Mariners Close To Bedard Deal?

Tim, isn't Churchill saying a 5 for 1 too in his latest post there?

if McFail ever trade berdar or robert who cares tire of hearing the samething

The latest update is not the main post. It's in the righthand sidebar on the page.

My favorite part about this is the section directly underneath that update on Churchill's page that reads "Countdown until Bedard and Catchers report." Seems he is either extrememly optimistic or has reliable information.

Actually the Orioles won't lose leverage this soon. Bedard is under contract through 2009, so he isn't an impending free agent. He also doesn't have a no trade clause. Those two aspects of this deal mean that Baltimore has way more freedom in moving him. With Santana, there were only a couple of teams that could acquire him because he was gonna require a massive contract. While Bedard will also command a big contract, it'll be along the lines of Roy Oswalt, not a record breaking deal. The Orioles have far more leverage in this than the Twins had.

And I don't think this deal is as crazy as everyone thinks. Even though I don't think its a good deal for Seattle, I also don't think its a god awful deal either. Even though Adam Jones has star potential, he hasn't performed at the MLB level yet so he's not a guarentee. Sherill and Tillman are both good pitchers, but neither one appears to be anything genuinely special. Unless one of the extra prospects turns out to be another top prospect, like Triunfel, then I think this deal could end up going fine for Seattle. The only serious issue is that Bedard isn't really a guarentee either, as his health is a concern.

"Next up Roberts for Pie and Gallagher?"
Uhh no I doubt it. The Cubs will not give up Pie in a deal for Roberts. Pie is nearly untouchable and I can't see them moving him unless its for a Bedard/Roberts package. They may be able to include Tyler Colvin, whom packaged with Gallagher would likely be enough. Not sure if Hendry wants to do that but it may be necessary to keep up with the Mets now.

Nice thanks scribbletone

Though i wouldn't mind sending Colvin as there is not slot for him in the froseeable future(assuming Pie sticks)Could a deal in which Gallagher is subtituted with Gallagher get this done? If we tack on another prospect?

I think McPahil will skip Pie/colvin since he got adams/scott this offseason and have redman/roberson as #4/5 outfielders. With roberts he'll probably go after more pictching Gallagher/????. I think whoever we get from the cubs will be worthwhile, for mcphail knows those players better than any in the league.

I just looked and the Baltimore 40 man roster was full. Even allowing for cuts made to make a 5-for-1 deal on the heels of the Tejeda swap, they're gonna have a much harder time making a subsequent 3-for-1 Roberts trade.

Can someone explain why the Orioles would not want the Cubs prospect 3b Vitters ?

The Cubs don't need him, and the Orioles will, once Melvin Mora gets lost that is.

Is he no good ? Wouldn't he be better for the O's then Pie ? Gallagher looks pretty mediocre, so basically fine, but why not Vitters instead of Pie ????

just saw a line that O's are trading Bedard to Mets for f.Martinez / Pelfry / O. Perez...

Only joking...

baseballz- the Cubs WON'T trade Vitters because the guy is a potential stud. He is by far the best player left in their farm system. The Cubs could still move him as a player to be named later but there is no way in hell they do. I see him as one of the four untouchable young guys they have along with Pie, Hill and Marmol. Josh Vitters will not be moved by the Cubs unless its for a genuine star player, which Roberts is definately not.

I'm sorry, it said up to 100 mill, or that is what was suggested.

advantgarde... funny, because at mets.com ad metsblog there are people conjuring up wyas the mets can get bedard. Cant these fuckers just be happy for like a day lol? Well thats ny fans for u

IF the Orioles are trying to sign Bedard to a long term deal it just means that the Cincinnati Reds are still in contention. Otherwise, the deal with Seattle would be going through.

The Reds DON'T want to trade the farm for Bedard and then have him bolt for Free Agency. So, if Bedard IS signed long term watch for Krivsky to make ANOTHER stupid move (as far as pitching goes) and trade everybody for him. Thus, the Reds will be a losing club for another 10 years.

Why? Because "toothpick" Baker will over-use and abuse him like he has other Pitchers and then the REds will have NOTHING left to trade for another Pitcher. Also, the REds will STILL have Dunn and KGJ and the Offense will be even more unbalanced and needy if Votto and/or Edwin Encarnacion is included in the trade.

