Santana Counters Twins' Offer

If Santana IS asking for $25m per year for an extension, then I pray the Red Sox don't even consider him. They have Beckett/Matsuzaka/Lester/Buhholz locked in for less than that TOTAL for the next 3 years.

if hamilton does become available and the mets do trade gomez and milledge can the mets go after him would humber do it????? if not how bout mike carp or mulvey??? what other outfielders are there that the mets could trade for if they had already traded for santana??? DO NOT TRADE JOSE REYES!!!!!!!!!!!!

Olney read it as seven years but I agree, it was five.

Johan belongs in New York.

He has the look. I'm a Mets fan, and even I admit he LOOKS like a Yankee.

He belongs in the bronx.

No way is the Yankees giving up Joba in anything right now, Henry, Hank loves the kid and he's not signing off on any trade involving him.

Hughes, on the other hand, seems to be the guy involved in various deals, I don't think it'll really happen but stranger things have happened, like Angels signing Hunter out of nowhere. *boggle*

heh... thats funny because Hughes is better than Joba...

Scott Thorman for Santana.

Cano + Kennedy = Ellsbury + Buchholz. Kennedy was the minor league pitcher of the year, in his first full professional year. He is a better commodity than Lester. Stop deluding yourself into thinking teams don't value him. He is in fact very valuable.

Hughes has 4 major league ready pitches.

Hughes has a better makeup on the mound. He doesn't get rattled, he's composed, he pitches and adjusts better to batters and situations from what the scouts say..

Joba lights up the radar gun, but he never went through the line-up twice and almost never used anything besides his FB and slider.

All I'm saying is that I prefer Hughes over Joba as a MLB starter.

You probably don't care what I think so check Baseball America:

There were 2, TWO!, minor league players ranked ahead of Hughes coming into this year: Alex Gordon and Delmon Young.

In comparison, Lincecum sits at 11, Gallardo at 16, and Buchholz was 51st!.

That's how good Hughes is. Don't let his injury plagued first season fool you. Check his September stats when started throwing like he's supposed to.

Out of all the Yankees players (including Cano etc), Hughes should be considered untouchable.

Also Andrew:

Please don't say Kennedy is better than Buchholz. Any GM worth his salary would take Buchholz.

The guy has a 95-97 MPH fastball and it might not even be his best pitch.

Kennedy is a good pitcher, but he doesn't project nearly as well as Buchholz.

I'm a Yankee fan and I agree 100% that Hughes should be valued more than Joba. Joba was dominant in the minors(but so was Edwar Ramirez) and dominant as a reliever in the majors, but we've yet to see him start a major league game which is the intent for him. Hughes has shown that he can start and be very effective at the major league level. I'd rather they not trade either, but I think Joba has a higher perceived value right now and if anything, the Yankees should use that to their advantage.

Also, just thought I'd make a light note on Alan Horne. Nomaas.org had a very good article on him in which they discuss how the Yankees should not trade him because he just finished his 24th year(in life, not in baseball) at Double A. It seems like he's behind in development, but in reality he's had TJ and bounced back very well to lead his league in K's and ERA. So, he has a lower perceived value and most teams would view him as a throw in. Because of that, the article suggests, the Yankees would get more value just holding onto him.

I'll concede that you probably have more expertise on the Yankee farm than me, but thats my opinion and I'm sticking to it. The popular buzz around the game is that Joba's the one player the Yankees are keeping hands down, and that they both have a pretty similar image in the eyes of other organizations.

I like Hughes, and think he's a good prospect, but I'm not sold that he's a "can't miss". I'm not sold of that on Joba either, but what he was doing to hitters was absolutely filthy. Triple digit fastballs and nasty breaking balls. The only time I saw him get visibly rattled, was when he was covered in gnats.

I suppose that's possible, but I wouldn't be so sure. Joba's nearly a year older and don't forget he also pitched in College. Hughes went straight from HS to the Pros. If you combine College and the Minors, Joba has more IP (296) than Hughes (275). Really they're not all that different in terms of stages of development, and they're both on an incredibly fast pace for their respective situations.

It may be that Brian Cashman has gotten the sense that other GMs view Hughes as further along, but I don't think there's that big of a difference. Hughes has more pro experience, but pitching high level college against metal bats isn't all that different from the low minors. The biggest adjustment is going from a 7-day to a 5-day rotation schedule.

Henry -

No one's saying Kennedy was better than Buchholz. But the difference between Cano and Ellsbury (and there is a HUGE difference) is roughly equivalent to the difference between Buchholz and Kennedy. And I'm probably being generous towards Boston on that one.

