Free Agent Stock Watch: Rafael Furcal

5 Years X 75 Million....

I'm all over that. Not a problem!!!

Hope the Dodgers re-sign him, though anything longer than 5 years would be a mistake. Keep in mind, too, that Jeff Kent is probably done after this season, and they've had Hu filling in for him at times this season at 2nd, so Hu could also be their 2nd baseman of the future, not SS, and thus not as much a trade chip as it might seem. But I guess that's up to the Dodgers. They also have Ivan DeJesus Jr, a great prospect at SS, too, in the minors, so maybe he'd be the trade chip?

Craig - That seems to be the way they are leaning. The original plan seemed to be that once Hu showed he could hit with a little power, he could make Furcal expendable with Tony Abreu taking over for Kent and LaRoche providing pop at third. Now, Abreu and LaRoche look to be made of glass and Hu's defense at second is just as good as his defense at short. Combining that with Blake DeWitt's surprising play, you can see why the Dodgers don't mind spending some money on Furcal, seeing that the rest of their infield would be under control for quite some time, as Loney will not likely be a super 2 after next year. Also, it really isn't like Furcal would be getting a massive raise, and I can see him even taking 5/70 because of how much he likes L.A.

L.A. fans would riot if they let Furcal walk away. He's definitely a favorite

With Hu being such an incredible shortstop, and with the scarcity of young shortstops, it seems suboptimal to move him to second. Probably be better to trade him for something nice and then just sign a second baseman or use Tony Abreu there.

Here is the issue with that Tim. Abreu is an excellent defender and a good contact hitter, but there have been quite a few rumblings recently that he is not willing to play with pain even though he would not be at risk for future injury if he came back. With Hu's emergence offensively, he may contribute just as much as Abreu with the stick and can play defense on either side of second. Further, he is as good defensively at second as he is at short and under control for the full six years at this point. Also, they can hold down his value and resign him on the cheap later if he contributes offensively and let him take over for Furcal then.

The only way I can really see them moving Hu is if Delwyn Young proves he can defend at second day in, day out.

What they should do is try and sell high on Abreu's potential.

The Blue Jays have around 30m coming off the books next year (Burnett, Thomas, Zaun, Eckstein) so I could definitely see Ricciardi going after Furcal. Shortstop has been an organizational sinkhole since like forever. Well, Tony Fernandez - but without moving him and McGriff for Alomar & Carter the Jays never win 92-93!

As much as i like furkie, id like to see him totally healthy all year before they give him a 5 yr. deal. The dodgers have been without a true ace for a very long time.. in fact you almost have to go to kevin brown, even though i hate to admit he was a dodger. Id hate to see them spend so much money on furcal and not go after a pitcher. I like hu, but hes unproven, same with young, and abreu is a waste of breath and talent. derek lowe is as good as gone in 09, and penny is in an option year, so they will need pitching, especially in the western division, and all the pitching talent in the division, but who knows.. Im sure coletti will screw it up somehow, but thats a whole different can of worms right there

derailone76 - Without a true ace? 16-4/3.03 with only 9 HR given up and Third in the Cy Young, consecutive All Star games with 1 being a start and Penny isn't a true ace? I don't think so.

The Dodgers have absolutely no need when it comes to pitching. Not this year and not next when they let Lowe go. After all, they are letting Lowe go for a reason. Just resign Penny to an extension.

2009 Rotation:

1. Penny
2. Billingsley
3. Kuroda
4. Kershaw
5. Schmidt if Healthy/Not Tomko

Furcal is plenty durable and not an injury concern. Last year was a freak accident, and he still produced for the Dodgers. You just can't replace someone with such a complete game, especially with a guy like Hu who will probably never be a big hitter for average. Further, you end up with a hole at second base

i like penny dont get me wrong.. but peavy beats him every time.. he rarely gets past the 6th inn, because he cant strike guys out, while hitters cant keep up with him. hopefully he can finish becoming a pitcher and not a guy that continues high pitch counts. im not coounting on schmidt for anything and im not all that impressed with kuroda. im excited about kershaw and my favorite guy on the team is billingsley, but with the webbs, harens, youngs, cains, lincecums, peavys,(just to name a few) they need a TRUE ace on the staff. by the way pennys losing 2-0. to francis at that

and i would really like to see them get furcal, and yes there would be a major hole if he left. i recognize that. he is one of the best shortstops in the league. hopefully mccourt will shell out whatever is necesary to make the team win, but he needs to ship coletti out first. neds only good signing has been furcal. I like pierre, but a 5 yr deal c'mon. and jason schmuck!!! I wanted to smack him. the only reason the kids are still there is the fact that our GREAT owner mc court wont let ned touch em. pitching is going to rule the west for at least the next 5 yrs. give us an ace!!!

Derailone76 - Peavy beats him every time? Peavy is quite possible the best all around pitcher in baseball, so of course he is going to be tough. But lets look at the numbers.

