. 14, 1984 - 23yrs 3 mo.

Wow. Buchholz is a whole year and 3 months younger than Cabrera. Ellsbury's a whopping 4 1/2 months younger.

If anything, Cabrera's a greater risk for injury simply because he's already endured 4 1/2 seasons of ML play.

And again: "I will take the player who has performed for 4 years at a level comparable to the historic greats in baseball vs a hitter with 116MLB AB's (and who posted a career minor league OPS just north of .800) and a pitcher with 3 major league starts under his belt."

Why is everyone treating this like it would be a straight-up trade? It's not, and it's not just what will happen next year either. With no contract adjustments, Cabrera will be around 2/$20m and then becomes a free agent after 2009; Ellsbury and Buchholz each have 3 years at league minimum, then three years of arbitration. Four years from now, Buchholz/ Ellsbury will each have the time under his belt that Cabrera has now, the Sox will have gotten 8 combined years of production and will still have each of them for 2 more years.

The question has never been "Who's more valuable, 1-for-1"... you have to take into account cost and length of control. I'd take 12 combined years of Buchholz/ Ellsbury over 2 of Cabrera, happily.

And if you want to talk about extending Miggy... he'd be insane to sign a long-term contract before hitting free agency. Assuming he has two more productive years, he'll be looking at A-Rod money when he's a FA at 26. If the Sox are going to shell out that kind of money, why not just sign A-Rod and keep their prospects?

does anyone think that the Indians could be a dark horse for cabrera? he could play left field and is the right handed power bat they need. they have the prospects to get a deal done. miller,lofgren, maybe marte or ben francisco possibly even throw in peralta