Cano is the second most valuable 2B-man (taking into account age and contractual situation in addition to production) in baseball behind Chase Utley. Kennedy is an elite pitching prospect, better than Pelfrey or Humber, better than Niemann or Adenhart, and better than Jon Lester, who everyone somehow seems to equate with Buchholz, yet no one cries bullshit on that.

Actually he can throw in the high 90's when he really reaches back but your right, he is typically 92-95. Jon Lester actually is far more talented and valuable than Ian Kennedy, and other organizations probably think the same thing.

Actually, Jon Lester had worse minor league numbers and has had pretty bad major league numbers. He is a proven mediocrity so far, while Kennedy has only known success, albeit in one season.

And if you want to use cancer as an excuse for Lester's pretty ugly major league stats, well, then you only have his minor league stats to go off of, and Kennedy has him beat by a mile there.

Only deluded Red Sox fans and uninformed sports writers think Lester is extremely valuable to other clubs. There are dozens more prospects, including Kennedy, that are far more valuable than Jon Lester.

By the way good post Andrew

I add, not because it's not a good deal, but because the Yankees would be giving up three players that would not be reserves on their team, plus a guy who is much more than just a throw-in, but other teams don't see him that way.

Haha wow, Henry, you've really bent over and accepted the Red Sox as your new master, haven't you?

I love how you gloss over Cano. He is MUCH, MUCH more valuable than Ellsbury at this point. Lester has shown nothing to think that he'll be anything more than a #4 in the future.

Taking the absolute high-end of possibilities and the low-end of possibilities for Yankees does not equal good analysis, sorry.

"Best case scenario: Mets land him.

Martinez, Gomez, Pelfrey? I'm not sure how ready Martinez is or how good Pelfrey is."

Think of Fernando Martinez as Jose Tabata. He's the same age and has as much pro experience, except Martinez put up basically the same type of line in an injury plagued (hand I believe) season as the youngest player in the AA Eastern League. Optimistic scouts think he could be a bonafide five tool all-star Center Fielder. Pessimistic ones think he'll be a good power/contact hitting left fielder maybe in the mold of Carlos Lee. He's still a little ways away, probably 2 years at best unless he rakes in AA next season and somehow gets a promotion halfway through the season. Then maybe he'll have a chance to crack a big league roster in 2009.

Pelfrey's a bit of a mystery. He was the Mets first round pick in 2005, but the Mets took a bit of time to sign him (Scott Boras is his agent). He dominated in college and the minors with a good fastball that tops out at 96-97, but more often is thrown 92-93 with excellent sinking action. His lack of a second pitch hurt him in his MLB career so far, but during his strong 2007 finish he began displaying a pretty sharp slider. He still needs something more offspeed to become a good starter. He's tall and projectable, and gets good downward plane and generates a ton of movement on his fastball. He'll have to figure out command and will need at least two more average pitches. He still has top of the rotation potential, but won't get there in 2008, although he could serve as a good back of the rotation option immediately for a team willing to let him learn on the job. He'll probably project as the Mets #5 starter for 2008, assuming he's still around and are willing to move El Duque to the pen should they find a rotation upgrade.

I'm not quite sure why the Twins are so high on Gomez (at least why they like him more than Milledge). He probably needs another season of refinement. He's never hit consistently over a full season, but he also had horrible starts and red hot finishes during his season long stints at A+ and AA. His hitting numbers in the minors stack up fairly against Melky Cabrera, but he's much bigger, and has Jose Reyes type blazing speed (according to Reyes, Gomez is faster). He's also the most advanced defensively of any of the Mets young Outfielders and could be a perennial GG contender. Milledge is more advanced as a hitter and is really ready for an everyday big league job, plus he plays a good CF, but his overall ceiling is probably lower than Gomez's. He's a safer bet to be a solid productive hitter, but Gomez could be a superstar if the hitting tool ever catches up to the others.

The Mets would do the package you suggest. They'd probably do it if it was Milledge instead of Martinez or Gomez as well. They'd probably also do it if it was two lesser but more advanced players instead of Martinez; say Aaron Heilman and Ruben Gotay. They could experiment with Heilman in the rotation, but more likely he'll be the projected replacement for Nathan. And Gotay could be an upgrade with the bat for the Twins at either 2B or 3B, and likely provide adequated defense. The only reason the Mets weren't willing to take the gamble is because having Delgado at 1B means they need someone who's proven they have better range to make up some of the difference at 2B. I don't know much about Morneau's glove, but its probably better than Delgado's.

