Kelvim Escobar's Season May Be Over

Kelvim Escobar's season, and perhaps even career, may be in jeopardy because of his shoulder issue.  A contribution this year is a long shot.  Baseball Injury Report's Rick Wilton guesses it is related to the rotator cuff.  By the way, Baseball Injury Report was all over this last night; check it out and consider subscribing.

John Lackey's triceps strain takes on heightened importance with the probable loss of Escobar.  Lackey, Jered Weaver, and Jon Garland is still a competitive front three.  And between Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana, Dustin Moseley, and Nick Adenhart, the Halos can figure out the last two slots.

If Tony Reagins does look externally for more pitching, here are some options off the top of my head: Claudio Vargas, Jason Marquis, Matt Morris, Matt Belisle, David Wells, Jorge de la Rosa, Byung-Hyun Kim, Horacio Ramirez, Anthony Reyes, and Cliff Lee.  In other words, slim pickens right now.

Comments

[daslied]

One of Juan Rivera, Chone Figgins or Reggie Willits for Chuck James!!

[MrLomez]

How about Kevin Correia or Jonathan Sanchez of the Giants for Brandon Wood. A lefty bullpen arm like Jack Taschner/Steve Kline might be of some use to the Halos as well.

signed, the commission to get a young serviceable 3B for the Giants and get Brian Sabean fired along the way.

[bseballcrzy17]

and suddenly the acquisition of Garland looks soooooooo amazing.

I would pull a Willits for James deal in a heartbeat, btw.

I could see them making a run at Vargas, or even at Reyes, but they're more likely to try and stick it out, because they're stubborn (and stupid) that way.

[start_wearing_purple]

Damn it! I missed my fantasy league draft and he was drafted automatically.

Anyway, isn't Lackey also out for April? They might be limping through the first month, but ultimately I think the Angels have the depth and bullpen to survive without making a more than minor aquistion. As it stands right now Weaver, Garland, Saunders, Santana and Moseley isn't a horrible scenario. Once Lackey comes back Moseley or Santana to the pen and you still have a tough Angels team.

[daslied]

Actually, the Willits thing was a joke - they'd have to cough up a bit more for James. :)

[bobbymcnally]

y'all forgettin' willits is untouchable right now

[bseballcrzy17]

I figured, that's why I said I'd pull it. :)

they said he was untouchable, but that doesnt mean that he actually is. I'm sure somebody could pry him away. Actually, im hoping that somebody takes him away

[bjsguess]

This hurts. Escobar is a great pitcher.

However, no need to panic right now. The Angels only need to make a trade if the player coming back is a substantial upgrade over internal options. Right now I'm fairly confident that Mosely or Adenhart could give them a mid to high 4's ERA and pitch 160 - 180 innings. The guys listed as potential replacements would perform similarly or worse.

They do have plenty of pieces to move for the right player. Willits, Rivera, Aybar (or Izturis), GMJ, Haynes, Morales, Mathis + a slew of minor league talent. I would love for them to go all in and go for a young gun.

If Escobar does come back they can let Garland walk after this year. If Escobar doesn't come back you have a replacement.

[start_wearing_purple]

All in on a young gun means Wood and/or Adenhart depending on the gun.

[FineHamAbounds]

Wow... this doesn't bode well for the Angels (or Escobar). It would be a shame to see a guy about to finally reach his potential get shut down for good.

[zito4cyyoung]

Possibly this could re-kindle the Giants/Angels trade. Nothing was apparent before, but Bengie and Jonathon Sanchez plus a prospect for Kotchman and Mathis.

[milehigh78]

...I was gonna say. Willits for James (LOL). Glad you added that last post.

This looks bad. The Halos have depth, but you don't lose an Escobar without it having a serious effect. Santana has serious talent (and serious question marks). If that kid can put it together, they'll be alright. Still...

