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By Tim Dierkes [July 9, 2008 at 9:57am CST]
The Phillies-Erik Bedard situation is an intriguing one. The details:
- As you know, the Phillies have had longstanding interest in the lefty. Bedard recently appeared on a Philadelphia radio show, an odd choice given that he avoids the Seattle media.
- Possible conflict of interest: what if Pat Gillick trades a bevy of prospects to the Mariners for Bedard, and then gets a high-ranking position with the Ms in '09?
- Will Carroll notes that Rich Harden, A.J. Burnett, Randy Wolf, and Bedard all carry injury risk. However, the Phillies do not seem concerned about Bedard's health. He says Gillick wants Bedard at a discount, however. Bedard has been shut down until after the All-Star break to recover from nagging injuries.
- I imagine Bedard would command a package similar to the one the A's got for Harden. Both pitchers have ace potential and injury risk and are controlled through '09. The situations do differ, though - Bedard is less risky than Harden, and the Cubs deal was complicated by adding a good pitcher in Chad Gaudin. Anyway, I think the Phillies could pull off a Bedard deal if centered around a healthy Carlos Carrasco.
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Phillies are dead in the water right now. I think they have to make this acquisition if it is feasible.
If they do give up Carrasco, a better prospect than the centerpiece of the Cubs deal for Harden, then anything else added in the deal had better be filler. They could also use Willie Bloomquist back to take Taguchi's role
They should also let Amaro Jr. negotiate this deal to avoid any potential serious conflicts of interest
Posted by: wayne gomes | July 09, 2008 at 10:21 AM
I've enjoyed finally having some sort of farm system. Please, Pat, don't make this trade. Bedard's had one year as an ace and I don't want to wait another million years to have something that resembles a farm system.
Posted by: JohnKruksWaistLine | July 09, 2008 at 10:26 AM
At the same time, this team is doing nothing with the current rotation. It's a non-contender with Hamels-Kendrick-Moyer-Eaton-Happ.
Carrasco is exactly the type of young, homegrown pitching talent that successful teams develop, but he probably won't be ready until 2010. You get an additional year of Bedard and then likely some good comp picks if he leaves.
If they do give up Carlos, then no Marson, no Cardenas, no Golson. Jason Donald would be a solid prospect blocked by Rollins, Josh Outman decent LH arm in AA, Travis D'Arnaud really young C prospect.
Maybe they can even pawn off Eaton's contract for that of Batista or Johjima (whose is bad deal a year longer, but Ruiz isn't getting it done)
Posted by: wayne gomes | July 09, 2008 at 10:33 AM
If I'm the Phils, I offer a deal centered on Carrasco and Golson (who I'd be willing to give up while he has some value right now). With them and maybe a low-level prospect, the Mariners would have to be interested.
Whatever the case, Bavasi has to realize that he's not going to get back the value the M's gave up for Bedard. It simply isn't going to happen.
Posted by: PhillyFriar | July 09, 2008 at 10:35 AM
The hurdle to the deal would be that Bedard is shut down right now...the interim GM has plenty more opportunities to shop him at higher value if he has a great second half or great first half next year
Posted by: wayne gomes | July 09, 2008 at 10:37 AM
yeah when was the last time a phillies prospect not named carrasco was talked about? it has to be one of the worst systems in baseball.
as for the phillies i dont think they will ever win. that ballpark is a joke. ankiel hit a popup yesterday and it went over the fence. what that ballpark does is inflate hitters stats which in turn inflates the phillies payroll. now the phillies r paying utley, burrell, rollins, and soon to be howard all this money when they arent as good as the numbers show. the astros have the same problem, they were just masking it for a few years with oswalt, pettitte, and clemens. what the phillies need to do is sign free agent hitters from other teams. the new hitters would certainly enjoy it. after that pay cole hamels because he is great and go sign 2 more pitchers. guys with good heads on their shoulders that wont fold while pitching in that ballpark. maybe then they win.
Posted by: Joelcards | July 09, 2008 at 10:38 AM
holy crap i say that and all these philly fans show up naming prospects. still its gotts be bottom 5 at least.
