Peavy-Boston Possibility

You'd have to think that adding Peavy and Teixiera to the Red Sox would completely trump whatever the Yanks could possibly do this offseason.

IF the sox got both Peavy and Tex you know the yanks would def up their pursuit of Manny.

If the Sox were to get Peavy AND Tex, we'd have to suspend the league. I'll put the over/under on World Series titles over the next 5 years at 3.5

Looks like the Angels and red Sox will be going head to head on more players than just Tex. Finally a team who has the prospects to get it done. A nice way to counter NY acquiring CC as well.

Not sure why you think peavy or CC has injury risk on the same level as AJ burnett...

Here are the main hurdles that the Padres and sox are going to have to jump over and that will ultimately kill the deal:

1. Towers is going to want Buchholz, Lowrie and prob one other pitching prospect (mid level nothing special)
2. Peavy is going to want a full NTC (which I don’t think Boston gives out do they?)
3. Peavy is going to want a pay increase since he took a San Diego discount and is moving to the AL and what is considered to be a hitters park.

Here’s why I don’t think it will work out, since Peavy will demand a pay increase and/or for the sox to pick up his $22 mil option I don’t think the sox would be willing to give up such a large package for him, also I think that not giving him a full NTC would be a deal breaker as well.

At this point I think unless the Angles put together a great package for him Peavy will remain a Padres until the trade deadline and be shopped to a contender who has had a few pitching injuries and is desperate for an Ace…by that point the Padres will be way out of it and Peavy will be desperate to jump ship and will lessen his demands.

I think as long as they can keep Masterson, the Sox have enough prospects (including Anderson) to pull both Peavy and a young catcher. You would have longterm youth at every position except LF,RF and DH. The lineup and rotation would be set for years, at which point the Sox' 19-21 year old prospects would start approaching MLB ready.

I say DO IT!!!

All pitchers are subject to injury no? You could have 3 solid seasons and be out for 1 (Wang) or have several consecutive seasons of being injured and then come out as a star.

Making the point that any high net worth pitcher signing or trade is risky regardless and the Sox, my opinion may not come out the way they envision. Maybe it works out well...If so good for them.

More so just making conversation..

I actually had been wondering about this possibility myself, so I'm glad Cafardo addressed it (and you posted it).

I wonder if Theo would pull the trigger on this deal. Reminds me a bit of the Beckett/Lowell for Sanchez/Ramirez trade, but that trade went down when the Sox GM was on his "sabbatical." Starting pitching is not a main need of Boston's right now, but on the other hand, if you have the chance to get a 27-year old ace, it's hard not to take it.

On the other hand, Peavy does give up a fair number of fly balls, which might be problematic in Fenway. His home-road splits on homers are telling (103 games at home, 47 homers; 96 games away, 81 homers). But his K/9 and K/BB are still impressive enough that I'd love to see him in my hometown team's uni.

Given Boston's financial resources, though, I'd prefer he just cost money -- not prospects. As others have pointed out, the Red Sox need their prospects to get a catcher.

"Here are the main hurdles that the Padres and sox are going to have to jump over and that will ultimately kill the deal:

1. Towers is going to want Buchholz, Lowrie and prob one other pitching prospect (mid level nothing special)
2. Peavy is going to want a full NTC (which I don’t think Boston gives out do they?)
3. Peavy is going to want a pay increase since he took a San Diego discount and is moving to the AL and what is considered to be a hitters park.

Here’s why I don’t think it will work out, since Peavy will demand a pay increase and/or for the sox to pick up his $22 mil option I don’t think the sox would be willing to give up such a large package for him, also I think that not giving him a full NTC would be a deal breaker as well.

At this point I think unless the Angles put together a great package for him Peavy will remain a Padres until the trade deadline and be shopped to a contender who has had a few pitching injuries and is desperate for an Ace…by that point the Padres will be way out of it and Peavy will be desperate to jump ship and will lessen his demands."

This is probably a fair assessment. If Peavy asks for a new contract, it clearly becomes a lot. But even with the option picked up, Peavy's contract still averages out cheap compared to the Sabathias of this world. You have to factor in the prospects you're giving up, but you also have to wonder how much they're really going to contribute anyways. The Red Sox are geared to win now, and they have loads of prospects coming up. The can actually afford to lose 2-3 prospects without it being devastating.

"Not going to happen, Peavy is afraid to pitch in the AL, especially in the AL East."

Wow, You've been following this closely. Out of the 3 AL teams Peavy would accept a trade to, 2 are in the AL East. He's definitely petrified.

I dont really think picking up his option will be any major step towards getting him to waive his NTC as 22m is probably one years worth of current market value for the guy. I would have to think he'll want more money tagged on to each year or extra years added at the end.

