Johan Santana Rumors

Hmmm, I think this is a bluff by the Yankees, hopefully. I think the Twins should shift talks to Boston for today and start putting a package together so we can get Ellsbury. I just think there's no way the Yankees let the BoSox get Santana, there rotation will be too good while still having a solid lineup.

Yankees - go ahead and try to get Haren - because I doubt that you'll get much farther than Hughes-Cabrera with Billy Bean - so basicall the Yankees would be barking up the same tree with a different coon -

Santana - best pitcher in baseball by far - expensive

Haren - great young pitcher with an extremely cheap salary - meaning the relative cheapness of his contract means his value is higher because he is a CHEAP player salary wise

Good luck Yankees.

The Twins will be waiting for you in July when you are 10 behind the Red Sox again.

so the Yankees are being "tough". Just like they were being "tough" by not negotiating with Arod if he opts out. We all know how long that lasted for .. We all know they cant afford to let Johan go to Boston. Maybe they should try facilitating a 3 way to get Johan to the Dodgers. At least then hes not a Red Sox and not even in the AL.
of course I realize this isnt happening

people are making good points about the possible haren trade.

The difference between Santana and Haren is that Haren is under contract for 3 more years, while Santana is not.... The twins NEED to trade santana and the As can keep haren. I wouldnt be surprised if the price for Haren is higher than santana

@theillien

I would personally help clean his house when you do egg his house.

Theo, trade Ellsbury if it makes sense. Ignore these "do not trade Ellsbury" nonsense.

Also on the house cleaning committee. Haile, do you mind taking the higher floor windows? I have a pretty bad fear of heights.

meant to say that if Twins are wiling to do a Santana for Hughes/Melky/Jacskon deal, meaning Yankees can bag Santana without giving up Cano, how can you turn that down?

Has Brian Cashman lost his mind?

@TheHouseCleaningCommittee: The only way they would get good value in a return is something that would provide for a solid center field...oh, wait...they can't get Hunter anymore.

Crisp plays great defense but his bat hasn't been good enough. Kielty plays well in the field and at the plate however he isn't good enough to be a regular starter. Ellsbury has proven himself to be great with the bat and in the field.

Sure Santana is one of the best starters right now. But I'd rather see the Sox build their young'uns into a longterm dominant force and not shed them for the sake of one player. In order for the value to be there, they would have to acquire position players to fill roles which have already been locked up by the current roster.

@Sunny Reiser

Apparently, the Yankees have decided to take a hard stance in making guys like Horne and Jackson "untouchable".

It is the same hard stance they took when they said they wouldn't negogiate with A-Rod if he opted out (and I don't care if A-Rod came back to them, the point is he opted out and the Yankees said they wouldn't deal with him AT ALL if he did) and the same hard stance they took in not including Phil Hughes in this deal to begin with.

Everyone knows they're going to cave. Forget this Dan Haren nonsense. It'll cost them the same (if not more) to pry him from Billy Beane's iron tight fist.

Make the deal, Brian or Hank or whoever's running the show over there today. No one's buying the "hard stance".

Its one thing to hold up the deal over someone like Hughes, but quite another to hold it up over Horne/Jackson.

But... I'll attempt to defend this anyway.

1. Horne: The Yankees' closest MLB pitcher after the big 3. They need him for depth purposes. Right now they have Wang, Kennedy, Joba, Mussina. The 5th will either be Hughes or Santana. They have no 6th pitcher and I highly doubt they want to try the Clippard/Rasner/Karstens route again. Those 3 are decent pitchers, but they belong in the NL.

2. Jackson: Guess how many offensive starters are under 30? 2. Melky and Cano. The Yankees will lose their entire OF in the next two years provided they don't have a stupid phase and sign Jones or Rowand long term. Jackson is very toolsy. Great range, good arm, developing power, good eye, speed to burn and he was raking in the Hawaiian Winter League. He was so good that he vaulted above Weiters in the HWL prospect ranking. Yankees need him to replace the OF they're to lose.

3. Others:

-Tabata: Younger than Jackson. Faster than Jackson. Maybe better than Jackson.

