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High Price For Xavier Nady
According to ESPN's Buster Olney:
The asking price for Xavier Nady is considered to be extraordinarily high right now, and rival executives have a sense that the Pirates are not going to lower their demands for the corner outfielder before the trade deadline. Nady will be arbitration-eligible this winter.
Nady, 29, is hitting .321/.377/.525 in 337 plate appearances this year despite multiple nagging injuries. Nady is under team control through '09; he'll go through the arbitration process one more time and could earn $6MM or more next year. That's valuable - the free agent market for right fielders is weak.
Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette says the Yankees, Mets, Rays, and Braves have at least some interest in Nady. He's still more likely to be dealt than Jason Bay.
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I think the Pirates are taking a decent approach here. Teams seem to be acting like they are trading for Xavier Nady circa-2006. But he has shown real progress the last couple years.
His 7.3 BB% is a career high.
His 16.7 K% is a career low.
His 13.5% HR/FB is in line with his 13.0% career average.
The only number that strikes me as fluky is his .351 BABIP (fangraphs says he has .355, but they do not include his 3 sac flies). Even then his BABIP is not inflated by lucky ground balls, but rather by his 26.8% line drives. The line drive rate might be unsustainable, but he was at 21.3% last year.
Even if his BABIP regressed to .318 (his career BABIP is .316, do this by subtracting 8 singles), his overall line would still be very good: .295/.353/.498
For perspective:
.295/.353/.498 - Xavier Nady
.275/.348/.513 - Evan Longoria
.302/.351/.547 - Carlos Lee
.306/.372/.508 - Derrek Lee
.289/.327/.504 - Corey Hart
.307/.376/.490 - Magglio Ordonez
So even docking him for a high BABIP (which may or may not be lucky, depending on his ability to keep hitting line drives), he is in some very good company offensively. Add in the fact that he is under team control through 2009 (albeit arbitration) and that he can play LF, RF, or 1B, I think the Pirates are right to set the bar pretty high.
He will probably be a Type A player after 2009 (meaning the acquiring team would probably get some draft picks). Plus, his home ballpark is tough on righties and has held down his SLG some.
Posted by: mymrbig | July 16, 2008 at 11:31 AM
Nady and Marte for IPK, tobata, and marquez
Posted by: yankees2727 | July 16, 2008 at 11:55 AM
How about Nady and Marte for Kennedy, Jackson, Montero...
Also, i am curious from Yankee nation... what if anything have you heard on Andrew Brackman?
Posted by: Schnoah | July 16, 2008 at 12:40 PM
I could be wrong, but Brackman is rehabbing from a Tommy John surgery and is out until mid 2009.
Posted by: NYCBaseball | July 16, 2008 at 12:52 PM
I don't think they would include Jackson though, he could be in CF next year.
Posted by: NYCBaseball | July 16, 2008 at 12:53 PM
so Brackman is out for 2.5 years with TJ i know when he was drafted he was having the surgery, but that puts him out 2.5 years... that cant be right... I figured that he would be back right around now. This would put him around 13months.
Posted by: Schnoah | July 16, 2008 at 12:56 PM
my goodness, get what you can now Pirates. Push up the price, but then do what you've got to do to make the deal. Nady is at his absolute apex of his value right now and here is why:
2005-2007
Pre-break: .275/.332/.499 OPS of .831.
Post-break: .273/.328/.405 OPS of .733.
Averaging a 98 point drop over the last three seasons.
Last year he put up numbers not far below this year's pre-break: .291/.344/.504 An OPS of .848.
Post-break: .255/.303/.425 .728 OPS.
120 point drop in the second half.
He has not OPSed over 800 in a second half since his rookie year, when he did 830 over only 52 ABs.
He might have grown as a player, this .902 OPS first half may not be a fluke. But I will bet that he will not OPS much over 800 in the second half, if that.
Sell high.
Posted by: The Goche | July 16, 2008 at 03:29 PM
We're not privy to the trade talks but I would be really curious what GMs mean by an "extraordinarily high" asking price for Nady.
I truly think GMs are so used to stealing players off the Pirates for a handful of magic beans that when Huntington actually asks for a real legit prospect, they're shocked.
