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« Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants | Main | Gammons' Latest: Martin, Dunn, Quentin »
Free Agent Starters By Strikeout Rate
The free agent market offers fewer than thirty viable starting pitchers. If you're looking for dominance, here's how they rank by strikeouts per nine innings:
| Player | K/9 |
| John Smoltz | 11.57 |
| A.J. Burnett | 9.31 |
| C.C. Sabathia | 8.90 |
| Randy Johnson | 8.74 |
| Ryan Dempster | 8.15 |
| Oliver Perez | 8.14 |
| Randy Wolf | 7.90 |
| Ben Sheets | 7.45 |
| Bartolo Colon | 7.09 |
| Pedro Martinez | 6.93 |
| Andy Pettitte | 6.80 |
| Derek Lowe | 6.38 |
| Mike Mussina | 6.22 |
| Odalis Perez | 6.01 |
| Tim Wakefield | 5.81 |
| Jamie Moyer | 5.75 |
| Josh Fogg | 5.26 |
| Tom Glavine | 5.26 |
| Kyle Lohse | 5.06 |
| Brad Penny | 4.90 |
| Greg Maddux | 4.60 |
| Braden Looper | 4.37 |
| Kenny Rogers | 4.31 |
| Jon Garland | 3.96 |
| Paul Byrd | 3.89 |
| Mike Hampton | 3.83 |
| Sidney Ponson | 3.79 |
| Livan Hernandez | 3.47 |
A strikeout rate of 6.0 per nine or greater is considered decent. Only 14 free agents managed that so far. John Smoltz, Bartolo Colon, and Pedro Martinez are injury risks. Randy Johnson and Andy Pettitte aren't true free agents in that they're likely to be very selective about their teams (Smoltz and Mussina may also fit in this group). That basically leaves us with fewer than ten healthy pitchers with decent strikeout rates who are expected to hit the open market. These guys should fly off the shelves quickly.
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Sample size.
It's completely pointless to include John Smoltz.
Posted by: ArodSucksAtLife | September 01, 2008 at 03:59 PM
It means Dempster's heading to a bigger paycheck than I thought. Though Perez will likely land a bigger paycheck.
Posted by: start_wearing_purple | September 01, 2008 at 04:49 PM
Not really, since Smoltz would be near the top of the list regardless.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | September 01, 2008 at 04:55 PM
What about Kyle Lohse? As a Cardinal fan, he's been striking out about 5 per 9 innings... Any reason why he was left off this list?
Posted by: mtzxc | September 01, 2008 at 05:05 PM
Yeah Smoltz won't go anywhere. But FYI Smoltz has always been a big strike out guy. Over 3000 career strike outs.
Posted by: XD23 | September 01, 2008 at 05:21 PM
Why not use WHIP as a sign of dominance? SO is an overrated stat.
Posted by: coach king | September 01, 2008 at 05:25 PM
Smoltz "might" be selective about his team??? Excuse me. The only team he's going to is the Braves. Period.
coach king- Very true. K's are important, but if I had to choose between high K/9 and high WHIP vs. low K/9 and low WHIP, I'd pick the latter. Of course, WHIP does take into account a team's defense.
Posted by: melonis rex | September 01, 2008 at 06:22 PM
Not sure why I left out Lohse, I will fix that. Not a WHIP fan, hits allowed can vary wildly year to year.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | September 01, 2008 at 06:27 PM
It means Dempster's heading to a bigger paycheck than I thought. Though Perez will likely land a bigger paycheck.
Dempster is having a monster year...
2.95 ERA 15-5 Record 160Ks 1.19 whip and a 218 BAA... he's goin to see some money - but i think the Cubbies resign him... especially if they win the series..
Posted by: casper | September 01, 2008 at 06:29 PM
But I would be weary of him... This is his contract year and he's having a great year... how many pitchers have had huge years, then sign a nice contract and suck it up the next 4-5 years...
Posted by: casper | September 01, 2008 at 06:30 PM
It is humorous to me that neither Mike Hampton or Ben Sheets were listed as injury risks along with Smoltz, Martinez and Johnson.
Posted by: keehno | September 01, 2008 at 07:19 PM
A.J. Burnett and Brad Penny should probaby be under the injury rist title as well...
Posted by: keehno | September 01, 2008 at 07:21 PM
Penny is an ehhh risk.. Burnett has been pretty healthy the last 2 years
2005 - 32 starts 209IP
2006 - 21 starts 135.2IP
2007 - 25 starts 165.2IP
2008 - 30 starts 186.2IP
Could be better for Burnett, but that's not to bad...
Posted by: casper | September 01, 2008 at 08:20 PM
Wasnt trying to list all injury risks. I was talking about the subset of free agent starters with a K/9 over 6.0. Burnett and Sheets are not risks on the level of those I named.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | September 01, 2008 at 08:48 PM
i think both sheets and sabathia are going to be selective also, they both want to win. the brewers dont have the money to resign them, but dempster definitely going to end up staying with the cubs... is my guess
Posted by: bronx | September 01, 2008 at 09:29 PM
Tim,
I like the idea of looking at stats that are dependent only on individual performance. I am just curious why K/BB wasn't used. Walks are an intrinsic property of pitchers just like SOs are. In addition, a K/9 ratio will usually go down if a BB/9 goes down. You could take it one step further and use seasonK - seasonBB to reflect innings pitched (injury proneness).
Sorry for the long post, I'm an actuary so I look at stats all day and find them interesting.
Long time reader, first time poster. Keep up the good work, the site is awesome and you seem extremely dedicated to your work.
Posted by: EdWadesKoolAidStand | September 01, 2008 at 09:31 PM
Cleveland Indians need to sign RHP A.J. Burnett. They have no shot at Sabathia, Dempster or Sheets so they have to put every effort in A.J. Burnett.
Posted by: ilulic | September 01, 2008 at 10:29 PM
As I noted in my prior post, I believe seasonK - seasonBB would be a better indicator of performance of a pitcher over the course of a season than k/9. Using this stat, here would be the free agent rankings:
Sabathia
Burnett
Johnson
Sheets
Mussina
Dempster
Lowe
Pettitte
Wolf
Perez
Lohse
Maddux
Moyer
Wakefield
I think this seems like a more reasonable assessment of the free agent market. One could argue that we should look at these stats over the course of each players last contract, but I don't have the time to track down those stats.
Posted by: EdWadesKoolAidStand | September 01, 2008 at 11:14 PM
The Rangers need to go get A.J. Burnett or Ben Sheet...They have a great offense,but desperatly need pitching and they can afford those guy...The only teams that can afford the contract Sabathia is looking for are the Yankees and the Dodgers,so Sabathia will either be a Yankee or Dodger next year...Most likely a Yankee though.
Posted by: JT89 | September 02, 2008 at 02:10 AM
Why list Wakefield on the FA list? Is there really a chance that the Sox won't pick up his option?
Posted by: redfoxsox | September 02, 2008 at 10:32 AM