Jake Peavy Rumors: Thursday

Schafer, Flowers, and Hanson are becoming more and more valuable based on there performance in the fall league.

and yet haren got 2 top prospects and two major league ready middle of the rotation starter.

but the padres will get 1 top prospect?

im trying to take anything away from hanson. he is a top 20 prospect and one of the best in the minors, but ciwilli said "Hanson who is as good a prospect as David Price"

price is considered the best prospect in baseball and is better than hanson in every aspect of the game including being left handed which makes him slighly more valuable.

you cant compare stats when hanson pitched most of the year and has been in minors for 5 or so years while price pitched everywhere from high A to the majors and playoffs in his first year of professional ball

they have been saying that ever since he was in the minors and it hasnt happened yet. im not saying it shouldnt be considered but you cant take that to kevin towers and expect him to lessen the deal.

i doubt the padres are interested in flowers. they are pretty high on hundley and have canham in minors. not saying he isnt all the things you say about him just that the catchers position isnt a hole needed to be filled

^ I wouldn't be so sure. just look at the teixeira deal last summer. The rangers already had a starting catcher in Laird and a highly regarded catcher in the minors in Teagarden, YET they took salty and he was basically the centerpice in that deal. So I wouldn't write off Flowers being apart of a Peavy deal just yet.

my bad i thought he was a braves fan

If for some reason the Padres are interested in Flowers, Law speculates they are. A package with Flowers, Gorkys, Morton, Lilibridge, and one of Medlin/Locke/or Rohrbough would be just as good if not better than the Haren return. Am I off base here Padres fans ?

Seriously why trade for another catching prospect when you already have 25 year old Nick Hundley who managed a .287 OBP in AAA this year. Oh and Mitch Canham, a guy who put up significanly worse numbers than Flowers despite being a year and a half older, playing at the same level, and playing in a more hitter friendly league.

Besides, if the Rangers plethora of catching has taught us anything its that nobody has any interest in good catching prospects and they aren't very useful as trade chips.

.283 .376 .420

.288 .427 .494

significant? not quite significant but his numbers were still very good and i never said he was better simply that we have a good C prospect at the same level

Flowers is a pretty good hitting prospect. 17 HR and 98 walks? That's pretty good power/OBP ability for a catcher. (and the Canham kid does have pretty good offensive numbers for a catcher).

I'm not eager to pawn Flowers off to SD anyway. Braves have traded two great catching prospects (Salty and Max Ramirez) in recent years. I'd rather let him develop in case McCann goes down. (not that he's "untouchable", of course).

I still think something like Escobar, Morton, Medlen, Rorhbough and Locke, for Peavy and Greene, makes sense.

Padres get:

bigtime salary relief:

a quality (not superstar) starting shortstop at low cost;

an ML-ready starter (and I think SD fans sell Morton short... he's got top-rotation stuff, just hasn't learned to use it yet);

a ML-league ready pitcher (most scouts think Medlen is ready... probably better used as a mid reliever, though);

a big upside lefty (Rohrbough) with great strikeout stuff and potential;

another top quality lefty who most say is our best A-level pitching prospect.

I never suggested that Flowers should be the centerpiece for Peavy, just that he should still hold a lot of value as a 3rd or 4th player. I'm thinking something along the lines of KJ, Morton, Rohrbough, and Flowers. That's an above average starting 2B (who isn't going to be that expensive since he wasn't playing for an entire year he was earning service time), a high upside (low 90's fastball with a real deceptive 80 MPH change)ML ready pitcher in Morton, the highest upside pitcher we have other than Hanson, and one of the better offensive C prospects in the game. That seems like it might at least be a decent starting point.

tsweet, I know. Believe me, I'd hate losing each and every one of those guys.

But, with Hanson (and I still think Reyes can be a decent #5), and guys like Evarts (when healthy), Osuna, Rodgers, Diamond... and Marek, who I think can be a mid-rotation starter... and of course adding Peavy... and our #7 draft pick this year... I think it'll be okay.

"cwilli specifically, if none of these guys are good enough to be at the center of a Peavy trade, then who actually is?"

