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2009 Top 50 Free Agents
It's time for the third annual MLB Trade Rumors Top 50 Free Agents list! The entire list of available free agents can be found here.
A note before we begin - this is a complicated puzzle, and I'll be satisfied if I'm correct on a quarter of these guesses. If your favorite team seems under-represented, keep in mind that the list doesn't account for trades or every single free agent.
1. C.C. Sabathia - Yankees. The guess here is that the Yankees will make C.C. an offer he can't refuse, and he'll sign a seven-year deal. Sabathia is the key to the Yankees' offseason.
2. Mark Teixeira - Angels. The Angels can probably afford one of Sabathia, Teixeira, and K-Rod. They need Tex the most.
3. Manny Ramirez - Dodgers. I think Manny will ultimately sign a deal in the four-year, $100MM range.
4. Francisco Rodriguez - Mets. The buzz at the time of this writing is that the Mets will pass on K-Rod and look to sign Fuentes. However, there aren't many big-money teams with closer vacancies, and I can see Rodriguez's price dipping down to the four-year, $56MM range.
5. A.J. Burnett - Orioles. I am uneasy about this prediction. We know Burnett would like to play there, but will the O's even enter the bidding? They do need starting pitching badly, and theoretically Burnett will still be effective when they are ready to contend.
6. Derek Lowe - Yankees. This would set up a rotation of Sabathia/Wang/Lowe/Pettitte/Chamberlain. Very solid on paper.
7. Orlando Hudson - Cardinals. Hudson, the top free agent second baseman, would be a large upgrade over Adam Kennedy.
8. Adam Dunn - Nationals. The Nats attempted to make a free agent splash last year with Torii Hunter. They're known to be looking for a cleanup hitter.
9. Ryan Dempster - Cubs. Seems to be Jim Hendry's top offseason priority. The two have a strong relationship, but Dempster may still score a competitive four-year contract. It should be noted that Hendry has a strong record of keeping his own free agents when he wants to, despite much hand-wringing leading up to each signing.
10. Ben Sheets - Braves. Under this scenario, the Braves are unable to land Jake Peavy via trade. Sheets is one of many possible free agent pitchers the Braves may consider. The Red Sox or Dodgers could be other suitors.
11. Mike Mussina - Retirement. I will go with the media sentiment that Moose is set to retire despite such a strong 2008.
12. Raul Ibanez - Braves. Even after bringing in two starters, they'll have money left over for left field.
13. Pat Burrell - Rays. Burrell belongs in the AL, and the Rays have an open DH spot and the need for a righthanded hitter.
14. Bobby Abreu - Cubs. His defense isn't a perfect fit at Wrigley, but they do crave a left-handed middle of the order bat. Fitting his salary in could be tricky.
15. Brian Fuentes - Brewers. If C.C. signs elsewhere, the Brewers will be able to spread their cash to fill various needs.
16. Andy Pettitte - Yankees. Once again, it's Yankees or retirement for Pettitte.
17. Rafael Furcal - Dodgers. The interest is mutual. Furcal is the top free agent shortstop.
18. Casey Blake - Twins. If the Twins don't like the asking prices for Garrett Atkins and Adrian Beltre, Blake may be the best third baseman on the free agent market.
19. Milton Bradley - Blue Jays. The buzz is that the Jays will take a look at Giambi, but Bradley is a nice fit as well at DH.
20. Jason Giambi - Athletics. The A's are looking for a power hitter on a short-term deal, so a reunion makes sense.
21. Orlando Cabrera - Twins. Completing the Twins' new-look infield. Blake and Cabrera should be capable of league-average production.
22. Jamie Moyer - Phillies. The seventh-best free agent starter, based on 2008 numbers. The Phils may look to add an additional starter for depth.
23. Kerry Wood - Cubs. A longtime Cub with a strong relationship with Hendry. Moving Marmol to the closer role would weaken the Cubs' pen overall, so they'll try to hammer something out.
24. Kenshin Kawakami - Red Sox. Signing Kawakami for the rotation would allow the Sox to keep Masterson in the pen and let Bowden and Buchholz come along at their own pace.
25. Randy Johnson - Angels. An improvement on Garland, and they get the bonus of his 300th win.
26. Oliver Perez - Dodgers. One possible fit for Perez, who is just 27 years old. There is a strong San Diego connection, but you have to figure money will get in the way (Perez is represented by Scott Boras).
27. Randy Wolf - Astros. Ed Wade has long been a fan of Wolf, and hopes to re-sign him. There won't be much money left over after that.
