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Mayo Draft Mania
MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo is making a splash today, posting a brand new top 20 mock draft. He's also conducting a chat that begins right about now (I'm sure the transcript will be up after). Some interesting nuggets from Mayo's latest mock draft:
- Mayo isn't so sure the Rays have narrowed it down to Tim Beckham and Buster Posey.
- There's apparently some buzz that the Nats might consider Zach Collier way up at the ninth pick.
- Mayo replaces his Tanner Scheppers pick with Yonder Alonso for Houston.
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I wonder how much organizational need will play into the 1st round this year. The old maxim is "top available talent". But in a draft year that is considered fairly deep but without many obvious tiers between players, I really wonder how true this will be.
Examples using Mayo's mock draft. He has Smoak and Alonso (top college bats who are pretty much stuck at 1st) going 9th & 10th to the Nats and Astros. But the Nats top hitting prospect (Marrero) is already at 1st. Meanwhile, the Astros have Berkman at 1st, Lee in left, and Pence in right (I believe through 2012). So I don't understand how it makes sense to draft a top college bat who is blocked behind all-star hitters. Particularly when Berkman and Lee have no-trade clauses.
Plus, both the Nats and Astros could both use fast moving starting pitchers. So if these teams have Hunt and Friedrich rated pretty close to guys like Smoak and Alonso, it seems smarter to take the pitcher who fits an organizational need, rather than the hitter who is probably blocked.
Posted by: mymrbig | May 21, 2008 at 12:02 PM
As an Orioles fan, I am hoping for Pedro Alvarez to drop.
While Brian Matusz has eye popping numbers and is a LHSP (a position you can never get enough of), I think a bat makes more sense for the Orioles.
Cabrera, Olson, and Guthrie form a stable, young pitching nucleus for the O's. On the farm there are prospects Spoone, Hernandez, Tillman, and Berken at AA, Erbe, Beato, and Arrieta at high A.
Matusz is an exceptional talent and worthy of the 4th pick, but Alvarez, Tim Beckham, or even Gordon Beckham and Justin Smoak make more sense due to the enormous lack of positional offense in the minor league system after Wieters, Rowell, and Reimold.
Posted by: delaware_bird | May 21, 2008 at 12:23 PM
As an A's fan I really think we have enough pitching depth. Even scouting director Eric Kabota said that that is probably there strong point in the system on that little Oakland A's draft preview on mlb.com
I'd take Wallace if he's there. But if Gordan Beckham gets there (God Willing) I would take him in a heartbeat.
We need 3B, SS, 2B, of the future we're covered everywhere else. But I'd venture to say depth at C would be a concern as well.
A's Future:
Hitters - C Kurt Suzuki, C Landon Powell, 1B Daric Barton, 1B Chris Carter, No 2B, SS, or 3B standouts, OF Aaron Cunningham, OF Ryan Sweeney, OF Carlos Gonzalez, OF Travis Buck, OF Javier Herrera, OF Chris Denorfia
Pitchers: LHP Greg Smith, LHP Dana Eveland, LHP Gio Gonzalez, LHP Brett Anderson, RHP James Simmons, RHP Trevor Cahill
RHP Fauntino De LoSantos RHPHenry Rodriguez, RHP Joey Devine, RHP Santiago Casillo...
we've got a great surplus of Outfield and pitching talet, let's go for something we need. Or someone who actually could factor into our future.
Posted by: AriGoldisaG | May 21, 2008 at 01:15 PM
The ultimate foolishness in the baseball draft is too draft for
"organizational need" at the expense of passing up a player who grades higher! Just as a team can never have too much pitching, you cannot have too many good hitters.
And, a young bat can always be dealt to fill a need on the major league roster. Take the best player on the board for the first several rounds and you cannot go wrong. Drafting for perceived "need" at the expense of best player will nearly always backfire. Team needs change every season: players get hurt, don't develop, get traded, or digress.
Posted by: bernie | May 21, 2008 at 02:31 PM
I agree with Bernie. Some players don't develop, others can be used as trade bait and a few can change positions. If a batter like Smoak fell to my Nationals, I would be more than happy. Marrero might be a bit below-average in left field, but I would still rather have as many great bats on the field as possible.
Posted by: thehoagster07 | May 21, 2008 at 02:41 PM
Bernie and Hoagster,
I think drafting the best player is always a good practice, but needs to be tempered with organizational need.
