MLB Rumors - MLB Trade Rumors
Subscribe to MLB Trade Rumors using RSS
Home     Contact     About     Advertise     Archives     Widget     Twitter      RSS Usage

« Odds and Ends: Pettitte, Hampton, Tazawa, Blalock | Main | Heyman's Latest: Hawpe, Pavano, Fuentes, Lowe »

Elias Rankings: NL Relievers

Eddie Bajek has updated his projected Elias rankings, adding NL relievers.  He explains the stats used in this post.

  • Type A: Ryan Dempster, Russ Springer, Juan Cruz, Brian Fuentes, Doug Brocail, and Kerry Wood.  The Cubs will probably re-sign both of their guys.  The others stand a good chance of being offered arbitration, with Cruz and Fuentes likely to sign elsewhere and net picks for the D'Backs and Rockies.
  • Type B: Brian Shouse, Jason Isringhausen, Joe Beimel, Jeremy Affeldt, Dave Weathers, Trevor Hoffman, Brandon Lyon, and Eric Gagne.  Beimel and Lyon might receive arbitration offers.
  • Just missed Type B: Arthur Rhodes, Luis Ayala, Will Ohman, LaTroy Hawkins, Matt Herges.  Many other impending free agents have no chance of Type B.


TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00d834515b9a69e2010534970060970b

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Elias Rankings: NL Relievers:

Comments

Eric Gagne doesn't deserve anything.

Anything.

I don't think there's anyway that Cards offer arb to Izzy. I'm suprised to see him get type B, his performance wasn't as bad as alot of people made it out to be but he hasn't spent at least 1/3-1/2 of the season on the DL.

Gagne is STILL a type B? In other words he gains points for being a closer despite the fact he's a bad closer?

the ONLY possible reason that Gagne got type B is that he does have 10 saves and that must balance out era which only........6.52!!! umm...well they must be using some of that new math.

Ohman misses type B status? Nice.

Shouse is gonna have a lot of suitors as well.

You have to consider to that the ratings don't just take into account this season, but the previous season. And last year he had 16 saves with a 'respectable' 3.81 ERA. Struggled in Boston but was solid in Texas. I don't think he should be a Type-B either though...

Shouse would like good in a cardinal uni. so would Ohman at that and Downs.

Why is Ryan Dempster a reliever?

In the past two years, Dempster has appeared in 96 games, 66 of them in relief. Therefore, he's a reliever.

"the ONLY possible reason that Gagne got type B is that he does have 10 saves and that must balance out era which only........6.52!!! umm...well they must be using some of that new math."

Remember that for most of the year last year, Gagne was fairly dominant, which added to his status.

"Beimel and Lyon might receive arbitration offers."

I am pretty sure Beimel gets offered arbitration. He is perfect for the Dodger 'pen as he is a lefty specialist who can get righties out and go multiple innings if need be. Also, his numbers this year are out of this world.

Beimel is a free agent at the end of the year, no longer under team control.

Hoffman is a "B"?

2007 - 57IP / 42 saves / 2.98 ERA
2008 - 41IP / 28 saves / 4.14 ERA

Wood

2007 - 24IP / 0 saves (1-1 record) / 3.33 ERA
2008 - 58IP / 28 saves / 3.26 ERA

Hoffman has more saves, more IP, and a comparable weighted ERA. How Hoffman is rated so much lower is really confusing.

"Hoffman has more saves, more IP, and a comparable weighted ERA. How Hoffman is rated so much lower is really confusing."

Remember that Wood gets some padding for being on the DL. Also, does age factor at all in these equations?

"Beimel is a free agent at the end of the year, no longer under team control."

They would still have to offer him arbitration to get a pick if he signs somewhere else. I think they will do that because I don't think the Dodgers are too worried if he accepts the offer.

yes the Cubs better keep Ryan and Kerry and then focus on the outfield, re-signing Jim and Reed

Hey Tim, I dont know if you did this already..but they changed their ELIAS Rankings for Starter.....there was an error in the system, and it has since been changed...Makes Much More Sense Now.

"Remember that Wood gets some padding for being on the DL. Also, does age factor at all in these equations?"

I wondered if age is a factor as well. And don't forget that Wood strikes out a lot more hitters than Hoffman does. Given age and relative dominance it's no doubt that Wood is a better choice going forward than Hoffman and it looks like that was taken into account with their respective status.

I should have clarified - not arguing whether Wood is better than Hoffman or not. I just don't understand the rationale used at all. The system is so wildly inconsistent and runs counter intuitive to virtually any other ranking system devised.

Seriously, using RBI's and BA to determine an offensive players value? No adjustment for hitters parks (like OPS+)? Relievers getting credit for Wins?

The issue of FA compensation is so critical today. You would hope that the system that determines the ranking would stay up with the times. This system actually makes the BCS look like they know what they are doing.

Questions that have been raised about what stats are used. Here is the formula that was posted for relievers:

Total Games (Games Relieved +2*Games Started), IP**, Wins+Saves, IP/H, K/BB, ERA

Age does not appear to factor into the equation. There is, however, some adjustment made for the counting stats when a player goes on the DL.

Finally, the system is not designed to project future value. In this case Wood just gets a huge assist with his time on the DL.

Dempster is not a reliever

BJ - are you suggesting that the Elias formulae might actually be flawed :)

I completely agree. Awful system. Lots of flaws.

"I completely agree. Awful system. Lots of flaws."

Every system has flaws. At least this one gets things right most of the time. Also, you have to remember that the reverse engineering of this system may not be completely accurate either.

"Dempster is not a reliever"

For the Elias rankings, he is.

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been posted. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment


Top Stories



Search MLBTR

Lijit Search

MLBTR Features



Recent Posts


MLBTR Mailing List

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner


Rumors By Team



Monthly Archives


Live Chats


Tuesdays at 2 p.m. CST



Site Map     Contact     About     Advertise     Privacy Policy     Widget     Twitter     Rss Feed


MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com.