28. Mark Grudzielanek - Indians. Grudz only makes sense here if the Indians miss out on bigger infield targets and shift Jhonny Peralta and Asdrubal Cabrera.
29. Ray Durham - Diamondbacks. The D'Backs figure to add one of the veteran second basemen on a short-term deal.
30. John Smoltz - Braves. I see no reason Smoltz would leave after all these years.
31. Ivan Rodriguez - Mets. Omar Minaya seems to be a fan, and Pudge may provide an upgrade behind the plate on a one-year deal.
32. Freddy Garcia - Indians. Not sure if he'll sign for one year, but Garcia could stabilize a shaky rotation.
33. Trevor Hoffman - Padres. Can you picture him playing anywhere else?
34. Brad Penny - Blue Jays. Not that the Jays need more injury risk, but they've been connected to Penny in trade talks before.
35. Jeremy Affeldt - Indians. Affeldt could be a creative closer candidate for the Tribe. He may jump at the opportunity to pitch the ninth inning.
36. Jon Garland - Brewers. If Sabathia and Sheets leave, Garland can step in to eat some innings.
37. Paul Byrd - Pirates. The Pirates are said to want to add a veteran starter to the rotation. Neal Huntington knows Byrd from his Cleveland days.
38. Braden Looper - Giants. If Jonathan Sanchez is traded for a power hitter, the Giants might want a veteran to soak up innings.
39. Edgar Renteria - Cardinals. The American League hasn't worked out for Renteria. If he'll take a one-year deal, the Cardinals could bring him back. Pairing him with a (hopefully) strong defender like Hudson could work.
40. Joe Crede - Dodgers. If Crede can get past back problems, he might be a bargain on a one-year deal.
41. Koji Uehara - Royals. The Royals were interested in Hiroki Kuroda last year. Maybe they'll add some rotation depth with Uehara.
42. Nick Punto - Rays. Cork Gaines suggested this idea to me. Seems feasible, unless Punto craves a starting job.
43. Damaso Marte - Cardinals. I thought the Yanks would exercise his $6MM option, but a recent report indicated otherwise. The Cardinals appear willing to spend some coin on a lefty reliever.
44. Juan Cruz - Tigers. A dark horse closing candidate, if he can improve his control. The Tigers don't have much money to work with this winter.
45. Mark Kotsay - Reds. Kotsay can step in at center field for a year to allow younger players to come along.
46. Jason Varitek - Red Sox. Tek may find that no team is willing to give him an acceptable multiyear deal.
47. Garret Anderson - Angels. The Halos will decline his $14MM option, but may look to bring him back at a lower salary.
48. Odalis Perez - Nationals. They need a veteran to eat innings, and Perez is as good as any. If he demands multiple years, the Nats may choose to move on.
49. Felipe Lopez - Orioles. Lopez mashed with the Cards, though it was a short stint. If Scott Boras doesn't get crazy over those 169 plate appearances, the Orioles could give him a shot on a one-year deal.
50. Jim Edmonds - Mariners. On a one-year deal, Edmonds could play center or DH against righthanders.
Honorable mentions: Rocco Baldelli, Joe Beimel, Doug Brocail, David Eckstein, Tom Glavine, Jerry Hairston Jr., Eric Hinske, Chan Ho Park, Jason Isringhausen, Cesar Izturis, Greg Maddux, Kevin Millar, Tomohiro Nioka, Darren Oliver, Miguel Olivo, Juan Rivera, David Weathers
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Soxcurse,
Last year I would have agreed with what you were saying, but at the moment I actually like the Mets trade more than the bosox' offer. It makes sense if you look at it in terms of building for 2010 which is when the Twins will have a new stadium. That is when Guerra is expected to make the jump to the majors. Also, Gomez still has a lot of untapped potential and may yet prove to be as good a player as Jacoby.
Posted by: Go-Go | November 07, 2008 at 02:08 AM
Predicting where all these guys end up is a total crapshoot, but these rankings are laughable. Am I the only one who thinks Freddy Garcia at #32 is absolutely ridiculous? He's on the same level of Mark Mulder, Mark Prior, Kris Benson, etc. These rankings also show your utter lack of understanding of how individual players affect a team. That is the only explanantion for your exclusion of at least a half-dozen relief pitchers who will have significantly more impact on whichever teams they sign with than the likes of Felipe Lopez, Jason Giambi, Orlando Cabrera, Mark Kotsay. Position players like that are a dime a dozen and most teams have a guy in their farm system that can give them similar production if given AB's, albeit at 1/8 of the price. Giambi #20, Cabrera #21, Moyer #22, did you watch any of these guys last year or are you basing this of the back of their baseball cards?
