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By Joe Pawlikowski [May 8, 2008 at 10:37am CST]
Buster Olney talks trade in his latest insider-only piece. Let's have a look at the guys he names.
- Ryan Howard. This is a tough one. Philly is in second place right now, and they should be in contention throughout the year. Howard has started poorly, but you can figure a rebound. While the Phillies might not be eager to pay Howard $25 to $30MM over the next two years, some other team might. I figure they could get a decent haul from, say, the Angels. Still, it's hard to justify trading away your best power hitter (at least in name) while you're vying for a playoff berth. The odds are long, very long for this one.
- Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon. No way, no how. Then again, Phillies fans are probably saying the same about Howard. The Yanks stagnant offense figures to improve once A-Rod returns next week and Jorge Posada gets back behind the dish next month. But Matsui leads the team in average, OBP, and slugging, while Damon is second in OBP. Unless the Yanks fall out of contention, there's no way they're trading these guys. Even so, they're a pair of 34-year-old outfielders making $13 million a season, with 2009 guaranteed. There's no way a team will offer anything close to equal value.
- Ben Sheets. If the Brewers are going to contend this year, they're going to need Sheets in the rotation. However, they're 16-17 right now, and likely won't see Yovani Gallardo for the rest of the season. The Brewers likely won't keep Sheets after this year, anyway, so if they're still in the middle of the pack, they can use the oft-injured ace to reload on players that can help them next year. Their lineup is still very young, with only two regulars over the age of 28. An influx of pitching could set them up well for next year.
Joe Pawlikowski writes for River Ave. Blues, a Yankees blog.
I guess its a slow news day
Posted by: SkiBolton | May 08, 2008 at 10:48 AM
Wonder if the Brew Crew would like to bolster its rotation with Matt Cain?
He'd be a great-long-term replacement for Sheets.
Giants would love to get Gamel & LaPorta with the view of having them ML ready next year.
Cain + 1
For LaPorta & Gamel.
Posted by: aGIANTfan | May 08, 2008 at 11:07 AM
I don't think Cain would mind a change of scenery (by scenery I mean run support). Gamel and Laporta are both raking but they are both also DH types...it would be tough to have two corner outfielders who are displaced infielders. I haven't seen Gamel in the field but I read he was brutal at third (which sounds familiar for Brewers fans). Not sure how Laporta has done in the outfield either but he is a big guy and not particularly agile...I don't imagine he will be league avg
Posted by: Jared78 | May 08, 2008 at 11:30 AM
I meant league avg in the outfield btw. He will most definitely hit.
Posted by: Jared78 | May 08, 2008 at 11:31 AM
LaPorta and Gamel are the Brewers two top prospects and top level bats. I'm not certain that they can be had anything less than a topflight guy given the premium being placed on cost-controlled talent.
Gamel gets Robin Ventura comparisons (his glove lags the original by a good margin it should be noted) while LaPorta projects as the heir to Prince Fielder and is sporting a nifty .330/.423/.696 line in the Southern league -- with a career hr rate of 1 per 10 Ab.
Posted by: Comma8 | May 08, 2008 at 12:00 PM
how about Howard to the Yankees? Probably have to include Wang in the deal, his ground ball style would be ideal for Philly.
Posted by: jakec | May 08, 2008 at 12:40 PM
Ha! Yeah, trade the Yankees Ace when he's pitching lights out for more offense? The Bronx would be rioting, kid.
Posted by: bucs_lose_again | May 08, 2008 at 12:47 PM
Why would the Angels want Howard? They already have a far superior defensive first baseman who is also rounding into a better all-around hitter. In fact, for the sabermetric types out there, Casey Kotchman's numbers from last year compare favorably with those of Justin Morneau, despite his injuries, including post-concussion syndrome, last year. This year, so far, he has been the Angels best all-around hitter. Forget that trade.
Howard to the Yankees does make sense. They can afford the contract numbers he will demand and they have a hole forming at first.
Posted by: AA | May 08, 2008 at 12:48 PM
Any AL team acquiring Howard would probably install him at DH as his work in the field is rather brutal.
Posted by: GravediggerHebner | May 08, 2008 at 01:04 PM
Juan Rivera and Nick Adenhart for Ryan Howard may actually play into the Angels lineup.
Posted by: BK | May 08, 2008 at 01:05 PM
Juan Rivera and Nick Adenhart for Ryan Howard may actually play into the Angels lineup.
Posted by: BK | May 08, 2008 at 01:06 PM
If the Brew Crew wanted to trade Sheets, where would they look to?