" He is MUCH, MUCH more valuable than Ellsbury at this point."

That is just flat out 100% not true, but thanks for playing.

"The hypothetical Red Sox offer blows the Yankees' one out of the water."

Which is why that hypothetical won't even be close to the actual offer.

Also I read a generally less favorable report than some others I've read that used Carlos Lee as an example in the same type of way.

As the counter example, I've also read some reports that project him to retain more athleticism than Lee, maybe more like Tori Hunter or Carlos Beltran, to use other big popular names.

Obviously, this is IF he reaches his potential, which isn't exactly likely, but it never is with gauging prospects.

The whole science of projection is based on looking at comparable players, and Carlos Lee is just a specific name I've heard used with Fernando before.

From a BP article in 2006 by Kevin Goldstein on Martinez:

"It's interesting to note that when the updated PECOTA cards come out, his comps will include Jose Reyes and Miguel Cabrera, so the system doesn't know what he'll end up as either, other than really, really good."

And that's being more optimistic than Carlos Lee.

my bad, i knew that Roberts was with Baltimore this past season but for some reason I thought he was a free agent.

I think the fact that Lester has already had significant experience is notable. He's pitched a lot more than Kennedy or Chamberlain, and he had respectable but far from spectacular numbers. Hughes pitched better in his first year, Kennedy and Buchholz pitched extremely well in very very small samplings. My point is that Lester doesn't have as much upside as the others (both teams' pitchers).

I'm looking at this from NYY's point of view, and I think it would make more sense to try to get Bedard right now. Baltimore has a lot of bad contracts you could pick and choose from. This is a proposal I though about a little bit:

BAL gets:
Cano (play 3rd or trade bait)
Cabrera (play center)
Horne (rotation or pen)
Marquez (rotation or pen)
Farnsworth (pen)
--cash (to pay Farnsworth)
--more cash for fluff ($5-10?)

NYY gets:
Bedard (top of rotation)
Mora (bench/1st platoon or bait)
Walker (middle relief)
--pays entirety of each received contract, no subsidies provided by BAL.

This might be tough for NYY to swallow because its a lot of money, but Mora could spot start or you could flip him to somebody (1 year left). Walker would be a nice left-handed addition to the pen at $4MM/yr for 2 more yrs (I think two). Erik Bedard is the Yanks' legit ace.

Jed Lowrie is going to be a very good player on someone's team in the very near future. I'm just sorry its not likely to be in Boston.

Joba is a minority you go apeshit to defend him, Hughes is another honky so he sucks.

gotcha....

Who's your sister Jeter?

You know I really wish I could find one instance in the history of baseball that a pitcher was dominant for 24 innings. Just one.

darkstar i'd like to point something out to you, and perhaps no one ever has, but just because you repeat the same thing over and over again does not make it true.

Posted by: jabanga,
“darkstar i'd like to point something out to you, and perhaps no one ever has, but just because you repeat the same thing over and over again does not make it true.”

…WTF did I post over and over again that wasn’t true? The fact that Joba has next to no Pro experience and has yet to face the same hitters on more than one occasion? Gee, yeah I guess that’s so erroneous huh…

Its beyond me how you believe that 24 ML IP as a RP, 8 AAA IP, 40 AA IP and 40 High-A IP equals he will somehow be great over 170-200 IP and take the world by storm or whatever… But maybe Grits cook faster in Yankee Stadium than any other place in the country…

Oh you know what, NM ~ aren’t you also one of the 2-3 guys telling us that the Yanks will spend less money each year and go with a 3 rookie rotation in 08 while never even entertaining the idea of trading one of them because Cashman told you so a couple months back? The 2010 rotation will also house those 3 same SP and Hughes/Joba/Kennedy will become the next best 1-3 in the history of baseball or whatever… Yeah, I forgot that this public lipservice given by Cashman should be taken as much more evidence than his actions or the rumors flying around regarding the team…

again, darkstar, and repeating this does make it true because it is not a predistion but a fact: i have not predicted success for joba. i have said i watched him pitch last year and he looked extremely good in the innings he pitches. but you have repeated over and over again that just because he has limited innings he will not succeed for 2-3 years, if at all. that is a prediction on your part, but it is not necessarily true, no matter how many times you repeat it.

JBanga,

What? Ok, so your commenting on the fact that I have repeated that he needs time to develop and will have to work into pitching in the majors… Question, how many SP perform in their first or second year to begin with, let alone those nearly straight out of College?