$100 mil over 7 years. If the M's aren't prepared to step up and do that right away they need to walk. No point trading for him if you won't pay what he wants now, let alone in two years. Is there any rule against the M's turning around and trying to flip him to the Yankees for Phil Hughes? I dunno if they'd do it but it would be nice to see the Mariners be creative for once. Keep the white on black!

NoProblem, if you flip him, you'd be trading 5 of your best prospects for Philip Hughes????

GASP is a problem because the Reds continue to think that Home Run hitters (Dunn, for example) are the way to succeed though that hasn't happened the last seven (losing) years. So, they keep streaky, Strike Out prone, power hitters but don't add guys who can make contact.

Playing in GASP and having Adam Dunn in the line-up is like giving Pamela Anderson larger breast implants, unneeded and unnecessary. Teh Reds have enough power as it is to compete in GASP. Where they need Dunn's power is on the Road but that is where he folds like a tent. He also folds against Left Handed Pitching.

Year in and year out, the Reds lead or are near the top of the NL in Home Runs but only in the middle of the pack as far as Runs scored. This is because they hit too many solo Home Runs and do not get enough Hits with RISP. That is why Dunn can hit 40 HR's but have only 106 RBI's (or worse).

After Hopper and Keppinger were inserted into the line-up at the start of the second half of 2007, the Home Runs dropped BUT the team Batting Average and On Base Percentage improved and the Runs per game increased. The Reds won more games during the second half, compared to the first half, even though the team ERA increased.

Guys like Hopper and Keppinger do NOT rely on the Home Run. They just try and make contact and get on base. That helps the Reds at Home, because of the greater possibility of a batter behind them hitting a multi-Run HR but more so on the Road, where the Reds struggle to score Runs because Home Runs are HARDER to hit.

If Reds Ownership and Management were smart, they would build the Offense so that the team could win on the Road. That way, when they played at GASP, a place which is EASIER to hit Home Runs in, they could score more Runs and on a more consistent basis.

As it is, the Reds put up big numbers at Home (as do their opponents) and then get outscored and beaten on the Road. That is NOT the way to get into the Play-Offs or win Championships.

7/100M is certainly in Baltimore's budget to do so. The issue is if it is smart to do so in the longterm when you have so many holes at the upper levels? To stop the bleeding of rushing prospects you need to cap it from the top. I think MacPhail understands the chain reaction effect the major league level has on the rest of the system. If the Orioles had, say, 5-6 less holes to fill at the majors, then sure, sign Erik. No problem.

That being said, coming from a guy who's watched Bedard's growth since he was drafted, I have a strong hunch that he's going to hit Free Agency. And, considering how strong the interest has been this Winter, can you blame him? We've all got to realize that on average a baseball player will probably get ~2 contracts ever in their entire careers. Special guys will get more, for more years. You have to make them count. Bedard came THIS close to ending his baseball career in the minors with the elbow surgery. I think it's sparked a strong sense of baseball self-awareness and urgency in him from an early age. In my opinion he was never that kind of typical young reckless firebrand who thinks they are invincible because of that experience.

Maybe this is just a sign and trade to Seattle?!?! What if this was a condition of the Mariners adding a 5th player?! Maybe they were stuck on 4 and a half players and this bumps it to 5, who knows, right?! I don't see them signing in baltimore for over 4 years, period. You don't go from 3 to 7 and that's half the reason Bedard asked for that length I'm sure!

Bedard is probably insisting on a "must trade clause".

All of that being said, you NEVER know. In Seattle, that park is a great pitchers' park. And, it is also a park that favors lefites. An old saying goes, "Success makes your choices." If Bedard does what he does in Seattle. And, in that park, in that division, on that team, if it comes together, I can see him stay there. Ultimately I think Bedard wants to play on a good baseball team, period. Another caveat to this is that I don't really think that Bedard is a guy who will jump at the money or the limelight. In a way, I think Bedard would prefer to stay out of places like NYC or Boston. He is one of those guys who doesn't like to get bothered by media and just likes to pitch and work.

Bedard is seemingly set on Toronto, that's why it's risky to give up this much talent for a possible rental.