Posted by: jtag | May 08, 2008 at 01:22 PM
This type of pointless speculation is usually reserved for know-nothing sites like Soxtalk.
Posted by: OmegaMan | May 08, 2008 at 01:24 PM
On a side note, as an Angels fan I would love to aquire Howard for Adenhart and Rivera. LAA needs that pop. They got Hunter indeed but I'm talking about Prince Fielder Ryan Howard pop would be nice in the Anaheim line up.
Posted by: jtag | May 08, 2008 at 01:24 PM
It has nothing to do with how Howard is doing right now, I just really think the Phillies need to move him this winter if we have a winning team, or summer if we are just stagnating.
The haul that we could bring back, whether it be 2 legit ML ready players or restocking our depleted farm system, is worth more in the long run than his HR's (and K's) at that price.
I mean what do u think the haul would be?
Posted by: theboat817 | May 08, 2008 at 01:26 PM
If the Angels pick up Howard, they still have the outfield logjam, without the ability to rotate someone to DH. With all the power in the Angel lineup, they don't need a guy like Howard, especially since he can't run.
Posted by: AA | May 08, 2008 at 01:38 PM
I can see Howard in either Boston or NY. Those are the only 2 teams I can see paying Howard what he thinks he is worth. And what he thinks is worth is going to be around what A-Rod makes. And he ain't worth it.
For the Yankees he is the clean up hitter and protection for A-Rod.
In Boston he would be the clean up hitter and replace Manny Ramirez's bat in the line up.
Posted by: XD23 | May 08, 2008 at 02:12 PM
As an Angels fan I would trade Adenhart and Rivera in a heart-beat for Howard.
Vlad will be happy that he gets to stay in the field, GMJ and GA can split time in left.
Pay Howard through his arb years and then let him walk if he demands $20m+/year.
Personally, I am getting a little worried about Vlad. I have a sick feeling in my guy that he is on a permanent slide down. Not sure that the team can count on him to be a stable force for the next 4-5 years (assuming he resigns). I would feel much better knowing that we have another 40+ HR threat in our lineup.
BTW - I don't think for a second that the Phils would trade Howard for Adenhart and Rivera.
Posted by: bjsguess | May 08, 2008 at 02:18 PM
Where would Howard play in NY or Boston?
In Boston you have Youk/Lowell/Ortiz at 1B/3B/DH. You are not improving anything by taking Ortiz's bat out of the lineup. You just resigned Lowell so I doubt he goes anywhere. And Youk is good and cheap. Unless Youk can play LF (and Manny isn't resigned) I don't see it.
For the Yankees you have a hole at 1B and DH (after this year). Unfortunately, Posada will be needing one of those positions (most likely 1B) on a fairly regular basis. The DH will need to be kept open for the rest of the offense. You are talking about an offense that has 2 guys under 30 in their starting lineup. I don't think the Yanks have the luxury of getting a full-time DH.
Posted by: bjsguess | May 08, 2008 at 02:23 PM
Any Angel fan should trade Adenhart and Rivera for Howard with zero hesitation. That's a ludicrous deal as bjsguess points out. Never happen. If the Phils trade Howard it would have to be for a HAUL - ML-ready names plus prospects. Think the Miggy deal plus maybe 25%. The Marlins can afford to trade away players like that, nobody cares about them. I don't think there's space in Anaheim for him, though; Kotchman is gonna be at first there for years to come, and is a much better player dollar for dollar than Howard. And there's absolutely no room at DH between Garrett Anderson and Juan Rivera.
I don't see him going to NYY either; they already have 2-3 too many DHs, and they don't have nearly the pieces to get Howard from Philly unless it's another Abreu/Lidle deal.
All things considered it's hard to see Howard getting dealt; I predict Philly will just have to bite the bullet and pay him. It's not like they've got anybody burning to get PT behind him.
Sheets could definitely be dealt. I don't like the Cain suggestion much. Speculation when Milwaukee drafted LaPorta was that it was a "best bat on the board" type move and that his destiny for their organization was as a trading chip, almost certainly to the AL. I'm guessing we'll see him go to a second-tier AL team looking to make a splash in rebuilding and move up their horizon one season within the next year or two. I'm guessing Texas at 3:1, Toronto at 5:1.
Posted by: asm | May 08, 2008 at 02:33 PM
Big Joe,
Can you help me out here? When is this year's trade deadline?
Thanks.
Posted by: jrfukudome | May 08, 2008 at 02:34 PM
Howard needs to get on to the AL fast, or his trade value will disappear. Players like him don't age well, his defense is already bad, and his prime has come and will be gone before you can say "strikeout." He's already a DH without a position, so on a NL team they stuck him at 1B.