"Screw giving Towers 5 prospects"

I don't think Towers really cares about numbers. The Cubs proposal featured many players because the only blue chip prospect included was Vitters. If Boston makes on offer of 2 true blue chip prospects (out of which one has to be a pitcher) and maybe one more average piece, it's a done deal.

"You'd have to see how Peavy would adjust to the AL, the AL East, and most importantly, the hitter's park that is Fenway."

Historically, not very well. His interleague numbers are historically pedestrian. Heck, his splits outside of Petco are rather mortal in general.

"Maybe this will setup a 3 way deal with the Rangers, Padres and Red Sox.

Rangers send Salty to Boston, Max Ramirez and a pitching prospect (not named Holland or Feliz) to San Diego. Ranger can use the extra cash in an offer to Sheets.

Boston sends Buchholz, Lowell and money to Rangers, and the sends Bowden and Lowrie to San Diego.

San Diego sends Peavy to Boston. Peavy negotiates a larger contract."

That's a lose-lose-lose trade. Sure, the Sox get Peavy, but they lose their top two pitching prospects and next year's starting short stop, with nothing left of immediate value in the minors to step in for pitching depth.

The Rangers pretty much eliminate their catching. All they'd have left is Teagarden, whose injury history and bat are both questionable. They're also not giving up their pitching prospects. That's their weakest area.

The Padres don't get anything of significant value back. They get a mid-tier pitching prospect and Texas' least valued catching prospect from Texas and a number three starter and a defensively average short stop whose bat would be non-existent in a place like Petco.

Nobody would benefit from that deal.

tomfromsd, so what you're saying essentially is if the Yanks (hypothetically) were to offer (2) Hughes and Jackson its a done deal? I mean they are two of the more respected prospects in the league.

Don't see that happening with any team.

Towers is using Peavy as his 'I am going to fill 6 spots with this trade' This remains to be the problem it seems...

"Outside of trading Karstens and Tabata a few months ago, the Yankee's have given nothing of real value from their farm system to date."

The Yanks will lose a few draft picks for signing CC and AJ won't they?

Likewise if the Sox sign Teixeira.

Interleague splits = small. sample. size. Stop invoking them.

Example: Tim Hudson's interleague stats since his trade to the Braves are really, really bad. Like, 1-11 with an ERA over 5 or something.

However, as we all know, he dominated the AL for several years.

Any chance the Sox would deal JD Drew to the Cubs to free up salary to sign Tex? He would be exactly what the Cubs are looking for as a LH right fielder...

Adunc, Id think that would be quite a contract to move, especially to a team who's ownership is in flux. Its possible though.

Way up there it was said if Peavy and Tex sign with the BoSox then the Yankees would def up their offer for Manny...

It's more like the Yankees would throw 30 million a year at him and Sign Pettite and Sheets....

ECT,

I looked, and its *only* 3/42 left, and the last 14 mil could be defferred from what Cotts says...

Thats probably what Abreu is going to end up at, no? If the Cubs could entertain Peavy and his 63 mil, I'm sure they could pull that off.

Somehow I get the feeling if Boston thought so high of Texas catchers they would have made deal by now. Avoided Varitek situation, and moved on to something else.
I have to tell you the most ridiculous scenario I keep hearing is trade for a catcher and sign Varitek to mentor him. If he is not major league ready just sign Varitek, keep prospects and move to our own minor leaguers. You may not believe this but not all our guys are bad.

I think if they were comfortable with what Abreu was after, he'd be a Cub already. I guess its really too hard to have an opinion on what they can afford.

Also, I think that while the peavy talks were ongoing they were grumblings of them trying to move marquis to clear payroll...havent heard much since then.

If the Padres insist on both Bucholz and Bowden, Theo will NEVER go for it. He might go for:
- Bucholz or Bowden
- Pauley or Zink
- Bailey, Carter, or Van Every
- Some single-A guy

I think Theo is too good of a GM to leverage the farm in order to improve something that's already a strength.

Thanks tomfromsd,
I have been trying to say this all along.

""I'd rather take 2 stud prospects that have the chance to be great rather than a handful of replacement-level players."

I think that's actually very much in line with Towers' thinking"

Problem is, no one is willing to give up two stud prospects thus far. Atlanta had two, and neither were made available. Yunel has definite value, but the next best thing in that package was G Hernandez, and I'm not sure I would consider him a stud prospect either. The Cubs were offering one stud prospect, but none of the others were in that category. I seriously doubt that now Boston is going to turn around and give up two Studs.

"I seriously doubt that now Boston is going to turn around and give up two Studs."