Take the Rays and the 1st pick. They could take Pedro Alvarez. However 3B belongs to Longoria. 1B they have Pena signed long term. Sure, they can move Alvarez to the OF, but the glaring need at catcher still exists. The question is HOW MUCH BETTER is Pedro Alvarez than Buster Posey?
You draft the best player available, yes. But consider organizational need if several players are equal or nearly equally rated.
Drafting a player with the thought of trading them or somebody else to fill the original need is unwieldy at best. You don't get the player you necessarily want and if the other team sees you are in a 'need' position, then you might get screwed. If you want sugar, you go to the store and buy sugar. You don't buy milk and then try to trade the milk to your neighbor for sugar.
I think I would rather draft for organizational need than draft a player with the thought of trading him or another young player at a later date.
Back to the Rays. They don't need pitching in the 1st round. This works out because everything I have read has the 3 positional players rated highest.
Alvarez, Posey, or Beckham.
Alvarez might be the best, but to me, Posey or Beckham are better selections for the Rays. Posey in particular because he can quickly catch up to the other young talent they have.
The Delaware Bird mock draft of the first 5 picks would be:
1. Rays - Posey
2. Pirates - Beckham
3. Royals - Crow
4. Orioles - Alvarez
5. Giants - Matusz
Posted by: delaware_bird | May 21, 2008 at 03:42 PM
Well said delaware bird, that is exactly what I was trying to say.
Of course you don't take Shooter Hunt over Smoak just because of perceived needs if you have Smoak rated much higher than Hunt. At the same time, if you don't have much separating them then I think you have to consider going with needs.
Baseball drafts are a much bigger crap-shoot than football or basketball. Usually the difference in talent between a few different options at #9 overall is miniscule. None of these guys are a sure thing. Even the #1 overall pick this year won't be the elite "sure thing" talent like some of the past drafts (Justin Upton, etc.).
I realize this argument works both ways when talking about drafting the top talent versus need. But on a team like the Astros where the talent is already proven and unmovable (Berkman, Lee, Pence), a guy Smoak just doesn't make a lot of sense. Drafting a HS player like Hosmer is less problematic because of his development timeline. But for a team trying to win now and with the corner positions blocked, going for a college pitcher makes a lot more sense than a college hitter if you have them rated close. None of them are close to a sure thing.
I would make the exact same point about getting too stacked at a position and hoping to use those players as trade chips. Great in theory, but there is no guarantee other teams will bite at the price you are asking. Love the analogy. If you need sugar, go buy sugar. Who cares if the milk is on sale?
Taking organizational needs into account works when there isn't a lot of separation between the relative talent of the players. Doesn't work at all if you think one guys is heads-and-shoulders above everyone else available.
Posted by: mymrbig | May 21, 2008 at 03:58 PM
dalware bird you were correct in everything you said, but your top 5 picks I don't believe are correct. I think it'll be
1) Buster Posey
2) Pedro Alvarez
3) Aaron Crow
4) Justin Smoak
5) Tim Beckham
But you are absolutely correct in evrything you said about combining needs and best talent together.
Posted by: AriGoldisaG | May 21, 2008 at 04:53 PM
It sucks that ATL doesn't have a first round pick this year. Man, what I wouldn't give to have Smoak waiting in the wings for us.
Posted by: bravesfan91 | May 21, 2008 at 05:44 PM
The "best player available" method doesn't make sense for literally every team, I was moreso saying it would work best for the Nationals.
Posted by: thehoagster07 | May 21, 2008 at 06:25 PM
http://displacedastrofan.mlblogs.com/
Posted by: Drewsky | May 21, 2008 at 06:27 PM
The White sOx will not draft Gordon Beckham. They will go with Justin Smoak if available of Brett Wallace.
Posted by: ballerwhiteboy | May 21, 2008 at 08:02 PM
baller, I really hope you are correct, because I would LOVE to see Beckham fall to the A's. But if you look in the Sox system they are bare at essentially everything but pitching (Even that's a little skeptical) So they would need a postion player with the best overall talent. And Beckham will likely be there and he'll likely be the best talent on the board.
But I am all for having Williams pass him up.
Posted by: AriGoldisaG | May 21, 2008 at 08:07 PM
sorry to ruin your hopes AriGoldisaG but if the ChiSox passed on him he wouldn't get past Houston.
