Heyman On Top Free Agents

Interesting predictions.

As a Rangers fan, if those offers were really what will get them signed.

I think Texas should sign Sheets and Burrell (along with Bradley too). I wished the Rangers went after CC hard but 25M a year is just way too much.

I could see Dempster getting that kind of deal too, maybe from a team like the Astros?

Orlando Hudson to the White Sox for 2 years 16M

Milton Bradley to Toronto for 2 yrs 18M(someone will overpay him for the year hes been having)

Raul Ibanez re signs with Seattle for 3 yrs 36M

Bobby Abreu signs a 2 yr deal with the cross town Mets to fill their outfield void that Alou created. 2 yrs 20M with 3 yr option

AJ Burnett goes to the Cubs for 5 yrs 80 M

Dempster re-signs with cubs for 4 yr 35 M

Derek Lowe to the Braves (beating out the Yanks in an early spring deal) 2yrs 18 M

Oliver Perez signs in Seattle for 3 yrs 24 M with an option on 4th year

Mark Teixeira signs in LAA for 8 yrs 144 M (18 M/yr)

These are just my guesses, if you disagree tell me why? Don't just bash me for my opinion.

"He's come back nicely from a brutal year of a few years ago to reestablish himself as a pretty good offensive player. He's had a lot of big hits this year. Of course, many of them have come in Citizen's Bank Jokeyard. Best guess: $48 million, four years."

Heyman needs to do his research and look at Burrell's home/road splits this season:

Home: .224 Avg, 9 HRs, 28 RBIs, .350 OBP, .429 SLG, .779 OPS

Road: .307 Avg, 18 HRs, 40 RBIs, .431 OBP, .673 SLG, 1.104 OPS

Sounds to me like a player that has NOT been a product of his environment this season

I think the Ryan Garko experiment should be finished. How about the Tribe signing Jason Giambi to a 2 year contract. Garko can be traded, although I don't know for whom. This is just my opinion, please do not bash.

"Bobby Abreu signs a 2 yr deal with the cross town Mets to fill their outfield void that Alou created. 2 yrs 20M with 3 yr option"

I can't imagine that he'll turn down arbitration where he'll make about $16MM, for a 2/20 deal. Also, not so sure that Seattle will keep Ibanez; someone will outpay them. Otherwise, looks good to me.

I figured since Abreu would most likely platoon in NYY (I am guessing, they have a lot of good talent in the outfield)that his value would drop. Lowe is 35 yrs old, I didn't really see him as a 4 yr type of guy at that age (granted he has good stuff on days hes on) Hudson was more of a wish that a projection lol He is elite and will probably go 5 yrs somewhere. I know how Seattle likes their arms and if they balk at Sabathia and Sheets I can see them making a run at Perez.

Oh man 3 yrs 75 M for Manny! my bad not 30M lol 10M/yr for Manny?? yeah right!

Soxside,

I disagree with Teixeira signing and here is my opinion why. With the Yankees pretty much out of the playoffs, I believe they will get CC and Teixeira no matter the cost. We need a front line starter since we missed out on the Johan sweepstakes. We need a 1B considering we have no one in the minors and the other option is a 37 year old Giambi. With us entering into the first year of our new stadium and multiple contracts coming off the books, I don't think anyone will offer longer/more money in contracts to those two FA's than us. Now, I can only assume we will get them if they want to play in NY and take the best offer. I do think we will have the best offer, especially with us entering a new stadium (we will want to make a huge impact in our first year) and certainly if we do not make the playoffs this year. I could see us resigning Pettitte to a 1 or 2 year deal, no so sure about Abreu considering we should have Matsui, Damon, Nady in the OF as well as Gardner and Christian possibly filling in a extra OF help. I think it is possible we go after Sheets or Burnett as well. I project our lineup for 2009 as:

Damon
Jeter
Teix
A-Rod
Matsui
Nady
Posada
Cano
Christian/Gardner

Rotation:
CC
Sheets/Burnett
Wang
Pettitte
Chamberlain/Hughes

Texeira - 6 years, 114 million to NYY

Dunn - 6 years, 96 million, LAA

Sabathia - 6 years, 132 million, NYY

Sheets - 5 years, 90 million, NYY

YankeeSkipper: I agree with your logic and the logic of the Yankees. It would be pretty sick to see the Yankees spend that money and get all those guys (of course being a White Sox fan that would suck) However, I am not sure Sheets will handle the pressure in playing in NYY. Remember he is oft-injured and I can see another Carl Pavano written all over it(I know Sheets is 10000 times better than he, but what good is that if he always on the DL) Sheets has been healthy this year so lets hope for his sake that trend continues. I remember Sabathia saying somewhere he likes NY (I think).