I would prefer a deal includes one top 10 prospect, and then low level prospects. I would prefer someone like Colby Rasmus plus filler prospects as opposed to 2 good prospects and even though Escobar has performed well I would prefer no to have him in the deal, don't care for his make up. Not trying to discredit them, just my preference. I would prefer to keep Peavy unless the Padres get someone in return that has the a ceiling that is equivalent to the level Peavy is currently at.

AtlantaMike,

Good call on Morton. Smoltz absolutely raved about his stuff (if not his makeup) last season. I think he was rushed to the majors due to all the injuries to the rotation. Let him pitch in an aircraft hangar like Petco and he could shine.

Jo-Jo, KJ, Soriano and Morton.

Peavy is worth it.

Nixa37: I think my biggest problem with KJ is that he only has 3 years of team control left, though he might be cheap its still only 3 years. And we wanted players we can control for 5+ years according to DePo.

AtlantaMike i like the idea of getting 4 pitchers back, but i am sure that the Padres would think Peavy is worth an above average SS and 1 mid rotation starter, and 2 lower level pitchers, and Green being worth one lower level pitcher. Thats something to think about, Greene is not going to be thrown into any deal, they made that clear as well.

When the GM says we aren't going to trade our top prospects for even Peavy, it's pretty certain...lol.

Airman, well, there's always Gorkys Hernandez; I really like the guy, but he's at least a year away ... I don't see the Braves trading Schafer, simply because I think they NEED him next year (maybe not opening day, but by midseason).

Escobar is a real interesting player. He makes stunning plays, comes up with big hits, and really does hit the ball hard. But he's not really a homerun hitter like Hanley, or a base-stealer like Reyes... so it's hard to assign a value to him. I'd say he's well above average, but given the quality of shortstops (especially in the NL East), hard to say he'll be an allstar.

Anyway, I'm trying to be realistic - not to lowball the offer, but keeping the Braves' priorities in mind.

I was the one who posted Price and Hanson's stats for this season. I didn't do it to suggest Hanson was David Price. My point was they had very similar numbers,are both 6'6, and Hanson is a year younger, yet he gets no respect as a top prospect

Price is a league by himself, if this hanson guy was in the same class with Price he would have been up with the Braves already. He might be good but from what i seen on this site he is projected as a 2/3 starter. Price is a legit number 1 hes the best pitcher on the rays staff. so clear up that confusion. as it was said in the post before to get something you have to give something.

nixa37,
Rasmus has a higher ceiling in my opinion based on power numbers, plus if you compare his AA numbers as a 20 year old to Schafer's this year as a 21 year old, they are quite a bit better. He is 21 and in AAA, he may not pan out but the again that can be said with regards to any prospect.

Has anyone actually linked to anything that says Hanson projects as a #2/#3 instead of an ace? I don't understand why a guy who with a mid 90's fastball, good to great breaking stuff, and an average changeup with his sort of dominating numbers at AA (10.5 K/9 and 2.8 K:BB) doesn't project as an ace.

nixa37, some Padre scout made that comment about Hanson. (couldn't have been any agenda connected to that, could there?)

If anything, I we can rule out a package with multiple top prospects based on Wrens comments. He may still be willing to trade a Schafer or a Hanson but the chances of both of them going to the Padres are very slim.

cwilli,

Schafer has some pretty massive power potential as well, putting up 18 2B, 6 3B, and 10 HR in less than 300 AB's. Schafer's numbers were also at a similar level to Rasmus' numbers at AA once he was able to shake off the rust that's sure to come with a 50 G suspension. I believe he had an OPS of over 1000 after the all star break.

I just don't see a big enough difference to justify making a deal for Rasmus and filler, but not Schafer and much better secondary guys.

Chuck James is like 5'9 and barely throws 90. Chuck James is a 2 pitch pitcher. When you Hanson's numbers to the fact that he is 6'6 and has 4 plus pitches its pretty impressive.

"Chuck James is like 5'9 and barely throws 90. Chuck James is a 2 pitch pitcher. When you Hanson's numbers to the fact that he is 6'6 and has 4 plus pitches its pretty impressive."