Posted by: Drewsky | May 21, 2008 at 09:00 PM
Just a quick evaluation to share with you guys from a well-respected former MLB
exec: "Based on all the factors that I’m aware of, Matusz would be my personal favorite if I was in the shoes of Tampa Bay scouting director R.J. Harrison. He isn’t as physical and athletic in his approach as Price, but his stuff is overwhelmingly good and his track record since he was a fourth-round pick out of an Arizona high school in 2005 is pretty flawless. An obvious comparison to the 6-foot-5, 200-pound Matusz would be Florida Marlins lefthander Andrew Miller, who many considered the top college pitcher in the pitching-loaded 2006 draft. Matusz grades out higher than Miller did at the same stage in most categories, with four potential plus big league pitches." David Rawnsley,
PerfectGame.com
Posted by: bringingit | May 21, 2008 at 09:03 PM
I agree with whiteboy but you can throw Alonso into the mix for the Sox.
Posted by: gogopalehose | May 21, 2008 at 09:20 PM
As far as the talk about Alvarez, I can't see anybody besides the Pirates or Giants ponying up the bucks Boras will look for, to take this kid early...
They both are desperate for a 3B and while he's not the answer now, he will be in two years, but if they feel that he won't, I could see Alvarez falling almost and I said ALMOST out of the 1st round, maybe 15-20, those are where teams, willing to break the bank with Boras, begin to appear that will take him.
I think any Boras client is going to be hating life come draft day, look at the writing on the wall... Unless a player is Uber-valuable, no team will touch him... Lohse, Patterson are extreme examples of this, but look at how they've treated Bonds, Piazza, Clemens, Wells, Lofton, etc.
I'm not saying they aren't good players, but they are all a little long in the tooth... HOWEVER, to not be good enough to be the 25th man on the roster for 1 of 30 teams?!
Management for all teams is taking an "I don't take sh*t from anyone..." stance and unless they player is unbelievably necessary totheir team philosophy or grand scheme, then no, they'll pass...
People passed on Kenny Rogers and on Alex, sure Alex got deals offered to him, but he would've had to refinance his Bentley and his Lamborghini for what they were offering him...
I think it was last year or the year before that a couple surprise drops in the first round were attributed to Boras being the agent for the player... A player like Alvarez will never make it past the top 10 payroll teams without being grabbed up, but he'll be a tougher pill to swallow because the agent.
As a Mariners fan, I don't care what we take, unless he's one of the top 10 players in the draft, his success comes down to the farm system he's in for the most part and as nice as it would be for a Tim Beckham or a Pedro Alvarez to fall to the Mariners at the 20th pick, I realize that most of our talent is found in Latin America/overseas or through FA.
The guys like Wlad Balentien, Jose Lopez, Yuni Betancourt, Felix Hernandez, Greg Halman, Rowland-Smith, Juan Ramirez, Luis Oliveros, Yung Chi Chen, Carlos Triunfel, etc. are all dominating the Mariners stats besides Ibanez and Beltre, Bedard, and Putz, so it tells me that what I'm looking for won't be found in the draft in most cases...
Personally, I would sacrifice this years 1st round draft pick for the league to sanction a ban on the Mariners trading for anybody else... Too many times they've got their ass kicked in a trade, I loved the Bedard deal because I think Adam Jones seems uninspiring as an offensive player and one guys quote, which I think applies to Jones, about the Twins CF who I believe to be far more exciting and talented.. "He has a box full of tools, but no keys to get into it."
Either they need to find a locksmith in Baltimore or this trade will go down as a great one for the Mariners and horrible for the Orioles! I suspect Bedard to have a long term deal in place with the Mariners by the end of the season, especially if they promise to only use Kenji as the catcher for him in the most obsurd situations.
My point is that Wlad wasn't sh*t 4 years ago and Jones was the future of the organization and in two weeks, Wlad will be better than Jones in every offensive category, so much for that 1st round pick! There are only questions awaiting our teams in this draft, not answers... There aren't any guys that will be able to impact a team right away or within a year, so it doesn't really matter who you take as long as they are the best available. You only look at position, age, etc. when it's a toss up like someone else said, otherwise look at this as building for your son's team.
Posted by: BaseballGuru | May 22, 2008 at 12:42 AM
Baseballguru,
You seem to imply that after 69 AB for Wlad and 155 AB for Jones, that you can judge one player being better than the other????