That Giants deal is on the absurd side, but I COULD see Wood being used as trade bait. The Angels have systematically gone about wasting a great farm, by and large, and have blocked Wood in particular, over and over. At least this way you can get some value for dude.

I know I'd love to get him on my O's, but can't see that happening personnel-wise. Obviously, it's premature to panic. For now, the Garland, Weaver, Saunders, Moseley, Santana rotation is worth a wait-and-see approach and Lackey will be back FAIRLY soon, so... Actually, it could work out in your advantage as long as you don't fall too far behind the Mariners. Getting the younger guys some innings doesn't sound all bad. If anything else happens, though...

Wood, O'Sullivan, Morales, and Reckling to OAK, maybe?

Just a thought.

[Tim Dierkes]

Couldnt see the Halos taking on James, who is a health risk.

[jrfukudome]

Milehigh,

If the O's are going to be that bad, why don't they dangle Guthrie?

[milehigh78]

Sanchez isn't enough of a 'get'. Maybe an all-in with Kotchman, Mathis, Wood, and Walden for Lincecum, Benjie, and Alderson! Of course that would NEVER HAPPEN, but it's fun to think about. The Halos get a stud frontline starter and future ace as well as a better catcher and their future closer (allowing them to pass on KRod's gargantuan asking price and maybe use that money to throw at Teixeira), while the Giants load up on talented young studs. Imagine that rotation in two or three years: Lackey, Lincecum, Garland, Weaver and Adenhart! Considering Lincecum, Weaver, and Adenhardt's ages...?! Teixeira at first instead of Kotchman! (and Morales for now). Alderson's a future star in the 'pen.

The Giants make out too. Kotchman is a nice young 1B, Wood has the makings of a star at 3B, Walden could eventually replace Lincecum behind Cain in the rotation (if everything broke right- he's still pretty young and raw), and Mathis could still turn it around- dude used to be a top prospect and is defensively solid.

Of the two sides, I think that, despite a potential ace changing hands, the Angels would balk first. They've always been conservative in trades and they can still make the playoffs without pulling the trigger, so...

Still, unless that team grows a pair and focuses on a singular strategy- youth or win-now- they're gonna keep getting knocked out in the first round.

[bseballcrzy17]

If Garland has a year anywhere close to good, he's going to be resigned. The Angels have been after that guy for years. He's still pretty young, and he'd be a solid guy to keep, especially with the apparent permanent loss of Escobar.

Adenhart has had a very good spring, so I wouldnt be surprised to see him in the rotation from here on out.

[darkstar1661]

“y'all forgettin' willits is untouchable right now
Posted by: bobbymcnally”

Yeah, but basically because people were offering nothing but trash from what we heard. If he’s “untouchable” then maybe you will get a bit better offers for him, probably what the Angels were thinking… I think the other teams just realize he shouldn’t hold value, but maybe someone jumps for the current hype…

Anyway, this news will hurt the Angels of course; but I don’t think it will be anything near crippling. They had so many capable starters to begin with, so they should be fine. It will end up hurting more if Lackey doesn’t come back when planned or someone else gets hurt ~ that would be the killer…

[zito4cyyoung]

Lincecum is basically untouchable...

Rios and Delmon Young were both offered for Timmy. Kotchman has a lower ceiling than both of them.

Wood is an interesting prospect. Wonder what it would take in a straight 1 for 1.

[darkstar1661]

"Sanchez isn't enough of a 'get'."

...I kind of disagree with that. Maybe not enough of a "get" for the Angels since they are trying to go all the way and probably want experence; but he will probably be fairly special if the Giants ever stop screwing with him...

[milehigh78]

Jr.-

Read my mind! I don't know how far McPhail is willing to go, but from where I'm standing, I say we go all in! Screw it! Let's lose EVERY game! (LOL)

Seriously though, I haven't heard the subject brought up once (by anyone but myself), but I love that idea for either this year, before the trade deadline, or after the season. Obviously, it'll depend entirely on how he pitches.