Posted by: glenallen's hill | November 08, 2008 at 11:01 AM
if i were the sox i would trade mike lowell, put youk at third and sign tex. with tek, i dont know they should just be creative
Posted by: JR | November 10, 2008 at 05:19 PM
Call Me Crazy & I don't know if they got the cap space to do it but what if C.C. signed with the D-Backs. That'd be one killer trio of Haren, Webb, & C.C.
Posted by: Ms4life | November 12, 2008 at 08:17 PM
Right the White sox will just stand pat and not sign a single free agent while their division rivals sign several top 50 guys. Sure good call.
Posted by: CHISOX09 | November 13, 2008 at 01:36 AM
Tim, how do the dodgers go about signing manny, furcal, and oliver perez in one year? wouldnt they lose like 4 draft picks if they do so? and where is all this money coming from???
Posted by: give me vlad and fuentes | November 13, 2008 at 01:45 AM
what the twins would look like with blake and cabrera!
span-rf
casilla-2b
mauer-c
morneau-1b
kubel-dh
blake-3b
cabrera-ss
young-lf
gomez-cf
Posted by: R.I.P. Kirby | November 13, 2008 at 08:32 PM
Mines alittle off face with some others I have
Aberu-Orioles
Bradley-Giants
Burnett-RedSox
Burrell-D-Backs
Dempster-Cubs
Dunn-Rangers
Furcal-Dodgers
Lowe-BlueJays
Perez-Dodgers
Ramirez-Yankees
F.Rodriguez-Tigers
C.C.-Yankees
Sheets-Brewers
Texiera-Angels
Wood-after all thats gone down im still staying with the Cubs
Posted by: CincyReds | November 15, 2008 at 07:22 AM
Heres who the sox are really going to get
1.Tex
2.Lowe
3.Taylor Teagerden
Posted by: soxfan#1 | November 15, 2008 at 09:29 AM
Mines alittle off face with some others I have
Aberu-Orioles
Bradley-Giants
Burnett-RedSox
Burrell-D-Backs
Dempster-Cubs
Dunn-Rangers
Furcal-Dodgers
Lowe-BlueJays
Perez-Dodgers
Ramirez-Yankees
F.Rodriguez-Tigers
C.C.-Yankees
Sheets-Brewers
Texiera-Angels
Wood-after all thats gone down im still staying with the Cubs
Posted by: CincyReds
you need to re-think these buddy
Aberu-Orioles...first of all, it's Abreu and the Orioles have a surplus of OF's and they aren't going to compete in the next few years, why would they sign an aging player past his prime like Bobby Abreu
Bradley-Giants
Milton Bradley cannot play the field, he's injury prone enough as a DH
Burnett-RedSox
the Red Sox don't need SP that bad, he's gonna cost too much
Burrell-D-Backs
Diamondbacks have too many OF's as it is and only NL teams badly in need of power with an outfield spot will consider him, he will want 4 or 5yrs and he can barely play LF now, look for him to go to the Rays as a DH if the Braves or Phillies don't sign him
Dempster-Cubs
yes
Dunn-Rangers
their main need is pitching, they have enough power
Furcal-Dodgers
you could be right, it's hard to tell where he'll land
Lowe-BlueJays
I think they'll try, but someone who is more of a contender will either outbid them or give a similar bid and win because they have a better shot at a title
Perez-Dodgers
tough to tell, but maybe
Ramirez-Yankees
no way in hell
F.Rodriguez-Tigers
I don't think they can afford him, would be a great fit though
C.C.-Yankees
very likely, I hope not though
Sheets-Brewers
I think he goes Braves
Texiera-Angels
yep
Wood-after all thats gone down im still staying with the Cubs
I believe this is still possible as well
Posted by: MDWhiteSoxFan | November 17, 2008 at 10:36 AM
You seem to have forgotten that the Mets only have three starting pitchers. They are going to sign one starting pitcher and probably will re-sign Perez.