-Kennedy: Trading him AND Hughes would completely destroy the rotation. You can say what you want about him, but you can be pretty sure he'll be a horse.

-Betances: 18 yrs old with 96+ MPH FB along with improving change and curve. He might be the best pitcher in the Yankee system within the year.

I hope they hold firm.

Why would the yankees raise their deal? Sounds like the sox are NOT offering Ellsbury, and their package isn't as good otherwise. You guys like to tease the yanks for bidding against themselves, but then make fun of them when they don't.

@tolo:

I was prepared to lose the best hitter in the game.

I'm prepared to lose the best pitcher in the game if it compromises the long term future.

I'd go ahead and include Betances/Horne, but Tabata/Jackson/Kennedy have to stay.

@henry14theking

So a team that spends close to 200 million on player salaries is all of a sudden concerned with "the long term future"?

There's a reason why Jackson is one of three offensive stars under 30? Because the Yankees don't care about next year or the year after or the year after. They're all about winning THIS YEAR and worrying about next year when next year comes. That's been George's MO for years and nothing will change under Hank and Hal.

@Not Joe Morgan

So you'd be fine going into the season with a rotation of Wang, Mussina, Hughes, Joba, and Kennedy against a potential Santana/Beckett/Dice-K/Schilling/Wakefield or Lester or Buchholz (whichever of the two stays)? And forget about Haren because he's going to cost you as much (if not more) than Santana, if for no other reason that Billy Beane smelling the Yankees' desperation from miles away.

Tolo: The reason the yanks don't have many young hitters is because they have a surplus of young pitchers instead. It's not as if they have traded away any good young hitters. When is the last time the yanks traded away a good prospect??? They haven't done so in years. The last time they did was in the Arod trade when they gave up Soriano. I know you would like to the think the Yanks are ignorant and don't think of the future but in reality they do. They just have drafted pitchers and not hitters.

@Yanks/Rams:

You're right, our eye to the future is wide-open right now.

The problem hasn't just been trading away the youngsters, it's been the fact that we haven't paid much attention to the draft. That's started to change in the last few years and we're now seeing the fruits of it. We're protecting our draft picks better and approaching the draft more like the Red Sox, enticing players down the chain with signing bonuses. As I understand it, Horne and Joba were both projected to go higher in the draft, but we enticed them with bonuses.

We have focused quite a bit on pitching because it's easily the harder commodity to come by on the market. I'd agree that a little more emphasis on position players might be in order, not just considering the age of some of our core players, but also because a stud 3B or OF could just as easily be the key chip in a trade as a SP.

"It's not as if they have traded away any good young hitters. When is the last time the yanks traded away a good prospect???"

It's suprising to go back and look, they have basically traded away no youngsters over the past few years worth anything. The best player they've given up in the last three years was Dioner Navaro.

"As I understand it, Horne and Joba were both projected to go higher in the draft, but we enticed them with bonuses."

Joba fell cause of injury concerns not bonus demands. Though he did sign over slot, 1 pick after the Red Sox took Kris Johnson.

Boy the Twins really do have the Yanks by the shorties.

If the Yankees really do "pull out" of the negotiations that just makes Santana cheaper for the Sox. If they stay in the talks then the Twins can play them off the Sox until someone blinks.

Really the only way the Yankees win is if the Sox end up drastically overpaying for Santana.

@tmar

I doubt Santana comes cheaper for the Sox than what they're offering now. Less than Crisp + Lester + Lowrie? Which the Twins seem like they're unwilling to take anyway? Anything less would be easily comparable to the draft picks they'd get if he goes free agent.

And if he goes free agent, he's a Yankee. Even the most ardent Red Sox fanatic can't dispute that. Giambi money + Pavano money + Mussina money == Santana money and then some.

Kosh,

So…
Twins want:
Hughes + Melky + Horne/Jackson
Yanks say:
“ok cool, we’ll give you Kennedy + Melky + Horne/Jackson”
Then come back and say:
“Ok fine, we will give you Hughes + Melky, but not Horne or Jackson”

see… that’s not “upping” ~ that’s just giving options or changing their offer. For all we know, maybe the Twins would rather just have Kennedy + Melky + Horne + Jackson instead of including Hughes only to lose Horne/Jackson as options.

