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« Rosenthal's Latest: Victorino, Hatteberg, Paul Byrd | Main | Cardinals Eyeing College Pitcher With 13th Pick »
John Perrotto of the Beaver County Times chronicles the Pirates' recent draft blunders. So many wasted picks. Under different management, the Pirates could have David Wright, B.J. Upton, Carlos Quentin, Tim Lincecum, and Matt Wieters in the organization. Sounds like a fantasy team. Such hindsight cherry-picking is unfair, but the Pirates should have Upton and Wieters right now.
Anyway, the depressing trend of bad picks for the Pirates is likely to change this year. For the first time, the Bucs might give out a Major League contract to a draft pick. That pick would be Pedro Alvarez, who Perrotto believes the Pirates will take at #2. Rumblings do not indicate the Rays want Alvarez. Both Jonathan Mayo and Baseball America believe the Pirates will get their man.
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All it takes is one look at Van Benschoten's numbers in college to realize why the Pirates have been so inept.
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/V/john-vanbenschoten.shtml
Let's see, he was a spot starter/closer who was fairly good (not 8th pick overall good)...or...he was the top offensive player to come out of college along with some guy named Mark Teixeira. (By the way, I'm a Kent State grad, so the Van Benschoten topic is a sore one for me)
Posted by: grimace455 | May 20, 2008 at 11:25 AM
Here's to hoping that Perotto is correct on both fronts:
1). Pirates select Alvarez
2). Alvarez potentially is the 2009 opening day starter @ 3B.
Wither Neil Walker?
Posted by: Mick Kraut | May 20, 2008 at 11:26 AM
Damn... maybe we go after former Wieters High-School teammate Justin Smoak? Enough with the Matzus talk!
Posted by: Orioles13 | May 20, 2008 at 11:42 AM
C'mon Pirates,
We gave you Matt Morris, let Pedro fall to us at 5!
:)
Posted by: zito4cyyoung | May 20, 2008 at 12:07 PM
They have the best ballpark in baseball, it is great that they are starting to build a team to play in it.
Posted by: OmegaMan | May 20, 2008 at 12:29 PM
AT&T is better! :P
Posted by: zito4cyyoung | May 20, 2008 at 01:07 PM
Tim,
The Lincecum comment is EXTREMELY unfair. At the time, every single column, scout, writer and blogger praised the Pirates for not going cheap and taking arguably the best player in the draft.
Lincoln was coming off a season where he absolutely dominated, projected to a true ace and had a Cape season to rival any in history.
Then you look at what he could add as not only a dominant pitcher, but as a hitter.
Unfortunately, he blew out his elbow while Lincecum has turned into what everyone thought he would be. The jury is still out on Lincoln.
Upton, Wieters and the like are inexcusable mishaps on an organization going cheap. Lincoln is just an unfortunate circumstance to a bad thing happening to a good player
Posted by: usctrojans31 | May 20, 2008 at 01:10 PM
"AT&T is better! :P"
Have you been to both? :P
Posted by: ArodSucksAtLife | May 20, 2008 at 01:46 PM
At&t is tainted just by the guy that used to play LF there. :P
Posted by: OmegaMan | May 20, 2008 at 02:13 PM
That's what makes it better. Well, that and the fact that I can see it from my back door when it's not too foggy.
On Lincoln, I don't think you have a strong argument. Not picking Kershaw or Scherzer? Sure, that's an argument. Nobody was ever talking about those guys at #1 overall. But not picking Lincecum? That it has turned out to be a bad decision isn't the issue, it's that Lincoln or Morrow or Stubbs looked like worse bets the day of the draft. Lincoln had nice control numbers in college, but had been hittable until his senior year. Lincecum always walked too many, but had flashed K rates for three straight years at which even Lincoln's breakout senior year looked up.
I am happy to criticize my team's drafting, because it has often been pretty addlepated (Bumgarner, for all his virtues, should not have gone before Heyward, nor Fairley before Smoker or maybe Brackman, and Williams and Culberson leave me pretty cold). Take your lumps on Lincoln.