Maybe not, but any team willing to do it beats the rest. It depends how much you really want Jake. That's the beauty for teams still interested. Towers hasn't really received a "blow me away" offer yet, and the best he's received is still very beatable. The price is still relatively low, in a way.

Tubby Cafardo reaching to get an article to print? NO WAY, that's never happened. There's nothing but speculation, which is usual with him.

There are 3 guys I like too on the Sox farm who I feel will never get there chance unless they are moved to a team that has the openings.
Aaron Bates, Zach Daegas, Jeff Corsaletti.
These are not minimum prospects either.

"He's ctually been quoted several times saying he'll take quality over quantity any day."

I said Towers is unrealistically looking for BOTH. That's what I meant by quality AND quality.

Quantity+Quality like: Buchholz+Bowden+Anderson+Bard+Reddick+Kalish

Not just quantity like:
Bailey+Pauley+Zink+Van Every+Natale+Bell

"Insist on Buch"

I really think you are overestimating how valuable Bucky is to the Sox future plans. He is a solid three or four guy at best. If it takes no more than Bucky and a couple of other prospects to get Peavy in Boston then I'd say it's as good as done. Not that I think that's it. I don't honestly see Peavy going to Boston. But if all it would take is Bucholz and maybe a coulpe of other top prospects then I have to say that it would shock me if Theo passes up the best starter that has been on the market this year. And yes, I do think Peavy is better than Sabathia.

Johns: "Cubs have no payroll flexability and nothing the Red Sox need either."

The Cubs have something the Red Sox need more than anything else in the world. A good young catcher. Not that it would ever happen.

"Smoltz, Maddux, and Glavine"...

You go right ahead then pal. Then when it comes time for the playoffs, watch 'em choke.

I grew up watching those three lose when it mattered most, so you can have them.

Smoltz could handle the big games.

Glavine and maddux? Not so much.

And this is coming from one of the biggest Maddux fans alive too. I mean that.

But if i had to pin my hopes on one guy to start in the big game, I'll take Beckett every single time. I know he's been up and down since leaving Florida, but there isn't a better "Big Game" pitcher in baseball today.

You put a guy like Peavy, who has yet to play on a team that could give him run support, a young lefty with a hell of a future like Lester, and a guy who has his best MLB years ahead of him like Dice K, and you have, in my humble opinion, a rotation that is hands down better than anything we have seen in a long time.

And yes, even better than the Braves of the '90s.

"I don't think Cashman or Theo will either...especially since Cash swears he isn't abandoning his "build from within" philosophy."

We'll see. Both of them have expressed interest though. So have the Angels. Someone could still bite.

BTW, what I meant by low was not that Peavy would come cheap overall. But his contract is reasonable and teams could conceivably make an offer that would trump anything proposed so far quite easily without depleting a farm.

Butit'll be expensive overall. Aren't all quality players expensive? Ask Boras.

if im theo, i offer

Buchholz, Anderson, Reddick, Kotteras and stop

anything more wouldnt make to much sense from the sox side since peavy isnt exactly making it easy to be trade for the padres.

"Thanks"....

It's hard to tell if you are being genuine or just being a smartass since I can only read what you post. But if you're being serious, then thanks. If not- blow me. LOL.

I just don't get why the price on CC was so damn high. I understand what he did last year was great. And I don't dislike the guy either. In fact, I think he's a hell of a nice guy and is down to Earth in a way that is always welcome in the high stakes world of overpaid and pampered stars who play a childs game for millions of dollars a year. But still. I just don't get why he was considered to be worth the biggest payday ever for a SP. It maks no sense to me at all.

"But if i had to pin my hopes on one guy to start in the big game, I'll take Beckett every single time. I know he's been up and down since leaving Florida, but there isn't a better "Big Game" pitcher in baseball today."

Beckett has to be heatlhy. Dice-K has his best years ahead of him? We'll see about that...I'm not saying he won't, but I'm not totally convinced.

You can have that rotation, I'll take 3 sure hall of famers any day. They didn't have the offense that Boston does/did.

We get it americans1901, you don't like Peavy. Despite what you tthink, a lot of people in the baseball world respect him. You might want to get used to it.

"Don't have the balls"....

You obviously don't watch much baseball outside of your own team. Peavy is the definition of "balls". The fact that he doesn't want to play in the Al has nothing at all to do with the myth that the hitters in the AL are better han those in the NL. Go ask the Tigers, Yankees, and Rays about how much better the AL bats are than the NL. Peavy is a gamer. He loves to play baseball, not just pitch and then go hide like SPs do in the AL. He wants to hit and run the bases too. And he's pretty damn good at both of those for a pitcher. The reason Peavy wants nothing to do with the AL is because he has too much "balls", not that he doesn't have enough.