Quantity when you are talking prospects is better than the quality of 1. If ya only get Hughes and he blows his arm out in his first game, you lost everything. Taking 2-3 slightly lower rated but still high-end prospects instead leaves you 3 chances to get return value. If we were talking 3 scrubs, yeah you are right ~ but I don’t think that’s the deal here…

The Yanks didn’t really do anything other than go back on their word when they included Hughes and took out Horne/Jackson. Just because they believe they made a concession doesn’t mean Minnesota feels that way and the removal of other parts means they infact are short-changing the Twins even if Hughes is better…

@darkstar

Don't minimize the gap between Hughes and Kennedy, from a PR standpoint if not from a star-potential standpoint. PR is a very important factor for the Twins here considering the player they're trading. They have to try to get back quality and remain competitive, but they also have to do what they can to ensure that the fanbase doesn't lose what faith they have left in the franchise. There's no way the Twins can value the Kennedy + prospects package over Hughes; their fans would be outraged if Kennedy was the best their FO could do to replace Santana. Hughes, as a top prospect with big recognition, gives the Yankees a far improved position.

Why doesn't MN ask for Wilson Betemit as the 3rd player from the Yanks.

Hughes/Melky/Betemit for Santana (1 yr) would be a pretty good haul. Also, NY would probably part with Betemit now that Arod is going to resign.

Wilson Betimet is nothing more than a stopgap. The Twins would rather have another prospect that they can trade again, or just wait to find a better 3bman than Betimet.

So Ellsbury is on the table, as I anticipated. I hope some of the Sox fans who were insisting that Theo wouldn't give in will now suggest that Lucchino is going over Theo's head. :)

With Lester out, the package doesn't include a significant pitcher, which is a major problem for a team trading an ace. Good enough maybe to get the Yankees to cough up Jackson/Horne. If the Twins expect the addition of Kennedy to trump this, they're asking too much.

"Don't minimize the gap between Hughes and Kennedy, from a PR standpoint if not from a star-potential standpoint."

...So if Hughes struggles in 08 while Kennedy shines will you be saying the opposite in 2009?

If you are a smart GM you rarely take the "name" over the "longterm value" ~ the "longterm value" of Hughes alone is not really better than that of Kennedy + another top prospect; I dont care how good Hughes might be...

jehu: I think you're wrong about the Sox final offer -- I figure it would be something more like Ellsbury, Lowrie, and Masterson/Bowden. The Yankees one looks right. Given the givens on that, I'd take the Sox deal, for a simple reason -- the Twins are fantastic at developing young pitching talent, but they're much more hit or miss on developing position players.

Ergo, for the Twins, star-quality position player + prospect-y pitcher > star-quality pitcher + prospect-y position player.

We can *make* the pitching prospect good, or at least servicable. We can't do that for a position player.

This whole thing is just stupid now. I'm just gonna wait and see what happens.

Heh, I have to agree with you there Gogo. The Twins should just make a move already.

have to admit bill smith has worked the yanks and bosox until he got what he wants

A team's going to trade Santana and Garza, 2/5 of their pitching rotation including their Hall of Fame ace, and the best pitcher they get back is Michael Bowden? A guy who hasn't even pitched in the majors yet?

If I were a Twins fan who hasn't walked away from the franchise already, that would clinch it for me. I wouldn't care much about what kind of arms they have waiting in the minors.

Cano for Lincecum. HAHAHA Yeah that'll happen.

Man, as a Yankee fan, i was hoping it woudnt come to this.
I thought we were done shipping all of our best home grown young talent just to pay a pitcher 150$ million just so all other baseball fans can talk trash about how we get whoever we want cause of our money. I'd like to see them go in a different direction. Maybe Go for Haren, I dont think the Yanks would be forced to give up Hughes for Haren. Not to mention, Haren is way way way way cheaper than Santana, and is Younger.