I do agree Nady needs to be traded either now or this off-season at the latest. Hoping he replicates this year's performance next season is a HUGE gamble with his injury history.
Regarding Marte-Yankees talk, what Yankee fans need to know is that Marte actually has an option for next year. The Pirates or Rays wouldn't pick it up because they're too cheap to pay a reliever $8 million but to NY that's chump change.
So if you get him, you get him this year and all of next.
I think Kennedy-Marte would be an automatic deal. Marte-Tabata probably wouldn't. Maybe Marte for Tabata/Betances.
I still think the Rays will get one or both of them though.
Posted by: cactusbix | July 16, 2008 at 05:11 PM
First off cactus... make sure you know from what you speak first.
Marte has a club option for 6M next season. If the Pirates cant get what they see as value (2 first round talent) for him then they hold onto him.
He then gets his option declined and the Pirates offer him arbitration, which would be around 4-5M if he accepts it, Pirates get Marte for another year, which then they can trade him (again for 2 first round talent) or they get the 2 picks in the following draft.
Rays if they were to acquire Marte would be doing the same thing. They could give up a little more to get him, seeing as they would flip him for draft picks which would instantly restock what they lost from the deal with the Pirates.
Posted by: Schnoah | July 16, 2008 at 05:26 PM
Schnoah, perhaps you should follow your own advice.
Marte will not be on the Pirates next year. His option for next year will be declined. The Pirates will not pay a reliever $6 million.
They will only offer him arbitration in order to get draft pick compensation for him. That's how MLB rules work. Perhaps you should review them before posting your ill-informed opinions.
Marte will never in a million years accept the Pirates arbitration offer because why would he take a $4 million ruling when he could get more on the open maket? Think before you speak.
If the Yankees get him, they can excercise his option and keep him next year because they can afford to pay a reliever $6 million.
The Rays are cheap. They won't pay his option either. So if they trade for him, they're likely renting him for the season and then getting the draft picks in next year's draft.
Now, what part of this is hard to understand?
Posted by: cactusbix | July 16, 2008 at 06:52 PM
Cactusbix...No offense but I think you just said the same thing Schnoah said. They will offer him arbitration to get draft picks but when you do that there is always the risk that the player will accept, which would represent the worse case scenario for the Pirates which isn't that bad. I think that's all Schnoah was trying to say; albeit a little harshly. I do agree with you on the Yanks, a Marte - Kennedy gets it done. Tabata's stock is done and would require another 2nd tier prospect with some upside. I don't think Marte goes to the Rays unless it's a package deal with Nady. I'm also tired of hearing about Nady's second half splits. He was hurt (again) in the 2nd of half of 06 and 07. He had a new off season training porgram this year and has stayed relatively healthy. His overall numbers have improved every year since 2005. His splits against lefties this year are as good against righties so he's proved once and for all he's a starter and not a platoon player. Truth is Nady could have very easily been an All-Star this year and really deserved it.
Posted by: Slick | July 16, 2008 at 07:08 PM
Actually cactus, all Pittsburgh has to do is offer arbitration and they get the picks. I think Marte is risky to go this route with. I think a lot of teams will back off signing him as a free agent knowing they'll lose a first round pick or second round if the team is picking 1-15.
But Marte accepting arbitration has nothing to do with the Pirates getting the picks.
Posted by: melmann | July 16, 2008 at 07:08 PM
That's the great thing about football. Everybody has the same amount of money to spend regardless of market size. The Pirates problems run deeper than that. They haven't been willing to spend the money to put a competetive organization together. I'm not convinced they have yet, despite the new Latin America push and the better draft. Time will tell, but regardless, there is some things in baseball that need to be addressed and the playing field needs to be more level. The Yankees can spend 200 million plus on payroll and the majority of teams can't even come close to that, not just the Pirates.
The Pirates getting compensation for a Marte is just one of those things that tries to level the field. It's not enough but it'll have to do. And the Pirates only get a first round pick if he signs with a team that picks 16 to 30. If the team picks 1 to 15, they get a second rounder and a sandwich pick, if it's the former, they get the teams first and a sandwich pick.
Posted by: melmann | July 17, 2008 at 09:57 AM