Posted by: Mingo | November 19, 2008 at 07:55 PM
My predictions:
CC--Angels
Tex--Yankees
Ramirez--Mets
Burnett--Braves
Lowe--Yankees
Hudson--Cardinals
Dunn--Giants
Sheets--Dodgers
Ibanez--Cubs
Burrell--Nationals
Abreu--Giants
Fuentes--Cardinals
Pettite--Dodgers
Furcal--As
Blake--Twins
Bradley--Rangers
Giambi--As
Cabrera--Tigers
Moyer--Retires
Wood--Rangers
Johnson--Astros
Perez--Mets
Wolf--Astros
Grudz--Twins
Durham--D'Backs
Smoltz--Braves
Rodriguez--Marlins
Garcia--Retires
Hoffman--Tigers
Penny--Orioles
Garland--Brewers
Byrd--Brewers
Looper--Phillies
Renteria--Giants
Crede--Dodgers
Punto--Orioles
Cruz--Indians
Kotsay--White Sox
Varitek--Mets
Anderson--Padres
Perez--Pirates
Lopez--Astros
Edmonds--As
Beimel--Tigers
Glavine--Retires
Eckstein--Dodgers
Hinske--Pirates
Hairston--Reds
Park--Padres
Isringhausen--Indians
Rivera--Braves
Millar--Braves
Weathers--Rockies
Posted by: iowacubs | November 28, 2008 at 11:55 PM
I like how the Yankees pretty much clean up on the free agent market and the Sox don't even make the list til #24. I say Sox get Tex. Epstein knows that not only does he have to worry about the Yankees with a lot of money to spend but now the Rays too. Sorry but the Sox lost a lot of big money this year too and Theo will have plenty of money to spend. No way they don't get someone that will help put them over the top.
Posted by: evilsauron2 | November 29, 2008 at 04:35 AM
Oh and Iowa you don't ven have the Sox on your list. You guys are gonna be shocked when this offseason is over
Posted by: evilsauron2 | November 29, 2008 at 04:36 AM
clarknaddison,
lets just face it. all gms are latinizing their teams these days because there are just far more top of the line latin players than white players. i wouldn't mind seeing my mets get more latinized if it means we can be more competitive.
Posted by: Head_Hunter | December 13, 2008 at 10:41 PM
There are some good calls here.
Posted by: mynameborat | January 06, 2009 at 07:14 PM
How many guys did the Red sox sign
Posted by: redsoxfan17 | January 12, 2009 at 04:59 PM
This list has not panned out has it.
Posted by: Dj 26 | January 17, 2009 at 10:57 AM
not 100percent he only expected a quarter correct
Posted by: mynameborat | January 20, 2009 at 08:42 PM
Nice list! You nailed more of these than most people I've seen, very impressed.
Posted by: CubbyFan23 | January 22, 2009 at 02:30 PM
I laugh at all the people who said that the Yanks signing Sabathia, Burnett and Tex would b impossible!!!
I didn't expect it either tho....
(not a Yanks fan)
Posted by: pskip13 | January 25, 2009 at 08:14 AM
Of the 50 Free Agents Guessed at, he got 11 of the 40 that have signed or retired correct.
Although the Sabathia, Furcal, Moyer, Pettitte, Dempster, K-Rod, Varitek and Mussina
"guesses" were pretty much a consensus thing anyway..
So basically he nailed 3 right on the Nail!
Way to Go!
It also amused me to see how he mentioned such players as "top 50" Free Agents including Pinto, Durham, Grudzielanek, and Mark Kotsay and not put someone like Ken Griffey up there... and the "honorable mentions" deserved better than them guys too..
So what does this tell us?
That even the most "informed" people in baseball really have no clue what happens behind the scenes of signing free agents.
Posted by: FyreKnight | February 25, 2009 at 11:22 PM
It'll go down like this...
Sabathia-Yankees
K-Rod-Mets
Blake-Dodgers
Orlando Cabrera-A's
Tex-Yankees
Abreu-Angels
Burnett-Yankees
Giambi-A's
Lowe-Braves
Randy Johnson-Giants
Randy Wolf-Dodgers
Dunn-Nationals
Zimmerman-Nationals
Swisher-Yankees
Garland-Dimondbacks
Peavy-Padres
Marte-Yankees
Bay-Red Sox
Hoffman-Brewers
Burrell-Rays
Moyer-Phillies
Pettite-Yankees
Mussina-Retirement
Kent-Retirement
Ibanez-Phillies
Penny-Red Sox
Varitek-Red Sox
Posted by: yanksllwin | August 09, 2009 at 03:16 PM
"Having a big budget is one thing, but Cashman is not going to sign Burnett, Sabathia AND Teixeira. I will eat my hat if they even sign any combination of two of them."
-0bessions
I trust it tasted good?
Posted by: Tomahawk368 | November 01, 2009 at 05:44 AM