If Guthrie can prove that last year was no fluke (and, as a former first rounder, he has the stuff). When he's commanding his fastball and getting it over early in the count, he's dominant. Honestly, any Boston fan has to remember how he pitched against the Sox (esp. the game in which he got pulled throwing a shutout, having only thrown like 80 pitches in the eighth inning and the Sox came back and scored like nine runs in the ninth!). I'm playing with fire here, but he has the potential to have every bit as much value as Blanton...if he pitches well. He doesn't even have to improve on his '07 numbers. All he needs to do is stay healthy and work at about the same level.

Guthrie is entering just his second season, isn't eligible for ARBITRATION until 2010 and is under team control THROUGH the 2012 season. Not bad. Last year he posted the second lowest ERA amongst AL Rookies- lower than Dice K, lower than Hughes (admittedly hurt, but)...

He's also 28, turning 29 during the season. While that hardly rules out a long and distinguished career, I would argue that he doesn't necessarily fit into the club's long term rebuilding plans. I feel the same way about Sherrill and Scott (who, if he posts numbers anywhere near Dierkes' prediction of .280 w/ 30 dingers, will have considerable value on the trade market and make that Tejada deal look downright great; likewise, Sherrill could be a value pump and dump for prospects).

So...28. Under long-term control on the cheap. Coming off a very nice '07. Yes, Jr., he could be a serious player in mid-season talks.

I doubt that the O's would consider trading him now...though that could change with more injuries. I just don't know that his value is where it needs to be to net the kind of return that would make a deal worth making (did that make sense?). I'd love to hear anyone else's opinion as to Guthrie's current value on the market. Tim?

The other problem with trading Guthrie now is that Baltimore's rotation is in SUCH a volatile state. Granted, I'm of the opinion that we basically flush this year and make every decision based upon the future of the franchise. Nevertheless, by trading Guthrie, you're putting that much extra pressure- figuratively AND literally- on the Orioles' young arms. How many innings are these kids supposed to pitch? We'll wind up with a bunch of Pattons.

Waiting to trade Guthrie comes with its own set of dangers, of course. Obviously if he pitches poorly or gets hurt, he loses value. It's a matter of weighing two imperfect choices and determining which is best.

In this case, I think the best idea is to wait. By mid-season, there's a chance the rotation will have some measure of stability (that's not to say they're going to win much) and the team can consider bringing up some of their talented youngsters without fear for their futures (or at least, less fear).

If, Guthrie has managed to pitch as well as he did last year (particularly in the first half, as his ERA was actually pretty weak in the second- though that was when he was dealing with some injury issues), then yes, Jr., I would be all over that. I'm not saying the return would rival Bedard's, but it certainly wouldn't suck!

[milehigh78]

What's your definition of special re: Sanchez, Dark?

I like the kid, but he's not a frontline starter...I think. Middle of the rotation? OK. But I still don't think the Angels send a nice young 1B like Kotchman and one of their young C's to SF for Sanchez and Molina (and a prospect- too nebulous). It's for the same reason that you alluded to in your post- they already have a number of somewhat 'capable' arms. Saunders, Santana, and Moseley all have some potential (Santana COULD be a frontline arm...or Daniel Cabrera, Jr.) and Adenhardt could be a star if everything breaks right, so...I figured that if the Halos decided they wanted a starter (Escobar gone for good? Maybe Lackey lacks- ugh- recovery speed...?) it would have to be someone with legit frontline capabilities. That's all. Not knocking Sanchez.

BTW- my guess for Sanchez- No. 4, with a shot at being a 3-type.

[milehigh78]

Oh and zito4cyyoung-

'Lincecum is basically untouchable...'

I don't know if he is (I'll take your word for it, but it seems like he gets talked about more than any other young pitcher), but he should be. Kid is awesome and- so long as he stays healthy- is only going to get better. I swear it seems like people forget that last year was his rookie season. He and Cain...bonkers!

