Sheets To Test Free Agency

"He's made all his starts in '08 as we near the halfway point."

I might be wrong, but I could swear that he was forced to miss one or two start earlier in the season for some reason.

I can almost guantantee that the Braves will atleast show interest in the right hander IF they let Teixeira walk after this season (if he's not traded beforehand). Hudson is a good pitcher, but I think he's better suited for the #2 role (which isn't a bad thing).

And if the price is in the 40-50 million range and he's looking for atleast 3-4 years, I think the Braves would have more than enough to match that offer.

Sheets missed one start this year.

I am a Cubs fan, but I hope for the Brewers' sake that they don't blow their budget on Sheets. I have all the respect in the world for the Brewers organization. They've been making solid personnel moves (Gagne excepted) and keeping a good young core intact. As a Cubs fan who had to watch his team pin their hopes on chronically injured pitchers for many years, I hate to see any other team do the same, even a division rival.

If I were a Brewers fan, the final straw would have been the end of last year, when my "ace" couldn't take the hill at the end of a close pennant race because his poor wittle finger hurt. Yet, shockingly, he's amazingly healthy in his contract year.

Brewers fans, let him go and sign someone like Garland or Livan Hernandez. The numbers aren't as great, but at least they'll take the ball every fifth day while keeping you in the ball game.

Sheets is a less frightening Rich Harden with all of the talent. How much do you pay someone to be a #1-#2 but who only makes 25 starts?

Sheets missed an early start with triceps soreness, I believe.

three-year, $47MM deal----

that is shockingly low. Try 5 years 80 million. If he was 3 years $47, I would be sure Milwaukee could swing that. In fact, I bet there offer is close to just that number.

Sheets is a legit #1. He will get paid.

"Brewers fans, let him go and sign someone like Garland or Livan Hernandez."

Yeah right. I would much rather spend the $17 million per year to keep Sheets than the $12-13 million it would take for Garland. We already have an expensive innings eater in our rotation. Even if Sheets only gives 150 innings it's still well above average production, you can fill the final 50 innings with slightly below league average production and you're still getting more value than you would with someone like Garland.

Livan Hernandez just sucks. Why the hell would the Brewers even think about signing that washed up scrub?

And yeah, if Sheets is available for a Jason Schmidt type contract me thinks he would already be inked to a new deal. Unfortunately, he's not signing for only three years.

So with this news, is it more likely that the Brewers shop him? They are one of the hotter teams right now, so I suppose they ride him and then collect arbitration picks in the offseason...

"three-year, $47MM deal----

that is shockingly low. Try 5 years 80 million. If he was 3 years $47, I would be sure Milwaukee could swing that. In fact, I bet there offer is close to just that number"

There is a chance that Sheets would prefer a 3 year deal so that he can re-up at 33 instead of 35. That 2 year difference could cost him some big dollars down the road. Just a possibility.

He won't get 5 years cause of injury history, but he'll get a higher AAV because of it. 4 years, 18 million. 4/72

At that price I'd love to see the sox pursue Sheets, assuming internal options are no longer viable.

I doubt he signs for that many dollars or years.

as much as my milwaukee born friend doesnt like it, sheets is history in beertown. im guessing he gets 4-6 years and 15-19 million per. everyone here knows he cant stay healthy but when he is he is a top ten pitcher in all of baseball. one of the big market teams are going to make him a ridiculous offer. personally i might even prefer him over sabathia. sabathia is a horse and fairly consistent but sheets on a good day is the better pitcher. this guy has been lights out even since his us olympic team days. it would be a bad move for a team like the brewers who already have payroll limitations to sign him but a team that has money to burn could afford the risk. yankees, dodgers, red sox, these are all very likely possibilities. if burnett got 5 years 55 million a few years ago then why wouldnt sheets get more? sheets is way better and the market is booming.

I could see the Cardinals getting in on this actually. They narrowly missed Schmidt at those dollars, thankfully.

I don't know if it's a great idea, but getting an ace-level pitcher (when he's on the mound) for a 3-year deal is something that's going to be hard for teams to pass up. Which will drive up the price or the AAV of course.

The Cardinals have something like $36M coming off the books next year. If you lined Sheets up with Wainwright and hopefully a healthy Carpenter, that would look pretty good. Wellemeyer and Pineiro are under contract, but you also have guys like Garcia and Boggs (possibly Mortensen) for the back end as well.

Find a way to upgrade at least one of the middle infield spots (Mark Ellis, a trade etc) and things look a lot better than they did going into this season.

I got to think Sheets will command more than 3 years if he wants it.

nrmax, on your comments, it's possible he signs a longer deal with an opt out clause after 3 years. Very popular nowadays.

I'd love him on my team right now, but any team that goes more than three years on Sheets will end up disappointed. Then again, you can say that about 95% of FA pitchers

There's just nothing at all in his track record that suggests he will string together 3-4 healthy seasons.

