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« Royals Sign J.R. House | Main | Rosenthal's Latest: Peavy, Wilson »
Rosenthal's Latest: Dunn, Wood, Sheets
Ken Rosenthal suggests that in this economy some teams may not offer arbitration to Type A free agents to avoid risking a payroll hit. Further, some players may opt to accept the certainty of arbitration over "a volatile free agent period."
The Dbacks were always expected to offer arbitration to Adam Dunn and he was expected to decline thus netting Arizona two draft picks to compensate for the three players they dealt in August. In arbitration, Dunn would command $15-16MM. Says Rosenthal,
"...if the D-backs made the offer, it's doubtful that Dunn and his agents would determine by midnight Saturday that a multiyear contract was beyond their reach. What's more, the D-backs always could trade Dunn if he accepted their offer. In that sense, he would be an asset on a one-year deal; the Nationals, among other teams, would jump."
In arbitration, Kerry Wood would get around $9-10MM per year but it's obvious the Cubs are not interested in even one year at that price - that money is better spent improving the rotation. The Cubs see Carlos Marmol, not Wood, as their closer and have opted to replace their setup man by trading for Kevin Gregg rather than paying Wood to slot into the role. Rosenthal notes Wood said he would have returned on a one year deal, and if he were to accept arbitration then the Cubs would most likely look to deal him - perhaps to the Rangers?
Rosenthal also points out that arbitration contracts are not guaranteed, but releasing Wood in Spring Training would result in a grievance by the players union. It would be hard to justify releasing a player of Wood's caliber.
Ben Sheets could command $13-14MM in arbitration and for an ace-quality pitcher that's reasonable. Rosenthal makes this easy:
"If the Brewers fail to offer Sheets arbitration, it will be a clear indication that club officials are concerned about his ability to stay healthy in 2009. And remember, the Brewers know Sheets better than any other team."
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I think the Brewers should offer Sheets arbitration. He's their stopgap frontline starter, allowing Gallardo to develop in the 2 spot and filling out the rotation until Jeremy Jeffress is ready. Their chances of getting CC are slim-to-none, and even then, I don't think they should sign him b/c it would take up way too high a portion of their payroll. And, I still don't see Sheets accepting, but it wouldn't hurt the Brew Crew if he accepts.
Wood will be a media fiasco when he accepts arbitration, its almost certain. Cubs shouldn't even bother offering arbitration, especially with the interest in Raul Ibanez, Jake Peavy, etc.
Posted by: melonis rex | November 30, 2008 at 10:07 AM
1) Why does Mark Melancon's name appear in the Categories below the article?
2) Offering Arbitration to Ben Sheets is a smart idea:
> He accepts they have their ace
> He leaves they get daft picks and let the young guns develop
3) I dont get the whole piece about suggesting the Cubs sign Wood and trade him to the Rangers. In my opinion the Rangers would be better off (if Wood signed with the Cubs) looking to acquire their closer via free agency instead of giving up a prospect.
Posted by: Rolling{Night}Hawk{09} | November 30, 2008 at 10:16 AM
How come everyone under the sun has the Cubs needing to fortify their rotation when Lou was quoted as basically saying their rotation is fine and they need another veteran presence in the bullpen?
These guys need to get on the same page.
Posted by: wonderdog4 | November 30, 2008 at 10:19 AM
"How come everyone under the sun has the Cubs needing to fortify their rotation when Lou was quoted as basically saying their rotation is fine and they need another veteran presence in the bullpen?"
Might have to do with Dempster, Lilly and marquis being 3/5ths of the rotation and Zambrano/Harden being the anchors with both being injured late last year. The Dempster/Lilly it is very possible that 1 of those will not have the same season they did in 2008, marquis is no playoff team starter and who knows how the health of both Harden and Zambrano will be in 2009.
Posted by: johns | November 30, 2008 at 11:51 AM
"marquis is no playoff team starter"
LOL, classic.
All four Braves teams Marquis played on (2000-2003) went to the postseason.
All three Cardinal teams Marquis played on (2004-2006) went to the postseason.
And now both his Cub teams have gone to the postseason (2007 and 2008).
Fantastic point there, John!
Posted by: davearm | November 30, 2008 at 11:59 PM
For the teams you just named when was marquis taken along in the rotation when they were in the playoffs.. He's not good enough to start in the playoffs. He never has been good enough, he just eats innings in the regular season and to pay him 9.whatever million for that is way to much.
Posted by: dontknomuchyo | December 01, 2008 at 02:01 PM