[BK]

The Angels have known about the tear since the first week in november. It was why they shipped a fan favorite for an innings eater. They didnt say anything to keep a poker face, and now with no deals in line and the season starting they dropped the bomb.

Second. All you people are underrating the value of Kotchman, Morales and Wood. Kotchman is a gold glove .300 25 hr first baseman. Morales and wood are raw but very high upside. Mathis, Morales and Rich Thompson for Lincecum.

Boosh!

[zito4cyyoung]

milehigh...

I guess everyone can be had for a price, but Delmon Young is one of the best young players out there and Giants wouldn't trade him. Also Rios.

Cincinati wanted Timmy as well, but the Giants wanted Bruce in return. Reds said no.

Giants fans were already planning to riot if tim/rios happened.

[jrfukudome]

"Kotchman is a gold glove .300 25 hr first baseman."

Now, see, I was unaware of that.

[BK]

Just wait. If he doesnt go get mono again and finished a season thats about what scouts peg him at.

[darkstar1661]

“What's your definition of special re: Sanchez, Dark?”

Sanchez has SP2-SP3 starter stuff, and really just needs a team to make him a fulltime starter or decide to prep him for the closer role completely ~ the back & forth between the rotation and pen coupled with unrealistic expectations the Giants showed when they called him up too early are hindering the progress of a special arm. He might get his shot now with the Lowry injury, but its rumored anything less than amazing will get him yanked when Noah comes back. Had they allowed him to develop in the minors the last two years with maybe a callup sometime in 07; well, we might be talking about Cain/Linc/Sanchez as the best 1-3 in baseball sometime throughout the year…

Anyway, I didn’t really pay attention to the trades talked about an wasn’t commenting on that aspect of it ~ just trying to give Sanchez some much deserved props and recognition. I seriously was worried the Giants were going to send him to Chi for Crede ~ once someone gives him a real steady opportunity he will turn quite a few heads. If given a real opportunity, I think there is little chance he is anything less than a 3 starter…

[bseballcrzy17]

i still think that whole Giants-Angels trade was pure speculation. My guess is that they talked briefly about something and whoever reported in decided to embelish.

Kotchman is being highly underrated. He was a top 5 first baseman (offensively and defensively) before getting beaned in the head last year. If he plays a full year the way he started last year, he'll hit .300 and 25 HRs with no problem

[dbacksbuzz]

Anytime Byung-Hyun Kim is mentioned as one of the options for available pitchers, you REALLY know it's slim pickens.

[bjsguess]

lol dbacksbuzz ... great line.

Thank you Kotchman supporters. Finally people are giving the guy some props. He is still young, has a great glove, and has a minor league record anyone would be proud of. I made the argument before and I will make it again, Kotchman is very similar to Alex Rios. If the Giants were considering a trade of Lincecum for Rios certainly they would look at a trade featuring Kotchman + others.

Also, please, please, please stop trying to suggest that the Angels are interested in Molina. The rumor was that the Giants wanted Kotchman and Mathis and the writer thought that Molina would be coming back. We have Mike Napoli. We like Mike Napoli. We don't want Molina or his contract. Go pawn him off on the Reds or some other team.

If the deal isn't for Lincecum then there are other options. I like the Guthrie option. Won't cost as much in terms of talent but still has upside to be a #2/#3 type arm. They should be speaking to the Reds about Bailey. Really, there are several great potential acquisitions IF it gets to the point where the team panics. Personally, I'm not sold on Seattle being all that. I think the Angels can be patient and not have to hit the panic button.

[bseballcrzy17]

I also like the Guthrie option... it's interesting.

i doubt it would happen, but it would be interesting. we'd eventually have a rotation of right-handers. that would be weird.

[Burtis]

bjs: Agreed, the Angels (without another injury) should stand pat unless a frontline pitcher becomes available. Again I agree and will repeat, the Angles do not want/need Molina. Big bat NOT fat bat.

