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Free Agent Stock Watch: Mark Ellis

A's second baseman Mark Ellis might be the affordable alternative to Orlando Hudson next winter.  In September of last year, the A's chose to exercise Ellis' $5MM option for '08.

Ellis, 30, was ranked as the fourth-best defensive second baseman by the Fielding Bible's panel of experts, behind Aaron Hill, Hudson, and Brandon Phillips.  The market might undervalue second base defense - Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projection system values Ellis at about $30MM over the 2009-11 seasons.  He seems unlikely to become a $10MM a year player.

Ellis also has offensive value.  He's good for a .330 OBP and .400 SLG, which is at least league average for the position.  And he is capable of more power, having hit 19 home runs last year.

Ellis seems likely to snag a contract of three years at $6-7MM per season. Sure beats Hudson's asking price.  Ellis just missed Type A classification last winter; I think he'll reach it this time (here's a refresher on the stats used for the Elias rankings).  Because of the likely Type A draft pick compensation, I can see him playing out the string in '08 with the A's.


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I could see Beane signing Ellis to an extension during the season, especially at 3 Years / 20-Million. The A's value Ellis more than any other team (it seems), so a trade is unlikely. Though, the Rockies could really use a solid 2B, but they aren't likely to give up Ian Stewart... or are they?

Actually jp I recently read that the Rockies are interested in Ellis. And that Beane's price would start with Stewart. Which actually sounds like a fair trade for both sides. Maybe the A's would even get the better deal. That would of course signal the end of Eric Chavez's reign in Oakland. Which I think would be great. He hasn't been healthy since '04 when we gave him the extension the following year. If he comes back in May and proves he is a little healthy and has some bat, I say trade him to the dodgers who desperatley need a 3B.

I also have to say: As soon as Harden comes back, pithces 3-4 decent starts...TRADE HIM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! We've got depth for pitching i.e. Gio Gonzalez, Greg Smith, James Simmons, Send him to the Yanks, the Reds, the Red Sox, anyone with a decent return package, is fine with me.

I think the A's are pretty much just stuck with Harden. At this point nobody's going to fall for the old "pitch 3-4 decent starts & trade him" routine. More than just about any other player in recent memory, Harden has shown the worst ability to stay consistently healthy. He's got about zero trade value at this point until he pitches more like 50-60 decent starts.

Midland, TX resident here. I see an interesting possibility coming around here. Ellis is a FA after this year, and has a moderate to good chance at getting class A classification. That means the A's would get a first round compensation pick if someone else signs him. As this is going on, Chavez's replacement is struggling mightily... and Chavez himself no longer looks like a great option with how fragile he's become the past few years.

Well, the A's AA affiliate is here in Midland. The Rock Hounds have a 23 year old kid by the name of Jesus Guzman who has split time between 3B and 2B. The kid plays great defense in both positions. He's also hit his 6th HR and drove in his 30 run in last night's game while going 2/4... and boosting the BA he carried into the game of .415. In the three weeks of the Texas League season thus far, he's won the Player of the Week status twice... and is on his way to doing so for a third time this week.

Perhaps he's being looked at as a possible replacement for Ellis or Chavez... and there's a slight amount of fear around here that he's going to be promoted to at least AAA at any moment... and could get the call to the big league team if Hannahan continues to struggle. Guzman has been far and away the team's best player thus far.

The A's have to sign Ellis to an extension seeing as there are no immediate replacements to take over for Ellis.

If you can get Ian Stewart from the Rockies, then I think you have to make that trade. There is a glaring weakness in the farm system at 2B, 3B, and SS.

I guess you would have to move Murphy to 2B and put Hannahan back as a bench player to make room for Stewart.

If he could get Ian Stewart for Mark Ellis, then I think that we have to officially crown Billy Beane as the fantastic trader that his reputation held for so long.

I mean come on:
Athletics lost:
Nick Swisher
Dan Haren
Mark Ellis

Athletics added:
Carlos Gonzalez
Ian Stewart
Gio Gonzalez
Fautino De Los Santos
Dana Eveland
Ryan Sweeney
Greg Smith
Aaron Cunningham
Chris Carter

That's an unreal haul. Four top prospects, a solid 4 starter, another solid back of the rotation starter, and 3 potentially good starters in Sweeney, Cunningham and Carter. All that for a good #2, a good second baseman, and a good outfielder. None of them are studs, but they are all quite, quite good. Still an unreal haul it'd be.

I honestly don't think that deal would happen, Stewart for Ellis.

I don't think that Ellis for Stewart straight up may happen, but Colorado has no place to put Stewart either.

He has nothing else to prove in the minors and he is blocked by Atkins at third and Helton at first.

scribbletone, everyone has been praising beane for ages. I mean come on if he was the gm for a team with a bigger budget... wow

BTW I think that the Ellis for Stewart deal is a lot more possible than advertised.

I wouldn't say everyone has been praising him for ages. He actually went through a bit of a spell where his reputation fell, the last couple years. The Moneyball Draft didnt work out, and the failiure of the Hudson trade was more advertised than the success of the Mulder trade. But the fact is that the guy has made three brilliant trades when dumping his stars and one bad one, and thats really quite good. And he let Giambi and Zito walk away and they soon after fell apart. You gotta admit both the Yanks and Giants regret those deals.

He was bashed somewhat for the faliure of their farm system, but thanks to some great trades and the addition of some good prospects like Cahill and Henry Rodriguez, they're back in the top 5-7 farm systems in baseball.

I dont see Ellis only getting 6-7 mil while O-Dog is getting 11-13 mil. No chance. If this happens, Ellis should fire his agent. These guys are way too similar as players for one of them to be making almost 100 percent more then the other when they hit unrestricted free agency at the same time. Between Ellis' defense, and his pop, somebody should pay him more then 7 mil a year. I would think he gets something closer to 4/36 once a couple of teams get involved, maybe even gets up to 10 mil a year. Ellis in a smaller ballpark with better protection around him could do some big things with the stick I think. Put him in Arizona batting second I wouldnt be at all surprised too see a .280/.350/.460 line from him, which paired with his spectacular defense makes him worth 10M a year to me. I mean seriously, Luis Castillo is making 6-7 mil a year. I know that was a crappy contract, but it was crappy because of the length, not so much because of the money, in my opinion. I would be shocked to see Ellis get a 3/20 type deal. 4/35-40 seems right to me.

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