Joelcards, I don't really see how anyone could prefer Sheets to Sabathia. Sure CC has weight concerns, but he is a horse. Never a year under 28 starts in six complete seasons, plus he's two years younger than Sheets, and his K rate has been climbing since 2004 while Sheets' has been dropping

Even for the same cost, I think every team in the MLB would prefer Sabathia. He's an incredibly safer projection for 30 starts

My bad on the "made all his starts" comment.

I have no idea whether Sheets would do a three-year deal, I just tossing a number out there that felt reasonable.

I just can't see the market going crazy for Sheets. It doesn't seem that the market was booming last offseason, just ask Kyle Lohse. Silva got paid but then again Bavasi won't be around this time to hand out stupid contracts, and perhaps Ned Colletti has learned his lesson. There is too much evidence on guys like Sheets for any team to give him more than 3 years. I could see a team getting desperate and going 4 years but I can't see anyone giving him anything beyond that.

Mark Prior, Jason Schmidt, AJ Burnett, Rich Harden etc etc... Ben Sheets fits right in. Caveat Emptor.

4 years? I wouldn't give sheets a hair more than 3 and I would work for 2.

Whatever team picks him up I think is going to have a similar experience to Pavano on the Yankees.

I (sadly) think the red sox may end up signing him as a schilling replacement. but i hope not.

It has been stated that there is nothing in his track record to suggest he can stay healthy...that is true for the past 3 seasons, but I don't think he missed a start in his first four years in MLB.

what about the mets? i know they signed santana but they wont have orlando desabled list hernandez, pedro wont be there and oliver perez plus guys like alou and delgado.

This sucks.

Sheets is a LEGIT ACE and thats exactly what a brewers team needs in order to contend for a championship in the next few years, and sheets would definately be a centerpiece of that. Even with good young pitchers like gallardo and parra, the way sheets is pitching this year is practically unreplaceable.

This year sheets is 9-1 with an era sub 3.00 (i think). Right now, there are really three pitchers in the CY young watch in the NL. Sheets, Volquez, and Webb who is falling off the table. IF sheets wins the Cy young, hes going to get paid a TON.

The thing that this tells you about ben sheets is hes not looking to win, all he cares about is the money. Milwaukee is one of the youngest most talented teams in the MLB. If you dont tink the brewers are going to go deep into the playoffs in the next 4-5 years (thats not saying this year), then you dont know much about baseball. Why would sheets leave all of this to see if he can snag a few extra bucks. Hes still great in milwaukee, but m starting to9 question his passion for the game, if he really cares about winning and competing or f he only worries about getting paid.

So many teams are going to the “no SP deals over 4 years” stance that I imagine there are going to be very few given out going forward. Sheets, with his injury history, will most likely have an incentive laden deal which might include obtainable options per IP or something, but a base deal might not go over 4 no matter what he does this season…

darkstar,

I agree about the "no SP deals over 4 years" but I also think for certain front line pitchers (Sheets being one of them in a weak free agent crop), teams will have to compete with other teams and eventually the yearly salary aspect will reach it's ceiling and years will come into play.

For example's sake, if the Yankees are offering him 4 yrs/$17M per. I wouldn't be surprised to see another team chime in with 5 yrs/$16M to try to counter it and convince him to sign with them.

Jza,

Yeah buddy, completely hear what you are saying; and I can easily be wrong just the same ~ but I personally just don’t think it will be easy for him to get 5+.

The things I would point to would included first that 4Year cutoff thing, and the fact that I don’t think the market is going to really be as weak as you I guess. There are actually going to be quite a few SP1-SP3 guys available off the market, with quite a few of them being older and only 1-2 YR rental type deals (well based on where it stands right now atleast.) Why take the 5+ year risk when you can rent one for a year or two and see if you will compete longterm in the newer, seemingly more balanced MLB, where some teams are finding it easy to rise and fall fairly quickly. Then there are a couple 1-2SP types which would be available in trade added onto it as well (Young, Kaz, etc). All the while, some SPs didn’t receive nearly the interest they anticipated last season because more and more teams are choosing to go with youngsters in the rotation instead. Plus, we seem to be experiencing an alarming trend of younger starters basically imploding (Willis, Hill, Arroyo, Snell, etc…). Shoot, and then even Boston and NY are a bit more worried about the 4+ thing at this point as well…

good topic and good posts. to the one about the cardinals getting sheets, i like that idea but i just dont see the cards winning a bidding war. they have big money off the books and your right they need one pitcher but im thinking expensive shortdtop, cheaper pitcher. dave duncan should be making 10 million a year because he saves us double that.

as for my comment about how sheets might be better than sabathia, i didnt say hes better or that i would prefer him. i think for the right team(big payroll) he would be a better signing. sabathia is a horse and consistent but once again on a good day sheets is the better pitcher. a low budget team can afford to gamble a lot less than say the yankees. for example the dodgers signed schmidt, he hasnt done anything, and their pitching hasnt really missed much(they just cant hit).

the thing is guys it only takes one team to offer monopoly money to him. silva got 4/48 million. did anyone really think he would get that? the only thing silva has ever done has been consistently average. marquis got 3/21 recently. he had an era over 6 the year before he signed. what?

and one last thing. who r u guys to judge him because he wants as much money as he can get. one guy says hes just trying to get "a couple exta bucks". by a couple extra bucks u mean an additional 15 or 20 million? nobody and i mean nobody should rip a guy for trying to get as much money as he can. this is a business and teams r trying to screw them as well. good for sheets, or should i say uncle sheets(?).