Posted by: Joelcards | July 09, 2008 at 10:41 AM
I thought CC was supposed to be ready next year? I guess if it was him and a mid or low level prospect, and that's it, I'd be okay with it. And if Bedard walks, I'm not all that confident in what the FO would do with the comp picks.
If they were to get Johjima wouldn't he be blocking Marson within the next two years?
I don't think Bedard goes under the "great" category when talking about pitchers and I don't want us to lose some vomit-inducing amount.
Posted by: JohnKruksWaistLine | July 09, 2008 at 10:42 AM
The system, while not great, isn't bottom five. I think it might be in the bottom third still though.
The ballpark may inflate numbers but Utley and Rollins are the real deal. Burrell's having a better year than he usually does but he's put up good numbers the length of his contract. And Howard...I don't know what he is yet.
Posted by: JohnKruksWaistLine | July 09, 2008 at 10:45 AM
That's true about Marson, but Lou's still only 21. He's objectively a long shot to be ready at the start of next season. 2010, I'd think he has the job if he stays on his current course. Johjima addition would be less about him and more about getting rid of Eaton, ASAP. Plus his line last year was pretty decent, some pop and 46% CS rate
Carrasco could be on track for 2009. I'm no expert, just speculating from seeing his performance in AA. He's not putting up slam dunk, "I'm too good to say here" numbers right now
Posted by: wayne gomes | July 09, 2008 at 10:47 AM
*Phils Pharm system isn't as bad as it used to be, but most of the "talent" is in AA or below. Not exactly "major league ready".
*CC will be ready next year and some say he's worth a call up now(not sure I agree there).
*I don't like the Phils' park, but some of those guys stats were very close in their road/home splits last year. The dimensions aren't great, but it's the wind that's the problem.
*They'll have better luck trading for pitchers or bringing them up from the minors b/c FA pitchers will have to be overpaid b/c of the stadium. If you're a ground ball pitcher, it's not that bad.
Posted by: Bedrosian's Beard | July 09, 2008 at 10:50 AM
i like both utley and rollins, i just think they r overrated. utleys the best 2b in the league but i still think hes overrated(and overpaid). burrell is lazy. hes kind of a poor mans adam dunn. and well at leat howard is cheap the next few years. that statline of his is quite interesting. the phils need to stop paying for offense and start paying pitching. if they were to sign offensive players cheap guys would come in and have career years. the cards use their ballpark combined with the best pitching coach in baseball to use this strategy in the opposite way. they pay hitters and find pitchers. the phils need to do the opposite and it could work.
Posted by: Joelcards | July 09, 2008 at 11:03 AM
I think the word on Carrasco is that he generally has trouble adjusting to the next level for at least part of that first year. I could see him get to that "too good to keep here" level by mid 2009.
I don't want him up before that though, especially not this year. Getting thrown into AA really screwed him up for a good portion of last year.
Posted by: JohnKruksWaistLine | July 09, 2008 at 11:05 AM
Cardenas, Donald, Marson, D'Arnaud, Dominic Brown, etc. are all legit prospects. the last B-A top 100 had three Phils (Carrasco, Cardenas, Savery). not to say that it's a great system (it's not), but if you think Carrasco is the only prospect worth anything you're simply not paying attention.
also:
Burrell has more HR away from home. Rollins has more HR away. Howard has more HR on the road. Utley does hit a lot less HR (8 to 17) away, but he hits a lot more doubles (16 to 8). overall, the Phillies hit .251/.329/.429 (63 HR) at CBP and .261/.338/.447 (60 HR) on the road. yes, it's a relatively HR-friendly ballpark, but it's nothing like mid-90s Coors.
Posted by: ae | July 09, 2008 at 11:06 AM
*Utley overrated and overpaid? You joking?
*Burrell lazy? I'll give you "laid back", but that's the Californian in him and a big difference. He's known as a guy who spends a lot of time in the batting cage (and the bars). His approach at the plate has changed over the last few years. Howard would be more Dunnish, than Burrell.
I do think they need to improve pitching-big time, but the way you were bashing their park, going overboard on hitting isn't the worst strategy.
Posted by: Bedrosian's Beard | July 09, 2008 at 11:08 AM
"utleys the best 2b in the league but i still think hes overrated(and overpaid). burrell is lazy."