Not disagreeing with that but just explaining that there may be reasoning behind the scout pegging him as a 2/3.

Nixa37, its not just a question of power, but can he sustain it. The major question about Schafer is will he be the same player without HGH (and trust me i believe he will, and i agree it was crap evidence that got him the suspension, but that question still exists). He has to prove it more than he did, can he sustain that power.

"i cant believe that someone is trying to put escobar in the class with reyes/hanley/jimmy. hes gonna be a good ss but dont him in that class."

This isn't really as far fetched as you might think

Yunel: .288/10/60/.366/.401
Jimmy: .277/11/59/.349/.437
Reyes: .297/16/68/.358/.475
Hanley: .301/33/67/.400/.540

Clearly, Hanley is the king here offensively, and when you add in the speed of Reyes and Rollins, Yunel is going to end up as the fourth wheel...

However, when you consider Yunel plays the best defense of any SS in the NL (with the exception of maybe Rollins, it's debatable) and you consider he was playing with a nagging shoulder injury that seemed to sap him of most of his power last year (just look at the slugging %, mainly doubles hit, from 2007 to 2008), he's not as far off as a complete player as you're implying.

My bad, Kyle Davies is a better comp, based on that then, not Chuck James.

dudetheplayer I agree with you however Escobar is better on defense than Hanely and you could argue who is the better of the remaining three. Escobar does not get SB's like the other guys though. Thats his big downside. If Escobar put up SB's like Hanely, Reyes or Jimmy the Braves would be a different team. But I do think its a fair comparison.

I read some where this week that the perfect game he pitched was the first time he threw the slider in game action.

By the way, Yunel "was the single best defensive shortstop in the majors, according to some fielding metrics, and though you might not realize it he was one of the best offensive shortstops in baseball too. He had the third-highest OBP among all major league starting shortstops, and despite a shoulder injury that sapped his power for much of the season he still had the 9th-highest OPS+."

Dudetheplayer, can we get rid of that kind of statement he is the best defensively in the NL. He is equal with the best, but he is not by himself.

(FP/RF/ZR) (2008 numbers)
Rollins:.988/4.52/.855
Escobar:.974/4.79/.837
Greene:.982/4.19/.852
Hardy:..977/4.49/.813

And the king is...

Tulowitzki:.984/5.22/.847
and since he missed a good part of last year... his career numbers:
.986/5.27/.853

If you wanted to say out of the NL East, ok, i might buy that, but not the whole NL.

ROFLMAO@Braves Fans who honestly belive that a pitcher who had over a 5 ERA in the majors last year and bunch of AA prospects is going to land them Peavy.

Sorry, but the Padres would laugh and hang up the phone at that offer and then turn around and take what the Astros or Dodgers had to offer because both those clubs can do better than the really lame Reyes, Medlin, Lillibridge, Heath and Pope offer!

they have no need for hernandez they have hunter at the the same level and hes better.

morton looks like a decent 3-5 starter potential.

lillibridge would not be an upgrade over greene and will never be more than a defensive shortstop/utility player

medlin has a lot of potential but isnt considered a top prospect.

you think that is close? its not about what the braves are willing to give up as much as what the padres wants and needs are. this proposed deal is one of the worst ive seen on here.

Obviously not *EVERYONE* knows that otherwise your fellow-fan wouldn't have posted that...LOL

smhg30: I hope that is a joke man. Cause for starters, A-gon is not going anywhere, not when he wont be paid more the 5.5 mil till 2012 (signed thur 2011). Second Kotchman is going to be more expensive than Gonzalez in two years. Third, you named two of their "untouchables" in that deal. Fourth it give the Padres two arms, one good one league avg., and fifth why a catcher?

we'll see airman. Gonzalez wont be in San Diego for long.
By the way Kotchman wont be more exspensive in 2 years. Check out his contract

we have gonzo through 2011 for 5.5 or less each year. he would require more than peavy. hes one of the best first baseman in baseball offensively and defensively.

Bkoke ... assuming one of the four isn't Teheran, that seems like a very reasonable proposal.