Juiced: I just have that funny feeling with the lack of movement of Roberts this year and a couple other minor deals that Baltimore may have a plan up their sleeves. I haven't really looked at the 2010 free agents and this year seems like a year where you can get a pretty clutch player. (CC, Sheets, Burnett, Lowe) that is a good group to choose from. Like I said earlier, Baltimore isn't HORRIBLE but they really lack that big franchise guy (I don't count Roberts as that guy) So a Tex signing or even a Burrell may start the ball rolling. Probably won't contend next year but the year after they may sneak up on a few guys. If they don't plan on contending next year (I.E free agency or trades) then they NEED to get rid of Roberts for a reasonable price. Similar to a Cubs/A's trade with Harden. Get 4 GOOD players instead of 2 elite.

METS: Mark Teixeira, 7 yrs @ 25.5m

Raul Ibanez, 4 yrs @ 12.5m

AND/OR

Fransisco Rodriguez, 7 yrs @ 22.5m

resign Oliver Perez, Pedro

YANKEES: Sabathia, 7 yrs @ 27.5m

resign Abreu, Giambi, Mussina, and many other guys

RED SOX: Hudson, 4 yrs @ 10m

move Pedroia to short, make Lowrie future 3B

darkstar... you must've forgotten, tim hudson just had tommy john... dont think the Dodgers' DL is full of high priced starters yet?

Soxside,

Sheets is injury prone but they have been weird stuff, nothing to do with him arm (I think). Sheets pitched for the Olympic team and was the winning pitcher in the gold medal game. I think he would do fine in NY. He also pitched well in the All-Star game. Sheets is a longer shot to get signed by us because we will have CC (assuming he takes the best offer), Wang, Chamberlain, Pettitte, Hughes and possibly Mussina if he accepts a 1 year deal with club option. I like the idea of signings a Sheets/Burnett or Perez to add pitching depth. I wouldn't mind adding Dunn or Burrell as well depending on how well Gardner/Christian do this August and September. Although it is unlikely, my dream lineup and rotation would be as follows. Keep in mind that it is unlikely but very possible due to the contracts coming off the books and the increased revenues from the new stadium. Talk about making an impact in our first year in the new stadium.

Lineup:

Damon
Jeter
Teix
A-Rod
Dunn/Burrell
Matsui
Nady
Posada
Cano

Rotation:

CC
Sheets
Wang
Pettitte
Chamberlain/Hughes

Put Chamberlain or Hughes in the setup role for this season and after Pettitte retires next season bring them up as a starter for 2010.

It is hard to build from within when you are in the playoffs every year and get lower first round draft picks. Yes, they got lucky with Hughes and Chamberlain, but that doesn't happen often. We have the money, we need to spend it. What we need to learn is not to spend FA money on veterans past their prime (35 & up), but rather spend it on those FA in their prime, such as Sheets (30), Sabathia (28), Teix (29), Dunn (30), etc.

We should open 2009 with a bank, and get plenty of bang with that bank.

Darkstar1661: Interesting concepts. I can see most of those signings happening or should I say, I can see the logic behind it. If the Cubs don't win this year with this team I can see them making a push at another starter (Burnett) and maybe Orlando Hudson, keeping DeRosa as the super sub. Not to take away what Fontenot, DeRosa, Theriot, and Cedeno has been doing this year. With a new owener (Mark Cuban maybe?) the hunger for a championship will be greater than ever. Perhaps they give in and sign Burrell or Dunn and move Fukudome to center. I am in no way a Cubs fan (as I said before I live and die with the White Sox) but it may make sense.

Adam Dunn to the Giants? I like that. SF needs some bats as their pitching is pretty nasty (Cain, Sanchez, Lincecum) I would find a way to dispose of Zito's contract and maybe run at a Oliver Perez type guy.

“darkstar... you must've forgotten, tim hudson just had tommy john... dont think the Dodgers' DL is full of high priced starters yet?”
Posted by: brocmiller1

…You got the wrong Hudson ~ I was talking about O-Dawg…

“Darkstar1661: Interesting concepts. I can see most of those signings happening or should I say, I can see the logic behind it.”