Maybe you can get Haren for Ian Kennedy & some other prospects instead of Hughes.

And not to mention, Haren had a better ERA than Santana.

patsfan:

I thought the Sox would always offer one of their big 3: Lester, Ellsbury, Buchholz in that order.

The Yanks switched out Kennedy for Hughes.

The Sox switched out Lester for Ellsbury.

That's a good point, Ralphie. Also as a Yankees fan, I would try and go after Haren. However, I'd be willing to give up Hughes. I don't know what it is about Kennedy, but I think he also has a bright future. I would give up Hughes, Melky and another prospect for Haren, no question. Then you'd go into 2008 with Haren, Wang, Joba, Kennedy and either Pettitte or Mussina. That's pretty formidable if you ask me.

If it's the real deal -- Ellsbury/Lowrie/Bowden or Masterson -- then I think the Twins have to take it. We plug so many holes in one fell swoop. And while the Yanks might be able to actually match the offer in gross talent, I don't think they can match the specific holes.

We simply need a top-tier center fielder more than we need a top-tier pitcher.

STOP comparing Dan Haren to Johan Santana. Haren has had one good HALF season in his entire career..he stunk bad in the 2nd half last year. The A's and Billy Beane would be in the driver seat in any deal, knowing the yankees need to make a deal, so they would rob the yankees big time.

Johan has been the best pitcher in the league for the last 4/5 years. he has 2 cy youngs, has been 1st or 2nd in strikeouts the past 3 or 4 years, and has never been hurt. He is a legitimate ace. Who knows how Dan Haren would even handle the immense pressure of playing in New York?

I'm a devoted Twins fan rooting for them to trade Johan. Obviously the Red Sox offer is more appealing now, with ellsbury and lowrie, with 2 pitching prospects. Remember, Francisco Liriano will be back next season, hopefully at 100%, not to mention what pitching they could get in a trade for Joe Nathan. So the Twins need offense more than pitching at this point, and ellsbury is a legitimate talent in CF. Let's face it, Melky Cabrera is highly overrated by the New York media, and just getting Phil Hughes would not be enough. WE NEED HITTING!

Its funny to hear Yanks fan talk about wanting a player because he has a friendly contract. Like it matters. Also, i bet Boras and Andruw keeping up with the headlines hoping Ellsbury is dealt. Crisp will not be the starting CF in Boston next season regardless. He sucks plain and simple. I don't know, as great Jones and Santana are if im a Sox fan i'd feel a bit letdown that they cant keep the homegrown guys.

I dont know if i like the idea of ellsbury being dealt but it makes sense. Beckett/Santana sounds good and we all know that pitching wins championships. There a couple of opitions to fill the hole of centerfeild like say Andruw Jones or just go with crisp. crisp is not that bad GREAT glove and can steal bases just needs to hit a little more. Ellsbury is a premeir CF/Rookie of the year candidate but again you get santana which adds to the already best rotation in the league and then you can deal for a catcher to replace veritek in the years to came with crisp. They should take Lowrie out of the deal and just offer up Ellsbury/ bowden and maybe lester or most likely masterson. Lugo sucks and lowrie is just about ready to play in the majors. Ellsbury is very valuable that can be used to improve a couple areas of the sox team. It makes sense to add Ellsbury to the deal. Ellsbury added easily makes the sox offer better. But yet again its all speculation

I just don't think the Twins can give up Santana without getting a MLB ready pitcher in return. Elsbury with his great potential, still needs Lester or Buchholz; Like the Twins want Hughes/Cabrera... They need someone that they KNOW can pitch if the seasoned started tomorrow.

One way or another, this is all going to play out this week at the Winter meetings.

Here's how it'll probably all go down:

1)With Ellsbury now in the mix, the Yankees relent on both their "hard stance" and their "deadline" talk and add Horne to the package of Hughes and Cabrera.

2)Being this close to nabbing the best pitcher on the planet, the Red Sox relent and throw an Ellsbury/Lester/Lowrie/Bowden package at the Twins.