[basemonkey]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say a frontline pitcher will not become available. Esp. during the start of a season and doubtful for middle of the season.

[basemonkey]

As an Oriole fan I think it's not the right time to deal Guthrie. He might end up going elsewhere but his value is not at a high yet. He has a very good chance of increasing his value this season. And, when it's all said and done, his value will be higher than Blanton's is. Blanton is a decent pitcher, not a frontline guy. Guthrie throws high 90s with an excellent breaker with command. He has a chance to be a frontline guy. Even if he isn't, he has a good chance of proving last year was not a fluke by just making a season's worth of turns in the majors.

Also, as far as the idea of cashing all the chips in, I'm going to assume that these suggestions are coming from fans who have never seen a team sell every veteran player before? Basically a baseball team is intertwined with interdependent statistics. For instance shortstops, CFs, and 2B defense can account to up to a .70-1.00 pts in a SP's ERA. A study released ~20 years ago stated that teams rebuild faster when they keep key veterans to anchor spots rather than selling everyone. Basically for the reason that trade values of your players are all suppressed if it's a completely young team.

[bjsguess]

I'd love to see that study basemonkey.

As for no starting pitchers being available ... if the Orioles are 20 games out at the All-Star break and the Angels put together an offer around Kotchman and Rivera (for example) I have to think that the O's would listen to the proposal.

Another scenario - the Astros wake up one day and realize that they are not competitive (even in the NL Central). They realize that they need to rebuild and start entertaining offers on Oswalt.

I'm not suggesting that either scenario will happen. The point is, depending on how teams are doing it's easy to see situations where pitchers that are untouchable today would become available during the year.

[Dan Kohler]

Well, we dont care about your Fantasy team now do we start wearing purple! We dont care about it all !!! just kidding i have him too!

[milehigh78]

Wow...non-Cubs threads are nice. No anger and bitterness. No over-valuing prospects. Open mindedness (even if someone disagrees). I hope the next time the O's try to make a trade, it's to a team with a thread like this (LOL)!

[la16]

What a shame. I got to see him pitch twice last year in Anaheim (err Los Angeles!). Just an awesome pitcher. Reminds me a lot of Ramon Martinez in LA a few years ago.

Paging Mr. Adenhart. Your time is here.

[darkstar1661]

“Wow...non-Cubs threads are nice. No anger and bitterness. No over-valuing prospects. Open mindedness (even if someone disagrees). I hope the next time the O's try to make a trade, it's to a team with a thread like this (LOL)!”

Yeah, aren’t they great… Just dont mention it on one of those threads though, or you’ll quickly be told that its everyone else who make those threads that way… :)

[basemonkey]

"As for no starting pitchers being available ... if the Orioles are 20 games out at the All-Star break and the Angels put together an offer around Kotchman and Rivera (for example) I have to think that the O's would listen to the proposal."

I'm an Oriole fan. We would love to trade a age 28-30 frontline pitcher for prospects. Of course. Unfortunately, in spite of having a ton of possible future frontline guys, we don't have one now. We just traded that guy in Bedard and as good as Guthrie can be, he's not there yet. And, a half season of a good Guthrie run wouldn't change that enough to entice the Orioles for taking that kind of hit to the ML level considering what prospects he'd bring in. He wouldn't bring in anything near Bedard-level of package.

"Another scenario - the Astros wake up one day and realize that they are not competitive (even in the NL Central). They realize that they need to rebuild and start entertaining offers on Oswalt."

Possible, but, he recently signed the biggest contract to a pitcher in Astros history and has a No Trade Clause. And that's a club who can afford him.

"I'm not suggesting that either scenario will happen. The point is, depending on how teams are doing it's easy to see situations where pitchers that are untouchable today would become available during the year."