After reading the what sounds like the real story here:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080130&content_id=2360377&vkey=hotstove2007&fext=.jsp&partnered=rss_mlb

This sounds like a much more reasonable explanation than all of the conspiracy theorists on these boards. Apparently the hold up has been due to Angelos, but not for the reasons why folks here think. He called Erik up Sunday night as a last ditch effort to extend Erik the courtesy of the option of making it his choice. Essentially he was asking Erik, "do you want to leave and go to Seattle? Or, do you want find a way to stay in Baltimore? Your choice."

In the meantime we had the random radio rumor about Adam Jones' hip. And then the PR slip by Jones of leaking the trade news early. All of that just complicates a complicated situation and basically armed an army of conspiracy theorists eager for closure and willing to fill in the blanks between some pretty widely arcing clues.

To me the part that makes this a deal about to go through is that Erik is a real deal pitcher. He likes to pitch and play ball. He doesn't get caught up in the celebrity or money part of it. He asks people around him to give him his space and he'll mind his own business and will go out and dominate.

I think Erik liked Baltimore a lot. True that it's not for everyone. It has a lot of local color. If you aren't into that sort of thing then you'll never be into it. But for a baseball player, esp. the Os, you are an instant loved circle and everyone knows you. There is quite a circuit in Baltimore (bars, restrants, etc..) that I know for a fact that have Bedard signed autograph pictures there. It's also the type of place where you can easily go into a restuarant and see Hall of Famer, Jim Palmer or Cal Ripken, eating a few tables from you.

I grew up in MD but today I live in New York City. And, I am not sure if Erik is really the type at all to like the city, even a nice city as you call it. He is really a "country boy" at heart, or at least the Canadian equivalent to one. The fact that MD is a big fishing region also plays into it too with Erik I'd imagine.

Dude, Seattle is the wilderness... All my friends and I did growing up was camping, skiing, snowboarding, hunting, fishing, etc. It's one of the reasons a lot of hunters and fisherman liked playing here.

Why is Great American Ball Park referred to as GASP??

I started calling Great American GASP because it is such a band box and is SOOOOO easy to hit a Home Run in. It reminded me of a Little League park.

So, along those lines, I renamed it Great American Small Park (GASP, for short). Which is also what Pitchers do when they have to pitch there and see how regular Fly Balls in most other parks go over the fence for Home Runs.

That is one (of many)reasons why I do NOT want the Reds to trade for Bedard. Bedard is a Curve Ball Pitcher and hanging Curve Balls don't stay in play very long in GASP. Bedard may be able to get away with them in Baltimore but not in Cincinnati, especially when the poor Outfield Defense would allow more runners to get on base.

In the last 2 years, Bedard doesn't have a normal curve. He actually doesn't hang that many. Or at least, none of them are the kind that are hangers in the srikezone. And they aren't the kind that are trying to be 12-6. The break is more like 10-5 and it happens pretty late and dramatic. To be accurate he has more like two curves. One starts at the batters' head level. The other just looks like a fastball until the last 3-5 ft when it takes a sudden dive into the ground. Most other lesser stuff-ed pitchers start their breaking balls strikes in the vicinity of the strikezone. Bedard's breaking balls start out as looking like wild balls.

And, to say that he's a curveball pitcher is not entirely accurate. He's actually a sneaky power pitcher. He doesn't look it but he is an optical illusion who looks like a changeup but it gets to the plate at 96 mph fastball. He never really looks like he's throwing hard which might account for how you took him to be a curve guy, similar to Rich Hill, for instance.

MacPhail has gone on the record and said that Angelos has not vetoed the deal or even held it up. Also, it sounds sort of like Angelos was going into the hospital for some kind of major procedure right as this rumor got going. That sort of makes sense why he wasn't able to sign off on it.

MacPhail: Angelos didn't veto Bedard deal
http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-macphail0130,0,3229734.story

maximumpotential,

Have you seen how the ball carries in GASP?? Also, have you seen that Bill James (or some other guru) has stated that Left Handed hitters power numbers are inflated by 27% in GASP??

Bedard might do well against Right Handed hitters but he will have trouble against Lefties in GASP. He would also have trouble in Wrigley when it is cold because he wont have the feel for his Curve Ball when his fingers are cold.