In one start vs. the Padres last year, Penny and Peavy battled to a no decision, with each giving up just one run and Penny going 7 innings. In his two starts this year against Peavy and the Padres, he had 2 merely average starts, but they were his 2 worst starts so far this season (including today's game) and he went 6 inning with 4 ER in both. And in case you are forgetting, Peavy got hammered in one of those games as well.

As far as Penny's pitch counts correlating to his strike out rate, I don't know where you are coming out with that logic. Big strikeout pitchers often have the biggest pitch counts. Penny is mostly a ground ball pitcher, which means he pitches to contact and often has rather low pitch counts. Just because Grady was an idiot who didn't let him pitch more innings doesn't make him prone to high pitch counts. Your favorite guy on the Dodgers, Billingsley, however IS a strikeout pitcher and prone to high pitch counts.

Further, Lincecum?!?! Look, the guy has tons of talent and may well become an ace, but he isn't there yet.

As for your second post, it is Colletti who has held on to the youth. He knows production and his old school style means he values 5 tools, which almost all of the young guns have. McCourt is not a "great" owner, rather a so so one who is learning to run a club. If you want a "great" owner, look to Arturo Moreno. His politics may suck, but he runs the Angels like a team should be run.

“2009 Rotation:
1. Penny
2. Billingsley
3. Kuroda
4. Kershaw
5. Schmidt if Healthy/Not Tomko”

Add to that about 2-3 kids who will be trying to force their way into that 5th spot ~ most notably MacDonald…

Also wanted to mention ~ as a person who has been made to suffer through a revolving door of mrediocre at best SS for 15 years, I would like to say that I would like them to resign the one great one they managed to get ahold of! Furcal has been fantastic for the club, Hu can play a great 2B as we are seeing right now. 3 years from now, maybe the two even switch spots… No need for the Dodgers to spend money on anyone else this offseason though; more important is getting rid of one of the OF contracts that the team shouldn’t have signed! (Wonder who wants to take Jones at 18M with his below-weight BA and inflated belly…) Well, they can spend money on the pen, but otherwise keep it to fill real holes as they arise.

Lastly,
“i like penny dont get me wrong.. but peavy beats him every time..”

…Who doesn’t Peavy beat? You think you are going to find someone off the FA market who will be able to best him? Maybe a “Catastrophe Contract” could be given to Sabathia, but 2 years from now it will be regretted and will only further block kids (a problem the team currently has).

Bet he stays with the Dodgers, they won't let him go. The SS market is getting smaller and smaller. JP would do 5 year $75M easy. Been lacking at SS for so long, he'd lock it up. I wouldn't doubt if he gets more than that.

before this gets too crazy here.. i love brad penny, hes the ace of this staff, and has earned his reputation.. im just trying to point out that when lowe leaves there will be a hole. billingsley, kuroda, kershaw are not proven pitchers yet. the dodgers championships were all based on pitching.. its what the dodgers have always been known for. i just hope they take their time in deciding what to do. thats an inexpensive infield with hu dewitt laroche loney dejesus, abreu or any other kids on the squad, but dont put all your eggs in one basket either. all these kids are gonna want contracts before you know it too.. does anybody remember kooufax drysdale.. Please somebody tell me penny and lowe are even close to that

ive suffered without a championship for 20 years, lets not talk about holes for 15

“ive suffered without a championship for 20 years, lets not talk about holes for 15”

…Huh? I don’t care how long you feel you’ve suffered… And I’m not sure 15 years ago is the last time they had a solid SS anyway ~ I actually think its been longer than that; it was just the number that popped into my head But if you believe this:

“all these kids are gonna want contracts before you know it too.. does anybody remember kooufax drysdale.. Please somebody tell me penny and lowe are even close to that”

Then well… good luck I guess. See, no team needs Koufaz & Drysdale to win, the Rockies went with next to nothing in the rotation last year. Shoot, the DBacks had a rather patch-work rotation themselves and finished with the best record in the league. But I guess I see what ya mean, I mean the Dodgers have done so great recently in their attempts to build the better rotation ~ Dreifort, Brown, Perez, Ashby, Weaver, Schmidt, etc… They should really just continue to focus on trying to buy pitchers that they hope will carry them to the next level, right?

Of course Penny and Lowe aren't Koufax and Drysdale. Very few teams will ever have that kind of dominance in a pitching staff.

As for Lowe leaving a hole, anytime you lose a pitch with that kind of consistent quality (except against the Rockies for some reason), you have a hole to fill. On the other hand, Billingsley has proven that he can pitch at the major league level, despite his slow start to this year and Kuroda is already showing he can take care of major league hitters, despite the crap strike zone they have given him.

Also, the Brown deal wasn't THAT bad. They paid top dollar for the guy who was quietly the best pitcher in baseball for most of the 1990s and he actually produced quite well when he was healthy for the Dodgers. Of course, it never pays off to try and buy an entire a rotation, but signing free agents (witness Lowe) is not always a bad thing.