My point is that you have to narrow the teams that are near or toward the bottom end of the league with no prospect of improving. Mix in who might be small market clubs. Then you look through their rotations just to see if they have a frontline pitcher. When you consider what few true frontline guys there are, that is a narrow list. Also consider that even post-revenue-sharing small market clubs tend to at least sign their Aces if any. This past offseason was a rarity in the last decade as far as how many frontline guys became available through trade. Years prior to that the high man were names like Pavano, Burnett, Washburn, Zito. Maybe Burnett and Zito are above-average but their values were mixed at the time of their team change. When I say "frontline" I mean pitchers like Johan, Bedard, Verlander, Zambrano, Peavy, Beckett.

[la16]

Too bad Kazmir is hurt or we'd be talking about the Angels being involved in a 6-for-1. Though Sabbathia could be a possibility mid-season if the Indians are out of the playoff race.

[milehigh78]

Basemonkey-

I'm not saying I'm disagreeing with you, but I will play devil's advocate...

Guthrie has a big first half. NO ONE else is available or looks like they'll BE available at any time in the near future...

You STILL don't think his value is high enough to bring back a few plus prospects? I'm not saying Bedard-esque, but something in the Blanton range? And wouldn't that be worth a 29 year old? I'm just asking here...

Value is the creation of the market, not the other way around. If Guthrie is pitching well enough to be considered a No. 2 AND if the market is dry, then it stands to reason that the market- nothing else- has artificially driven up his value. Like you said, it's been an atypical year. GMs know that. Aside from CC- who, you never know, could sign an extension tomorrow- there really aren't any more true aces hitting the market any time soon. As such, the next level of pitchers almost BECOME the aces...in terms of trade value. If that's the best you can get via trade, then that's who's worth a crap-load of prospects. To put it another way, when the Bedards and Johans of the world are unavailable, and you're in desperate need of a stud starting pitcher, Blanton or Guthrie or whoever else is at the top of the list, IS worth that huge package. It's called inflation!

This is actually a fantastic example of a market economy. We've recently seen a time of stunning 'growth'- Johan etc. changing hands. Now we're going to see a time of inflated worth. Will Guthrie be among those? I have no idea. He COULD. And if he IS, I DO think the O's would listen to offers.

[darkstar1661]

To play devils advocate myself; I think you guys might be getting ahead of yourself a bit here... I love Guthrie, and as an Indians fan you should probably realize that I root for him like crazy. However, his 1st half last year was a rather obvious abnormality on his track record and the second half is probably more indicative of what you should probably be expecting. Not saying he will be bad, but you might be better off expecting something in the 4.5-5.0 ERA / 1.4-1.5 WHIP range.

Best case scenario is I’m wrong and you are pleasantly surprised, worst case I am right and you saved yourself the disappointment. To be talking as if he could be traded as if he is a front-line type though, well it might be jumping the gun just a tad…

[basemonkey]

I understand what you are saying but I totally disagree with you, milehigh. If Johan somehow became available, and your team needs him at July 31, then you might trade a Phil Hughes/C. Kershaw/etc type of elite pitching prospect for him. If it's a #2 type of pitcher who is the high man on the market, you just won't deal that kind of prospect for that kind of pitcher no matter how desperate you are or scarce SPs have become on the trade front. I understand what you are saying and I agree that a guy like Guthrie could be a top guy at the deadline, but, even though he'd bring in a nice package of guys, he won't bring in anything more than a Blanton-esque packages.

[basemonkey]

dark,
I saw many of those games personally. During that first half run, I don't think it was an anamoly. He was literally making pitches on the black almost every pitch with the breaking ball and 97 mph fastball. It just wasn't a fluke or unfamiliarity. You are right that he slid a bit towards the end of the year, but the whole team started to let down a bit. I'm not making excuses for him at all because he wasn't spotting the fastball like he was before. Then again, he was pitching with an injury for the last several starts during that span too.

If he never pitches with that degree of exquisite command, then you're prolly right about his career path, but, it's very hard to ignore right now what he was doing when he got to start regularly. I've seen mediocre-to-bad pitchers catch lightning in a bottle when they're called up before. This just wasn't it.