Posted by: wcw | May 20, 2008 at 02:41 PM
Please, Neal, do it. As far as Walker goes, if we get Alvarez, I'd move him across the diamond and get LaRoche the hell out of here. That or move him to the outfield once Bay and/or Nady are traded and let Steve Pearce move back to his natural position of 1B.
Posted by: LongSufferingBucsFan | May 20, 2008 at 03:32 PM
And on Brad Lincoln...he made his 1st start at Lo-A Hickory a couple days ago. He went 5, gave up 4 hits, 1 run, no walks, 3 K's. Still some hope there.
Posted by: LongSufferingBucsFan | May 20, 2008 at 03:36 PM
"C'mon Pirates,
We gave you Matt Morris, let Pedro fall to us at 5!
:)"
I like the giants (but more an A's fan) I can't remember where I read it, but I saw an article in which it said that with Alvarez's bonus demands he might slip quite a ways. And while I'd like him to fall to the A's (Absoluely No Chance) i could see him slipping to 4 or 5. But as a fan of Baseball and knowing how good Alvarez is I find it hard to believe that the Rays, Pirates, Royals, AND the O's passing on him to fall to the Giants.
Posted by: AriGoldisaG | May 20, 2008 at 04:21 PM
I don't get it. While the article clearly states hindsight is unfair, it proceeds to do so.
The truth is that if the players the Pirates picked turned out to be good, nobody would argue with the method or motive.
Moskos was an odd pick, but if the Pirates decided they wanted to save 1st round money to invest in 2-10 round over slot picks, that is hardly arguable.
Drafting IS a crap shoot. You won't always get it right. And when it is wrong, it is way wrong.
Oddly enough, where is the pat on the back for Andrew McCutchen?? Or also in 2005, Brent Lillebridge and Steve Pearce??
The Pirates have gone wrong more than right, obviously. The future of the team lies with McCutchen and Pearce (and perhaps McLouth and LaRoche) offensively and Gorzelanny for pitching.
Where are the other pitchers???? The team needs some pitching.
Either Aaron Crow or Brian Matusz would make sense for pitching or Alvarez, Beckham, or Posey for positional players.
Me? I always have a preference for pitching. I'd go with Matusz. There is no pitching on the farm ready to make an impact.
Posted by: delaware_bird | May 20, 2008 at 04:43 PM
"Pittsburgh has outperformed New York in that regard. The Pirates may drop a couple of spots, because a lot of guys (Tom Gorzelanny, Paul Maholm, etc.) won't qualify as prospects at that time next year. On the plus side, they did add Brad Lincoln, who I would have taken No. 1 overall in the draft." - Jim Callis
Now, let's take it to the numbers.
JUST looking at peripherals, nothing else we have the following.
Lincoln -
8.96 H/9
2.50 BB/9
8.54 K/9
11.46 BR/9
1.27 WHIP
Lincecum -
5.80 H/9
5.74 BB/9
12.83 K/9
11.53 BR/9
1.28 WHIP
It really comes down to preference. Do you want a player who is going to strike out a lot but also walk a lot? Or, do you want a player who is going to strike out plenty but walk few?
Nolan Ryan or Curt Schilling. Me? I'm taking Curt Schilling every single time.
Lincoln came off throwing mid 90's with a power curve and a solid change. Frankly, he looked like Mark Prior light. His mechanics were nearly flawless and promised durability.
Then you had Lincecum, and even smaller pitcher with absolutely horrible mechanics and most people used the closer word. Yeah, he was dominant, but there were a lot of questions about delivery, and there still are.
At the time, it was NOT a bad pick choosing Lincoln over Lincecum. The bad pick was choosing Morrow over Lincecum.