I don't know where you've gotten either of those ideas. Utley's contract is very fair and Burrell is no Bobby Abreu out there in left.
The only offense they've recently paid is Utley. The other guys they've signed short term aren't a complete waste of resources, not to mention the pitching market hasn't been there to pay. You're out to lunch on some of this.
Posted by: JohnKruksWaistLine | July 09, 2008 at 11:12 AM
How long is the media (and the casual fan, for that matter) gonna let guys like Bedard and Willis coast along on a past reputation. Bedard is soft and should not, in my opinion, be considered an "Ace".
Posted by: MickS | July 09, 2008 at 11:14 AM
I don't think he's an ace either, but a good #2.
Posted by: Bedrosian's Beard | July 09, 2008 at 11:23 AM
utley is making 15 million per. i guess thats not terrible(it was ridiculous at the time he was signed) but hes still overrated. if this phillies team has all these great players(howard, rollins, utley) why cant they win in the playoffs? they dont have one mvp caliber player yet everyone thinks they have three. pujols is an mvp, not those guys. put pujols in that ballpark and he hits 60 homers a year. not to mention gold glove defense. some people forget defense is important too.
Posted by: Joelcards | July 09, 2008 at 11:27 AM
Please stop falling for trolling comments from this guy, let's keep this a Bedard thread
Posted by: wayne gomes | July 09, 2008 at 11:29 AM
If Chase Utley is overated, it is only because his numbers are so filthy that he simply can't be that good. Maybe in another park he doesn't put up the same gaudy numbers but he can still rake. Goes line to line and just sprays line drives everywhere. Also has improved his defense a tremendous amount even since 2006, when he was average there. That guy can just flat out play imo.
Rollins, on the other hand, I do think is overated. I even think last year was a fluke, even for CBP. He just never put up those type of numbers before, and even now, although the injury may still be in play, he looks closer to his career averages then he does to his season last year. Rollins is a good player, but very overated if you ask me. Good shortstop, decent leadoff hitter with tools, but he does not get on base enough and does not slug enough (2007 not withstanding) for me. As a defensive SS, and a baserunner, he is top of the line, but his offensive game is way overated to me.
Posted by: nrmax88 | July 09, 2008 at 11:38 AM
Rollins is overrated if you rate him as "perennial MVP candidate." He did have somewhat of a fluke power season last year. If you rate him as "perennial NL All Star shortstop, and top 3 at the position in the big leagues" then I'd say that's about right
He's a streaky hitter because he swings so much, he will undoubtedly go on an extended tear at some point in the second half and get his numbers up
Posted by: wayne gomes | July 09, 2008 at 11:41 AM
well i believe utley is overrated but, once again, i still think hes the best 2b in baseball. i just here this mvp talk and when i hear that i compare everyone to pujols. ill take pujols anyday. utley is no pujols.
and i agree with pretty much everything u said about rollins. i think u can think a guy is a good player and still think hes overrated. to me rollins is a winner but mvp, cmon. hes no pujols i know that.
Posted by: Joelcards | July 09, 2008 at 11:47 AM
what r u doing falling for my trolling comments wayne? top 3 shortstop in baseball? lets see hanley and reyes r better and younger. then theres a whole bunch of guys who r very similar to rollins. top ten sure but not top 3. and hes just going to "swing his way out of it" im guessing u r from philly yes?
Posted by: Joelcards | July 09, 2008 at 11:52 AM
Dude Utley was voted as one of the most underrated players in the MLB by the players in the SI magazine. I would like to know where you pulled that 15 million per number out of your ass? This year Utley is making about 7.5 million. What an annoying little troll you are. Anyway I would gladly trade Carlos Carrasco for Bedard along with some other high upside prospects(Golson, Donald). The Phillies need to make a move to hang with the Brew Crew and the Cubs after the moves that they made.
Posted by: RC26 | July 09, 2008 at 11:53 AM
I would assume a Burnett deal, with his best case scenario opt out or worst case opt in for 2-24, would cost less in terms of prospects.
I know they need a SS, would Donald, another #5-10 overall system prospect, and maybe another small piece get it done? And would you rather do that than pay Carrasco and some small pieces for Bedard?