…Thanks. Did want to point out a typo in there though ~ the Yankees offer to Dunn should be 5/95; but I think he turns it down to stay away from the fickle NY media and instead play for a more laid-back Giants team who wants to replace the face of the franchise with his Yellowstone type power…

I’m not sure I can see the Cubs signing any big names though. I agree that they should move Fukudome to center if he would be willing, his bat plays there much better than on a corner ~ but even if they did that, I think his replacement would be a lesser name semi-platoon type. And no room in rotation for a big name/contract, Zambrano/Lilly/Harden/Marquis with either Hill or Marshall maybe ready to fill the 5th spot or some lesser name coming in to do that job. Remember that most of the contracts they signed were of the ballooning type ~ their salary will be quite a bit higher just from the raises they signed on for.

Oh, and the Giants will not be able to rid themselves of Zito’s contract ~ no one is that foolish. That said, he isnt that bad of a 4th-5th guy behind their big-3 (well for that cash he is, but nothing can be done about that now)

A wild card in all this FA signing speculation is if Marc Cuban is named as the owner of the Cubs. If he is, they immediately become a $200-250MM payroll team, and the Stienbrenners will have competition.

Something to consider is that if the Yankees (or other team) sign more than 1 type A FA then the team losing the lower ranked player would only receive a 3rd rd pick (I think a team can't lose consecutive picks but I'm not sure) and a comp round.

consider that if the Yankees sign CC, Tex and another Type A guy. The angels (I think Tex would rank lower than CC, but we won't know until later) would only get a 3rd and supp pick out of the deal. If they also signed sheets (or someone comparable) the Brewers would only get a 5th and a supp.

It might not happen but it will be something to track this offseason

Sabathia-NYY-7 years/162mill

Teixera-NYY- 10 years 175mill

Yankees will dump

1.pavano
2.giambi
3.abreu
4.Pettitte

"Sabathia has shown NO interest in pitching in New York"

LOL? He wanted to come to the Yankees instead of the Brewers this year but the Indians didnt like the Yankees offer. Dude, you don't know what youre saying, he will NOT pitch in Texas, even if they offered him more than NYY would offer him. Its not a pitchers ballpark, by any means.

astros 2009 pitching rotation if i ran that organization:
roy oswalt
andy pettitte
pedro martinez
randy wolf
brandon backe

sign pettitte cause the yankees are gonna spend big on cc and sheets especially if they dont make the playoffs and pettitte once was an astro and did well here. everyne knows pedro is better than brian mohler or runelvys hernandez and would REALLY be an upgrade and might come cheap since he is on the downslide. if pedro cant be had i would look for names like brad penny ryan dempster or jon garland(but pedro would be #1 choice)cheaply sign randy wolf to a 1 yr deal for insurance and a crafty lefty as ur number 4 starter. Use backe and of course oswalt (home grown talent) to round of the rotation.

I would also trade a player like Felipe Paulino and cash for Adrian Beltre and would cheaply start signing veteran free agents that once were solid players to be on my bench,....leaving my team shaping out to be:
c jr towles/ greg zaun
1b lance berkman/darin erstad
2b kaz matsui/ray durham
3b adrian beltre
ss miguel tejada/miguel cairo
lf carlos lee
cf hunter pence/mark kotsay
rf Juan Rivera( really needs a starting job to prove himself)

* i would trade michael bourn for a decent bullpen arm like chad cordero to tag along with doug brocail to set up valverde..

astros 2009 bullpen:

lrp wandy rodriguez

mrp luis ayala
mrp chad qualls
mrp todd jones

su chad cordero
su doug brocail

cp jose valverde

any comments about how i shaped out the team would be nice...

Soxside...

You have the Cubs resigning Dempster and signing Burnett. Do you know that would make their payroll about 165 million BEFORE arbitration. No way they resign Dempster or Wood and they won't make a FA splash either.

My predictions...(I'm not doing the money thing, because its to variable)

Tex- Angels (room to sign w/o KRod)
CC- Yanks (deepest pockets)
Sheets- Orioles
KRod- Rangers (I don't see anyone giving him 60 mil)
Manny- Dodgers (their in trouble without him)
Bradley- Phillies (replace Burrell)
Abreu- Astros (why...no one will know)
Ibanez- A's (2nd rate..)
Burnett- Cardinals (30 mil to spend...)
Dempster- Braves (I think it works for a short term fix in ATL)
Lowe- Angels (West coast discount)
Perez- Mets (too young to let go)
Hudson- Giants
Furcal- Cardinals (SS hole and lots to spend)

Dark- like some of your ideas, but I think it's just as unrealistic (as what the Yankees fans are suggesting) that the Bombers make NO major FA pick-ups. Come on, dude, they're the YANKEES!!!