Checked the contract smhg30... its for 09:3mil, 10:4.75mil 11:5.5mil (option no buyout)
Kotchman: arbitration eligible, this year made 1.45mil, compared to Gonzalez's .75 mil.

So i believe he will be more money than Gonzalez, either this coming year or the next.

desertbraves do you honestly think that any team in baseball would trade peavy to the braves and not get even 1 of hanson, schafer, or heyward?

Padres fans that think they are getting Schafer, Hanson, and Esco are trippin on some shrooms or something. Straight up hallucinating. As a Met fan, I would be thrilled if the Braves moved all those parts for Peavy. There is not reason why some combo or Rohrbough, Gorkys, KJ/Prado, Morton, Lillibridge, Jones, Blanco, Locke, Sumoza, etc can't get it done. There is really no reason for the Braves to move one of those guys, let alone all 3. They are in the drivers seat. Peavy's value isn't going up from here, but down. The Braves are the only real suitor there is. Out of the 5 teams Peavy will go to, only Atl can get it done. If Peavy is not willing to go to those other 9 teams, it really makes no difference what kind of package they have on the table.

And Keith Law again proves he is the voice of reason, and gives further evidence why he is the best in the business at what he does. Get'em Keith.

Bkoke,

More valuable than that? The Padres lost 99 games WITH Peavy. Like I said, the Braves should move on, and get other deals in the works.

"Padres fans that think they are getting Schafer, Hanson, and Esco are trippin on some shrooms or something. Straight up hallucinating. As a Met fan, I would be thrilled if the Braves moved all those parts for Peavy. There is not reason why some combo or Rohrbough, Gorkys, KJ/Prado, Morton, Lillibridge, Jones, Blanco, Locke, Sumoza, etc can't get it done. There is really no reason for the Braves to move one of those guys, let alone all 3. They are in the drivers seat. Peavy's value isn't going up from here, but down."

I agree for the most part. The Braves probably wouldn't have to put in one of Hanson, Escobar and Schafer, but they likely will. If the Braves offered something like Kelly Johnson, Gorkys Hernandez, Cole Rohrbrough and a fourth prospect, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Padres accept that offer. But I do honestly believe that if the Cubs were willing to include Vitters, Ceda, and Colvin in a package, it would likely cause some pause from San Diego. Obviously there are no indications that the Cubs would even consider a deal like that, but I feel like that could easily compete with a Braves offer that didn't include any of Hanson, Schafer and Escobar.

After all of the progressions in the rumors I've seen I would guess that the deal would go along the lines of this:

Peavy for Tommy Hanson, one of Schafer and Hernandez, and then depending on which player the Padres choose, they would receive two guys from a group of Reyes, Lillibridge, Jones, Locke, Rohrbrough, Prado, Morton and Blanco. I just don't think a deal gets done unless it includes Tommy Hanson. That farm system is so lacking in top of the rotation arms that adding Hanson would be a major acquisition for that organization.

"cc got laport #23 baseball america

harden got gonzalez #22 anderson #36

santana got #52 gomez + mulvey and humber"

Whoa. Let me just correct this.

For Sabathia, the Indians landed LaPorta (BA #23), Rob Bryson, Michael Brantley and Zach Jackson.

For HAREN, the A's received Carlos Gonzalez (BA #22), Brett Anderson (BA #36), Greg Smith, Dana Eveland, Chris Carter and Aaron Cunningham.

For Santana, the Twins received Carlos Gomez (BA #52), Deolis Guerra (BA #35), Kevin Mulvey and Phil Humber.

I think that to be fair, the standard price for an ace is two top prospects and depending on those prospets and the pitcher being traded, additional other young players.

Sabathia only landed the Indians LaPorta because the Indians were craving a young power bat and LaPorta fits the profile. They got three other solid young players, but the best one (Bryson) blew out his elbow not too long after joining Cleveland.

Good we are in agreement. You keep Peavy, and we will keep our prospects and hopefully contend in the next year of two. Go Braves 2010!!!

Scribble, yeah, the Cubs could trump an offer like that without one of the big 3 from Atl, but I don't see them gutting the system and adding another pretty big pitching contract to the payroll, a year after inking big Z, and considering the risk involved with Peavy.