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Eddie Bajek has updated his projected Elias rankings, adding NL relievers. He explains the stats used in this post.
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Eric Gagne doesn't deserve anything.
Anything.
Posted by: Meoveryouok | September 10, 2008 at 10:49 AM
I don't think there's anyway that Cards offer arb to Izzy. I'm suprised to see him get type B, his performance wasn't as bad as alot of people made it out to be but he hasn't spent at least 1/3-1/2 of the season on the DL.
Posted by: mitch | September 10, 2008 at 10:49 AM
Gagne is STILL a type B? In other words he gains points for being a closer despite the fact he's a bad closer?
Posted by: start_wearing_purple | September 10, 2008 at 10:49 AM
the ONLY possible reason that Gagne got type B is that he does have 10 saves and that must balance out era which only........6.52!!! umm...well they must be using some of that new math.
Posted by: mitch | September 10, 2008 at 11:32 AM
Ohman misses type B status? Nice.
Shouse is gonna have a lot of suitors as well.
Posted by: Hermie13 | September 10, 2008 at 11:33 AM
You have to consider to that the ratings don't just take into account this season, but the previous season. And last year he had 16 saves with a 'respectable' 3.81 ERA. Struggled in Boston but was solid in Texas. I don't think he should be a Type-B either though...
Posted by: Hermie13 | September 10, 2008 at 11:35 AM
Shouse would like good in a cardinal uni. so would Ohman at that and Downs.
Posted by: mitch | September 10, 2008 at 11:47 AM
Why is Ryan Dempster a reliever?
Posted by: baseball354 | September 10, 2008 at 12:00 PM
In the past two years, Dempster has appeared in 96 games, 66 of them in relief. Therefore, he's a reliever.
Posted by: ebajek85 | September 10, 2008 at 12:08 PM
"the ONLY possible reason that Gagne got type B is that he does have 10 saves and that must balance out era which only........6.52!!! umm...well they must be using some of that new math."
Remember that for most of the year last year, Gagne was fairly dominant, which added to his status.
"Beimel and Lyon might receive arbitration offers."
I am pretty sure Beimel gets offered arbitration. He is perfect for the Dodger 'pen as he is a lefty specialist who can get righties out and go multiple innings if need be. Also, his numbers this year are out of this world.
Posted by: AA | September 10, 2008 at 12:20 PM
Beimel is a free agent at the end of the year, no longer under team control.
Posted by: BlueBleeder | September 10, 2008 at 12:36 PM
Hoffman is a "B"?
2007 - 57IP / 42 saves / 2.98 ERA
2008 - 41IP / 28 saves / 4.14 ERA
Wood
2007 - 24IP / 0 saves (1-1 record) / 3.33 ERA
2008 - 58IP / 28 saves / 3.26 ERA
Hoffman has more saves, more IP, and a comparable weighted ERA. How Hoffman is rated so much lower is really confusing.
Posted by: bjsguess | September 10, 2008 at 01:05 PM
"Hoffman has more saves, more IP, and a comparable weighted ERA. How Hoffman is rated so much lower is really confusing."
Remember that Wood gets some padding for being on the DL. Also, does age factor at all in these equations?
"Beimel is a free agent at the end of the year, no longer under team control."
They would still have to offer him arbitration to get a pick if he signs somewhere else. I think they will do that because I don't think the Dodgers are too worried if he accepts the offer.
Posted by: AA | September 10, 2008 at 01:36 PM
yes the Cubs better keep Ryan and Kerry and then focus on the outfield, re-signing Jim and Reed
Posted by: cubs land | September 10, 2008 at 01:41 PM
Hey Tim, I dont know if you did this already..but they changed their ELIAS Rankings for Starter.....there was an error in the system, and it has since been changed...Makes Much More Sense Now.
Posted by: cincy_11 | September 10, 2008 at 03:13 PM
"Remember that Wood gets some padding for being on the DL. Also, does age factor at all in these equations?"
I wondered if age is a factor as well. And don't forget that Wood strikes out a lot more hitters than Hoffman does. Given age and relative dominance it's no doubt that Wood is a better choice going forward than Hoffman and it looks like that was taken into account with their respective status.
Posted by: pageian | September 10, 2008 at 03:20 PM
I should have clarified - not arguing whether Wood is better than Hoffman or not. I just don't understand the rationale used at all. The system is so wildly inconsistent and runs counter intuitive to virtually any other ranking system devised.
Seriously, using RBI's and BA to determine an offensive players value? No adjustment for hitters parks (like OPS+)? Relievers getting credit for Wins?
The issue of FA compensation is so critical today. You would hope that the system that determines the ranking would stay up with the times. This system actually makes the BCS look like they know what they are doing.
Posted by: bjsguess | September 10, 2008 at 03:40 PM
Questions that have been raised about what stats are used. Here is the formula that was posted for relievers:
Total Games (Games Relieved +2*Games Started), IP**, Wins+Saves, IP/H, K/BB, ERA
Age does not appear to factor into the equation. There is, however, some adjustment made for the counting stats when a player goes on the DL.
Finally, the system is not designed to project future value. In this case Wood just gets a huge assist with his time on the DL.
Posted by: bjsguess | September 10, 2008 at 03:47 PM
Dempster is not a reliever
Posted by: CUBBIES2008 | September 10, 2008 at 10:41 PM
BJ - are you suggesting that the Elias formulae might actually be flawed :)
I completely agree. Awful system. Lots of flaws.
Posted by: kosmo @ www.ObservingCasually.com | September 11, 2008 at 08:35 AM
"I completely agree. Awful system. Lots of flaws."
Every system has flaws. At least this one gets things right most of the time. Also, you have to remember that the reverse engineering of this system may not be completely accurate either.
"Dempster is not a reliever"
For the Elias rankings, he is.
Posted by: AA | September 11, 2008 at 04:58 PM