Posted by: wayne gomes | July 09, 2008 at 11:57 AM
utley makes 15 million next year and 3 more years after. the only reason he isnt making more this year is because he wouldnt have even been a free agent yet until this offseason. im sure the phillies would like bedard but they dont have enough to get him. carrasco and junk, thats what they have. the ms have lots of junk on their roster already.
Posted by: Joelcards | July 09, 2008 at 12:03 PM
They have more then enough to get him clueless troll, you're an idiot. Just because you want your Cards to get him doesn't mean you have to bash other teams that want to along the way. As of right now troll, the Phillies are the front runners. They have just as much as the Cubs had before the Harden trade.
Posted by: RC26 | July 09, 2008 at 12:08 PM
So you think I'm a homer for calling Rollins top-3, and then go on to name exactly two SSs you think are better than him. Brilliant.
Reyes has been better this year so far but was far worse than Rollins last season, and has struggled with the glove this year. Jeter hasn't been a force since 2006 and is a butcher in the field now. Escobar is promising but hasn't even clocked in a good full season yet.
Hanley is the only clearly superior SS in the bigs right now. Enjoy Brendan Ryan
Posted by: wayne gomes | July 09, 2008 at 12:11 PM
hey its cesar izturis buddy. and i do enjoy ryan, as well as lohse. funny lohse is ok with philly but suddenly hes great for us(ballpark maybe?).i bet utley doesnt hit 30 homers for the cards, yet hes an mvp for philly. how crazy is that.
as for the bedard trade i sort of wish the cards could get him but i dont think we have enough either. the anderson/duncan/reyes package is available but i dont think thats enough. i just think someone will step up who has more to offer. if the rays jump in(havent heard one rumor they would) they have the young talent teams like. maybe the phils can get him but i think the ms r looking for more quality and quantity than the phils can offer.
Posted by: Joelcards | July 09, 2008 at 12:43 PM
Actually Lohse was great with the Phillies last year and put up similar numbers with the Phils as he is putting up right now with the Cards. He was just horrible with the Reds.
Posted by: RC26 | July 09, 2008 at 12:51 PM
Actually I'd say it's Dave Duncan more than the ballpark. That guy has to be worth 5-7 wins a year. Every middling journeyman righty he touches they seem to get something out of (going back to Weaver and Suppan in the WS year). He should hold out for a raise
Posted by: wayne gomes | July 09, 2008 at 12:56 PM
With the Mets pretty much screwed after this season, if trhe Phullies mortgage their future on Bedard, I'm thinking the next few years will look good for the Braves and the Marlins...
Posted by: FineHamAbounds | July 09, 2008 at 01:09 PM
The Braves have already mortgaged their future for Tex.
Posted by: RC26 | July 09, 2008 at 01:14 PM
Exactly. What the Phillies give up for 1.5 years of Bedard will pale in comparison to what the Braves gave up for 1.5 of Tex (with no playoff appearances to show for it)
Posted by: wayne gomes | July 09, 2008 at 01:21 PM
Erm, how are the Mets "pretty much screwed after this season?? That makes no sense..
The Phillies have to get Bedard or Burnett, because they are not going anywhere with Jamie Moyer as their #2....
Posted by: Hyro | July 09, 2008 at 01:44 PM
As a Jays fan, I would be very disappointed if JP settled on Jason Donald as Burnett's price tag. .301/.384/.491 in AA is nice, but he is almost 24 and has defense that likely won't stick at SS. A legitimate arm would have to be included, methinks.
Posted by: 92-93 | July 09, 2008 at 01:58 PM
The Braves are losing Tex, Chipper is old and brittle, one of their two top prospects is a cheater, and Frenchie forgot how to hit a baseball, their best pitcher is old and injured, Glavine is like 50 years old and will be gone, Hudson will be 34 next year, they only have 2 pitchers locked up for next year, and the Mets are screwed?
Posted by: nrmax88 | July 09, 2008 at 03:49 PM
Cubs should get in on the Bedard deal and pawn Marquis off on some sad-sack GM like Gillick or Coletti.