Posted by: FineHamAbounds | May 08, 2008 at 02:48 PM
The trade-deadline is on July 31.
Posted by: Joe | May 08, 2008 at 02:56 PM
"This year's" trade deadline?
Posted by: asm | May 08, 2008 at 04:01 PM
I can't see the Red Sox getting involved in Howard. Even if you trade Manny, move Youk to left (scary), and have Howard at 1B, you then have an Ortiz/Howard combo- lefty/lefty that come big game time, teams will just run out situational lefties and negate a lot of the power that these two offer. That's why Ortiz/Manny is such a great combo, Manny traditionally KILLS LHP.
I just don't see it happening.
Posted by: Papelboner | May 08, 2008 at 04:37 PM
But if you're the Angels, you'd be crazy not to see what it would take to get him. Vlad/Howard/Hunter, that's a scary good 3,4,5.
Trade Adenhart, Wood and either Juan Rivera or a bullpen arm.
1. Figgins 3b
2. Kendrick 2b
3. Vlad RF (he'd have to play RF, but he also wants to)
4. Howard DH
5. Hunter CF
6. Kotchman 1B
7. Anderson/Matthews LF
8. Mathis/Napoli C
9. Isturis/Aybar SS
Keep Matthews Jr. around to give nights off to the OF (with the pesky Willits availble as well).
I know you're giving up 2 stud prospects, but you're getting a 40/50 HR middle of the lineup stud. Would Phillies fans be okay with this if the team is out of the race at the deadline (not that I see that happening).
Posted by: Papelboner | May 08, 2008 at 04:48 PM
Gracias, Joe.
Posted by: jrfukudome | May 08, 2008 at 04:56 PM
Again, what would be the point of getting Howard? You end up sitting either $14 million worth of Anderson, who is a fan favorite and franchise leader in almost everything, or you sit $10 million worth of Matthews who has been clutch and is signed for 3 more years. Worse, Anderson is a rhythm hitter who needs to be in the lineup.
The Angels don't need more power. They already have plenty in the lineup, particularly as their two catchers fill into their potential. They also don't need Howard's salary and his strikeouts.
Posted by: AA | May 08, 2008 at 05:03 PM
Exactly. Juan Rivera already gets zero PT and neither Matthews or Anderson are happy. AA nails it (except for "Matthews is clutch" but that's a minor fault) on the head. They'd be adding significant salary at a position of depth.
Posted by: asm | May 08, 2008 at 05:30 PM
Disclaimer: Phillies fan whose first male child is named Chase.
However, I dont see Rivera and Adenhart. But Adenhart, Wood and a bullpen arm is a done deal I think. I actually had been thinking of that as a possibility. Push comes to shove, it probably could be a minor leage bullpen arm (albeit a promising one). 3b and P are two areas of need for the phils.
ANGELS FANS: Ryno is a great kid. You will love him. I think he will eventually back off of the $20Mper when he realizes that the pressure of the big contract is taking some of his joy out of the game this year and that joy is what will/has get him the big marketing bucks. Put him in LA, he's a movie star. He's got Garrett Anderson kind of appeal.
Second, there's power and then theres POWER. Chase Utley has power, Ryan Howard has POWER. Electrifying POWER. 60-70 HR power - naturally.
Also, when he chills and uses all fields, he's as one dimensional a hitter as everybody thinks. But again, we need pitching and 3B help....and Phils Mgmt is cheap.
Trade one of your catchers and rivera for something esle to replenish the farm system.
Papelboners 3/4/5 looks even better as 3/4/5/6 as Vlad/Howard/Hunter/Kotchman...
Posted by: steveh | May 08, 2008 at 06:33 PM
MEANT TO SAY:
he's NOT as one dimensional a hitter as everybody thinks...
whoops
Posted by: steveh | May 08, 2008 at 06:36 PM
GA has been good to the club for years now. However, he can sit. If he doesn't like it - tough. Same with GMJ. They can both split time and be happy to be part of a great team.
That's $23m in left field but GA comes off the books this year.
I would do Adenhart, Wood, Rivera and another B level prospect. That's two top prospects + solid starting OF + another B prospect.
More importantly it saves the Phillies $10-15m/year over the next 3 years.
Posted by: bjsguess | May 08, 2008 at 07:02 PM
"AA nails it (except for "Matthews is clutch" but that's a minor fault) on the head. They'd be adding significant salary at a position of depth."
Actually, looking at the numbers, GMJ has been clutch and nothing else. Leading in RBI despite his terrible BA.