3)Because Jackson is apparently the second coming of Griffey Jr (having played great ball in Single A), the Yankees take another "hard stance" and threaten to set yet another "deadline" if their offer of Hughes, Cabrera and Horne isn't accepted.

4)Bill Smith and Theo Epstein share a laugh about "hard stances", "deadlines", and "untouchable AA prospects" while Johan's people work out a new 6 year contract with the Boston Red Sox.

5)Taking a "We'll Show You Guys" attitude, The Yankees begin trade talks with Billy Beane about Dan Haren, offering Kennedy, Cabrera, and a low level prospect who is not one of their "untouchables" liss, a list that has now grown to 76 players.

6)Knowing he has New York by their "yankees", Billy Beane counters with Hughes, Horne, and Jackson since Cabrera isn't overrated anywhere outside of the Bronx. This time, it's Billy Beane who sets the "deadline".

7)The Yankees relent from their "hard stance" and send Hughes, Horne, and Jackson to Oakland for Dab Haren.

8)The Boston Red Sox win their second World Series in as many seasons behind the dominating performances of their 1-2 punch of Santana and Beckett.

9)Upon realzing that he no longers pitches in the most pitcher friendly park in baseball, Haren's ERA balloons into the low 5's.

But that's just my opinion.

tolo316 -- if Boston even whispers a Ellsbury/Lester/Lowrie/Bowden package in our direction, I'll call it a day.

Then I'll throw myself on the floor and writhe in overwhelming happiness.

One more thing,
why isn't anyone talking about how much the Red Sox are turning into the "Yankees"?
They Have the second highest, and Santana is still going to want $150 million. That should bump up there payroll.
They should get the same criticism as the Yankees.

@RalphieNY

I agree with you 100%. If the Yankees are known as "The Evil Enpire", the Sox should be known as "The Evil Empire Lite" or "The Evil Empire Part Deux" or something across those lines.

@RalphieNY

The Sox spend a lot, but they don't do so foolishly like the Yankees. The Sox didn't give Damon a long term offer, but the Yanks did and look what that got them, a broken down, aging ballplayer. Same can be said for Giambi, Matsui, and Mussina.

Boston may have the second highest payroll, but they don't throw money around without doing a great deal of research. They're smart about it. I think the fact the Yankees having the highest payroll in baseball and not coming close to sniffing the World Series also has a lot to do with it, while the Sox have won it twice in the last four years.

@joyofsox

Renteria? Lugo? Drew? Clement?

The Red Sox never make bad signings?

I won't even throw in the highest paid player in Manny, who I actually think is worth the money you're paying him, even though your FO has been desperately trying to get rid of him.

I agree that the Yankees have a recent history of very foolish spending ... but, seriously, you need to take the blinders off there.

@Kosh

Unless it's a 3-way deal involving Santana, your proposition for trading the extra arms Twins get from the Yanks for positional players has one flaw. That is Twins will not have the same leverage after losing Santana and would end up paying more talent for filling these holes. That is before considering Sox might add Lester back to their package.

Oh. I think Liriano would be the ace if he is 100%, not Hughes.

The problem with the Yankees offer is risk. Hughes is talented, but what if he gets hurt? Then the Twins basically get nothing for a Hall of Fame pitcher. That's a scary thought. The Red Sox are offering 2 players who immediately will start and are less likely to be busts.

I don't understand the logic for the Sox to do a Ellsbury/Lowrie/Masterson/Bowden trade. Then they would have 7 potential guys for their rotation:

Beckett
Santana
Matsuzaka
Schilling
Buchholz
Lester
Wakefield

Toss in Tavarez and they've got 8 guys. But their lineup, while solid, is essentially the same as the 2007 one.

The Sox' strength is their depth of ML-ready pitching. Trading for MORE, even if it's Santana, seems absurd, unless they have some other trades lined up to move Tavarez and either Buchholz or Lester.

I just feel like the Red Sox offer fills more holes and makes more improvements upon the Twins as a whole. Hughes will probably end up being a legit ace, but otherwise you're getting a mediocre centerfielder and a mid level prospect. Or you can have a fantastic leadoff hitting CF, a good starting SS, and 2 good pitching prospects