I guess you are technically right because it hasn’t happened yet, but arguing against someone saying things to the extent of “he will almost certainly face a growing-pains period” is infact pretty much “predicting” that he wont face said period and I guess be the opposite… Humm, but your so vague as to not say anything when you are making your lack-of-point post so who knows what ya want…

And just so I can figure out what the hell you brought it up for in the first place ~ when did I “over and over” say it? Here in this thread once ~ and in the other thread regarding the topic a few days ago… So sorry that you are so insecure with someone saying it like 2-3 times ~ I’ll try to remember that the next time I say something which could be construed as questioning your Yankees again… :\

Uhhh, but that’s just not true…

First, I don’t see me “slamming” anyone in this thread for talking about Joba…

Second, the only thread that I remember mentioning him previously was in the “Rivera Agrees to Deal With Yanks“ thread. There I said:

“Joba has 112.1 career professional IP. That’s 112.1 IP split between High-A, AA, AAA and the Majors ~ and that’s it… He may have talent, but to expect him to step into the rotation, go 170-180IP and sustain something resembling success is probably reaching a bit.
Just don’t get your hopes up too much. His real showing is still 2-3 years off, if he’s still in Rotation that long… (Or even still in NY for that matter)”

…That doesn’t seem mocking, or like its bashing him or really like anything you just described. Shoot, it doesn’t even say he will be bad in 08 ~ its pointing out the fact that he hasn’t even pitched 150 INN and to expect 170-180 or more at a level like his BP numbers is “reaching”.

Then in this thread I said:
“…That could be because they figure Hughes has a dramatically higher trade value since he is ML-Ready instead of 2-3 years from it (and really that is what Joba is whether he is in the rotation for 08 or not)”
…Again, doesn’t seem mocking or condescending…

And then in the “MLB Trade Rumors: Yankees Sign Jose Molina” thread I did technically say this, but it wasn’t about him specifically or what youre claiming I keep saying:
“I mean “Hughes, Chamberlin, Kennedy replacing Mussina and Pettite”. Actually, Wang will be getting a raise in the next couple years too as he is going to be ArbEl ~ one of the contracts saved will be probably be replaced with his. Then, not all prospects pan out so we’ll be generous and say 2 of the 3 are still there and we already have a hole after Wang+08FA anyway.”

So, I’m not sure where ya came up with that ~ but its not true at all… In reality I next to never even talk about that Yanks and have only done so lately in a couple threads because of outbidding themselves in the ARod/Rivera/Posada deals. I also almost never say the names Hughes Chamberlain or Kennedy because I know so many Yank fans will jump down your throat after doing so with claims of how they will take the world by storm.

Honestly, you seem to have the wrong guy here with that complaint… I’m sorry you feel as though too many people bash or question Joba or whatever ~ I don’t tough, so not sure what ya want me to say…

Thank you,

And I would just like to add in the fact that its not even like I’m bashing Joba, Hughes or Kennedy ~ I’ve never said a single bad word about any of them! There are hundreds on here who have, but I’m not one of them. I’ve also never “predicted” or said that I was “100% sure” about a thing. The only two things I have said is that there is a dramatic difference between pitching 120 IP between A and the Majors and 170-200 IP for the Yanks, and that a lack of experience in pro-ball generally means you will struggle when forced to face the highest level near instantly.

And again, contrary to your claim, it’s not even like I’m running around bashing or mocking people when I’ve said things to this effect. I mean, if someone argues against the possibility that any of them will struggle and instead insists they will be near Cy-Young contenders instantly, then yeah, posts might get condescending ~ but that’s the extent. On the flip-side, its not like there aren’t an endless amount of Yankee fans running around saying he will be one of the best starters in the AL and willing to jump down your throat if you say anything resembling a less-than-ideal comment about one of the 3…

I really just don’t get what your problem is here… Sometimes I may get frustrated after being dismissed with replies of “I think” posts in the face of logic or reality ~ sometimes that frustration can even show itself in carry-over arguments ~ but if ya want to complain about me then can you please at least come up with something that I have actually done or something I have said that doesn’t make sense… To complain about me expressing the most basic of logic…well, I just don’t understand that…

Like Pinstriped said, if you think my saying he will probably “need time to adjust to the IP/Competition difference when starting/facing pro-hitters twice/etc” is wrong then please, give me evidence to the contrary ~ but otherwise aren’t you kind of the one mocking, bashing and being irrational here?