Howard is simply not needed in an Angel lineup that is built on first to third and contact hitting. Striking out 200 times a year isn't conducive to such a strategy.
I do, however, think something should be done with Wood while the Angels can still sell high. They should commit to Figgins long term and do the same with Aybar. That leaves Wood as the odd man out. Unless they want to convert him to their DH, which is absolutely an option after this year.
As for Adenhart, he definately has not looked good in the bigs. Perhaps it is just nerves, but his control is an issue even in the minors.
Posted by: AA | May 08, 2008 at 08:24 PM
Howard would not fetch Wood and Adenhart. This is not migeul cabrera. Howard is signifcantly older, less talented and has been prone to long dry spells. THe Angels could very well ship Adenhart Rivera and willits for Howard. With Mickey Hatcher working with helping him make more contact, howard could be Adam Dunn Plus. I am sure if this is a possiblity Arte and Terry will certainly explore the possiblity, they always do. But there is no way they touch their starting core. Their young players are just too good
Posted by: BK | May 08, 2008 at 09:11 PM
BK, did you mean Arte and Tony? Anyway, Hatcher's style would not exactly be suited to Howard's weaknesses. Hatcher preaches aggressive contact hitting with power as a bonus, similar to how Carew developed players like Edmonds and Salmon. Howard is already an aggressive swinger, so it wouldn't do much to help him. Howard needs a hitting coach who preaches patience and seeing pitches, someone like Mike Easler.
As for Wood, I still think the Angels would be better off selling high on him or bringing him up as the DH.
Posted by: AA | May 08, 2008 at 09:38 PM
I laugh right in the face of the guy touting Gamel as an elite prospect.
I laugh even more at the guys on here hyping up Howard. Who is going to trade a ton for him? NOBODY. He's baseball's most overrated player and pretty much everyone knows that. The Yankees won't do it, the Red Sox won't do it, it's not going to happen. He's got 60-70 HR power? My ass he does. I doubt he ever hits over 50 again. He's been figured out, he's devolving into Mo Vaughn, he's out of shape, a horrible defender at 3rd, strikes out more than Adam Dunn - I haven't seen a guy with so many assets on paper but so lacking when you actually have him since Alfonso Soriano.
Howard's a joke to me. He's already closing in on 29, he can't field, too many strikeouts, makes way too much money, and plays a position where you can fall ass backwards into production. He's not going to be an elite hitter because of the strikeouts.
I honestly wouldn't lock up this guy up for any longer than after his age 32 season, and not for more than $12 million a year. It's just too easy to find 1b production to pretend that Howard is a $20 million player.
Posted by: DentalPlan | May 08, 2008 at 11:57 PM
I think Ryan Howard is a bit overrated. Yes, he may be a tremendous pure power hitter, but aside from the impressive home run totals, he gets you a bunch of strikeouts and shaky defense. Why would the Angels give up a bundle for that, when they have Kotchman under club control for at least 3 more seasons? He'd almost certainly wind up at DH, and I'm sorry, but $20 million/year is way too much to pay such a one-dimensional player.
Besides, athletes with Howard's body type tend not to age well, and are prone to breakdowns when they get into their 30s (see Frank Thomas). I'll laugh at any team that gets suckered into anything close to a 10year/20 million $ contract on this one.
Posted by: BigChris77 | May 09, 2008 at 12:52 AM
I'm a Phillies fan. Howard isn't going anywhere this year. I do believe that they should move him after the year when his value is still high. With this years weak FA class now is the time. The Phils might be able to keep Burrell and move him to first and use the rest of the dough somewhere else.
Some of the things said about Howard are asinine. Kotchman is not a better all-around hitter. Even someone with the memory of a goldfish knows that. Comparing Kotch to Morneau isn't the compliment AA intended it to be. Look up Morneau and look past his MVP year and what you have is a glorified Adam Laroche. The only time in Kotchman's career that his name could be included favorably in a sentence with Howard's is the last 45 days. Would anyone really be surprised if Howard has more HRs by the AS break this year than Kotchman has managed in his entire career(25)? Some of you should call Dave Littlefield, I heard he's putting together a staff.
I like how Buster got everyone spinning but all the resultant Rivera/Adenhardt talk is crazy. If a deal happened during the season, it would look much more like Figgins, Adenhardt, a front-end bullpen arm and at least one other front-end prospect. Figg allows the Phils to move Burrell to 1st to replace howard and move rollins down in the lineup. The Phillies aren't folding up tents anytime soon so all this talk about your fourth OFer and a pitching prospect is nuts. This is Gillicks last year and he isn't giving up on the season until they are eliminated.