Posted by: usctrojans31 | May 20, 2008 at 04:53 PM
There is no way Neil Walker will factor into not taking Alvarez. Walker had no business being moved over to third base anyways, taking a bat that would've been well above average behind the plate and sticking it at third....well, we may as well have stuck with Wiggington. Moving Pearce to 3rd to let Paulino play full time (which was PBC's reasoning at the time) crushed his value and crushed any legitimate reason to draft him as high as we did. Chalk it up as yet another Management Mishap and draft Alvarez....please!
Posted by: bucs_lose_again | May 20, 2008 at 04:55 PM
Now, we're going off-topic, but: Schilling and Ryan? Please. Most likely both Lincoln and Lincecum flame out. They're young pitchers. One's already had TJ. The other walks too many, got skipped a turn for a tired arm last year and rested this spring for a groin. Start comparing them to first-ballot pitchers in a decade, maybe, not now.
As a fan of a team that (excepting Dick Tidrow and whoever else drafts and develops pitchers) mostly seems to be run by poo-throwing apes, I sympathize. This thread's about the Pirates. They can't go back in time and pick Miller, Kershaw Lincecum or Scherzer. Whom should they draft this year?
Posted by: wcw | May 20, 2008 at 06:39 PM
While I have a hard time believing that the Pirates will take Alvarez and his massive $$$ demands, I'm confident we won't see another Moskos-type pick.
The Bucs are in a position where they can, ostensibly, select the best player on their board, while surreptitiously avoiding the more absurd asking prices. I could see them taking Beckham if the Rays go with Posey, or with Smoak, Hosmer, or Matusz if Tampa takes Beckham.
Of course, they COULD bite the bullet with Alvarez, but it seems unnecessary; leading me to believe they'll go another direction.
It all comes down to just how far the new front office is willing to go to demonstrate how different they are from the last group. Can they afford to pay Alvarez monster dollars? Can they afford NOT to?
We're already beginning to see some chinks in the armor- today word came down that the club was looking at Beckham as well as Alvarez and the requisite 'a few others.' I think that as the draft draws closer, we'll hear more talk of how the team likes A FEW guys quite a bit and is REALLY struggling with the decision; more rumors regarding Beckham and maybe Matusz or Smoak. If they're going to pass on Alvarez, they're going to set it up ahead of time through the media. They learned from the Moskos debacle that you need to sell the punch you're pulling.
If I'm right, the Bucs will still get a nice young player; a potential star. It just won't be Alvarez. I think they'll go with a bat, but that's the extent of my foresight. Well...not quite:
1. TB- B. Posey
2. PIT- T. Beckham
3. KC- E. Hosmer
4. BAL- P. Alvarez
5. SF- G. Beckham
6. FLA- K. Skipworth
7. CIN- B. Matusz
8. CHW- J. Smoak
9. WAS- A. Crow
10 HOU- Y. Alonso
One last note: I am an O's fan, which certainly could be affecting my outlook. I DO think the Pirates would be wise to pick Alvarez and acknowledge the possibility. I just don't see it happening. We'll find out...
Posted by: milehigh78 | May 22, 2008 at 02:03 PM
Actually, Tim Lincecum's mechanics are extremely efficient. He has great timing and truly uses his entire body to pitch. He also does not lock his knee when he lands which should save him from hip and knee injuries. There is only one questionable thing about his delivery and that is the "Inverted L" his arm makes at one point during his delivery. The thing that seems to lessen the seriousness of this is that it does not throw his timing off even a little bit. I think he will be fine and his mechanics are definitely not horrible. There is a reason that little runt can throw in the mid to high 90's and that is because his mechanics are extremely efficient. He gets his power from his legs, hips and core and not from his arm. His arm is just along for the ride and his timing is extremely good.
For pitchers who have the inverted L plus horrible mechanics and timing, see BJ Ryan who probably has the worst mechanics in baseball. He'll be done sooner than later unless he makes some changes to his delivery. His mechanics are even worse than Mark Prior and that's hard to do.
Posted by: Sesshomaru | May 22, 2008 at 04:33 PM