Concerning "every offensive category", Jones has more doubles, a higher OBP, and strikes out at a far less rate than Balentien. There are three categories, I do believe.
If you want to compare the two players, it is a better idea to compare stats from last year. Both played the majority of the year at AAA Tacoma.
Jones: .968 OPS, .586 SLG, .382 OBP, 25 HR.
Balentien: .871 OPS, .509 SLG, .362 OBP, 24 HR.
I would love to find more players like Adam Jones that are "uninspiring as an offensive player".
Posted by: delaware_bird | May 22, 2008 at 10:58 AM
Guru - I can pretty much guarantee you Alvarez will never see a day of 3B in the majors. He'll be a RF or 1B by the time he gets there. His defense at third makes Ryan Braun's look like Brooks Robinson. Absolute butcher out there. He only plays 3B at Vandy to keep his bat in the lineup.
Posted by: Brickhaus | May 22, 2008 at 01:39 PM
BaseballGuru- What a misnomer! The sad thing is that you actually believe all that garbage. Wlad's going to be better than Adam Jones?! Seattle got the better of the Bedard deal?! Glad you think so...because you're the ONLY ONE.
The general consensus so far as I've heard is that Jones is on the fast track to stardom. He's gotten better with every game and far from being lackadaisical, is regularly described as enthusiastic and passionate. He's a toolbox alright, but unlike Carlos Gomez (who the quote was directed at), the key is on the counter. Anyone who's watched an O's game this year knows as much. In two years I'll bet he's among the top center fielders in the game; a five tool stud who, teamed up with fellow five tooler Nick Markakis as well as either Luke Scott or Nolan Reimold, will compose one of the most exciting young outfields in the sport. Granted, I'm about as biased toward the O's as you are toward the M's, but as anyone who's chatted with me on this site knows, I at least a BIT objective. I don't throw praise around lightly and I'm fairly knowledgeable. Based solely on general thought around the game, there's little comparison; Jones is seen as the better young player by FAR. Wlad's got a big bat, but he'll never hit for average and he's going to kill you with K's. Don't get me wrong, he'll be alright- I expect him to make better contact than, say, Sexson, but it's not even a fair fight with Jones.
Furthermore, you seem to forget that there were FOUR other players involved in the Bedard deal. All George Sherrill has done is record 17 saves in 18 tries; good for second in baseball. Meanwhile Chris Tillman- already a top prospect- has made the jump into elite status with his performance this year as the youngest pitcher in Double A. Batters are hitting under .200, his ERA is around 2.80 and, for what it's worth, he's 5-0. Most scouts (notice I said MOST) think he'll be no less than a No. 2 in the majors. Throw in a solid relief prospect in Mickolio and a 20 year old power southpaw with upside in Tony Butler and...you think the MARINERS got the better of the deal?!!!!
Ridiculous. And that's coming from a huge Bedard fan. Obviously a lot can happen, but at this point, I just don't see how you can say that.
...unless you're one of those fans who can see no evil when it comes to their team. You DO seem to be fawning all over a group that has been pretty awful thus far, but I'll hold off on judgments. Maybe you just REALLY like Erik Bedard...
Posted by: milehigh78 | May 22, 2008 at 02:57 PM
As for the draft itself, I tend to agree with most of you in that you draft based on a COMBINATION of best player available and team need. If the difference between two players is seen to be negligible, there are other factors to consider. Need is the most important of these.
Say you're calling the shots for Milwaukee... If the two players at the top of your board are a pitcher and a left fielder and you rate them the same or close to, who are you going with? Obviously, the pitcher. If the left fielder is head and shoulders better in your book, however...well, you've got the Matt LaPorta situation from last year all over again. And screw it! You don't think they could get a poo-load for LaPorta right now?
Deleware Bird is right in that, you don't go to the store and buy milk if you need sugar...unless you're confident that the milk you're buying is going to wind up worth 10 bags of sugar. Then its profiteering!
You always want the absolute best player you can get, regardless of position. Need is secondary. A factor, sure, but still secondary.
Posted by: milehigh78 | May 22, 2008 at 03:11 PM
"Guru" stop praising the M's! You can give it a break until they get over .500 and when Bedard is healthy, until then the Bedard trade is by far favoring the O's.