I agree with you that there's little chance Sabathia signs there, but NO ONE?!!!

Other than that, some solid predictions.

SouthSide- You make an interesting point about the O's, but I think you're reading too much into the lack of movement on the Roberts front. As others have pointed out, the club is working toward 2010 and beyond, so it would be a bit surprising to see them make a serious run at any free agents. If they do, however, Angelos is the type to make a run at- 1 (w/ a bullet) Tex- hometown boy, Angelos loves him, they've been courting each other in the press [reason he doesn't- O's are rebuilding, Yankees offer more, Tex is, as I said, a paycheck player and kind of a wh0re]. 2. Sabathia- Don't get me wrong, I don't think they get him, but IF Angelos decides to pony up for a FA, he and Andy are star-f'ers and would probably go for broke; figuring Sabathia is young enough (and durable enough) to rebuild AROUND. The more I think about it, Sheets doesn't fit the profile. Andy has publicly stated that he doesn't like giving out long term/big deals to pitchers and I doubt he'd change his tune for one with such a long history of medical problems. Frankly, I can't even see him going after Sabathia- that would be Angelos' idea, if it happened. 3. Burnett- because he too has Maryland ties, he's been linked to the O's in the past, and because it would be completely STUPID, which fits the Orioles FA profile under Angelos.

Other than those three, the O's would only go after second FA pitchers to stabilize the rotation or place-fillers at 1B (to replace Millar) or SS (Furcal if he doesn't re-sign with the Dodgers, as expected, could get a BIG offer from B'more). Burrell makes little sense since the O's already have young studs at RF and CF, and a pretty solid group of LF'ers to choose from in Luke Scott, Lou Montanez, and top prospect Nolan Reimold.

For the guy who sees the Yankees rotation as CC, Sheets, Wang, Pettite, and Chamberlain? You don't just see the glass as half full, you see it overflowing, don't you?

Joe- really like your list. While, of course, it won't prove perfect, it's probably the most comprehensive and most realistic of any I've seen on this thread.

Speig7-

'LOL? He wanted to come to the Yankees instead of the Brewers this year but the Indians didnt like the Yankees offer. Dude, you don't know what youre saying, he will NOT pitch in Texas, even if they offered him more than NYY would offer him. Its not a pitchers ballpark, by any means.'

Where are you getting this? Must be the New York outlets, because EVERYTHING I've read has completely contradicted your statement. I only mentioned Texas- I didn't say he WOULD end up there (in fact, I said the Dodgers), but OK...he won't pitch in Texas. Fine. I still say he won't pitch in New York either.

Clearly we have read two VERY different stories, but- and please, if anyone else has heard anything, speak up- what I read from multiple sources was that A)earlier in the year, Sabathia said he DID NOT want to pitch for the Yankees and wasn't enthusiastic about New York in general and B)he recently told his former Cleveland teammates that he would not be pitching next year ('09) east of Cleveland (which, obviously, includes New York).

Now, you may have read something else and neither of us can know the man's mind. Maybe he'll just take the best offer, regardless of where. Maybe he was just posturing to keep his options open and to ensure that other teams believe they have a chance, thus driving up the price FOR the Yankees. Who can say, other than the man himself. Nevertheless, I know what I read.

if ned colletti finds a way to sign sabathia, hudson, and furcal over the offseason, he may buy himself another couple of years as dodgers GM. (as scary as that sounds.)

my bet on burnett is that he stays with the jays for the 1 yr left

he said he wants to stay

not that he'll stay with the same contract but possibly renegotiation?

I think the white sox will grab O-Dawg and Brian Fuentes, possibly go after Ryan Dempster.

A-rod will opt out of his contract during game 4 of the World Series, but then change his mind and return to them.

Can we all agree that not every player wants to play for the Yankees?

Every year it's the same thing. Each prime FA is slotted to sign with the Yanks. This year appears to be no different.

