Jason Bay Rumors Debunked

NH should hold on to Marte unless someone offers two quality (whatever that means) prospects.

Marte will be worth 2 first round picks leaving as a FA so anything less than that wouldnt make a whole lot of sense.

I think there is too much thought on keeping a player (like Marte) and just waiting on the 2 draft picks. Its one thing when your in a playoff race like the Brewers and getting the 2 picks can balance out trading a top prospect like LaPorta. But when your not in the playoff race waiting on draft picks is a bit of a risky proposition.

1. the players (even college players) are going to be 2 to 4 years away as they wont' be a part of the org until at least June 09 and more likely not till mid august when the deadline is. Compare that to what you might be receiving, prospects that at least one could be ready right away or by next spring training.

2. You have to sign these players, for a late first round pick and a supplemental first round pick your talking about at least a $2.5 million dollar committment. The players you will be receiving will be making likely league minimum.

3. Drafting is a much more inexact science, and high school and college players are less likely to reach their full potential. Compared to the AA and AAA players you may get in return, who are going to be more likely to hit their ceilings.

4. Everyone talks about how it is "2 first round picks", it is not you can't predict that now. That is only the case if the team doesn't have one of the 15 worst records. Last year the Brewers had 2 Type A relievers and they signed with the Reds and White Sox, meaning the picks they got from the clubs were in the second round 53 and 54 overall, still good picks but 35 picks later than had the Mets and Cubs signed their pitchers. Also if the club that signs Marte signs another top free agent, like a Sabathia, Tex or Sheets then that clubs first eligible pick would be used as compensation for them and the Pirates would have to wait until the next round.

In my opinion the draft compensation is a great safety net, esp. if your in a playoff race but should only be used as a last resort.

"The radio networks in Pittsburgh are saying that the Mets are offering Fernando Martinez for Bay. Has anyone seen this rumor elsewhere?"

They got that off ESPN Radio. I was listening to Mike & Mike this morning and they had some baseball anaylyst (Verducci I think) on and he said the Mets are desperate to win this year and very much want Bay.

I don't see this happening. For one, Huntington said he wants multiple top tier prospects for Bay. The Mets have ONE.

For two, I'm not even that enamored with Martinez. He's all potential but his minor league stats so far aren't anything special.

For three, the Pirates need pitching. They have 3-4 decent outfield prospects in the system. They have ZERO pitching prospects. Trading your best player for a blue-chip (arguably) OF and a couple mediocre pitching prospects isn't going to help them in the long run.

Steve0, you make some excellent points. I'm not sure the Pirates' brass can keep selling a 3-5 year rebuilding plan to their fans. They need guys they can help them next year and they certainly have quality players to use as trade bait. If they screw this up, they'll set the organization back another 3-4 years.

I live in NYC and haven't heard about the Mets interest in Bay (I read the Daily News and listen to WFAN). In fact, it appears that Omar is very content that Church and Pagan will be coming back soon. Maybe Omar is being coy, but now that doctors have said Church's headaches were NOT concussion related, he could be back in the lineup soon.