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Elias Rankings: NL Starters
Eddie Bajek has cautioned that his projected Elias rankings may not be perfect. However, it's the closest thing we've got as Eddie is the only person to publicly reverse-engineer the rankings. With that, a look at the NL starters:
- Type A: C.C. Sabathia, Ben Sheets, Oliver Perez, Derek Lowe, and Jamie Moyer. Moyer is on the borderline, so he could possibly end up a Type B. He seems likely to re-sign anyway. The other four will be offered arbitration and could sign elsewhere, netting two draft picks for their old team.
- Type B: Brad Penny, John Smoltz, Randy Wolf, Greg Maddux, Braden Looper. Not all of these guys will be offered arbitration, though Wolf is a good bet.
- Neither A nor B: Randy Johnson, Livan Hernandez, Tom Glavine, Odalis Perez. Johnson just missed Type B, so he might sneak in there. It only really affects the D'Backs.
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I think I remember him earlier being posted as a 'A', but is Dempster really sure of a thing to sign with the Cubs next year?
Posted by: B Fu | October 02, 2008 at 10:56 AM
Seeing this in this type of post made me realize what the brewers could net in draft picks this offseason. All I could think was "wow."
Posted by: JohnKruksWaistLine | October 02, 2008 at 11:24 AM
I’ve been thinking about it, and the more I do the more it makes sense for the Mets to let Ollie walk. Ok, you offer him arb, he refuses and you get 2 draft picks (1 from the team who signs him, and 1 supplemental). Then you go out sign Lowe and give up 1 draft pick, you still end up with 1 supplemental, and a guy who is more consistent.
And this is coming from a guy who's been a HUGE Ollie supporter.
Posted by: GaryKeith&Ron | October 02, 2008 at 11:58 AM
And they're getting all those picks after picking like six times in the first 66 picks or something last year. This team is really setting itself up for a bright future with that core (Fielder, Braun, Hart, Hardy, Weeks, Gallardo) and the guys coming up (Gamel, Escobar, Salome, Jeffress, Odorizzi, Lawrie, etc.) as well as more picks and a management that seems to know pretty well how to use them
Posted by: scribbletone | October 02, 2008 at 12:03 PM
"I’ve been thinking about it, and the more I do the more it makes sense for the Mets to let Ollie walk. Ok, you offer him arb, he refuses and you get 2 draft picks (1 from the team who signs him, and 1 supplemental). Then you go out sign Lowe and give up 1 draft pick, you still end up with 1 supplemental, and a guy who is more consistent.
And this is coming from a guy who's been a HUGE Ollie supporter."
I dont know. I sort of agree, but sort of not. I still want to give Ollie another shot at really being the top of the line pitcher he could be if he just harnesses his stuff, but I am not sure I am willing to gamble 50 million or more on it. If I let him go, I wouldn't sign any type A free agent unless it was Manny or CC. I know I was so against signing Santana, so how could I be for signing CC to a duplicate one, but I just figure f*Ck it, lets just go for it. They are both durable so roll the dice. But I wonder about John Smoltz. Braves fans, what do you think are the chances of Smoltz reasonably reaching the open market? I think the Mets should definitely look into that, Smoltz is a winner, a big game pitcher, and will not cost a draft pick. They did it with Glavine, so why not Smoltzie?
Posted by: nrmax88 | October 02, 2008 at 06:32 PM
And please don't respond with a million posts saying Smoltz will never be a Met so keep dreaming! I just want to know what the chances are the Braves move on.
Posted by: nrmax88 | October 02, 2008 at 06:33 PM
"But I wonder about John Smoltz. Braves fans, what do you think are the chances of Smoltz reasonably reaching the open market? I think the Mets should definitely look into that, Smoltz is a winner, a big game pitcher, and will not cost a draft pick. They did it with Glavine, so why not Smoltzie?"
I like the Smoltz idea in theory, if he is healthy and can be a starter again. However, you have to remember that Glavine was 37 in his first season with the Mets, not 42 like Smoltz would be.
Then again, given the problems the Mets have in the 'pen, I wonder if they could get Smoltz in for something around $5-6 million plus incentives to be their closer?
Posted by: AA | October 02, 2008 at 09:39 PM
True. The closer idea never really came to my mind, although now that you mention it, it does make a ton of sense. Even if they had to pay 10-12 million for Smoltz as their closer for one year, to me that beats the crap out of offering Fuentes 4 years at 10-12 million or K-Rod 5 or 6 years at 15 million. The risk just seems to high for those guys.
Posted by: nrmax88 | October 03, 2008 at 02:26 AM
Why would teams not offer arbitration to all type A and type B free agents so they could get compensation if the player left. Doesn't arbitration only give a player a 1 year contract with a salary comparable to other players with similar stats (i.e. not crazy free agent money). I guess if a player is old and the team thinks the player performance would drop off considerably then maybe don't offer arbitration but what other reasons exist for not offering arbitration?
Posted by: Cincy John | October 07, 2008 at 11:03 PM
I am curious what percentage of type A and type B free agents are not offered arbitration. Or does anyone have a list of the type A and type B free agents from other seasons that were not offered arbitration?
Posted by: Cincy John | October 07, 2008 at 11:04 PM