I agree that I don't see it happening, but the Jason Schmidt part of the original post got me thinking for obvious reasons.

There isn't really a shortstop I'd want to give big money to. There also isn't really another hole on the team. Rasmus, Ludwick and Ankiel in the outfield. Molina, Pujols and Glaus. Second base is the position easily upgraded the cheapest. I think Mark Ellis would be undervalued on the market.

I can't see them doing both, and out of all the available options I think that Ryan/(Barden maybe) and Ellis is better than Furcal or whoever and Miles/Ryan/Kennedy.

A trade would be nice, but it's hard to even speculate until you see how some things shake out the rest of this year in the majors and minors. Maybe somehow buy low on Greene or Lillibridge? Who knows.

The other options are either not much of an upgrade or are named Sabathia and going to get way too much in terms of money and years.

Another thing. Why does Dave only help trash heap pitchers? If he can help Sheets as well, then that's great too. He's already outstanding when on the mound.

I like the post calling Sheets a lower risk version of Harden. It is spot on. Other than getting his ass handed to him by the Dodgers, Sheets has been absolutely lights out this year. I don't see why he isn't worth at least what Schmidt got, even considering the risk.

"Livan Hernandez just sucks. Why the hell would the Brewers even think about signing that washed up scrub?"

Livan gets outs and does it cheap. He is no ace, but he is still a legit 4-5 starter who comes at the price of a middling setup man.

that is interesting about duncan and sheets. maybe he could make him better but hes already so good i dont know. man sheets sure would look good in a cards uni. as for second and short thats absolutely where talent is needed. i have mixed feelings on ellis. on one hannd he has been producing in that big ballpark for a few years now. on the other hand he has only been good for a couple of years and im not sure hes a lot better than kennedy. as for greene now thats a guy we need. dude plays good defense and hits for power, even at petco. we coul give up reyes/duncan and maybe even an anderson or a young starter like garcia or boggs. he would be worth it. as for furcal im not sure why u dont like him more. im afraid he will be crazy expensive but thats an awesome leadoff hitter there. he steals bases and also plays good defense. if we were going to spend a ton on one person i would like furcal, sheets, and maybe burnett in that order. they have the money for one big name.

Furcal has a career 96 OPS+ and his defense is overrated. I also think he'll get big money, especially if he finishes with anything close to the gaudy numbers he's put up in limited time this year.

I'm fairly certain Ryan is a good ten run better on defense, and Barden has an .830 OPS for Memphis right now and is playing good defense. I just don't see it as a huge upgrade.

Ellis could fall off a cliff like Kennedy, but he's also perhaps the best non-Utley 2B out there and not a lot of people realize it. He's a +20 defender and once you park adjust his numbers he's a well above average hitting second baseman. According to the first post here right now though, Beane might now let him get away.

Khalil's road numbers are really solid, but as an extreme fly ball hitter he's a bad fit for Petco. The Cardinals Padres might be able to come to terms on something mutually beneficial. Reyes spring to mind as a guy that would benefit from that park as well (moreso than a typical pitcher). Of course it would quite a bit more than that I would think like you note. Hopefully Duncan picks it up, both for this year and for trade reasons. There's no room for him.

ok well as for ellis it sounds like thats a moot point. when the player tells the agent to make a deal it usually gets done. as for furcal his defense is a little overrated but his arm is a cannon. whereas i like ryan as a defender, im not sure hes better than furcal. i certainly wouldnt mind seeing ryan at short but between short and second i wish someone could hit for power or steal a lot. ryan could get the steals so that could work. and for greene i think we both like him. id do a 4 for 1 for him. ive seen him o tv and in person and hes good(not to mention farely young and cheap). trade for greene and sign a quality pitcher like sheets, burnett, or maybe even resign lohse for the right price and thats a ballclub.

I expect the Red Sox to make a serious push for Sheets. I don't think it's neccesary with all the dept they have pitching already, but Theo has been trying to acquire Sheets for years and this would be his best chance. However, the Red Sox probably won't give him the long term because of his injury history. As we have seen in the past with situations like Pedro Martinez the Sox wouldn't give Pedro the ammount of years he wanted. We see now that the Red Sox made the right move. So Sheets probably will only get an offer of 4 years with the Red Sox if he is lucky.

I want a rotation of Sheets, Harden, Burnett, Prior, ... Pavano?