Then your first comment about the only teams willing to pony up to get Alvarez you think are the Pirates and Giants. Yes they both will, but what about the O's? They spent 6 mil on Weiters last year you don't think they'd spend a little more the that (I know 2 mil) to get the best player in the draft? Damn you must be crazy. I'd love to see Alvarez fall to the Giants as a bay area fan, but no chance the O's pass him up.
Posted by: AriGoldisaG | May 22, 2008 at 04:09 PM
Agree with Ari on that one. And now, my newly revised first round...
1. TB- Buster Posey
2. PIT- Tim Beckham
3. KC- Eric Hosmer
4. BAL- Pedro Alvarez
5. SF- Gordon Beckham
6. FLA- Kyle Skipworth
7. CIN- Brian Matusz
8. CHI- Justin Smoak
9. WAS- Aaron Crow
10.HOU- Yonder Alonso
11.TEX- Shooter Hunt
12.OAK- Brett Wallace
13.STL- Christian Friedrich
14.MIN- Conor Gillaspie
15.LAD- Gerrit Gole
16.MIL- Brett Hunter
17.TOR- Brett Lawrie
18.NYM- Jason Castro
19.CHI- Zach Collier
20.SEA- Tim Melville
21.DET- Josh Fields
22.NYM- Aaron Hicks
23.SDG- Ike Davis
24.PHI- Ryan Perry
25.COL- Jake Odorizzi
26.ARI- Andrew Cashner
27.MIN- Anthony Hewitt
28.NYY- Ethan Martin
29.CLE- Dennis Raben
30.BOS- Reese Havens
Posted by: milehigh78 | May 22, 2008 at 04:48 PM
Not sure about No. 3 (well...I'm not sure about any of them, but...). Hosmer is a possibility, but I could also see Smoak (or even Crow, though the Royals seem to want a bat). He would almost certainly be cheaper than Hosmer and has a shorter timeline to the bigs.
Posted by: milehigh78 | May 22, 2008 at 04:51 PM
agree with you there on that stuff milehigh. But a couple things: I think the Royals take Crow to help build the best rotation ever built by the Royals, Giants will go with Hosmer, with the ChiSox taking Smoak, Nats take Kyle Long, with the Astros taking Wallace, and Beckham falling to the A's. (In a perfect world) And I realize this is incredibly optomistic for my boys, but incredibly posible. We just need the Chi Sox to pass and the Stros to pass on him.
2009 Opening Day Oakland A's SS/2B Gordan Beckham!!!
Posted by: AriGoldisaG | May 22, 2008 at 05:58 PM
The Royals won't pass on Pedro Alvarez if he is still there. I think the Pirates will take him, but if they don't, the Royals will. Under Dayton Moore, they're spending money. I think they would take the best player avalable who is Alvarez.
Posted by: Joe | May 22, 2008 at 07:34 PM
You may be right Joe. Still, he's very pricey for a small market team (though Moustakas wasn't cheap, so...) and isn't exactly an ideal fit and STOP RAINING ON MY PARADE!!! I WANT ALVAREZ!
OK, sorry about that.
Yeah, Alvarez ain't going to my O's, is he? Damn. Guess I gotta get myself pumped for the Gordon Beckham era...sorry Ari (don't blame me, blame Joe and his damned Royals. I voted for Pedro). Maybe we'll take Hosmer?! Think I could get excited about that. Tim Beckham? Maybe. I'll figure it out. Life will go on. Oh Pedro...why Pedro, why?
Posted by: milehigh78 | May 23, 2008 at 02:25 PM
This is how my boys get Beckham...
1) Buster Posey C - Rays
2) Pedro Alvarez 3B - Bucs
3) Tim Beckham SS - Royals
4) Eric Hosmer/Justin Smoak - O's
5) Which ever the o's don't pick - Giants
6) Kyle Skipworth C - Marlins
7) Brian Matusz LHP - Reds
8) Brett Wallace 1B - Chi Sox (Hey Kenny really digs this guy)
9) Yonder Alonso/Aaron Crow 1B/RHP
10) Which ever the Nats don't pick - Stros
11) Aaron Hicks/Shooter Hunt OF/RHP (isn't Hicks a pitcher too) Rangers
12) YAY!!!!!!!!!GORDAN BECKHAM!!!!!!!!! SS
I have a feeling that Billy Beane is going into this draft like he did in the Moneyball draft. 1 or 2 teams hold the pick too get his man. It WILL HAPPEN!
Posted by: AriGoldisaG | May 23, 2008 at 02:58 PM