"Buchholz, Anderson, Reddick, Kotteras and stop"

I think Towers would kick his secretary in the face if he got this offer.

They would be landing a pretty much MLB-ready potential ace (who could be freaking terrifying in Petco), arguably the best 1B prospect in baseball and a total stud with the bat in Anderson, a great OF prospect that projects to play center with both plus speed and plus power, and a potential option at catcher that is basically identical to Nick Hundley.

If the Padres could land Buchholz, Anderson AND Reddick in the same deal, they'd be giddy as hell.

That'd be like landing Hanson, Freeman, Hernandez and Sammons from Atlanta. Would they offer that? Obviously not..

I think the Red Sox would keep Anderson offlimits, because they need an elite power guy to replace Ortiz eventually, unless they sign Tex. Either way, the Pads likely wouldn't want Anderson that much anyways considering they have Adrian Gonzalez AND Kyle Blanks in AA.

I would expect San Diego to go hard after Buchholz, and then additional some pitcher/outfielder combination, and a fourth prospect. Basically for the OF/P combo, if the pitcher is Bowden or Masterson, then the outfielder can't be Reddick, and would likely be Kalish instead.

So..

Peavy for Buchholz, Bowden, Kalish and a low level prospect.

or..

Peavy for Buchholz, Reddick, Bard and a low level prospect.

"Because he's 28"....

I honestly don't dislike CC. And I understand why people think he'll be a good pitcher beyond this past season. But we are talking about a guy who tips the scales at over 300 pounds! How long do you honestly think he's going to stay healthy? Sure, his mechanics are sound and you can, on paper, justify sending him out there for 225+ innings a year and expect his arm to hold up. But what about his legs? What about his back? I'm not trying to argue that CC isn't a good pitcher. I'm not even saying he's not a great pitcher. But for the amount of money he's demanded I would expect more. I honestly don't think the guy will be a true "Ace" for more than maybe 2 more years before he begins to break down. It's not that I dislike the guy, I just know that anyone his size is going to have injury issues and so I feel he's not worth so much money. We'll see. I don't dislike the Yankees either. I just think they made a bad move with this one. No matter what Peavy might have said about staying in the NL, he is only human and with sort of cash the Yankees have to throw around I don't understand why they passed on peavy for Sabathia.

"He isn't Santana"...

Nobody really knows how great Peavy could be with a decnt team behind him. I think he's one of the best four or five guys out there and that he is every bit as good as Santana.

"Isn't Santana"...

What's your problem with Peavy?

He's every bit as good as Santana.

But don't get me wrong, if they get Peavy I'm still good. GO SOX!

"Stay in PETCO"....

Do you even KNOW who Peavy is?

While his ERA is better at home than on the road (most pitchers are better at home anyway), a 3.80 ERA on the road is still among the best in baseball. To me Peavy is todays Nolan Ryan, a great pitcher stuck on a really bad team. But to try and say that his game is simply the result of the park he calls home is just dumb. How many times have you ever even seen the guy pitch? He's a killer! He's right up thee with the best in the game. What's your problem with him? Is it that he talks to himself on the mound? That he runs his mouth? Well, when you play for a team as bad as the Padres you have to find some sort of release for your anger. Peavy is a true frontline "Ace" on any team in the game. Period.

He lost to Yankees a few years back 1-0 in NY, I dont go by parks at all. GM'S who think this way should not be GM'S.

*Delmon young. He's coming off a pretty poor season and I've heard the twins GM would certainly entertain the thought.

"interlague play"....

Using interleague "stats" is a joke. They are useless.

First off the sample size is way to small to try and make any reliable predictions with.

Secondly, just ask Chipper Jones about the scheduling issues in interleague play. When one team gets to play teams like the Reds, Royals, and Giants while another ends up playing teams like the Red Sox, Angels, and Cubs you can hardly call the resulting stats reliable.

And finally, the most obvious stat of all that proves just how useless interleague numbers are is the near even split between the two leagues in World Series play sinc 2000. With the exception of the Red Sox winning twice, the numbers are dead even.

As an objective observer who has seen a lot of Sabathia, Beckett and Santana, let me tell you: Jake Peavy is better than all those guys. He's closer to Pedro Martinez when the Sox got him from the Expos. Actually- he pitches a lot like Pedro, so thats a solid comparison. If Jake Peavy isn't the best pitcher in baseball, he's definitely top 3.

This is coming from a Phillies fan. Let me put it in perspective: Jake Peavy is a lot better than Cole Hamels. Cole just won us a World Series, and I'm saying Peavy is much better.

Peavy would immediately become the #1 on any rotation in the AL East. Anyone who doesn't want him doesn't know what they're talking about.