If the Phils deal Howard it will be for a HAUL, that's one thing that asm did get right. In a market where Tex might get 10/200, 3 years of Howard, even at 15M/year, is going to clean out someone's inventory.
I would take the time to comment to DentalPlan but it would be a waste of time. Seriously Dude, don't let things like facts get in the way of your hatred for the guy.
Posted by: benjoua | May 09, 2008 at 01:33 AM
Ryan Howard isn't that good?
2007 OPS: 976 (T-9th in baseball)
2006 OPS: 1084 (3rd in baseball)
2005 OPS: 923 (rookie season - would have been 19th)
His 162 game average is:
281/388/588/976. He averages 50 home runs and 100 walks.
Yeah ... the guy sucks.
The discussion about the Angels was focused on Howard as a DH. Kotchman will stay at 1st base. And while Kotchman is cheaper today, if he continues to play like he is now his salary will also go through the roof during arbitration. In the future you will not be mentioning "cheap" and "Kotchman" in the same sentance.
Finally, people love to draw parallels between Howard and M. Vaughn. Somehow they never see the link between an even more similar player - David Ortiz.
Ortiz didn't start to shine until age 27. Since then all the guy has done is rake. He's fat. He's slow. He can't field. He has the wrong body type. Funny - you never hear BoSox fans complain about having such a dead-weight hanging around on their roster. The reality is that Ortiz is one of the best players in baseball - period. Even if he doesn't score as well as Grady Sizemore in a 5 x 5 fantasy league.
Posted by: bjsguess | May 09, 2008 at 01:50 AM
"Funny - you never hear BoSox fans complain about having such a dead-weight hanging around on their roster."
I don't think it'll be too long now before that's exactly what you'll hear.
Then again, Ortiz is almost exactly 4 years older than Howard. I don't think there's any team in the majors -- in a vacuum -- that wouldn't trade major talent and pay $15m per year for Big Papi's last 4 years. It's just that it's not the Angels, Red Sox, or Yankees that have the space for him.
Posted by: asm | May 09, 2008 at 10:59 AM
"Some of the things said about Howard are asinine. Kotchman is not a better all-around hitter. Even someone with the memory of a goldfish knows that. Comparing Kotch to Morneau isn't the compliment AA intended it to be. Look up Morneau and look past his MVP year and what you have is a glorified Adam Laroche. The only time in Kotchman's career that his name could be included favorably in a sentence with Howard's is the last 45 days. Would anyone really be surprised if Howard has more HRs by the AS break this year than Kotchman has managed in his entire career(25)?"
Um, Kotchman was essentially a rookie last year after spending most of 2006 out with mono. Further, his potential as a hitter for contact and power, not to mention run saving defense eventually looks really good against a one sided game like Howard's.
Leaving that aside, because it will never get settled, the reality of the situation is that Howard doesn't fit with the Angels' game. Aside from Kotchman (of all people), every single player on the Angels has above average speed, including both catchers. Even Kotchman has the base running smarts to go first to third whenever possible. A plod like Howard just doesn't mesh with that kind of game.
Posted by: AA | May 09, 2008 at 07:25 PM
AA, you are correct this will never be settled.
However... it's this idea that somehow Kotchman is the better all-around player that I can't get my mind around. The game is about scoring runs and preventing the other team from scoring. Even during this disgusting 1/4 season that Howard has enjoyed, Kotchman has produced exactly 5 more runs than Howard. If you assume that Kotchman and Howard will continue at their current rates then you are absolutely correct, But that is a pretty big assumption on both ends.
Over RHs career he produced 1.44 r/g. Even if you completely discount CKs first 750 ABs and look only at this year he brings in 1.18/game.
CK is going to have to save an awful lot of runs with his stellar defense to make up for the 40+ runs, conservative estimate, that Howard generates with his one sided game. AND, though I'm not the biggest advocate of fielding statistics, Howard's career RF is significantly higher than CK and his ZR this year is significantly higher than CK. But hey, all liars use numbers.
Keep rooting for your team and sticking up for your players. There's nothing wrong with that.
Posted by: benjoua | May 10, 2008 at 02:10 AM
The Yankees are never going to deal Johnny Damon, unless they get back a true lead-off guy. Its just not going to happen. But one trade I will welcome, in a heart beat, is a re-aquisition of Tyler Clippard. Come on, Cashman. We need him back! Trade Igawa for him!
Posted by: yanks26ngoin | May 10, 2008 at 09:02 AM