Posted by: Johnny Rotten | July 09, 2008 at 04:14 PM
The mets are definitely not screwed for next season their pitching staff is going to still be very good with Santana Maine as 1-2 and with the way Pelfrey has been pitching lately (1.82 ERA over his last four starts)that is definitely the best #3 in the NL east this year and next year.
Posted by: willie randolph sucks | July 09, 2008 at 04:47 PM
With Perez being a Boras client how much do you think he will go for in the off season?
Posted by: willie randolph sucks | July 09, 2008 at 04:50 PM
Depends if he pitches like he has his last two starts or if he reverts back to his ways of struggling. I can see him getting a deal for 15 million over 5 years, and I can also see him getting a 1 year deal worth 6 million. It all depends. I think the Mets should look carefully at bringing him back because the way pitching is, you will have to pay a good amount of money to replace Ollie anyway. I would rather spend 12 million on Ollie then I would on Silva.
Posted by: nrmax88 | July 09, 2008 at 05:19 PM
I think they will resign him depending on how he finishes this year and how Neise develops if Neise is ready I can see the Mets taking the draft picks and move on. It must count for something that he is a big game pitcher.
Posted by: willie randolph sucks | July 09, 2008 at 05:52 PM
"utley makes 15 million next year and 3 more years after"
Incorrect again, utley makes 7.5 this year, 11 next year and 15 for the following four years. Please do your research, it takes maybe eight seconds.
Posted by: rcllcr | July 09, 2008 at 07:19 PM
Philly Friar - FYI our ballclub canned Bavasi & Maclaren within weeks of each other in middle June. As much as I was excited about having Bedard when we traded for him (short-lived excitement) I think he would like it better somewhere on the east coast like Philly.
Posted by: Slycer_B | July 09, 2008 at 07:31 PM
Bedard will never handle the media well anywhere if he doesn't change his attitude. Seriously, you think he won't getting eaten alive in Philly when he can't even handle the extremely laid back, casual Seattle media? That's a big reason why we thought Bedard would do well in Seattle. He could get away from the spotlight playing for an east coast team. It hasn't worked out too well.
What the majority of Seattle fans think is that Bedard is holding himself back since this is a lost season for the Mariners. He has had some nagging back and hip problems and he simply doesn't want to risk making those more serious pushing himself for a last place team. To be honest, I haven't seen Bedard push it much ever. He's just not the firey, emotional athlete that will carry a team.
He is definitely not a #1 starter even though he has the ability of one. He doesn't want that role. He wants to be in the background.
To the topic. If all the Mariners can get is Carrasco + filler.. I would pass. Bedards value is pretty low right now even though he is the best pitcher available. He's under contract for another year and even if we let him walk via free agency, a couple draft picks would probably work out nearly as good as what the Phils could offer.
Posted by: thr33niL | July 09, 2008 at 09:25 PM
The phillies have gotten to where they are now with patience in the farm system. Bedard is a long shot with his injury problems, stay with what we got. Happ has three pretty good outings so far. Question? Does bedard put us in the playoffs with a legitimate shot at A championship? NO. Hope for the best and realize it may take another year to truly contend for the world series.This teams future is very bright.
Posted by: phillyphanatic1971 | July 10, 2008 at 03:49 AM
Phanatic, we'd have Bedard next season too if we acquired him.
I question whether Carrasco would be ML ready for a contending team for the start of 2009, plus we will likely be losing Burrell and Moyer. Right now the projected 2009 rotation looks like this...Hamels, Kendrick, ???
I don't see how the team is more of a contender in 2009 with internal improvements than it is in 2008 with Bedard.
Posted by: wayne gomes | July 10, 2008 at 09:07 AM
For those Philly fans that are unaware, Bavasi is no longer our GM. Also, Bedard isn't an ace by any means. Every M's fan knew that we gave away too much for him and most of us didn't even want him. The M's FO is the worst in baseball. They thought that last years fluke meant something more than it was and they decided they could win now. Clueless.
Bedard rarely pitches more than 5 or 6 innings, he's usually injured, and he's not good with the media or fans.
If I were the M's GM, I'd trade him for a bag of magic beans. Maybe then we'd be able to finally grow a farm system.
Posted by: seattleslew | July 10, 2008 at 01:45 PM