Bedard would be better served if he went with a team that plays in a dome or in a large ball park. Seattle makes the most sense because the weather isn't that bad and they play against Oakland (large ball park) and the Rangers, who Bedard has a really good record against.

ctownboy,

In addition to what you wrote, he would also get to play a ton of games in Anaheim, Texas and Oakland, where the weather is usually warm, decent and precipitation-free. And, of course, Seattle has a retractable roof.

So you want a pitcher in Cinci that doesn't throw curveballs? Not even the Yankees bats could touch that bender he throws. Bedard is a strikeout/ground ball pitcher when he's on.

The Angelos stuff wasn't a conpiracy theory since those are based on facts with supportive evidence. This was more along the lines of the recent news, headlines and rumors fitting perfectly with PA's reputation and business decision history as owner of the Orioles. I know most people living outside of Baltimore don't fully realize how badly he has been here, but I'm glad that conclusion was wrong. I still think he is more valuble to us if he is traded, though.

By the way, PA. Way to go in yet again delivering on your policy of make the deal first, then try to sign the player to a contract. If I'm Seattle at this point, I'm pissed. They spent the whole offseason trying to get him and I hope they do because if not, Seattle is going to raise hell and some nasty comments will probably come from Bavasi and Co. If signing him first can get us four top 10 prospects from that organization instead of three, let's do it. If it gets us five players instead of four, let's do it. I'm tired of the roller coaster already just figure out what you're going to do and do it.

Ill tell you one thing... I would think if you like canada you would Seattle. My only problem with the place is that the rainy winters suck. I love the actually city of seattle though and if I had the money to live in two cities one would be seattle for sure. I would like to see Bedard in Seattle I think it would do wonders for him to be in a pitchers park and out of of the AL east.

I'm not sure if Bedard would be so quick to fly the coop after two years, provided Seattle makes him a fair offer. I can't express in words how anti-attention this guy is. Stuff like that is fine in Baltimore, because media coverage of the Orioles is mostly laid back. There is no way he could get away with some of the stuff he pulls if he's in NY or Boston. He tends to sneak out of the locker room and avoid press conferences even after he has good games. He just doesn't like to mince words and I think that's an admirable trait. Big market media most likely will not.

NOT ANOTHER LEFTY SAGA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

best guess on how things started... By the way, all my Angelos bashing has been on the money... I wrote a huge long rant only to find out that all of my points are justified. Hmmm, weird guy speaks out and is vindicated for his public disdain of Angelos when the Orioles owner holds up negotiations, again! By the way Mr. Peter Angelos, you are not that G.D.(G.. Damn) special that you can drag your feet and no one will dare oppose you, keep building up enemies in the league and soon you'll be forced to prove what you can do with your minor league system cause no one will trade with you! Your just a big dumb a-hole! Ask Bedard if he wants a contract extension, tell him that he has 24 hours to choose and if he commits to getting a deal done than trade talks are off. Simple business practices are all we look to see, not you trying to corner a player into choosing between two cities!

The problem with that is easy to see. Look no further than Cinci and the Dodgers. Did they try to throw Jay Bruce or Clayton Kershaw at us? No chance, but Seattle is throwing Jones at us? Something just isn't right about this.

Guru,

“best guess on how things started... By the way, all my Angelos bashing has been on the money... I wrote a huge long rant only to find out that all of my points are justified.”

…Humm, we have three articles on the situation:

A) Angelos called Bedard to give him the final say on if he wanted the deal to take place… (therefore Angelos relinquished his veto power and gave the authority to Bedard to say if he wanted to play in Sea or Balt)

B) Angelos was in/going to the hospital for surgery and didn’t go over any details of the deal…

C) The deal was never far enough into it to where Angelos could have vetoed it…

Now, all of those can actually be true at the same time as well ~ none of them cancel each other out at all…

Then we have your quote:

“If anything the deal was done and Angelos it pissed at Jones for opening his mouth and that has either delayed or nixed it entirely.” … “My best guess would be that they are re-working the package to include Balentien or someone else instead of Jones to satisfy Angelos and they need an excuse to keep Oriole fans from throwing a fit!”
Posted by: BaseballGuru | January 29, 2008 at 10:28 PM
(((that was your second post ~ the first seemingly didn’t talk about the situation today and just things of the past)))

Ok, not quite sure how you manage to come up with your new conclusion of being right the entire time, but if it makes you happy I guess… Is that something they teach you in law-school, “no matter how off track your statements are, you are always right”?