Why would the Yanks want Tex? There is NO way you can expect Posada to catch in 09. If he does, bonus. Just don't bet your season on it. That means you are targeting I-Rod. That pushes Posada to first or DH.

Then you have the musical chair situation with Matsui, Damon, or any other player needing some off time to be the DH. As Jeter and Rodriguez age it's reasonable to assume that they may want a day to recharge.

Between Tex being a Type A, wanting $18-20m, and the situation with Posada I just don't see the Yanks as a great match.

As for other free agents

Sabathia heads south to Texas (this guy will get more money then Sheets because he does not have a long history of arm problems like Sheets does).

Sheets and Tex go to New York. (I still don't think Hank has bought into Cashman's young talent preaching yet.) I see Tex getting 8 yrs/160 mil. For Tex I also see the Giants willing to take the risk despite the Zito disaster. They signed Rowand and he has done well. However the relationship between Angelos and his Baltimore guys might be too much to turn down. For some reason I bet Angelos gives 10 yrs/ 200 mil.

I say that IIlich wants a championship before he kicks the bucket as he as always said and after tonight I think that makes their main free agent target K-Rod.

One of Kyle Lohse or A.J Burnett goes to the Mets. Whatever one the Mets don't sign settles for the Astros.

Furcal goes back to the Dodgers. O. Cabrera goes to the O's just because they are in desperate need of a shortstop and have no one immediatly ready.

I think that the Braves might be willing to sign Tim Hudson. Another interesting team is the O's because in the past five years they have had very legitamite interest. They had a deal in line for him but didn't want to give up Hayden Penn.

Hudson goes to the White Sox so Alexei can go to shortstop.

I think that Burrell goes to the Mets if they don't make a major pitcher signing because with Alou gone LF becomes a void.

Ellis returns to Oakland.

I think O. Perez goes to the Cards if they are willing to spend the money.

And lastly Moose and Pettite return to NY Yankees.

And I was under the impression that CC, like Johan, loves hitting and would prefer the NL so he can swing the stick. If only the Mets could un-do the Johan contract and sign CC this year. Ugh.

I didn't have any trades and didnt get rid of any prospects in my comment what was that about trading melky I would never do that I want them to stick with there prospects here is my order for the yanks
Damon
jeter
aberu
arod
Matsui
nady
cano
posada
pudge

Sheets
Wang
moose
pettite
Hughes
with a great bullpen joba Marte verses rivera Fuentes Edwar giese they would only have to sign 3 people and resign a couple that actautly realistic they would be great to

Spieg7-

Wow. So, the Yanks are going to get CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, AND Jon Garland...AND they're going to re-sign Mussina. Huh. That sounds almost...perfect. All the stars aligning and whatnot. Why not Sheets as well? And Burnett?! Adam Dunn might be a good fit at DH! We may as well just call off the winter meetings; apparently the Yankees are getting EVERYBODY!!! (whether those players like it or not)

I would be surprised if Dempster and Wood went elsewhere. Both seem to be pretty happy with their current sitiuation(which can all change when someone comes knocking at your door with the likes of the NYY, BOS, LAA, and NYM willing to give you half of Fort Knox)

Hopefully the loyalties they have been exhibiting in the past towards the team will translate into a hometown discount.

Although, when it comes to NYY and NYM I would think that 2009 might be the one offseason that they don't go absolutely nuts on FA signings. I think recent results are showing those teams that blowing your load on flashy FA after a career year and trading away 3/4ths of your farm system can't be the game plan for an indefinite length of time without experiencing some down years because of the aging stars outnumbering the young up and comers.

The Yankees would have been better off blowing up the team after the '04 meltdown and rebuilding with 2 out of 3 of their stars(Jeet, A-Rod, Rivera).

If Orlando Hudson's appearing on any free agent list, Mark Ellis' name should be there, too.

to me i really love the white sox position. If crede doesnt sign that is HUGE, we will have much more money to spend on players like Fuentes,O-Dawg/Ellis or even a starter of some sort many people bash Kenny Williams for not making moves or making bad moves when he is pure genius. to pick up players like Floyd,Danks,Quentin,Ramirez,takes alot of good scouting and a GM that is able to take a risk.

sabathia - rangers
k-rod - mets
manny - dodgers
tex - angels
sheets - yanks
wood - cubs
garland - brewers
burrell - rays
renteria - dodgers
hudson - astros
dempster - cubs
fuentes - tigers
lowe - angels
burnett - dodgers